Psychology of Judgment & Decision Making:

Future Directions

Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making

Instructor: John Miyamoto 12/10/2015: Lecture 11-2

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2Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15

Outline

• Reminder re Psych 466 course evaluation.

• Books that are related to this course

• Courses that are related to this course

• Hot topics in decision science

Decision Analysis – What Is It?

Course Evals

• Students will be contacted by email from UW Office of Educational Assessment.

• Contact will be Monday at midnight, i.e., any time on Monday. Will stay open for 4 days.

• Please fill out form.

• If students have computer in class, fill it out now.

Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 3Decision Analysis - What Is It?

Decision Analysis – What Is It?

• Central question of decision analysis: How can we best make decisions in real situations?

♦ Decision analysis tends to have a practical focus, although it pays attention to theoretical and experimental work in economics, engineering and psychology.

♦ Taught in business schools and engineering departments, although relevant courses are also taught in public health schools, law schools, psychology departments.

• Technical field♦ Decision trees, influence diagrams

♦ Cost/utility analysis (related to cost/benefit analysis)

Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 4Decision Analysis Books

5Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15

Decision Analysis Books

Clemen, E. T., & Reilly, T. (2001). Making hard decisions. Pacific Grove,

CA: Duxbury Press.

Keeney, R. L. (1992). Value focused thinking: A path to creative

decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1993). Decisions with multiple objectives.

Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.

von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral

research. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Alemi, F., & Gustafson, D. (2006). Decision Analysis for Healthcare

Managers. Chicago, IL: Health Administration Press.

Weinstein, M. C., Fineberg, H. V., Elstein, A. S., Frazier, H. S., Neuhauser, D.,

Neutra, R. R., & McNeil, B. J. (1980). Clinical decision analysis.

Philadelphia, PA: W. B. Saunders.

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6Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15

Decision Analysis Books

Clemen, E. T., & Reilly, T. (2001). Making hard decisions. Pacific Grove, CA:

Duxbury Press.

Keeney, R. L. (1992). Value focused thinking: A path to creative

decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1993). Decisions with multiple objectives.

Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.

von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral

research. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Alemi, F., & Gustafson, D. (2006). Decision Analysis for Healthcare

Managers. Chicago, IL: Health Administration Press.

Weinstein, M. C., Fineberg, H. V., Elstein, A. S., Frazier, H. S., Neuhauser, D.,

Neutra, R. R., & McNeil, B. J. (1980). Clinical decision analysis.

Philadelphia, PA: W. B. Saunders.

Main Questions of Judgment & Decision Making

Main Questions of Judgment and Decision Making

• What cognitive processes produce people’s judgments and decisions?

• How do different situations and contexts influence judgment and decision processes?

• What do we think will make us happy or give us satisfaction?What actually makes us happy or gives us satisfaction?

• What are the neurological mechanisms that allow us to make judgments and decisions?

Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 7Judgment & Decision Making Books

8Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15

Judgment & Decision Making Books - Main List

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. (Eds.) (2002). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. & the ABC research group. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press.

Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., & Pachur, T. (2011). Heuristics: The foundations of adaptive behavior. New York: Oxford University Press.

JDM Books (continued)

9Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15

Judgment & Decision Making Books - Useful & Interesting

Ariely, D. (2010). Predictably irrational: The hidden forces that shape our decision. New York: Harper/Collins.

Ariely, D. (2010). The upside of irrationality: The unexpected benefits of defying logic at work and at home. New York: Harper Collins.

Chapman, G. B., & Sonnenberg, F. (2000). Decision making in health care: Theory, psychology, and applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Gilbert, D. T. (2006). Stumbling on happiness. New York: Knopf.

Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (Eds.) (2004). Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Oxford: Blackwell.

Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Stanovich, K. E. (2009). Decision making and rationality in the modern world. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Related UW Courses

10Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15

UW Courses

• PSYCH 445 Theories of Social Psychology

• PSYCH 462 Human Memory

• PSYCH 469 Psychology of Reasoning

• PSYCH 471 Applied Issues in Cognition

Hot Topics

11Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15

Hot Topics Today

• Behavioral economics

• Neuroeconomics

Neural decision making

• Psychology of happiness

Best of Luck

12Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15

Best of Luck

Exit Discussion - END

Class Discussion

• Go around the class. Each student reports what are their plans for the near and more distant future.

♦ Grad students – Does JDM fit into their research and career plans.

♦ Undergrads – what next?

Psych 466, Miyamoto, Autumn 2012 13END