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8/8/2019 PSQR-Q2-2010
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Dear PSQR Investor:
Second quarter performance was positive, as the markets began to acknowledge the weak underpinnings
to the US and global economy, yielding gains for our short position in the S&P 500.
PSQR Master Fund Ltd. Net RoR1 S&P 500 HFRI Macro CSFB/Tremont Macro
April-10 -0.66% 1.48% 0.81% 1.65%
May-10 1.05% -8.20% -1.61% -0.63%
June-10 1.51% -5.39% -0.23% n/a
2010-Q2 1.90% -11.86% -1.71% n/a
2010-Q1 -4.96% 4.87% 0.44% 2.57%
2010-H1 -3.16% -7.57% -1.28% n/a
The sharp drop in US equities the last week of June, and the similarly sharp rally early this month,
evidence two interrelated factors: Investors showed dwindling confidence in the rally engineered over the
past year and a half by massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, while at the same time could not ignore therecovery in corporate earnings that was largely the result of that monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as
inventory restocking and margin expansion due to one-off expense cuts.
As governments may yet choose to intervene again in extraordinary ways in order to postpone further the
day of reckoning for unsustainable structural problems and flawed past policies, investors are caught
between risk to the upside as well as to the downside. Realizing that the positives are largelyunsustainable, though, they stay ready to bolt for the exits at any moment. The result is a particularly
treacherous and volatile market.
Although earnings may prop up the market for a short while longer, I remain convinced that the party has
come to an end and equities will retrace further.
I have concluded, however, that we need more flexibility in our trading strategy in order to improve
performance.
Since founding PSQR, Ive been operating under a guideline of putting on positions only where I saw
short term opportunity that matched my longer term view. This was intended to generate higher-
conviction trades. While it worked well for a time, it has meant ignoring sometimes significantopportunities when our research identified a shorter-term trend running counter to our longer term
expectation.
1The past performance of PSQR Master Fund Ltd. described herein, reflects performance net of management fees and expenses and should not
be construed as an indicator of future performance since, among other factors, there may be differences in economic conditions, investment style
and other important factors affecting the future operation of the Fund. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The
index information is included merely to show the general trend in the relevant markets in the period indicated and is not intended to imply that the
Funds portfolio was similar to any index in composition or element of risk.
!!
!
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PSQR Capital Management, 2010. Strictly Confidential.
So, for example, given my view that increasingly dismal US government finances will ultimatelyundermine Treasuries, I did not play the flight to safety rally occasioned by the European crisis, instead
mostly staying on the sidelines in that market.
Starting August 1st, consistent with the disclosures in our offering memorandums, we may now go long or
short regardless of our long-term view. In the context of our current views, this means that we will no
longer be limited to being only short US equities and government debt and being only long commoditiesand currencies other than the US dollar. We also may buy or sell options.
In addition, I have determined that our ongoing quantitative work has brought us to a point where we can
begin to deploy a systematic trading complement to our discretionary strategy. At this time, we anticipate
a maximum risk exposure from systematic trading of one-tenth of asset class gross exposure limits. Thecombined exposure from systematic and discretionary trading will be subject to the existing limits. Our
aim is to generate additional returns via mean-reverting strategies.
These changes do not reflect a shift in our core views (see below on the US economy). We still expect toprofit from major market breaks, while adapting and adding tools in order to be more nimble and
opportunistic.
Portfolio
-1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00%
COMMODITY
EQUITY
FIXED INCOME
FX
PSQR Q2 2010 ASSET CLASS PROFIT
ATTRIBUTION
PSQR ASSET CLASS AVERAGE GROSS
EXPOSURE
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
COMMODITY
EQUITY
FIXED INCOME
FX
2010-Q1 2010-Q2
PSQR Q2 2010 VaR (1 DAY, 95% CONFIDENCE)
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
1-Ap
r-10
8-Ap
r-10
15-Apr
-10
22-Apr
-10
29-Apr
-10
6-Ma
y-10
13-May
-10
20-May
-10
27-May
-10
3-Jun-10
10-Jun-10
17-Jun-10
24-Jun-10
The US Economy
In the July 9 issue of Goldman Sachss US Economics Analyst, Jan Hatzius, the firms chief US
economist, sums up the situation as follows:
[Why] have US growth and employment been so weak since 2007? At the simplest level, our
answer is that the different sectors of the economy are collectively trying to reduce their debt burden
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3
PSQR Capital Management, 2010. Strictly Confidential.
and to run a financial surplus. But as a matter of accounting, the private sector surplus must equal the
public sector deficit (at least globally). If government policymakers do not accept this and try to reduce
the budget deficit, the result is a shortfall of aggregate demand.
[Both] fiscal and monetary policy can help the economy in principle, but both are subject to significant
limits. At a time when many people are trying to cut back in their personal lives, it is difficult to persuade
the public that driving up the deficit is a good ideaeven though it actually is a good idea, in our view,especially if combined with a clearer plan for long-term consolidation .
Meanwhile, the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on its ability to persuade the private sector to
run a smaller financial surplus, which may be limited in the current environment. In addition, of course,
the options for the Fed to boost growth have narrowed sharply with the funds rate near the zero bound.
The upshot is that the forces weighing on aggregate demand growth look formidable. Policymakers can
provide some relief but, realistically, will find it hard to neutralize the headwinds altogether. Thus, the
risks to growth over the medium term tilt decidedly to the downside.
I agree with Jans assessment. Since the 70s, and most sharply since 2001, the US labor forces share of
the economic pie shrank dramatically. The combination of technological advances and free tradesuppressed the purchasing power of an ever increasing proportion of American workers. As the following
chart shows, compensation of employees as a percentage of GDP declined from approximately 58% in
2001 to approximately 53% in the first quarter of 2010. The increase in household borrowings, from a
range of 2.5%5% of GDP in the 90s to approximately 7.5%10% in 2002-2006, masked the economic
and social consequences of this shift in income distribution.
From an economic perspective, stagnant employee compensation would have resulted in stagnant demand
and stagnant GDP if not for the addedprivate borrowing.
Remember, consumer spending is
70% of the US economy.
Given quite significant multiplier
effects in a high-consumption
economy, the internet bubbles bust
would have resulted in zero or
negative growth for some time, had it
not been for the debt-bubble
solution engineered by the Fed.While this avoided widespread
personal hardships that would have
generated significant popular anger
and perhaps forced major political, if
not institutional changes, thisexpedient bought only a few years
respite before crashing to a halt in
2008, when not only compensation of
employees continued to decline but
household borrowings turnednegative. *+#,-./!0#,.1#!+2!3-+4+56-!741$%8689!:.;.,1$!
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4
PSQR Capital Management, 2010. Strictly Confidential.
The policy choices that helped spurthe debt bubble (primarily the Fed
keeping rates too low for too long,
as well as permitting irresponsible,
unbridled lending and securitization)
concealed the inconvenient twin
realities of uncompetitiveness andgaping distributional imbalances.
Postponing the political resolution
of the problem has only caused it to
get bigger. Unfortunately, the USgovernment is continuing to dig the
hole deeper, now with a coarser,
less-efficient version that uses
sovereign borrowing in place of
private debt to fill the demand
deficit created by the labor forces
ongoing income decline.
But four quarters into the recovery from
the worst economic downturn since the
Great Depression, workers pay still lags,
as you can see from this chart.
50.0%
52.5%
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
Comp & Borrowing (LHS) Fed Gov't Borrowing (RHS)
-#$."/%%+!"#$+:+2"3'%4".5+6"77"8*&9+01+;%5+
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5
PSQR Capital Management, 2010. Strictly Confidential.
Even taking into account the boost tospending power from private borrowing,
the decline continues.
So the government has stepped into the
gap, borrowing at extraordinary levels.
It may be true that, at least until the next election, ordinary people have no choice but to incur their share
of incremental government debt. However, while some feel that the economy has stabilized and can only
go up and all the faster because it is rebounding from such a low level the reality is that the
exceptional amount of government borrowing has failed to add up to final demand sufficient to spur
economic activity to anything approaching the cyclical upswings typical of post-war recoveries, as the
following chart shows.
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
(8) (4) - 4 8
Current RecessionAverage
+5?!+2!35?$+%..8!A$#8!B+#8.C+$;!0+,,+D64E
Current v. average of previous post-war recessions indexed level by quarter
*+#,-./!0#,.1#!+2!3-+4+56-!741$%8689!:.;.,1$!
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