PS21 Insight What will the new Suez Canal mean for Egypt? New Suez Canal project likely wont have as many economy benefts as hoped Instead, its been called a vanity project or Sisis administration !espite doubts, it likely doesnt represent a threat to "#yptian national security $hat it could do is restore confdence o orei#n investorsLast hurs!ay" Egyptian Presi!ent #$!el %attah al&Sisi o'(ially !e!i(ate! what many are (alling the new Suez Canal" an e)pansion that will run parallel to the original (anal* In a!!ition to allowing for more tra'( to pass through an! re!u(ing ships waiting times" Sisi (laims the new (anal will grow the (ountrys e(onomy e)ponentially*Sin(e it was announ(e! last year" howe+er" the plan has fa(e! (onsi!era$le (riti(ism* his type of large&s(ale national pro,e(t alone" (riti(s argue" is not enough to pull Egypt out of the e(onomi( (risis that has plague! the (ountry sin(e its re+olution in 2-11* #!!itionally" it (oul! wea.en national se(urity*%elow are some early conclusions rom a selection o &S'( contributors) I youd liketo contact any o them directly, please email ps'(central*#mail)com) /a+i! 0artwell1 ormer %ritish +inistry o !eence o,cial, now editor o +iddle "ast Insider)#mr Ismail1 writer and commentator specializin# in +iddle "ast a-airs)here are fears that the new (anal (oul! hurt national se(urity" whi(h the Egyptian go+ernment has re$u2e!* hese (on(erns (oul! $e unfoun!e!" $ut with the (ountry (urrently 3ghting ISIS on the Sinai $or!er" it seems unwise to ignore them (ompletely*0artwell1 $hether the e.panded canal now/ represents an enhanced security threat to "#ypt is/ an issue) 0he "#yptian army is o course currently in the midst o battlin# Islamic State1a,liated militants in the Sinai &eninsula) Since '2(( they have been loosely linked to very sporadic low1level attacks on the canal 3 mainly in the orm o rocket1propelled1#renades launched in the direction passin# shippin#) 0he canal zone is e-ectively a closed military area with hei#htened security measures that have deterred any potential attempt to close the canal or dama#e shippin# and there is little reason to su##est that these will not continue to deter attacks in the uture) 4reas o concern in the uture thou#h mi#ht be the planned new tunnels under the canal linkin# the Sinai to the rest o the Nile delta) 0hese could become tar#ets in themselves or conduits or terrorist infltration in the uture,althou#h this has likely been wei#hed by the "#yptian security orces as a threat that can either be mana#ed or deterred)he go+ernment has also&&somewhat am$itiously&&pro,e(te! high e(onomi(growth as a result of the new (anal" whi(h is unli.ely* 4ost agree that the pro,e(t will a2e(t the e(onomy" $ut ,ust what the impa(t will $e is still un(lear*0artwell1 0he newly constructed stretch o canal will o,cially open on 5 4u#ust yetthe e.tent o its economic beneft to the "#yptian economy remain unclear) $hile the Suez Canal 4uthority and "#yptian 4rmy who have overseen the project confdently predict that annual revenues will more than double rom 6S78 billion to 6S7(' billion, others e.perts are more circumspect, su##estin# that tra,c may not reach the numbers projected until perhaps a decade in the uture, su##estin# that, at least in the short term, the new project will stru##le to proftable) 0hese ears echo concerns by numerous shippin# e.perts who have also 9uestioned whether the project is economically justifed based on #lobal shippin# tra,c trends)Ismail1 4lthou#h the project #ives indication that "#yptian #overnment is committed to develop the economy which :has; su-ered a lot since '2((, problems like corruption and poverty still need more than a ISIS? militants :on the; Sinai1@aza border, and acin#/ political instability and terrorism rom nei#hbor countries)0artwell1 :0he; economic concerns/ underestimate the e.tent to which the projectis as much a presti#e political venture desi#ned to bolster the domestic ima#e o &resident 4bdel Aattah el1Sisi as it is a project #rounded in economic certainties) 0hat said, as well as reBectin# political kudos on "#ypts new rulers, the scheme hasnevertheless been desi#ned to inject confdence into the economy and convince $estern investors that the "#yptian economy is bouncin# back rom years in the doldrums as a result o the prolon#ed political instability in the country) $hile the scheme appears to have helped Sisi consolidate his hold on power, whether it achieves the latter aim o restorin# investor confdence remains to be seen)