PS21 Insight: US-Turkey plan to fght ISIS has signifcant faws Plan serves US and Turkish national interests at the expense of Syrians Without a common goal, will be impossible for the two countries to work together efectively Turkeys focus is on !ghting the P"", not #S#S US critici$ed for going easy on %ashar al &sadLast week, Turkey an the US agree on a plan to train an strengthen Syrian opposition !orces fghting the Isla"ic State# The plan en$isions %"erican, Syrian an Turkish !orces working together to ri$e IS !orces away !ro" the Syrian-Turkish &orer an create an 'IS-!ree( )one in northern Syria#%elow are some early conclusions from members and contributors of the Pro'ect for Study of the ()st *entury +PS(),- #f you wish to contact any of them directly, pleaseemail ps()central.gmail-com- Please credit PS() if you /uote from this report- *ontri&utors:

+ayat %l$i: Professor of 0iddle 1ast studies, US 2aval War *ollege, and PS() global fellow-,asha -lass3 'ournalist formerly based in Syria and PS() global fellow-.ilena ,o&an: independent geopolitical risk consultant and PS() global fellow-/stensi&ly, the eal will ena&le Syrian !orces to fght ISIS# 0ut there are ou&ts as to how e1ecti$e it will actually &e# ,o&an: The US4Turkey plans to train Syrians !rst came into play in 5ebruary, but the plans were repeatedly delayed, until earlier this summer, when the 'oint program started training !ghters in earnest- 6ecently, it became clear that the program has had an extremely limited success rate, due to high vetting standards- #t has yielded only about 78 !ghters, some of whom were promptly taken hostage by #S4a9liated groups- %l$i: The U-S- is in a pathetic state of afairs with regard to the training of the Syrianopposition, reaching only 78 5ree Syrian &rmy +5S&, !ghters so far: ;who are< all in a unit called =ivision >8:&nd, out of that 78, about ? of them got captured by the 2usra 5ront +&l @aeda in Syria,, and: were paraded in front of a camera in a 2usra video-This is a lot of egg on the U-S- face-Plus, there are countless reports of U-S- airstrikes in Syria resulting in civilian deaths-2ot a good thing for the US:#n recent days, (8A U-S-4trained 5S& !ghters B also in =ivision >8 44 have been kidnapped-Cne additional US4trained 5S& !ghter has been killed in !ghting in Syria-These facts are deterring others from 'oining the US training program-*ivilian deaths resulting from US airstrikes in Syria and #ra/ number DE8A-So"e ha$e also sai that the plan is "ore a&out ser$ing %"erican an Turkish interests than fghting ISIS, arguing that it gi$es Turkey an e2cuse to re-ignite its war against the P33 an the US to en"esh itsel! !urther in the Syrian ci$il war#-lass: #ts shortsighted because it lacks a common goal, let alone a long range one-Sure, Turkey and the US agree that the target for this move is #slamic State- %ut howwill this manifest on the ground when Turkey !nds that the "urds, who are a ma'or U-S- ally, are a threat to Turkish sovereigntyFThe US and Turkey also disagree on priorities, with the US focused primarily on !ghting #slamic State while Turkey continues to reiterate its stance that president %ashar al &ssad must goF With the US and Turkey at such odds, how long can their partnership continue before running into a ma'or glitchF%l$i: The U-S-4Turkey plan to !ght #S#S encompasses each countryGs respective national interests, which is to be expected-ThatGs what states do, they discern and strategi$e national interests-5or the U-S-, the primary focus is to go after #S#S, mainly because of the terror groupGs killings of westerners-The Syrian opposition has critici$ed this narrow focus, because it does nothing to go after &sad and the &sad regime, and thatGs even after Pres- Cbama has said that H&sad has to go-H5or Turkey, the primary focus is to ensure that the "urdish militants 44 inside #S#S as well as in the P"" 44 do not attack Turkey-That red line was broken when the P"" killed ( Turkish police o9cers last week-The fact that Turkey convened a special meeting with 2&TC indicates that Turkey wants its safety net3if things get way too out of hand with the Syrian war spillover into Turkey, then it has the option of invoking &rticle E collective defense of 2&TC members-That gives Turkey a sense of some security-&lso, the fact that 2orthern #ra/Gs "urdistan regional government called on the P"" to stop its attacks against Turkey is also an indication that the P"" is indeed provoking trouble in the region-Turkey has already carried out airstrikes against P"" camps in 2orthern #ra/-This is not something #ra/ wants, and it recogni$es the dangers of P"" provocation-,o&an: The primary problem with the US4Turkey plan: is that the countries have very diferent endgames- The US wants to support the "urds, whom Turkey sees as enemies +given their history with the P"", etc-,- Turkey continues to bomb more "urdIP"" camps than #S targets in its ongoing campaign against #S- The countries have had strikingly diferent attitudes towards #S, with Turkey only now really taking the !ght against the group more seriously, following attacks on TurkeyGs territory, but appearing more committed to using the campaign to strike the P"", which undermines US desires to hit more #S targets:0any remain wary of TurkeyGs commitment to beating #S4 they donGt believe Turkey will do all thatGs necessary to defeat the group- P"" leader *emil %ayik told the %%* that Turkish President 1rdogan is protecting #S because he wants #S to keep !ghting the P"", and stalling or rolling back "urdish gains +which Turkey sees as a threat,- This is not 'ust a P"" view- There is enough evidence to suggest Turkey sees the "urds as their primary enemy, with #S a distant second- While #S remains active, it keeps the attention of the "urds !rmly focused on !ghting the terror group, and not the Turkish government, which had been the P""Gs primary target- +2ote3 the H"urdsH should not be seen as a united or cohesive entity4 the SyrianI#ra/iITurkish "urdish groups are distinct, with diferent capabilities, goals, etc-, and some in the P"" are resistant to turning all of their attention away from !ghting the Turkish government- Jence recent shootouts with Turkish policeImilitarytargets-,:&llowing the US to launch drones and warplanes from Turkish bases: will make US strikes more efective since the proximity of Turkish bases, particularly #ncirlik, inthe SW of Turkey, since itGs only an hour away from #S targets in Syria, which will allow the drones and planes to spend more time hitting targets and less time traveling- While US airstrikes may successfully destroy more #S targets, Turkey is likely to continue focusing on striking P"" targets, making it less likely that this campaign will be as comprehensive and integrated as intended-4ith clashing interests, it certainly see"s that it will &e i5cult !or the USan Turkey to work together as outline &y the plan# The so-calle 'IS-!ree)one( is also a point o! contention#,o&an: =iscussion of a proposed Hsafe $oneH in northern Syria, bordering southernTurkey, seems to also have diferent purposes, depending on whether youGre talking to Turkish or &merican leaders- Turkey thinks the safe $one will allow refugees living in Turkey to start going home- The &mericans dispute that this is the main goal- With disagreements over such ma'or issues, it seems the battle plan is far from comprehensive and certainly not cohesive- -lass: &lthough no one is calling it a no4Ky $one, in efect that is what it is- %y default, Syrian warplanes do not intercept the same air space that the US4led coalition has been using to bombard #S- 2ow that a stretch of land has been designated by Turkey and the US as a safe $one for Syrians Keeing #S, it is highly unlikely that Syrian warplanes would breach this space- &ssad sees himself as a partner in the !ght on terrorism, and would therefore not want to be seen as interfering with these eforts- #ran, which arguably has greater say these days than &ssad does in Syrias military operations, is also now unlikely to throw a wrench in the US4Turkey plan-& no4Ky $one has long been called for by Syrian opposition and many humanitarian aid providers- 2ow that there is a de facto no4Ky $one, it might make sense to create more of them in other parts of Syria-4hile the US an Turkey ha$e co"peting interests, it will &e i5cult !or the" to trust each other in the war against the Isla"ic State# ,o&an: While TurkeyGs attention is split between the P"" and #S, the campaign is likely to have limited success- #n Turkey, public opinion supports the campaign against #S, and less support for focusing too much on the P"", especially following the deadly #S attacks on Turkish soil- Let there is still opposition to Turkish boots on the ground in Syria- The US will need to either !nd a way to refocus Turkey on the !ght against #S, which is unlikely unless #S strikes deep in the heart of Turkey and throws popular support overwhelmingly behind a campaign against the brutal group, or reali$e that the US does not really have an e/ual partner in this !ght- %l$i: &s long as the U-S- stays narrowly focused on attacking #S#S and 2usra 5ront inSyria, and does nothing substantive about bringing &sad and the &sad regime to 'ustice, public opinion in the region will not view U-S- intentions and actions as serious and sincere with regard to preventing I ending genocide-Turkey, which is the United StatesG partner in the !ght against #S#S and other elements in Syria, also shares that opinion of the U-S-That alone speaks volumes-