Prospects for international tourism

Project LINKUN DESA Expert Group Meeting

on the World Economy,NYC, USA

24-26 October 2011

John G.C. KesterProgramme Manager, Tourism

Trends and Marketing Strategies jkester@unwto.org

The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) and the leading international 

organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know‐how.

plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible,  sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the  interests of developing countries.

encourages the implementation of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its negative social and environmental impacts.

intergovernmental organization with membership includes 162 countries and territories and more than 400 Affiliate Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations and local tourism authorities.

committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared  toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development.

International tourist arrivals by purpose, 2008

Not specified7%

Business and

professional15%

VFR, Other27%

Leisure, recreation

and holidays51%

Tourism“comprises the activities of persons travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes”Forms and indicators:• same-day visitors and tourists (staying overnight at least one night)• international and domestic• inbound (destination) and outbound (origin)• several indicators possible: arrivals, trips, nights, receipts, expenditure• UNWTO 2 key indicators: ITA, ITR• all purposes except paid work in the destination

Tourism: concepts, forms and indicators

Source: Methodology UNWTO and United Nations, Recommendations on Tourism Statistics

Results 2010

International Tourist Arrivals940 million

+6.6%

International Tourism ReceiptsUS$ 919 billion (euro 693 bn)

+4.7% (real terms)

www.unwto.org/facts

International TourismInternational tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%)

International Tourism Receipts (ITR), 2010*US$ 918 billion

International Tourist Arrivals (ITA), 2010*940 million

AmericasITA: 150 million (16%)ITR: US$ 182 billion (20%)

AfricaITA: 49 million (5%)ITR:US$ 31 billion (3%)

EuropeITA: 477 million (51%)ITR: US$ 406 billion (44%)

Middle EastITA: 60 million (6%)ITR: US$ 50 bn (6%)

Asia and the PacificITA: 204 million (22%)ITR: US$ 249 billion (27%)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourist Arrivals (% change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-5.3

0.3

-5.3-0.9

10.5 13.1

4.29.0

0.3

-3.9

7.2 8.9 10.5 9.9

0.42.4

-10-505

1015

WorldNorthe

rn Europe

Western E

urope

Central/Eastern

E...Southern/Medite

r. Eu.

North-East A

siaSouth-East A

sia

OceaniaSouth Asia

North Americ

aCaribb

eanCentral America

South America

North Afric

aSubsaharan

Africa

Middle East

2010 compared to pre‐crisis peak year 2008

International Tourist Arrivals (absolute change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008, million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-3.2

0.5

-5.3 -1.5

10.6 8.10.5 0.9 0.1 -0.3 1.6 1.5 2.9 5.5

22.3

0.4

-10-505

1015202530

WorldNorthe

rn Europe

Western E

urope

Central/Eastern

E...Southern/Medite

r. Eu.

North-East A

siaSouth-East A

sia

OceaniaSouth Asia

North Americ

aCaribb

eanCentral America

South America

North Afric

aSubsaharan

Africa

Middle East

Inbound tourism: World 2010

International tourist arrivals and receipts, 1995‐2010*

528561

586 603625

675 674 683

753

798

842

898 917882

403437 436 443 457 476 466

485

533

634

679

743

857

940

852

694

940 mn

US$ 918 bn

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1995 2000 2005 2010*

International tourist arrivals (million)

International tourism receipts (US$ billion)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World

-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789

1011

'90/89

'91/90

'92/91

'93/92

'94/93

'95/94

'96/95

'97/96

'98/97

'99/98

'00/99

'01/00

'02/01

'03/02

'04/03

'05/04

'06/05

'07/06

'08/07

'09/08

'10*/0

9

% c

hang

e ov

er p

revi

ous

year

International tourist arrivalsInternational tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closelyAsian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower

11S, SARS, economic downturn:receipts more affected

‘Great recession’:receipts more affected and slower to recover

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US$

billio

n

International Tourism (BOP Travel & Passenger transport)FuelsChemicalsFoodAutomotive products

International tourism vs. other export categories

International tourism:30% of export of services

6% of exports of goods and services

Tourism as Generator of prosperity

Tourism as % of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

• World wide

• Advanced Diversified Economies

• Small Island Economies and Developing Economies

Approx. 5% of GDP

2-12 % of GDP

up to 40% of GDP

Results 2011

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011*

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

V‐shape decline of 15 consecutive months of 

negative growth 

+2.1% ‐3.8% +6.6% +4.5%

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2008200920102011*

2010: 940 mn

2009: 881 mn => 2010: +59 mn

2008: 916 mn => 2010: +24 mn

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Advanced economies & Emerging economies (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011*

Advanced economies

Emerging economies

10 months

16 months

Multi‐speed recovery

International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

35

3

1412

6

12

7

3 4

10

67

15

7

3

9 8

1

12

0

13

34 4

13

-15

7

-11

6.6

4.5

-16-14-12-10

-8-6-4-202468

10121416

WorldNort

hern E

urope

Western

Europe

Central/

Eastern

Europe

Souther

n/Medi

ter. Eu.

North-E

ast Asia

South-E

ast Asia

Oceania

South A

siaNort

h Americ

aCarib

bean

Central

America

South A

merica

North A

frica

Subsaha

ran Afric

aMidd

le East

10/09

11*/10 January - August

2010 and 2011 year to date by subregion

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Germany

United S

tates

China

United K

ingdom

France

Canada

Japan Ital

y

Russian

Federati

onAust

ralia

Saudi Arab

iaNeth

erlands

Belgium

Korea, R

epublic

of

Hong Kong

(Chin

a)Spai

nSing

apore

Brazil

Norway

Sweden

2010 2011 ytd

Major outbound markets

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World

Better

Equal

Worse

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

T1 T2'03

T3 T1 T2'04

T3 T1 T2'05

T3 T1 T2'06

T3 T1 T2'07

T3 T1 T2'08

T3 T1 T2'09

T3 T1 T2'10

T3 T1 T2'11

T3

Prospects

Evaluation

Outlook and evaluation 2003‐2011: World

V‐shape comparable to arrivals

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

UNWTO tourism business-cycle clock

Upswing May 2003 Boom

October 2011

Recession Downswing

Pros

pect

s co

min

g 4

mon

ths

Evaluation past 4 months

50

75

100

125

150

25 50 75 100 125 150 175

UNWTO tourism business-cycle clock

Outlook

2010 Forecast 2011

World +6.6% +4.0% to +4.5%

Europe +3.2% +5% to +6%

Asia and the Pacific +12.8% +5% to +6%

Americas +6.4% +4% to +5%

Africa +7.8% ‐2% to +1%

Middle East +14.8% ‐10% to ‐5%

International Tourism: Forecast 2011

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International tourist arrivals

8.0

‐0.1

3.0

‐1.6

10.3

5.4 5.56.6

‐3.8

6.6

2.1

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012*

Forecast 

2011: 4.0% to 4.5%

2012: 2% to 4%

Outlook: Worldchan

ge(%

)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Long-term trend

International tourist arrivals

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

million Tourism 2020 Vision forecast

Actual 1995‐2010*

881 mn

Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trendWorld

528 mn

940 mn

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Tourism Towards 2030

• A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s.

• Objectives:– Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans– Provide a global reference on tourism future development– Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects– Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and

activities• Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in

the two decades 2010-2030– Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are

used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010

– The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and also cost of transport

Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

3

0

0

1

9

4

3

9

7

6

7

0

9

3

44

6

5

3

4

8

0

3

-2

10

6 6

7

2

-4

7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29

International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

8

0

0

4

25

1310

3027

22

28

-2

39

15

21 20

33

26

16

22

49

-1

20

-11

70

45 45

56

20

-35

58

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 2030

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 2015

Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million

emerging economies

advanced economies

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals

Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million

Europe

Asia and the Pacific

Americas

Middle East

Africa

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares

Africa3%

Americas23%

Asia and the Pacific8%

Europe63%

Middle East3%

Middle East6%

Europe51%

Asia and the Pacific22%

Americas16%

Africa5%

Africa7%

Americas14%

Asia and the Pacific30%

Europe41%

Middle East8%

1980 (277 mn)

2010 (940 mn)

2030 (1.8 bn)

North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 2030

Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 100 of population

No major change in share by purpose of visit

International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million

Leisure, recreation and holidays

VFR, health, religion, other

Business and professional

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Air transport will continue to increasemarket share, but at a slower pace

International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million

by air

over surface

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region

International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %

within same region

between regions

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most

Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million

12

110 88

308

1030

160204

509

3790

265

541

832

81

6

169

2571

60

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East

1980 1995 2010 2030

Outbound tourism participation is highest in Europe and still low in Asia and the Pacific

Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

92

14

3

36

614

3

17

5

57

1722

6

24

12

89

25

61

12

1

21

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

World Africa Americas Asia and thePacific

Europe Middle East

1980 1995 2010 2030

What if assumptions change?

Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Actual data 1980-2010Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)Central projectionFaster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)

One-Page Tourism Towards 2030

• Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (1980–2020) to 3.3% (2010–2030), as a result of four factors:

– The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers– Lower GDP growth, as economies mature– A lower elasticity of travel to GDP– A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones

• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a substantial potential for further expansion in coming decades; established as well as new destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources• Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impactsLong-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive

Opportunities and challenges:how to make it possible

Five key areas that mark the future:

• For many countries tourism represent a powerful tool for social and economic development and the reduction of poverty through the creation of job and enterprises, infrastructure development and the export revenues earned• In order to tap this potential, it is essential to continue creating and raising awareness and to mainstream tourism in the political agenda• Sustainability (social, economic and environment) is more important than ever,addressing issues such as energy dependency, climate change adaptation and mitigation, green economy, congestion management and risk management• Keep track of the changing consumer: more experienced and demanding customers, demographic change (ageing, migration and diversification of family structure), changing values and lifestyles, from service economy to experience economy, etc. • Enhance competitiveness in sense of shaping an adequate business environment: innovation, diversification of products, markets and segments, product development, ICT and technology in general, marketing and promotion, research, evaluation, human resources development, quality, etc.

Where to find information prepared by UNWTO?www.unwto.org => Facts & Figures

publications www.unwto.org/pub• electronic:

=> UNWTO eLibrary• hardcopy:

=> UNWTO Infoshop=> depositary libraries

Affiliate Membership: www.unwto.org/edsco/index.php

Tourism towards 2030 /Global Overview

Thank you very much for your attention!

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org