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Frank Jamerson Ph.D.
General Motors Detroit Executive Retiree Club
Bloomfield Hills CC July 11, 2018
Prospects for Electric Vehicles:
Mandate or Market
Outline
• History
• EV Technology
• EVs / EBs Worldwide
• EV / EB Sales
• EV Mandate or Market
• Conclusion
Early History “The innovators today stand on the shoulders of
those who went before and who paved the way.”
1800 Allesandro Volta, Italy, battery (Zn-Cu)
1821 Michael Faraday, England, electric motor
1884 Thomas Edison, 1st Electric Power Plant, coal
fired, Manhattan NYC, lit 400 lamps, 1st electric
grid
1910 Detroit Electric EV USA
1911 Charles Kettering DELCO, self starter
replaced hand crank, first on 1912 Cadillac,
gas car sales surge, EVs fade
1947 Bell Labs-Transistor Nobel Laureate (1956)
John Bardeen, William Shockley, Walter Brattain-
Led to low cost powerful computers
1969 GM Progress of Power Show-EVs / batteries
1982 GMRL John Croat NdFeB rare earth magnet,
Magnequench™ motors smaller/lighter
1987 GM Sunraycer wins 1st 2,000m solar car race
1996-99 GM EV1 1st production EV
2010 GM Chevy Volt 1st Plug-in hybrid
2016 GM Chevy Bolt 1st 238m range EV $37,000
1997 Toyota Prius 1st production hybrid
2012 Tesla First $100,000+ EV
Recent History
Professor John Bardeen
At GMRL Dec 1984
Nobel Laureate twice
1956 Transistor Bell Labs
1972 BCS
Superconductivity Theory
Univ. of Illinois
His student, Nick Holonyak,
invented the LED in 1962
Lowell Thomas
National
newscaster Visits
GMRL 1960
Nuclear
thermionic energy
conversion project
FJ/Thomas/?
1969 General Motors Progress of Power Show
GM Tech Center Warren, Michigan
Demonstrated technology to
lower exhaust emissions:
electric/hybrid cars
Steam engine powered car
Stirling engine /electric hybrid car
gas turbine bus / fuel cell van
R&D batteries Nickel-zinc/Zinc-air/
Lithium-Chlorine batteries
CATALYTIC CONVERTER
+Gas engine selected
512 Urban Car Hybrid, Electric,
Gasoline
Electrovair (Corvair) EV
silver-zinc battery 40-80 mile range
1987 First World Solar Challenge-GM Sunraycer won 42mph 45hrs 5 days
Team led by Hughes Aircraft with AeroVironment & GM, Holden (2,000 miles Darwin to Adelaide)
World Solar Challenge runs every
2 years Univ. of Michigan won 6 times
UM also won American Solar
Challenge (alternate years) 9 times
Howard Wilson, Hughes Aircraft VP/leader of Sunraycer team,
convinced GM to build the Impact EV prototype with aero design.
Named EV1 in production 1996-1999 - 800 leased in CA/AZ only by Saturn
EV1 coupe (1,100 built) 137 hp
speed record 186mph TX Speedway
18 kWh lead acid 80-100 miles
26 kWh NiMH 100-140 miles
regenerative braking/novel heat pump
AC/inductive charger
EV1 at Crooked Lake MI EV1 at Ridgewood Dr. Pelican Bay
Batteries
1990s Lead-Acid/2000s Nickel Metal Hydride/Now Lithium
Watt-hour/kilogram L-A 40 / NMH 90 /Li Ion 150
EBs 500 Watt-hour range 20 to 50 miles/charge
EVs 60 to 75 kilowatt-hour range 238(B)-310(T3) miles/charge
Chevy 2018 Bolt
LG Chem Li prismatic (flat) battery in 90 groups
3 cells/group 3.74V/cell 337 Volts 960 lb Courtney Vance, actor, owns one,
WSJ 14Apr 2018 in My Tech Essentials
“No more gas. No more maintenance. It’s quick and
roomy inside. My kids love it. It’s perfection.”
Tesla S Battery 7,100 cells
Panasonic 18mm (0.7 inch) OD-650mm (2.5 inch)long
Tesla Interstate fast charge stations
150m apart 45min for 150m range
16,000 USA charge stations
With 43,000 plugs as of 2017
China 190,000 plans 800,000
Motor / Controller
Electric Motor drives wheels /
Power Electronics controls power & battery charge
Bolt: Rare Earth (MQ) Permanent
Magnet motor
200hp 266ft.lb. torque
2018 Chevy Volt
Plug-In Hybrid
Electric motor drive 100%
Gas Engine charges battery
53m EV range 420 mile total
Possible 1,000mpg
Li Ion 18.4kWh
Worldwide EVs
Tesla Model 3
200m/50kWh
310m/75kWh
BMW i3 114m
Ford Focus 115m
Nissan Leaf 150m
2019 Jaguar
i-Pace crossover
90kWh Li 298m
197hp motor fr & rear
2019 China EV/PIH GM Buick Velite
2019 China
Buick Enspire
EV SUV
370m range
Worldwide EBs
Aima Scooter Style EB China Klever Taiwan made EU sold
German Postal Service Cargo e-bike
Copenhagen wheel MIT design
GoCycle folder UK
Pedego US 41 N Naples-Comfort Cruiser William Shatner owns Trek MTB USA Bosch mid drive
STORY
Pedelec Adventures
Susanne Brüsch founder
Solar e-bike tours Sahara in Morocco /
Iceland / Mongolia / Africa / USA 10,000 miles
Mahindra GenZe e-scooter
Ann Arbor MI made
Scoot e-scooter rental
San Francisco CA
Uber buys Jump e-bike
company 10Apr2018
Jump lock / access pad
EBWR EB
Sales Estimates
Market Drivers
China-step up from pedal
bikes/ 250M on road/50% total sales
Europe-more profit from EBs
USA-1st China imports bad/
step down from cars tough/
sales momentum building now
Worldwide EV sales
USA EV Sales
2011 17,00
2012 53,000
2013 97,000
2014 122,000
2015 116,000
2016 159,000
2017 200,000
WW EV Sales
2014 321,000
2015 550,000
2016 777,000
2017 1,227,000
Total thru 2017
Bolt 24,000
Volt 134,000
Tesla S 120,000
China 2018 Q1 up 150%
EV 102,000 PIH 40,000
Government subsidy ends 2020
Auto Maker Huge EV Plans- $70 billion Bet
General Motors 20 new EVs by 2023
Nissan 8 new EVs sell 1M in 2022
Daimler 10 new EVs 25% production 2025
Toyota 10 new EVs 2020 1M EV / 5M hybrid 2030
VW 16 EV plants 2022 / 3M/yr 2025 50EV 30PIH
USA Government Mandates are supposed to
reduce smog and CO2 EVs claim to be zero emission to eliminate HC/NOx/CO2 from cars
HC, NOx and sunlight causes LA smog: catalytic converters greatly
reduced LA smog
CO2 promotes plant growth so is beneficial but theoretical climate
modelers claim CO2 increases global temperature
Global CO2 now 400 ppm (4 CO2 molecules per 10,000 air
molecules
with 80% N2 20% O2) -- CO2 was 280 ppm 100 years ago
Known--CO2 varied from 180 to 7,000 ppm past 500 million years
Dr. Jim Wallace (ex GM) statistically analyzed long term
temperature data and concludes global temperature is not
influenced by CO2
US Historical Climatology
Network Average USA
Temperature
NOAA cools past
measured data
to show warming trend
This is cheating!
Sun radiance
varies with
11 & 2,300
year cycles
SUN hydrogen fusion core makes
helium at 27,000,000°F surface
10,000°F
Mass 330,000xearth and 99.9%
total mass of the Solar System
100Watts/sq ft on earth surface
15W/sf 15% eff. Solar cells
6-10 hours/day
WSJ Opinion17Apr 2018
Peter Wood President
David Randall Director of Research
National Association of Scholars
How Bad is the Government’s Science
“Half the results published in peer-reviewed
scientific journals are wrong.”
“The whole discipline of
climate science is a
farrago (confused mixture) of
unreliable statistics, arbitrary
research techniques and
politicized groupthink.”
Edmunds hybrid/EV/
plug-in 2018 USA sales
Estimate
Total 750,000
EVs 290,000
Projected Battery price drop
could boost EV sales
Caveat-Cobalt &
Lithium price rising may
halt lower price trend
2030 at 100kWh/EV=
7M WW EV sales
Most in China
7% of 100M car market
CA Air Resources Board
ZEV Mandate
Many complicated categories
ZEV Zero Emission Vehicles
TZEV Transitional Partial Em Veh
ATZEV Adv Tech Part Em Veh
SULEV Super Ultra Low Em Veh
Funny thing—65% of USA
electric plants use natural gas/coal/
oil so EVs are NOT Zero Emissions
For TRUE ZEV need 100% nuclear power
runs 24/7 unlike intermittent solar power
ZEV Credit based on EV Range
4 credits max for 350m range
$5,000/vehicle fine if miss ZEV quota
Tesla sold $700 Million in credits at $1,600/credit
USA MANDATES
Now 1. ZEV Mandate CA, CT, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT
have Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate forces makers
to sell EVs. Makers must buy credits if miss targets.
2. Federal MPG Mandate Makers build small cars to meet
fuel economy rules, today 27mpg. Obama standard
54.5mpg by 2025 is under review, likely will be revised.
Future
1. ZEV mandate disappears, few EVs will be sold without
subsidies. If ZEV mandate continues, EV market will still be
small.
2. Modest new mpg standard, say 38 mpg, will not effect
EV sales, (EVs are rated at 100+mpg equivalent).
USA MANDATES
Now 1. ZEV Mandate CA, CT, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY,
OR, RI, VT have Zero Emission Vehicle mandate forces
makers to sell EVs. Makers must buy credits if miss
targets.
2. Federal MPG Mandate Makers build small cars to
meet fuel economy rules, today 27mpg. Obama
standard 54.5mpg by 2025 is under review, likely will be
revised.
FUTURE 1. ZEV Mandate disappears, few EVs will be
sold without subsidies. If continues, EV market still
small.
2. Modest new Fed mpg standard, say 38 mpg, will not
effect EV sales, (EVs are rated at 100+mpg equivalent).
USA MARKET FACT
1. People buy vehicles they want, a free market choice.
2.Gasoline automobile replaced horse & buggy and early EVs.
3. Gasoline SUVs and Crossovers are 65% of market today.
4. Norway-40% EV sales no 25% VAT tax, free toll road & fast lanes.
But north sea oil money funds Norway EV subsidies. Now
1. Government Subsidies help EV Fed EV tax credit $7,500 max
+ CA $2,500 rebate + 9 other states. Fed $7,500 limited to
200,000 EVs/maker; $3,750 for 1 year; then gone. Future
1. If tax credits/rebates vanish, USA EV sales plateau (or vanish)
at 10% (FJ guess), or 2M of total sales 17M/yr. now.
2. If tax credits extended, USA EV sales plateau 25% (FJ guess), or
5M, total 20M/yr. Cost $50 B/yr. One Trillion $/20years.
3. Achieving 100% EV sales unlikely in this century.
1. Free markets always win.
2. USA EV market will be modest, less than 5
million/yr., for many years.
3. Better battery performance and cost reduction,
with fast charging (10 min. to 50% charge), could
enhance EV sales.
4. Electric Bikes sales will be 100 million/year
worldwide by 2050 for sure.
5. By 2050 fuel cell vehicles will be the ultimate
electric transportation revolution. FCVs will use H2
from electrolysis of water using nuclear electricity
(today H2 from methane makes CO2).
Frank Jamerson
[email protected] www.ebwr.com
Conclusion
China extensive Rare Earth mines allows
control of RE metal pricing
Blue-FOB Export China price Red-Domestic price
This forces makers to produce RE magnets in China!