PROSPECTS FOR CONTAINER SHIPPING AND

PORTS IN THE ESCAP REGION

MPPM

Port Expert Group MeetingAPEC TPT-WG/204-5 March 2002, Manila

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Water Transport

MPPM – to provide a regional planning contextShipping policy - to promote competitive servicesCruise shipping – to explore new opportunitiesPort commercialization/privatization – to enhance efficiencyIWT integration – to improve sustainabilityMultimodal transport and logistics – to promote integration

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Maritime Policy Planning Model

Developed by the ESCAP secretariatA set of computer modules covering trade, shipping and ports to provide projection of:

Trade flows and future shipping requirementsPort cargo throughputs and port infrastructure requirements

Integrated Computer Modules

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MPPM Studies

Prospects for container shipping and port development

ASEAN (1992)South Asia (1993)East Asia (1994)Intra-regional Container Shipping Study (1997)

Regional shipping and port development strategies under a changing maritime environment (2001)

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Three Modules of MPPM

Trade Module

Liner Shipping Network Module

Port Strategic Planning Module

Forecast cargo flowsCountry to country and port to port matrixes

Assign the port-to-port cargo flows to shipping networkShipping requirements and port throughputs

Assess port capacity/investment requirements

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MPPM Model Structure

Trade Module

LinerShippingNetworkModule

PortStrategicPlanningModule

CIY Port DataO-D DataPort share

RoutesService details

Vessel description

Port classTEU/ship-hour

Fleetrequired

Vessel callsat ports

Portthroughputs

Port capacityrequired

Port-to-portcargo flows

Input

Output

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Trade Projection

Analysis of historical dataTime-series of import/e xport full container totals for countries

Forecast export/import totalsSimple r egression function estimation• Explanatory variables: GDP

Produce port-to-port cargo flows

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Economic Growth Assumption

LINK Average 1999-2004

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

An

nu

al

Gro

wth

Ra

te (

%)

World Japan China India Malaysia

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World Container Volumes (Full, O-D)

123

59.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mil

lio

n T

EU

Historical Estimates Model Estimates

59

123

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Asian Container Trade

Europe

Asia

N. America

Asia

7.7%

5.7%7.6%

5.1%

4.210.3

12.530.1

4.68.3

6.813.1

World Total 59 m TEU (1999) 123 m TEU (2011)

7.6%

5.312.9

6.3%

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JAPAN

Busan /Gwangyang

Kaohsiung

Hong Kong

PHILIPPINES

Singapore

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

MALAYSIA

THAILAND

DalianQinhuangdao

TianjinXingang

Yantai Qingdao

Lianyungang

NanjingShanghai

Ningbo

FuzhouXiamenShantouYantianShekouChiwan

HuangpuZhuhai

Mainline Connection Feeder ConnectionTo North America and/or Europe

Asian Liner Shipping Network

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400+ actual service routes to/from/within Asia (1999)

Service details (sequence of calling ports, service frequency)

Vessel description (how many ships of how big sizes)

What will the future shipping network look like?

Liner Shipping Network

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25003000

34004000

6200

7200

8000

12000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2000 2006 2011

How big will ships be?

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Scenarios on shipping networks

Base network 2011Similar to existing shipping network

Bigger ships up to 12000 TEU but limited role: 8000 TEU or less in major E-W routes

Big ships network 201112000 TEU ships playing dominant role calling very limited number of super hub ports in E-W routes

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Required Number of Ships

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1999 2006 Base Case BigShip

No

. of S

hip

s

<750 750-1750 1750-3500 3500-9000 9000-13000

2001

32493,257

1,9072,394

3,062

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Asia-Europe (2011)

2001

Ship size distribution

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Ship Size (TEU)

Num

be

r o

f Shi

ps

2011 Base Case 2011 Big Ships

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Transpacific (2011)

2001

Ship size distribution

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Ship Size (TEU)

Nu

mb

er

of

Sh

ips

2011 Base Case 2011 Big Ships

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Trans-shipment (ESCAP)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1999 Base 2011 Big Ships 2011

Mill

ion

TE

U

Kobe/Osaka

Tokyo/Yokohama

Gwangyang

Busan

Kaohsiung

Shanghai

Hong Kong

Tanjung Pelepas

Port Klang

Singapore

Colombo

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6467

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Container Port Throughput

ESCAP Region

N Asia18.7%

S Asia6.6%

Other Asia4.4%

E Asia40.9%

SE Asia29.4%

216 million TEUBase Case

2011

SE Asia29.4%

S Asia5.2%

Other Asia5.3%

E Asia40.0%

N Asia20.0%

95 million TEU1999

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Top 5 Container Ports in ESCAP (2011)

Busan 6.3 12.5

Port 1999 2011

Hong Kong 16.2 25.3

Shanghai 4.0 19.0

Kaohsiung 7.0 12.8

(Million TEU)

Singapore 15.9 30.9

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Container Berth Requirement

North Asia20%

East Asia38%

S Asia9%

Other Asia4%

South East Asia29%

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162

124

4119

Total number of additional berths required: 434

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Investment Requirements

Number of additional requireme

nt

Investment requirement(US$ Billion)

Containerships

1,350 60

Container Berths

434 27

ESCAP Region

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Difficult for developing countries to maintain a presence in shipping market

Deregulation and liberalization

Financing increased capital commitment

Prioritization of projectsPrivate sector participation

Improving port productivityIntermodal integration

Issues and Policy Implications

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Strengths of MPPM

Comprehensive view of the system

Regional perspectives

Coherent and internally consistent ‘forecasts’

Every container assigned to a particular shipping service to be carried from one port to other

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Cargo Allocation in MPPM

Los AngelesUSA

Hong Kong

Port A

Port Klang

PTP

Singapore

1TEU 1TEU

Laem Chabang Thailand

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Limitations of MPPM

Simple trade projection Limitations on port numbers & transshipment nodes Lack of intermodal representation

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Plan to Upgrade/Expand the Model

2002-2003 Utilize contemporary modeling technologies Cover the whole APEC region Represent intermodal connection

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New APEC-wide Study

A new study could cover the whole APEC region Cooperation of participating countries will be critical

Provide information and data Feed-back

Enhance collaboration between APEC and ESCAP

Thank you

MPPM

Port Expert Group MeetingAPEC TPT-WG/204-5 March 2002, Manila