Prospective and regional modelling of construction ...lcm-conferences.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/presentations/Monday/… · Misc. Mass flow Global warming Total inflow: 63.2 Mt/a

||www.esd.ifu.ethz.ch

Niko Heeren, PhD

8th International Conference on Life Cycle Management

Luxembourg, 4. September 2017

4. Sep. 2017 1

Prospective and regional modelling of construction

material flows

Niko Heeren

||www.esd.ifu.ethz.ch 4. Sep. 2017 2

Environmental impacts of annual Swiss material flow

Niko Heeren

3%9%

10%

2%

63%

5%

0%

1%2%

5%

0% Electricity (tonne oil equivalent)

Fuel (tonne oil equivalent)

Gravel, sand

Asphalt

Concrete

Brick

Combustibles

Wood

Metals

Ceramics

Misc.

Mass flow Global warming

Total inflow:

63.2 Mt/a

Total emissions:

36.9 Mt CO2-eq./a

Gauch et al. 2016

3%

9%

10%

2%

63%

5%

0% 1% 2%

5%

0% Electricity (tonne oil equivalent)


Gravel, sand

Asphalt

Concrete

Brick

Combustibles

Wood

Metals

Ceramics

Misc.

15%

56%

0%

1%

9%

2%

2%1% 10%

4% 0% Electricity (tonne oil equivalent)


Gravel, sand

Asphalt

Concrete

Brick

Combustibles

Wood

Metals

Ceramics

Misc.


Energy-related emissions

Niko Heeren

Data: AWEL, Kirchner et al. 2012 Heeren et al. 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

1970s 1990s Standard 2000

Standard 2008

Standard 2014

Passive house

Zero Energy Building

Space h

eat

dem

and

[kW

h/m

2a]

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2015 2030 2040 2050

Energ

y s

ourc

e s

pace h

eating

Other

Solar collectors

Coal

District heat

Natural gas

Direct electricty

Heat pump

Biomass

Fuel oil

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tota

l gre

enhouse g

as e

mis

sio

ns

[Mt C

O2-e

q.]


Creating building inventories

Niko Heeren

Building

register

3D

databaseTypology

Empirical

data


1. Building volume

2. Material replacement

3. Dwelling / residence time

4. Sep. 2017 5

Dynamic material flow analysis

Niko Heeren


Results in space & time

Niko Heeren

Material density [t/m2]

0

60

Heeren, N. & Hellweg, S. (submitted). Tracking construction material over space and time: Prospective and geo-referenced modeling

of building stocks and construction material flows. Journal of Industrial Ecology.


Floor area demand

Niko Heeren

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Co

nstr

ucte

d flo

or

are

a [1

06

m2]

Po

pu

latio

n g

row

th [ca

p/a

]

Population growth Demolish & rebuild New construction

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Co

nstr

ucte

d flo

or

are

a [1

06

m2]

Po

pu

latio

n g

row

th [ca

p/a

]

Population growth Demolish & rebuilt (base scenario)

Heeren and Hellweg (submitted)


Material flows

Niko Heeren


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2015 2035 2055 2015 2035 2055

Base Turnover

Ma

ss flo

w [M

t/a]

brick

combustible

concrete

glass

insulation

metal

mineral

wood

wood

mineral

metal

insulation

glass

concrete

combustible

brick


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Gre

en

ho

use

ga

s e

mis

sio

ns

[Mt

CO

2-e

q.

/ a

]

4. Sep. 2017 9

Greenhouse gas emissions

Niko Heeren


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Gre

en

ho

use

ga

s e

mis

sio

ns

[Mio

to

ns C

O2

-eq

. /

a]


Disposal of construction material

Niko Heeren

Data: Gauch et al. 2016, Jakob et al. 2016

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Gravel, sand

Asphalt

Concrete

Brick

Metals

Ceramics, gypsum, glass, etc.

Mixed materials

Combustible

Wood

Insulation material

Recycling

Thermal treatment

Landfill


Closing the loop

GWP emissions in 2055

Niko Heeren

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1 2 3 4 5

Annual gre

enhouse g

as e

mis

sio

ns

[t C

O2-e

q.]

brick * input brick * output combustible * input

combustible * output concrete * input concrete * output

glass * input glass * output insulation * input

insulation * output metal * input metal * output

mineral * input mineral * output wood * input

wood * output

No substitution

Substitute mineral aggregates➤ 0.5% reduction

Material use of wood➤ 0.6% reduction

Thermal use of wood CHP➤ 3.4% reduction

Insulation material substitution➤ 24.8% reduction


Construction material will play an important role for environmental impacts of

building stocks

Demographic trend leads to significant changes in construction activity

Material input and output flows in similar orders of magnitude

Insulation material identified as a particularly problematic material fraction; new

recycling systems required

4. Sep. 2017 12

Conclusions

Niko Heeren


Gordon Research Conference Industrial Ecology

May 20 - 25, 2018

and Gordon Research Seminar, May 19 - 20, 2018

The role of Industrial Ecology in reaching the

Sustainable Development Goals

Les Diablerets in Switzerland

Chair / Vice-Chair GRC: Stefanie Hellweg / Anu Ramaswami

Chair / Vice-Chair GRS: Mengya Tao / Morgan Rae Edwards

Applications for participation/poster open now at: tiny.cc/grc2018

Notification of acceptance starting October 2017


Heeren, N., Jakob, M., Martius, G., Gross, N., & Wallbaum, H. (2013). A component based bottom-up building stock model for comprehensive environmental impact assessment and target control. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Heeren, N. (2017) Modelling Environmental Impacts of Buildings – Energy, Material, and Dynamics. Dissertation. ETH Zurich

Heeren, N. & Hellweg, S. (submitted). Tracking construction material over space and time: Prospective and geo-referenced modeling of building stocks and construction material flows. Journal of Industrial Ecology.

Gauch, M., Matasci, C., Hincapié, I., Hörler, R., & Böni, H. (2016). Material- und Energieressourcen sowie Umweltauswirkungen der baulichen Infrastruktur der Schweiz. Bundesamt für Umwelt. Bern.

28.11.2017 14

References

Niko Heeren

[email protected]

Thank you!

28.11.201715

||www.esd.ifu.ethz.ch Niko Heeren 16

Component-based typologies

Ostermeyer et al. 2017b

4. Sep. 2017

||www.esd.ifu.ethz.ch 17

Exterior wall 1920-1946 (brick type)

Initial construction

Plastered brickwork

Thermal resistance (U): 0.82 W/m2K

Wooden refurbishment

+16cm wood-based insulation,

+16cm wooden beam,

+2cm wooden fibre board

+2cm plaster, -2cm plaster


Legal minimum

+10cm insulation, +2cm plaster

-2cm plaster


Heeren et al. 2015, Ostermeyer et al. 2017b

4. Sep. 2017Niko Heeren


Material composition & dwelling time

18

Exterior wall 1920-1946 (brick type)

Input: +10cm insulation, +2cm plaster

Output: -2cm plaster

SFH, 1920-1946, exterior wall, brick

type, standard refurbishment:

2cm plaster | 20cm brick | 2cm plaster



Scenario / Category Renewal Material Envelope

1 Base 0.6% p.a. refurbishment

0.15% p.a. demolition

58% concrete

37% brick

5% wood

90% standard

5% low-energy

5% passive

2 Floor area Base +20% larger new

constructions

Base Base

3 Turnover 1.2% p.a. refurbishment

0.3% p.a. demolition

Base Base

4 Wood Base 55% concrete

35% brick

10% wood

Base

5 Insulation Base Base 50% standard

25% low-energy

25% passive standard

6 Combined 3 Turnover 4 Wood 5 Insulation

4. Sep. 2017Niko Heeren 19

Scenarios


GWP by material

204. Sep. 2017

Heeren and Hellweg 2017

Niko Heeren


Cumulated GWP by flow

21

0

50

100

150

200

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Cum

ula

ted g

reenhouse

gas

em

issi

ons

[Mio

tons

CO

2-e

q.]

demolition

refurbishment output

refurbishment input

demolition

1 2 3 4 5 6

BAU Floor area Turnover Wood Insulation Synthesis

4. Sep. 2017

Heeren and Hellweg 2017

Niko Heeren


Cumulated GWP by material



Life Cycle Impact massive vs. wood building

Niko Heeren

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Cu

mu

late

d g

ree

nh

ou

se

ga

s e

mis

sio

ns

[t C

O2-e

q.]

Building operation [a]

Space heat demand

Material disposal

Material production & maintenance

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Cu

mu

late

d g

ree

nh

ou

se

ga

s e

mis

sio

ns

[t C

O2-e

q.]


Space heat demand

Material disposal


massive wood


Life Cycle Impact massive vs. wood building

Niko Heeren

massive wood

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Cu

mu

late

d g

ree

nh

ou

se

ga

s e

mis

sio

ns

[t C

O2-e

q.]


Space heat demand

Material disposal


0

50

100

150

200

250

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Cu

mu

late

d g

ree

nh

ou

se

ga

s e

mis

sio

ns

[t C

O2-e

q.]


Space heat demand

Material disposal



Greenhouse gas emissions

Niko Heeren

Base scenario Turnover scenario

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Cu

mu

late

d g

ree

nh

ou

se

ga

s e

mis

sio

ns

[Mio

to

ns C

O2-e

q.]

demolition

refurbishment

output

refurbishment

input

new

construction

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Cu

mu

late

d g

ree

nh

ou

se

ga

s e

mis

sio

ns

[Mio

to

ns C

O2-e

q.]

demolition

refurbishment

output

refurbishment

input

new

construction

Documents

Prospective and regional modelling of construction ...lcm-conferences.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/presentations/Monday/… · Misc. Mass flow Global warming Total inflow: 63.2 Mt/a