Promise of Broadband – Pass/Fail

Don Westlight, Ed Parker, Mary Beth Henry, Jon Dolan, Sheldon Renan with assistance from Rob Wilcox

Broadband... So what???apologies to Maslow…

• Jobs• Government• Healthcare• Education• Entertainment

Let’s talk about pastand future

Mass Media Circa 1970

• 4 broadcast TV networks

• Sender-controlled mass media

• No personal computers or smartphones

• modem speed 300 bits per second

• No social media or user participation

• Vision: receiver-controlled mass media

1970 vision of the Internet

• computer information retrieval systems

• SPIRES, Stanford physics pre-print collection on-line

• user terminals combining typewriter & TV functions

• software network functions

• electronic daily newspapers

• world’s libraries of information on demand

• telephone too narrow-band; need broadband cable

Retrospective look: Mission Accomplished, but more needed

1990 Networks

• live and work anywhere with good enough communications

• modem speed 9600

• dial up access (long distance toll calls on Oregon coast)

• Walled gardens: AOL, CompuServe, Dialog

• email systems not interconnected

• first North American web page: Stanford physics pre-print collection

Promise of Broadband … we thought

GO FASTER !

But really we went from this ….

… to this in terms of social change.

Millennials Not Driving

“Between 2001 and 2009, the average number of miles

driven by 16 to 34 year-olds dropped by 23 percent …”

-U.S. Public Interest Research Group

It Sure is Turning up Everywhere ...

Is Broadband Everywhere?

Exponential Oregon

New Rules

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santyana, 1913FORGET IT

How Oregon is Changing

Population grows geometrically(slowly)

How Oregon is Changing

Oregonians havea growing number of connected nodes per person

How Oregon is Changing

The growth in data is much faster than the growth in population or nodes!

Game Changer 1 - Aging Population

Percent of Population over 55

2010 29.7

2015 31.2

2020 33.9

2025 32.4

2030 32.72035 33.2

Game Changer 2 - Climate Change

“Climate change is a bigger threat to survival of a species than other species.”

-Charles Darwin

Oregon to be a “life-raft state”.Climate refugees may mob Oregon.

How Oregon is Changing

Increasing numbers creates complexity.As complexity increases…Connectivity must increase to manage it.

How Oregon is Changing

ThinkOutside beyondThe Network

Thinknetworks —> n e t n e s s

How Oregon is Changing

systems & networks —> fabrics & fieldsconnected —> entangledtwo worlds (atoms & bits) become one

the new normal

How Oregon is Changing

Anything that can be connectedwill be connected.

What gets connectedgets optimized.

The more things are connectedthe better things work.

How Oregon is Changing

Time to Rethink:

Policy ProvisioningPeering

How Oregon is Changing

Time to Re-prioritize:

The Public Goodis Good Business

Localism

•Technology moves faster than regulation

• Success depends on where you are on the pyramid

• Local Broadband Strategic Plan

• Encourage broadband deployment,

competition & localism

• Digital Inclusion Strategy

Alive and Well in Oregon

2 communities 2 Stories

SandyNet– Gigabit Fiber to

the Premise

Portland’s IRNE– Gigabit Fiber for

Government

SandyNet

• Non-profit utility• $7.5 million• 100 Mbps - $39.95• Gigabit - $59.95

Portland IRNE

•Non-profit utility•$14 million•Cost effective, collaborative and future-focused

Localism in Action

• Laser-like focus on need for FTTP– (Portlanders believe in a high fiber diet)

• Look at Google, CenturyLink and Comcast as potential partners

• Digital Inclusion – part of civic DNA

Next Century Cities

•High-Speed Internet Is Necessary Infrastructure

•The Internet Is Nonpartisan

•Communities Must Enjoy Self-Determination.

•High-Speed Internet Is a Community-Wide Endeavor

•Meaningful Competition Drives Progress

•Collaboration Benefits All

What is Broadband?

Localism

•Localism may not mean the same thing in every community.

•We have to create the future.

•Connecting everything … people, places, devices, things…

•What does this mean for your future?

In healthcare

EVERYTHING is CONNECTED

Infrastructure Investment

One WIFI AP every 50’ square (2500 ft2)

OHSU has 6 million square feet = 2400 WIFI has been complete for years (actually 2500 deployed)

Gigabit is OHSU’s new standard connection, 85,000 ports will take awhile...

Backbone rings, where does the data go?

100 Gigabit Ring just between datacenters

Gigabit shmigabit… so what?

“In the 13 countries we studied, the Internet has contributed an average of

3.4% to GDP, weighting more than agriculture, energy, and other better established industries… This value

comes primarily from increased productivity.

-McKinsey Global InstituteInternet Matters: The net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity.

GDPinvolves you

Maybe your

data is worth protecting...

Broadband correlated to burglary in BritainInternet Journal on Criminology 2012 ISSN 2045-6743

Burglarydeclines

Internet use grows

Second car is a smartphone app…

Checking out a car old school without broadband…(OK so I came from a tough neighborhood…)

The promise of Broadband:Cure Cancer

Poor Herbie Hart

Poor Herbie Hart

By 2020 we will be able to sequence a person’s genome in one day

((a process involving computation))

Dr. Brian Drucker Knight Cancer InstituteOn pace for the $1B fundraising challenge

The OHSU DatadomeA world class facilityfor big data…

The promise of Broadband:Cure Cancer

Poor Herbie Hart

Poor Herbie Hart

• First read a genetic sample and transcribe the genome (Goal 1 day by 2020 - datacenter intensive)

• Then interpret the genome by correlating to known problems and solutions. (Contests at synapse.org to do this right now. “A set of living research projects enabling contribution to large scale collaborative solutions to scientific problems.”) (crowdsource algorithms against known patient genomes & outcomes)

• Then build a custom cure for each patient. (Think programmable kryptonite virus...)

The promise of Broadband:Pass / Fail

Poor Herbie Hart

Poor Herbie Hart

Pros: Broadband saves distance and time for whatever you want to do… there’s an app for that...

Communication/Collaboartion Tools, Job Engagement, Entertainment & Culture, Medicine & Emergency Response,, Personal/Civic/Global involvement feasible. Meaningfully responding as a species to Global Warming, plus Traffic & Weather alerts

Cons: Broadband saves distance and time for activity you don’t like

Aggressive marketing & profiling, Hackers, Terrorists, Braindamaged Banking Regulation, and Cyberwar: The Internet was not originally designed for security. Some work remains to be done. Yes and we should prepare for earthquakes, and people without drivers licenses could smash up your car… we just have to manage our risks and broadband is no different

Bottom Line: PASS (Thanks for your hard work getting here!)

Safety, Health and your job (the Economy) benefit

and you get to watch Youtube & Netflix...

Broadband Future

• All we need is MORE

• WiFi+ everywhere• Internet of Things: smart roads, smart everything

• high definition holographic image projection

• fast inter-planetary broadbandNext interim goal: 100 gigabits everywhere

Thank You & Conversation