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Projected Future Changes. Primary Source: IPCC WG-I Chapter 10 - Global Climate Projections. Part 1: Projected Radiative Forcing. Language Problem: Forecast. IPCC does not talk about “forecasting” or “predicting” future climate. Why?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Projected Future ChangesProjected Future Changes
Primary Source: Primary Source:
IPCC WG-I Chapter 10 - Global Climate ProjectionsIPCC WG-I Chapter 10 - Global Climate Projections
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Part 1: Projected Radiative ForcingPart 1: Projected Radiative Forcing
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
•A “forecast” implies that we know (or think we know) all the A “forecast” implies that we know (or think we know) all the factors that determine the future - even though we may know factors that determine the future - even though we may know them only imperfectly.them only imperfectly.
Some important factors we do Some important factors we do notnot know for the future: know for the future: What will humans do about GHG emissions, aerosol generation What will humans do about GHG emissions, aerosol generation and land use?and land use? When and where will volcanoes erupt, and how strongly? When and where will volcanoes erupt, and how strongly?
Language Problem: ForecastLanguage Problem: Forecast
IPCC does not talk about “forecasting” or “predicting” future IPCC does not talk about “forecasting” or “predicting” future climate. Why?climate. Why?
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
IPCC: IPCC: “A “A projectionprojection is a potential future evolution of a is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed with quantity or set of quantities, often computed with the aid of a model.”the aid of a model.”
To recognize this uncertainty, many climate scientists To recognize this uncertainty, many climate scientists describe a simulation of possible future climate as a describe a simulation of possible future climate as a projection.projection.
Terminology: ProjectionTerminology: Projection
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC Working Group III produced a set of possible IPCC Working Group III produced a set of possible future emissions scenarios, described in special IPCC future emissions scenarios, described in special IPCC report (see supplemental material).report (see supplemental material).
There is no probability weighting to these scenarios: There is no probability weighting to these scenarios: each is considered equally credible.each is considered equally credible.
•The IPCC AR4 focuses on three:The IPCC AR4 focuses on three: B1 - a “low” emissions future, global cooperation B1 - a “low” emissions future, global cooperation A1B - a “medium” emissions future A1B - a “medium” emissions future A2 - a “high” emissions future, regional fragmentation A2 - a “high” emissions future, regional fragmentation
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
SRES Scenarios vs. TimeSRES Scenarios vs. Time
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Steps from Scenario to Climate ChangeSteps from Scenario to Climate Change
Biogeochemical models
Radiation schemes and
parameterizations
Climate system models
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Radiative Radiative ForcingsForcings
GCM GCM vs vs
Line-by-lineLine-by-line
What is What is
““line-by-line-by-line”?line”?
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Radiative Radiative ForcingsForcings
GCM GCM vs vs
Line-by-lineLine-by-line
Doubled Doubled COCO22
20% 20% increase increase in water in water
vaporvapor
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Radiative Radiative ForcingsForcings
SRES A1B SRES A1B 2000-21002000-2100
Longwave Longwave (infrared)(infrared)
Shortwave Shortwave (solar)(solar)
aerosol aerosol uncertaintyuncertainty
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
EndEndPart 1: Projected Radiative ForcingPart 1: Projected Radiative Forcing
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Part 2: Projected Climate Change - Part 2: Projected Climate Change - Atmosphere & Water CycleAtmosphere & Water Cycle
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Stabilization of Future Changes in Climate
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Latitudinal Pattern of Temperature ChangeLatitudinal Pattern of Temperature Change
(2080 - 2099) minus (1980 - 1999)(2080 - 2099) minus (1980 - 1999)
Ratio: Ratio: Local change / Global average Local change / Global average TT
Actual changeActual change
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Latitude-Height Temperature ChangesLatitude-Height Temperature Changes
A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to 1980-1999A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to 1980-1999
Stippling: Stippling:
multi-model ensemble mean > standard deviation between modelsmulti-model ensemble mean > standard deviation between models
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Surface Temperature ChangesSurface Temperature ChangesRelative to 1980-1999Relative to 1980-1999
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Latitudinal Pattern of Precipitation ChangeLatitudinal Pattern of Precipitation Change
(2080 - 2099) minus (1980 - 1999)(2080 - 2099) minus (1980 - 1999)
Actual changeActual changeRatio: Ratio: Local change / Global average Local change / Global average TT
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Surface Temperature, Precipitation and Pressure ChangesSurface Temperature, Precipitation and Pressure ChangesRelative to 1980-1999Relative to 1980-1999
Stippling: Stippling:
multi-model ensemble mean > standard deviation between modelsmulti-model ensemble mean > standard deviation between models
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes in Changes in Cloud Cloud Cover Cover
[fraction][fraction]
A1B A1B (“medium”) (“medium”)
scenario scenario relative to relative to 1980-19991980-1999
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes in Diurnal Temperature RangeChanges in Diurnal Temperature Range
A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to 1980-1999A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to 1980-1999
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes in Precipitation CharacteristicsChanges in Precipitation Characteristics
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes in Water CycleChanges in Water Cycle
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
EndEndPart 2: Projected Climate Change - Part 2: Projected Climate Change -
Atmosphere & Water CycleAtmosphere & Water Cycle
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Part 3: Projected Climate Change - Part 3: Projected Climate Change - Oceans & ExtremesOceans & Extremes
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Latitude-Height Temperature ChangesLatitude-Height Temperature Changes
A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to 1980-1999A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to 1980-1999
Stippling: Stippling:
multi-model ensemble mean > standard deviation between modelsmulti-model ensemble mean > standard deviation between models
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes in Area of Sea IceChanges in Area of Sea Ice
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes in Distribution of Sea IceChanges in Distribution of Sea Ice
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes in tropical Pacific SSTs and El Niño VariabilityChanges in tropical Pacific SSTs and El Niño Variability
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes in Extremes: Very Warm Nights Changes in Extremes: Very Warm Nights
(Wehner, (Wehner, 2008)2008)
For For North North
AmericaAmerica
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes in Extremes: Heavy Precipitation Changes in Extremes: Heavy Precipitation
(Wehner, (Wehner, 2008)2008)
For For North North
AmericaAmerica
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes Changes in in
ExtremesExtremes
Standard deviation Standard deviation scale used to scale used to
combine results combine results from multiple from multiple
modelsmodels
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Factors Factors Affecting Affecting Hurricane Hurricane
DevelopmentDevelopment
(Vecchi and Soden, 2007)(Vecchi and Soden, 2007)
A1B scenarioA1B scenario
18 GCMs18 GCMs
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Changes Hurricane IntensityChanges Hurricane Intensity
(Knutson and (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004)Tuleya, 2004)
Idealized Idealized Simulations Simulations
with High with High Resolution Resolution
ModelModel
Future: 80-year Future: 80-year warming from warming from 1%/year CO1%/year CO22
increaseincrease
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Sea Level Rise due to Thermal Expansion
Observed:
1961-2003: 0.4 ± 0.1 mm/yr
1993-2003: 1.6 ± 0.5 mm/yr
Models (A1B):
2000-2020: 1.3 ± 0.7 mm/yr
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Local Sea Level Change due to Density and Circulation ChangesLocal Sea Level Change due to Density and Circulation Changes
““+” = greater than global average+” = greater than global average Stippling: Stippling:
ensemble mean > stdev between modelsensemble mean > stdev between models
Wind changes? Low thermal expansivity?
Freshening of water?
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
Sea-Level Rise: 2090-2099 from 1980-1999Sea-Level Rise: 2090-2099 from 1980-1999
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
EndEndPart 3: Projected Climate Change - Part 3: Projected Climate Change -
Oceans & ExtremesOceans & Extremes
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10)
ENDEND
Global Climate ProjectionsGlobal Climate Projections