1

Project proposalProject proposal

Forest and water in changing climate -Forest and water in changing climate -

Impacts of climate change on water Impacts of climate change on water discharge as a key ecosystem function discharge as a key ecosystem function in different (mountainous) catchments in different (mountainous) catchments

in Europein EuropeEuropean Environment Agency

Josef Herkendell

Project manager biodiversity and climate change impacts

2

Mountainous catchment (Alps)Mountainous catchment (Alps)

3

Mountainous catchment (Norway)Mountainous catchment (Norway)

4

Virtual water catchmentVirtual water catchment

P(t)P(t)

Source: FAO Land and water bulletin 1/1993Source: FAO Land and water bulletin 1/1993

R(t)

t

EP(t)EP(t)

R(t)R(t)

Precipitation changes

Temperature changes

Land use

Runoff changes

Proposed size of the water catchment

5

Human versus natural impacts on watershed Human versus natural impacts on watershed processes: a matter of scaleprocesses: a matter of scale

Source: Source: Based on G. Ives and B. MesserliBased on G. Ives and B. Messerli, 1989. The Himalayan dilemma. Reconciling, 1989. The Himalayan dilemma. Reconciling development and conservation. development and conservation. London and New York, RoutledgeLondon and New York, Routledge

MICRO-WATERSHED(less than 50 km²)

MESO-WATERSHED(50 to 20 000 km²)

MACRO-WATERSHED(bigger than 20 000 km²)

LIMITED

N A

T U

R A

L

IMPA

CT

H U

M A

N

IMPA

CT

LIMITED

HIGHER

HIGHER

Proposed size: less than 500 km² ?

6

Questions to be answered by projectQuestions to be answered by projectOverall targetsOverall targets

Test ing an integrated environmental assessment approach to better understand the functions and services of different land uses in catchments

Assessing and mapping the multiple functions of different land uses in catchments ( Reality check ) Variation over Europe

Selecting those functions to be shown as the most relevant ones for optimising quality of habitats and water discharge

Testing the response behaviour on the impact of extreme weather events based past data with regional CC scenarios

Vulnerability check Adaptive capacity of the different functions?/limitations? (reality

check on the basis of regional CC scenarios and/or observed impacts of extreme weather events)

Current and actual adaptation observations and processes

Possible recommendations for optimising land-use management

7

Proposed selection criteria for water catchments Proposed selection criteria for water catchments in the frame of this project:in the frame of this project:

Size: 50 to 500 km², one of each bio-geographical region

Physical and bio-geographical data and information on actual land-use/changes in land-use

±Even distribution of land-uses protected areas, forests and agriculture

East-West/West-East direction of the river flow (±20°), preferably

Full discharge information quantity/quality for the catchment Forest growth; Carbon stored; etc.

Information on weather extremes in the past 30 years (either drought, extreme precipitation)

8

Additional information and data needs for each Additional information and data needs for each catchment:catchment:

High density of additional information on ecosystems, preferably long-time series,

▪ Protected areas ▪ Forest ▪ Agriculture ▪ ( other relevant socio-economic information)?

9

Changes in runoff in Central Alps Changes in runoff in Central Alps (Hirham RCM)(Hirham RCM)

Source: Martin Beniston, University of Geneva, SwitzerlandSource: Martin Beniston, University of Geneva, Switzerland

10

Biogeographic regions of Europe Biogeographic regions of Europe

Examples of recent and projected runoff regimeExamples of recent and projected runoff regime

ArcticArctic

BorealBoreal

AtlanticAtlantic

ContinentalContinental

AlpineAlpine

PanonianPanonian

MediterraneanMediterranean

SteppicSteppic

Black SeaBlack Sea

AnatolianAnatolian

Rhone (Chancy)

Dischmabach (Davos)

Indalsaelven (Bergeforens)

Guadiana (Pulo do Lobo)

Source: Source: Zierl et al. 2004, Dankers and Feyen, 2008, Dankers and Feyen, 2008

11

Alpine runoff regimeAlpine runoff regime

Source: Source: Zierl et al. 2004

0

100

200

300

400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

current

A1FI HadCM3

A2 HadCM3

B1 HadCM3

B2 HadCM3

A2 CGCM2

A2 CSIRO2

A2 PCM2

Example Dischma valley, 2051 - 2080

? = weather extremes, flood, drought? = weather extremes, flood, drought

??

possible minimum possible minimum discharge (drought)discharge (drought)

12

Multifunctionality of water catchments and their Multifunctionality of water catchments and their servicesservices

Functions

Land uses

Water discharge

Biodiversity C-storageCulture aspects/

landscape

Protectionof

infrastructure Income

Forests

Agriculture

Infrastructure

?

For all cases: average development for the last 30 yearsFor all cases: average development for the last 30 years

13

Multifunctionality of water catchments in EuropeMultifunctionality of water catchments in Europe

Functions

Land uses

Water discharge

Biodiversity C-storageCulture aspects/

landscape

Protectionof

infrastructure Income

Forests

Agriculture

Infrasructure

?

Vulnerability check:Vulnerability check: Impacts of extreme weather events in the past 30 years and climate change impacts in recent years (if available)

14

Biogeographic regions of Europe Biogeographic regions of Europe

Mountainous Northern EuropeMountainous Northern Europe (No, Swe, Fin) (No, Swe, Fin)Less snow, lake and river coverLess snow, lake and river coverIncreased river flowsIncreased river flows

Central and Eastern Europe Central and Eastern Europe medium range mountains (F, D, Cz) medium range mountains (F, D, Cz)Less summer precipitationLess summer precipitationMore river floods in winterMore river floods in winter

High mountain areasHigh mountain areas (Alps, Carpathians) (Alps, Carpathians)High temperature increase High temperature increase Less glacier massLess glacier massLess mountain oermafrostLess mountain oermafrost

Mountainous Mediterranean regionMountainous Mediterranean regionDecrease in annual precipitationDecrease in annual precipitationDecrease in annual river flowDecrease in annual river flowLess energy by hydropowerLess energy by hydropower

??

Source: EEA Report No 4/2008, p.19Source: EEA Report No 4/2008, p.19

Selection of catchments on the basis of forest covered Selection of catchments on the basis of forest covered water catchmentswater catchments

??

??

??

????

??

??

??

ArcticArctic

BorealBoreal

AtlanticAtlantic

ContinentalContinental

AlpineAlpine

PanonianPanonian

MediterraneanMediterranean

SteppicSteppic

Black SeaBlack Sea

AnatolianAnatolian

??

(?)(?)

Highlands in ScotlandHighlands in ScotlandIncrease of winter precipitationIncrease of winter precipitationIncreased river flowsIncreased river flows

15

Questions to be answered for each case study:Questions to be answered for each case study:

How do the ecosystem services vary?

Do the different land-uses full fill the multiple functions of ecosystems in catchments differntly?

Which conclusions can be taken from the information on past extreme weather events?

Which recent impacts related to climate change can be observed?

Which conclusion need to be drawn in terms of recommendations for the future management of water catchments in different bio-geographical regions in Europe?

16

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention

and your contribution!and your contribution!

josef.herkendell@eea.europa.eujosef.herkendell@eea.europa.eu