PROGRESS REPORT

March 2010- March 2011

Biodiversity ScenariosA synthesis and assessment of projections of 21st century changes in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services based on an analysis of a broad range of existing models, experiments and observations

Leadley et al. 2010 CBD TS50 http://gbo3.cbd.int,

Pereira, Leadley et al. 2010 Science

Lead Authors

Paul Leadley, Université Paris-Sud 11, FranceDIVERISITAS bioDISCOVERY co-chair

Henrique Miguel Pereira, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal

Rob Alkemade, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands

Vânia Proença , Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal

Jörn Scharlemann, UNEP-WCMC, UKMatt Walpole, UNEP-WCMC, UK

Contributing Authors

John Agard, The University of The West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago

Miguel Araújo, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, SpainAndrew Balmford, University of Cambridge, UKPatricia Balvanera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de

México, Mexico Oonsie Biggs, Stockholm University, SwedenLaurent Bopp, Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, FranceWilliam Cheung, University of British Columbia, CanadaPhilippe Ciais, Laboratory for Climate Sciences and the

Environment, FranceDavid Cooper, CBD Secretariat, CanadaJoanna C. Ellison, University of Tasmania, AustraliaJuan Fernandez, Universite Paris-Sud XI, FranceEric Gilman, Global Biodiversity Information Facility

Secretariat, Denmark Sylvie Guenette, University of British Columbia, CanadaBernard Hugueny, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle,

France George Hurtt, University of New Hampshire Henry P. Huntington, USAMichael Jennings, University of Idaho, USA

Fabien Leprieur, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, France Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia, UKGeorgina Mace, Imperial College, UK Cheikh Mbow, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Senegal Kieran Mooney, CBD SecretariatAude Neuville, European Commission, Belgium Thierry Oberdorf, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, FranceCarmen Revenga, The Nature Conservancy, SpainJames C. Robertson, The Nature Conservancy, SpainPatricia Rodrigues, Universidade de Lisboa, PortugalJuan Carlos Rocha Gordo, Stockholm University, SwedenHisashi Sato, Japan Agency Marine Earth Science & Technology, Japan Bob Scholes, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa Mark Stafford-Smith, CSIRO, AustraliaUssif Rashid Sumaila, University of British Columbia, CanadaPablo A. Tedescco, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, France

Feb 2010 - Trondheim Conference on Biodiversity, an encounter between CBD delegates & scientists. Trondheim, Norway.

March 2010 - Pre-COP 10 meeting of the CBD. Nagoya, Japan.

May 2010 - Official launch of the Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (GBO3) Nairobi, Kenya.

October 2010 - • Presentation of GBO3• Presentation to launch the "Rio Conventions' Ecosystems and Climate Change Pavilion”…

T Lovejoy, Dir. Heinz Center

A Steiner, Exec. Dir. UNEP

M Silva, Brazilian Minister of Environment

• EU-COST “HARMBIO” project funded – COST action to harmonize data and scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services – Led by J. Scharlemann UNEP/WCMC

• “Planet under Pressure”, London 2012 - Tipping-points session proposal M. Williams (Global Environment Facility), A. Duraiappah (IHDP), P. Leadley (DIVERSITAS)

• Educational package for tipping-points – P. Leadley

• Paper on tipping-points in preparation

• Collaboration with German research community on tipping-points follow-up…

 

GBO3 Follow-up

TRY/BBS workshop

March 25-29, 2011, Paris

TRY: Refining Plant Functional Classifications for Earth System Modelling (www.try-db.org)

BBS: Advanced prediction of Biome Boundary Shifts in regional and global dynamic vegetation models

Co-organizers: Sandra Dìaz, George Hurtt, Jens Kattge, Sandra Lavorel, Paul Leadley, Heike Lischke, Colin Prentice, Hisashi Sato, Christian Wirth

DIVERSITAS, IGBP, MPI-Jena, GIS-Climat, French FRB, UK QUEST

Linking global change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services at regional and global scales

Both “biodiversity” (e.g., GBO3, TEEB) and “biogeochemical” (e.g., IPCC) assessments are focusing on functional types / habitat changes / vegetation type

changes as the key to understanding global change impacts

Species

Ecosystem Function / Servicesand economic valuation

Functional Groups / Traits

GBO3, TEEB, IPCC, MA, etc.

GBO2 (dose-response)MA (species-area)etc.

Habitats / Vegetation TypeGlobal change

TRY: towards a unified global database of plant traits - DIVERSITAS, IGBP, MPI-Jena, GIS-Climat, French FRB, UK QUEST (Kattge et al. 2011 Global Change Biology)

All plants

Trees

Needle-leaved evergreen trees

Scots pine

Leaf Nitrogen ContentSpecific Leaf Area

• BBS Migration project – H. Sato, H. Lischke, P. Leadley

• BBS Fire project – D. Bachelet, D. Morton, P. Leadley

• Paper on BBS in preparation

• “Planet under Pressure”, London 2012 – “TRY” session proposal

• Push to get several “TRY” modeling projects ready for publication in 2011-2012

• Making links with other trait programs (TRAITNET, E. Garnier, etc.)

• Searching for additional funding (French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity, French ANR DIVGRASS project, …)

• And of course looking towards IPBES

 

TRY/BBS Follow-up

Building a strong support base in France

Programme Phare:  Modélisation et scénarios de la biodiversité

‘Humboldt’ project

Workshop "Eco-evolutionary approaches to understanding and

predicting the response of species and ecosystems to climate change" –

August 2010, Kyushu, Japan – bioGENESIS & bioDISCOVERY

Next workshop planned in Montreal, 2012 (A. Gonzalez, funding?)

WorkshopNovel Models for Biodiversity and ES Scenarios

Brainstorming meetingJune 2011, Portugal

M. Araujo, P. Leadley, I. Chuine, W. Thuiller

Contributions to GEO-BON (C. Krug)

 

• Cornelia Krug has been renewed as the science officer for bioDISCOVERY. 

• Urgent need to renew SC bioDISCOVERY - see nominations

• bioDISCOVERY “office” be hiring two post-docs for scientific and technical assitance part-time on bioDISCOVERY projects (TRY / BBS) 

 

People

BBS - Key needs for improving regional and global vegetation models:

• “Biodiversity” -  more plant functional types-  trait-based modeling - adding variance to means, etc.

• Dispersal and establishment

• Disturbance regimes- Forestry- Grazing- Fire and fire control

• Mortality

• Validation

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Mega-Database TRYDIVERSITAS – IGBP - AIMES – GLP – QUEST– MPG

BiolFlorLEDA

CEDAR-CREEK

Glopnet

DIVERSUS

VISTA

FET

WoodDensity

BIOPOP

KewGardens

CORDOBASEKurokawa

Soussana

Lavorel

Shipley

Reich

GarnierCraine

Chave

Cornelissen

ZLTP

Higgins

ECOCRAFT

RAINFOR

ECOQUA

SID

BROT

Swaine

Fang

Wright

Penuelas

TRY

Chapin

currently2.2 million trait entries for

62.000 plant species

TRY

Modeling component of TRYCurrently >20 proposals to use data from the TRY database

JULESSitchPlant Physiology

SPITFIRESpessa et al.Fire Dynamics

aDGVMHiggins et al.Forest-Savanna Boundary

TRICYCLEvan Bodegom, Brovkin et al.Trait based PFTs

JSBACHZaehle, Kattge, Knorr, Wirth, Reick, Raddatz Plant water balance, Acclimation of PS and Respiration, C-N

ORCHIDEE-NZaehle, KattgeC-N Dynamics

ED-JULESFisher, Woodward, PrenticeBiome-shifts

ORCHIDEEViovy et al.Parameter Evaluation

Global Biodiversity Outlook 3:• Publication of the GBO3 Report & GBO3 Biodiversity Scenarios Technical report - 10 May 2010• Proposed “GBO3” side event - May 2010, CBD SBSTTA 14, Nairobi• Two papers on the GBO3 biodiversity scenarios findings are in preparation Workshop on "Evolutionary responses to global change" - August 2009, Japan – bioGENESIS / bioDISCOVERY.

 Workshop on “Biodiversity Assessement Methods” – October 2010, Europe (tbc)  Workshop on “Novel modeling approaches to predicting biodiversity response to global change” - 3rd or 4th quarter 2010, Spain. 

Workshop - TRY/BBS follow-up - 4th quarter 2010, France.  - PROJECT / PRODUCT ORIENTED – New important sponsor is the FRB (French Foundation for Biodiversity Research)

Etc…

 

Plans for 2010-2011

TRY Database

PlantTrait DB 1

PlantTrait DB 2

PlantTrait DB 3 Plant

Trait DB 1

PlantTrait DB 2

PlantTrait DB 3

AnimalTrait DB n

User

User

AncillaryDB n

FUTURE

PlantTrait DB 1

PlantTrait DB 2

PlantTrait DB 3

TRY Database Manager (MPI)Extraction, quality control, etc.

User QueryFree access dataLimited access data

NOW: TraitNet& “CNRS”Currently working on Semantic Web and Ontologies

Semantic Web(intelligent search engine)

Ontology “Filter”Concepts, Nomenclature, etc.

Global Trait Portal

NOW

Ecological Forecasting Program at NASA

Ecological Model Web

Preparing for iPBES – integrated projections of biodiversity response to global change

IndirectDrivers Economics, Technology, Politics, etc.

DirectDrivers

CO2 & Climate change + Hydrology

Land Freshwater Marine

Bio- diversity response

Land Freshwater Marine

Land use N input etc. Physical

change P input etc. etc.Fishing Nutrient input

Ecosystem response Ecosystem functions and services

DIVERSITAS Strategic Plan

bioGENESIS

bioDISCOVERY

ecoSERVICES

bioSUSTAINABILITY

Evolution, systematics, biodiv informatics

Assessment, observation and modeling

BD <-> EF                            EF<->ES

BD <-> ES <-> HWB <-> Drivers

DIVERSITAS “Specificity” Among ESSP programs