Progress in Large-Shared Projects

7/28/2019 Progress in Large-Shared Projects

1/8

Progress in Large-Shared projects:Method for forecasting and optimizing

project duration in a distributed project

Rameez KHALID,

Alain HAIT,

Philippe DUQUENNELGC - PSI - Dpartement , INPT-ENSIACET, 118 route deNarbonne, 31077 Toulouse cedex 4, France

Plan

Introduction

Literature Overview

Problem Statement

Simulation

Results

Conclusion


2/8

Introduction Large-Shared projects:

Large in respect of: No. of decisions to make, tasks, participants,

significant cost, information size, and substantial risks;

Shared such that: they depend on more than one entity for their

completion and the project (or major parts of it) can be

indifferently distributed to one or another resource.

Transferable Work-load Project:

a project in which work is transferable from one resource to

another even if job processing has started

OBJECTIVE: optimization of project duration with the help ofprogress measurement and redistribution of remaining work.

Literature Overview The references of Project management such as IPMA, PMI and

AFITEP are general.

Every project is unique at some level, which requires specific

methods for its problems.

Every process of the project life-cycle requires proper attention

in managing large-shared or transferable work-load projects.

PROJECT PLANNING

It is an iterative process of developing a preordained plan in aforecasted environment.

Planning can be strategic, tactical and operational.

Planning requires: SOW, specifications, WBS, networks and

schedules.


3/8

Literature Overview MONITORING AND CONTROL

Earned Value Management (EVM): Schedule Variance (SV=EV-PV) and Cost Variance (CV=EV-AV).

Progress Plot [12] : Time on horizontal axis & progress on vertical axis with control lines.

Milestone and Resource slip charts [13] : Uses a No. of review stages at which re-estimations can be done.

Performance indicators: Model for performance evaluation of R&D projects proposed [14].

PMS created for improving supply chain process of Nike in [15].

FORECASTING

It is a process of previewing what will happen by certain time. For predicting the future precisely, accurate knowledge of system andits environment is indispensable.

EVM is an early warning system which alerts during progress.

Problem Statement Problem is related to the Pharmaceutical industry.

Determination of the effectiveness of a treatment.

Patients will be divided among a No. of countries, considering

their population, capacity & competence.

Two stages:Recruitmentand Treatmentof patients.

Three phases of treatment: each phase is of a duration, acertain part of treatment and a different defined cost.

2nd

pa ym en t

Tim e

1 2 3

Treat me nt Phases

1st

p a ym en t


4/8

Problem Statement

Scheduled budget is calculated on the basis of recruitment

planning.

Countries will be paid at every update depending upon the

treatment phase completed by each patient.

As planning ends, actual recruitment data is generated.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze how the system responds in different

situations and thus optimizing project duration.

PLANNING AND BUDGETING Three periods in the execution of a project in S-Curves, namely: learning,

working and ending periods.

Parkinsons Law i.e. Work expands to fi ll the time available.

The point where the learning period ends and the working period start is

known as Point of Inflexion (POI).

Variables:

POI as a pre-specified no. of

patients or duration

The recruitment rate (d)

A number of patients will be

lost or will leave the system

before the treatment ends.

WorkingLearning

Problem Statement

Ending

Time

No. ofPatients


5/8

Problem Statement MONITORING AND CONTROL

Actual recruitment data are produced depending upon the performance (P). Two approaches to this problem, namely: w i t h and w i t h o u t - r e a l l o ca t i o n . Linear programming is used for the reallocation with minimizing the total re-

estimated duration as objective. For the determination ofWhen the real POI wil l occur in time?along with the

rate of recruitment in the working period, a L i n e a r H y p o t h e s i s is used.

where, Schedule Performance Index = IS Planned learning period ends = I Real learning period ends = IR Recruitment Rate for

previewed learning period = d1

Recruitment Rate for thereal learning period = dR1

Time t Tf

Country 1

Country 2

Tf1

N1

N2N2

Re-Planned

N1

t Tf2

Numb

erofPatientsN

N1+N2 = N1+N2

2

2

1

1

d

d

d

d

I

II

RRR

s

Simulation PROGRAM

Program is buil t in Microsoft Excel

with programming in Visual Basic.

If the file of pharmaceutical problem

is opened, F o r m 1 will be shown.

The button Solve if pressed will

generate scheduled budget and

then F o rm 2 will come up.

The button Generate Real Data

will generate real recruitment data.

The frame Point of inflexion:

Achievedprovides a No. of

options to continue this real data

generation till the next update.


6/8

Results ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

The simplest option available for each variable was chosen.

This problem, involving numerous variables, offers interestinginsight for managing transferable work-load projects.

No. of instances are created by changing the values of variables.

For every situation first results are gathered for without-reallocation and then with-reallocation.

W i t h - r e a l l o c a t i o n is the champion approach for optimizingproject duration in transferable workload or shared environment.

Performanceentered for

Without-Reallocation

With-Reallocation

Country 1 & 3 Duration Duration

PlannedDuration

90% & 75% 730 days 669 days

Country 2, 4 & 5 Duration Duration

110, 120 & 70% 1551 days 539 days

547 days

Results ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

We are also interested in finding out When to use reallocation?.

Reallocation is applied on the 1st update after POI and resultswere noted then on the 2nd update and so on.

Transfer costs are also added for the transferred patients.

Cost gets closer to 100% i.e. planned cost as we applyreallocation in later updates.

Duration also gets close to what was planned.

100.2

100.4

100.6

100.8

101

101.2

101.4

101.6

101.8

102

550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900

Actual Duration

%o

fBudgetedCost


7/8

Results & Extension ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

Objective is to study how the system responds in different

situations and thus optimizing project duration.

With-reallocation is an effective approach.

Reallocation used when 2/3 of the project duration passed will

produce better compromise between duration and cost.

EXTENSION

Several avenues as an extension to this problem: a penalty for late project completion;

cost of adding a new country; transfer costs for transferring patients to another or a new country;

these costs can be fixed or with a different cost coefficient

Conclusion Not much attention has been given to the part of planning

for transferable work-load projects, in literature.

For better controlling and monitoring a projects progress,

techniques are still required that expose our planning flaws.

Lessons learned may not be generalized but may be helpful

in the realization of similar goals.

Generalized propositions for further study may be:

improving risk management techniques and their applications

describing project specific management methods.


8/8

Acknowledgment

Thank youfor your attention Questions

Bibliography[1]Project Management Institute, A guide to the project management body of knowledge: PMBOK Guide, 3rd ed. Newtown Square, PA:

Project Management Institute, 2004.[2] P. C. van Fenema and K. Kumar, "Coupling, interdependence and control in global projects," in Projects as Business Constituents and

Guiding Motives, R. A. Lundin and F. Hartman, Eds. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000.[3] B. Egginton, "Multi-national consortium based projects: Improving the process," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 14,

pp. 169-172, 1996.[4] G. Bachy and A.-P. Hameri, "What to be implemented at the early stage of a large-scale project," International Journal of Project

Management, vol. 15, pp. 211-218 1997.[5] R. A. Sprague, K. J. Singh, and R. T. Wood, "Concurrent engineering in product development," IEEE Design & Test of Computers, 1991.

[6] H. C. Zhang and D. Zhang, "Concurrent engineering: an overview from manufacturing engineering perspectives, ConcurrentEngineering: Research and Applications vol. 3, pp. 221- 236, September 1995.

[7] G. Probert, "Projects, people and practices," Engineering Management Journal pp. 141-6, June 1997.[8] R. P. Smith, "The historical roots of concurrent engineering fundamentals," IEEE Transaction on Engineering Management, vol. 44, Feb

1997.[9] H. Kerzner, Project management a systems approach to planning scheduling and controlling, 8th ed. New York: John Wiley, 1998.

[10] Wysocki R and R. McGary, Effective project management, 3rd ed. New York: John Wiley, 2003.[11] N. Hardie, "The prediction and control of project duration: A recursive model," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 19,

pp. 401-409, 2001.[12] M. J. Schmidt, "Schedule monitoring of engineering projects," IEEE Transaction on Engineering Management, vol. 35, May 1988.

[13] B. Elphick, "Linking the use of resources to project progress," Engineering Management Journal pp. 279-282, 1992.[14] A. S. Pillai, A. Joshi, and K. S. Rao, "Performance measurement of R&D projects in a multi-project, concurrent engineering

environment," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 20, pp. 165-177, 2002.[15] C. Lohman, L. Fortuin, and M. Wouters, "Designing a performance measurement system: A case study,"European Journal of

Operational Research vol. 156, pp.267-286, 2004.[16] M. Bourgault, E. Lefebvre, L. A. Lefebvre, R. Pellerin, and E. Elia, "Discussion of metrics for distributed project management:

Preliminary findings," in Proceedings of the 35th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Hawaii, 2002.[17] D. S. D. Jacob and D. Associates, "Forecasting project schedule completion with earned value metrics," The Measurable News 2003,

vol. 1, pp. 7-9, March 2003.[18] F. S. F. Patrick, "Getting out from between Parkinson's rock and Murphy's hard place," PMNetwork, vol. 13, pp. 49-51, 1999.

Documents

Progress in Large-Shared Projects