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Prognos-Report (Multi-Client-Study):
Supply of Gypsum to industry in the context of
the “energy turnaround" in Europe
ASHTRANS EUROPE 2014, Berlin Holger Alwast Prognos AG 1th and 2th of september 2014
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG 2
Agenda
01 Prognos in brief
02 Multi-client study approach (Prognos-report)
03 Status quo of the European energy markets
04 Prognos‘ power market model
05 First intermediate results for the Prognos´ “Gypsum study” – Forecast until 2030
06 Conclusions
07 Contact information for the Prognos-Report
© 2014 Prognos AG
Prognos - Developing the future for 55 years
Chronologicum
3
1959 1965 1979 1980 1997 1999 2003 2008 2009 2014
2009
50-year anniversary of Prognos with celebrations in Basel and Berlin
Book „Der Zukunft auf der Spur“ is published
2003
Christian Böllhoff is announced CEO
Transfer of the Cologne office to Düsseldorf
1997
First Prognos Homepage www.prognos.com online
1979
Foundation of the „Circle of Friends Prognos“
6. October 1959
Formation of Prognos AG in Basel by Prof. Dr. Edgar Salin and friends
2014
Expansion of portfolio „Mobility & Transport” (former ProgTrans AG)
2008
New offices in Munich and Stuttgart
1999
New offices in Brussels and Bremen
1980
New office in Cologne followed by a second German office in Berlin 1986
1965
First Prognos Germany Report is released
© 2014 Prognos AG
Prognos Consultancy Fields
4
Cities & Regions Fierce regional competition for businesses, investments and human capital requires strategies that help ensuring a sustainable future development.
Energy & Climate Protection Policy and business decisions determine the security, environmental effects and cost effectiveness of tomorrow’s energy supply.
Infrastructure & Transport Future-proof planning, development and successful communication of technical infrastructures, incl. power plants (energy markets)
Economy & Innovation Supporting innovation, the key determinant for the future competitiveness of our economy, scientific community and society.
Society & State Supporting individual freedom through stable societies and a sustainable configuration of social security systems.
Economy & Labour We help managing globalisation, demographic changes, labour markets and social security systems.
Reliable information has to be based on experience
and professional expertise
The energy market and raw material experts Experience in all energy markets in Europe
Experience for by-products from power plants and raw materials for recovery and disposal
© 2014 Prognos AG 5 5
2. Multi-client study approach (Prognos-Report)
Availability of raw materials for the European gypsum industry –
Need for a study?
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
Gypsum supply of the gypsum industry in Europe
6
calcium sulphate
Demand of gypsum – direction in which industry is moving?
dihydrate anhydrite
natural gypsum
FGD-gypsum
synthetic gypsum
natural anhydrite
floor screed plasterboard dry powder special gypsum
REACH registration
recycling-gypsum
What is the chance of recycling gypsum in the markets?
REACH registration?
FGD-gypsum
What is the perspective for the markets in the future?
REACH registration?
sources
products
© 2014 Prognos AG
Approach for a multi-client study on the gypsum markets
7
Basic modules:
Reports published by Prognos AG (e.g. German and World Report, Globalisation Report)
Models developed by Prognos AG (e.g. EU power plant model, energy simulation model)
Prognos-Report 2009: (Secondary-) raw material potentials in Europe
locations and main products of the
gypsum processing industry
markets for gypsum products until
2030 (e.g. plasterboard, cement)
gypsum supply (status quo)
natural gypsum deposits
FGD gypsum supply
other synthetic gypsum
gypsum recycling
changes in the European energy
markets until 2030
share of steam coal and lignite of
future energy supply until 2030
scenarios (e.g. without/ with CCS)
FGD gypsum supply within the
countries and in the survey area
until 2030
future supply scenarios for the
gypsum processing and cement
industry until 2030
shares between natural, FGD and
other kinds of synthetic gypsum
recycling of gypsum waste
interim storage of gypsum
scenarios of costs and benefits
Multi-client study
(EU 28 + Norway + Switzerland)
Module 1 Need for gypsum in the markets
Module 2 Impact of the "Energy transition"
Module 3 Need for resources 2030
Aggregation of module-related results
© 2014 Prognos AG 8 8
3. Energy markets in Europe
Status quo of the European energy markets
picture source: Fotolia picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
Energy production in the analyzed 30 states in Europe (1)
9
Total energy production (power and heat) between 2006 and 2011
Source: Eurostat , analysis Prognos
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
hard coal lignite RES nuclear power gas
nuclear power is the lead production with 27.3% (2011): 922 GWh
renewable production have a market share of 25.4% (2011): 860 GWh
hard coal have a market share of 13.6% (2011): 460 GWh
lignite have a market share of 10.2% (2011): 344 GWh
data in GWh
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
Energy production in the analyzed 30 states in Europe (2)
10
nuclear power is the lead production with 27.3%: 922 GWh
renewable production have a market share of 25.4%: 860 GWh
hard coal have a market share of 13.6%: 460 GWh
lignite have a market share of 10.2%: 344 GWh
Total energy production: 3.383 GWh in 2011
Source: Eurostat , analysis Prognos
27.3%
10.2%
13.6%
21.7%
1.3%0.5%
25.4%
nuklear power
lignite
hard coal
gas
fuel/ diesel
waste (not regenerative)
regenerative source (RES)
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
Energy production in the analyzed 30 states in Europe (3)
11
hydropower is the lead production with 58%: 500 GWh
windpower have a market share of 21%: 181 GWh
biomass have a market share of 12%: 102 GWh
photovoltaics have a market share of 5%: 45 GWh
Energy production from regenerative sources: 860 GWh in 2011
Source: Eurostat , analysis Prognos
21%
5%
58%
12%
4%
wind
photovoltaics
hydropower
biomass
others
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
Region: EU 28 + Norway + Switzerland
States in Europe with different types of coal power plants
12
Source: Euracoal 2014, analysis Prognos
BG
RO
GR
FR
ES PT
IT
UK
IE
NO
SE
FI
DK
LV
LT
EE
DE
PL
HU
SK
CZ
AT
HR SL
CH
TR
BE
NL
LU
MT CY
■ States with lignite and steam coal power plants*
■ States only with steam coal power plants
States without coal power plants
States with lignite power plants:
10 (2013)
States with steam coal power plants:
19 (2013)
States without coal power plants:
7 (2013)
*: EE, GR, HU, SL: only lignite power plants
© 2014 Prognos AG
Region: EU 28 + Norway + Switzerland
Lignite and steam coal consumption in states with production
13
Source: Euracoal 2014, estimations Prognos
BG
RO
GR
FR
ES PT
IT
UK
IE
NO
SE
FI
DK
LV
LT
EE*
DE
PL
HU
SK CZ
AT
HR SL
CH
TR
BE
NL
LU
MT CY
30,4
25,5
2,1 1,7
2012 2013
30,2
21,9
1,9 1,8
2012 2013
39,136,0
3,3 2,8
2012 2013
2,4 2,4
2012 2013
166 164
9,8 6,4
2012 2013
9,0
8,8
2012 2013
61,9
54,3
2012 2013
4,4
3,7
2012 2013
63,2 64,652,0 50,0
2012 2013
6,5
2,9
2012 2013
■ States with lignite production and power plants
■ States only with steam coal production and power plants
States without coal power plants
Lignite
Steam coal
Total consumption of lignite
in 10 states with lignite production:
381 Mt (2013); -6% ggü 2012
407 Mt (2012)
15,2
11,6
2012 2013
Total consumption of steam coal
in 7 states with coal production:
77 Mt (2013); -15% ggü 2012
91 Mt (2012)
*: For EE no data are available
© 2014 Prognos AG
Region: EU 28 + Norway + Switzerland
Imports of steam coal to power plants in Europe
14
Source: Euracoal 2014, analysis Prognos
BG
RO
GR**
FR
ES PT
IT
UK
IE
NO
SE
FI
DK
LV
LT
EE**
DE
PL
HU**
SK
CZ
AT
HR SL**
CH
TR
BE
NL
LU
MT CY
■ States with lignite and hard coal power plants**
■ States only with hard coal power plants
States without coal power plants
**: EE, GR, HU, SL: only lignite power plants
2013 (Mt) 2012 (Mt)
Austria * 1,1 1,4
Belgium * 1,1 1,3
Bulgaria 1,7 2,3
Croatia * 1,0 1,0
Czech Republic 1,0 0,9
Denmark * 5,6 3,9
Finland 3,9 2,8
France * 7,0 7,0
Germany 39,9 35,3
Greece 0,1 0,1
Hungary 0,3 0,1
Ireland * 1,2 2,2
Italy 18,0 18,0
Netherlands 9,0 8,9
Poland 8,5 8,6
Portugal 4,2 5,0
Romania * 0,1 0,1
Slovakia * 0,7 0,4
Slovenia * 0,6 0,4
Spain 10,6 20,1
Sweden 1,0 0,7
United Kingdom 43,7 39,8
Others * 0,3 0,4
EU-30 160,6 160,7
Steam coal importsCOUNTRY
** estimations Prognos based on the data from Euracoal
© 2014 Prognos AG 15 15
4. Prognos‘ power market model
Basic for the modelling and the prognosis of FGD-gypsum until 2030
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
The development of electricity prices in Europe is affected by several
factors which are reflected in the model
16
Wholesale electricity
market
Electricity demand
CO2 and climate
protection
Phase-out of nuclear
power
Expansion of
renewable energy
Invest-ment cost
Load shift
European electricity
market
Fuel cost
Calculation of a reference development from our expert perspective or
Sensitivity calculations for individual parameters (prices, policy, demand etc.)
© 2014 Prognos AG
We derive the costs of fuel delivery for power plants from the price
development at the international level
17
Oil and hard coal prices depend on worldwide demand
and extraction costs in the relevant countries, as well as
future freight cost in overseas trade. For this aspect, we
analyse current studies, for example, by the IEA and
OPEC.
In the euro area, prices for oil and hard coal are
influenced by changes in exchange rates, for which we
rely on our own studies.
Scenarios of developments paths regarding prices free
at European border of crude oil and hard coal until the
year 2030.
Derivation of prices for natural gas and mineral oil
products through forward projection of relevant price
linkages taking into account changing import contracts
supply structures. We discuss how the oil-gas price
linkage is likely to develop in the future, considering
international gas market trends.
Calculation of fuel delivery costs free at power plant in
Europe under consideration of domestic freight costs,
processing costs and profit margins.
International price
development
Energy price model
Europe
Oil & coal price free at
states border
Natural gas free at
border
Price
relation ?
Domestic
transport
Delivery prices free at
power plant in Europe
© 2014 Prognos AG
With our European power plant model, we calculate electricity market
scenarios beyond the year 2030
18
Determination of future electricity demand through our energy
demand models
Modelling of the future load curve as well as hourly electricity feed-
in from renewable energy and combined heat and power
Calculation of resulting hourly load, which has to be met by
conventional power plants
Unit-wise adjustment of installed capacity by shutdown periods and
calculation of available power plant capacity
Verification whether the available power plant capacity is sufficient
to meet the hourly load, taking into account a 10% reserve capacity
In case of insufficient capacity, purely economic decision about the
new construction of plants or retrofit of old plants to be retired.
Modelling of hourly power plant utilisation (merit order) on the basis
of fuel costs, variable operating and start-up costs
Calculation of hourly electricity prices given the marginal cost of
the last utilised power plant.
Calculation of the Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC), electricity
prices for the commercial products Base and Peak, as well as prices
for CO2
Load curve
Hourly electricity
demand
Power plant model
Available capacity
New construction /
retrofit
Shortfall in
supply?
Hourly electricity
prices on the basis of
marginal costs
HFC, CO2 prices
Modelling the
merit order
© 2014 Prognos AG
We derive the annual gypsum production from the utilisation of power
plants, their efficiency and fuel gas scrubbing.
19
Modelling of the future annual plant utilisation with the
power market model.
The plant efficiency and the heating value define the
annual primary fuel demand of the power unit in metric
tons.
Together with the flue gas desulfurisation approach
and the primary fuel’s sulfur content, the future annual
gypsum production can be calculated.
The gas desulfurisation approach was gathered through
desk research for most of the large power plants in
Europe.
The average sulfur content for lignite was obtained from
the open cast mining sites in the 10 member states and
company information.
The average sulfur content of the steam coal plants per
country have been evaluated by modelling a country’s
coal portfolio used in power stations based on historic
data, imports of hard coal and company information.
Annual utilisation of
specific power plants
Combustion model
Plant type and
efficiency
Primary fuel
consumption
Heating
value
Flue gas
scrubbing
Annual gypsum
production
© 2014 Prognos AG 20 20
5. First intermediate results for the
Prognos´ “Gypsum Study”
Forecast for FGD-gypsum and other gypsum sources until 2030
- Final results exits end of the year 2014 -
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
Net electricity generation by fuel type in a number of selected
countries (just for example: 16 EU member states - intermediate)
Alle betrachteten Länder
21
782 778 776 764 771 756 711 670 653 620 563 540 501 445 411 366 325 278
255 257 252 243 230 220 216 200 201 204 202 199 192 184 182 178 175 168
516 531 513 471 456 424 432392 317 312 294 281 253
224 219 194 198 188
429 378 362 363 354 380 392 454485 487 529 533 568
594 596 631 631 656
863 904 945 1,013 1,053 1,096 1,140 1,185 1,256 1,300 1,345 1,389 1,435 1,510 1,556 1,602 1,649 1,694
2,901 2,900 2,901 2,907 2,915 2,926 2,938 2,950 2,961 2,971 2,981 2,989 2,996 3,003 3,010 3,016 3,022 3,028
Total RES Other conventional Oil Gas Coal Lignite Nuclear
Source: analysis and estimations Prognos
data in GWh/y
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
7,2 7,16,0 5,3
3,5
4,4 4,3
3,42,5
1,8
8,0 8,3
7,9
7,4
6,4
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
18,00
20,00
22,00
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Germany other EU 14 EU 13; NO, CH
FGD-Gypsum production from lignite and hard coal power plants
All countries, differentiated into olt (EU 15) and new member states (EU 13 +NO, +CH)
22
Source: analysis and estimations Prognos
data in Mt/y
19,6 19,7
17,3
15,2
11,7
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
Domestic gypsum demand in the gypsum plasterboard plants
All countries, differentiated into olt (EU 15) and new member states (EU 13 +NO, +CH)
23
Source: analysis and estimations Prognos
data in Mt/y
2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,1
8,4 8,7 9,1 9,6 10,2
2,22,3
2,32,4
2,6
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Germany other EU 14 EU 13; NO, CH
13,4 13,9 14,4
15,0 15,8
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
FDG-Gypsum consumption in the gypsum plasterboard plants
All countries, differentiated into olt (EU 15) and new member states (EU 13 +NO, +CH)
24
Source: analysis and estimations Prognos
data in Mt/y
1,5 1,5 1,3 1,2 1,1
3,7 3,73,6
3,43,1
1,9 2,02,1
2,12,1
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Germany other EU 14 EU 13; NO, CH
7,1 7,2 7,0 6,7 6,3
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
Recycled gypsum for the gypsum industry per region
All countries, differentiated into olt (EU 15) and new member states (EU 13 +NO, +CH)
25
Source: analysis and estimations Prognos
data in Mt/y
0,2 0,40,6
0,9 1,0
1,21,3
1,6
2,2
2,8
0,20,3
0,3
0,5
0,6
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Germany other EU 14 EU 13; NO, CH
1,6
1,9
2,5
3,6
4,4
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
Natural-Gypsum consumption in the gypsum plasterboard plants
All countries, differentiated into olt (EU 15) and new member states (EU 13 +NO, +CH)
26
Source: analysis and estimations Prognos
data in Mt/y
1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
4,8 4,9 4,9 4,6 4,4
0,8 0,7 0,60,5
0,5
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Germany other EU 14 EU 13; NO, CH
6,6 6,6 6,2
6,1 5,9
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG 27 27
6. Conclusions
picture source: Fotolia
© 2014 Prognos AG
First conclusions for the gypsum markets until 2030
Volumes of FGD gypsum from coal-fired power plants
Until 2030 in Europe the volumes of FGD gypsum from coal-fired power plants will decline
by around 40%.
In Germany the FGD gypsum volume will halve by 2030.
For the other states in Western Europe, the decrease amounts to around 60%.
In Eastern Europe the volumes of FGD gypsum will fall by only 20%.
Needs of the gypsum-processing industry (plasterboard plants)
In Europe the gypsum volumes required by plasterboard plants will grow by 17%,
amounting to almost 16 million tons in 2030.
Within this process, the need for gypsum increases significantly especially in the gypsum
processing industry of Western Europe.
In 2012 the need for gypsum was with 7.2 million tons (about 64%) met by FGD gypsum.
By 2030 this share will be significantly reduced to 6.3 million tons (48%).
Opportunity for the recovery of gypsum from products (gypsum recycling)
For plasterboard plants the recycling of gypsum will increase substantially; from Europe-
wide approximately 1.7 million tons in 2012 to 4.5 million tons in 2030.
Therefore, up to the year 2030 the demand for natural gypsum will decrease slightly by 12%.
28
© 2014 Prognos AG
│ Goethestr. 85 │ D-10623 Berlin
Tel: +49 30 520059-234
mobil: +49160 882 90 234
E-Mail: [email protected]
Holger Alwast
Leader of the section
waste management & secondary raw materials
29
│ Goethestr. 85 │ D-10623 Berlin
Tel: +49 30 520059-237
mobil: +49170 91 968 97
E-Mail: [email protected]
Frank Peter
Senior project manager
7. Contact information for the Prognos-Report
© 2014 Prognos AG 30
www.prognos.com
30
We provide orientation. Prognos AG – European Center for Economic Research and Strategy Consulting