Prof. Peter McKiernan: School of Management, University of St Andrews

‘Thinking Long’ in ‘Managing Change’

Fife Partnership: “The Gathering”The Vine, Dunfermline 2010

Predictable Surprises?

“Nobody saw this coming...S&P and Moody’s didn’t see it coming Bear Sterns certainly didn't see it coming, Merrill Lynch didn’t see it coming. Nobody saw this coming.”

Angelo Mozilo, former CEO and Chairman of Countrywide Financial

“Almost all of us, including me, who were involved in the financial system that is to say, financial firms, regulators, rating agencies, analysts, and commentators missed the powerful combination of factors that led to this crisis and the serious possibility of a massive crisis”

Robert Rubin, former treasury secretary, former Chair of the executive committee of Citigroup’s board of directors

Postcard from the future

Who uses Scenarios?

• Edinburgh City to explore the future of the city• Royal Dutch Shell to anticipate the oil shocks • Grampian Region to assess life after oil• U/Distillers to analyse the spread of Islam in Turkey

• Unilever to form a new channel strategy in Russia

• Scotland to assess the pathways for a new nation

• Jersey to evaluate an e-commerce strategy

• Stirling to integrate several strategic planning exercises

• Fife to inform the Community Plan

• Dyslexia Scotland to inform the 5 year plan

• EU Commission for Future of Automobile Sector

Fife Scenario Process-Overall Aim

Provide scenario planning and related strategic management methods that best

equip Fife Partnership to manage and adapt to change in the next ten year

community planning cycle from 2010.

Key Issue Sub-Issues

Demographics Ageing population; Demographic change; Migration

Economy Current Economic Crisis; Funding; Unemployment

CO2CO2 targets; Associated Climate Change; Impact on Industry

Sustainable Communities Difference between aspirations and reality; current practices are not addressing needs

InequalityPockets of poverty and deprivation; issues around crime

Fife’s Key Drivers

Final Uncertainty Matrix

Sustainable Communitie

s

DemographicsEconomy

Public Sector Reform

Fife Partnership

Infrastructure

Inequality

CO2

Technology

Importance

Uncertainty

Group 1:Quick RecoveryMissing Targets

Group 2:Quick Recovery

Reaching Targets

Group 4:Slow Recovery

Reaching Targets

Group 3:Slow RecoveryMissing Targets

Economy

Carbon Emissions

2 x 2 Scenario Matrix

12

Thank you.