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CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
014
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Productivity 3.0 –Managing the Four Letter Words of
Business (Time, Cash, Risk) the Agile Way
Dr. Boris Oliver Kneisel
Andrena Objects Entwicklertag @ Frankfurt/Main 2014-Feb-19
2. März 2014 1
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Silent Open Assessment: SCRUM vs. MURCS ‚Highway-to-Hell‘ vs. ‚Path-to-Agility‘ – OPTIONS [risks]: DOING NOTHING [ensures erosion] – DOING WRONG [produces ‚fake Agile‘ / „ScrumBut,…“] – DOING RIGHT [no cook-book, just guided steps for EFFECTIVE change towards an envisioned target-state]
2. März 2014 2
Mgmt-by-Order‚Command & Control‘
Un-informed Teamunaware, info-hiding, game-play
Rivalry in Teams / X-teamscompetition instead of cooperation
Customized (Pseudo)-Scrum„Magic mirror on the wall, who runs the nicest SCRUM of all…“
Screwed-up
…takes a while, but a very safe bet…
Member-drivenself-organizing teams
Unifying visionleading by shaping a desirable
world that others want to belong to
Reliable flowsteady delivery of usable &
integrated product increments
CollaborativeReal-cooperation inside teams
& across team-boundaries
Structuredin high uncertainty context, structure (ceremonies/meetings) brings safety
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Managt man unterschiedliche Vorhaben eigentlich alle gleich (‚standardisiert‘)?
Welche Mgmt-Methode sollte wann/wo (Kontext) angewendet werden?
Wo liegen (Haupt-)Unterschiede zwischen verschiedenen Methoden & Techniken?
2. März 2014 3
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Projekt-Kontext bestimmt Methodik (auch Kombination) –Pragmatismus ohne Framework-Prinzipien zu verletzen (Don‘t customize your Scrum…)
2. März 2014 4
simple(plan-driven)
complicated(customer-demanded)
chaos
complex(experience-led)
complicated(technology-aligned)
Far-from-CertaintyClose-to-Certainty
Clo
se-t
o-A
gree
men
tFa
r-fr
om
-Agr
eem
ent
Mat
uri
ty o
f U
ser
Re
qu
ire
me
nts
Maturity-state of enabling Technology
DesignThkng
pure
water-fall
A g i l e
A g
i l
e
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Wenn agile Verfahren nach R. Stacey überwiegend in komplexer Umgebung (z.B. F&E) empfohlen werden…
Worin liegen Unterschiede zwischen ‚encapsulated Scrum‘ und ‚Scaled Agile‘?
2. März 2014 5
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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2. März 2014 6
Far from
CERTAIN
Close to
CERTAIN
Fa
r f
rom
AG
RE
ED
Clo
se
to
AG
RE
ED
Cu
st.
Req
uir
em
en
ts
Technology Maturity
Simple
Chaos
Complicated
Complicated
Complex
WATER-
FALL
Design
Thinking
Core
TeamSingle
Scrum
Team
SOURCE: B.O.Kneisel & A.Presse, Produktivität 3.0 – Agilität als Fortentwicklung tayloristischer Industrialisierung, interPM 2012.
Agiles Projekt, Programm, Produkt & Portfolio Mgmt:Agiles Skalieren – Bau & Betrieb komplexer Produkte (nicht nur SW!) –Ausbau ‚Scaling‘ (=Investment!) nur bei reduziertem Fehlschlag-Risiko
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Welche Facetten weisen KOMPLEXEVorhaben regelmässig auf?
2. März 2014 7
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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EXTERNAL FACETTES(foresight-challenge)
• Desirability (user-needs) • Derived target-groups &
addressable market-potential• Estim. market-demand• Racing-speed (rate of market-
doption (‚Meet vs. Miss‘ a window-of-opportunity)
INTERNAL FACETTES (complexity-challenge)
• Technology (feasible/mature)• Business-case (viable opportunity
vs. disastrous ‚white elephant‘)• Effort : opportunity-size:
(MVP vs. Cost-of-Quality)
Nachhaltiger Erfolg balanciert 3+3 Vorhaben-Facetten – temporäres Übergewichten ist allgegenwärtige Herausforderung an ProductOwner
2. März 2014 8
RISK(FAIL = SUNK COST)
VALUE(push top-line SALES)
TIME (=‚SPEED‘)(minimize TtM, CoD)
GRADE (QUALITY)(BUG = COST-driver)
CASH / COST(fix bottom-line EBIT)
SCOPE(Usage vs. Feat.Creep)
product-market-fit
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Was unterscheidet Productivity 3.0 von klass. Methoden bzgl. Sichtweise & Vorgehen?(die Themen an sich sind nicht neu, sondern seit langem Betrachtungs-Gegenstand im klassischen Projektmgmt)
2. März 2014 9
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Productivity 3.0: Definition
Definition:Simultanes Ausbalancieren mehrerer Facetten etablierter und standardisierter Management-Praxis mit agilen Verfahren unter
• Empowerment der F&E-Basis (‚ScrumTeam‘)
• verkürzten Kommunikationswegen,
• beschleunigter Entscheidungsfindung,
• verringertem Overhead-Aufwand
• Auflösung von Engpässen
2. März 2014 10
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Fokus für hier und heute – ‚TIME-COST-RISK‘Was bedeutet das?
2. März 2014 11
RISK(FAIL = SUNK COST)
VALUE(push top-line SALES)
TIME (=‚SPEED‘)(minimize TtM, CoD)
GRADE (QUALITY)(BUG = COST-driver)
CASH / COST(fix bottom-line EBIT)
SCOPE(Usage vs. Feat.Creep)
product-market-fit
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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TIME-COST-RISK: Old vs. Agile perspective, techniques & counter-measures
OLD SCHOOL-of-thought(and negative highway-to-hell side-effects)
• TIMEFix delivery DEAD-LINE straight (2nd-step after scope-freeze). Define mile-stones, EV-progress-reports, and toll-gates.Q: How do you check ‚real progress‘ and confirm on-time delivery? Mere reports checked in toll-gate meetings surefire lead to late surprises…
• COSTDerive ressources from frozen-scope + dead-lines. Factor-in BUFFER for scope-changes, set-up change-req. procedures. Q: How much buffer is accepted, until Sr.Mgmt gets nervous, calls it ‚PADDING‘ (removes it) – you owe to be ‚committed‘, aren‘t you? Will customers accept ‚scalping for changes‘?
• RISKHave independent risk-audits (e.g. controlling dept). Run regular risk-registry update (R&D-team buy-in ensured, since controlling dept collects quantitative data from R&D).Q: Ever thought of R&D-ressources wasted by funny XLS to be filled-in with ridiculous, random, figures serving ‚pseudo-quantification‘ and CYA-tactics of content-free overhead-roles? What impact to expect of mere no., they don‘t fix any risks in a ‚risk-matrix‘ (another XLS ), but represent a waste-of-over-engineering…
AGILE School-of-thought(and positive path-to-agility side-opportunities)
• TIMEDefine TIME-boxes, align TAKT-cadence. Align frequency to expected amount of change within quarterly horizon (keep takt fixed for 90days to help calm-down the system).H: By developing InCadence with continuous integration, the option to deliver OnDemand is opened-up.
• COSTEarly-stage R&D is dominated by HR-payroll (ongoing for pure SW; for HW/hybrids take costly decisions only after thorough analysis). HR-cost derival: people in teams are treated as ‚given‘ (with all skills & talents); teams have 100% assigned dedicated ressources (no multi-assignment in parallel) – now do the math.H: Typical R&D teams (10 FTE) run at ca.100kEUR/month; HR-cost are treated constant (short-term!). Scope-changes are welcome and extra-cost for change-reqs do not occur (Agile is much cheaper than classic in this respect).
• RISKEstablish transparency & exchange-platforms (sync, visualized artefact, review). In Agile-mode risks are ROAMed (= resolved, owned, accepted, mitigated) & spiked-out early (there is no room for over-processed overhead-driven risk-mgmt functions)H: Well-fitted an Agile approach delivers up to 95% RoI already in the project-kick-off month – this increases up to factor 4x (= 400% the productivity of non-agile work-mode), while standard approaches show only overall 90% write-off risk.
2. März 2014 12
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Manage TIME-CASH-RISK – take an Economic View
2. März 2014 13
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Welche Dimensionen addressiert man beim Skalieren agiler Verfahren?
2. März 2014 14
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Effektivität & Effizienz werden durch kombinierte Methoden gemeinsam & synchronisiert addressiert
2. März 2014 15
Ultimate (UX) –more than new UI
Aligned De-central Ctrl
NEE
DS
UN
KN
OW
NR
EQs
AG
REE
D
EFFE
CTI
VEN
ESS
=
stra
tegi
c d
ire
ctio
n –
colle
ctiv
e e
nvi
sio
nin
g
START
EFFICIENCY = operational excellence – proven ability to execute
HIGHLOW
Stai
rway
-to
-Use
rExp
erie
nce
: fo
cus
use
r-n
eed
s /
ho
listi
cally
ca
ptu
re r
eq
s(t
ry m
eth
od
s lik
e D
T, L
S, U
SM,
QFD
,TR
IZ)
SPRINT
GR
OO
M
SPRINT
GR
OO
M
SPRINT
GR
OO
M
SPRINT
GR
OO
M
SPRINT
GR
OO
M
SPRINT
GR
OO
MCanvas Modelling & UserStoryMaps(USM)
BackLo
g-Estimatio
n&
Release
-Plan
nin
g
Path-to-Agility & Lean:
transparency-inspection-adaptation (Scrum…)
GOAL
SPRINT
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Die vielen Abkürzungen mal aufgelöst, was macht man denn nun wirklich um Productivity 3.0-Potentiale zu heben beim Balanced Agile UX Verfahren?
2. März 2014 16
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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DesignThinking, Canvas-Modelle (Business Model C. / Product C.) & Lean StartUp erzeugen nicht nur ‚next-level‘ User-Erlebnis (UX), sie sind hervorragende Tools zum Frühphasen-Risiko-Mgmt.
2. März 2014 17
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Agiles Portfolio & Plattform Management:Entscheidungs-Kaskade – Treiber der Backlog-Priorisierung
2. März 2014 18
Hig
hL
ow
Low High
Est. value-add to
supplier (‘platform’)
Est.
va
lue
-ad
d t
o c
on
su
me
r
What SHALL be done?
Su
itab
leT
oo
big
Later Soon Now
Selected BackLogLater = Next Release (or even later)
Soon = Future sprints of current Rel.
Now = Next 1-2 sprints of current Rel.B
acklo
g-i
tem
‘re
ad
iness’ (s
ize)
What WILL be done?
Lo
wH
igh
High Low
Est. complexity-to-implement
Es
t. r
isk
-of-
failu
re
What CAN be done?
La
rge
Sm
all
Slow Fast
Est. time-to-market
of competitors
Es
t. m
ark
et
op
po
rtu
nit
y What MUST be done?
What
HAS BEEN
done.
SOURCE: B.O.Kneisel & L.Karg, Paradigma »Agilität« – Lean-Arbeitsmodelle für industrialisierte, projektbasierte Wertschöpfung, interPM 2010.
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Agile UX FLOW-framework (still to be christianized…)
2. März 2014 19
Deliverable Artifacts (iterate inside this box):
START (‚Get & Set‘):• Get DT-CoreTeam, get TeamSpace, set DT-Challenge, set Project-Charter (format e.g. GamePlan)
UNDERSTAND:• Condense desktop-research findings (PESTLE+P5F). Create 1st-draft BusinessModel-Canvas upfront to customer visits. Draft SWOT after customer visit.
DEFINE-PoV:• Visualize observations, derive findings (KJ-diagram + Holtzblatt-
scheme). Draw multi-PoV=User+Need+Insight.
Deliverable Artifacts (iterate inside this box):
IDEATE:• Apply creativity-techn. (PoV-focussed)
CREATE:• Idea-darwinizing (select vital few off trivial many), 2nd-
draft BizModel-Canvas (TOWS-based)
PROTOTYPE:• 5-7-stage prototyping: D-space-explore / critical function visionary dark-horse funkyfunctional XisFinished final demo
TEST:• Iterative flow of FORMATIVE usability-tests; flow
of continuous adaption to user-needs over time
Deliverable Artifacts:
PLAN:• Co-create USM with sizedEPICS & USER-STORIES (ca. 90%-coverage, leave 10% open for changing market-dynamics)
• Agree 3 tidelines (best/real/MVP-case on paper-based USM; no XLS); map USM onto cross-resource NET-CAPA-SUM of Teams = feasibility-check)
• Loop8 = F2F-Rel-Plng
Deliverable Artifacts:
BUILD:• Deliver a usable product-piece each
sprint to combine into a potentially shippable increment (‚PSI‘) after 8 weeks.
• 2 HIP-sprints provide buffer for final feature round-off (bug-fixing = exception-mode, only!); HIP is to achieve market-readiness.
• ScrumTeam enables e.g. field roles in HIP-sprints and pre-pares for the next Release-wave.
Handover to XXL Agile UX Scaling(SAFe, LeSS etc.)
Permanent ‚360°-radar-scan‘: UNDERSTAND CONTEXT (5% ≈ 2h/wk)
DT-loop-1
START:CoreTeamBuilding
(2,5d)
DT-loop-2
DEFINE: UserNeedDistilling
(2,5d)
DT-loop-3
FOCUS:Define
PointOfView
(2,5d)
DT-loop-4
IDEATE:Creation &Selection
(2,5d)
Ongoing ‚deep-sonar-scan‘: (10% ≈ 4h/wk ≈ 2d/8wks, i.e. 1-2 visits per TeamMember per qrtr) early-stage: OBSERVE / late-stage: USABILITY-TEST-mode
DT-loop-5
DARWINIZE:
Idea-shape & Refining
(2,5d)
DT-loop-6
REVIEW:Prio Reqs &
integrate prototypes
(2,5d)
DT-loop-7
SHAPE BL:USM, sizing,E2E-pivots, define MVP
(2,5d)
DT-loop-8
PLAN-REL:2d-WrkShp sync 50-125
Developers
(2,5d)
BUILD + DELIVER
Rel. (N-1)8 weeks
START (2,5d)
DEFINE (2,5d)
IDEATE& CREATE
PROTOTYPE & CRAFT
(productive-capa: 30+10d ≈67%)
BUILDDEV-sprints
(6x1wk sprint)
DELIVERHIP-sprints
(2x1wk)
Re
l. (
N+1
)
Rel.N: DT-loops initiate Quarterly-Release (DT gross-duration 4 wks ≈ 33% capa)
Re-Cap+PRIO
(2,5d)PLAN Release
(2,5d)
(block 10d = 2 wk)
Problem-space exploration, User-need finding, Focus definition
Solution-Prototyping & Back-Log Structuring
Continuous Time-stream
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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APPENDIX – bekannte Agile Scaling frameworks, die mit Productivity 3.0 kombinierbar sind (offene Positiv-Liste)
2. März 2014 20
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Scaled Agile Framework ‚SAFe‘ (D.Leffingwell)
2. März 2014 21
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Large Scale Scrum ‚LeSS‘ (C.Larman)
2. März 2014 22
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Agility Path (K.Schwaber)
2. März 2014 23
CygnAX Acceleration ◊ Innovation ◊ Delivery ◊ Agility contact: email: [email protected], tel. +49-152-5408 9132© 2
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Kontakt für Services zu Consulting, Training, Mentoring & Coaching
2. März 2014 24
Thanks for listening…
Dr. rer. nat. Boris Oliver Kneisel, MBAUsability (UX/IX) & Requirements Engineer
CPRE/CPUX, CSP (CSM/CSPO), PMP®/PRINCE2®-P
Consulting – Training – Mentoring – Coachingprofile, skills & interests: www.Boris-Kneisel.de
contacts: [email protected] / +49-(0)152-5408 9132