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Process Improvement with Solitaire
Using the PC Solitaire game to learn basic (and advanced) techniques of
Process Improvement
(So easy, even a can do it)
Presented by: Mark Berron, CQE, CSQE, 6ơ BB
Contact: [email protected]
Benefits of using Solitaire
• It gives the user a hands-on experience of creating and using data.
• The processes are simple
• The processes can be improved
• The process improvement can be measured.
• Even Six Sigma techniques can be learned
• It’s easy!!!
What we’ll do today…• What are the Solitaire Requirements??• Process mapping• Play Solitaire • Brainstorming on Improvements• Play more Solitaire• Measure the improvements• Translating this to your work processes• What this can mean to your bottom line…• For further information…
Requirements
• Objective is to get highest score (No time limits). Technically this is putting all cards into the Upper Deck by their respective suits.
• Basic process is: New cards go to Upper Deck. If can’t be played there, they are played on Lower Deck in alternative colors in descending order. If they can’t be played on the Lower Deck, then a new Card is chosen.
• The lowest Card in a Column in the lower Deck must be moved to the Upper Deck if possible and before choosing a New Card. When a column in the Lower Deck becomes empty, only a King can be moved there.
• Every card from the Lower Deck must be played until all options exhausted. Then a New Card is chosen.• When there are no more cards in the Playing Deck, or if all cards are in the Upper Deck, the game is over.
Lower Deck (LD)
Upper Deck (UD)Playing Deck (PD)
Definitions:
Rules (Defined)
New Card
Columns
Process Map
Choose New Card
Put in LD
Put in UDMove it to Upper Deck?
Play Rest of LD to UD
Y
N
Move it to Lower Deck?
Y
N
Any cards left?
Y
N
End Game
Record score
• What is a process map? ISO?• Here’s the process map for Solitaire:
Open game
Now, let’s play
• Use standard type of play
• Las Vegas Scoring
• No timing
• One card at a time
• Don’t think, just do.
• And observe. Maybe take notes.
Value Stream MappingBased on what you have seen, what does each step contribute to the
process? Let’s make a Value Stream Map (VSM) from the previous Process Map…
Choose New Card
Put in LD
Put in UDMove it to Upper Deck?
Play Rest of LD to UD
Y
N
Move it to Lower Deck?
Y
N
10
5
10
Any cards left?
Y
N
End Game
Record score
Open game
Brainstorming• Based on what you have seen, what are
possible improvements??Here are some ideas I have: • Do another pass?• Instead of moving new cards directly to
Upper Deck, first move them to Lower Deck.
• Let cards move from column to column• Let cards go from upper to lower deck• Don’t play out all cards before New Card
Which ideas do we try?
• What is potential of each improvement?
• How is it measured?
• How much does it cost?
Improvement potentialFirst, what’s the baseline?:
The one pass.
I chose four improvements:
1. Second pass
2. Let new cards go down to columns before going to upper deck
3. Allow cards to be moved to any column on bottom deck
4. Allow cards to be returned to columns from top finished deck.
VSM 1st improvementAdd the second pass to the process…
Choose New Card
Put in LD
Put in UDMove it to Upper Deck?
Play Rest of LD to UD
Y
N
Move it to Lower Deck?
Y
N
10
5
10
Any cards left?
Y
N
End Game
Record score
Open game
-100
Click on PD?
Y
N
Measuring the improvements
Basically, two ways to measure:1. Play out each improvement over a
number of rounds.2. Play out all improvements over a known
design (DOE).
The 2nd choice saves time and money, but is it accurate? Will it tell you which improvement is really best?
The long way…
• Here are the results of going through each improvement 100 times, with each adding on to the next. Thus number 2, has both 1 and 2 improvements included.
• For every improvement, scores were recorded for both one pass and two passes.
Some data…..
Some typical data gathering…
Some basic charts
• Trend lines– Mean– Standard deviation – Number of wins – Average winning score
Tracking the mean… Trend Chart
Means over 4 experiments
37
60
65
73
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
1 2 3 4
Experiment
Sco
re
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mea
n d
iffe
ren
ce
Mean 1
Mean 2
Mean diff
Mean 1 = One passMean 2 = Two
Standard Deviation and Means
2nd pass higher Scores and Means
Number of high scores actually goes down, but average is higher. Why?
2nd pass winning scores vs. mean
What does it mean???Means over 4 experiments
37
60
65
73
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
1 2 3 4
Experiment
Scor
e
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mea
n di
ffere
nce
Mean 1
Mean 2
Mean diff
Mean 1 = One passMean 2 = Two
The summary data is:
The 1st improvement appears to be the most significant The 2nd improvement appears to be the 2nd most significantThe 4th improvement appears to be the significant on the first passThe second pass increases improvements except in 4th caseMean 1 Factors show some effects of interaction.
What about DOE??
Results across the variables
Pareto Chart of DOE
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Series1
Comparing DOE to actuals• Both show A as the best option.• Actuals show B as 2nd best while 3rd in
DOE.• Actuals show C as a small or negative
influence, while it ranks only 6th in DOE.• Actuals show D with a medium influence,
while DOE shows it as fourth. • DOE shows a big BC interaction, but the
actuals show none or negative.
More basic analysis
What else can be learned?
• Cost/Benefit: Compute cost of the improvement by assessing the added time. How does the cost compare to added score over time?
• Risk: Assess the risk of taking on an improvement. The 2nd pass creates a lot more volatility. Is it worth it??
• What is the probability of success on the 2nd pass? How would you figure that out?
Compare to the real world…• What process do you have at work that
would benefit from process improvement.• What process needs a VSM?• Why not use ISO process as the baseline
for process improvement? Or CMMI?• Brainstorm for improvements.• Find out which has the most weight… the
low hanging fruit. How much will it cost?• Then do it!!!!
What other techniques can be learned from Solitaire?
• ANOVA• X-Bar and R charts• Probability • Ishikawa (Cause and effect diagrams)• Taguchi, Latin Square, partial factorial
designs• 5S (Clean up the process)• And more….
Xbar-R Chart
X-bar R Chart
Further information
• I am in the process of creating a training manual along with an Excel-based data collection/analysis program. It should be complete by end of August 2007. If you might be interested in a follow up session or the materials themselves, please let me know and I will forward a version to you. My email address is: [email protected]