Proceedings on the 20th November, 1888Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 51, No. 4 (Dec., 1888), pp. 701-703Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical SocietyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2979069 .

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1888.] 701

PROCEEDINGS on t7he 20t7b NOVEMBER, 1888.

MR. ROBERT GIFFEN said it was his pleasing duty to ask the members to give a very cordial vote of thanks to Dr. Balfour for the excellent and most interesting address which he had delivered. He should like to say first of all that they had very great pleasure in welcoming Dr. Balfour amongst them as their President. As some of them knew, Dr. Balfour had a good deal to do with military statistics many years ago when they began to assume their present form. Dr. Balfour had told them something of the different branches of these statistics, and the investigations with which he was connected; but if it had not been for his modesty he might have said with regard to this and a great deal more to which he had not referred, "Quorum pars magna fui." Dr. Balfour had read to them at different times various -interesting papers, and they knew him as having practically done a great deal to organise the excellent army statistics that they possessed. The army statistics to which he had referred, this being the jubilee of their publication, were in some respects a model of statistical arrange- ment. It was a great pleasure to the Society to be able to welcome Dr. Balfour as their President. With regard to the address they had just listened to, he was quite sure that it was unnecessary to say anything in praise of the treatment of the various topics which Dr. Balfour had brought before them. To some of those topics, however, he might be allowed to refer. First of all, althouglh it was hardly a special matter of the address, it was very interesting to them as a Society, and it was only right that they should give expression to their satisfactiona at the account which bad been given them of their prosperity in respect of numbers. Of course the more their niumbers increased the more their income increased, and the more satisfactorv statistical work he hoped they would be able to do. He might take the opportunity of suggesting that before long it would be possible for the Society to use some of its means in promoting statistical investigation of a direct kind; if they had sufficient income there was some good work to be done in that way. Another topic which had been brought before themn was one upon which something might be said by those who moved a vote of thanks upon that occasion, that was with reference to the deaths of the two gentlemen which he had mentioned as having taken place since the last meeting in June. Those especially who knew Mr. Purdy would be able to echo everything which Dr. Balfour had said with reference to him. Mr. Purdy, although he had not been for many years able to attend their meetings, in the days when he (Mr. Giffen) became connected with the Society was really a great man amongst them, one of their most hard- working statisticians; and did a great deal to promote the welfare of the Society. Ho had arrived at an age at whicli his life

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Proceedings on the 20th November, 1888. [Dec

could not be expected to be prolonged, but they ought always tc remember the work of those who bad done so much good servicc as Mr. Purdy had done. Coming to the special topics of the address which Dr. Balfour had given, they were specially indebted to him for bringing forward the points connected with a special function of the Society, that of criticising methods of statistics. As they all knew, there was nothing more common amongst public men, nothing more common amongst party politicians, than to take up little bits of statistics on the principle that anythiing was gool to beat a dog with, and to throw out anything to the public which seemed to be in their favour, without examination and without investigation. Against that mode of using statistics the Society, ought to protest continually, and it was very satisfactory that Dr. Balfour in his opening address had called attention to the difficulty of using statistics properly, and to the necessity for the utmost care in dealing with figures. The various illustrations which Dr. Balfour had given were most striking and useful, and he hoped in thus dealing not only with the special statistics which he mentioned but with other statistics, they would all remember that this question of method and of the logical treatment of figures was of very great importance. The two illustrations he gave as to the difficulty of deductions inferring the decay of the physical strength of the population from certain data as to recruiting, and as to inferring too much from the benefit of sanitary measures, were both remarkably good and striking. He should set the more store by the latter, because no doubt some people were tempted in promoting measures for the public benefit to overstrain the argument, and nothing was more dangerous. Because sanitation was a good thing, there was not the slightest reason why statistically the case for sanitation should be overstated, and Dr. Balfour had done good service by bringing forward the purest statistical and scientific point of view. It would also be most useful that he had done something to show the valuable service which statistics might render in so important an administrative work as that of the army. A good many of them might also have been enlightened a little as to -the reason of the popular belief in the longevity of public annuitants. It really was worthy of observation that the longevity might be to some extent illusory, *a.d that it was a matter entirely for investigation rather than for accepting the apparent fact without investigation. The importance of this question with regard to the future was also justified by what Dr. Balfour had called attention to, the increasing practice of giving annuities which were to be charged upon the public funds. There was no, doubt it would be a matter of the -utmost importance to see, as those annuities and pensions were increased, that they were not paying dead men's pensions. A good many of them had had some experience perhaps, not exactly in connection with annuities but in other ways; he had some experience himself not exactly of pensioners living to a great age, but of salaries being drawn in the name of people who bad long ceased to do the work, and who were really getting the work done by other people. Abuses of that kind were always likely to grow up, and it certainly was important that

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1888.] Proceedings on the 20th November, 1888. 703

they should be brought to book by statistics by those who had the power of looking into those matters. It was unnecessary to dwell further upon the topics which Dr. Balfour had brought before them, and he was sure the members would join in giving him a cordial vote of thanks for the address he had given to them.

Dr. MOUAT said it had fallen to his lot, unexpectedly, but it was a great pleasure to him that it bad dolne so, to second the vote of thanks to Dr. Balfour. The terms in which it had been pro- posed by Mr. Giffen left him very little to add, but he might tell them something on the subject which was known to himself and to few if any of those whom he wvas addressing, viz., that with reference to the vital statistics of the British army mentioned in his address, Dr. Balfour was selected long ago by authority for a new office then created in connection with the War Department, in conjunction with the late Sir Alexander Tulloch. He was so selected by one of the most able medical officers in the army at the time, on account of his special aptitude for the work to be performed. Dr. Mouat had abundant opportunity of studying those statistics at the time of their appearance, and he had no hesitation is stating that no other army in Europe possessed so valuable and trustworthy a record of their vital statistics at a time when comparatively little attention was paid to such subjects. A very large share, indeed he believed the principal part of the credit. attaching to those valuable reports, was due to the know- ledge of the officer selected, who fully realised the expectations then formed of him. In his subsequent long and distinguished service he has afforded ample evidence of his claim to distinction as a trustworthy guide in statistical inquiries, and now, at the end of his public career, the estimation in which he was held has been emphasized by being placed at the head of this Society, a post to which he has just given good proof of his fitness by the excellent address to which they had listened with so mruch pleasure, and he hoped profit.

The resolution was carried by acclamation.

The PRESIDENT said he begged to thank them for the very kind manner in which they had received his address. He also wished to express his obligations to Mr. Giffen and Dr. Mouat for the gratifying terms in which they had spoken of his labours, which he thought were only too flattering.

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