Problems Facing When Applying Quantitative Methods to the Study of Political Phenomena

8/7/2019 Problems Facing When Applying Quantitative Methods to the Study of Political Phenomena

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University of Greenwich

School of Social Science

Methodology Unit

(MA)

Essay:

What problems do we face in applying quantitative methods to

the study of political phenomena?

Abdisalam M Issa-Salwe

May 1996


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Contents

Pages

Introduction 3

Why these Arguments are Appropriate to the Main Topic? 4

The Problems Facing The Research 4

How Quantitative Analysis is Applied 5

Case One: Peace-Making Endeavours of Contemporary Lineage Leaders 6

Evaluating the Data 10

Table 1: Major Elders Reconciliation Conferences in Somaliland, 1991-93: 6

Type of Conflict 5

Case Two: Brief Background of the Traditional Authority 8

Political Leaders Overtakes Traditional Elders 10

Sixties leaders still in charge: 11

How the People Feel About The Crisis 11

Conclusion 12

Notes 13

References 13


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Introduction

As politics is a widespread activity which take place in all sphere of human activity, it requires a structured

study method. The different approaches to political science are associated with particular ways of producing

knowledge. The fundamental purpose of theory is to explain, make easy to comprehend and interpret reality.

Without theory, it is impossible to comprehend, understand or interpret the reality.

Naturally, observation is an important part of political analysis. However, without a supposed theoretical

framework political studies are not possible.

In this essay I will examine two different aspects of the current Somali crisis. In the first I will explore a peace

survey in the North-Western Somali region (a region which unilaterally seceded from Somalia, calling itself

the Somaliland Republic). In the second part I will look at the Somali leadership crisis. This analysis leads on

to the second problem where I will look a research conclusion made by Somali scholars. The study makes a

statistical analysis, concluding that after six year of conflict the Somali have no more appetite for war.

Why these Arguments are Appropriate to the Main Topic?

Both case studies are based on statistical data which draw conclusion about the feeling of the Somali people

after a traumatic civil war. By quantifying the political process, in both case the researchers apply the same

methods. On the other hand, both are related to each other, as in the first they are the elders or community

leaders, who are the decision makers of the society.

In the traditional society, elders were able to solve their own disputes, by dealing or negotiating with each

other. However, they were unable to solve the problem at national level as this did not within their sphere of

influence. At the national level we have the modern politicians who are the main authors of the current

Somali plight.

As quantitative methods are based upon the analysis of quantity and related statistical evaluations by applying

data that are highly political in content, these studies uses quantitative data.

How Quantitative Analysis is Applied

As the name implies quantitative methods are another approach to the study of political processes where the

primary concern is quantitative data analysis. Quantitative approaches are most strongly associated with

Behaviourists work and Rational Choice theory.1

Behaviourist, given their concern with aggregate individual

behaviour, find quantitative methods more suitable.


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Although such experiments can be conducted under observation process, at the end experiment involves

manipulation, thus creating a situation where data cannot be authenticated. Much of the value of data analysis

begins when the prospect of data collection and analysis forces researchers to clarify their concepts and

distinguish between researchable data on one hand, and non- researchable on the other.

The Problems Facing The Research

Laboratory experiment can be handled in a closed environment where the outcome can be studied carefully.

However, when it comes to a political observation, the researcher has a limited control on the situation. On

other the hand, there may be various other situations or factors which can affect the political events.

Another important argument is whether the data is first hand (or primary analysis) or second hand data

(secondary analysis) or even third or fourth and so on. Although primary analysis can be made by holding a

direct observation and experiment, it cannot be fault proof.

How about second or third hand data analysis? At this stage the researcher has a limited freedom and

responsibility. The researcher is bound to use the existing data as he/she may not be able to free her/himself

from the conceptual framework, the mind-set, the priorities and perspectives created by the needs of the data

concerned.

Undertaking first hand research may be very expensive and time consuming. Available data (secondary

analysis) has the advantage that it may not require the time and attention demanded by primary analysis.

However, its disadvantage is in the outcome of the analysis.

Quantitative data at a given time cannot be applied to another similar situation. Other political events may

alter the situation.

In the second case study the author (authors) try to use sampling as a conclusion. Sampling involves using

small, carefully chosen samples to represent a much larger population and is one type of quantitative data

processing. This type of data collecting, however, cannot be mistake proof.

CASE ONE

Peace-Making Endeavours of Contemporary Lineage Leaders

The survey was concentrated only to Sanaag region, a region in the north-west part of Somalia former

British Somaliland (see map). Since the advent of the collapse of the Somali state, this region declared itself

independent.


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The survey was funded by Action Aid, an NGO (non-governmental organisation) based in Britain. The

objectives of the survey were to help the Action Aid and other NGOs to manage better their help and work in

this region. Other objectives included the justification of Action Aids help, to demonstrate that this part of

Somalia is worth helping and that its aid was helping to reinforce the reconciliation and peace process which

had been going on for some time.

The researcher, Ahmed Yusuf, a native social anthropologist, undertook a six week field trip in Erigavo

(Sanaag capital region), Hargeisa (the self-proclaimed Somaliland Republics capital), Awdal region, another

northern Somalia region.

The scholar wanted to start by observing a peace conference which at the time of his research was going on in

Borame (Awdal region principal town). Unfortunately, he was denied the chance. He compiled the data on the

Borame Peace Conference from people who were engaged in the secretarial work of the conference. The

researcher claims to have obtained valuable information through informal and open discussions with lineage

leaders at various levels of political segmentation, and other social groups, among them, intellectuals,

politicians, poets, religious men and some women.

The peace conference, which began on 24 January 1993, was initially started to solve disputes between local

clans. But later into developed to a regional conference and continued until mid-May.

Type of Conflict

The types of conflict which the study examines are: (1) pastoral conflicts over pastureland, (2) conflicts over

arable land in settled areas, and (3) political conflicts as a result of competition for political dominance and

access to limited resources among major Isaq groups.

In the North-Western Region (the self-proclaimed Somaliland republic, see map), live three main clan-

families: Dir, Isaq, and Darod. The Isaq form the largest of the groups, and occupy the central part of the

region. The Dir group reside in the west, and the Darod in the east.

The traditional system of governance that relies primarily upon moral authority of lineage leaders and the good

will of their kinsmen, had limited power to effectively maintain peace and prevent the occurrence of crime and

violence.


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Table 1: Major Elders Reconciliation Conferences in Somaliland, 1991-93:


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The researcher acknowledges the constraints on the traditional peace making process. These pressures also

hinder the practical implementation of many useful items that are formally agreed by the reconciling parties.

Nevertheless and quite surprisingly, he concludes that these formidable constraints, have, so far, failed to

derail the impetus for reconciliation and peaceful coexistence between the local communities.

Driven by a nationalistic endeavour to salvage the self proclaimed state of "Somaliland" from unprecedented

and senseless ruinous turmoil, and to escape from the shame and disgrace that ensues from the failure of a

cause supported by the public at large traditional elders strive, under considerable pressure and against arduous

difficulties, to maintain peace. This grassroots local level approach to peace, started with a series of inter clan

reconciliation conferences as early as 1991. Then it gradually progressed to district, regional and national

levels in which the collective service of the elders of the major clans reconciled particularly difficult cases that

had failed to be resolved by the parties concerned.

For instance in the Sheikh district the reconciliation conference represented the turning point of the elders

peace effort, which reached its height at the Borame conference. In the latter, a national peace charter that

incorporated the provisions of the series of compacts between the local clans, was formulated. Because of the

realisation that their peace functions cannot effectively succeed without effective support of a modern

administration, the elders expanded their natural peace functions to tackle the complex task of building an

executive interim government and a national charter, an unprecedented event in modern Somali history.

Considering these laudable achievements, as the observer claims, it is no wonder that the elders installed

themselves in the structure of the interim government, which consists of three councils: the council of elders,

constituent assembly (elected council) and council of ministers.

The sustained effort of lineage and clan leaders firmly established an encouraging tendency, in which peaceful

dialogue is favoured as a means to settle legitimate grievances in lieu of the use of force. Individual acts of

violence are constrained not only by the legal ruling which places responsibility upon the offender, but also by

the predictable condemnation of kinsmen and opposition of implicated social units. Legal contracts

promulgated by a series of peace conferences, define political and socio-economic relations between local clans

in contemporary northern Somalia.

The following summarises the general achievements of the peacemaking process. The particular achievements

of the peace endeavour in the nomadic areas were presented early in the text.

Evaluating the Data

By evaluating the various tables and data, Ahmed Yusuf examined the achievements which the traditional

peacemaking process promised which had been agreed between the reconciling parties from different groups

and locations, concluded that peace would prevail henceforth. However, the facts do not speak for themselves


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but only make sense in the context of a framework of investigation. His conclusions were disapproved by

subsequent events.

CASE TWO

Brief Background of the Traditional Authority

Like many African nations at the end of the eighties, Somalia faced economic, social and political problems. But

Somalia could not solve its problems as a healthy nation. Instead the problems which led to its disintegration and

dismemberment with a bloody civil war.

The crisis created a void of social norms, which consequently led the individual Somali into total disarray, as well as

mental and moral confusion. This socio-political chaos has caused the breakdown of Somali institutions.

The research was looking the role of both the Somali traditional and the modern leadership and how they respond in

modern Somali social life to the changing socio-political realities. The central topic was, the Somali and the modern

state: the contradiction between the Somali clanship system and the principle of a nation-state.

In my quest for the answer, I have concentrated on the kinds of leadership and their role. Then I have postulated the

assumption that the behaviour of man varies according to the type of political order. To determine the social crisis to

look the role of social institutions in determining man's behaviour was very important. To examine the social crisis,

to look at the role of social institutions in determining mans behaviour was very important.

For Somalis the clan is the most important political unit in the traditional system. It is traced through males to a

common male ancestor from whom they take their clan name. The traditional political loyalties are reinforced by a

political-legal contract, by which Somali society settles its legal and political disputes.

The Somali pastoral-nomads have no hierarchical system, unlike their brethren the agro-nomads. Before the creation

of the modern state, political authority was spread throughout the community as a whole. As there was no centre for

political control, authority was never institutionalised.

Any vital issue concerning the nomadic community is discussed in the institutionalised shir (assembly), where, after

deep discussion and analysis of the matter concerned, decision in the assembly is decided by consensus.

What role does the leader play in the community? In fact, the clan-head presides over the assembly of elders but does

not make decisions. All adult males are elders and they are empowered by contractual treaty to direct the policies of

the lineage.


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Clan leaders deal with people politically only on a face-to-face basis hence weakening the authority. This weak

traditional authority might extend over people with whom they do not normally come into contact only if kinship

relationship exists between them. Clan leaders are responsible for all affairs concerning the clan and its relations with

other clans. They claim no rights as rulers over their people. They preside, rather than rule over people to whom they

are related. Lewis reiterates this matter in A Pastoral Democracy, "... even the office of clan-head is

generally little more than a nominal title corresponding to the degree of social and territorial exclusiveness which the

clan more than other orders of grouping possesses."2

When the clan-head dies, an assembly is held to select another leader. Most of the time the succession is peacefully

elected. But sometimes he might not. Somali oral history is full of conflict for the office of the clan-head between the

various lineage. This happened especially when the challenging lineage claim their superiority of manpower. This

has often led to bloody confrontation or ended with the challenging lineage making their own lineage-head.

With the advent of modernity and the nation-state, political parities were introduced. However, the system fell short

of what the Somali people expected to get from the democracy exercise. Instead, party politics generated intense

hostility among clans and lineages throughout the whole country.

Political Leaders Overtakes Traditional Elders

Once in old age, any Somali is qualified as an elder. However, elders do not traditionally exercise authority by virtue

of their position, but only by virtue of their personal qualities. Except for a few percentage, I found that the

majority of the most prominent faction or regional leaders are politicians of the early fifties and late sixties.

Sixties leaders still in charge:

Mohamed Farah Aydiid (South Muqdisho and part of Central Somalia, former army officer)

Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed (Central regions, former army officer)

Mohamed Ibrahim Egal (former Prime Minster, Western Regions - Somaliland )

Mohamed Abshir Muuse (North-Eastern Regions, former police commander)

Abdulqadir Adan Mohamed (Bay regions, riverine area, former political party leader)

Ali Mahdi Mohamed (South Muqdisho, former parliamentarian)

Mohamed Rajir (Old Muqdisho, former law officer)

Abdirahmaan Mohamed (Tuur) (North-Western Somalia, former political activists)

By detaching themselves from the traditional kind of leadership, the political ambitions of the old generation

are still alive.


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One of the pitfall of the survey is the conclusion from the various peace meeting as a measurement to the

peoples need to settle their disputes. People do not always give a clear view of their ideas. Correlation may be

established quite easily but their causal nature remains in doubt. Surveys show a high correlation between

peoples' readiness for peace and what action they think about.

Another criticism of quantitative methods is their failure to reveal meaning. Can quantitative methods do

anything to establish meaning? Critics argue that quantitative methods may establish 'what' and 'when', but not

'why': motivations and meanings are inevitably hidden. It is a criticism that is either universal or invalid: if

motivations can be established in relatively unstructured qualitative conversations then, in principle, they can

also be established in the more controlled interviews typical of quantitative research - provided those

interviews cover the right ground and ask the right questions.

While asking people directly about their motivations is as possible in quantitative studies as in any other, it

remains highly suspect because people are not usually very good at introspection.

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2 I M Lewis, A Pastoral Democracy, p. 38.

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References

W. L. Miller, Quantitative Methods, in David Marsh and Gerry Stoker, eds., Theory and Methods in

Political Science, (London: MacMillan Press, 1995).

Somali Democratic Republic, Analytic Volume: Census of Population 1975, Ministry of National Planning,

Central Statistical Department, Mogadishu, January 1984

Ahmed Yusuf Farah, Somalia: The Roots of Reconciliation, 1993.


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Issa-Salwe, A M; The Collapse of the Somali State: The Impact of the Colonial Legacy, (London: Haan

Associates, 1994).

Manheim, B. Jarol and Rich, C Richard; Empirical Political Analysis: Research Methods in Political Science,

4th ed., (New York: Longman, 1981).

Laitan, David D; and Samatar, Said S; Somalia: Nation in Search of a State, (London: Westview Press, 1985)

Lewis, I M ; A Pastoral Democracy.

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Problems Facing When Applying Quantitative Methods to the Study of Political Phenomena