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ProblemSolvinginAfrica:HowFemaleEducationCanHelpKeepthePlanetonaSustainableTrajectory

Recipient:Mr.LiuZhenmin,

Under-SecretaryGeneralforEconomicandSocialAffairs(DESA)

Date:22ndofApril2018

Justification:

AstheheadofUNDESA,Mr.ZhenminactsasanadvisortotheSecretary-GeneralonbothSocialandEnvironmentalissues,aswellasbeingresponsiblefornurturingkeypartnerships

withgovernments.Thisenableshimtopitchthesesuggestedpoliciestothetargetedcountries,aswellasarguingfortheirimportanceintheUNheadquarters.

Photo: Plan Canada

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EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Astheworldisfacingapossiblepopulationincreaseofmorethan20billionpeopleinthecoming70years,ourspeciesisputtinganincreasingpressureontheworld’snaturalresources.Sofar,ourabilitytoovercomenaturallimitationstogrowthbytechnologicaladvancementshasmadethisexponentialincreasepossible,anexamplebeingtheHaber-Boschprocessfacilitatingtheuseofnitrogenfertilizersforourcrops.Yetevenourtechnologicalinventionshavestartedtoreachascalewhereanegativeimpactontheplanetisinevitable,causingscientiststointroducetheconceptofPlanetaryBoundariesasanattempttofindsustainablelimitstoourgrowth.Yetifourcurrentgrowthrateswouldcontinue,itishighlyunlikelythatanyoftheboundarieswillstayintact.Thus,ifwewanttoeasethepressureweputonthisplanet,areductioninourcurrentpopulationgrowthisvital.However,astherighttohaveafamilyisacorehumanright,thisisamorallydifficultandoftenavoidedtopic,evenmoreafterthesubsequentgenderdiscriminationfollowingChina’sOne-ChildPolicy.Thus,byintroducingindirectwaystolimitpopulationgrowthtothegovernmentsofcountrieswheretheratesarecurrentlythelargest,thenegativestigmasurroundingreducedfemalefertilitycanbeavoided.Thiscanbedonebyimplementingpoliciesofferingconditionalcashtransferstofamiliessendingtheirchildrentoschool,asespeciallyincreasedfemaleliteracyrateshaveproventoreducefertility,whilesimultaneouslyimprovingotherSDGsrelatedtoeducationandgenderequality.

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EMPIRICALANALYSISOverthelasttwelveyearstheworldhasaddedapproximatelyonebillionpeople,reaching7.3billionasofmid2015(DESA,2015:2),Figure1showsfourfertilityscenariosoverthenext80years,statingthatifthepopulationgrowthoftodaywouldbeconstant(redline),worldpopulationin2100wouldbe28.6billion,whichisfourtimeshigherthantoday.AccordingtoEcologistsstudyingthedistributionandabundanceororganismsthisdatasuggeststhatourspeciesisflourishinglikeneverbefore(Townsendetal.,2008).Normally,populationgrowthislimitedbyecologicaldeterminantslikeresourceavailabilityandenvironmentalconditions,yetapossibleexplanationforhumanity’scurrentsuccessisourabilitytoovercometheselimitstogrowthbytechnologicalinventionssuchastheGreenRevolution(Leigh,2004:329)ortheHaber-Boschprocess,enablingustomaximizeourresourceproductionbysynthesizingnitrogenfertilizerforourcropsusingthenitrogenintheatmosphere(Smil,1999).TheHaber-Boschprocesshasbeenvitalforourgrowthandithasbeenestimatedthat40%oftheworld’spopulationiscompletelydependentonthisprocessforfood(Leigh,2004:332).Yetthishumanabilitytomanipulateourenvironmenttosuitourgrowingneedshasputimmensepressureontheplanet,tothepointwhere“abruptglobalenvironmentalchangecannolongerbeexcluded”(Rockström,2009:1).ThisphenomenonhasbeenexplainedbyscientistJohanRockströmintheformofPlanetaryBoundaries,aimingtorecognizetheglobalthreatstotheplanetanddefinelimitsbelowwhichhumanitycanoperatesafely(2009).However,ourincreasedpopulationgrowthanddependenceonNitrogenFertilizersforthesubsequentintensificationinfoodproductionhasledtoitsrelatedplanetaryboundaryalreadybeingcrossed(Rockström,2009).Excessinputofnutrientsfromagriculturalrun-off,bothnitrogen-andphosphorus-based,hascausedmanylakestobecomeeutrophic,leadingtoeliminationoflargeplantsanddeathsofmarinelife,alsocreatinglarge‘deadzones’typicallyassociatedwithindustrializednationssubsidizingtheiragricultureandencouragingfarmerstousemorefertilizer(Townsendetal.,2008).Thus,thetechnologicaladvancementsbywhichwehavemanagedtoovercomeourspecies’naturallimitationstogrowthhavealsocreatedvastenvironmentalproblemswhichseemtoerodeglobalecosystemstability(Ehrlich&Holdren,1971).EcologistGarretHardindefinedatechnologicalsolutionasonethat“requiresachangeonlyinthetechniquesofthe

Figure1(DESA,2012,citedbySachs,2015:209)

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naturalsciences,demandinglittleornothingonthewayofchangeinhumanvaluesorideasofmorality”(1968:1243),yetitisnowclearthatwithregardtoourrapidlyincreasingpopulationandlimitationstogrowthproposedbytheplanetaryboundaries,thetechnologicalsolutionsarelimitedandshort-term,insteaddemandingachangeinourcollectivebehavior.Figure2showsthealreadyunsustainableusageofnitrogenandphosphorusfertilizersbeingprojectedtoincreasebyaround150%byyear2050(greenline).ThistogetherwiththeprojectedpopulationincreasefromFigure1introducesaseriousissuewhichneedstobeacknowledgedifwewishtostaywithintheplanetaryboundariesandensurethesurvivalofourenvironment.However,sexualandreproductiverightsofwomenarerecognizedascorehumanrights(UNFPA,2017),andthustheneedtolimitpopulationgrowthisasensitivetopic,asthechoiceliesentirelywithinthefamilies.Thiscomplicatesanalreadypressingissue,makingitgloballyknownasthe“populationproblem”(Townsendetal.,2008:391).

ASSESMENT/ANALYSISOFEVIDENCEOnecountrydaringtoacknowledgethestrainsofarapidlyincreasingpopulationonthegeneralwellbeingofitspeopleandenvironmentisChina,astheirOneChildPolicyintroducedin1979isgloballyknownwhendiscussingpopulationreduction(Kane&Choi,1999).Peoplewerelegallyrequiredtohaveonlyonechild,whichwasalsoencouragedthroughfinancialincentivesandaccesstohousing,whilelargerfamiliesreceivedsanctionsforeachadditionalchildaswellaspossiblelimitedcareerprospects(Kane&Choi,1999:992).ThisreductiondideasesomeofthepressuresoffChinesecommunitiesandenvironment,successfullyreducingthecountry’s(andtheworld’s)populationgrowthby250million(p.994),yethasbeenheavilyquestionedespeciallywithregardtothesubsequentsexdiscrimination,asmalechildrengotpreferredoverfemales(p.994).Thus,Chinabeingacommonexampleofanactualattempttolimitpopulationgrowth,itcarrieswithitthenegativeemotionssurroundingthemoralaspectsoftheissue.Itisclearthatinordertotacklethepopulationproblemwearefacingtodayadifferentapproachisnecessary,andasstatedbyauthorSachs“reducingthefertilityratesvoluntarily,whilerespectinghumanrightsandfamilydesires,isthereforeessentialtosustainabledevelopment”(2015:208).

Figure2(Townsendetal.,2008:420)

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LookingattheincreasingpopulationgrowthreportedbyUnitedNations,weseethatfertilityratesareincreasinglyunequalindifferentpartsoftheworld(UN,2015).FertilityinallEuropeancountriesiscurrentlybelowreplacementrate,meaningthateachwomangetslessthanaround2.1children,andinmostcountriesthishasbeenthecaseforseveraldecades(UN,2015:4).However,Africacontains19oftheworld’s21high-fertilitycountries(eachwomanhaving5ormorechildren),andmorethanhalfofglobalpopulationgrowthbetweennowand2050isexpectedtooccurinthiscontinent(p.4),causingitto“playacentralroleinshapingthesizeanddistributionoftheworld’spopulationoverthecomingdecades”(p.4).Thisstatementprovidesabaseforinvestigatinganypossibilitiestolimitthefertilityratesofthewomenoftherapidlygrowingcontinentwithoutinfringingontheirpersonalrights.Acommonapproachworldwideistheintroductionoffamilyplanningservicesandmoderncontraception,yetof206millionpregnanciesindevelopingregionsin2017,43%wereunintended(GuttmacherInstitute,2017:1).Thishasbeentargetedbythefamilyplanning2020globalpartnership,aimingtoprovidecontraceptiveservicestoanadditional120millionwomenindevelopingregionsby2020(UNFPA,2017:1).Yet,thecountriestargetedareoftentoopoortoimplementsuccessfulprogramsforsafepregnancyandfamilyplanning,ortheinstitutionsarenotstableenoughtoimplementprogramstheyhavebeencommittedto(Sachs,2015:208).Anotherlesscommonapproach,yetwhichhasrecordedhighsuccessratesinlimitingfemalefertilityisimprovedfemaleeducation(Dreze&Murthi,2001),andreturningtoAfrica,wecanseethatofthe15milliongirlsofprimaryschoolagewhowillneverenteraclassroomglobally,halfofthemareinsub-SaharanAfrica(UNESCO,2016:3).Thisintroducesapossibleopportunitytoindirectlylimitfertilityrates,withoutremovingtherightsofthewomenandinsteadimprovingthefuturesofchildreninthecountrieswhichwillmatterthemosttothesustainablefutureofourplanet.

CONCLUSIONS,RECCOMENDATIONSANDOUTLOOKThispopulationproblemthreateningthesustainablefutureofourplanetisasurgentasmorallydifficult,yetbyfocusingonotherareasofdevelopmentthereductiongoalscanbereachedindirectly.Dataonfemaleliteracyrateshaving“negativeandhighlysignificanteffectsonfertilityrates”havebeenfoundinIndia(Dreze&Murthi,2001:54),whereestimatesafterrecordingdatastatesthatanincreaseinadultfemaleliteracyfromitsbaselevelin1981of22percentofthepopulationtoabout65percentwouldreducethetotalfertilityratebyalmostonechildperwoman(Dreze&Murthi,2001:55).AlsoinNigeriaananalysisofthecausalrelationshipsuggeststhatincreasingeducationforwomenbyoneyearreducesfertilitypereachwomanunder25yearsby0.26births(OkonkwoOsili&TerryLong,2007:23).ThisincreaseinliteracyrateswasmadeavailablebytheUniversalPrimaryEducation(UPE)programintroducedin1976,providingtuitionfreeprimaryeducationandteacher-trainingfacilities

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(OkonkwoOsili&TerryLong,2007:2).AnothersuccessfulpolicyaimingtomakeschoolingmoreaccessibleinAfricaisKenya’sintroductionoffreeschooluniforms,reducingschoolabsenteeismby62%forstudentswhodidnotpreviouslyownauniform(Evansetal.,2009:1).Theseincentivesaresuccessfulexamplesofpoliciesfacilitatingeducationleadingtoincreasedfemaleliteracyratesindevelopingcountries,andthussupposedlyalsotoreducedfertilityrates,makingthempossibleoptionstoconsideronthesearchforareducedpopulationgrowthinAfrica.However,lookingtootherpoliciesindevelopingcountries,aknownsuccessstoryistheBolsaFamíliaProgramintroducedinBrazilin2003,offeringsmallcashtransfersinreturnforfamilieskeepingtheirchildreninschoolandattendingregularhealthcarevisits(Wetzel,2013).ApartfromhalvingBrazil’sextremepoverty(p.1)thisprogramhelpedespeciallypromotetheautonomyofpoorwomen,accountingforover90%ofthebeneficiaries,aswellasincreasingthechancesofa15-year-oldgirlbeinginschoolby21%(p.1).Thus,introducingconditionalcashtransferstofamiliesindevelopingcountriesinsub-SaharanAfricaforsendingtheirchildrentoschoolcouldpromotebothreducedpovertyrates,aswellasincreasedincentivesforparentsofpoorerfamiliestolettheirchildrenreceiveaneducation.Ifthisincentivecouldincreasetheyearsofaveragefemaleeducationwithatleastayear,thedatafromNigeriasuggeststhatfertilityperwomanwouldshowsignificantreductionsalready.Asanadditionalextensionoftheincentivewithregardtofemaleliteracy,anamendedversionprovidingspecificsubsidiesforfemalestudentscouldbeintroduced.Yet,keepingthegenderspecificdiscriminationcausedbytheone-childpolicyinChinainmind,moreresearchwouldbeneededregardingthispossibility.AstheBolsaFamíliaProgramsuggeststhateventhenon-genderspecificincentivesbenefittedprimarilythewomen/girls,asimilarprogramtargetingallchildrenwouldbeasufficientstart,whichperhapscouldbefollowedupbymorefemale-specificpoliciesiffertilityratesareshowingnodecrease.Thispolicydirectionoffersanindirectwaytotackletheglobalpopulationproblemcausedbyourgrowingspecies,aswearecurrentlypushingtheplanetaryboundariesandthreateningthesustainablefutureofourplanet.Itisaheavilystigmatizedissuewhichhasbeencalledaproblemwithnotechnicalsolution.Yet,bytargetingtheregionswiththehighestlevelsofpopulationgrowthandpromotingotherareasofsustainabledevelopment,wecanoffergovernmentsindevelopingcountriesinAfricawaystolimittheirfertilityrates,whilesimultaneouslyimprovingthelifestandardsoftheirwomenandchildren,alsoputtingourplanetonamoresustainabletrajectory.

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