J uly-S ept.2004

V ol. - lIIIs s ue - 3

CPDQUARTERLYCPDQUARTERLY

The third quarter (July-September, 2004) coincided with one of the worst floods suffered by Bangladesh in recent years. In view of the negative impacts of the flood on the macroeconomic performance during FY2005, CPD decided to undertake a Rapid Assessment of Flood 2004 in August 2004. The exercise was carried out under the Independent Review of Bangladesh's Development (IRBD) Programme of the CPD which monitors the performance of the country's economy on a continuing basis.

The Rapid Assessment exercise involved quite an intensive measure of work by the CPD staff. The work involved generation of data from flood affected areas through direct observation and focus group discussions (this was done through rapid assessment surveys in nine districts), collation of physical estimates of flood conducted by various agencies of the government, estimation of flood damage and relief intensities, and through an interactive process, involving experts, policy makers and knowledgeable people, arriving at a plausible and reliable estimates about the flood damage.

CPD came up with an estimate of damage ranging between Tk. 11400.00 crore and Tk. 15000.00 crore (with August 04, 2004 as the cut off date). Since a number of other flood damage estimates also came into the public domain around the same time, there was considerable debate and discussion as regards the reliability of the various estimates, and CPD estimates also came under close scrutiny. At the time the CPD estimates were perceived by some to be on the low-side. However, CPD estimates were later corroborated by other independent sources.

The CPD study attempted to address this important task by identifying areas where relief and rehabilitation works were to be concentrated (CPD estimated flood intensity index and relief intensity index for various flood affected districts). The study also identified possible sources for mobilising the required resources, and put forward proposals for fiscal and financial measures to stimulate the flood affected economy.

Regrettably, because of debate about flood damage estimates, the more important issue of addressing the impact of flood damage, which was articulated through a policy package put forward in CPD's Rapid Assessment Study, received relatively less attention. This package of proposals was prepared by the CPD with a view to help design policy interventions to address the consequences of flood through relief and rehabilitation programmes.

This policy package was subsequently shared with high level policy makers. Hopefully, CPD's Rapid Assessment Study was able to serve the intended purpose of CPD's IRBD initiative which is to provide inputs towards informed policy making in Bangladesh.

"EU and Japanese trade preference schemes could offer enormous potential benefits to Bangladesh", experts observed at a CPD dialogue on August 08, 2004. The dialogue titled In Search of New Products and New Markets for Bangladesh was held at the CIRDAP auditorium.

Presided over by CPD Chairman Rehman Sobhan, the dialogue was attended by Commerce Minister Air Vice Marshal (Retd.) Altaf Hossain Choudhury, MP as the Chief Guest. Former Chairman of the Privatisation Board Kazi Zafarullah, MP, Head of the Delegation of the European Commission HE Esko Kentrschynskyj, and Japanese Ambassador HE Matsushiro Horiguchi were present as special guests.

Two papers were presented at the Seminar. CPD Research Director Mustafizur Rahman made a presentation on Everything But

Arms Initiative of the EU (EU-EBA): Market Access Implications and Potential Benefits for Bangladesh and CPD Research Fellow Ananya Raihan made a presentation on The New Japanese GSP Schemes for LDCs and Bangladesh's Export Opportunities.

In his paper, Rahman noted that Bangladesh's export of the newly included products under the EBA Scheme has gone up by 300 per cent in the EU market following the introduction of the new Scheme. The paper also noted that there was substantial scope to increase the export of agro-processed products to the EU by taking the advantage of zero-tariff, quota-free export offered under the EBA. However, Rahman noted, compliance with EC health/hygiene regulation will be critically important in the context of the increasingly competitive market for agro-products in the EU.

From The Editor's Desk

New Market Access InitiativesOffered by the EU and Japan

Experts at CPD dialogue call for concerted effort to realise the potentials

(Cont. Page-2)

Dialogue on EU-EBA Initiative and Japan's GSP Scheme: (from left to right) Professor Mustafizur Rahman, HE Matsushiro Horiguchi, Kazi Zafrullah, MP, Professor Rehman Sobhan, Commerce Minister Altaf Hossain Choudhury, MP, HE Esko Kentrschynskyj, and Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, MP.

CPD Quarterly 2 July- Sep 2004

New Market Access Initiatives Offered by the EU and Japan

Rahman noted that the EBA recognises the need for technical assistance for the LDCs and that Bangladesh should get on with the work of identifying the areas where EC's trade-related technical assistance would be helpful in realising the potential benefits of the EBA. He further noted that the products identified in the study could serve as a basis for Bangladesh's export diversification.

Presenting the major departures of the new GSP schemes offered by Japan in 2001 and 2003, Ananya Raihan noted that these new schemes have opened windows of opportunity for Bangladesh to expand its export in the Japanese market and that the new schemes will allow Bangladesh to have zero-tariff access in export of apparels. He, however, cautioned that the issue of quality control

On September 22, 2004, CPD held a press conference at its Dialogue Room to brief the media on its findings from a perception survey carried out among 100 top companies in the country to assess competitiveness of the business environment. CPD Executive Director Debapriya Bhattacharya presented a comparative analysis of the findings generated from the 2004 survey; he also presented a comparison of the findings generated through similar exercises undertaken by the CPD in 2003.

It may be noted here that the survey was carried out as part of the Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) which is an annual publication by the World Economic Forum (WEF). This year's survey was the fourth of its kind undertaken by the CPD.

Important objectives of the survey were to (i) identify major bottlenecks

constraining proper functioning of the business sector in the country; (ii) generate information on positive achievements of the country with respect to environment for trade and investment; (iii) understand intertemporal changes in competitiveness environment situation based on findings generated by 2002-03 and 2003-04 surveys; and (iv) provide inputs to policy makers as regards prioritising areas for improving economic performance.

The survey evinced mixed signals, with some indicators showing improvements and some other revealing deterioration. Corporate sector did show some signs of improvement- posting gains in production, exports and employment. The survey revealed that 55 per cent of the enterprises expanded their business in 2004 as against 50 per cent in the preceding year. Another 20 p e r c e n t o f

the respondent companies informed about investing in new business in 2003-04. In this regard, the survey findings showed that investment, employment, production and export performance of the companies covered under the survey were better during the first three quarters of FY04 in comparison to FY03. However, regulatory weakness, lack of transparency, and state of governance continued to remain nagging concern. Entrepreneurs stated that decline in interest rate brought some benefit to their business. However, they feared that the rising trend of inflation would affect their companies' production cost. One interesting finding revealed by this year's executive opinion survey was the emerging trend of overseas investment by Bangladeshi companies.

CPD Research Director Mustafizur Rahman, Research Fellows Ananya Raihan and Fahmida Khatun, Head of Dialogue and Communication Anisatul Fatema Yousuf, along with representatives from print and electronic media were present at the press briefing.

would once again be a major concern in terms of accessing Japanese market. He noted that Japanese market is highly quality conscious and Bangladesh will need to accord more attention to factors related to standardisation and certification.

Taking part in the discussion session, a number of participants mentioned that export diversification could provide Bangladesh better opportunities to survive in global market, particularly at a time of phase-out of the MFA. Quality of product must get due attention, they maintained. This isexplained by the fact that consumers in both EU and Japan are highly cautious about the quality of products, and that they were unlikely to make any sort of compromise in this regard even when products were offered by Bangladesh at lower prices. Need for flexibility in t h e R u l e s o f Origin (RoO) and technical

assistance were underscored by many participants.

The Commerce Minister noted that Bangladeshi exporters will need to explore new markets in Japan and EU and take advantage of the preferential treatment. He also informed that the Ministry would set up a high-power committee to identify the potentials for export diversification, and that donors and leading exporters would be consulted.

Among those present Awami League Presidium Member Kazi Zafrullah, MP, Jatiya Party leader GM Quader, MP, FBBCI Vice President Abdur Rouf, representatives of Bangladesh Agro-Processing Industries, NGOs, Donors and business community spoke at the seminar and underscored the need for putting in place concrete measures in order to realise the preferential treatment offered to Bangladesh under the two schemes.

(From. Page-1)

Business Competitiveness EnvironmentLags behind Desired Level

Press briefing on CPD's executive opinion survey reveals

CPD Quarterly 3 July- Sep 2004

Utilisation of Domestic ResourcesWill be Crucial for Post-floodRehabilitation Programme

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) organised a press briefing on August 12, 2004 to share the major findings of the CPD study titled Rapid Assessment of Flood 2004. The study was conducted with a view to understand the magnitude of the impact of this year's flood on the overall economy of the country, and to put forward a set of policy recommendations for consideration of the policy makers to address the post-flood rehabilitation.

CPD's damage assessment was carried out on the basis of data and information gathered from various institutions of the government and field surveys conducted by the CPD, and through scrutiny of media reports on flood. As part of the data collection exercise three teams from CPD visited eleven upazillas in nine flood-hit districts; secondary information was collected from relevant ministries, departments and apex business bodies. CPD also organised an in-house expert group dialogue for validation of the preliminary findings, where highlevel policy makers, experts and representatives of grass roots organizations discussed the draft report prepared by the CPD and shared their thoughts on relevant issues before finalising the report.

The CPD study came up with a damage estimate of Tk.11,418 crore ( equivalent to 3.4 per cent of GDP). The report further noted that the initial damage estimate could rise to Tk. 15,000 crore.

While assessing the impact of this year's flood, CPD took into consideration the loss incurred by agriculture, infrastructure, residential, industrial, educational sectors, and health centres. However, income loss of farm labourers and other costs were not included in the estimation.

CPD estimated that damage to the private sector was higher compared to the public sector. The estimates for damage to private sectors was to the tune of Tk. 7115 crore (62.3 per cent of total damage). Within this sector agriculture, residential establishments, and industries suffered damages estimated at Tk. 2916 crore, Tk. 3706 crore and Tk. 493 crore respectively. The damage estimate for

the public sector, stood at Tk. 4303 crore ( 37.7 per cent of total damage) of which infrastructure incurred damage of Tk. 3857 crore, education Tk. 345 crore, health Tk. 48 crore, industries Tk. 38 crore and agriculture Tk. 3.9 crore.

While sharing the CPD'S assessment of flood 2004 with the media, CPD Executive Director Debapriya Bhattacharya noted that government-NGO collaboration in terms of relief distribution was relatively weak in many of the flood-affected areas. However, the initiatives taken by various individuals, and self-motivated philanthropic organisations were much visible in some areas.

Bhattacharya highlighted the importance of taking up appropriate policies to address the consequences of the flood.

Speaking on policy recommendations for post-flood relief and rehabilitation works, he observed, "There is no reason to be panicked as the government has the ability cope with the flood shock through proper utilisation of its own resources". The flood came during the early months of the new fiscal year and the government could take recourse to the budgetary provisions in the budget for maintenance and lumsum allocations. He maintained that proper utilisation of the available resources was the major challenge before the government. He however noted that the government could be in need of food aid to address immediate needs and that budgetary support was required for post-flood rehabilitation work. In this context, he felt that the government should negotiate with the World Bank (WB) for a further $200 million budgetary support.

The press briefing was attended by a large number of media personnel from both the print and electronic media. CPD Research Director Mustafizur Rahman, Head of Dialogue and Communciation Division Anisatul Fatema Yousuf, Research Fellows Ananya Raihan, Uttam Kumar Deb and Fahmida Khatun were also present on the occasion.

CPD's rapid assessment of flood 2004

lDialogue on Aid & Policy Reforms in Bangladesh will be held on December 07, 2004 at the BRAC Centre.

l Dialogue on Regionalism vs. Multilateralism: What Could Bangladesh Learn from the Global Experience? is due to be held on January 03, 2005 at the CIRDAP Auditorium.

lTPA Workshop on WTO and Bangladesh will take place during January 04-06, 2005 at CIRDAP Auditorium.

l SACEPS Executive Committee Meeting will be held on January 05, 2005 at the BRAC Centre.

l SACEPS dialogue on Pre-Summit Conference on Regional Cooperation will take place at the BRAC Centre on January 06, 2005.

lPress Briefing on Interim IRBD2005 will be held at the CPD Dialogue Room on January 15, 2005 (date is tentative).

CPD YSSS

Under the Young Scholars' Seminar Series (YSSS) programme, CPD will hold a number of in-house discussions where the following papers will be presented.

l Environmental Externalities and Policy Analysis: An Economic Investigation of an Environmental Problem by Byron A E Pakula, Visiting Intern and Australian Youth Ambassador, on November 30, 2004.

lDispute Settlement in the WTO: Challenges and Opportunities for the LDCs by Syed Saifuddin Hossain, Research Associate in December, 2004.

l TRIPS and Traditional Knowledge: Implications for Bangladesh by Kazi Mahmudur Rahman, Research Associate in December, 2004.

Upcoming Activities

CPD Quarterly 4 July- Sep 2004

CPD, in association with the Columbia University, USA organised a dialogue on Citizen's Voice in Health Policy and Programme: Setting Agendas and Establishing Accountability at the CIRDAP auditoriam on August 18, 2004

Moderated by the CPD Chairman Rehman Sobhan, the dialogue was attended by M Amanullah, MP as the special guest. Rounaq Jahan of the Columbia University, USA presented the keynote paper.

The dialogue was organised to facilitate public discussion and debate, with participation of civil society, government and development partners, on how citizen's voice and oversight could be effectively internalised in health policy and programmes in Bangladesh. In this context, the dialogue dealt extensively with such issues as past experiences in terms of reflecting citizen's voice in Health, Nutrition and Population Sector Programme (HNPSP) and SIP. The dialogue also explored various avenues for enhancing effectiveness of citizen's voice.

While presenting the keynote paper, Rounaq Jahan underscored the need for large scale investment to accelerate

the process of modernisation of the health sector; she explained the need for making the sector more responsive to clients' needs, more efficient in the delivery of services, and more effective in providing key services to the poor people. She further underscored the need for making the parliamentary committees more pro-active with a view to ensuring transparency and accountability in the health sector.

Speakers called for effective participation of lawmakers, civil society members, non-government organisations and private stakeholders in developing major health programmes. Such concerted efforts can play a key role in the process of policy formulation, they observed. Discussants argued in favour of an effective national forum to realise this objective.

The discussion session was participated, among others, by CPD Executive Director Debapriya Bhattacharya, Coordinator of Gonoshashthya Kendra Zafrullah Choudhury, Coordinator of Dhaka Community Trust Hospital Mahmudur Rahman, Chairman of Square Group Samson H Choudhury, Chief of Health and Nutrition Programme, DFID, Neil Squires, and Technical Director of HLSP Enamul Karim.

CPD's TPA SteeringCommittee Meeting

The first meeting of the Steering Committee of the Trade Related Research and Policy Development (TRRPD), second phase (April 2004 - March 2009) Project under the CPD's Trade Policy Analysis (TPA) programme was held on Wednesday, September 01, 2004 at the Conference Room of the Ministry of Commerce, Bangladesh Secretariat, Dhaka. The meeting was chaired by the Hon'ble Secretary of Commerce Md Aminur Rahman with Kutubuddin Ahmed, President, MCCI being present as the Co-Chair. Members of the Steering Committee included high level officials from various government agencies, leaders of leading chambers, and renowned academicians and experts.

The meeting discussed four issues: (a) Review of CPD's Trade Policy Programme, (b) Identification of themes for Research Studies for 2004-5, (c) Identification of themes for Policy Briefs for 2004-5, and (d) Discussion on Improving the Outreach of Project Outputs. CPD Executive Director Debapriya Bhattacharya (Member), Research Director Mustafizur Rahman (Member Secretary), and Research Fellow Ananya Raihan made brief presentations on these before the Members of the Steering Committee. The Members appreciated coverage and qualities of CPD's project outputs, particularly in the context of providing valuable trade related policy inputs to both the government and private sector. The Steering Committee discussed various issues related to implementation of CPD's TRRPD Project and came up with a number of suggestions with a view to making it more effective.

Large Scale Investment Must to AccelerateModernisation of Health Sector

Discussants voice at CPD dialogue on health policy

Professor Rehman Sobhan speaks at the dialogue on health policy. Professor Rounaq Jahan, Dr Zafrullah Choudhury, M Amanullah, MP, Professor (Dr.) M S. Akbar, MP, and Samson H Choudhury are also seen.

Ashoka Fellowship for CPD Researchers

CPD Research Fellow Ananya Raihan was elected by the Ashoka International as an Ashoka Fellow in 2004. His area of civic participation will focus on promoting the role of ICT in poverty alleviation, particularly in the context of the developing and least developed countries.

CPD Quarterly 5 July- Sep 2004

The Hon'ble British High Commissioner to Bangladesh HE Anwar Choudhury made a courtesy visit to the CPD on September 12, 2004. CPD Chairman Rehman Sobhan welcomed the Hon'ble guest at the centre.

CPD Executive Director Debapriya Bhattacharya made a brief presentation to inform the High Commissioner about CPD's current activities and future plans. HE the High Commissioner appreciated CPD's endeavours in advancing civil society's interests in the governance process, through constructive engagement and continuing dialogue with the policy makers. The High Commissioner exchanged views with the CPD senior staff on a number of important issues concerning Bangladesh-UK bilateral relations.

CPD Research Director Mustafizur Rahman, Research Fellows Ananya Raihan, Uttam Deb and Fahmida Khatun, and Head of Dialogue and Communication Anisatul Fatema Yousuf were also present at the meeting.

CPD Visit by the British High Commissioner

A team of experts from the World Bank (WB) visited CPD on September 13, 2004 to discuss the findings of CPD's Rapid Assessment of Flood 2004. Mohinder S Mudahar, Economic Advisor, WB, led the team. It may be noted that the study was carried out under CPD's Independent Review of Bangladesh's Development (IRBD), and CPD released the interim study report on August 12, 2004.

The expert group held an extensive discussion with the CPD team that conducted the study with Debapriya Bhattacharya as the team leader. Bhattacharya shared the major findings of the CPD study with the visiting team. Discussion concentrated on methodology of damage estimate, points of departure of the CPD study from similar exercise, possible impact of Flood 2004, strategies to address the consequences and areas of possible support by development partners.

Amongst others, Enrique Pantuja, Zahid Hussain, Nilufar Ahmed, and Qaiser Khan from the World Bank, and CPD Research Director Mustafizur Rahman, Research Fellows Uttam Deb and Fahmida Khatun, and Head of Dialogue and Communication Anisatul Fatema Yousuf attended the meeting.

World Bank Expert Group Visits CPD

Young Scholars'Seminar Series (YSSS)

During the period, four presentations were made by CPD researchers under the CPD's Young Scholars' Seminar Series (YSSS).

Privatisation of State-owned Enterprises in Bangladesh

Touhidul Hoque Chowdhury, Programme Associate, presented a paper under the title Privatisation of SOEs in Bangladesh: An Observation on Recent Performance on July 5, 2004. The presentation concentrated on the status of privatisation in Bangladesh and focused on a number of issues regarding trends in privatisation and the efficacy of the privatisation procedures and processes.

Climate Change and Bangladesh: A Policy AnalysisProgramme Associate Mariam Rashid presented a paper on Climate Change and Bangladesh: A Policy Analysis on July 15, 2004 at YSSS seminar. The paper identified policies by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as an important tool in the mitigation and adaptation of climate change. It was maintained that in order to mitigate the impact of climate change, policies have to point towards the reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHG), from which Bangladesh as a Non-Annex I country is exempted. The author felt that this exemption has been a drawback for Bangladesh because it negates the need for any policies that exclusively address the issue of climate change.

Benefiting from Tourism: The case of BangladeshDamien Brosnan, Visiting Intern and Australian Youth Ambassador for Development, presented a paper on Benefiting from tourism: The case of Bangladesh on August 26, 2004 at YSSS seminar. It underscored tourism as world's biggest industry, with strong growth predicted in the next 50 years. By applying the SWOT methodology, the author highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of Bangladesh's tourism industry and the attendant opportunities and threats. The author concluded that if Bangladesh is able to successfully address the tasks at hand in terms of developing the related infrastructure, transportation and services, and building of human capacity, there are enormous opportunities for Bangladesh to tap into this lucrative foreign exchange earning sector.

Private University in Bangladesh: Realities and ChallengesFarhana Rahman, Programme Associate presented a paper on Private University in Bangladesh: Realities and Challenges on September 29, 2004 at YSSS seminar. Synthesising information collected from both primary and secondary sources, the research was carried out with an objective to explain the nature and scope of private universities vis-a-vis the public universities in Bangladesh. The presentation made a comparative analysis of the cost of education in the public and private universities, and identified the implications of the asymmetry in this area on Bangladesh's tertiary education system. Strengthening the role of the University Grants Commission (UGC), particularly in the context of compliance with the defined rules and regulations by the private universities, came up as one of several important policy recommendations by the author.

Hon'ble British High Commissioner HE Anwar Choudhury looks on as Professor Rehman Sobhan makes a note. CPD's Anisatul Fatema Yousuf is also in the picture.

Economic Advisor to the World Bank Mohinder S Mudahar shares his views with the CPD while Nilufar Ahmed and Enrique Pantuja pay attention.

CPD Quarterly 6 July- Sep 2004

From Research DivisionPETRRA Award for CPD Researchers

Three CPD personnel, namely Uttam Kumar Deb (Research Fellow), Anisatul Fatema Yousuf (Head of the Dialogue and Communication Division), and Masum Billah (Programme Associate) have been awarded certificate of appreciation by the Poverty Elimination Through Rice Research Assistance (PETRRA) project of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) at the closing ceremony of the project held at Hotel Sheraton on July 13, 2004. Awards were given to them in recognition of their contribution for successful completion of the DoLSys (Dynamics of Livelihood System in Rural Bangladesh) sub-project of PETRRA. Deb was the Principal Investigator (CPD) and National Coordinator of the DoLSys sub-project; Anisatul Fatema Yousuf coordinated all the dialogues held under the sub-project; Masum Billah provided valuable research assistance in implementing the project.

Trade Related Research and Policy Development (TRRPD)The second phase of the Trade Policy Analysis (TPA) Programme of the CPD titled Trade Related Research and Policy Development (TRRPD) will be implemented during April 2004 - March 2009 with support from the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA).

Policy BriefsCPD, under its TRRPD project, has prepared the following policy briefs as inputs to the government during July - September, 2004.

l Issues of promotion, diversification and development of Bangladesh's export sector

l Trade Negotiations on Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: A Strategy Paper for Bangladesh

lComments on Bangladesh's Proposal on Trade Facilitation

l Qatar's Proposal to Include Natural Gas Related Products as Environmental Goods

lWTO General Council Decision of July 31, 2004: Interpreting from Bangladesh Perspective

Study on EU-EBA InitiativeThis particular study titled Everything But Arms Initiative of the EU (EU-EBA): Market Access Implications and Potential Benefits For Bangladesh was conducted by the CPD with a view to strategically analyse Bangladesh's trade potentials in the context of the EU-EBA Initiative, which replaced the previous EC-GSP Scheme. The study analysed such issues as the new initiative and its departure from the earlier scheme; identified products of Bangladesh's export interest which have come under the purview of the new scheme, market access opportunities of the newly included products in the markets of the EU, current supply side capacity in view of these opportunities; and suggested measures towards capacity building in relevant areas in order to be able to realise the potential benefits. The study also pointed out the limitations embedded in the new EU initiative and put forward a number of pragmatic policy recommendations which, as is envisaged, will enhance Bangladesh's capacity to gain substantially, particularly in the context of export diversification and market access in the EU.

The study was conducted by Debapriya Bhattacharya, Mustafizur Rahman, and Ananya Raihan under CPD's TRRPD Programme.

Study on Japan's GSP SchemeA study titled New Japanese GSP Schemes for LDCs and Bangladesh's Export Opportunities was conducted at CPD under its TPA Programme. In the context of the enhanced preferential treatment for LDCs under the new scheme (revised in 2001 and 2003), LDCs now have an opportunity to substantively increase their exports to Japanese market in more favourable terms. However, Bangladesh has not been able to benefit significantly from this preferential regime. The present study analyses the probability of enhancing exports to Japanese market realising the recent initiatives of extension of preferential treatment. The major area of discussion focuses on Bangladesh's export potentials in industrial and agricultural products which are competitive in the global market but could not get access to Japanese market. Under the new scheme, the whole apparel sector will enjoy market access with substantial preferential treatment.

The study identified major causes for which the preferential treatment offered by Japan was not much effective. One of the major factors was compliance with the Japan Industrial Standards (JIS) and the Japan Agricultural Standards (JAS).

CPD's Rapid Assessment of Flood 2004In view of the severity of Flood 2004 and its possible impact on the economy and possible implication for policies to be pursued in terms of post-flood rehabilitation, CPD undertook a study on Rapid Assessment of Flood 2004 under its Independent Review of Bangladesh's Development (IRBD) programme. The primary objective of the study was two-fold: to understand the effect of this year's flood on the people and their livelihoods, and extent of damages in terms of crop losses, damage to infrastructure, and losses incurred in other sectors, and to come up with a set of policy recommendations in terms of immediate and short term measures to address the consequences of Flood 2004. The study was based on data generated through first hand data collection from field survey in flood affected areas and information collated from secondary sources. A study team, headed by CPD Executive Director Debapriya Bhattacharya, conducted the study.

The 22nd meeting of the CPD Board of Trustees was held at its Dialogue Room on September 10, 2004. The meeting discussed CPD's performance during the first quarter of 2004 and considered the plans for future activities.

The Board expressed its satisfaction over CPD's performance record in such areas as research, dialogue and other activities during January-August, 2004. The board encouraged CPD to continue its work in advancing civil society's views as regards issues of national concern and interests.

The meeting also approved CPD's accounts for the period of January - June, 2004 and the revised budget for the rest of the year.

Presided over by CPD Chairman Rehman Sobhan, the meeting was attended by CPD Board members M Syeduzzaman, Mohammad Yunus, Syed Manzur Elahi, Anisuzzaman, S H Kabir, Quazi Faruque Ahmed, Nurul Haq and Debapriya Bhattacharya. Mustafizur Rahman, Research Director, CPD was present on invitation.

22nd Meeting of CPDBoard of Trustees Held

CPD Quarterly 7 July- Sep 2004

CPD professionals were involved in the following overseas activities during the third quarter of 2004.

Professor Rehman SobhanChairman

lParticipated in the SACEPS Board Meeting, EC Board Meetings and seminar in New Delhi during August 29-31, 2004.

l Presented a paper on A Macro Policy for Poverty Eradication through Structural Change at the EGDI-WIDER Conference on Unlocking Human Potential: Linking the Informal and Formal Sectors. The conference was held in Helsinki, Finland during September 17-18, 2004.

l Participated in the Advisory Committee meeting on Innovations and Democratic Governance: Constructing a Research Agenda held at the Harvard University, USA during September 27-29, 2004. It was organised by the ASH Institute of the same university.

Professor Mustafizur RahmanResearch Director

l Participated in the conference on Globalisation Studies Network (GSN) during August 18-21, 2004. It was organised by Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation, University of Warwick, UK.

Anisatul Fatema YousufHead (Dialogue & Communication)

lParticipated in the seminar on Elimination of Discrimination in the Workplace in Selected South-Asian Countries held in Colombo, Sri Lanka, during September 29 to October 01, 2004. Fatema Yousuf presented a paper on Forms of Gender D i s c r i m i n a t i o n i n

CPD Stands by Flood VictimsIn its modest effort to help the victims of the devastating flood which brought so much suffering to the people of the country, CPD raised an in-house relief fund from contributions made by its staff; the amount raised was complemented by CPD's institutional contribution. Part of the amount raised was spent for relief distribution during field visits by the CPD staff. The relief was distributed in selected upazillas in elevan districts (Bogra, Natore, Gaibandha, Sirajganj, Pabna, Mainkganj, Sylhet, Sunamganj, Habiganj, Madaripur and Tangail). CPD solicited the assistance of a number of voluntary organisations working with the flood victims in distributing the rest of the fund.

Garments and Plantation Industry in Bangladesh. It was jointly organised by InWEnt, Germany, The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, The Employers' Federation of Ceylon and The National Association for Trade Union Research and Education of Sri Lanka.

Dr Ananya RaihanResearch Fellow

lParticipated at the International Workshop on Navigating Export Requirements in the Globalised Market. It was held in Kathmandu, Nepal during July 13-14, 2004. It was organised by USAID.

l Presented a paper on MFA Phase Out: Bangladesh's Perspective at the Regional Symposium on Trade in Textiles: Beyond 2005. It was held at Hotel Oberoi, Mumbai, India on 14th September 2004. It was jointly organised by SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI) & Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), supported by AUS Aid & FNS.

l Participated at the International seminar on Government Actions in Anticipation of the Phase-Out of the Multifibre Agreement organised by the Asia Foundation. It was held during October 6-7, 2004 in Bangkok, Thailand.

Dr Uttam K DebResearch Fellow

lParticipated at the conference on WTO Post-Cancun Developments: Options for South Asia held in Islamabad, Pakistan during August 17-19, 2004. It was organised by the South Asian Civil Society Network on International Trade Issues (SACSNITI).

l Participated at the First Plenary Conference on Democratisation, Peace and Regional Cooperation in South Asia held at The International Centre, Goa India during September 20-21, 2004.

Dr Fahmida KhatunResearch Fellow

lPresented a paper on What Strategies in South Asia Can Achieve Rapid Economic Growth? at the South Asia Forum IV: The New Security Agenda in South Asia held during July 5-9, 2004. It was organised by the Wilton Park, United Kingdom.

lPresented the findings of a study on Fish Trade Liberalisation in Bangladesh: Implications of SPS Measures and Eco-Labeling for the Export-Oriented Shrimp Sector at the workshop on Implications of Liberalisation of Fish Trade for Developing Countries held during July 5-6, 2004. It was organised by the FAO, Rome, Italy.

M Syeed AhamedSr Research Associate

l Participated in the Asian Emerging Leaders' Traveling Seminar during September 15-30, 2004 in four states of USA, i.e. California, Ohio, North Carolina and Washington DC. It was organised by The Asia Foundation.

Asif AnwarProgramme Associate

l Participated in the South Asian Youth Invitation Program 2004 held in Japan during September 24 to October 05, 2004. It was organised by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan.

CPD Professionals Overseas

PublicationsDialogue Reports

Women's Contribution to Rural Economic Activities: Making the Invisible VisibleReport No. 68 (July, 2004)

Mapping Poverty for Rural Bangladesh: Implications for Pro-poor DevelopmentReport No. 69 (July, 2004)

Environment Debates in the WTO: Defining Bangladesh's InterestsReport No. 70 (July, 2004)

Bangladesh Development Forum 2004: Civil Society's PerspectivesReport No. 71 (August, 2004)

Surviving in a Quota Free World: Will Bangladesh Make it? Report No. 72 (September, 2004)

In Search of New Products and New Markets for Bangladesh Report No. 73 (September, 2004)

Occasional PaperRice Biotechnology: Opportunity, Perceived Risk and Potential Benefits to BangladeshPaper No. 37 (July, 2004)Authors: Mahabub Hossain, S.K. Datta and Muazzam HusainThis paper has been prepared as part of CPD's ongoing agricultural policy research and advocacy activities with IRRI under the PETRRA project. It discusses the benefits and risks of rice biotechnology research and genetically engineered varieties developed from such research. It assesses the potential benefits of biotechnology for rice improvement in the context of Bangladesh. The paper collated perceived risk of biotechnology. It reports the findings of a survey on knowledge, perceptions and attitude of civil society to identify the constraints to adoption of rice biotechnology in Bangladesh. It also raises some issues for debate that may assist the government to take up positions on this issue vital to achieving and sustaining food and nutrition security in Bangladesh.

Geographical Concentration of Rural Poverty in BangladeshPaper No. 38 (July, 2004)Authors: S.P. Kam, M. Hossain, M.L. Bose, T. Latif, A. H. Chowdhury, S.G. Hussain, M. Ahmed, A.Iqbal and L. Villano

This paper was presented at the dialogue on Mapping Poverty for Rural Bangladesh: Implications for Pro-poor Development. The dialogue was organised as part of CPD's ongoing agricultural policy research and advocacy activities with IRRI under the PETRRA project. The study reported geographical concentration of rural poverty in Bangladesh for 425 upazilas in 2000-01. The study measured and mapped incidence of poverty (using Head-c o u n t I n d e x ) , intensity of poverty (using Poverty

Gap Index) and severity of poverty (using Squared Poverty Gap Index). It has analyzed factors contributing to the spatial concentration of poverty. It is hoped that the findings of the study would be helpful in identifying target areas and priorities for agricultural R&D interventions and poverty reduction programmes.

Poverty Alleviation through Agriculture and Rural Development in Bangladesh

Paper No. 39 (July, 2004)Author: Mahabub Hossain

This paper was prepared as part of CPD's ongoing agricultural policy research and advocacy activities with IRRI under the PETRRA project. It provides an overview of the progress made so far in agricultural, rural development and poverty reduction. It discusses the role of agriculture in poverty reduction in Bangladesh. It documents major challenges in further reduction of poverty in Bangladesh and opportunities for addressing the challenges.

Rural Non-Farm Economy in Bangladesh: A View from Household Surveys

Paper No. 40 (July, 2004)Author: Mahabub Hossain

This paper was presented at the dialogue on Promoting Rural Non-farm Economy: Is Bangladesh Doing Enough? The paper presents the findings of the surveys, conducted in 1987 and 2000, on the importance of the rural non-farm activities as a source of rural development and factors affecting participation in it. It estimates the duration of employment and the level of productivity, to examine whether the expansion of the rural non-farm economy (RFNE) is caused by "push" or "pull" factors. It also assesses whether access to capital is a constraint to expansion of RFNE. It analyzes the expenditure pattern of rural and urban households to assess the demand for non-farm goods and services. It provides an overview of strategies and policies for the development of the rural non-farm sector. Finally, the study highlights the actions required for promotion of the rural non-farm economy of Bangladesh.

Nature and Impact of Women's Participation in Economic Activities in Rural Bangladesh: Insights from Household Surveys

Paper No. 41 (July, 2004)Authors: Mahabub Hossain and Manik Lal Bose

This paper has been prepared as part of CPD's ongoing agricultural policy research. The paper was presented at the dialogue on Women's Contribution to

Rural Economic Activities: Making the Invisible Visible. It presents some empirical evidences of recent changes in gender roles in economic activities, and impact of women's participation on their empowerment and the socio-economic conditions of the household. The information presented in this paper comes mostly from analysis of gender-specific (male and female) survey data at two points of time, i.e., 1987 and 2000. The surveys covered samples from 62 villages from 57 districts.

Changing Women's Role in Homestead Management: Mainstreaming Women in Rural Development

Paper No. 42 (July, 2004)Authors: Thelma Paris, Alamgir Chowdhury and Manik Lal Bose

This paper has been prepared as part of CPD's advocacy activities with IRRI under the PETRRA project and was presented at the dialogue on Women's Contribution to Rural Economic Activities: Making the Invisible Visible. It reports the result of the focus group discussions with men and women as a supplement to the quantitative information gathered from household surveys as presented in the CPD Occasional Paper 41. Focus Group Discussions (FGD) were conducted in 8 out of the 62 villages from 57 districts included in the quantitative study.

SACEPS Paper

A SACEPS Dialogue on Follow up of SAARC Summit Decisions Concerning the Report of the Independent South Asian Commission on Poverty Alleviation (ISACPA)Paper No. 6 (July, 2004)Price: Tk. 60.00

This SACEPS paper pens down the details of a dialogue on Follow-up of the SAARC Summit Decisions Concerning the Report of the Independent South Asian Commission on Poverty Alleviation (ISACPA), held at the BRAC Centre, Dhaka on February 27, 2004 with a view to identifying the key decisions taken at the 12th SAARC Summit in Islamabad, Pakistan, and ensuring implementation of the major initiatives. The paper underscores the association between various decisions taken at the regional level and the socio-economic conditions of the resource poor people in South Asia. Such issues as land reform, women and child trafficking, education, social safety net, access to resources, and governance were among the highly discussed ones. Besides, the paper also presents an analysis of best practices taking place in various countries within the region, particularly in the context of poverty alleviation. In this connection, a number of recommendations were put on table which could be undertaken as part of regional initiative in attaining the goal of poverty free South Asia.