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Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
Private Equity Perspective on Current Minerals MarketPetroleum Engineering Club of Dallas
Brian Seline, Vice President – NGP Energy Capital ManagementMay 10, 2019
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution2
NGP Overview
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
NGP Overview
3
Founded in 1988, NGP has a family of private equity investment funds with $20 billion of cumulative equity commitments organized to make direct equity investments in the energy sector
30-year track record of generating consistent and strong investment returns in the energy industry
NGP has invested in over 360 transactions with over 210 companies and has been the catalyst in some of the largest transactions in the energy sector
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
NGP Portfolio Companies
4
NGP is an active investor in:• Energy companies operated by experienced “owner-managers” and entrepreneurs who are looking for a
strategic relationship with an experienced financial partner in the industry• Energy companies focused on property acquisition and development as well as companies operating in the
midstream and oilfield services sectors• Start-up opportunities or institutions that require capital to grow or to complete acquisitions
Sampling of Active Portfolio Companies
NGP invests where a management team’s growth strategy and NGP’s sponsorship capabilities align
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
NGP has a Long History of Accessing Public Market Valuations Through IPOs and M&A
5
Since 2014 NGP portfolio companies have raised $6.1 billion in 10 IPO transactions (~50% of all North American E&P IPOs(1))
In February 2019 NGP merged WildHorse with Chesapeake Energy in a ~$4bn mostly equity transaction
In March 2017 NGP merged Fifth Creek Energy with HighPoint Energy in a ~$650mm all equity transaction
We believe that the success of NGP portfolio company IPOs has created capital markets credibility
(1) Includes all E&P and Royalty IPOs with offering size greater than $100 million since January 2014. Includes Centennial SPAC transaction. Does not include PennTex Midstream Partners and other NGP non-E&P IPOs.
Selected E&P IPOs Since 2014 Selected Public Company Mergers
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
NGP’s Leaders Under 40 Initiative is a Difference Maker
6
1) Includes impact of recycled investments.
Since 2012, NGP has:
• Formed 24 portfolio companies across NGP X, NGP XI and NGP XII led by CEOs under 40(1)
• NGP X, NGP XI and NGP XII Leaders Under 40 portfolio companies have achieved strong returns for both realized and unrealized investments
• Solidified its reputation as the leader in identifying and backing the next generation of entrepreneurs in the energy industry
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
NGP Historical Capital Allocation
7
Percent of Total Capital Committed by Industry Sector(1)
NGP I-XII November 1988 – March 2019
Acquisition, Exploitation & Development
80%
Midstream10%
Oilfield Services
3%
Other7%
Note: This slide is generally indicative of NGP’s historical investments for the Flagship Funds, but there is no guarantee that future capital will be allocated in a comparable manner. Industry sector allocations are subject to change over time as funds mature. “Other” includes agribusiness investments and investments that do not fit into other listed categories. Percentages may not total 100% due to rounding.
1) Includes capital invested by the Flagship Funds.
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
NGP Current Capital AllocationNGP Natural Resources XII, L.P. Portfolio Composition
Basin Distribution(1) Sector Mix(1)
Note: Numbers may not total due to rounding. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 1) Includes all commitments in the category specified as a percentage of the fund’s $2 billion of total commitments as of March 31, 2019.
8
SCOOP/STACK/Merge33%
DJ/Powder River Basin35%
Permian31%
Other1%
Acquisition & Development
71%
Midstream29%
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution9
Mineral and Royalty Market Update
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
How Mineral & Royalty Interests Work
10
Mineral interests are perpetual real property interests and grant ownership to all oil and gas lying below the surface of the property
• Mineral owners grant leases to operators for an initial term for an upfront cash payment to the mineral owner, known as a lease bonus
• Under the lease, the mineral owner retains a royalty interest entitling it to a cost-free percentage (usually ranging from 20-25%) of revenue from production
Working interest operators lease minerals for the right to explore or develop the interest while bearing 100% of the costs and retaining the revenues, net of 20-25% Royalty owed to the royalty interest holder
Royalty interest owners do not bear any operating expenses or capital expenditures except for severance and ad valorem taxes (~7% of revenue)
Upon termination of lease, all future development rights revert to mineral owner to explore or lease again
Unleased Minerals Leased MineralsRevenue Costs Revenue Costs
Mineral Owner 25%Mineral Owner
100% Mineral Owner
100% Operator 100%
Operator 75%
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
Why NGP Got into Minerals
11
Compelling all-in return profile with lots of optionality
Lots of undeveloped minerals to buy at attractive rates of return
Access to core rock
Development activity concentrating to known core areas
Highly fragmented market
Limited sophisticated competition
Informational advantage over most sellers
Perpetual interests; long-term option on commodity prices and technology
Emerging public markets exit options to achieve premium valuations
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
Diversified ~16,500 >600
Midland / Delaware ~14,500 ~50
Midland / Delaware ~12,000 >70
SCOOP / STACK / Merge
>10,500 >550
Delaware ~1,200 1
NGP Has Assembled a Scaled Minerals Portfolio Alongside Several Management Teams
12
Basin Focus # of Transactions
Minerals
>1,200~55,000
NRA’sAdditional NGP E&P Companies Owning Minerals and Royalties
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
How We Think About Mineral Acquisitions
13
Building Blocks of a Typical Mineral Deal
– Premium Geological Characteristics
– Multiple Pay Zones
– Consistent Well Results
– Derisked Core of Basins
– Long Lateral Drilling– Manufacture-Style
Development
– Tier 1 Capital Efficiency
– Well Capitalized Operators
– Rights to All Depths– HBP, lease clocks,
etc.
– PDP/DUCs/Permits– Number of Offset
Rigs
Underlying Rocks
Proven Well Control
High IRR Drilling
Operator Specific
Characteristics
Land Specifics
Activity
Underlying Rocks
Proven Well Control
High IRR Drilling
Operator Specific
Characteristics
Land Specifics
Activity
Every acquisition is unique and needs to stand on its own merits
How does this deal impact our overall portfolio?
In core areas timing risk is (just about) everything!
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
NGP Invests in the Lowest Breakeven Inventory
14
Note: Any change to the assumptions, however minor, will alter the outcome of the analysis. Actual breakevens for assets by oil play may differ materially from those shown on this slide. Source: Breakeven oil price per Jefferies Equity Research (April 30, 2018). 5 year average NYMEX Strip per FactSet as of March 31, 2019.
Breakevens by Oil Play (15% After-Tax IRR)
*Assumes Gas Price of $3.00 per MMBtu
–
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
Oil
Pric
e ($
/Bbl
)
NGP Portfolio Company Exposure 5-Year NYMEX Strip (March 31, 2019)Permian
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
Springer/Goddard
Caney
Lower Meramec/Sycamore/Osage
Upper Woodford
Lower Woodford
Upper Meramec/Sycamore/Osage
640 Acre Unit
26 wells per section
45%
15%
11%
29%
While Targeting Acreage with a Deep Inventory of Horizontal Locations in Stacked Pay Zones
15
NGP XI Percentage of Minerals Capital Invested by Basin
Midland Basin174 Hz Rigs
Delaware Basin243 Hz Rigs
SCOOP/STACK/Merge
97 Hz Rigs
Other Basins(Bakken, Haynesville,
Appalachia, Eagle Ford, DJ, etc.)
Note: NGP XI capital funded as of March 31, 2019. Capital invested in mineral and royalty focused only companies includes capital recycled at NGP XI Mineral Holdings, LLC.Source: Baker Hughes rig count (March 29, 2019), Jefferies Investment Banking, public company investor presentations and NGP analysis.
59 wells per section
1st Bone Spring
1st Bone Shale
2nd Bone Shale
3rd Bone Spring
Wolfcamp A
Upper Wolfcamp B
Lower Wolfcamp B
2nd Bone Spring
640 Acre Unit
Middle Spraberry
Lower Spraberry
Wolfcamp A
Upper Wolfcamp B
Lower Wolfcamp B
Wolfcamp C
640 Acre Unit
Wolfcamp D
Lower Spraberry Shale
52 wells per section
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution16
There are currently 1,006 rigs in the United States. Of the 1,006 rigs, 417 are in the Delaware and Midland Basins
Basin Has Majority Oil Rigs
Basin Has Majority Gas Rigs
“Other” U.S. Basin (Less Active)
Source: Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Rig Count (March 29, 2019).
Bakken58 Rigs
DJ Basin27 Rigs
Delaware243 Rigs
Midland174 Rigs
SCOOP/STACK97 Rigs
Eagle Ford77 Rigs
Haynesville71 Rigs
Marcellus/Utica75 Rigs
And Where Operators are Investing Significant Development Capital
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
NGP Permian Mineral and Royalty Position
17Source: DrillingInfo
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
NGP Permian Mineral and Royalty Position
18Source: DrillingInfo, Company files
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
Concentrated Rig Activity Leads to Increased Development of New Wells
19Source: DrillingInfo, Company files
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
While Well Productivity Has (Generally) Improved
20Source: Pioneer Natural Resources (April 2019 IR Presentation)
Pioneer Natural Resources April 2019 Investor Presentation
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
Permian Mineral and Royalty Market Competitive Landscape
21
Public Companies / Institutional Buyers:
Primarily look to purchase larger, marketed packages with a current yield and growth component
Generally have a lower cost of capital and longer hold period
Private Equity Portfolio Co. / Fund Buyers:
Larger, well-capitalized buyers that are focused on generating 15% - 25% returns
Deal flow edge and technical evaluation are the two main drivers of differentiation
Privately-Backed Companies / Flippers:
Mostly landmen/brokers that are using their own capital to buy deals and then immediately flipping them for a small profit or fee
Have been squeezed over the past year as more sophisticated buyers have entered the market and captured their deal flow GRB Minerals LTD
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
Permian Mineral Valuations Have Increased Significantly Since 2016
22
–
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
Midland Basin (Avg $/NRA) Delaware Basin (Avg $/NRA) 2020-2024 WTI Prices
169%
134%
10%
143 Rigs 331 Rigs 444 Rigs 462 Rigs
Source: Company files, Baker Hughes, EIA, FactSetRig count based on both horizontal and vertical rigs.
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
$894
$500
$404
$300
$1,145
$1,375
$3,305
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
2016 2017 2018
($M
M)
Institutional Capital Interest in Minerals is Growing and Driving Meaningful M&A
23
Range/OTPP
Haymaker/Kimbell
Dale/Alliance
Royal/Falcon
$2.1bn
Source: PLS
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Apr-19
($M
M)
VNOM BSM KRP FLMN MNRL
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19
LQA
Dis
trib
utio
n Yi
eld
VNOM BSM KRP FLMN
Creating an Attractive Exit Market, but Also Increasing Well Capitalized Competition
24
U.S. Mineral & Royalty Market Cap. Since KRP IPO LQA Distribution Yield Since Last Year
6.2%
9.0%
8.4%8.8%
Source: FactSet
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution25
Recent Minerals IPO Likely to Lead to Additional Public Minerals Vehicles
Confidential: Not for Reproduction or Distribution
More IPOs to come… success of Brigham IPO will lead to more mineral IPOs
Consolidation of private minerals companies to achieve scale necessary to access public markets (~$100mm NTM cash flow)
More public companies with currency will continue to be acquisitive
Continued consolidation of fragmented industry throughout buyer value chain
Mineral owners will increasingly face tough sell or hold decisions
• Unique asset class with positive free cash flow in any environment and no capex requirements
• ROI always accretes the longer you hold (but at expense of IRR?)
• Valuations must be robust to overcome the old adage of never selling your minerals
26
Conclusions
Irving, TX Houston, TX
Founded in 1988, NGP Energy Capital Management is a premier investment franchise in the natural resources sector
www.ngpenergycapital.com