‘Marshallisnotafraidtoasktoughquestionsandprovidesharpanswers…Hisapproachissimplebuteffective.Tenchapters,eachaccompaniedbyamap,covertheworld’sregionsandglobalpowers.Each showshowgeography shapesnot justhistorybutdestiny. Inanevermorecomplex, chaoticand interlinkedworld,Prisoners ofGeography is a concise andusefulprimerongeopolitics.’

–AdamLeBor,Newsweek

‘Sharpinsightsintothewaygeographyshapesthechoicesofworldleaders.’

–GideonRachman,TheWorldblog,ft.com

‘Anexceptionalwork,well-researched,arguedanddocumented…atreasureofinformationto satisfy the specialist researcher into contemporary geopolitics and offers a rivetinginsighttothegeneralreaderorstudent.…Itisallcoveredinthismagnificentbook,whichIhighlyrecommend.’

–NehadIsmail,writerandbroadcaster

‘There are few foreign correspondents in the current British media who can present anoverview of a political situation quite like TimMarshall … in Prisoners of Geography hepresents this knowledge and experience quite brilliantly. It’s a cleverlywritten book andunderlineswhatmakesTimMarshallsuchaneffectivevoiceonworldaffairs.’

–retroculturati.com

‘Marshall’slatestbookexplainshowpoliticsisnothingwithoutgeography,inhiscrispandcompelling style…What he really excels at is capturing the psychology of nations andgivingmapsapowerthatpoliticiansmusttame.’

–TopTenHolidayReads,DanLewis,Stanfords,WorldTravelGuide.net

‘Quitesimply,oneofthebestbooksaboutgeopoliticsyoucouldimagine:readingitislikehavingalightshoneonyourunderstanding…Marshallisclear-headed,lucidandpossessedofanalmostuncannyabilitytomakethebroadpictureaccessibleandcoherent…thebookis,inawaywhichastonishedme,giventhecomplexitiesofthesubject,unputdownable…Ican’tthinkofanotherbookthatexplainstheworldsituationsowell.’

–NicholasLezard,EveningStandard

‘Crisplywrittenandbrilliantlyargued.’

–DameAnnLeslie

‘Anessentialanddetailedreflectionofthegeopoliticaldynamicsthatexistglobally.’

–DrSajjanM.Gohel

PRISONERS

OFGEOGRAPHY

CONTENTS

ForewordbySirJohnScarlettKCMGOBE

Introduction

1Russia

2China

3USA

4WesternEurope

5Africa

6TheMiddleEast

7IndiaandPakistan

8KoreaandJapan

9LatinAmerica

10TheArctic

Conclusion

Bibliography

Acknowledgements

Index

I

FOREWORD

THASBECOMEATRUISMTOTHINK,ANDTOSAY,THATWELIVEINexceptionallyunstabletimes.Theworld, we are told, has never been more unpredictable. Such statements invite a

cautious, even sceptical, response. It is right to be cautious. The world has always beenunstableandthefuture,bydefinition,unpredictable.Ourcurrentworriescouldcertainlybemuchworse.Ifnothingelse,thecentenaryof1914shouldhaveremindedusofthat.All that said, fundamental changes are certainly under way, and these have real

meaning forourown futureand thatofour children,whereverwe live.Economic, socialanddemographicchange,alllinkedtorapidtechnologicalchange,haveglobalimplicationswhichmaymarkout the timeswe live innow from those thatwentbefore.Thismaybewhywe talk somuch about ‘exceptional uncertainty’ andwhy ‘geopolitical’ commentaryhasbecomeagrowthindustry.TimMarshallisunusuallywellqualified,personallyandprofessionally,tocontributeto

thisdebate.Hehasparticipateddirectlyinmanyofthemostdramaticdevelopmentsofthepasttwenty-fiveyears.AshisIntroductionremindsus,hehasbeenonthefrontlineintheBalkans, Afghanistan and Syria. He has seen how decisions and events, internationalconflictsandcivilwars,canonlybeunderstoodbytakingfullaccountof thehopes, fearsand preconceptions formed by history and how these in turn are driven by the physicalsurroundings – the geography – in which individuals, societies and countries havedeveloped.As a result, this book is full of well-judged insights of immediate relevance to our

securityandwell-being.WhathasinfluencedRussianactioninUkraine?Didwe(theWest)failtoanticipatethis?Ifso,why?HowfarwillMoscowpushnow?DoesChinaatlastfeelsecure within what it sees as natural land borders, and how will this affect Beijing’sapproachtomaritimepowerandtheUSA?Whatdoesthismeanforothercountriesintheregion, includingIndiaandJapan?Forover200yearstheUSAhasbenefitedfromhighlyfavourable geographical circumstances and natural resource endowment. Now it hasunconventional oil and gas.Will this affect its global policy? TheUSAhas extraordinarypowerandresilience,sowhyistheresomuchtalkofUSdecline?ArethedeeplyembeddeddivisionsandemotionsacrossNorthAfrica,theMiddleEastandSouthAsiaintractable,orcan we detect some hope for the future? Finally, and maybe most importantly for ourcountry,theUnitedKingdom,whichisoneofthelargestandmostglobaleconomies:howisEuropereactingtotheuncertaintiesandconflictsnearby,andnotsonearby?AsTimpoints

out,overthepastseventyyears(andespeciallysince1991)Europehasbecomeaccustomedto peace and prosperity. Are we at risk now of taking this for granted? Do we stillunderstandwhatisgoingonaroundus?Ifyouwanttothinkaboutthesequestions,readthisbook.

SirJohnScarlettKCMGOBE,ChiefSecretIntelligenceService(MI6),2004–2009

V

INTRODUCTION

LADIMIRPUTINSAYSHEISARELIGIOUSMAN,AGREATsupporteroftheRussianOrthodoxChurch.Ifso,hemaywellgotobedeachnight,sayhisprayersandaskGod:‘Whydidn’tyou

putsomemountainsinUkraine?’If God had builtmountains inUkraine, then the great expanse of flatland that is the

NorthEuropeanPlainwouldnotbesuchencouragingterritoryfromwhichtoattackRussiarepeatedly.Asitis,Putinhasnochoice:hemustatleastattempttocontroltheflatlandstothewest.Soitiswithallnations,bigorsmall.Thelandscapeimprisonstheirleaders,givingthemfewerchoicesandlessroomtomanoeuvrethanyoumightthink.ThiswastrueoftheAthenian Empire, the Persians, the Babylonians and before; it was true of every leaderseekinghighgroundfromwhichtoprotecttheirtribe.The land onwhichwe live has always shaped us. It has shaped thewars, the power,

politics and social development of the peoples that now inhabit nearly every part of theearth. Technology may seem to overcome the distances between us in both mental andphysical space, but it is easy to forget that the land where we live, work and raise ourchildren is hugely important, and that the choices of those who lead the seven billioninhabitantsof thisplanetwill tosomedegreealwaysbeshapedbytherivers,mountains,deserts,lakesandseasthatconstrainusall–astheyalwayshave.Overall there is no one geographical factor that is more important than any other.

Mountainsarenomoreimportantthandeserts,norriversthanjungles.Indifferentpartsoftheplanet,differentgeographicalfeaturesareamongthedominantfactorsindeterminingwhatpeoplecanandcannotdo.Broadly speaking, geopolitics looks at theways inwhich international affairs can be

understood through geographical factors; not just the physical landscape – the naturalbarriers of mountains or connections of river networks, for example – but also climate,demographics, cultural regions and access to natural resources. Factors such as these canhaveanimportantimpactonmanydifferentaspectsofourcivilisation,frompoliticalandmilitarystrategytohumansocialdevelopment,includinglanguage,tradeandreligion.The physical realities that underpin national and international politics are too often

disregardedboth inwritingabouthistoryandincontemporaryreportingofworldaffairs.Geographyisclearlyafundamentalpartofthe‘why’aswellasthe‘what’.Itmightnotbethe determining factor, but it is certainly themost overlooked. Take, for example, ChinaandIndia:twomassivecountrieswithhugepopulationsthatshareaverylongborderbut

are not politically or culturally aligned. Itwouldn’t be surprising if these two giants hadfoughteachother in severalwars,but in fact,apart fromonemonth-longbattle in1962,theyneverhave.Why?Becausebetweenthemisthehighestmountainrangeintheworld,and it is practically impossible to advance large military columns through or over theHimalayas. As technology becomes more sophisticated, of course, ways are emerging ofovercomingthisobstacle,butthephysicalbarrierremainsadeterrent,andsobothcountriesfocustheirforeignpolicyonotherregionswhilekeepingawaryeyeoneachother.Individualleaders,ideas,technologyandotherfactorsallplayaroleinshapingevents,

buttheyaretemporary.EachnewgenerationwillstillfacethephysicalobstructionscreatedbytheHinduKushandtheHimalayas;thechallengescreatedbytherainyseason;andthedisadvantagesoflimitedaccesstonaturalmineralsorfoodsources.I first became interested in this subjectwhen covering thewars in the Balkans in the

1990s.Iwatchedcloseathandastheleadersofvariouspeoples,betheySerbian,CroatorBosniak, deliberately reminded their ‘tribes’ of the ancient divisions and, yes, ancientsuspicions ina region crowdedwithdiversity.Once theyhadpulled thepeoples apart, itdidn’ttakemuchtothenpushthemagainsteachother.TheRiverIbarinKosovoisaprimeexample.OttomanruleoverSerbiawascementedby

the Battle of Kosovo Polje in 1389, fought nearwhere the Ibar flows through the city ofMitrovica.OverthefollowingcenturiestheSerbpopulationbegantowithdrawbehindtheIbarasMuslimAlbaniansgraduallydescendedfromthemountainousMalesijaregion intoKosovo,wheretheybecameamajoritybythemideighteenthcentury.Fast-forwardtothetwentiethcenturyandtherewasstillaclearethnic/religiousdivision

roughlymarkedbytheriver.Thenin1999,batteredbyNATOfromtheairandtheKosovoLiberationArmyon theground, theYugoslav (Serbian)military retreatedacross the Ibar,quicklyfollowedbymostoftheremainingSerbpopulation.TheriverbecamethedefactoborderofwhatsomecountriesnowrecogniseastheindependentstateofKosovo.MitrovicawasalsowheretheadvancingNATOgroundforcescametoahalt.Duringthe

three-monthwartherehadbeenveiledthreatsthatNATOintendedtoinvadeallofSerbia.Intruth,therestraintsofbothgeographyandpoliticsmeanttheNATOleadersneverreallyhad thatoption.Hungaryhadmade it clear that itwouldnot allowan invasion from itsterritory, as it feared reprisals against the350,000ethnicHungarians innorthernSerbia.Thealternativewasaninvasionfromthesouth,whichwouldhavegotthemtotheIbarindouble-quicktime;butNATOwouldthenhavefacedthemountainsabovethem.I was working with a team of Serbs in Belgrade at the time and asked what would

happen ifNATOcame: ‘Wewill put our camerasdown,Tim, andpickupguns,’was theresponse.TheywereliberalSerbs,goodfriendsofmineandopposedtotheirgovernment,

but they still pulled out the maps and showed me where the Serbs would defend theirterritoryinthemountains,andwhereNATOwouldgrindtoahalt.Itwassomerelieftobegivenageography lesson inwhyNATO’s choicesweremore limited than theBrusselsPRmachinemadepublic.Anunderstandingof how crucial the physical landscapewas in reportingnews in the

Balkansstoodmeingoodsteadintheyearswhichfollowed.Forexample, in2001,afewweeks after 9/11, I saw a demonstration of how, evenwith today’smodern technology,climate still dictates themilitarypossibilities of even theworld’smost powerful armies. IwasinnorthernAfghanistan,havingcrossedtheborderriverfromTajikistanonaraft, inordertolinkupwiththeNorthernAlliance(NA)troopswhowerefightingtheTaliban.TheAmericanfighterjetsandbomberswerealreadyoverhead,poundingTalibanandAl

Qaedapositionsonthecold,dustyplainsandhillseastofMazar-e-Sharifinordertopavethe way for the advance on Kabul. After a few weeks it was obvious that the NA weregearinguptomovesouth.Andthentheworldchangedcolour.The most intense sandstorm I have ever experienced blew in, turning everything a

mustard-yellowcolour.Eventheairaroundusseemedtobethishue, thickas itwaswithsand particles. For thirty-six hours nothing moved except the sand. At the height of thestormyoucouldn’tseemorethanafewyardsaheadofyou,andtheonlythingclearwasthattheadvancewouldhavetowaitfortheweather.TheAmericans’satellitetechnology,atthecuttingedgeofscience,washelpless,blindin

thefaceoftheclimateofthiswildland.Everyone,fromPresidentBushandtheJointChiefsofStafftotheNAtroopsontheground,justhadtowait.Thenitrained,andthesandthathadsettledoneverythingandeveryoneturnedintomud.Theraincamedownsohardthatthebaked-mudhutswewere living in lookedas if theyweremelting.Again itwas clearthat the move south was on hold until geography finished having its say. The rules ofgeography, which Hannibal, Sun Tzu and Alexander the Great all knew, still apply totoday’sleaders.More recently, in2012, Iwasgivenanother lesson ingeostrategy:asSyriadescended

intofull-blowncivilwar,IwasstandingonaSyrianhilltop,overlookingavalleysouthofthecityofHama,andsawahamletburning in thedistance.Syrian friendspointedoutamuch larger village about amile away, fromwhere they said the attackhad come.Theythenexplainedthatifonesidecouldpushenoughpeoplefromtheotherfactionoutofthevalley, then the valley could be joined onto other land that led to the country’s onlymotorway,andassuchwouldbeusefulincarvingoutapieceofcontiguousviableterritorywhichonedaycouldbeusedtocreateamini-stateletifSyriacouldnotbeputbacktogetheragain.WherebeforeIsawonlyaburninghamlet,Icouldnowseeitsstrategicimportance

andunderstandhowpoliticalrealitiesareshapedbythemostbasicphysicalrealities.Geopoliticsaffectseverycountry,whetheratwar,asintheexamplesabove,oratpeace.

Therewillbeinstancesineveryregionyoucanname.InthesepagesIcannotexploreeachone: Canada, Australia and Indonesia, among others, get nomore than a briefmention,although a whole book could be devoted to Australia alone and the ways in which itsgeography has shaped its connectionswith other parts of theworld, both physically andculturally. Instead I have focused on the powers and regions that best illustrate the keypointsof thebook, covering the legacyofgeopolitics from thepast (nation-forming); themostpressingsituationswefacetoday(thetroublesinUkraine,theexpandinginfluenceofChina);andlookingtothefuture(growingcompetitionintheArctic).InRussiaweseetheinfluenceoftheArctic,andhowitsfreezingclimatelimitsRussia’s

abilitytobeatrulyglobalpower.InChinaweseethelimitationsofpowerwithoutaglobalnavy.ThechapterontheUSAillustrateshowshrewddecisionstoexpanditsterritoryinkeyregionsallowedittoachieveitsmoderndestinyasatwo-oceansuperpower.Europeshowsus the value of flat land andnavigable rivers in connecting regionswith each other andproducingacultureabletokick-startthemodernworld,whileAfricaisaprimeexampleoftheeffectsofisolation.The chapter on the Middle East demonstrates why drawing lines on maps while

disregardingthetopographyand,equallyimportantly,thegeographicalculturesinagivenareaisarecipefortrouble.Wewillcontinuetowitnessthattroublethiscentury.Thesametheme surfaces in the chapters on Africa and India/Pakistan. The colonial powers drewartificialbordersonpaper,completelyignoringthephysicalrealitiesoftheregion.Violentattemptsarenowbeingmadetoredrawthem;thesewillcontinueforseveralyears,afterwhichthemapofnationstateswillnolongerlookasitdoesnow.VerydifferentfromtheexamplesofKosovoorSyriaareJapanandKorea,inthatthey

are mostly ethnically homogeneous. But they have other problems: Japan is an islandnationdevoidofnaturalresourceswhilethedivisionoftheKoreasisaproblemstillwaitingtobesolved.Meanwhile,LatinAmericaisananomaly.Initsfarsouthitissocutofffromtheoutsideworldthatglobaltradingisdifficult,anditsinternalgeographyisabarriertocreatingatradingblocassuccessfulastheEU.Finally,wecometooneofthemostuninhabitableplacesonearth–theArctic.Formost

ofhistoryhumanshaveignoredit,butinthetwentiethcenturywefoundenergythere,andtwenty-first-centurydiplomacywilldeterminewhoowns–andsells–thatresource.Seeinggeographyasadecisivefactorinthecourseofhumanhistorycanbeconstruedas

ableakviewoftheworld,whichiswhyitisdislikedinsomeintellectualcircles.Itsuggeststhatnatureismorepowerfulthanman,andthatwecanonlygosofarindeterminingour

own fate. However, other factors clearly have an influence on events too. Any sensiblepersoncanseethatmoderntechnologyisnowbendingtheironrulesofgeography.Ithasfound ways over, under, or through some of the barriers. The Americans can now fly aplaneallthewayfromMissouritoMosulonabombingmissionwithoutneedingconcretealong the way on which to refuel. That, along with their partially self-sustaining greatAircraftCarrierBattleGroups,meanstheynolongerabsolutelyhavetohaveanallyoracolonyinordertoextendtheirglobalreacharoundtheworld.Ofcourse,iftheydohaveanairbaseontheislandofDiegoGarcia,orpermanentaccesstotheportinBahrain,thentheyhavemoreoptions;butitislessessential.So air power has changed the rules, as in a different way has the internet. But

geography, and the history of how nations have established themselves within thatgeography,remainscrucialtoourunderstandingoftheworldtodayandourfuture.The conflict in Iraq and Syria is rooted in colonial powers ignoring the rules of

geography,whereas theChineseoccupationofTibet is rooted inobeying them;America’sglobal foreign policy is dictated by them, and even the technological genius and powerprojectionofthelastsuperpowerstandingcanonlymitigatetherulesthatnature,orGod,handeddown.Whatarethoserules?Theplacetobeginisinthelandwherepowerishardtodefend,

and so for centuries its leaders have compensated by pushing outwards. It is the landwithoutmountainstoitswest:Russia.

CHAPTER1

RUSSIA

Vast(adjective;vaster,vastest):ofverygreatareaorextent;immense.

R

USSIAISVAST.ITISVASTEST.IMMENSE.ITISSIXMILLIONSQUAREmilesvast,eleventimezonesvast;itisthelargestcountryintheworld.Its forests, lakes, rivers, frozen tundra, steppe, taiga andmountains are all vast. This

size has long seeped into our collective consciousness.Whereverwe are, there is Russia,perhapstooureast,orwest,toournorthorsouth–butthereistheRussianBear.It is no coincidence that the bear is the symbol of this immense size. There it sits,

sometimeshibernating,sometimesgrowling,majestic,butferocious.BearisaRussianword,buttheRussiansarealsowaryofcallingthisanimalbyitsname,fearfulofconjuringupitsdarkerside.Theycallitmedved,‘theonewholikeshoney’.Atleast120,000ofthesemedvedsliveinacountrywhichbestridesEuropeandAsia.To

thewestoftheUralMountainsisEuropeanRussia.TotheireastisSiberia,stretchingallthewaytotheBeringSeaandthePacificOcean.Eveninthetwenty-firstcentury,tocrossitbytraintakessixdays.Russia’sleadersmustlookacrossthesedistances,anddifferences,andformulatepolicyaccordingly; forseveralcenturiesnowtheyhavelookedinalldirections,butconcentratedmostlywestward.When writers seek to get to the heart of the bear they often useWinston Churchill’s

famousobservationofRussia,madein1939:‘Itisariddlewrappedinamysteryinsideanenigma’,butfewgoontocompletethesentence,whichends, ‘butperhapsthereisakey.That key is Russian national interest.’ Seven years later he used that key to unlock hisversion of the answer to the riddle, asserting, ‘I am convinced that there is nothing theyadmiresomuchasstrength,andthereisnothingforwhichtheyhavelessrespectthanforweakness,especiallymilitaryweakness.’He couldhavebeen talking about the currentRussian leadership,whichdespite being

nowwrappedinthecloakofdemocracy,remainsauthoritarianinitsnaturewithnationalintereststillatitscore.WhenVladimirPutinisn’tthinkingaboutGod,andmountains,he’sthinkingaboutpizza.

Inparticular,theshapeofasliceofpizza–awedge.The thin end of thiswedge is Poland.Here, the vastNorth European Plain stretching

from France to the Urals (which extend 1,000 miles south to north, forming a naturalboundarybetweenEuropeandAsia)isonly300mileswide.ItrunsfromtheBalticSeainthenorthtotheCarpathianMountainsinthesouth.TheNorthEuropeanPlainencompassesall of western and northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, northern Germany andnearlyallofPoland.FromaRussianperspectivethisisadouble-edgedsword.Polandrepresentsarelatively

narrowcorridorintowhichRussiacoulddriveitsarmedforcesifnecessaryandthusprevent

an enemy from advancing towards Moscow. But from this point the wedge begins tobroaden;bythetimeyougettoRussia’sbordersitisover2,000mileswide,andisflatallthe way toMoscow and beyond. Even with a large army you would be hard-pressed todefend in strength along this line. However, Russia has never been conquered from thisdirection partially due to its strategic depth. By the time an army approachesMoscow italreadyhasunsustainably long supply lines, amistake thatNapoleonmade in1812, andthatHitlerrepeatedin1941.Likewise, in theRussianFarEast it is geography that protectsRussia. It is difficult to

moveanarmyfromAsiaupintoAsianRussia;there’snotmuchtoattackexceptforsnow,andyoucouldonlygetasfarastheUrals.Youwouldthenendupholdingamassivepieceof territory, in difficult conditions, with long supply lines and the ever-present risk of acounter-attack.You might think that no one is intent on invading Russia, but that is not how the

Russiansseeit,andwithgoodreason.Inthepast500yearstheyhavebeeninvadedseveraltimesfromthewest.ThePolescameacrosstheNorthEuropeanPlainin1605,followedbytheSwedesunderCharlesXIIin1708,theFrenchunderNapoleonin1812,andtheGermanstwice,inbothworldwars,in1914and1941.Lookingatitanotherway,ifyoucountfromNapoleon’sinvasionof1812,butthistimeincludetheCrimeanWarof1853–6andthetwoworldwarsupto1945,thentheRussianswerefightingonaverageinoraroundtheNorthEuropeanPlainonceeverythirty-threeyears.At the end of the Second World War in 1945, the Russians occupied the territory

conqueredfromGermanyinCentralandEasternEurope,someofwhichthenbecamepartoftheUSSR,asitincreasinglybegantoresembletheoldRussianEmpire.In1949theNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)wasformedbyanassociationofEuropeanandNorthAmerican states, for the defence of Europe and the North Atlantic against the danger ofSoviet aggression. In response,most of the Communist states of Europe – under Russianleadership–formedtheWarsawPactin1955,atreatyformilitarydefenceandmutualaid.The Pact was supposed to be made of iron, but with hindsight by the early 1980s wasrusting,andafterthefalloftheBerlinWallin1989itcrumbledtodust.PresidentPutinisnofanofthelastSovietPresident,MikhailGorbachev.Heblameshim

for undermining Russian security and has referred to the break-up of the former SovietUnionduringthe1990sas‘amajorgeopoliticaldisasterofthecentury’.Since then the Russians have watched anxiously as NATO has crept steadily closer,

incorporating countries which Russia claims it was promised would not be joining: theCzech Republic, Hungary and Poland in 1999, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,RomaniaandSlovakia in2004andAlbania in2009.NATOsaysnosuchassuranceswere

given.Russia,likeallgreatpowers,isthinkingintermsofthenext100yearsandunderstands

that in that time anything could happen. A century ago, who could have guessed thatAmericanarmedforceswouldbestationedafewhundredmilesfromMoscowinPolandandtheBalticStates?By2004, just fifteenyears from1989,everysingle formerWarsawPactstatebarRussiawasinNATOortheEuropeanUnion.The Moscow administration’s mind has been concentrated by that, and by Russia’s

history.RussiaasaconceptdatesbacktotheninthcenturyandaloosefederationofEastSlavic

tribesknownasKievanRus’,whichwasbasedinKievandothertownsalongtheDnieperRiver,inwhatisnowUkraine.TheMongols,expandingtheirempire,continuallyattackedtheregionfromthesouthandeast,eventuallyoverrunningitinthethirteenthcentury.Thefledgling Russia then relocated north-east in and around the city of Moscow. This earlyRussia, known as the Grand Principality of Muscovy, was indefensible. There were nomountains,nodesertsandfewrivers.Inalldirectionslayflatland,andacrossthesteppetothesouthandeastweretheMongols.Theinvadercouldadvanceataplaceofhischoosing,andtherewerefewnaturaldefensivepositionstooccupy.Enter Ivan the Terrible, the first Tsar. He put into practice the concept of attack as

defence – i.e., beginning your expansion by consolidating at home and then movingoutwards. This led to greatness. Here was a man to give support to the theory thatindividualscanchangehistory.Withouthischaracterofbothutterruthlessnessandvision,Russianhistorywouldbedifferent.ThefledglingRussiahadbegunamoderateexpansionunderIvan’sgrandfather,Ivanthe

Great, but that expansion accelerated after the younger Ivan came to power in 1533. ItencroachedeastontheUrals,southtotheCaspianSeaandnorthtowardstheArcticCircle.It gained access to the Caspian, and later the Black Sea, thus taking advantage of theCaucasusMountainsasapartialbarrierbetweenitandtheMongols.AmilitarybasewasbuiltinChechnyatodeteranywould-beattackers,betheytheMongolGoldenHordes,theOttomanEmpireorthePersians.Therewere setbacks, but over the next centuryRussiawould push past theUrals and

edgeintoSiberia,eventuallyincorporatingallthelandtothePacificcoastfartotheeast.Now the Russians had a partial buffer zone and a hinterland – strategic depth –

somewheretofallbacktointhecaseofinvasion.Noonewasgoingtoattacktheminforcefrom the Arctic Sea, nor fight their way over the Urals to get to them. Their land wasbecomingwhatweknownowasRussia,andtoget to it fromthesouthorsouth-eastyouhad to have a huge army, a very long supply line, and fight your way past defensive

positions.In the eighteenth century, Russia – under Peter the Great, who founded the Russian

Empirein1721,andthenEmpressCatherinetheGreat– lookedwestward,expandingtheEmpire to become one of the great powers of Europe, driven chiefly by trade andnationalism.AmoresecureandpowerfulRussiawasnowabletooccupyUkraineandreachtheCarpathianMountains. It tookovermostofwhatwenowknowas theBalticStates–Lithuania,LatviaandEstonia.Thusitwasprotectedfromanyincursionvialandthatway,orfromtheBalticSea.NowtherewasahugeringaroundMoscowwhichwastheheartofthecountry.Starting

attheArctic,itcamedownthroughtheBalticregion,acrossUkraine,thentheCarpathians,the Black Sea, the Caucasus and the Caspian, swinging back round to the Urals, whichstretcheduptotheArcticCircle.InthetwentiethcenturyCommunistRussiacreatedtheSovietUnion.Behindtherhetoric

of‘WorkersoftheWorldUnite’,theUSSRwassimplytheRussianEmpirewritlarge.AftertheSecondWorldWaritstretchedfromthePacifictoBerlin,fromtheArctictothebordersofAfghanistan–asuperpowereconomically,politicallyandmilitarily,rivalledonlybytheUSA.Russiaisthebiggestcountryintheworld,twicethesizeoftheUSAorChina,fivetimes

the sizeof India, twenty-five times the sizeof theUK.However, it has a relatively smallpopulation of about 144million, fewer people than Nigeria or Pakistan. Its agriculturalgrowingseasonisshortanditstrugglestoadequatelydistributewhatisgrownaroundtheeleventimezoneswhichMoscowgoverns.Russia,uptotheUrals, isaEuropeanpowerinsofaras itborderstheEuropeanland

mass, but it is not an Asian power despite bordering Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China andNorthKorea,andhavingmaritimeborderswithseveralcountriesincludingJapanandtheUSA.FormerUSVicePresidentialcandidateSarahPalinwasmockedwhenshewasreported

assaying,‘YoucanactuallyseeRussiafromlandhereinAlaska’,alinewhichmorphedinmediacoverageto‘IcanseeRussiafrommyhouse.’Whatshereallysaidwas,‘YoucanseeRussiafromlandhereinAlaska,fromanislandinAlaska.’Shewasright.ARussianislandin the Bering Strait is two and a halfmiles from anAmerican island in the Strait, LittleDiomede Island, and can be seen with the naked eye. You can indeed see Russia fromAmerica.High up in theUrals there is a crossmarking the placewhere Europe stops andAsia

starts.Whentheskiesareclearitisabeautifulspotandyoucanseethroughthefirtreesformilestowardstheeast.Inwinteritissnow-covered,asistheSiberianPlainyouseebelow

you stretching towards the city of Yekaterinburg. Tourists like to visit to put one foot inEuropeandoneinAsia.ItisareminderofjusthowbigRussiaiswhenyourealisethatthecrossisplacedmerelyaquarterofthewayintothecountry.Youmayhavetravelled1,500miles from St Petersburg, throughwestern Russia, to get to the Urals, but you still haveanother4,500milestogobeforereachingtheBeringStrait,andapossiblesightingofMrsPalin,acrossfromAlaskaintheUSA.ShortlyafterthefalloftheSovietUnionIwasintheUrals,atthepointwhereEurope

becomes Asia, accompanied by a Russian camera crew. The cameraman was a taciturn,stoic, grizzledveteranof filming, andwas the sonof theRedArmycameramanwhohadfilmedagreatdealoffootageduringtheGermansiegeofStalingrad.Iaskedhim,‘So,areyou European or are you Asian?’ He reflected on this for a few seconds, then replied,‘Neither–IamRussian.’Whatever its European credentials, Russia is not an Asian power for many reasons.

Although75percentofitsterritoryisinAsia,only22percentofitspopulationlivesthere.SiberiamaybeRussia’s‘treasurechest’,containingthemajorityofthemineralwealth,oil,andgas,butitisaharshland,freezingformonthsonend,withvastforests(taiga),poorsoilforfarmingandlargestretchesofswampland.Onlytworailwaynetworksrunwesttoeast – the Trans-Siberian and the Baikal–AmurMainline. There are few transport routesleading north to south and so no easy way for Russia to project power southward intomodernMongoliaorChina:itlacksthemanpowerandsupplylinestodoso.China may well eventually control parts of Siberia in the long-term future, but this

would be through Russia’s declining birth rate and Chinese immigration moving north.Already,asfarwestastheswampyWestSiberianPlain,betweentheUralsinthewestandtheYeniseiRiver 1,000miles to the east, you can seeChinese restaurants inmost of thetowns and cities. Many more different businesses are coming. The empty depopulatingspaces of Russia’s Far East are even more likely to come under Chinese cultural, andeventuallypolitical,control.WhenyoumoveoutsideoftheRussianheartland,muchofthepopulationintheRussian

FederationisnotethnicallyRussianandpayslittleallegiancetoMoscow,whichresultsinanaggressivesecuritysystemsimilartotheoneinSovietdays.DuringthateraRussiawaseffectivelya colonialpower rulingovernationsandpeoplewho felt theyhadnothing incommonwiththeirmasters;partsof theRussianFederation– forexample,ChechnyaandDagestanintheCaucasus–stillfeelthesameway.Late in the last century, overstretch, spending more money than was available, the

economicsofthemadhouseinalandnotdesignedforpeople,anddefeatinthemountainsofAfghanistanallledtothefalloftheUSSR.TheRussianEmpireshrankbacktotheshape

ofmoreorlessthepre-CommunisterawithitsEuropeanbordersendingatEstonia,Latvia,Belarus,Ukraine,GeorgiaandAzerbaijan.TheSoviet invasionofAfghanistan in1979, insupport of theCommunistAfghangovernment against anti-CommunistMuslimguerrillas,hadneverbeenaboutbringing the joysofMarxist-Leninism to theAfghanpeople. ItwasalwaysaboutensuringthatMoscowcontrolledthespacetopreventanyoneelsefromdoingso.Crucially,theinvasionofAfghanistanalsogavehopetothegreatRussiandreamofits

armybeingableto‘washtheirbootsinthewarmwatersoftheIndianocean’,inthewordsoftheultra-nationalisticRussianpoliticianVladimirZhirinovsky,andthusachievewhatitneverhad:awarm-waterportwherethewaterdoesnotfreezeinwinter,withfreeaccesstothe world’s major trading routes. The ports on the Arctic, such as Murmansk, freeze forseveralmonthseachyear:Vladivostok,thelargestRussianportonthePacificOcean,isice-lockedforaboutfourmonthsandisenclosedbytheSeaofJapan,whichisdominatedbytheJapanese.Thisdoesnot justhalt the flowof trade; itprevents theRussian fleet fromoperatingasaglobalpower.Inaddition,water-bornetransportismuchcheaperthanlandorairborneroutes.Thislackofawarm-waterportwithdirectaccesstotheoceanshasalwaysbeenRussia’s

Achilles heel, as strategically important to it as theNorth European Plain. Russia is at ageographicaldisadvantage,savedfrombeingamuchweakerpoweronlybecauseofitsoiland gas.Nowonder, in hiswill of 1725, that Peter theGreat advised his descendants to‘approachasnearaspossibletoConstantinopleandIndia.Whoevergoverns therewillbethe true sovereignof theworld.Consequently, excite continualwars,notonly inTurkey,butinPersia…PenetrateasfarasthePersianGulf,advanceasfarasIndia.’When the Soviet Union broke apart, it split into fifteen countries. Geography had its

revengeontheideologyoftheSovietsandamorelogicalpicturereappearedonthemap,oneinwhichmountains,rivers, lakesandseasdelineatewherepeoplelive,areseparatedfromeachotherandthushowtheydevelopdifferentlanguagesandcustoms.Theexceptionsto this rule are the ‘Stans’, such asTajikistan,whose borderswere deliberately drawnbyStalinsoastoweakeneachstatebyensuringithadlargeminoritiesofpeoplefromotherstates.If you take the longviewofhistory– andmostdiplomats andmilitaryplannersdo–

thenthere isstilleverythingtoplayfor ineachof thestateswhichformerlymadeuptheUSSR, plus some of those previously in theWarsaw Pact military alliance. They can bedivided three ways: those that are neutral, the pro-Western group and the pro-Russiancamp.Theneutralcountries–Uzbekistan,AzerbaijanandTurkmenistan–arethosewithfewer

reasonstoally themselveswithRussiaor theWest.This isbecauseall threeproducetheirownenergyandarenotbeholdentoeithersidefortheirsecurityortrade.Inthepro-RussiancampareKazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,BelarusandArmenia.

Theireconomiesare tied toRussia in theway thatmuchofeasternUkraine’seconomy is(another reason for the rebellion there). The largest of these, Kazakhstan, leans towardsRussiadiplomatically and its largeRussian-minoritypopulation iswell integrated.Of thefive,KazakhstanandBelarushavejoinedRussiainthenewEurasianUnion(asortofpoorman’sEU)andallareinamilitaryalliancewithRussiacalledtheCollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization.TheCSTOsuffers fromnothavinganameyoucanboildowntooneword,and from being a watered-down Warsaw Bloc. Russia maintains a military presence inKyrgyzstan,TajikistanandArmenia.Then there are thepro-Western countries formerly in theWarsawPactbutnowall in

NATO and/or the EU: Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria,Hungary,Slovakia,AlbaniaandRomania.Bynocoincidence,manyareamong the stateswhich sufferedmost under Soviet tyranny. Add to these Georgia, Ukraine andMoldova,whichwouldallliketojoinbothorganisationsbutarebeingheldatarm’slengthbecauseoftheir geographic proximity to Russia and because all three have Russian troops or pro-Russianmilitiaontheirsoil.NATOmembershipofanyofthesethreecouldsparkawar.Alloftheaboveexplainswhy,in2013,asthepoliticalbattleforthedirectionofUkraine

heatedup,Moscowconcentratedhard.Aslongasapro-RussiangovernmentheldswayinKiev,theRussianscouldbeconfident

that its buffer zone would remain intact and guard the North European Plain. Even astudiedlyneutralUkraine,whichwouldpromisenottojointheEUorNATOandtoupholdtheleaseRussiahadonthewarm-waterportatSevastopolinCrimea,wouldbeacceptable.That Ukrainewas reliant on Russia for energy alsomade its increasingly neutral stanceacceptable,albeitirritating.Butapro-WesternUkrainewithambitionstojointhetwogreatWestern alliances, and which threw into doubt Russia’s access to its Black Sea port? AUkrainethatonedaymightevenhostaNATOnavalbase?Thatcouldnotstand.President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine tried to play both sides. He flirted with the

West, but paid homage to Moscow – thus Putin tolerated him. When he came close tosigningamassivetradeagreementwiththeEU,onewhichcouldleadtomembership,Putinbeganturningthescrew.FortheRussianforeignpolicyelite,membershipoftheEUissimplyastalkinghorsefor

membershipofNATO,andforRussia,UkrainianmembershipofNATOisaredline.Putinpiled the pressure on Yanukovych, made him an offer he chose not to refuse, and theUkrainian president scrambled out of the EU deal and made a pact with Moscow, thus

sparkingtheprotestswhichwereeventuallytooverthrowhim.TheGermansandAmericanshadbackedtheoppositionparties,withBerlininparticular

seeingformerworldboxingchampionturnedpoliticianVitalyKlitschkoastheirman.TheWest was pulling Ukraine intellectually and economically towards it whilst helping pro-WesternUkrainians topush itwestwardby training and funding someof thedemocraticoppositiongroups.StreetfightingeruptedinKievanddemonstrationsacrossthecountrygrew.Intheeast,

crowdscameoutinsupportofthePresident,whileinthewestofthecountry,incitiessuchasL’viv(whichusedtobeinPoland),theywerebusytryingtoridthemselvesofanypro-Russianinfluence.Bymid-February 2014 L’viv and other urban areas were no longer controlled by the

government.Thenon22February,afterdozensofdeathsinKiev,thePresident,fearingforhis life, fled.Anti-Russianfactions,someofwhichwerepro-Westernandsomepro-fascist,tookoverthegovernment.Fromthatmomentthediewascast.PresidentPutindidnothavemuch of a choice – he had to annex Crimea, which contained not only many Russian-speakingUkrainiansbut,mostimportantly,theportofSevastopol.Sevastopol is Russia’s only true major warm-water port. However, access out of the

BlackSeaintotheMediterraneanisrestrictedbytheMontreuxConventionof1936,whichgave Turkey – now a NATO member – control of the Bosporus. Russian naval ships dotransit thestrait,but in limitednumbers,andthiswouldnotbepermitted in theeventofconflict. Even after crossing the Bosporus the Russians need to navigate the Aegean SeabeforeaccessingtheMediterranean,andwouldstillhaveeithertocrosstheGibraltarStraitstogainaccesstotheAtlanticOcean,orbealloweddowntheSuezCanaltoreachtheIndianOcean.TheRussiansdohaveasmallnavalpresence inTartusonSyria’sMediterraneancoast

(thispartiallyexplainstheirsupportfortheSyriangovernmentwhenfightingbrokeoutin2011),butitisalimitedsupplyandreplenishmentbase,notamajorforce.AnotherstrategicproblemisthatintheeventofwartheRussiannavycannotgetoutof

the Baltic Sea either, due to the Skagerrak Strait, which connects to the North Sea. ThenarrowstraitiscontrolledbyNATOmembersDenmarkandNorway;andeveniftheshipsmade it, the route to the Atlantic goes through what is known as the GIUK gap(Greenland/Iceland/UK) in theNorth Sea –whichwewill seemore ofwhenwe look atWesternEurope.Having annexed Crimea, the Russians arewasting no time. They are building up the

Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol and constructing a new naval port in the Russian city ofNovorossiysk which, although it does not have a natural deep harbour, will give the

Russians extra capacity. Eighty new ships are being commissioned, as well as severalsubmarines.The fleetwill stillnotbestrongenough tobreakoutof theBlackSeaduringwartime,butitscapacityisincreasing.Tocounterthis,inthenextdecadewecanexpecttoseetheUSAencouragingitsNATO

partnerRomaniatoboostitsfleetintheBlackSeawhilstrelyingonTurkeytoholdthelineacrosstheBosporus.Crimea was part of Russia for two centuries before being transferred to the Soviet

RepublicofUkrainein1954byPresidentKhrushchevatatimewhenitwasenvisagedthatSovietmanwouldliveforeverandsobecontrolledbyMoscowforever.NowthatUkrainewasnolongerSoviet,orevenpro-Russian,Putinknewthesituationhadtochange.DidtheWesterndiplomatsknow?Iftheydidn’t,thentheywereunawareofRuleA,LessonOne,in‘DiplomacyforBeginners’:whenfacedwithwhatisconsideredanexistentialthreat,agreatpower will use force. If they were aware, then they must have considered Putin’sannexationofCrimeaapriceworthpayingforpullingUkraineintomodernEuropeandtheWesternsphereofinfluence.AgenerousviewisthattheUSAandtheEuropeanswerelookingforwardtowelcoming

Ukraineintothedemocraticworldasafullmemberofitsliberalinstitutionsandtheruleoflaw,andthattherewasn’tmuchMoscowcoulddoaboutit.Thatisaviewwhichdoesnottake into account the fact that geopolitics still exists in the twenty-first century, or thatRussiadoesnotplaybytheruleoflaw.Flushed with victory, the new interim Ukrainian government had immediately made

some foolish statements, not least of which was the intention to abolish Russian as theofficialsecondlanguageinvariousregions.Giventhattheseregionsweretheoneswiththemost Russian speakers and pro-Russian sentiment, and indeed included Crimea, this wasboundtosparkabacklash.ItalsogavePresidentPutinthepropagandaheneededtomakethecasethatethnicRussiansinsideUkraineneededtobeprotected.The Kremlin has a lawwhich compels the government to protect ‘ethnic Russians’. A

definitionof that termis,bydesign,hardtocomebybecause itwillbedefinedasRussiachoosesineachofthepotentialcriseswhichmayeruptintheformerSovietUnion.Whenitsuits theKremlin, ethnicRussianswillbedefined simplyaspeoplewho speakRussianastheirfirstlanguage.Atothertimesthenewcitizenshiplawwillbeused,whichstatesthatifyour grandparents lived in Russia, and Russian is your native language, you can takeRussiancitizenship.Giventhat,asthecrisesarise,peoplewillbeinclinedtoacceptRussianpassportstohedgetheirbets,thiswillbealeverforRussianentryintoaconflict.Approximately60percentofCrimea’spopulationis‘ethnicallyRussian’,sotheKremlin

waspushingagainstanopendoor.Putinhelpedtheanti-Kievdemonstrations,andstirred

up somuch trouble that eventually he ‘had’ to send his troops out of the confines of thenavalbaseandontothestreetstoprotectpeople.TheUkrainianmilitaryintheareawasinnoshapetotakeonboththepeopleandtheRussianarmy,andswiftlywithdrew.CrimeawasonceagaindefactoapartofRussia.You could make the argument that President Putin did have a choice: he could have

respected the territorial integrity of Ukraine. But, given that he was dealing with thegeographichandGodhasdealtRussia,thiswasneverreallyanoption.Hewouldnotbethemanwho‘lostCrimea’,andwithittheonlyproperwarm-waterporthiscountryhadaccessto.NoonerodetotherescueofUkraineasitlostterritoryequivalenttothesizeofBelgium,

or the US state of Maryland. Ukraine and its neighbours knew a geographic truth: thatunlessyouareinNATO,Moscowisnear,WashingtonDCisfaraway.ForRussiathiswasanexistentialmatter:theycouldnotcopewithlosingCrimea,theWestcould.The EU imposed limited sanctions – limited because several European countries,

Germany among them, are reliant onRussian energy to heat their homes inwinter. ThepipelinesruneasttowestandtheKremlincanturnthetapsonandoff.Energyaspoliticalpowerwillbedeployedtimeandagaininthecomingyears,andthe

conceptof‘ethnicRussians’willbeusedtojustifywhatevermovesRussiamakes.Inaspeechin2014PresidentPutinbrieflyreferredto‘Novorossiya’or‘NewRussia’.The

Kremlin-watcherstookadeepbreath.HehadrevivedthegeographictitlegiventowhatisnowsouthernandeasternUkraine,whichRussiahadwonfromtheOttomanEmpireduringthereignofCatherinetheGreatinthelateeighteenthcentury.CatherinewentontosettleRussians in these regions anddemanded thatRussianbe the first language. ‘Novorossiya’was only ceded to the newly formedUkrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1922. ‘Why?’askedPutinrhetorically,‘LetGodjudgethem.’InhisspeechhelistedtheUkrainianregionsof Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson,Mykolaiv and Odessa before saying, ‘Russia losttheseterritoriesforvariousreasons,butthepeopleremained.’Several million ethnic Russians still remain inside what was the USSR, but outside

Russia.Itisnosurprisethat,afterseizingCrimea,Russiawentontoencouragetheuprisingsby

pro-RussiansintheUkrainianeasternindustrialheartlandsinLuhanskandDonetsk.Russiacouldeasilydrivemilitarilyall theway to theeasternbankof theDnieperRiver inKiev.But itdoesnotneedtheheadachethatwouldbring. It is far lesspainful,andcheaper, toencourageunrest in theeasternbordersofUkraineandremindKievwhocontrolsenergysupplies, to ensure that Kiev’s infatuation with the flirtatiousWest does not turn into amarriageconsummatedinthechambersoftheEUorNATO.

CovertsupportfortheuprisingsineasternUkrainewasalsologisticallysimpleandhadthe added benefit of deniability on the international stage. Barefaced lying in the greatchamberoftheUNSecurityCouncilissimpleifyouropponentdoesnothaveconcreteproofofyouractionsand,moreimportantly,doesn’twantconcreteproofincaseheorshehastodosomethingaboutit.ManypoliticiansintheWestbreathedasighofreliefandmutteredquietly,‘ThankgoodnessUkraineisn’tinNATOorwewouldhavehadtoact.’TheannexationofCrimeashowedhowRussiaispreparedformilitaryactiontodefend

whatitseesasitsinterestsinwhatitcallsits‘nearabroad’.Ittookarationalgamblethatoutsidepowerswouldnotintervene,andCrimeawas‘doable’.ItisclosetoRussia,couldbesuppliedacrosstheBlackSeaandtheSeaofAzov,andcouldrelyoninternalsupportfromlargesectionsofthepopulationofthepeninsula.RussiahasnotfinishedwithUkraineyet,norelsewhere.UnlessitfeelsthreatenedRussia

willprobablynotsenditstroopsallthewayintotheBalticStates,oranyfurtherforwardthan it already is in Georgia; but it will push its power in Georgia, and in this volatileperiodfurthermilitaryactioncannotberuledout.However, just as Russia’s actions in its warwith Georgia in 2008were awarning to

NATOtocomenocloser,soNATO’smessagetoRussiainthesummerof2014was,‘Thisfarwest and no further.’ A handful of NATO war planes were flown to the Baltic States,military exercises were announced in Poland and the Americans began planning to‘preposition’ extrahardware as close toRussia as possible.At the same time therewas aflurryofdiplomaticvisitsbyDefenceandForeignMinisterstotheBalticStates,GeorgiaandMoldovatoreassurethemofsupport.Some commentators poured scorn on the reaction, arguing that six RAF Eurofighter

TyphoonjetsflyingoverBalticairspacewerehardlygoingtodetertheRussianhordes.Butthereactionwasaboutdiplomaticsignalling,andthesignalwasclear–NATOispreparedto fight. Indeed itwould have to, because if it failed to react to an attack on amemberstate, itwould instantly be obsolete. TheAmericans –who are already edging towards anew foreign policy in which they feel less constrained by existing structures and arepreparedtoforgenewonesastheyperceivetheneedarises–aredeeplyunimpressedwiththeEuropeancountries’commitmenttodefencespending.InthecaseofthethreeBalticStates,NATO’spositionisclear.Astheyareallmembersof

the alliance, armed aggression against any of them by Russia would trigger Article 5 ofNATO’s founding charter, which states: ‘An armed attack against one or more [NATOmemberstates]inEuropeorNorthAmericashallbeconsideredanattackagainstthemall’,andgoesontosayNATOwillcometotherescueifnecessary.Article5wasinvokedafterthe terrorist attacks in the USA on 11 September 2001, paving the way for NATO

involvementinAfghanistan.President Putin is a student of history. He appears to have learnt the lessons of the

Soviet years, in which Russia overstretched itself and was forced to contract. An overtassault on theBaltic Stateswould likewisebeoverstretching and is unlikely, especially ifNATOanditspoliticalmastersensurethatPutinunderstandstheirsignals.RussiadoesnothavetosendanarmoureddivisionintoLatvia,LithuaniaorEstoniato

influence events there, but if it everdoes itwould justify the actionby claiming that thelarge Russian communities there are being discriminated against. In both Estonia andLatviaapproximatelyone in fourpeopleareethnicallyRussianand inLithuania it is5.8percent.InEstoniatheRussianspeakerssaytheyareunder-representedingovernmentandthousandsdonothaveanyformofcitizenship.ThisdoesnotmeantheywanttobepartofRussia,buttheyareoneoftheleversRussiacanpulltoinfluenceevents.TheRussian-speakingpopulationsintheBalticscanbestirreduptomakinglifedifficult.

Thereareexisting,fullyformedpoliticalpartiesalreadyrepresentingmanyofthem.Russiaalso controls the central heating in the homes of the Baltic people. It can set the pricepeoplepayfortheirheatingbillseachmonth,and,ifitchooses,simplyturntheheatingoff.RussiawillcontinuetopushitsinterestsintheBalticStates.Theyareoneoftheweak

links in itsdefencesince thecollapseof theUSSR,anotherbreach in thewall theywouldprefer to see forminganarc fromtheBalticSea, south, thensouth-eastconnecting to theUrals.This brings us to another gap in the wall and another region Moscow views as a

potentialbufferstate.FirmlyintheKremlin’ssightsisMoldova.Moldovapresentsadifferentproblemforallsides.AnattackonthecountrybyRussia

wouldnecessitatecrossingthroughUkraine,overtheDnieperRiverandthenoveranothersovereignborderintoMoldova.Itcouldbedone–atthecostofsignificantlossoflifeandbyusingOdessaasastagingpost–buttherewouldnodeniability.Althoughitmightnottrigger war with NATO (Moldova is not a member), it would provoke sanctions againstMoscowatalevelhithertounseen,andconfirmwhatthiswriterbelievestoalreadybethecase– that thecoolingrelationshipbetweenRussiaandtheWest isalreadytheNewColdWar.Why would the Russians wantMoldova? Because as the CarpathianMountains curve

round south-west to become the Transylvanian Alps, to the south-east is a plain leadingdowntotheBlackSea.ThatplaincanalsobethoughtofasaflatcorridorintoRussia;and,justastheRussianswouldprefertocontroltheNorthEuropeanPlainatitsnarrowpointinPoland,sotheywouldliketocontroltheplainbytheBlackSea–alsoknownasMoldova–intheregionformerlyknownasBessarabia.

AnumberofcountriesthatwereoncemembersoftheSovietUnionaspiretoclosertieswithEurope,butwithcertainregions,suchasTransnistriainMoldova,remainingheavilypro-Russian,thereispotentialforfutureconflict.

AftertheCrimeanWar(foughtbetweenRussiaandWesternEuropeanalliestoprotectOttoman Turkey from Russia), the 1856 Treaty of Paris returned parts of Bessarabia toMoldova,thuscuttingRussiaofffromtheRiverDanube.IttookRussiaalmostacenturytoregain access to it, but with the collapse of the USSR, once more Russia had to retreateastward.However, in effect theRussians do already control part ofMoldova – a region called

Transnistria,partofMoldovaeastof theDniesterRiverwhichbordersUkraine.Stalin, inhis wisdom, settled large numbers of Russians there, just as he had in Crimea afterdeportingmuchoftheTatarpopulation.Modern Transnistria is now at least 50 per cent Russian- or Ukrainian-speaking, and

thatpartofthepopulationispro-Russian.WhenMoldovabecameindependentin1991theRussian-speaking population rebelled and, after a brief period of fighting, declared abreakawayRepublicofTransnistria.IthelpedthatRussiahadsoldiersstationedthere,anditretainsaforceof2,000troopstothisday.ARussianmilitaryadvanceinMoldovaisunlikely,buttheKremlincananddoesuseits

economic muscle and the volatile situation in Transnistria to try and influence theMoldovangovernmentnottojointheEUorNATO.Moldova is reliant on Russia for its energy needs, its crops go eastward and Russian

imports of the excellentMoldovanwine tend to rise or fall according to the state of therelationshipbetweenthetwocountries.AcrosstheBlackSeafromMoldovaliesanotherwine-producingnation:Georgia.Itisnot

highonRussia’slistofplacestocontrolfortworeasons.FirstlytheGeorgia–Russianwarof2008leftlargepartsofthecountryoccupiedbyRussiantroops,whonowfullycontroltheregions ofAbkhazia and SouthOssetia. Secondly, it lies south of theCaucasusMountainsand Russia also has troops stationed in neighbouring Armenia.Moscowwould prefer anextra layer to their buffer zone, but can live without taking the rest of Georgia. Thatsituation could potentially change if Georgia looked close to becoming aNATOmember.ThisispreciselywhyithassofarbeenrebuffedbytheNATOgovernments,whicharekeentoavoidtheinevitableconflictwithRussia.AmajorityofthepopulationinGeorgiawouldlikeclosertieswiththeEUcountries,but

the shock of the 2008war, when then PresidentMikheil Saakashvili naively thought theAmericans might ride to his rescue after he provoked the Russians, has caused many toconsider that hedging their bets may be safer. In 2013 they elected a government andpresident,GiorgiMargvelashvili, farmore conciliatory toMoscow.As inUkraine, peopleinstinctivelyknowthetruismeveryoneintheneighbourhoodrecognises:thatWashingtonisfaraway,andMoscowisnear.Russia’smostpowerfulweaponsnow, leaving toonesidenuclearmissiles,arenot the

Russianarmyandairforce,butgasandoil.RussiaissecondonlytotheUSAastheworld’sbiggestsupplierofnaturalgas,andofcourseitusesthispowertoitsadvantage.ThebetteryourrelationswithRussia,thelessyoupayforenergy;forexample,FinlandgetsabetterdealthantheBalticStates.Thispolicyhasbeenusedsoaggressively,andRussiahassuchaholdoverEurope’senergyneeds,thatmovesareafoottobluntitsimpact.ManycountriesinEuropeareattemptingtoweanthemselvesofftheirdependencyonRussianenergy,notviaalternativepipelinesfromlessaggressivecountriesbutbybuildingports.Onaverage,morethan25percentofEurope’sgasandoilcomesfromRussia;butoften

the closer a country is toMoscow, the greater its dependency. This in turn reduces thatcountry’s foreign policy options. Latvia, Slovakia, Finland and Estonia are 100 per centreliant on Russian gas, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Lithuania are 80 per centdependent, and Greece, Austria and Hungary 60 per cent. About half of Germany’s gasconsumption comes from Russia which, along with extensive trade deals, is partly whyGermanpoliticianstendtobeslowertocriticisetheKremlinforaggressivebehaviourthanacountrysuchasBritain,whichnotonlyhas13percentdependency,butalsohasitsowngas-producingindustry,includingreservesofuptoninemonths’supply.ThereareseveralmajorpipelineroutesrunningeasttowestoutofRussia,someforoil

andsomeforgas.Itisthegaslineswhicharethemostimportant.In the north, via the Baltic Sea, is the Nord Stream route, which connects directly to

Germany.Below that, cutting throughBelarus, is theYamalpipeline,which feedsPolandandGermany.InthesouthistheBlueStream,takinggastoTurkeyviatheBlackSea.Untilearly2015therewasaplannedprojectcalledSouthStream,whichwasduetousethesameroute but branch off to Hungary, Austria, Serbia, Bulgaria and Italy. South Stream wasRussia’s attempt to ensure that even during disputes with Ukraine it would still have amajorroutetolargemarketsinWesternEuropeandtheBalkans.SeveralEUcountriesputpressureontheirneighbourstorejecttheplan,andBulgariaeffectivelypulledtheplugonthe project by saying the pipelines would not come across its territory. President PutinreactedbyreachingouttoTurkeywithanewproposal,sometimesknownasTurkStream.Russia’s South Stream and Turk Stream projects to circumvent Ukraine followed the

pricedisputesbetweenthetwostatesof2005–10,whichatvarioustimescutthegassupplyto eighteen countries. European nations which stood to benefit from South Stream weremarkedlymorerestrainedintheircriticismofRussiaduringtheCrimeacrisisof2014.Enter the Americans, with a win-win strategy for the USA and Europe. Noting that

Europewantsgas,andnotwanting tobe seen tobeweak in the faceofRussian foreignpolicy, the Americans believe they have the answer. The massive boom in shale gasproductionintheUSAisnotonlyenablingittobeself-sufficientinenergy,butalsotosellitssurplustooneofthegreatenergyconsumers–Europe.Todo this, the gas needs to be liquefied and shipped across theAtlantic. This in turn

requires liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and ports to be built along the Europeancoastlinestoreceivethecargoandturnitbackintogas.Washingtonisalreadyapprovinglicencesforexportfacilities,andEuropeisbeginningalong-termprojecttobuildmoreLNGterminals.PolandandLithuaniaareconstructingLNGterminals;othercountriessuchastheCzechRepublicwanttobuildpipelinesconnectingtothoseterminals,knowingtheycouldthenbenefitnotjustfromAmericanliquefiedgas,butalsosuppliesfromNorthAfricaandtheMiddleEast.TheKremlinwouldnolongerbeabletoturnthetapsoff.The Russians, seeing the long-term danger, point out that piped gas is cheaper than

LNG,andPresidentPutin,witha ‘whatdid I everdowrong’ expressiononhis face, saysthatEuropealreadyhasareliableandcheapersourceofgascomingfromhiscountry.LNGis unlikely to completely replace Russian gas, but it will strengthen what is a weakEuropean hand in both price negotiation and foreign policy. To prepare for a potentialreductioninrevenueRussiaisplanningpipelinesheadingsouth-eastandhopestoincreasesalestoChina.Thisisaneconomicbattlebasedongeographyandoneofthemodernexampleswhere

technologyisbeingutilisedinanattempttobeatthegeographicrestraintsofearliereras.AwayfromtheheartlandRussiadoeshaveaglobalpoliticalreachandusesitsinfluence,

notablyinLatinAmerica,whereitbuddiesuptowhicheverSouthAmericancountryhastheleast friendlyrelationshipwith theUnitedStates, forexampleVenezuela. It tries tocheckAmericanmovesintheMiddleEast,oratleastensureithasasayinmatters,itisspendingmassivelyonitsArcticmilitaryforces,anditconsistentlytakesaninterestinGreenlandtomaintainitsterritorialclaims.SincethefallofCommunismithasfocusedlessonAfrica,butmaintainswhatinfluenceitcantherealbeitinalosingbattlewithChina.At home it is facing many challenges, not least of which is demographic. The sharp

decline in population growth may have been arrested, but it remains a problem. TheaveragelifespanforaRussianmanisbelowsixty-five,rankingRussiainthebottomhalfoftheworld’s193UNmemberstates,andtherearenowonly144millionRussians(excludingCrimea).FromtheGrandPrincipalityofMuscovy,throughPetertheGreat,StalinandnowPutin,

each Russian leader has been confronted by the same problems. It doesn’t matter if theideologyofthoseincontrolistsarist,Communistorcronycapitalist–theportsstillfreeze,andtheNorthEuropeanPlainisstillflat.Stripoutthelinesofnationstates,andthemapIvantheTerribleconfrontedisthesame

oneVladimirPutinisfacedwithtothisday.

CHAPTER2

CHINA

‘Chinaisacivilisationpretendingtobeanation.’LucianPye,politicalscientist

IN OCTOBER 2006, A US NAVAL SUPERCARRIER GROUP LED BY THE 1,000-foot USS Kitty Hawk wasconfidently sailing through the East China Sea between southern Japan and Taiwan,

mindingeveryone’sbusiness,when,withoutwarning,aChinesenavysubmarinesurfacedinthemiddleofthegroup.AnAmericanaircraftcarrierofthatsizeissurroundedbyabouttwelveotherwarships,

withair coveraboveand submarine coverbelow.TheChinesevessel, aSong-class attacksubmarine,maywellbeveryquietwhenrunningonelectricpowerbut,still, thiswastheequivalent to Pepsi-Cola’s management popping up in a Coca-Cola board meeting afterlisteningunderthetableforhalfanhour.TheAmericanswereamazedandangryinequalmeasure.Amazedbecausetheyhadno

ideaaChinesesubcoulddothatwithoutbeingnoticed,angrybecausetheyhadn’tnoticedand because they regarded the move as provocative, especially as the sub was withintorpedorangeoftheKittyHawk itself.Theyprotested,perhapstoomuch,andtheChinesesaid:‘Oh!Whatacoincidence,ussurfacinginthemiddleofyourbattlegroupwhichisoffourcoast,wehadnoidea.’This was twenty-first-century reverse gunboat diplomacy; whereas the British used to

heaveaman-of-waroff thecoastofsomeminorpowertosignal intent, theChinesehoveintoviewofftheirowncoastwithaclearmessage:‘Wearenowamaritimepower,thisisourtime,andthisisoursea.’Ithastaken4,000years,buttheChinesearecomingtoaport–andashippinglane–nearyou.Until now China has never been a naval power – with its large landmass, multiple

borders and short sea routes to tradingpartners, it hadnoneed to be, and itwas rarelyideologically expansive. Itsmerchants have long sailed the oceans to trade goods, but itsnavydidnotseekterritorybeyonditsregion,andthedifficultyofpatrollingthegreatsealanesofthePacific,AtlanticandIndianOceanswasnotworththeeffort.Itwasalwaysalandpower,withalotoflandandalotofpeople–nownearly1.4billion.The concept of China as an inhabited entity began almost 4,000 years ago. The

birthplaceofChinesecivilisationis theregionknownastheNorthChinaPlain,whichtheChinese refer to as the Central Plain. A large, low-lying tract of nearly 160,000 squaremiles, it is situatedbelowInnerMongolia, southofManchuria, inandaround theYellowRiverBasinanddownpasttheYangtzeRiver,whichbothruneasttowest.Itisnowoneofthemostdenselypopulatedareasintheworld.TheYellowRiverbasin is subject to frequentanddevastating floods,earning theriver

theunenviablesobriquetof‘ScourgeoftheSonsofHan’.Theindustrialisationoftheregionbeganinearnestinthe1950sandhasbeenrapidlyacceleratinginthelastthreedecades.

The terriblypolluted river is now so cloggedwith toxicwaste that it sometimes struggleseventoreachthesea.NeverthelesstheYellowRiveristoChinawhattheNileistoEgypt–the cradle of its civilisation, where its people learnt to farm, to make paper andgunpowder.Tothenorthofthisproto-ChinaweretheharshlandsoftheGobiDesertinwhatisnow

Mongolia. To the west the land gradually rises until it becomes the Tibetan Plateau,reachingtotheHimalayas.Tothesouth-eastandsouthliesthesea.Theheartland,astheNorthChinaPlainisknown,wasandisalarge,fertileplainwith

twomainriversandaclimatethatallowsriceandsoybeanstobeharvestedtwiceaseason(double-cropping), which encouraged rapid population growth. By 1500 BCE in thisheartland,outofhundredsofminicity-states,manywarringwitheachother,emergedtheearliestversionofaChinesestate–theShangdynasty.Thisiswherewhatbecameknownas theHan people emerged, protecting the heartland and creating a buffer zone aroundthem.The Han now make up over 90 per cent of China’s population and they dominate

Chinesepolitics andbusiness. They aredifferentiatedbyMandarin,Cantonese andmanyotherregionallanguages,butunitedbyethnicityandatapoliticallevelbythegeopoliticalimpulsiontoprotecttheheartland.Mandarin,whichoriginatedinthenorthernpartoftheregion, isbyfar thedominant languageandis themediumofgovernment,nationalstatetelevisionandeducation.MandarinissimilartoCantoneseandmanyotherlanguageswhenwritten,butverydifferentwhenspoken.The heartland is the political, cultural, demographic and – crucially – the agricultural

centreofgravity.AboutabillionpeopleliveinthispartofChina,despiteitbeingjusthalfthesizeoftheUnitedStates,whichhasapopulationof322million.Becausetheterrainofthe heartland lent itself to settlement and an agrarian lifestyle, the early dynasties feltthreatened by the non-Han regions which surrounded them, especiallyMongolia with itsnomadicbandsofviolentwarriors.China chose the same strategy as Russia: attack as defence, leading to power. Aswe

shall see, therewere natural barrierswhich – if theHan could reach them and establishcontrol–wouldprotectthem.Itwasastruggleovermillennia,onlyfullyrealisedwiththeannexationofTibetin1951.By the time of the famous Chinese philosopher Confucius (551–479 BCE) there was a

strong feeling of Chinese identity and of a divide between civilised China and the‘barbarous’regionswhichsurroundedit.Thiswasasenseofidentitysharedbysixtymillionorsopeople.By200BCEChinahadexpandedtowards,butnotreached,Tibetinthesouth-west,north

tothegrasslandsofCentralAsiaandsouthall thewaydowntotheSouthChinaSea.TheGreatWall(knownastheLongWallinChina)hadbeenfirstbuiltbytheQindynasty(221–207BCE), andon themapChinawasbeginning to takeonwhatwenowrecogniseas itsmodern form. It would be more than 2,000 years before today’s borders were fixed,however.Between605and609CEtheGrandCanal,centuriesinthemakingandtodaytheworld’s

longest man-made waterway, was extended and finally linked the Yellow River to theYangtze.TheSuidynasty(581–618CE)hadharnessedthevastnumbersofworkersunderitscontrol and used them to connect existing natural tributaries into a navigablewaterwaybetweenthetwogreatrivers.ThistiedthenorthernandsouthernHantoeachothermoreclosely than everbefore. It took severalmillion slaves fiveyears todo thework, but theancient problem of how to move supplies south to north had been solved – but not theproblemwhichexiststothisday,thatofflooding.TheHanstillwarredwitheachother,butincreasinglylessso,andbytheearlyeleventh

centuryCEtheywereforcedtoconcentratetheirattentiononthewavesofMongolspouringdownfromthenorth.TheMongolsdefeatedwhicheverdynasty,northorsouth,theycameupagainstandby1279theirleaderKublaiKhanbecamethefirstforeignertoruleallofthecountryasEmperoroftheMongol(Yuan)dynasty.ItwouldbealmostninetyyearsbeforetheHantookchargeoftheirownaffairswiththeestablishmentoftheMingdynasty.By now there was increasing contact with traders and emissaries from the emerging

nationstatesofEurope,suchasSpainandPortugal.TheChineseleaderswereagainstanysort of permanent European presence, but increasingly opened up the coastal regions totrade. It remainsa featureofChina to thisday thatwhenChinaopensup, thecoastlandregionsprosperbuttheinlandareasareneglected.Theprosperityengenderedbytradehasmade coastal cities such as Shanghaiwealthy, but thatwealth has not been reaching thecountryside. This has added to the massive influx of people into urban areas andaccentuatedregionaldifferences.IntheeighteenthcenturyChinareachedintopartsofBurmaandIndochinatothesouth,

andXinjianginthenorth-westwasconquered,becomingthecountry’sbiggestprovince.Anareaof ruggedmountainsandvastdesertbasins,Xinjiang is642,820 squaremiles, twicethe size of Texas – or, to put it another way, you could fit the UK, France, Germany,Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Belgium into it and still have room forLuxembourg.AndLiechtenstein.But,inaddingtoitssize,Chinaalsoaddedtoitsproblems.Xinjiang,aregionpopulated

by Muslims, was a perennial source of instability, indeed insurrection, as were other

regions;butfortheHanthebufferwasworththetrouble,evenmoresoafterthefatewhichbefell the country in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries with the coming of theEuropeans.The imperial powers arrived, theBritish among them, and carved the countryup into

spheresofinfluence.Itwas,andis,thegreatesthumiliationtheChinesesufferedsincetheMongolinvasions.ThisisanarrativetheCommunistPartyusesfrequently;itisinparttrue,butitisalsousefultocoveruptheParty’sownfailuresandrepressivepolicies.LatertheJapanese–expandingtheirterritoryasanemergingworldpower–invaded,

attacking first in 1932 and then again in 1937, after which they occupied most of theheartlandaswellasManchuriaandInnerMongolia.Japan’sunconditionalsurrendertotheAmericansattheendoftheSecondWorldWarin1945ledtothewithdrawalofJapanesetroops, although inManchuria they were replaced by the advancing Soviet army, whichthenwithdrewin1946.A few outside observers thought the post-war years might bring liberal democracy to

China. It was wishful thinking akin to the naive nonsense Westerners wrote during theearly days of the recent ‘Arab Spring’, which, as with China, was based on a lack ofunderstandingoftheinternaldynamicsofthepeople,politicsandgeographyoftheregion.Instead, nationalist forces under Chiang Kai-shek and Communist armies under

ChairmanMaobattledforsupremacyuntil1949,whentheCommunistsemergedvictoriousand theNationalistswithdrew toTaiwan. That same yearRadioBeijing announced: ‘ThePeople’s Liberation Army must liberate all Chinese territories, including Tibet, Xinjiang,HainanandTaiwan.’Mao centralised power to an extent never seen in previous dynasties. He blocked

Russian influence in Inner Mongolia and extended Beijing’s influence into Mongolia. In1951ChinacompleteditsannexationofTibet(anothervastnon-Hanterritory),andbythenChinese school textbookmapswerebeginning todepictChinaas stretchingeven into theCentralAsianrepublics.Thecountryhadbeenputbacktogether;MaowouldspendtherestofhislifeensuringitstayedthatwayandconsolidatingCommunistPartycontrolineveryfacet of life, but turning away from much of the outside world. The country remaineddesperatelypoor,especiallyawayfromthecoastalareas,butunified.Mao’ssuccessorstriedtoturnhisLongMarchtovictoryintoaneconomicmarchtowards

prosperity.Intheearly1980stheChineseleaderDengXiaopingcoinedtheterm‘Socialismwith Chinese Characteristics’, which appears to translate as ‘Total control for theCommunistPartyinaCapitalistEconomy’.Chinawasbecomingamajortradingpoweranda rising military giant. By the end of the 1990s it had recovered from the shock of theTiananmenSquaremassacreof1989,regainedHongKongandMacaufromtheBritishand

Portuguese respectively, and could look around its borders, assess its security and planaheadforitsgreatmoveoutintotheworld.If we look at China’s modern borders we see a great power now confident that it is

securedbyitsgeographicalfeatures,whichlendthemselvestoeffectivedefenceandtrade.InChinathepointsofthecompassarealwayslistedintheordereast–south–west–north,butlet’sstartinthenorthandmoveclockwise.Inthenorthweseethe2,906-mile-longborderwithMongolia.Straddlingthisborderis

theGobiDesert.Nomadicwarriorsfromancienttimesmighthavebeenabletoattacksouthacrossit,butamodernarmywouldbespottedmassingthereweeksbeforeitwasreadytoadvance,anditwouldhaveincrediblylongsupplylinesrunningacrossinhospitableterrainbeforeitgotintoInnerMongolia(partofChina)andtowardstheheartland.Therearefewroads fit tomove heavy armour, and few habitable areas. The Gobi Desert is amassiveearlywarningsystem-cumdefensive line.AnyChineseexpansionnorthwardwillcomenotvia themilitary,but from tradedeals asChinaattempts tohooverupMongolia’snaturalresources, primarilyminerals. Thiswill bringwith it increasedmigrationof theHan intoMongolia.Next door, to the east, is China’s border with Russia, which runs all the way to the

PacificOcean–oratleasttheSeaofJapansubdivisionofit.AbovethisisthemountainousRussian Far East, a huge, inhospitable territory with a tiny population. Below it isManchuria, which the Russians would have to push through if they wanted to reach theChineseheartland.ThepopulationofManchuria is 100million andgrowing; in contrast,theRussianFarEasthasfewerthansevenmillionpeopleandnoindicationsofpopulationgrowth.Large-scalemigrationsouthtonorthcanbeexpected,whichwillinturngiveChinamore leverage in its relationswith Russia. From amilitary perspective the best place tocrosswouldbeneartheRussianPacificportofVladivostok,buttherearefewreasons,andnocurrentintentions,tosodo.Indeed,therecentWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaduetothecrisis inUkrainehavedrivenRussiaintomassiveeconomicdealswithChinaontermswhich help keep Russia afloat, but are favourable to the Chinese. Russia is the juniorpartnerinthisrelationship.BelowtheRussianFarEast,alongthecoast,areChina’sYellow,EastChinaandSouth

ChinaseaswhichleadtothePacificandIndianOceans,havemanygoodharboursandhavealways been used for trade. But across thewaves lie several island-sized problems – oneshapedlikeJapan,whichweshallcometoshortly.Continuing clockwise, we come to the next land borders: Vietnam, Laos and Burma.

VietnamisanirritationforChina.Forcenturiesthetwohavesquabbledoverterritory,andunfortunatelyforboththisistheoneareatothesouthwhichhasaborderanarmycanget

acrosswithouttoomuchtrouble–whichpartiallyexplainsthe1,000-yeardominationandoccupationofVietnambyChinafrom111BCEto938CEandtheirbriefcross-borderwarof1979. However, as China’s military prowess grows, Vietnam will be less inclined to getdrawn into a shooting match and will either cosy up even closer to the Americans forprotectionorquietlybeginshiftingdiplomaticallytobecomefriendswithBeijing.Thatbothcountries are nominally ideologically Communist has little to do with the state of theirrelationship: it is their sharedgeography thathasdefined relations.Viewed fromBeijing,Vietnamisonlyaminorthreatandaproblemthatcanbemanaged.TheborderwithLaosishillyjungleterrain,difficultfortraderstocross–andevenmore

complicated for the military. As they move clockwise to Burma, the jungle hills becomemountainsuntilatthewesternextremetheyareapproaching20,000feetandbeginningtomergeintotheHimalayas.ThisbringsustoTibetanditsimportancetoChina.TheHimalayasrunthelengthofthe

Chinese–Indian border before descending to become the Karakorum Range borderingPakistan,AfghanistanandTajikistan.Thisisnature’sversionofaGreatWallofChina,or–lookingatitfromNewDelhi’sside–theGreatWallofIndia.Itcutsthetwomostpopulouscountriesontheplanetofffromeachotherbothmilitarilyandeconomically.Theyhavetheirdisputes:ChinaclaimstheIndianprovinceofArunachalPradesh,India

saysChina isoccupyingAksaiChin;butdespitepointingtheirartilleryateachotherhighuponthisnaturalwall,bothsideshavebetterthingstodothanreignitetheshootingmatchwhich broke out in 1962, when a series of violent border disputes culminated in viciouslarge-scalemountainfighting.Nevertheless,thetensionisever-presentandeachsideneedstohandlethesituationwithcare.Very little trade has moved between China and India over the centuries, and that is

unlikelytochangesoon.OfcoursetheborderisreallytheTibetan–Indianborder–andthatispreciselywhyChinahasalwayswantedtocontrolit.Thisisthegeopoliticsoffear.IfChinadidnotcontrolTibet,itwouldalwaysbepossible

that Indiamight attempt to do so. Thiswould give India the commanding heights of theTibetan Plateau and a base from which to push into the Chinese heartland, as well ascontrol of the Tibetan sources of three of China’s great rivers, the Yellow, Yangtze andMekong, which is why Tibet is known as ‘China’s Water Tower’. China, a country withapproximatelythesamevolumeofwaterusageastheUSA,butwithapopulationfivetimesaslarge,willclearlynotallowthat.Itmatters notwhether Indiawants to cut off China’s river supply, only that itwould

havethepowertodoso.ForcenturiesChinahastriedtoensurethatitcouldneverhappen.TheactorRichardGereandtheFreeTibetmovementwillcontinuetospeakoutagainstthe

injusticesof theoccupation,andnowsettlement,ofTibetbyHanChinese;but inabattlebetween the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan independencemovement, Hollywood stars and theChineseCommunistParty–whichrulestheworld’ssecond-largesteconomy–thereisonlygoingtobeonewinner.WhenWesterners,betheyMrGereorMrObama,talkaboutTibet, theChinesefindit

deeplyirritating.Notdangerous,notsubversive–justirritating.Theyseeitnotthroughtheprism of human rights, but that of geopolitical security, and can only believe that theWesternersaretryingtounderminetheirsecurity.However,Chinesesecurityhasnotbeenundermined and it will not be, even if there are further uprisings against the Han.DemographicsandgeopoliticsopposeTibetanindependence.TheChinesearebuilding‘factsontheground’onthe‘roofoftheworld’.Inthe1950sthe

Chinese Communist People’s Army began building roads into Tibet, and since then theyhave helped to bring themodernworld to the ancient kingdom; but the roads, and nowrailways,alsobringtheHan.It was long said to be impossible to build a railway through the permafrost, the

mountainsandthevalleysofTibet.Europe’sbestengineers,whohadcutthroughtheAlps,saiditcouldnotbedone.Aslateas1988thetravelwriterPaulTherouxwroteinhisbookRidingtheIronRooster:‘TheKunlunRangeisaguaranteethattherailwaywillnevergettoLhasa.’TheKunlunseparatedXinjiangprovincefromTibet,forwhichTherouxgavethanks:‘That is probably a good thing. I thought I liked railways until I saw Tibet, and then IrealisedthatIlikedwildernessmuchmore.’ButtheChinesebuiltit.Perhapsonlytheycouldhave done. The line into the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, was opened in 2006 by the thenChinesePresidentHuJintao.Nowpassengerandgoods trainsarrive fromas farawayasShanghaiandBeijing,fourtimesaday,everyday.They bring with them many things, such as consumer goods from across China,

computers,colourtelevisionsandmobilephones.Theybringtouristswhosupportthelocaleconomy,theybringmodernitytoanancientandimpoverishedland,ahugeimprovementinlivingstandardsandhealthcare,andtheybringthepotentialtocarryTibetangoodsouttothewiderworld.ButtheyhavealsobroughtseveralmillionHanChinesesettlers.Thetruefiguresarehardtocomeby:theFreeTibetmovementclaimsthatinthewider

culturalTibetanregionTibetansarenowaminority,buttheChinesegovernmentsaysthatin theofficialTibetanAutonomousRegionmore than 90 per cent of people are Tibetan.Bothsidesareexaggerating,buttheevidencesuggeststhegovernmentistheonewiththegreater degree of exaggeration. Its figures do not include Han migrants who are notregistered as residents, but the casual observer can see that Han neighbourhoods nowdominatetheTibetanurbanareas.

Once,themajorityofthepopulationofManchuria,InnerMongoliaandXinjiangwereethnicallyManchurian,MongolianandUighur;nowallthreearemajorityHanChinese,orapproachingthemajority.SoitwillbewithTibet.ThismeansthatresentmentoftheHanwillcontinuetomanifestitselfinriotingsuchas

that of 2008, when anti-Chinese Tibetan protestors in Lhasa burnt and looted Hanproperties,twenty-onepeoplediedandhundredswereinjured.Theauthorities’crackdownwillcontinue,theFreeTibetmovementwillcontinue,monkswillcontinuetosetthemselvesonfiretobringtheplightoftheTibetanstotheworld’sattention–andtheHanwillkeepcoming.China’smassivepopulation,mostlycrammedintotheheartland,islookingforwaysto

expand.Justas theAmericans lookedwest, sodo theChinese,and justas the IronHorsebroughttheEuropeansettlerstothelandsoftheComancheandtheNavajo,sothemodernIronRoostersarebringingtheHantotheTibetans.Finally the clock hand moves round past the borders with Pakistan, Tajikistan and

Kyrgyzstan(allmountainous)beforereachingtheborderwithKazakhstan,whichleadsbackround north to Mongolia. This is the ancient Silk Route, the trade land bridge from theMiddle Kingdom to the world. Theoretically it’s a weak spot in China’s defence, a gapbetweenthemountainsanddesert;butit is farfromtheheartland,theKazakhsareinnopositiontothreatenChina,andRussiaisseveralhundredmilesdistant.South-east of this Kazakh border is the restive ‘semi-autonomous’ Chinese province of

Xinjiang and its nativeMuslim population of the Uighur people, who speak a languagerelated to Turkish. Xinjiang borders eight countries: Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Afghanistan,PakistanandIndia.Therewas,isandalwayswillbetroubleinXinjiang.TheUighurshavetwicedeclaredan

independentstateof‘EastTurkestan’,inthe1930sand1940s.Theywatchedthecollapseofthe Russian Empire result in their former Soviet neighbours in the ‘Stans’ becomingsovereignstates,wereinspiredbytheTibetanindependencemovement,andmanyarenowagaincallingtobreakawayfromChina.Inter-ethnic rioting erupted in 2009, leading to over 200 deaths. Beijing responded in

three ways: it ruthlessly suppressed dissent, it poured money into the region, and itcontinued to pour in Han Chinese workers. For China, Xinjiang is too strategicallyimportant toallowan independencemovement togetoff theground: itnotonlyborderseight countries, thus buffering the heartland, but it also has oil, and is home to China’snuclearweaponstestingsites.Most of the new towns and cities springing up across Xinjiang are overwhelmingly

populated by Han Chinese attracted by work in the new factories in which the central

government invests. A classic example is the city of Shihezi, 85 miles north-west of thecapital,Ürümqi.Of itspopulationof650,000, it is thought thatat least620,000areHan.Overall,Xinjiangisreckonedtobe40percentHan,ataconservativeestimate–andevenÜrümqiitselfmaynowbemajorityHan,althoughofficialfiguresaredifficulttoobtainandnotalwaysreliableduetotheirpoliticalsensitivity.There is a ‘World Uighur Congress’ based in Germany, and the ‘East Turkestan

Liberation Movement’ set up in Turkey; but Uighur separatists lack a Dalai Lama-typefigure uponwhom foreignmedia can fix, and their cause is almost unknown around theworld.Chinatriestokeepitthatway,ensuringitstaysongoodtermswithasmanybordercountries as possible in order to prevent any organised independence movement fromhavingsupplylinesorsomewheretowhichitcouldfallback.Beijingalsopaintsseparatistsas Islamist terrorists. Al Qaeda and other groups, which have a foothold in places likeTajikistan, are indeed attempting to forge links with the Uighur separatists, but themovementisnationalistfirst,Islamicsecond.However,gun,bombandknifeattacksintheregion against state and/or Han targets over the past few years do look as if they willcontinue,andcouldescalateintoafull-blownuprising.China will not cede this territory and, as in Tibet, the window for independence is

closing.Botharebufferzones,oneisamajorlandtraderoute,and–crucially–bothoffermarkets (albeit with a limited income) for an economywhichmust keep producing andsellinggoodsifitistocontinuetogrowandtopreventmassunemployment.Failuretosodowouldlikelyleadtowidespreadcivildisorder,threateningthecontroloftheCommunistPartyandtheunityofChina.TherearesimilarreasonsfortheParty’sresistancetodemocracyandindividualrights.If

thepopulationweretobegivenafreevote,theunityoftheHanmightbegintocrackor,morelikely,thecountrysideandurbanareaswouldcomeintoconflict.Thatinturnwouldemboldenthepeopleofthebufferzones,furtherweakeningChina.ItisonlyacenturysincethemostrecenthumiliationoftherapeofChinabyforeignpowers;forBeijing,unityandeconomicprogressareprioritieswellaheadofdemocraticprinciples.TheChinese lookat societyverydifferently fromtheWest.Western thought is infused

withtherightsoftheindividual;Chinesethoughtprizesthecollectiveabovetheindividual.WhattheWestthinksofastherightsofman,theChineseleadershipthinksofasdangeroustheories endangering themajority, andmuchof thepopulationaccepts that, at the least,theextendedfamilycomesbeforetheindividual.IoncetookaChineseAmbassadorinLondontoahigh-endFrenchrestaurantinthehope

they would repeat Prime Minister Zhou Enlai’s much-quoted answer to Richard Nixon’squestion‘WhatistheimpactoftheFrenchRevolution?’,towhichtheprimeministerreplied

‘It’s too soon to tell.’ Sadly thiswasnot forthcoming,but Iwas treated toa stern lectureabout how the full imposition of ‘what you call human rights’ in China would lead towidespreadviolenceanddeathandwasthenasked, ‘Whydoyouthinkyourvalueswouldworkinacultureyoudon’tunderstand?’The deal between the Party leaders and the people has been, for a generation now,

‘We’ll make you better off – you will follow our orders.’ So long as the economy keepsgrowing,thatgrandbargainmaylast.Ifitstops,orgoesintoreverse,thedealisoff.Thecurrentlevelofdemonstrationsandangeragainstcorruptionandinefficiencyaretestamenttowhatwouldhappenifthedealbreaks.AnothergrowingproblemfortheParty is itsabilitytofeedthepopulation.Morethan

40percentofarablelandisnoweitherpollutedorhasthinningtopsoil,accordingtotheirMinistryofAgriculture.Chinaiscaughtinacatch-22.Itneedstokeepindustrialisingasitmodernisesandraises

standardsofliving,butthatveryprocessthreatensfoodproduction.Ifitcannotsolvethisproblemtherewillbeunrest.Therearenowaround500mostlypeacefulprotestsadayacrossChinaoveravarietyof

issues.Ifyouintroducemassunemployment,ormasshunger,thattallywillexplodeinbothnumberandthedegreeofforceusedbybothsides.So,on theeconomic sideChinanowalsohasagrandbargainwith theworld– ‘We’ll

makethestuffforcheap–youbuyitforcheap.’Leave tooneside the fact thatalready labourcostsarerising inChinaand it isbeing

rivalled by Thailand and Indonesia, for price if not volume. What would happen if theresourcesrequiredtomakethestuffdriedup,ifsomeoneelsegotthemfirst,oriftherewasanavalblockadeofyourgoods–inandout?Well,forthat,you’dneedanavy.The Chinese were great sea voyagers, especially in the fifteenth century, when they

roamed the IndianOcean; Admiral ZhengHe’s expedition ventured as far as Kenya. Buttheseweremoney-makingexercises,notpowerprojections,andtheywerenotdesignedtocreateforwardbasesthatcouldbeusedtosupportmilitaryoperations.Havingspent4,000turbulentyearsconsolidatingitslandmass,Chinaisnowbuildinga

BlueWater navy. A GreenWater navy patrols its maritime borders, a BlueWater navypatrols the oceans. Itwill take another thirty years (assuming economic progression) forChinatobuildnavalcapacity toseriouslychallengethemostpowerfulseaborneforcetheworldhaseverseen–theUSnavy.Butinthemediumtoshortterm,asitbuilds,andtrains,and learns, the Chinese navywill bump up against its rivals in the seas; and how thosebumpsaremanaged–especiallytheSino–Americanones–willdefinegreatpowerpoliticsinthiscentury.

Theyoungseamennowtrainingonthesecond-handaircraftcarrierChinasalvagedfromaUkrainian rust yardwill be theoneswho, if theymake it to the rankof admiral,mayhavelearntenoughtoknowhowtotakeatwelve-shipcarriergroupacrosstheworldandback–andifnecessaryfightawaralongtheway.AssomeofthericherArabnationscametorealise,youcannotbuyanefficientmilitaryofftheshelf.GraduallytheChinesewillputmoreandmorevesselsintotheseasofftheircoast,and

intothePacific.EachtimeoneislaunchedtherewillbelessspacefortheAmericansintheChinaSeas.TheAmericansknowthis,andknowtheChineseareworkingtowardsaland-basedanti-shipmissilesystemtodoublethereasonswhytheUSnavy,oranyofitsallies,mightwantoneday to thinkhardabout sailing through theSouthChinaSea.Or indeed,any other ‘China’ sea. And all the while, the developing Chinese space project will bewatchingeverymovetheAmericansmake,andthoseofitsallies.So,havinggoneclockwisearoundthelandborders,wenowlookeast,southandsouth-

westtowardsthesea.Between China and the Pacific is the archipelago that Beijing calls the ‘First Island

Chain’.Thereisalsothe‘NineDashLine’,morerecentlyturnedintotendashesin2013toincludeTaiwan,whichChinasaysmarksitsterritory.Thisdisputeoverownershipofmorethan200tinyislandsandreefsispoisoningChina’srelationswithitsneighbours.NationalpridemeansChinawantstocontrolthepassagewaysthroughtheChain;geopoliticsdictatesithasto.Itprovidesaccesstotheworld’smostimportantshippinglanesintheSouthChinaSea.Inpeacetimetherouteisopeninvariousplaces,butinwartimetheycouldveryeasilybeblocked,thusblockadingChina.Allgreatnationsspendpeacetimepreparingforthedaywarbreaksout.

TheSouthChinaSeaisahotlycontestedareabetweenChinaanditsneighboursleadingtodisputesoverownershipofislands,naturalresourcesandcontroloftheseasandshippinglanes.

FreeaccesstothePacificisfirstlyhinderedbyJapan.ChinesevesselsemergingfromtheYellowSeaandroundingtheKoreanPeninsulawouldhavetogothroughtheSeaofJapanand up through La Perouse Strait above Hokkaido and into the Pacific. Much of this isJapanese orRussian territorialwaters and at a timeof great tension, or evenhostilities,would be inaccessible to China. Even if they made it they would still have to navigatethroughtheKurilIslandsnorth-eastofHokkaido,whicharecontrolledbyRussiabutclaimedbyJapan.Japan isalso indisputewithChinaover theuninhabited islandchain it callsSenkaku

andtheChineseknowasDiaoyu,north-eastofTaiwan.Thisisthemostcontentiousofallterritorial claims between the two countries. If instead Chinese ships pass through, orindeedsetofffrom,theEastChinaSeaoffShanghaiandgoinastraightlinetowardsthePacifictheymustpasstheRyukyuIslands,whichincludeOkinawa–uponwhichthereisnotonlyahugeAmericanmilitarybase,butasmanyshore-to-shipmissilesastheJapanesecanpileatthetipoftheisland.ThemessagefromTokyois:‘Weknowyou’regoingoutthere,butdon’tmesswithusonthewayout.’Another potential flare-up with Japan centres on the East China Sea’s gas deposits.

Beijing has declared an ‘Air Defence Identification Zone’ over most of the sea requiringpriornoticebeforeanyoneelsefliesthroughit.TheAmericansandJapanesearetryingto

ignore it,but itwillbecomeahot issueata timeof theirchoosingordue toanaccidentwhichismismanaged.BelowOkinawaisTaiwan,whichsitsofftheChinesecoastandseparatestheEastChina

Sea fromtheSouthChinaSea.ChinaclaimsTaiwanas its twenty-thirdprovince,but it iscurrentlyanAmericanallywithanavyandairforcearmedtotheteethbyWashington.ItcameunderChinesecontrolintheseventeenthcenturybuthasonlybeenruledbyChinaforfiveyearsinthelastcentury(from1945to1949).Taiwan’s official name is the Republic of China (ROC) to differentiate it from the

People’sRepublicofChina,althoughboth sidesbelieve they shouldhave jurisdictionoverboth territories.This isanameBeijingcan livewithas itdoesnot state thatTaiwan isaseparatestate.TheAmericansarecommittedtodefendingTaiwanintheeventofaChineseinvasion under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. However, if Taiwan declares fullindependencefromChina,whichChinawouldconsideranactofwar,theUSAisnotboundtocometoitsrescue,asthedeclarationwouldbeconsideredprovocative.The two governments vie for recognition for themselves and non-recognition of the

other ineverysinglecountryintheworld,andinmostcasesBeijingwins.Whenyoucanofferapotentialmarketof1.4billionpeopleasopposedto23million,mostcountriesdon’tneed longtoconsider.However, therearetwenty-twocountries(mostlydevelopingstatessuchasSwaziland,BurkinaFasoandtheislandofSãoToméandPríncipe)whichdooptforTaiwan,andwhichareusuallyhandsomelyrewarded.The Chinese are determined to have Taiwan but are nowhere near being able to

challengeforitmilitarily.Insteadtheyareusingsoftpowerbyincreasingtradeandtourismbetween the two states.Chinawants towooTaiwanback into its arms.During the2014student protests in Hong Kong, one of the reasons the authorities did not quickly batterthem off the streets – as they would have done in, for example, Ürümqi – was that theworld’s cameraswere thereandwouldhavecaptured theviolence. InChinamuchof thisfootagewouldbeblocked,butinTaiwanpeoplewouldseewhattherestoftheworldsawand ask themselves how close a relationship they wanted with such a power. Beijinghesitated;itisplayingthelonggame.Thesoft-powerapproachistopersuadethepeopleofTaiwantheyhavenothingtofear

in rejoining the ‘Motherland’. TheAirDefence IdentificationZone, the surfacing nearUSshipsandthebuild-upofanavyarepartofalong-termplantoweakenAmericanresolvetodefend an island140miles off the coast ofmainlandChina, but 6,400miles from thewestcoastoftheUSA.FromtheSouthChinaSeaChineseshipswouldstillhaveproblems,whethertheyheaded

towardsthePacificortheIndianOcean–whichistheworld’swaterwayforthegasandoil

withoutwhichChinawouldcollapse.To go westward towards the energy-producing states of the Gulf they must pass

Vietnam,which,aswehavenoted,has recentlybeenmakingovertures to theAmericans.Theymust go near the Philippines, a US ally, before trying to get through the Strait ofMalaccabetweenMalaysia,Singaporeand Indonesia,allofwhicharediplomaticallyandmilitarilylinkedtotheUSA.TheStraitisapproximately500mileslongandatitsnarrowestis less than twomileswide. It has always been a choke point – and the Chinese remainvulnerable tobeingchoked.Allof the statesalong theStraitandnear itsapproachesareanxiousaboutChinesedominance,andmosthaveterritorialdisputeswithBeijing.ChinaclaimsalmosttheentireSouthChinaSea,andtheenergysuppliesbelievedtobe

beneath it, as its own.However,Malaysia, Taiwan,Vietnam, the Philippines and BruneialsohaveterritorialclaimsagainstChinaandeachother.Forexample,thePhilippinesandChina argue bitterly over theMischief Islands, a large reef in the Spratly Islands in theSouthChinaSea,whichonedaycouldliveuptotheirname.Everyoneofthehundredsofdisputedatolls, and sometimes just rockspokingoutof thewater, couldbe turned intoadiplomatic crisis, as surrounding each rock is a potential dispute about fishing zones,explorationrightsandsovereignty.Chinamust secure these routes, both for its goods to get tomarket, and for the items

required to make those goods – oil, gas and precious metals among them – to get intoChina.Itcannotaffordtobeblockaded.Diplomacyisonesolution;theever-growingnavyisanother;butthebestguaranteesarepipelines,roadsandports.Diplomatically,Chinawillattempt topull theSouth-EastAsiannationsawayfromthe

USAusingbothcarrotandstick.Toomuchstick,andthecountrieswilltiethemselvesevercloser intodefence treatieswithWashington; toomuchcarrot, and theymaynotbend toBeijing’swill.AtthemomenttheystilllookacrossthePacificforprotection.ThemapsoftheregionthattheChinesenowprintshowalmostthewholeoftheSouth

ChinaSeaas theirs.This isastatementof intent,backedbyaggressivenavalpatrolsandofficialstatements.Beijingintendstochangeitsneighbours’waysofthinkingandtochangeAmerica’s way of thinking and behaving – pushing and pushing an agenda until itscompetitorsbackoff.Atstakehereistheconceptofinternationalwatersandfreepassageinpeacetime;itisnotsomethingwhichwilleasilybegivenupbytheotherpowers.ThegeopoliticalwriterRobertKaplanexpoundsthetheorythattheSouthChinaSeaisto

theChineseinthetwenty-firstcenturywhattheCaribbeanwastotheUSAatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury.TheAmericans,havingconsolidatedtheirlandmass,hadbecomeatwo-oceanpower(AtlanticandPacific),andthenmovedtocontrol theseasaroundthem,pushingtheSpanishoutofCuba.

Chinaalso intends tobecomea two-oceanpower (Pacificand Indian).Toachieve thisChinaisinvestingindeep-waterportsinBurma,Bangladesh,PakistanandSriLanka–aninvestmentwhichbuys itgoodrelations, thepotential for its futurenavytohavefriendlybasestovisitorresidein,andtradelinksbackhome.The IndianOcean andBay of Bengal ports are part of an evenbigger plan to secure

China’s future. FromBurma’swest coastlineChinahasbuilt natural gas andoil pipelineslinkingtheBayofBengalup intosouth-westChina–China’swayofreducing itsnervousrelianceontheStraitofMalacca,throughwhichalmost80percentof itsenergysuppliespass.Thispartiallyexplainswhy,whentheBurmeseJuntabegantoslowlyopenuptotheoutside world in 2010, it wasn’t just the Chinese who beat a path to their door. TheAmericans and Japanese were quick to establish better relations, with both PresidentObamaandPrimeMinisterAbeofJapangoingtopaytheirrespectsinperson.IftheycaninfluenceBurma,theycanhelpcheckChina.Sofar,theChinesearewinningthisparticulargameontheglobalchessboard,buttheAmericansmaybeabletooutmusclethemaslongastheBurmesegovernmentisconfidentWashingtonwillstandbyit.The Chinese are also building ports in Kenya, railway lines in Angola, and a

hydroelectric dam in Ethiopia. They are scouring the length and breadth of thewhole ofAfricaformineralsandpreciousmetals.Chinesecompaniesandworkersarespreadoutacrosstheworld;slowlyChina’smilitary

willfollow.Withgreatpowercomesgreatresponsibility.ChinawillnotleavethesealanesinitsneighbourhoodtobepolicedbytheAmericans.TherewillbeeventswhichrequiretheChinese to act out of region. A natural disaster or a terrorist/hostage incident involvinglarge numbers of Chinese workers would require China to take action, and that entailsforward bases, or at least agreements from states that China could pass through theirterritory.TherearenowtensofmillionsofChinesearoundtheworld,insomecaseshousedinhugecomplexesforworkersinpartsofAfrica.Chinawillstruggletobecomeagileoverthenextdecade.Itcouldbarelymanoeuvrethe

People’sArmy’sequipmenttohelpintheaftermathofthedevastating2008earthquakeinSichuan.Itmobilisedthearmy,butnottheirmateriel;movingabroadatspeedwouldbeanevengreaterchallenge.This will change. China is not weighed down or motivated diplomatically or

economically by human rights in its dealings with the world. It is secure in its borders,straining against the bonds of the First Island Chain, and nowmoving around the globewithconfidence.IfitcanavoidaseriousconflictwithJapanortheUSA,thentheonlyrealdangertoChinaisitself.There are 1.4 billion reasonswhy Chinamay succeed, and 1.4 billion reasonswhy it

maynotsurpassAmericaasthegreatestpowerintheworld.Agreatdepressionlikethatofthe1930scouldsetitbackdecades.Chinahaslockeditselfintotheglobaleconomy.Ifwedon’tbuy, theydon’tmake.And if theydon’tmake therewill bemassunemployment. Ifthere is mass and long-term unemployment, in an age when the Chinese are a peoplepacked into urban areas, the inevitable social unrest could be – like everything else inmodernChina–onascalehithertounseen.

CHAPTER3

USA

‘Reportsofmydeathhavebeengreatlyexaggerated.’MarkTwain

L

OCATION,LOCATION,LOCATION. IFYOUWONTHELOTTERY,ANDwere lookingtobuyacountrytolive in, the first one the estate agentwould show youwould be theUnited States of

America.Twainwas referring to the erroneous reporting of his death, but he could have been

talkingabouttheover-reportingofthedemiseoftheUSA.It’sinawonderfulneighbourhood,theviewsaremarvellousandtherearesometerrific

water features, the transport links are excellent; and theneighbours?Theneighbours aregreat,notroubleatall.Ifyoubrokethislivingspaceupintonumeroussectionsitwouldconsiderablylowerits

value–especiallyifthetenantsdidnotallspeakthesamelanguageandpaidtherentindifferentcurrencies–butasonehome,foronefamily,itcan’tbebettered.TherearefiftyAmericanstates,buttheyadduptoonenationinawaythetwenty-eight

sovereignstatesof theEuropeanUnionnevercan.Mostof theEUstateshaveanationalidentity far stronger,more defined, than anyAmerican state. It is easy to find a FrenchpersonwhoisFrenchfirst,Europeansecond,oronewhopayslittleallegiancetotheideaofEurope,butanAmericanidentifieswiththeirUnioninawayfewEuropeansdotheirs.Thisisexplainedbygeography,andbythehistoryoftheunificationoftheUSA.Paintingthisvastcountryinbold,broadbrushstrokesfromeasttowest,youcandivide

itintothreeparts.First there is theEastCoastPlain leadingto theAppalachianMountains,anareawell

wateredbyshortbutnavigableriversandwithfertilesoil.Then,headingfurtherwest,youhavetheGreatPlainsstretchingallthewaytotheRockyMountains,andwithinthissectionlies the Mississippi basin with its network of huge, navigable rivers flowing into theMississippi River all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico, which is sheltered by thepeninsulaofFloridaandseveralislands.OnceoverthemassivemountainrangethatistheRockies you get to the desert, the SierraNevadaMountains, a narrow coastal plain, andfinallytotheshoresofthePacificOcean.Tothenorth,abovetheGreatLakes,liestheCanadianShield,theworld’slargestareaof

Precambrianrock,muchofwhichformsabarriertohumansettlement.Tothesouth-west–desert.Geographyhaddeterminedthatifapoliticalentitycouldgettoandthencontroltheland‘fromseatoshiningsea’, itwouldbeagreatpower,thegreatesthistoryhasknown.Considering the continent is 3,000 miles from coast to coast, this was achieved in anastonishinglyquicktime.WhentheEuropeansfirstbegantolandandstayintheearlyseventeenthcentury,they

quickly realised that the east coast of this ‘virgin’ territory was packed with natural

harbours and fertile soil.Herewas a placewhere they could live and, unlike their homecountries,aplacewheretheyhopedtheycouldlivefreely.Theirdescendantswouldgoonto deny the native inhabitants their freedom, but that was not the intention of the firstsettlers.GeographypulledthemacrosstheAtlanticinevergreaternumbers.The last of the original thirteen colonies to be established was Georgia in 1732. The

thirteen became increasingly independently minded all the way up to the AmericanRevolutionaryWar(1775–83).Atthebeginningofthisperiodthecolonies,whichgraduallybegan to connect to each other, stretched 1,000 miles from Massachusetts in the north,downtoGeorgia,andhadanestimatedcombinedpopulationofabout2.5millionpeople.Theywereboundedby theAtlantic to theireast,and theAppalachianMountains to theirwest.TheAppalachians,1,500mileslong,areimpressive,butcomparedtotheRockies,notparticularly high. Nevertheless, they still formed a formidable barrier to westwardmovement for the early settlers, who were busy consolidating what territory they hadsubduedandpreparingtogovernitthemselves.Thecolonistshadanotherbarrier,thisonepolitical.TheBritishgovernmentforbadesettlementwestoftheAppalachiansasitwantedtoensurethattrade,andtaxes,remainedontheEasternseaboard.TheDeclarationofIndependence(1776)states:‘Wheninthecourseofhumanevents,it

becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connectedthemwithanother,andtoassumethePowersoftheearth,theseparateandequalstationtowhichtheLawsofNatureandofNature’sGodentitlethem,adecentrespecttotheopinionsof mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to theseparation.’Itgoesontooutlineatsomelengththosecauses,andtostate(withnohintofslave-owning irony) that itwas self-evident thatallmenwerecreatedequal.ThesenoblesentimentshelpedtofuelthevictoryintheWarofIndependence,whichinturngavebirthtoanewnationstate.Intheearly1800sthisnewcountry’sleadershipstillhadlittleideathatitwasthousands

ofmilesfromthe‘SouthSea’orPacific.UsingIndiantrails,afewexplorers,forwhomtheword intrepidcouldhavebeencoined,hadpushed through theAppalachiansandreachedtheMississippi.There they thought theymight findawaterway leading to theoceanandthus joining up with the vast tracts of lands the Spanish had explored across the south-westernandPacificcoastalregions,includingwhatarenowTexasandCalifornia.Atthispoint thefledglingUSAwasfar fromsecure,andif ithadbeenrestrictedto its

thenboundaries,wouldhave struggled to becomea great power. Its citizens alreadyhadaccess to the Ohio River, just west of the Appalachians, but that led to the Mississippi,whose western bankwas controlled by the French all the way down to the city of NewOrleans.Thisgave theFrenchcommandofAmerican tradeheadingout to theOldWorld

from the Gulf of Mexico, as well as the vast territory to the west in what is now theAmerican heartland. In 1802, a year after Thomas Jefferson assumed the presidency, hewrote: ‘There is on the globe one single spot, the possessor of which is our natural andhabitualenemy.ItisNewOrleans.’So France was the possessor and the problem; but the solution, unusually, was not

warfare.In1803theUnitedStatessimplyboughtcontrolof theentireLouisianaTerritory from

France.ThelandstretchedfromtheGulfofMexiconorth-westuptotheheadwatersofthetributariesoftheMississippiRiverintheRockyMountains.Itwasanareaequivalentinsizeto modern-day Spain, Italy, France, the UK and Germany combined. With it came theMississippibasin,fromwhichflowedAmerica’sroutetogreatness.Atthestrokeofapen,andthehandingoverof$15million,theLouisianaPurchaseof

1803 doubled the size of the USA and gave it mastery over the greatest inland watertransportrouteintheworld.AstheAmericanhistorianHenryAdamswrote,‘NeverdidtheUnitedStatesgetsomuchforsolittle.’The greater Mississippi basin has more miles of navigable river than the rest of the

worldputtogether.Nowhereelsearetheresomanyriverswhosesourceisnotinhighland,and whose waters run smoothly all the way to the ocean across vast distances. TheMississippi,fedbymuchofthebasinriversystem,beginsnearMinneapolisandends1,800milesawayintheGulfofMexico.Sotheriverswerethenaturalconduitforever-increasingtrade,leadingtoagreatportandallusingwaterbornecraftwhichwas,andis,manytimescheaperthanroadtravel.The Americans now had strategic geographical depth, a massive fertile land and an

alternative to the Atlantic ports with which to conduct business. They also had ever-expandingrouteseasttowestlinkingtheEastCoasttothenewterritory,andthentheriversystems flowing north to south to connect the then sparsely populated lands with eachother,thusencouragingAmericatoformasasingleentity.Therewasnowasensethatthenationwouldbecomeacolossus,acontinentalpower.

Theypushedonwards,everwestwards,butwithaneyeonthesouthandthesecurityofthejewelinthecrown–theMississippi.By1814theBritishhadgone,andtheFrenchhadgivenuponLouisiana.Thetricknow

wastogettheSpanishtogo.Itwasn’ttoodifficult.TheSpanishwereexhaustedbythewarinEuropeagainstNapoleon;theAmericanswerepushingtheSeminoleIndiannationintoSpanishFlorida,andMadridknewthatwavesof settlerswouldbe following. In1819 theSpanishcededFloridatotheUSAandwithitamassiveamountofterritory.The Louisiana Purchase had given the USA the heartland, but the Transcontinental

Treatyof1819gavethemsomethingalmostasvaluable.TheSpanishacceptedthattheUSAwouldhavejurisdictioninthefarwestabovethe42ndparallel,onwhatisnowtheborderofCaliforniaandOregon,whileSpainwouldcontrolwhatlaybelow,westoftheAmericanterritories.TheUSAhadreachedthePacific.At the timemostAmericans thought thegreatvictoryof1819wasgettingFlorida,but

SecretaryofStateJohnQuincyAdamswroteinhisdiary:‘Theacquisitionofadefinitelineofboundarytothe[Pacific]formsagreatepochinourhistory.’ButtherewasanotherSpanish-speakingproblem–Mexico.Because the Louisiana Purchase doubled the size of the USA, when Mexico became

independentofSpainin1821itsborderwasjust200milesfromtheportofNewOrleans.Inthetwenty-firstcenturyMexicoposesnoterritorialthreattotheUSA,althoughitsproximitycausesAmericaproblems,asitfeedsitsnorthernneighbour’sappetiteforillegallabouranddrugs.In1821thatwasdifferent.MexicocontrolledlandallthewayuptonorthernCalifornia,

whichtheUSAcould livewith,but italsostretchedouteast, includingwhat isnowTexaswhich,thenasnow,bordersLouisiana.Mexico’spopulationatthetimewas6.2million,theUSA’s9.6million.TheUSarmymayhavebeenabletoseeoffthemightyBritish,buttheyhadbeenfighting3,000milesfromhomewithsupplylinesacrossanocean.TheMexicanswerenextdoor.Quietly,WashingtonencouragedAmericansandnewarrivalstobegintosettleonboth

sides of the US–Mexican border.Waves of immigrants came and spreadwest and south-west.Therewas little chanceof themputtingdown roots in the regionwenowknowasmodernMexico, thus assimilating, and boosting the population numbers there.Mexico isnotblessed in theAmericanway. Ithaspoor-qualityagricultural land,noriver systemtousefortransport,andwaswhollyundemocratic,withnewarrivalshavinglittlechanceofeverbeinggrantedland.While the infiltrationofTexaswasgoingon,Washington issuedthe ‘MonroeDoctrine’

(namedafterPresidentJamesMonroe)in1823.ThisboileddowntowarningtheEuropeanpowersthattheycouldnolongerseeklandintheWesternHemisphere,andthatiftheylostanypartsoftheirexistingterritorytheycouldnotreclaimthem.Orelse.Bythemid-1830stherewereenoughwhitesettlersinTexastoforcetheMexicanissue.

TheMexican, Catholic, Spanish-speaking population numbered in the low thousands, buttherewere about 20,000white Protestant settlers. TheTexasRevolution of 1835–6drovetheMexicansout,but itwasaclose-run thing,andhad the settlers lost then theMexicanarmywouldhavebeeninapositiontomarchonNewOrleansandcontrolthesouthernendoftheMississippi.Itisoneofthegreat‘whatifs’ofmodernhistory.

However, history turned the other way and Texas became independent via Americanmoney,armsandideas.TheterritorywentontojointheUnionin1845andtogethertheyfoughtthe1846–8MexicanWar,inwhichtheycrushedtheirsouthernneighbour,whichwasrequiredtoacceptthatMexicoendedinthesandsofthesouthernbankoftheRioGrande.WithCalifornia,NewMexicoandlandwhichisnowArizona,Nevada,Utahandpartof

Colorado included, the borders of continentalUSA then looked similar to those of today,and they are in many ways natural borders. In the south, the Rio Grande runs throughdesert; to the north are great lakes and rocky landwith few people close to the border,especiallyintheeasternhalfofthecontinent;andtotheeastandwest–thegreatoceans.However,inthetwenty-firstcentury,inthesouth-westtheculturalhistoricalmemoryoftheregionasHispaniclandislikelytoresurface,asthedemographicsarechangingrapidlyandHispanicswillbethemajoritypopulationwithinafewdecades.Butbackto1848.TheEuropeanshadgone,theMississippibasinwassecurefromland

attack,thePacificwasreachedanditwasobviousthattheremainingIndiannationswouldbe subdued: therewasno threat to theUSA. Itwas time tomake somemoney, and thenventure out across the seas to secure the approaches to the three coastlines of thesuperpower-to-be.The California Gold Rush of 1848–9 helped, but the immigrants were heading west

anyway. After all, there was a continental empire to build, and as it developed, moreimmigrants followed. TheHomestead Act of 1862 awarded 160 acres of federally ownedlandtoanyonewhofarmeditforfiveyearsandpaidasmallfee.IfyouwereapoormanfromGermany, Scandinavia, or Italy,why go to LatinAmerica and be a serf,when youcouldgototheUSAandbeafreeland-owningman?In 1867Alaskawas bought fromRussia. At the time itwas known as ‘Seward’s folly’

aftertheSecretaryofState,WilliamSeward,whoagreedthedeal.Hepaid$7.2million,or2centsanacre.Thepressaccusedhimofpurchasingsnow,butmindswerechangedwiththediscoveryofmajorgolddeposits in1896.Decades laterhugereservesofoilwerealsofound.Two years on, in 1869, came the opening of the transcontinental railroad. Now you

could cross the country in a week, whereas it had previously taken several hazardousmonths.As the country grew, and grewwealthy, it began to develop a BlueWater navy. For

most of the nineteenth century foreign policy was dominated by expanding trade andavoidingentanglementsoutsidetheneighbourhood,butitwastimetopushoutandprotecttheapproachestothecoastlines.TheonlyrealthreatwasfromSpain–itmayhavebeenpersuadedtoleavethemainlandbutitstillcontrolledtheislandsofCuba,PuertoRicoand

partofwhatisnowtheDominicanRepublic.CubainparticularkeptAmericanpresidentsawakeatnight,asitwouldagainin1962

during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The island sits just off Florida, giving it access to andpotentialcontroloftheFloridaStraitsandtheYucatanChannelintheGulfofMexico.ThisistheexitandentryroutefortheportofNewOrleans.Spain’s powermayhavebeendiminishing towards the endof thenineteenth century,

butitwasstillaformidablemilitaryforce.In1898theUSAdeclaredwaronSpain,routeditsmilitaryandgainedcontrolofCuba,withPuertoRica,GuamandthePhilippinesthrownin for good measure. They would all come in useful, but Guam in particular is a vitalstrategicassetandCubaastrategicthreatifcontrolledbyamajorpower.In 1898 that threatwas removed bywarwith Spain. In 1962 it was removed by the

threatofwarwiththeSovietUnionaftertheyblinkedfirst.TodaynogreatpowersponsorsCubaanditappearsdestinedtocomeunderthecultural,andprobablypolitical,influenceoftheUSAagain.Americawasmovingquickly.InthesameyearitsecuredCuba,theFloridaStraitsandto

agreatextenttheCaribbean,italsoannexedthePacificislandofHawaii,thusprotectingtheapproachestoitsownwestcoast.In1903AmericasignedatreatyleasingitexclusiverightstothePanamaCanal.Tradewasbooming.Most presidents bore in mind George Washington’s advice in his farewell address in

1796 not to get involved in ‘inveterate antipathies against particular nations, andpassionate attachments for others’, and to ‘steer clear of permanent alliances with anyportionoftheforeignworld’.Apart from a late – albeit crucial – entry into the FirstWorldWar, twentieth-century

Americadidmanage,mostly,toavoidentanglementsandalliancesuntil1941.TheSecondWorldWarchangedeverything.TheUSAwasattackedbyan increasingly

militaristic Japan after Washington imposed economic sanctions on Tokyo which wouldhavebrought the country to its knees.TheAmericans cameout swinging.Theyprojectedtheirnowvastpoweraroundtheworld,andinordertokeepthingsthatway,thistimetheydidn’tgohome.Astheworld’sgreatesteconomicandmilitarypost-warpower,Americanowneededto

controltheworld’ssealanes,tokeepthepeaceandgetthegoodstomarket.Theywerethe ‘lastmanstanding’.TheEuropeanshadexhaustedthemselves,andtheir

economies, like their towns and cities, were in ruins. The Japanese were crushed, theChinesedevastatedandatwarwitheachother,theRussiansweren’teveninthecapitalistgame.Acenturyearlier,theBritishhadlearnttheyneededforwardbasesandcoalingstations

from which to project and protect their naval power. Now, with Britain in decline, theAmericanslookedlasciviouslyattheBritishassetsandsaid,‘Nicebases–we’llhavethem.’The price was right. In the autumn of 1940 the British had desperately neededmore

warships.TheAmericanshad fifty spareand so,withwhatwascalled the ‘Destroyers forBases Agreement’, the British swapped their ability to be a global power for help inremaining in the war. Almost every British naval base in the Western Hemisphere washandedover.Thiswas,andisstill,forallcountries,aboutconcrete.Concreteinthebuildingofports,

runways, hardened aircraft hangars, fuel depots, dry docks and Special Forces trainingareas.IntheEast,afterthedefeatofJapan,AmericaseizedtheopportunitytobuildthesealloverthePacific.Guam,halfwayacross,theyalreadyhad;nowtheyhadbasesrightuptotheJapaneseislandofOkinawaintheEastChinaSea.TheAmericansalsolookedtotheland.IftheyweregoingtopaytoreconstructEurope

throughtheMarshallPlanof1948–51, theyhad toensure that theSovietUnionwouldn’twrecktheplaceandreachtheAtlanticcoast.TheDoughboysdidn’tgohome.InsteadtheysetupshopinGermanyandfaceddowntheRedArmyacrosstheNorthEuropeanPlain.In 1949 Washington led the formation of NATO and with it effectively assumed

commandoftheWesternworld’ssurvivingmilitarymight.ThecivilianheadofNATOmightwell be a Belgian one year, a Brit the next, but the military commander is always anAmerican,andbyfarthegreatestfirepowerwithinNATOisAmerican.No matter what the treaty says, NATO’s Supreme Commander ultimately answers to

Washington.TheUKandFrancewould learn to their costduring theSuezCrisisof1956,when they were compelled by American pressure to cease their occupation of the canalzone,losingmostoftheirinfluenceintheMiddleEastasaresult,thataNATOcountrydoesnotholdastrategicnavalpolicywithoutfirstaskingWashington.With Iceland, Norway, Britain and Italy (all founding members of NATO) having

grantedtheUSAaccessandrightstotheirbases,itnowdominatedtheNorthAtlanticandtheMediterraneanaswellasthePacific.In1951itextendeditsdominationtheredowntothe south by forming an alliancewithAustralia andNewZealand, and also to the northfollowingtheKoreanWarof1950–53.In the 1960s theUSA’s failure in Vietnamdamaged its confidence, andmade itmore

cautious about foreign entanglements. However, what was effectively a defeat did notsubstantiallyalterAmerica’sglobalstrategy.TherewerenowonlythreeplacesfromwhichachallengetoAmericanhegemonycould

come: aunitedEurope,Russia andChina.Allwould grow stronger, but twowould reachtheirlimits.

ThedreamofsomeEuropeansofanEUwith‘evercloserunion’andacommonforeignanddefencepolicyisdyingslowlybeforeoureyes,andevenifitwerenottheEUcountriesspend so little on defence that ultimately they remain reliant on theUSA. The economiccrashof2008haslefttheEuropeanpowersreducedincapacityandwithlittleappetiteforforeignadventures.In1991theRussianthreathadbeenseenoffduetoRussia’sownstaggeringeconomic

incompetence, military overstretch and failure to persuade the subjected masses in itsempirethatgulagsandtheoverproductionofstate-fundedtractorswasthewayahead.Therecentpush-backbyPutin’sRussia isathorninAmerica’sside,butnotaseriousthreattoAmerica’sdominance.WhenPresidentObamadescribedRussiaas‘nomorethanaregionalpower’in2014hemayhavebeenneedlesslyprovocative,buthewasn’twrong.ThebarsofRussia’s geographical prison, as seen in ChapterOne, are still in place: they still lack awarm-waterportwithaccesstotheglobalsealanesandstill lackthemilitarycapacityinwartime to reach the Atlantic via the Baltic and North seas, or the Black Sea and theMediterranean.TheUSAwaspartiallybehindthechangeofgovernmentinUkrainein2014.Itwanted

to extend democracy in the world, and it wanted to pull Ukraine away from RussianinfluenceandthusweakenPresidentPutin.Washingtonknowsthatduringthelastdecade,asAmericawasdistracted in Iraq andAfghanistan, theRussians took advantage inwhatthey call their ‘near abroad’, regaining a solid footing in places such as Kazakhstan andseizing territory inGeorgia. Belatedly, and somewhat half-heartedly, the Americans havebeentryingtorollbackRussiangains.AmericanscareaboutEurope,theycareaboutNATO,theywillsometimesact(ifitisin

theAmericaninterest),butRussiaisnow,fortheAmericans,mostlyaEuropeanproblem,albeitonetheykeepaneyeon.ThatleavesChina,andChinarising.Mostanalysiswrittenoverthepastdecadeassumesthatbythemiddleofthetwenty-first

century China will overtake the USA and become the leading superpower. For reasonspartiallydiscussedinChapterTwo,Iamnotconvinced.Itmaytakeacentury.Economically the Chinese are on theirway tomatching the Americans and that buys

themalotofinfluenceandaplaceatthetoptable,butmilitarilyandstrategicallytheyaredecadesbehind.TheUSAwillspendthosedecadesattemptingtoensureitstaysthatway,butitfeelsinevitablethatthegapwillclose.Theconcretecostsalot.Notjusttomixandpour,buttobeallowedtomixandpourit

where you want to. As we saw with the ‘Destroyers for Bases Agreement’, Americanassistance to other governments is not always entirely altruistic. Economic and, equally

importantly,military assistance buys permission to pour the concrete, butmuchmore aswell,evenifthereisalsoanaddedcost.Forexample,WashingtonmightbeoutragedathumanrightsabusesinSyria(ahostile

state) and express its opinions loudly, but its outrage at abuses in Bahrain might besomewhatmoredifficulttohear,muffledasithasbeenbytheenginesoftheUS5thFleetwhich is based in Bahrain as the guest of the Bahraini government. On the other hand,assistancedoesbuytheabilitytosuggesttogovernmentB(sayBurma)thatitmightwanttoresisttheoverturesofgovernmentC(sayChina).InthatparticularexampletheUSAisbehindthecurvebecausetheBurmesegovernmentonlyrecentlybegantoopenuptomostoftheoutsideworldandBeijinghasaheadstart.However, when it comes to Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore,

Malaysia, Indonesiaandothers, theAmericansarepushingatadooralreadyopenduetothose countries’ anxiety about their giant neighbour and keenness to engage withWashington.Theymayallhaveissueswitheachother,butthoseissuesaredwarfedbytheknowledge that if they do not stand together they will be picked off one by one andeventuallyfallunderChinesehegemony.TheUSAisstillintheopeningphaseofwhatin2011thethenSecretaryofStateHillary

Clintoncalled‘thepivottoChina’.Itwasaninterestingphrase,takenbysometomeantheabandonmentofEurope;butapivottowardsoneplacedoesnotmeantheabandonmentofanother.Itismoreacaseofhowmuchweightyouputonwhichfoot.Many US government foreign policy strategists are persuaded that the history of the

twenty-firstcenturywillbewritteninAsiaandthePacific.Halfoftheworld’spopulationlives there, and if India is included it is expected to account for half of global economicoutputby2050.Hence we will see the USA increasingly investing time and money in East Asia to

establish itspresenceandintentions intheregion.Forexample, inNorthernAustraliatheAmericanshavesetupabasefortheUSMarineCorps.Butinordertoexertrealinfluence,theymayalsohavetoinvestinlimitedmilitaryactiontoreassuretheiralliesthattheywillcome to their rescue in the event of hostilities. For example, if China begins shelling aJapanesedestroyerandit looksasiftheymighttakefurthermilitaryaction,theUSNavymayhave to firewarning shots towards theChinesenavy,oreven firedirectly, to signalthat it iswillingtogotowarover the incident.Equally,whenNorthKoreafiresatSouthKorea,thesouthfiresback,butcurrentlytheUSdoesnot.Insteaditputsforcesonalertinapublicmannertosendasignal.IfthesituationescalateditwouldthenfirewarningshotsataNorthKoreantarget,andfinally,directshots. It’sawayofescalatingwithoutdeclaringwar–andthisiswhenthingsgetdangerous.

TheUSAisseekingtodemonstratetothewholeregionthatitisintheirbestintereststosidewithWashington –China is doing the opposite. Sowhen challenged, each sidemustreact, because for each challenge it ducks, its allies’ confidence, and competitors’ fear,slowly drains away until eventually there is an event which persuades a state to switchsides.Analystsoftenwriteabouttheneedforcertainculturesnottoloseface,oreverbeseen

to back down, but this is not just a problem in the Arab or East Asian cultures – it is ahuman problem expressed in different ways. It may well be more defined and openlyarticulatedinthosetwocultures,butAmericanforeignpolicystrategistsareasawareoftheissueasanyotherpower.TheEnglish languageevenhas two sayingswhichdemonstratehowdeeplyingrainedtheideais:‘Givethemaninchandthey’lltakeamile’,andPresidentTheodore Roosevelt’smaxim of 1900which has now entered the political lexicon: ‘Speaksoftly,butcarryabigstick.’ThedeadlygameinthiscenturywillbehowtheChinese,Americansandothers in the

regionmanageeachcrisis thatariseswithout losing face,andwithoutbuildingupadeepwellofresentmentandangeronbothsides.The Cuban Missile Crisis is generally considered an American victory; what is less

publicised is that severalmonths afterRussia removed itsmissiles fromCuba, theUnitedStatesremoveditsJupitermissiles(whichcouldreachMoscow)fromTurkey.Itwasactuallyacompromise,withbothsides,eventually,abletotelltheirrespectivepublicsthattheyhadnotcapitulated.Inthetwenty-first-centuryPacifictherearemoregreatpowercompromisestobemade.

Intheshorttermmost,butnotall,arelikelytobemadebytheChinese–anearlyexampleisBeijing’s declarationof anAirDefence IdentificationZone requiring foreignnations toinform them before entering what is disputed territory, and the Americans deliberatelyflyingthroughitwithouttellingthem.TheChinesegainedsomethingbydeclaringthezoneandmakingitanissue;theUSAgainedsomethingbybeingseennottocomply.Itisalonggame.The US policy regarding the Japanese is to reassure them that they share strategic

interests vis-à-vis China and ensure that the US base in Okinawa remains open. TheAmericans will assist the Japanese Self Defence Force to be a robust body, butsimultaneouslyrestrictJapan’smilitaryabilitytochallengetheUSinthePacific.Whileall theothercountries intheregionmatter, inwhat isacomplicateddiplomatic

jigsawpuzzle,thekeystateslooktobeIndonesia,MalaysiaandSingapore.Thesethreesitastride the Strait ofMalacca, which at its narrowest is only 1.7miles across. Every daythroughthatstraitcome12millionbarrelsofoilheadingforanincreasinglythirstyChina

and elsewhere in the region. As long as these three countries are pro-American, theAmericanshaveakeyadvantage.Ontheplusside,theChinesearenotpoliticallyideological,theydonotseektospread

Communism,nordo theycovet (much)more territory in theway theRussiansdidduringthe Cold War, and neither side is looking for conflict. The Chinese can accept Americaguardingmost of the sea laneswhich deliver Chinese goods to theworld, so long as theAmericansacceptthattherewillbelimitstojusthowclosetoChinathatcontrolextends.Therewillbearguments,andnationalismwillbeusedtoensuretheunityoftheChinese

people fromtimeto time,buteachsidewillbeseekingcompromise.Thedangercomes iftheymisreadeachotherand/orgambletoomuch.Thereareflashpoints.TheAmericanshaveatreatywithTaiwanwhichstatesthatifthe

Chineseinvadewhattheyregardastheir23rdprovince,theUSAwillgotowar.AredlineforChina,whichcouldsparkaninvasion,isformalrecognitionofTaiwanbytheUSA,oradeclarationof independencebyTaiwan.However, there isnosignof that,andaChineseinvasioncannotbeseenonthissideofthehorizon.AsChina’sthirstforforeignoilandgasgrows,sothatoftheUnitedStatesdeclines.This

willhaveahugeimpactonitsforeignrelations,especiallyintheMiddleEast,withknock-oneffectsforothercountries.Due to offshore drilling in US coastal waters, and underground fracking across huge

regionsofthecountry,Americalooksdestinedtobecomenotjustself-sufficientinenergy,butanetexporterofenergyby2020.ThiswillmeanthatitsfocusonensuringaflowofoilandgasfromtheGulfregionwilldiminish.Itwillstillhavestrategicintereststhere,butthefocuswillnolongerbesointense.IfAmericanattentionwanes,theGulfnationswillseeknewalliances.OnecandidatewillbeIran,anotherChina,butthatwillonlyhappenwhenthe Chinese have built their BlueWater navy and, equally importantly, are prepared todeployit.TheUS5thFleetisnotabouttosailawayfromitsportinBahrain–thatisapieceof

concrete it would give up reluctantly. However, if the energy supplies of Saudi Arabia,Kuwait,theUAEandQatararenolongerrequiredtokeepAmericanlightson,andcarsontheroad,theAmericanpublicandCongresswillask,whatisittherefor?Iftheresponseis‘tocheckIran’itmaynotbeenoughtoquashthedebate.Elsewhere in the Middle East, US policy in the short term is to prevent Iran from

becoming too strong whilst at the same time reaching for what is known as the ‘grandbargain’ – an agreement settling the many issues which divide the two countries, andendingthreeandahalfdecadesofenmity.WiththeArabnationsembarkingonwhatmaybeadecades-longstrugglewitharmedIslamists,Washingtonlooksasifithasgivenupon

the optimistic idea of encouraging Jeffersonian democracies to emerge, and willconcentrate on attempting to manage the situation whilst at the same time desperatelytryingnottogetsandonthebootsofUSsoldiers.The close relationshipwith Israelmay cool, albeit slowly, as the demographics of the

USAchange.ThechildrenoftheHispanicandAsianimmigrantsnowarrivingintheUnitedStateswillbemoreinterestedinLatinAmericaandtheFarEastthaninatinycountryontheedgeofaregionnolongervitaltoAmericaninterests.ThepolicyinLatinAmericawillbetoensurethatthePanamaCanalremainsopen,to

enquireabouttheratestopassthroughtheproposedNicaraguancanaltothePacific,andtokeep an eye on the rise of Brazil in case it gets any ideas about its influence in theCaribbeanSea.InAfrica,theAmericansarebutonenationseekingthecontinent’snaturalwealth,but

thenationfindingmostofitisChina.AsintheMiddleEast,theUSAwillwatchtheIslamiststruggle inNorthAfricawith interestbut trynot toget involvedmuchcloser than30,000feetabovetheground.America’sexperimentwithnation-buildingoverseasappearstobeover.InIraq,Afghanistanandelsewhere,theUSAunderestimatedthementalityandstrength

of small powers andof tribes. TheAmericans’ ownhistoryof physical security andunitymay have led them to overestimate the power of their democratic rationalist argument,whichbelievesthatcompromise,hardworkandevenvotingwouldtriumphoveratavistic,deep-seated historical fears of ‘the other’, be they Sunni, Shia, Kurd, Arab, Muslim orChristian.Theyassumedpeoplewouldwant to come togetherwhereas in factmanydarenot try andwould prefer to live apart because of their experiences. It is a sad reflectionuponhumanity,butitappearsthroughoutmanyperiodsofhistory,andinmanyplaces,tobeanunfortunatetruth.TheAmericanactionstookthelidoffasimmeringpotwhichhadtemporarilyhiddenthattruth.This does notmakeAmerican policymakers ‘naive’, as some of the snootier European

diplomats like to believe; but they do have a ‘can do’ and a ‘can fix’ attitude whichinevitablywillnotalwayswork.For thirtyyears ithasbeen fashionable topredict the imminentorongoingdeclineof

theUSA.Thisisaswrongnowasitwasinthepast.Theplanet’smostsuccessfulcountryisabouttobecomeself-sufficientinenergy,itremainsthepre-eminenteconomicpoweranditspendsmoreonresearchanddevelopmentforitsmilitarythantheoverallmilitarybudgetof all the otherNATOcountries combined. Its population is not ageing as inEurope andJapan,anda2013Gallupstudyshowedthat25percentofallpeoplehopingtoemigrateputtheUSAastheirfirstchoiceofdestination.InthesameyearShanghaiUniversitylisted

whatitsexpertsjudgedthetoptwentyuniversitiesoftheworld:seventeenwereintheUSA.ThePrussianstatesmanOttovonBismarck,inadouble-edgedremark,saidmorethana

century ago that ‘God takes special care of drunks, children and the United States ofAmerica.’Itappearsstilltobetrue.

CHAPTER4

WESTERNEUROPE

‘Herethepastwaseverywhere,anentirecontinentsownwithmemories.’

MirandaRichmondMouillot,AFifty-YearSilence:Love,WarandaRuinedHouseinFrance

T

HEMODERNWORLD,FORBETTERORWORSE,SPRINGSFROMEurope.Thiswesternoutpostof thegreatEurasianlandmassgavebirthtotheEnlightenment,whichledtotheIndustrial

Revolution,whichhasresultedinwhatwenowseearounduseveryday.Forthatwecangivethanksto,orblame,Europe’slocation.Theclimate,fedbytheGulfStream,blessedtheregionwiththerightamountofrainfall

tocultivatecropsona large scale,and the right typeof soil for them to flourish in.Thisallowed forpopulationgrowth inanarea inwhich, formost,workwaspossibleall yearround, even in the heights of summer.Winter actually adds a bonus, with temperatureswarmenoughtowork inbutcoldenoughtokilloffmanyof thegermswhichto thisdayplaguehugepartsoftherestoftheworld.Good harvests mean surplus food that can be traded; this in turn builds up trading

centreswhichbecometowns.Italsoallowspeopletothinkofmorethanjustgrowingfoodandturntheirattentiontoideasandtechnology.WesternEuropehasnorealdeserts,thefrozenwastesareconfinedtoafewareasinthe

farnorth,andearthquakes,volcanoesandmassive floodingarerare.Theriversare long,flat,navigableandmade for trade.As theyempty intoavarietyof seasandoceans theyflowintocoastlineswhichare,west,northandsouth,abundantinnaturalharbours.IfyouarereadingthistrappedinasnowstormintheAlps,orwaitingforfloodwatersto

subside back into the Danube, then Europe’s geographical blessings may not seem tooapparent;but,relativetomanyplaces,blessingstheyare.ThesearethefactorswhichledtotheEuropeanscreatingthefirstindustrialisednationstates,whichinturnledthemtobethefirsttoconductindustrial-scalewar.IfwetakeEuropeasawholeweseethemountains,riversandvalleysthatexplainwhy

there are so many nation states. Unlike the USA, in which one dominant language andculturepressedrapidlyandviolentlyeverwestward,creatingagiantcountry,Europegreworganically over millennia and remains divided between its geographical and linguisticregions.The various tribes of the Iberian Peninsula, for example, prevented from expanding

northintoFrancebythepresenceofthePyrenees,graduallycametogetheroverthousandsof years to formSpain andPortugal – and even Spain is not an entirely united country,with Catalonia increasingly vocal aboutwanting its independence. France has also beenformed by natural barriers, framed as it is by the Pyrenees, the Alps, the Rhine and theAtlanticOcean.Europe’s major rivers do not meet (unless you count the Sava, which drains into the

Danube in Belgrade). This partly explainswhy there are somany countries inwhat is a

relativelysmallspace.Becausetheydonotconnect,mostoftheriversact,atsomepoint,asboundaries,andeachisasphereofeconomicinfluenceinitsownright;thisgaverisetoatleast one major urban development on the banks of each river, some of which in turnbecamecapitalcities.Europe’s second-longest river, theDanube (1,780miles), is a case in point. It rises in

Germany’s Black Forest and flows south on itsway to the Black Sea. In all, the Danubebasinaffectseighteencountriesandformsnaturalbordersalongtheway,includingthoseofSlovakia and Hungary, Croatia and Serbia, Serbia and Romania, and Romania andBulgaria.Over2,000yearsago itwasoneof thebordersof theRomanEmpire,which inturnhelpedittobecomeoneofthegreattradingroutesofmedievaltimesandgaverisetothepresentcapitalcitiesofVienna,Bratislava,BudapestandBelgrade. Italso formedthenaturalborderoftwosubsequentempires,theAustro-HungarianandtheOttoman.Aseachshrank, the nations emerged again, eventually becoming nation states. However, thegeographyoftheDanuberegion,especiallyatitssouthernend,helpsexplainwhytherearesomanysmallnationsthereincomparisontothebiggercountriesinandaroundtheNorthEuropeanPlain.

TheDanubeBasinillustratesthegeographicaladvantagesoftheterraininEurope;interconnectedriversonaflatplainprovidednaturalbordersandaneasilynavigabletransportnetworkthatencouragedaboomingtradesystem.

The countries ofnorthernEuropehavebeen richer than thoseof the south for several

centuries.Thenorthindustrialisedearlierthanthesouthandsohasbeenmoreeconomicallysuccessful. Asmany of the northern countries comprise the heartland ofWestern Europe,their trade links were easier to maintain, and one wealthy neighbour could trade withanother–whereas theSpanish, forexample,eitherhad tocross thePyrenees to trade,orlooktothelimitedmarketsofPortugalandNorthAfrica.TherearealsounprovabletheoriesthatthedominationofCatholicisminthesouthhas

helditback,whereastheProtestantworkethicpropelledthenortherncountriestogreaterheights. Each time I visit the Bavarian city ofMunich I reflect on this theory, andwhiledrivingpastthegleamingtemplesoftheheadquartersofBMW,AllianzandSiemenshavecausetodoubtit.InGermany34percentofthepopulationisCatholic,andBavariaitselfispredominantlyCatholic,yet theirreligiouspredilectionsdonotappear tohave influencedeithertheirprogressortheirinsistencethatGreeksworkharderandpaymoretaxes.ThecontrastbetweennorthernandsouthernEuropeisalsoatleastpartlyattributableto

the fact that the south has fewer coastal plains suitable for agriculture, and has sufferedmore from drought and natural disasters than the north, albeit on a lesser scale than inotherpartsoftheworld.AswesawinChapterOne,theNorthEuropeanPlainisacorridorthat stretches fromFrance to theUralMountains inRussia, bordered to thenorthby theNorthandBaltic seas.The landallows for successful farmingonamassive scale,and thewaterwaysenablethecropsandothergoodstobemovedeasily.Ofallthecountriesintheplain,Francewasbestsituatedtotakeadvantageofit.France

is the only European country to be both a northern and southern power. It contains thelargestexpanseoffertilelandinWesternEurope,andmanyofitsriversconnectwitheachother; one flows west all the way to the Atlantic (the Seine), another south to theMediterranean (the Rhône). These factors, together with its relative flatness, lentthemselves to unification of regions, and – especially from the time of Napoleon –centralisationofpower.ButtothesouthandwestmanycountriesremaininthesecondtierofEuropeanpower,

partiallybecauseof their location.Thesouthof Italy, forexample, isstillwellbehindthenorthintermsofdevelopment,andalthoughithasbeenaunifiedstate(includingVeniceandRome)since1871,thestrainsoftheriftbetweennorthandsoutharegreaternowthanthey have been since before the Second World War. The heavy industry, tourism andfinancialcentresofthenorthhavelongmeantahigherstandardoflivingthere,leadingtotheformationofpoliticalpartiesagitatingforcuttingstatesubsidiestothesouth,orevenbreakingawayfromit.Spainisalsostruggling,andhasalwaysstruggledbecauseofitsgeography.Itsnarrow

coastalplainshavepoorsoil,andaccesstomarketsishinderedinternallybyitsshortrivers

andtheMesetaCentral,ahighlandplateausurroundedbymountainranges,someofwhichcut through it.TradewithWesternEurope is furtherhamperedby thePyrenees, andanymarketstoitssouthontheothersideoftheMediterraneanareindevelopingcountrieswithlimited income. It was left behind after the Second World War, as under the Francodictatorship itwaspolitically frozenoutofmuchofmodernEurope.Francodied in1975andthenewlydemocraticSpainjoinedtheEUin1986.Bythe1990sithadbeguntocatchupwiththerestofWesternEurope,butitsinherentgeographicalandfinancialweaknessescontinue to hold it back and have intensified the problems of overspending and loosecentralfiscalcontrol.Ithasbeenamongthecountrieshitworstbythe2008economiccrisis.Greecesufferssimilarly.MuchoftheGreekcoastlinecomprisessteepcliffsandthereare

fewcoastalplainsforagriculture.Inlandaremoresteepcliffs,riverswhichwillnotallowtransportation, and few wide, fertile valleys. What agricultural land there is is of highquality; the problem is that there is too little of it to allow Greece to become a majoragriculturalexporter,or todevelopmore thanahandfulofmajorurbanareascontaininghighly educated, highly skilled and technologically advanced populations. Its situation isfurtherexacerbatedbyitslocation,withAthenspositionedatthetipofapeninsula,almostcutofffromlandtradewithEurope.ItisreliantontheAegeanSeaforaccesstomaritimetradeintheregion–butacrossthatsealiesTurkey,alargepotentialenemy.Greecefoughtseveralwars against Turkey in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, and inmoderntimesstillspendsavastamountofeuros,whichitdoesn’thave,ondefence.Themainlandisprotectedbymountains,butthereareabout1,400Greekislands(6,000

ifyouincludevariousrocksstickingoutoftheAegean)ofwhichabout200areinhabited.Ittakesadecentnavyjusttopatrolthisterritory,nevermindonestrongenoughtodeteranyattempttotakethemover.TheresultisahugecostinmilitaryspendingthatGreececannotafford.DuringtheColdWartheAmericans,andtoalesserextenttheBritish,werecontenttounderwritesomeofthemilitaryrequirementsinordertokeeptheSovietUnionoutoftheAegeanandtheMediterranean.WhentheColdWarended,sodidthecheques.ButGreecekeptspending.Thishistoricalsplitcontinuestohaveanimpacttothisdayinthewakeofthefinancial

crash thathitEurope in2008and the ideological rift in theEurozone. In2012,when thebailouts began and demands for austerity measures were made, the geographical dividesoon became obvious. The donors and demanders were the northern countries, therecipients and supplicantsmostly southern. It didn’t take long for people inGermany topoint out that they were working until sixty-five but paying taxes which were going toGreecesothatpeoplecouldretireatfifty-five.Theythenasked–why?Andtheanswer,‘insicknessandinhealth’,wasunsatisfactory.

TheGermans led the bailout-imposed austeritymeasures, theGreeks led the backlash.Forexample,theGermanFinanceMinisterWolfgangSchäublecommentedthathewas‘notyetsurethatallpoliticalpartiesinGreeceareawareoftheirresponsibilityforthedifficultsituation their country is in’. To which the Greek president, Karolos Papoulias, who hadfoughttheNazis,replied,‘IcannotacceptMrSchäubleinsultingmycountry...WhoisMrSchäuble to insult Greece? Who are the Dutch? Who are the Finnish?’ He also made apointedreferencetotheSecondWorldWar:‘Wewerealwaysproudtodefendnotonlyourfreedom, our country, but Europe’s freedom too.’ The stereotypes of profligate, slacksoutherners and careful, industrious northerners soon resurfaced with the Greek mediarespondingwithconstantandcruderemindersofGermany’spast,includingsuperimposingaHitlermoustacheonafrontpagephotographofChancellorMerkel.TheGreektaxpayer–ofwhomtherearenotenoughtosustainthecountry’seconomy–

has a verydifferent view, asking: ‘Why should theGermansdictate tous,when the eurobenefitsthemmorethananyoneelse?’InGreeceandelsewhereausteritymeasuresimposedfromthenorthareseenasanassaultonsovereignty.Cracks are appearing in the edifice of the ‘family of Europe’. On the periphery of

WesternEuropethefinancialcrisishasleftGreecelookinglikeasemi-detachedmember;totheeastithasagainseenconflict.Iftheaberrationofthepastseventyyearsofpeaceistocontinuethroughthiscentury,thatpeacewillneedlove,careandattention.The post-Second-World-War generations have grown up with peace as the norm, but

whatisdifferentaboutthecurrentgenerationisthatEuropeansfinditdifficulttoimaginetheopposite.Warsnowseemtobewhathappenselsewhereorinthepast–atworsttheyhappen on the ‘periphery’ of Europe. The trauma of twoworldwars, followed by sevendecadesofpeaceand then the collapseof theSovietUnion,persuadedmanypeople thatWesternEuropewasa‘post-conflict’region.There are reasons to believe that this may still hold true in the future, but potential

sourcesofconflictbubbleunderthesurface,andthetensionbetweentheEuropeansandtheRussians may result in a confrontation. For example, history and geographical shape-shiftinghauntsPolishforeignpolicyevenifthecountryiscurrentlyatpeace,successfulandoneofthebiggerEUstates,withapopulationof38million.ItisalsophysicallyoneofthelargermembersanditseconomyhasdoubledsinceitemergedfrombehindtheIronCurtain,butstillitlookstothepastasittriestosecureitsfuture.The corridor of the North European Plain is at its narrowest between Poland’s Baltic

coast in the north and the beginning of the Carpathian Mountains in the south. This iswhere,fromaRussianmilitaryperspective,thebestdefensivelinecouldbeplacedor,froman attacker’s viewpoint, the point at which its forceswould be squeezed together before

breakingouttowardsRussia.The Poles have seen it both ways as armies have swept east and west across it,

frequently changing borders. If you take The Times Atlas of European History and flickthrough the pages quickly as if it were a flip-book, you see Poland emerge c.1000, thencontinuallychangeshape,disappearandreappearbeforeassumingitspresentforminthelatetwentiethcentury.The location of Germany andRussia, coupledwith the Poles’ experience of these two

countries, doesnotmake either anatural ally forWarsaw. Like France, Polandwants tokeepGermany locked inside theEUandNATO,whilenot-so-ancient fearsofRussiahavecometotheforewiththecrisisinUkraine.OverthecenturiesPolandhasseentheRussiantideebbandflowfromandto them.After the lowtideat theendof theSoviet (Russian)empire,therewasonlyonedirectionitcouldsubsequentlyflow.Relations with Britain, as a counterweight to Germany within the EU, came easily

despitethebetrayalof1939:BritainandFrancehadsignedatreatyguaranteeingtocometoPoland’s aid ifGermany invaded.When theattackcame the response to theBlitzkriegwas a ‘Sitzkrieg’ – both Allies sat behind the Maginot Line in France as Poland wasswallowed up. Despite this, relations with the UK are strong, even if the main ally thenewlyliberatedPolandsoughtoutin1989wastheUSA.TheAmericans embraced the Poles and vice versa: both had the Russians inmind. In

1999Poland joinedNATO,extending theAlliance’s reach400miles closer toMoscow.BythenseveralotherformerWarsawPactcountrieswerealsomembersoftheAllianceandin1999MoscowwatchedhelplesslyasNATOwent towarwith itsally,Serbia. In the1990sRussia was in no position to push back, but after the chaos of the Yeltsin years Putinsteppedinonthefrontfootandcameoutswinging.Thebest-knownquoteattributedtoHenryKissingeroriginatedinthe1970s,whenheis

reported to have asked: ‘If Iwant to phone Europe –who do I call?’ The Poles have anupdatedquestion:‘IftheRussiansthreaten,dowecallBrusselsorWashington?’Theyknowtheanswer.TheBalkancountriesarealsoonceagainfreeofempire.Theirmountainousterrainled

to theemergenceof somanysmall states in the region,and isoneof the things thathaskept them from integrating – despite the best efforts of the experiment of the Union ofSouthernSlavs,otherwiseknownasYugoslavia.With the wars of the 1990s behind them, most of the former Yugoslav countries are

lookingwestward,but inSerbiathepullof theeast,with itsOrthodoxreligionandSlavicpeoples, remains strong. Russia, which has yet to forgive the Western nations for thebombingofSerbiain1999andtheseparationofKosovo,isstillattemptingtocoaxSerbia

intoitsorbitviathegravitationalpulloflanguage,ethnicity,religionandenergydeals.Bismarckfamouslysaidthatamajorwarwouldbesparkedby‘somedamnedfoolthing

in the Balkans’; and so it came to pass. The region is now an economic and diplomaticbattleground with the EU, NATO, the Turks and the Russians all vying for influence.Albania,Bulgaria,CroatiaandRomaniahavemadetheirchoiceandareinsideNATO–and,apartfromAlbania,arealsointheEU,asisSlovenia.The tensions extend into the north and Scandinavia. Denmark is already a NATO

memberandtherecentresurgenceofRussiahascausedadebateinSwedenoverwhetheritistimetoabandontheneutralityoftwocenturiesandjointheAlliance.In2013Russianjetsstaged amock bombing run on Sweden in themiddle of the night. The Swedish defencesystemappearstohavebeenasleep,failingtoscrambleanyjets,anditwastheDanishairforce that took to the skies to shepherd the Russians away.Despite that, themajority ofSwedes remain against NATO membership, but the debate is ongoing, informed byMoscow’sstatementthatitwouldbeforcedto‘respond’ifeitherSwedenorFinlandweretojointheAlliance.TheEUandNATOcountriesneedtopresentaunitedfronttothesechallenges,butthis

will be impossible unless the key relationship in the EU remains intact – that betweenFranceandGermany.As we’ve seen, France was best placed to take advantage of Europe’s climate, trade

routesandnaturalborders.Itispartiallyprotected,exceptinonearea–thenorth-east,atthepointwherethe flatlandof theNorthEuropeanPlainbecomeswhat isnowGermany.Before Germany existed as a single country this was not a problem. France was aconsiderable distance from Russia, far from the Mongol hordes, and had the Channelbetween it and England, meaning that an attempt at a full-scale invasion and totaloccupationcouldprobablybe repulsed. In factFrancewas thepre-eminentpoweron theContinent:itcouldevenprojectitspowerasfarasthegatesofMoscow.ButthenGermanyunited.Ithadbeendoingsoforsometime.Therehadbeenthe‘idea’ofGermanyforcenturies:

theEasternFrankishlandswhichbecametheHolyRomanEmpireinthetenthcenturyweresometimes called ‘the Germanies’, comprising as they did up to 500 Germanic mini-kingdoms.AftertheHolyRomanEmpirewasdissolvedin1806theGermanConfederationofthirty-ninestateletscametogetherin1815attheCongressofVienna.ThisinturnledtotheNorthGermanConfederation, and then the unification ofGermany in 1871 after theFranco-PrussianWarinwhichvictoriousGermantroopsoccupiedParis.NowFrancehadaneighbour on its border thatwas geographically larger than itself,with a similar size ofpopulationbutonewithabettergrowthrate,andthatwasmoreindustrialised.

Theunificationwasannouncedat thePalaceofVersaillesnearParisaftertheGermanvictory.TheweakspotintheFrenchdefence,theNorthEuropeanPlain,hadbeenbreached.It would be again, twice, in the following seventy years, after which France would usediplomacyinsteadofwarfaretotrytoneutralisethethreatfromtheeast.Germany had always had bigger geographical problems than France. The flatlands of

theNorthEuropeanPlaingave it tworeasons tobe fearful: to thewest theGermanssawtheir long-unifiedandpowerfulneighbourFrance,andto theeast thegiantRussianBear.Theirultimatefearwasofasimultaneousattackbybothpowersacrosstheflatlandofthecorridor.Wecanneverknowifitwouldhavehappened,butthefearofithadcatastrophicconsequences.France fearedGermany,Germany fearedFrance, andwhenFrance joinedbothRussia

andBritainintheTripleEntenteof1907,Germanyfearedallthree.Therewasnowalsotheaddeddimension that theBritish navy could, at a time of its choosing, blockadeGermanaccesstotheNorthSeaandtheAtlantic.Itssolution,twice,wastoattackFrancefirst.ThedilemmaofGermany’sgeographicalpositionandbelligerencebecameknownas‘the

GermanQuestion’. The answer, after the horrors of the SecondWorldWar, indeed aftercenturies of war, was the acceptance of the presence in the European lands of a singleoverwhelmingpower,theUSA,whichsetupNATOandallowedfortheeventualcreationofthe European Union. Exhausted by war, and with safety ‘guaranteed’ by the Americanmilitary,theEuropeansembarkedonanastonishingexperiment.Theywereaskedtotrusteachother.What is now theEUwas set up so that France andGermany couldhug eachother so

tightly in a loving embrace that neitherwould be able to get an arm freewithwhich topunch the other. It has worked brilliantly and created a huge geographical space nowencompassingthebiggesteconomyintheworld.IthasworkedparticularlywellforGermany,whichrosefromtheashesof1945andused

to its advantage the geography it once feared. It became Europe’s great manufacturer.Insteadofsendingarmiesacrosstheflatlandsitsentgoodswiththeprestigioustag‘MadeinGermany’,andthesegoodsfloweddowntheRhineandtheElbe,alongtheautobahnsandoutintoEuropeandtheworld,north,south,westand,increasinglysince1990,east.However,whatbeganin1951asthesix-nationEuropeanSteelandCoalCommunityhas

becomethetwenty-eight-nationEUwithanideologicalcoreof‘evercloserunion’.AfterthefirstmajorfinancialcrisistohittheUnion,thatideologyisonanuncertainfootingandthetiesthatbindarefraying.TherearesignswithintheEUof,asthegeopoliticalwriterRobertKaplanputsit,‘therevengeofgeography’.Evercloserunionled,fornineteenofthetwenty-eightcountries,toasinglecurrency–

the euro. All twenty-eight members, except for Denmark and the UK, are committed tojoiningitifandwhentheymeetthecriteria.Whatisclearnow,andwastosomeclearatthetime,isthatatitslaunchin1999manycountrieswhichdidjoinweresimplynotready.In1999manyofthecountrieswentintothenewlydefinedrelationshipwitheyeswide

shut. Theywere all supposed to have levels of debt, unemployment and inflationwithincertainlimits.Theproblemwasthatsome,notablyGreece,werecookingthebooks.Mostoftheexpertsknew,butbecausetheeuroisnotjustacurrency–itisalsoanideology–themembersturnedablindeye.TheEurozonecountriesagreedtobeeconomicallywedded,astheGreekspointout, ‘in

sickness and in health’, butwhen the economic crisis of 2008hit, thewealthier countrieshadtobailoutthepoorerones,andabitterdomesticrowbrokeout.Thepartnersarestillthrowingdishesateachothertothisday.Theeurocrisisandwidereconomicproblemshaverevealedthecracks in theHouseof

Europe(notablyalongtheoldfaultlineofthenorth–southdivide).Thedreamofevercloserunionappearstobefrozen,orpossiblyeveninreverse.Ifitis,thentheGermanquestionmayreturn.Seenthroughtheprismofsevendecadesofpeace,thismayseemalarmist,andGermanyisamongthemostpeacefulanddemocraticmembersoftheEuropeanfamily;butseenthroughtheprismofsevencenturiesofEuropeanwarfare,itcannotberuledout.GermanyisdeterminedtoremainagoodEuropean.Germansknowinstinctivelythatif

theUnionfragmentstheoldfearsofGermanywillreappear,especiallyasitisnowbyfarthe most populous and wealthy European nation, with 82 million inhabitants and theworld’s fourth-biggest economy. A failed Unionwould also harmGermany economically:theworld’sthird-largestexporterofgoodsdoesnotwanttoseeitsclosestmarketfragmentintoprotectionism.The German nation state, despite being less than 150 years old, is now Europe’s

indispensable power. In economic affairs it is unrivalled, it speaks quietly but carries alarge euro-shaped stick, and the Continent listens. However, on global foreign policy itsimplyspeaksquietly,sometimesnotatall,andhasanaversiontosticks.The shadow of the SecondWorldWar still hangs over Germany. The Americans, and

eventually the West Europeans were willing to accept German rearmament due to theSoviet threat, but Germany rearmed almost reluctantly and has been loath to use itsmilitarystrength.Itplayedawalk-onpartinKosovoandAfghanistan,butchosetositouttheLibyaconflict.Itsmostseriousdiplomaticforayintoanon-economiccrisishasbeeninUkraine,which

tells us a lot about where Germany is now looking. The Germans were involved in themachinations that overthrew Ukraine’s President Yanukovych in 2014 and they were

sharplycriticalofRussia’ssubsequentannexationofCrimea.However,mindfulof thegaspipelines,Berlinwasnoticeablymore restrained in its criticismand support for sanctionsthan,forexample,theUK,whichisfarlessreliantonRussianenergy.ThroughtheEUandNATOGermanyisanchoredinWesternEurope,butinstormyweatheranchorscanslip,andBerlinisgeographicallysituatedtoshiftthefocusofitsattentioneastifrequiredandforgemuchclosertieswithMoscow.WatchingalloftheseContinentalmachinationsfromthesidelinesoftheAtlanticisthe

UK,sometimespresentontheterritoryoftheContinent,sometimesin‘splendidisolation’,alwaysfullyengagedinensuringthatnopowergreaterthanitwillriseinEurope.ThisisastruenowinthediplomaticchambersoftheEUasitwasonthebattlefieldsofAgincourt,WaterlooorBalaclava.Whenitcan,theUKinsertsitselfbetweenthegreatFranco-GermanalliancesintheEU;

failingthat,itseeksalliancesamongother,smaller,memberstatestobuildenoughvotestochallengepolicieswithwhichitdisagrees.Geographically, the Brits are in a good place.Good farmland, decent rivers, excellent

accesstotheseasandtheirfishstocks,closeenoughtotheEuropeanContinenttotradeandyetprotectedbydintofbeingan island race– therehavebeen timeswhen theUKgavethanksforitsgeographyaswarsandrevolutionssweptoveritsneighbours.TheBritishlossesin,andexperienceof,theworldwarsarenottobeunderestimated,but

they are dwarfed bywhat happened inContinental Europe in the twentieth century andindeedbeforethat.TheBritishareatoneremovefromlivingwiththehistoricalcollectivememoryoffrequentinvasionsandborderchanges.ThereisatheorythattherelativesecurityoftheUKoverthepastfewhundredyearsis

why it has experienced more freedom and less despotism than the countries across theChannel.Thetheorygoesthattherewerefewerrequirementsfor ‘strongmen’ordictatorswhich,startingwiththeMagnaCarta(1215)andthentheProvisionsofOxford(1258),ledtoformsofdemocracyyearsaheadofothercountries.Itisagoodtalkingpoint,albeitonenotprovable.Whatisundeniableisthatthewater

around the island, the trees upon it which allowed a great navy to be built, and theeconomic conditions which sparked the Industrial Revolution all led to Great Britaincontrollingaglobalempire.BritainmaybethebiggestislandinEurope,butitisnotalargecountry. The expansion of its power across the globe in the eighteenth, nineteenth andtwentiethcenturiesisremarkable,evenifitspositionhassincedeclined.Its location still grants it certain strategic advantages, one of which is the GIUK

(Greenland,IcelandandtheUK)gap.Thisisachokepointintheworld’ssealanes–itishardlyasimportantastheStraitofHormuzortheStraitofMalacca,butithastraditionally

giventheUKanadvantageintheNorthAtlantic.ThealternativeroutefornorthEuropeannavies(includingBelgium,theNetherlandsandFrance)toaccesstheAtlanticisthroughtheEnglishChannel,butthisisnarrow–only20milesacrossattheStraitofDover–andverywelldefended.AnyRussiannavalshipcomingfromtheArcticalsohastopassthroughtheGIUKonitswaytotheAtlantic.Thisstrategicadvantagehasdiminishedintandemwiththereducedroleandpowerof

theRoyalNavy,butintimeofwaritwouldagainbenefittheUK.TheGIUKisoneofmanyreasons why London flew into a panic in 2014 when, briefly, the vote on Scottishindependence looked as ifmight result in aYes. The loss of power in theNorth Sea andNorth Atlantic would have been a strategic blow and a massive dent to the prestige ofwhateverwasleftoftheUK.What theBritish have now is a collectivememory of greatness. Thatmemory iswhat

persuadesmanypeopleontheislandthatifsomethingintheworldneedstobedone,thenBritainshouldbeamongthecountrieswhichdo it.TheBritishremainwithinEurope,andyetoutsideit;itisanissuestilltobesettled.NATOis frayingat theedgesat thesame timeas is theEuropeanUnion.Bothcanbe

patchedup,butifnotthenovertimetheymaybecomeeitherdefunctorirrelevant.Atthispoint we would return to a Europe of sovereign nation states, with each state seekingalliancesinabalanceofpowersystem.TheGermanswouldagainbefearingencirclementbytheRussiansandFrench,theFrenchwouldagainbefearingtheirbiggerneighbour,andwewouldallbebackatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury.FortheFrenchthisisanightmare.TheysuccessfullyhelpedtieGermanydowninsidethe

EU,onlytofindthatafterGermanreunificationtheybecamethejuniorpartnerinatwin-enginemotortheyhadhopedtobedriving.ThisposesParisaproblemitdoesnotappeartobe able to solve. Unless it quietly accepts that Berlin calls the European shots, it risksfurtherweakening theUnion.But if it acceptsGerman leadership, then its ownpower isdiminished.Franceiscapableofanindependentforeignpolicy–indeed,withits ‘Forcedefrappe’

nucleardeterrent,itsoverseasterritoriesanditsaircraftcarrier-backedarmedforces,itdoesjustthat–butitoperatessafeintheknowledgethatitseasternflankissecureanditcanaffordtoraiseitseyestothehorizon.BothFranceandGermanyarecurrentlyworking tokeep theUnion together: they see

eachothernowasnaturalpartners.ButonlyGermanyhasaPlanB–Russia.The end of the ColdWar sawmost of the Continental powers reducing theirmilitary

budgetsandcuttingbacktheirarmedforces.IthastakentheshockoftheRussian–Georgianwar of 2008 and the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 to focus attention on the

possibilityoftheage-oldproblemofwarinEurope.NowtheRussiansregularlyflymissionsaimedattestingEuropeanairdefencesystems

andarebusyconsolidatingthemselvesinSouthOssetia,Abkhazia,Crimea,TransnistriaandeasternUkraine.TheymaintaintheirlinkswiththeethnicRussiansintheBaltics,andtheystillhavetheirexclaveofKaliningradontheBalticSea.TheEuropeanshavebegundoingsomeseriousrecalculationontheirmilitaryspending,

but there isn’t much money around, and they face difficult decisions. While they debatethosedecisionsthemapsarebeingdusteddown,andthediplomatsandmilitarystrategistssee that, while the threats of Charlemagne, Napoleon, Hitler and the Soviets may havevanished,theNorthEuropeanPlain,theCarpathians,theBalticandtheNorthSeaarestillthere.In his book Of Paradise and Power the historian Robert Kagan argues that Western

Europeansliveinparadisebutshouldn’tseektooperatebytherulesofparadiseoncetheymove out into the world of power. Perhaps, as the euro crisis diminishes and we lookaroundatparadise,itseemsinconceivablethatwecouldgobackwards;buthistorytellsushowmuchthingscanchangeinjustafewdecades,andgeographytellsusthatifhumansdonotconstantlystrivetoovercomeits‘rules’,its‘rules’willovercomeus.This iswhatHelmutKohlmeantwhenhewarned,upon leaving theChancellorshipof

Germany in 1998, that hewas the last German leader to have lived through the SecondWorldWarandthustohaveexperiencedthehorrorsitwrought.In2012hewroteanarticlefor Germany’s best-selling daily newspaper, Bild, and was clearly still haunted by thepossibility thatbecauseof the financial crisis thecurrentgenerationof leaderswouldnotnurturethepost-warexperimentinEuropeantrust: ‘Forthosewhodidn’t livethroughthisthemselves andwho especially now in the crisis are askingwhat benefits Europe’s unitybrings,theanswerdespitetheunprecedentedEuropeanperiodofpeacelastingmorethan65yearsanddespitetheproblemsanddifficultieswemuststillovercomeis:peace.’

CHAPTER5

AFRICA

‘Italwaysseemsimpossibleuntilitisdone.’NelsonMandela

A

FRICA’S COASTLINE? GREAT BEACHES, REALLY, REALLY LOVELY beaches, but terrible naturalharbours. Rivers? Amazing rivers, but most of them are rubbish for actually

transportinganything,given thatevery fewmilesyougooverawaterfall.Theseare justtwo in a long list of problems which help explain why Africa isn’t technologically orpoliticallyassuccessfulasWesternEuropeorNorthAmerica.There are lots of places that are unsuccessful, but few have been as unsuccessful as

Africa, and that despite having a head start as the placewhereHomo sapiens originatedabout200,000yearsago.Asthatmostlucidofwriters,JaredDiamond,putitinabrilliantNational Geographic article in 2005, ‘It’s the opposite of what onewould expect from therunnerfirstofftheblock.’However,thefirstrunnersbecameseparatedfromeveryoneelseby the Sahara Desert and the Indian and Atlantic oceans. Almost the entire continentdeveloped in isolation from the Eurasian land mass, where ideas and technology wereexchangedfromeasttowest,andwesttoeast,butnotnorthtosouth.Africa,beingahugecontinent,hasalwaysconsistedofdifferent regions,climatesand

cultures, but what they all had in common was their isolation from each other and theoutsideworld.Thatislessthecasenow,butthelegacyremains.Theworld’s ideaofAfricangeography is flawed.Fewpeoplerealise justhowbig it is.

This isbecausemostofususe the standardMercatorworldmap.This, asdoothermaps,depicts a sphere on a flat surface and thus distorts shapes. Africa is far, far longer thanusuallyportrayed,whichexplainswhatanachievementitwastoroundtheCapeofGoodHope, and is a reminder of the importance of the Suez Canal toworld trade.Making itaroundtheCapewasamomentousachievement,butonceitbecameunnecessarytodoso,theseajourneyfromWesternEuropetoIndiawasreducedby6,000miles.IfyoulookataworldmapandmentallyglueAlaskaontoCalifornia,thenturntheUSA

onitshead,itappearsasifitwouldroughlyfitintoAfricawithafewgapshereandthere.InfactAfricaisthreetimesbiggerthantheUSA.LookagainatthestandardMercatormapandyouseethatGreenlandappearstobethesamesizeasAfrica,andyetAfricaisactuallyfourteentimesthesizeofGreenland!YoucouldfittheUSA,Greenland,India,China,Spain,France,Germanyand theUK intoAfricaandstillhave roomformostofEasternEurope.WeknowAfricaisamassivelandmass,butthemapsrarelytellushowmassive.Thegeographyofthisimmensecontinentcanbeexplainedinseveralways,butthemost

basicistothinkofAfricaintermsofthetopthirdandbottomtwo-thirds.The top third begins on the Mediterranean coastlines of the North African Arabic-

speaking countries.The coastal plainsquicklybecome theSahara, theworld’s largest drydesert,whichisalmostasbigastheUSA.DirectlybelowtheSaharaistheSahelregion,a

semi-arid, rock-strewn, sandy stripof landmeasuringmore than3,000milesat itswidestpoints and stretching from Gambia on the Atlantic coast through Niger, Chad and rightacrosstoEritreaontheRedSea.ThewordSahelcomesfromtheArabicsahil,whichmeanscoast,and ishowthepeople living in theregionthinkof it–as theshorelineof thevastsand sea of the Sahara. It is another sort of shore, one where the influence of Islamdiminishes.FromtheSaheltotheMediterraneanthevastmajorityofpeopleareMuslims.Southofitthereisfarmorediversityinreligion.Indeed,southoftheSahel,inthebottomtwo-thirdsofAfrica,thereismorediversityin

most things. The land becomes more temperate and green vegetation appears, whichbecomesjungleasweapproachCongoandtheCentralAfricanRepublic.Towardstheeastcoast are thegreat lakes inUgandaandTanzania,while across to thewestmoredesertsappearinAngolaandNamibia.BythetimewereachthetipofSouthAfricatheclimateisagain ‘Mediterranean’, even though we have travelled almost 5,000 miles from thenorthernmostpointinTunisiaontheMediterraneancoast.GiventhatAfricaiswherehumansoriginated,weareallAfrican.However,therulesof

the race changed c.8000 BCEwhen some of us,who’dwandered off to places such as theMiddleEastandaroundtheMediterraneanregion,lostthewanderlust,settleddown,beganfarmingandeventuallycongregatedinvillagesandtowns.But back south there were few plants willing to be domesticated, and even fewer

animals.Muchofthelandconsistsofjungle,swamp,desertorsteep-sidedplateau,noneofwhichlendthemselvestothegrowingofwheatorrice,orsustainingherdsofsheep.Africa’srhinos,gazellesandgiraffesstubbornlyrefusedtobebeastsofburden–orasDiamondputsitinamemorablepassage,‘HistorymighthaveturnedoutdifferentlyifAfricanarmies,fedby barnyard-giraffemeat and backed bywaves of cavalrymounted on huge rhinos, hadsweptintoEuropetooverrunitsmutton-fedsoldiersmountedonpunyhorses.’ButAfrica’sheadstart inourmutual storydidallow itmore time todevelopsomethingelsewhich tothisdayholdsitback:avirulentsetofdiseases,suchasmalariaandyellowfever,broughton by the heat and now complicated by crowded living conditions and poor healthcareinfrastructure. This is true of other regions – the subcontinent and South America, forexample – but sub-Saharan Africa has been especially hard hit, for example by the HIVvirus, and has a particular problem because of the prevalence of the mosquito and theTsetsefly.Most of the continent’s rivers also pose a problem, as they begin in high land and

descendinabruptdropswhichthwartnavigation.Forexample,themightyZambezimaybeAfrica’s fourth-longest river, running for 1,600 miles, and may be a stunning touristattractionwith itswhite-water rapids and theVictoria Falls, but as a trade route it is of

little use. It flows through six countries, dropping from 4,900 feet to sea level when itreaches the IndianOcean inMozambique.Partsof it arenavigableby shallowboats,butthesepartsdonotinterconnect,thuslimitingthetransportationofcargo.Unlike in Europe, which has the Danube and the Rhine, this drawback has hindered

contact and trade between regions – which in turn affected economic development, andhinderedtheformationoflargetradingregions.Thecontinent’sgreatrivers,theNiger,theCongo,theZambezi,theNileandothers,don’tconnectandthisdisconnectionhasahumanfactor.WhereashugeareasofRussia,ChinaandtheUSAspeakaunifyinglanguagewhichhelpstrade,inAfricathousandsoflanguagesexistandnoonecultureemergedtodominateareasofsimilarsize.Europe,ontheotherhand,wassmallenoughtohavea‘linguafranca’throughwhichtocommunicate,andalandscapethatencouragedinteraction.Evenhadtechnologicallyproductivenationstatesarisen,muchof thecontinentwould

stillhavestruggledtoconnecttotherestoftheworldbecausethebulkofthelandmassisframedbytheIndianandAtlanticoceansandtheSaharaDesert.Theexchangeofideasandtechnologybarely touchedsub-SaharanAfrica for thousandsofyears.Despite this, severalAfricanempiresandcity statesdidariseafterabout the sixthcenturyCE: forexample theMali Empire (thirteenth–sixteenth century), and the city state of Great Zimbabwe(eleventh–fifteenth century), the latter in landbetween theZambezi and Limpopo rivers.However,theseandotherswereisolatedtorelativelysmallregionalblocs,andalthoughthemyriad cultures which did emerge across the continent may have been politicallysophisticated, thephysical landscaperemainedabarrier to technologicaldevelopment:bythe time the outside world arrived in force, most had yet to develop writing, paper,gunpowderorthewheel.Traders from theMiddle East and theMediterranean had been doing business in the

Sahara,after the introductionofcamels, fromabout2,000yearsago,notably trading thevastresourcesofsaltthere;butitwasn’tuntiltheArabconquestsoftheseventhcenturyCEthat the scene was set for a push southward. By the ninth century they had crossed theSahara,andbytheeleventhwerefirmlyestablishedasfarsouthasmodern-dayNigeria.TheArabswerealsocomingdowntheeastcoastandestablishingthemselvesinplacessuchasZanzibarandDaresSalaaminwhatisnowTanzania.When theEuropeans finallymade itdownthewestcoast in the fifteenthcentury they

found few natural harbours for their ships. Unlike Europe or North America, where thejagged coastlines give rise to deep natural harbours, much of the African coastline issmooth.Andoncetheydidmakelandtheystruggledtopenetrateanyfurtherinlandthanabout100milesdueto thedifficultyofnavigating therivers,aswellas thechallengesoftheclimateanddisease.

BoththeArabsandthentheEuropeansbroughtwith themnewtechnologywhichtheymostlykepttothemselves,andtookawaywhatevertheyfoundofvalue,whichwasmainlynaturalresourcesandpeople.Slavery existed long before the outside world returned to where it had originated.

Traders in the Sahel region used thousands of slaves to transport vast quantities of theregion’s then most valuable commodity, salt, but the Arabs began the practice ofsubcontractingAfricanslave-takingtowillingtriballeaderswhowoulddeliverthemtothecoast. By the time of the peak of the Ottoman Empire in the fifteenth and sixteenthcenturieshundredsofthousandsofAfricans(mostlyfromtheSudanregion)hadbeentakento Istanbul,Cairo,Damascus and across theArabianworld.TheEuropeans followed suit,outdoingtheArabsandTurksintheirappetitefor,andmistreatmentof,thepeoplebroughttotheslaveshipsanchoredoffthewestcoast.BackinthegreatcapitalcitiesofLondon,Paris,BrusselsandLisbon,theEuropeansthen

tookmaps of the contours of Africa’s geography and drew lines on them – or, to take amore aggressive approach, lies. In between these lines theywrotewords such asMiddleCongo or Upper Volta and called them countries. These lines were more about how farwhichpower’s explorers,military forcesandbusinessmenhadadvancedon themap thanwhat the people living between the lines felt themselves to be, or how they wanted toorganise themselves. Many Africans are now partially the prisoners of the politicalgeography the Europeans made, and of the natural barriers to progression with whichnature endowed them. From this they are making a modern home and, in some cases,vibrant,connectedeconomies.There are now fifty-six countries in Africa. Since the ‘winds of change’ of the

independence movement blew through the mid twentieth century, some of the wordsbetween the lineshavebeenaltered– for example,Rhodesia isnowZimbabwe–but thebordersare,surprisingly,mostlyintact.However,manyencompassthesamedivisionstheydidwhenfirstdrawn,andthoseformaldivisionsaresomeofthemanylegaciescolonialismbequeathedthecontinent.TheethnicconflictswithinSudan,Somalia,Kenya,Angola, theDemocraticRepublicof

theCongo,Nigeria,MaliandelsewhereareevidencethattheEuropeanideaofgeographydidnot fit the realityofAfrica’sdemographics.Theremayhavealwaysbeenconflict: theZulusandXhosashadtheirdifferences longbeforetheyhadeverseteyesonaEuropean.But colonialism forced those differences to be resolvedwithin an artificial structure – theEuropeanconceptofanationstate.Themoderncivilwarsarenowpartiallybecause thecolonialiststolddifferentnationsthattheywereonenationinonestate,andthenafterthecolonialistswere chased out a dominant people emergedwithin the statewhowanted to

ruleitall,thusensuringviolence.Take,forexample,Libya,anartificialconstructonlyafewdecadesoldwhichatthefirst

test fell apart into its previous incarnation as three distinct geographical regions. In thewest it was, in Greek times, Tripolitania (from the Greek tri polis, three cities, whicheventually merged and became Tripoli). The area to the east, centred on the city ofBenghazi but stretching down to theChad border,was known in bothGreek andRomantimesasCyrenaica.Belowthesetwo,inwhatisnowthefarsouth-westofthecountry,istheregionofFezzan.Tripolitania was always orientated north and north-west, trading with its southern

Europeanneighbours.CyrenaicaalwayslookedeasttoEgyptandtheArablands.EventheseacurrentoffthecoastoftheBenghaziregiontakesboatsnaturallyeastwards.Fezzanwastraditionallyalandofnomadswhohadlittleincommonwiththetwocoastalcommunities.ThisishowtheGreeks,RomansandTurksallruledthearea–itishowthepeoplehad

thought of themselves for centuries. The mere decades-old European idea of Libya willstruggletosurviveandalreadyoneofthemanyIslamistgroupsintheeasthasdeclaredan‘emirate of Cyrenaica’. While this may not come to pass, it is an example of how theconceptoftheregionoriginatedmerelyinlinesdrawnonmapsbyforeigners.However,oneof thebiggest failuresofEuropeanline-drawinglies inthecentreof the

continent,thegiantblackholeknownastheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo–theDRC.Hereis the landinwhichJosephConradsethisnovelHeartofDarkness,and it remainsaplace shrouded in the darkness of war. It is a prime example of how the imposition ofartificial borders can lead to aweak anddivided state, ravagedby internal conflict, andwhosemineralwealthcondemnsittobeingexploitedbyoutsiders.TheDRCisanillustrationofwhythecatch-allterm‘developingworld’isfartoobroad-

brush away todescribe countrieswhich arenot part of themodern industrialisedworld.TheDRCisnotdeveloping,nordoesitshowanysignsofsodoing.TheDRCshouldneverhavebeenputtogether;ithasfallenapartandisthemostunder-reportedwarzoneintheworld,despitethefactthatsixmillionpeoplehavediedthereduringwarswhichhavebeenfoughtsincethelate1990s.TheDRCisneitherdemocratic,norarepublic.Itisthesecond-largestcountryinAfrica

withapopulationofabout75million,althoughduetothesituationthere it isdifficult tofindaccuratefigures.ItisbiggerthanGermany,FranceandSpaincombinedandcontainstheCongoRainforest,secondonlytotheAmazonasthelargestintheworld.Thepeoplearedividedintomorethan200ethnicgroups,ofwhichthebiggestarethe

Bantu.Thereareseveralhundredlanguages,butthewidespreaduseofFrenchbridgesthatgaptoadegree.TheFrenchcomesfromtheDRC’syearsasaBelgiancolony(1908–60)and

beforethatwhenKingLeopoldoftheBelgiansuseditashispersonalpropertyfromwhichtostealitsnaturalresourcestolinehispockets.BelgiancolonialrulemadetheBritishandFrenchversions lookpositivelybenignandwasruthlesslybrutal fromstart to finish,withfewattemptstobuildanysortofinfrastructuretohelptheinhabitants.WhentheBelgianswentin1960theyleftbehindlittlechanceofthecountryholdingtogether.Thecivilwarsbeganimmediatelyandwerelaterintensifiedbyablood-soakedwalk-on

roleintheglobalColdWar.Thegovernmentinthecapital,Kinshasa,backedtherebelsideinAngola’swar,thusbringingitselftotheattentionoftheUSA,whichwasalsosupportingthe rebelmovement against the Soviet-backedAngolan government. Each side poured inhundredsofmillionsofdollars’worthofarms.When the Cold War ended both great powers had less interest in what by then was

called Zaire and the country staggered on, kept afloat by its natural resources. The RiftValley curves into the DRC in its south and east and it has exposed huge quantities ofcobalt,copper,diamonds,gold,silver,zinc,coal,manganeseandotherminerals,especiallyinKatangaProvince.InKingLeopold’sdays theworldwanted the region’s rubber for the expandingmotor

car industry; now China buys more than 50 per cent of the DRC’s exports, but still thepopulationlivesinpoverty.In2014theUnitedNationsHumanDevelopmentIndexplacedtheDRC186thoutof187countriesitmeasured.ThebottomeighteencountriesinthatlistareallinAfrica.Becauseitissoresource-richandsolarge,everyonewantsabiteoutoftheDRC,which,

asitlacksasubstantivecentralauthority,cannotreallybiteback.Theregionisalsoborderedbyninecountries.TheyhaveallplayedaroleintheDRC’s

agony,whichisonereasonwhytheCongowarsarealsoknownas‘Africa’sworldwar’.TothesouthisAngola,tothenorththeRepublicoftheCongoandtheCentralAfricaRepublic,totheeastUganda,Rwanda,Burundi,TanzaniaandZambia.Therootsofthewarsgobackdecades,buttheworstoftimeswastriggeredbythedisasterthathitRwandain1994andsweptwestwardinitsaftermath.AfterthegenocideinRwandatheTutsisurvivorsandmoderateHutusformedaTutsi-led

government.Thekillingmachinesof theHutumilitia, the Interahamwe, fled intoeasternDRCbutconductedborderraids.TheyalsojoinedwithsectionsoftheDRCarmytokilltheDRC’sTutsis,wholiveneartheborderregion.IncametheRwandanandUgandanarmies,backed by Burundi and Eritrea. Allied with opposition militias, they attacked theInterahamweandoverthrew theDRCgovernment.Theyalsowenton to controlmuchofthecountry’snaturalwealth,withRwandainparticularshippingbacktonsofcoltan,whichisusedinthemakingofmobilephonesandcomputerchips.However,whathadbeenthe

government forces did not give up and – with the involvement of Angola, Namibia andZimbabwe–continuedthefight.Thecountrybecameavastbattleground,withmorethantwentyfactionsinvolvedinthefighting.Thewarshavekilled,atalowestimate,tensofthousandsofpeople,andhaveresulted

inthedeathsofanothersixmillionduetodiseaseandmalnutrition.TheUNestimatesthatalmost50percentofthevictimshavebeenchildrenagedunderfive.In recent years the fighting has died down, but the DRC is home to theworld’smost

deadlyconflictsincetheSecondWorldWarandstillrequirestheUN’slargestpeacekeepingmission to prevent full-scale war from breaking out again. Now the job is not to putHumptyDumptytogetheragain,becausetheDRCwasneverwhole.Itissimplytokeepthepiecesapartuntilawaycanbefoundtojointhemsensiblyandpeacefully.TheEuropeancolonialist created an egg without a chicken, a logical absurdity repeated across thecontinentandonethatcontinuestohauntit.Africahasbeenequallycursedandblessedbyitsresources–blessedinsofarasithas

natural riches in abundance, but cursed because outsiders have long plundered them. Inmore recent times the nation states have been able to claim a share of these riches, andforeign countries now invest rather than steal, but still the people are rarely thebeneficiaries.Inadditiontoitsnaturalmineralwealth,Africaisalsoblessedwithmanygreatrivers–

although most of its rivers do not encourage trade, they are good for hydroelectricity.However,thistooisasourceofpotentialconflict.TheNile,thelongestriverintheworld(4,100miles),affectstencountriesconsideredto

be in the proximity of its basin – Burundi, the DRC, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda,Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Egypt. As long ago as the fifth century BCE the historianHerodotussaid: ‘EgyptistheNile,andtheNileisEgypt.’Itisstilltrue,andsoathreattothe supply to Egypt’s 700-mile-long, fully navigable section of the Nile is for Cairo aconcern–oneoverwhichitwouldbepreparedtogotowar.WithouttheNile,therewouldbenoonethere.Itmaybeahugecountry,butthevastmajorityofits84millionpopulationliveswithinafewmilesoftheNile.Measuredbytheareainwhichpeopledwell,Egyptisoneofthemostdenselypopulatedcountriesintheworld.Egyptwas,arguably,anationstatewhenmostEuropeanswerelivinginmudhuts,but

itwasonlyeveraregionalpower.ItisprotectedbydesertsonthreesidesandmighthavebecomeagreatpowerintheMediterraneanregionbutforoneproblem.Therearehardlyany trees inEgypt, and formost of history, if youdidn’t have trees you couldn’t build agreatnavywithwhichtoprojectyourpower.TherehasalwaysbeenanEgyptiannavy–itusedtoimportcedarfromLebanontobuildshipsathugeexpense–butithasneverbeena

BlueWaternavy.ModernEgyptnowhasthemostpowerfularmedforcesofalltheArabstates,thanksto

Americanmilitaryaid;butitremainscontainedbydeserts,theseaanditspeacetreatywithIsrael. Itwill remain in thenewsas it struggles tocopewith feeding84millionpeopleadaywhile battling an Islamist insurgency, especially in the Sinai, and guarding the SuezCanal,throughwhichpasses8percentoftheworld’sentiretradeeveryday.Some2.5percentoftheworld’soilpassesthiswaydaily;closingthecanalwouldaddaboutfifteendays’transittimetoEuropeandtentotheUSA,withconcurrentcosts.Despite having fought fivewarswith Israel, the country Egypt ismost likely to come

intoconflictwithnext isEthiopia,and the issue is theNile.Twoof thecontinent’soldestcountries, with the largest armies,may come to blows over the region’smajor source ofwater.The Blue Nile, which begins in Ethiopia, and the White Nile meet in the Sudanese

capital,Khartoum,beforeflowingthroughtheNubianDesertandintoEgypt.BythispointthemajorityofthewaterisfromtheBlueNile.Ethiopiaissometimescalled‘Africa’swatertower’duetoitshighelevationandhasmore

than twentydams fedby the rainfall in its highlands. In2011AddisAbabaannouncedajointprojectwithChinatobuildamassivehydroelectricprojectontheBlueNileneartheSudanesebordercalledtheGrandRenaissanceDam,scheduledtobefinishedby2020.Thedamwillbeusedtocreateelectricity,andtheflowtoEgyptshouldcontinue;butintheorythedamcouldalsoholdayear’sworthofwater,andcompletionoftheprojectwouldgiveEthiopiathepotentialtoholdthewaterforitsownuse,thusdrasticallyreducingtheflowintoEgypt.As things standEgypt has amore powerfulmilitary, but that is slowly changing, and

Ethiopia,a countryof96millionpeople, isagrowingpower.Cairoknows this,andalsothat once the dam is built, destroying it would create a flooding catastrophe in bothEthiopiaandSudan.However,atthemomentitdoesnothaveacasusbellitostrikebeforecompletion,anddespitethefactthataCabinetministerwasrecentlycaughtonmicrophonerecommending bombing, the next few years are more likely to see intense negotiations,withEgyptwantingcast-ironguaranteesthattheflowwillbeneverbestopped.Waterwarsareconsideredtobeamongthecomingconflictsthiscenturyandthisisonetowatch.Anotherhotlycontestedliquidisoil.Nigeriaissub-SaharanAfrica’slargestproducerofoil,andallofthishigh-qualityoilisin

the south. Nigerians in the north complain that the profits from that oil are not sharedequitably across the country’s regions. This in turn exacerbates the ethnic and religioustensionsbetweenthepeoplesfromtheNigeriandeltaandthoseinthenorth-east.

By size, population and natural resources, Nigeria is West Africa’s most powerfulcountry.Itisthecontinent’smostpopulousnation,with177millionpeople,whichwithitssize and natural resources makes it the leading regional power. It is formed from theterritories of several ancient kingdoms which the British brought together as anadministrativearea.In1898theydrewupa‘BritishProtectorateontheRiverNiger’whichinturnbecameNigeria.Itmaynowbeanindependentregionalpowerhouse,butitspeopleandresourceshave

beenmismanagedfordecades. Incolonial times theBritishpreferredtostay in thesouth-westernareaalongthecoast.Their ‘civilising’missionrarelyextendedtothehighlandsofthe centre, nor up to the Muslim populations in the north, and this half of the countryremains lessdevelopedthanthesouth.Muchof themoneymadefromoil isspentpayingoffthemoversandshakers inNigeria’scomplextribalsystem.Theonshoreoil industryinthedeltaisalsobeingthreatenedbytheMovementfortheEmancipationoftheNigerDelta,afancynameforagroupwhichdoesoperateinaregiondevastatedbytheoilindustry,butwhichusesitasacoverforterrorismandextortion.Thekidnappingofforeignoilworkersismakingitalessandlessattractiveplacetodobusiness.Theoffshoreoilfieldsaremostlyfreeofthisactivityandthatiswheretheinvestmentisheading.The Islamist group Boko Haram, which wants to establish a caliphate in the Muslim

areas,hasused the senseof injusticeengenderedbyunderdevelopment togainground inthenorth.BokoHaramfightersareusuallyethnicKanurisfromthenorth-east.Theyrarelyoperateoutsideoftheirhometerritory,notevenventuringwesttotheHausaregion,andcertainly not way down south to the coastal areas. This means that when the Nigerianmilitarycome looking for themBokoHaramareoperatingonhomeground.Muchof thelocalpopulationwillnotco-operatewiththemilitary,eitherforfearofreprisalorduetoasharedresentmentofthesouth.TheterritorytakenbyBokoHaramdoesnotyetendangertheexistenceofthestateof

Nigeria. The group does not even pose a threat to the capital Abuja, despite it beingsituatedhalfwayupthecountry;buttheydoposeadailythreattopeopleinthenorthandtheydamageNigeria’sreputationabroadasaplacetodobusiness.Most of the villages they have captured are on the Mandara mountain range, which

backsontoCameroon.Thismeansthenationalarmyisoperatingalongwayfromitsbases,andcannotsurroundaBokoHaramforce.Cameroon’sgovernmentdoesnotwelcomeBokoHaram,but thecountrysidegives the fightersspacetoretreat to if required.Thesituationwillnotburn itselfout for severalyears,duringwhich timeBokoHaramwill try to formallianceswiththejihadistsupnorthintheSahelregion.TheAmericansandFrenchhavetrackedtheproblemforseveralyearsandnowoperate

surveillance drones in response to the growing threat of violence projecting out of theSahel/Sahara region and connecting with northern Nigeria. The Americans use severalbases,includingtheoneinDjiboutiwhichispartoftheUSAfricaCommand,setupin2007,andtheFrenchhaveaccesstoconcreteinvariouscountriesinwhattheycall‘FrancophoneAfrica’.Thedangers of the threat spreading across several countries has been awake-up call.

Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad are all now involvedmilitarily and co-ordinating with theAmericansandFrench.Further south, down the Atlantic coast, is sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil

producer–Angola.The formerPortuguesecolony isoneof theAfricannationstateswithnaturalgeographicalborders. It is framedbytheAtlanticOceanto thewest,by jungle tothenorthanddeserttothesouth,whiletheeasternregionsaresparselypopulatedruggedlandwhichactsasabufferzonewiththeDRCandZambia.Themajorityofthe22million-strongpopulationliveinthewesternhalf,whichiswell

watered and can sustain agriculture; and off the coast in the west lie most of Angola’soilfields.The rigsout in theAtlantic aremostlyownedbyAmerican companies, butoverhalfoftheoutputendsupinChina.ThismakesAngola(dependentontheebbandflowofsales) second only to Saudi Arabia as the biggest supplier of crude oil to the MiddleKingdom.Angolaisanothercountryfamiliarwithconflict.Itswarforindependenceendedin1975

when the Portuguese gave up, but it instantly morphed into a civil war between tribesdisguisedasacivilwarover ideology.RussiaandCubasupportedthe ‘socialists’, theUSAandapartheidSouthAfricabackedthe‘rebels’.MostofthesocialistsoftheMPLA(PopularMovementfortheLiberationofAngola)werefromtheMbundutribe,whiletheoppositionrebel fightersweremostly from twoothermain tribes, theBakongo and theOvimbundu.TheirpoliticaldisguisewasastheFNLA(NationalLiberationFrontofAngola)andUNITA(NationalUnionfortheTotalIndependenceofAngola).Manyofthecivilwarsofthe1960sand 1970s followed this template: if Russia backed a particular side, that side wouldsuddenlyrememberthatithadsocialistprincipleswhileitsopponentswouldbecomeanti-Communist.The Mbundu had the geographical but not the numerical advantage. They held the

capital, Luanda, had access to the oilfields and the main river, the Kwanza, and werebackedbycountrieswhichcouldsupplythemwithRussianarmsandCubansoldiers.Theyprevailed in 2002 and their top echelons immediately undermined their own somewhatquestionablesocialistcredentialsbyjoiningthelonglistofcolonialandAfricanleaderswhoenrichedthemselvesattheexpenseofthepeople.

This sorry history of domestic and foreign exploitation continues in the twenty-firstcentury.Aswe’veseen,theChineseareeverywhere,theymeanbusinessandtheyarenowevery

bit as involved across the continent as the Europeans and Americans. About a third ofChina’soilimportscomefromAfrica,which–alongwiththepreciousmetalstobefoundinmanyAfricancountries–meanstheyhavearrived,andwillstay.EuropeanandAmericanoilcompaniesandbigmultinationalsarestillfarmoreheavilyinvolvedinAfrica,butChinaisquicklycatchingup.Forexample,inLiberiaitisseekingironore,intheDRCandZambiait’sminingcopperand,alsointheDRC,cobalt.IthasalreadyhelpedtodeveloptheKenyanportofMombasaandisnowembarkingonmorehugeprojectsjustasKenya’soilassetsarebeginningtobecomecommerciallyviable.China’s state-ownedChinaRoad and Bridge Corporation is building a $14 billion rail

projecttoconnectMombasatothecapitalcityofNairobi.Analystssaythetimetakenforgoodstotravelbetweenthetwocitieswillbereducedfromthirty-sixhourstoeighthours,with a corresponding cut of 60 per cent in transport costs. There are even plans to linkNairobiuptoSouthSudan,andacrosstoUgandaandRwanda.Kenyaintends,withChinesehelp,tobetheeconomicpowerhouseoftheeasternseaboard.Over the southernborderTanzania is tryinga rivalbid tobecomeEastAfrica’s leader

and has concluded billions of dollars’ worth of deals with the Chinese on infrastructureprojects. It has also signed a joint agreement with China and an Omani constructioncompanytooverhaulandextendtheportofBagamoyo,asthemainportinDaresSalaamisseverelycongested.ItisplannedthatBagamoyowillbeabletohandle20millioncargocontainers a year,whichwillmake it the biggest port inAfrica. Tanzania also has goodtransportlinksinthe‘SouthernAgriculturalGrowthCorridorofTanzania’andisconnectingdownintothefifteen-nationSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity.ThisinturnlinksintotheNorth–SouthCorridor,whichconnectstheportofDurbantothecopperregionsofDRCandZambiawithspurslinkingtheportofDaresSalaamtoDurbanandMalawi.Despite this,Tanzania looksas if itwillbethesecond-tierpoweralongtheeastcoast.

Kenya’seconomyisthepowerhouseinthefive-nationEastAfricanCommunity,accountingforabout40percentoftheregion’sGDP.ItmayhavelessarablelandthanTanzania,butituseswhatithasmuchmoreefficiently.Itsindustrialsystemisalsomoreefficient,asisitssystem of getting goods tomarket – both domestic and international. If it canmaintainpolitical stability it looksdestined to remain thedominant regionalpower in thenear tomediumterm.China’s presence also stretches into Niger, with the Chinese National Petroleum

CorporationinvestinginthesmalloilfieldintheTénéréfieldsinthecentreofthecountry.

AndChineseinvestmentinAngolaoverthepastdecadeexceeds$8billionandisgrowingeveryyear.TheChineseRailwayEngineeringCorporation(CREC)hasalreadyspentalmost$2billionmodernisingtheBenguelarailwaylinewhichlinkstheDRCtotheAngolanportof Lobito on the Atlantic coast 800 miles away. This way come the cobalt, copper andmanganesewithwhichKatangaProvinceintheDRCiscursedandblessed.In Luanda CREC is constructing a new international airport, and around the capital

huge apartment blocks built to the Chinesemodel have sprung up to house some of theestimated 150,000–200,000 Chinese workers now in the country. Thousands of theseworkersarealsotrainedinmilitaryskillsandcouldprovideaready-mademilitiaifChinasorequired.WhatBeijingwantsinAngolaiswhatitwantseverywhere:thematerialswithwhichto

makeitsproducts,andpoliticalstabilitytoensuretheflowofthosematerialsandproducts.SoifPresidentJoséEduardodosSantos,whohasbeeninchargeforthirty-sixyears,decidedtopayMariahCarey$1milliontosingathisbirthdaypartyin2013,that’shisaffair.AndiftheMbundu,towhichdosSantosbelongs,continuetodominate,thatistheirs.ChineseinvolvementisanattractivepropositionformanyAfricangovernments.Beijing

andthebigChinesecompaniesdon’taskdifficultquestionsabouthumanrights,theydon’tdemand economic reform or even suggest that certain African leaders stop stealing theircountries’wealthas the IMForWorldBankmight.Forexample,China isSudan’sbiggesttradingpartner,whichgoessomewaytoexplainingwhyChinaconsistentlyprotectsSudanattheUNSecurityCouncilandcontinuedtobackitsPresidentOmaral-BashirevenwhentherewasanarrestwarrantoutforhimissuedbytheInternationalCriminalCourt.WesterncriticismofthisgetsshortshriftinBeijing,however;itisregardedassimplyanotherpowerplay aimed at stopping China doing business, and hypocrisy given theWest’s history inAfrica.AlltheChinesewantistheoil,theminerals,thepreciousmetalsandthemarkets.Thisis

an equitable government-to-government relationship, but we will see increasing tensionbetween local populations and the Chinese workforces often brought in to assist the bigprojects.ThisinturnmaydrawBeijingmoreintothelocalpolitics,andrequireittohavesomesortofminormilitarypresenceinvariouscountries.SouthAfricaisChina’slargesttradingpartnerinAfrica.Thetwocountrieshavealong

politicalandeconomichistoryandarewellplacedtoworktogether.HundredsofChinesecompanies,bothstateownedandprivate,nowoperateinDurban,Johannesburg,Pretoria,CapeTownandPortElizabeth.SouthAfrica’s economy is ranked second-biggeston the continentbehindNigeria. It is

certainly the powerhouse in the south in terms of its economy (three times the size of

Angola’s),militaryandpopulation(53million).SouthAfricaismoredevelopedthanmanyAfricannations,thankstoitslocationattheverysoutherntipofthecontinentwithaccesstotwooceans,itsnaturalwealthofgold,silverandcoalandaclimateandlandthatallowforlarge-scalefoodproduction.Becauseitislocatedsofarsouth,andthecoastalplainquicklyrisesintohighland,South

AfricaisoneoftheveryfewAfricancountriesthatdonotsufferfromthecurseofmalaria,asmosquitoesfinditdifficulttobreedthere.ThisallowedtheEuropeancolonialiststopushintoitsinteriormuchfurtherandfasterthaninthemalaria-riddledtropics,settle,andbeginsmall-scale industrial activity which grew into what is now southern Africa’s biggesteconomy.FormostofSouthernAfrica,doingbusinesswiththeoutsideworldmeansdoingbusiness

withPretoria,BloemfonteinandCapeTown.South Africa has used its natural wealth and location to tie its neighbours into its

transportsystem,meaningthere isatwo-wayrailandroadconveyerbeltstretchingfromtheportsinEastLondon,CapeTown,PortElizabethandDurbanstretchingnorththroughZimbabwe,Botswana,Zambia,MalawiandTanzania,reachingevenintoKatangaProvinceoftheDRCandeastwardintoMozambique.ThenewChinese-builtrailwayfromKatangatotheAngolancoasthasbeen laid tochallenge thisdominance andmight take some trafficfromtheDRC,butSouthAfricalooksdestinedtomaintainitsadvantages.DuringtheapartheidyearstheANC(AfricanNationalCongress)backedAngola’sMPLA

in its fight against Portuguese colonisation.However, the passion of a shared struggle isturning intoacooler relationshipnowthateachpartycontrols its respectivecountryandcompetesata regional level.Angolahasa longwaytogo tocatchupwithSouthAfrica.This will not be a military confrontation: South Africa’s dominance is near-total. It haslarge,well-equipped armed forces comprising about 100,000 personnel, dozens of fighterjetsandattackhelicopters,aswellasseveralmodernsubmarinesandfrigates.InthedaysoftheBritishEmpire,controllingSouthAfricameantcontrollingtheCapeof

GoodHopeandthusthesealanesbetweentheAtlanticandIndianoceans.Modernnaviescanventuremuch furtherout fromthesouthernAfricancoastline if theywish topassby,buttheCapeisstillacommandingpieceofrealestateontheworldmapandSouthAfricaisacommandingpresenceinthewholeofthebottomthirdofthecontinent.ThereisanewscrambleforAfricainthiscentury,butthistimeitistwo-pronged.There

arethewell-publicisedoutsideinterests,andmeddling,inthecompetitionforresources,butthereisalsothe‘scramblewithin’,andSouthAfricaintendstoscramblefastestandfurthest.Itdominates the fifteen-nationSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity (SADC)and

hasmanagedtogainapermanentplaceattheInternationalConferenceontheGreatLakes

Region, of which it is not even a member. The SADC is rivalled by the East AfricanCommunity(EAC)comprisingBurundi,Kenya,Rwanda,UgandaandTanzania.Thelatterisalsoamemberof theSADCand theotherEACmembers takeadimviewof its flirtationwith South Africa. For its part South Africa appears to view Tanzania as its vehicle forgaininggreaterinfluenceintheGreatLakesregionandbeyond.TheSouthAfricanNationalDefenceForcehasabrigadeintheDRCofficiallyunderthe

commandoftheUN,butitwassenttherebyitspoliticalmasterstoensurethatSouthAfricaisnot leftoutfromthespoilsofwarinthatmineral-richcountry.Thishasbroughtit intocompetition with Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda, which have their own ideas about whoshouldbeinchargeintheDRC.The Africa of the pastwas given no choice – its geography shaped it – and then the

Europeans engineered most of today’s borders. Now, with its booming populations anddeveloping mega-cities, it has no choice but to embrace the modern globalised world towhichit issoconnected.Inthis,despitealltheproblemswehaveseen,it ismakinghugestrides.Thesameriversthathamperedtradearenowharnessedforhydroelectricpower.From

the earth that struggled to sustain large-scale food production come minerals and oil,makingsomecountriesricheveniflittleofthewealthreachesthepeople.Nevertheless,inmost,butnotall,countriespovertyhasfallenashealthcareandeducationlevelshaverisen.Many countries are English-speaking, which in an English-language-dominated globaleconomy is an advantage, and the continenthas seen economic growthovermost of thepastdecade.Onthedownside,economicgrowthinmanycountriesisdependentonglobalpricesfor

minerals and energy.Countrieswhosenational budgets arepredicatedon receiving$100dollarsperbarrelofoil,forexample,havelittletofallbackonwhenpricesdropto$80or$60.Manufacturing output levels are close towhere theywere in the 1970s. Corruptionremains rampant across the continent, and as well as the few ‘hot’ conflicts (Somalia,Nigeria,Sudan,forexample)thereareseveralmorethataremerelyfrozen.Nevertheless, every year more roads and railways are being built connecting this

incrediblydiversespace.ThevastdistancesoftheoceansanddesertsseparatingAfricafromeverywherehavebeenovercomebyairtravel,andindustrialmusclehascreatedharboursinplacesnaturehadnotintendedthemtobe.Ineverydecadesincethe1960soptimistshavewrittenabouthowAfricaisonthebrink

ofprevailingoverthehandhistoryandnaturehavedealtit.Perhapsthistimeitistrue.Itneedstobe.Sub-SaharanAfricacurrentlyholds1.1billionpeople,bysomeestimates–by2050thatmayhavemorethandoubledto2.4billion.

CHAPTER6

THEMIDDLEEAST

‘We’vebrokenSykes-Picot!’IslamicStatefighter,2014

T

HEMIDDLEOFWHAT?EASTOFWHERE?THEREGION’SVERYnameisbasedonaEuropeanviewoftheworld,anditisaEuropeanviewoftheregionthatshapedit.TheEuropeansused

inktodrawlinesonmaps:theywerelinesthatdidnotexistinrealityandcreatedsomeofthemost artificial borders theworld has seen. An attempt is now beingmade to redrawtheminblood.OneofthemostimportantpiecesofvideotoemergefromtheMiddleEastin2014was

overshadowed that year by footage of explosions and beheadings. It is a piece of slickpropagandaby Islamic State and shows abulldozerwiping, or ratherpushing, the Iraqi–Syrianborderoutofexistence.Theborderissimplyahighbermofsand.Movethesandandthebordernolongerphysicallyexists.This‘line’stillexistsintheory.Thenextfewyearswilldeterminewhether thewords of the Islamic State fighter quoted above are prophetic, ormere bravado: ‘We are destroying the borders and breaking the barriers. Thanks be toAllah.’After the First World War, there were fewer borders in the wider Middle East than

currentlyexist,andthosethatdidexistwereusuallydeterminedbygeographyalone.Thespaceswithinthemwerelooselysubdividedandgovernedaccordingtogeography,ethnicityandreligion,buttherewasnoattempttocreatenationstates.The Greater Middle East extends across 1,000 miles, west to east, from the

MediterraneanSeatothemountainsofIran.Fromnorthtosouth, ifwestartattheBlackSeaandendontheshoresoftheArabianSeaoffOman,itis2,000mileslong.Theregionincludesvastdeserts, oases, snow-coveredmountains, long rivers, great cities andcoastalplains.Andithasagreatdealofnaturalwealthintheformthateveryindustrialisedandindustrialisingcountryaroundtheworldneeds–oilandgas.ItalsocontainsthefertileregionknownasMesopotamia,the‘landbetweentherivers’

(theEuphratesandTigris).However,themostdominantfeatureisthevastArabianDesertandscrublandinitscentrewhichtouchespartsofIsrael,Jordan,Syria,Iraq,Kuwait,Oman,YemenandmostofSaudiArabiaincludingtheRub’alKhalior‘EmptyQuarter’.Thisisthelargestcontinuoussanddesertintheworld,incorporatinganareathesizeofFrance.It isdue to this feature not only that themajority of the inhabitants of the region live on itsperiphery, but also that until European colonisationmost of the peoplewithin it did notthinkintermsofnationstatesandlegallyfixedborders.The notion that aman from a certain area could not travel across a region to see a

relativefromthesametribeunlesshehadadocument,grantedtohimbyathirdmanhedidn’tknowina farawaytown,made littlesense.The idea that thedocumentwas issuedbecause a foreignerhad said the areawasnow two regions andhadmadeupnames for

themmadeno sense at all andwas contrary to theway inwhich lifehadbeen lived forcenturies.The Ottoman Empire (1299–1922) was ruled from Istanbul. At its height it stretched

fromthegatesofVienna,acrossAnatoliaanddown throughArabia to the IndianOcean.Fromwest to east it took inwhat are nowAlgeria, Libya, Egypt, Israel/Palestine, Syria,Jordan,IraqandpartsofIran.Ithadneverbotheredtomakeupnamesformostoftheseregions;in1867itsimplydividedthemintoadministrativeareasknownas‘Vilayets’,whichwereusuallybasedonwherecertaintribeslived,betheytheKurdsinpresent-dayNorthernIraq,orthetribalfederationsinwhatisnowpartofSyriaandpartofIraq.When the Ottoman Empire began to collapse, the British and French had a different

idea. In 1916 the British diplomat Colonel SirMark Sykes took a chinagraph pencil anddrewacrudelineacrossamapoftheMiddleEast.ItranfromHaifaontheMediterraneaninwhat isnowIsraeltoKirkuk(nowinIraq) inthenorth-east. Itbecamethebasisofhissecret agreementwith his French counterpart FrançoisGeorges-Picot to divide the regioninto twospheresof influenceshould theTripleEntentedefeat theOttomanEmpire in theFirstWorldWar.NorthofthelinewastobeunderFrenchcontrol,southofitunderBritishhegemony.Theterm‘Sykes-Picot’hasbecomeshorthandforthevariousdecisionsmadeinthefirst

third of the twentieth centurywhichbetrayedpromises given to tribal leaders andwhichpartially explain the unrest and extremism of today. This explanation can be overstated,though: therewas violence and extremismbefore theEuropeans arrived.Nevertheless, aswesawinAfrica,arbitrarilycreating‘nationstates’outofpeopleunusedtolivingtogetherinoneregionisnotarecipeforjustice,equalityandstability.Prior toSykes-Picot (in itswider sense), therewasno stateof Syria,noLebanon,nor

werethereJordan,Iraq,SaudiArabia,Kuwait,IsraelorPalestine.Modernmapsshowthebordersandthenamesofnationstates,buttheyareyoungandtheyarefragile.IslamisthedominantreligionoftheMiddleEast,butcontainswithinitmanydifferent

versions.ThemostimportantdivisionwithinIslamisalmostasoldasthereligionitself:thesplitbetweenSunniandShiaMuslimsdatesbackto632CEwhentheprophetMuhammaddied,leadingtoadisputeoverhissuccession.The Sunni Muslims form the majority among Arabs, and indeed among the world’s

Muslimpopulation, comprisingperhaps85percentof the total,althoughwithin someofthe Arab countries the percentages are less distinct. The name comes from ‘Al Sunna’ or‘peopleoftradition’.UponthedeathoftheProphet,thosewhowouldbecomeSunniarguedthathissuccessorshouldbechosenusingArabtribaltraditions.TheyregardthemselvesasOrthodoxMuslims.

ThewordShiaderivesfrom‘ShiatAli’,literally‘thepartyofAli’,andreferstotheson-in-lawoftheProphetMuhammad.AliandhissonsHassanandHusseinwereallassassinatedandthusdeniedwhattheShiafeelwastheirbirthright–toleadtheIslamiccommunity.Fromthissprangseveraldoctrinaldisputesandculturalpracticesdividingthetwomain

branchesofIslamthathaveledtodisputesandwarfare,althoughtherehavealsobeenlongperiodsofpeacefulcoexistence.Therearealsodivisionswithinthedivision.Forexample,therearevariousbranchesof

SunniIslamthatfollowparticulargreatscholarsfromthepast,includingthestrictHanbalitradition,namedaftertheninth-centuryIraqischolarAhmadibnHanbal,favouredbymanySunnisfromQatarandSaudiArabia;thisinturnhasinfluencedtheultra-puritanicalSalafithought,whichpredominatesamongjihadists.ShiaIslamhasthreemaindivisions,thebestknownofwhichisprobablytheTwelvers,

who adhere to the teaching of the Twelve Imams, but even that contains divisions. TheIsmailischooldisputesthelineageoftheseventhImam,whiletheZaidischooldisputesthatof the fifth Imam.There are also several offshoots frommainstreamShia Islam,with theAlawites(Alawis)andDruzebeingconsideredsofarawayfromtraditionalIslamicthoughtthatmanyotherMuslims,especiallyamongtheSunni,donotevenrecognisethemasbeingpartofthereligion.ThelegacyofEuropeancolonialismlefttheArabsgroupedintonationstatesandruled

by leaders who tended to favour whichever branch of Islam (and tribe) they themselvescamefrom.ThesedictatorsthenusedthemachineryofstatetoensuretheirwritruledovertheentireareawithintheartificiallinesdrawnbytheEuropeans,regardlessofwhetherthiswas historically appropriate and fair to the different tribes and religions that had beenthrowntogether.Iraq isaprimeexampleof theensuingconflictsandchaos.Themore religiousamong

the Shia never accepted that a Sunni-led government should have control over their holycitiessuchasNajafandKarbala,wheretheirmartyrsAliandHusseinaresaidtobeburied.Thesecommunalfeelingsgobackcenturies;afewdecadesofbeingcalled‘Iraqis’wasnevergoingtodilutesuchemotions.AsrulersoftheOttomanEmpiretheTurkssawarugged,mountainousareadominated

byKurds,then,asthemountainsfellawayintotheflatlandsleadingtowardsBaghdad,andwesttowhatisnowSyria,theysawaplacewherethemajorityofpeoplewereSunniArabs.Finally,afterthetwogreatriverstheTigrisandtheEuphratesmergedandrandowntotheShattal-Arabwaterway,themarshlandsandthecityofBasra,theysawmoreArabs,mostofwhomwere Shia. They ruled this space accordingly, dividing it into three administrativeregions:Mosul,BaghdadandBasra.

In antiquity, the regions very roughly corresponding to the above were known asAssyria,BabyloniaandSumer.WhenthePersianscontrolledthespacetheydivideditinasimilarway,asdidAlexandertheGreat,andlatertheUmayyadEmpire.TheBritishlookedat the same area and divided the three into one, a logical impossibility Christians canresolvethroughtheHolyTrinity,butwhichinIraqhasresultedinanunholymess.Many analysts say that only a strong man could unite these three areas into one

country,andIraqhadonestrongmanafteranother.Butinrealitythepeoplewereneverunified,theywereonlyfrozenwithfear.Intheoneplacewhichthedictatorscouldnotsee,people’sminds, fewbought into thepropagandaof the state,wallpaperingas itdidoverthe systematic persecution of the Kurds, the domination by Saddam’s SunniMuslim clanfromhishometownofTikrit,northemassslaughteroftheShiaaftertheirfaileduprisingin1991.The Kurds were the first to leave. The smallest minorities in a dictatorship will

sometimespretend tobelieve thepropaganda that their rightsareprotectedbecause theylackthestrengthtodoanythingabout thereality.Forexample, Iraq’sChristianminority,anditshandfulofJews,felttheymightbesaferkeepingquietinaseculardictatorship,suchas Saddam’s, than risk change and what they feared might, and indeed has, followed.However, the Kurds were geographically defined and, crucially, numerous enough to beabletoreactwhentherealityofdictatorshipbecametoomuch.Iraq’s fivemillion Kurds are concentrated in the north and northeastern provinces of

Irbil,SulaymaniyahandDahukandtheirsurroundingareas.Itisagiantcrescentofmostlyhillsandmountains,whichmeanttheKurdsretainedtheirdistinctidentitydespiterepeatedcultural andmilitary attacks against them, suchas the al-Anfal campaignof 1988,whichincluded aerial gas attacks against villages. During the eight-stage campaign, Saddam’sforcestooknoprisonersandkilledallmalesagedbetweenfifteenandfiftythattheycameacross.Upto100,000Kurdsweremurderedand90percentoftheirvillageswipedoffthemap.When in 1990 SaddamHussein over-reached into Kuwait, the Kurdswent on to seize

their chance tomakehistory and turnKurdistan into the reality they had been promisedaftertheFirstWorldWarintheTreatyofSèvres(1920),butnevergranted.AtthetailendoftheGulfWarconflicttheKurdsroseup,theAlliedforcesdeclareda‘safezone’intowhichIraqi forces were not allowed, and a de facto Kurdistan began to take shape. The 2003invasionofIraqbytheUSAcementedwhatappearstobeafact–BaghdadwillnotagainruletheKurds.Kurdistan isnota sovereign recognised statebut ithasmanyof the trappingsofone,

and current events in the Middle East only add to the probability that there will be a

Kurdistaninnameandininternationallaw.Thequestionsare:whatshapewillitbe?AndhowwillSyria,TurkeyandIranreactiftheirKurdishregionsattempttobepartofitandtrytocreateacontiguousKurdistanwithaccesstotheMediterranean?Therewill be anotherproblem:unity among theKurds. IraqiKurdistanhas longbeen

divided between two rival families. Syria’s Kurds are trying to create a statelet they callRojava.They see it as part of a future greaterKurdistan, but in the eventof its creationquestionswouldariseastowhowouldhavehowmuchpower,andwhere.IfKurdistandoesbecome an internationally recognised state then the shape of Iraq will change. ThatassumestherewillbeanIraq.Theremaynotbe.

Althoughnotarecognisedstate,thereisanidentifiable‘Kurdistan’region.Crossingbordersasitdoes,thisisanareaofpotentialtroubleshouldtheKurdishregionsattempttoestablishanindependentcountry.

TheHashemiteKingdom,asJordanisalsoknown,isanotherplacethatwascarvedoutofthedesertbytheBritish,whoin1918hadonelargepieceofterritorytoadministerandseveralproblemstosolve.Various Arabian tribes had helped the British against the Ottomans during the First

WorldWar,butthereweretwoinparticularwhichLondonpromisedtorewardatthewar’send.Unfortunatelybothwerepromisedthesamething–controloftheArabianPeninsula.Given that the Saud and Hashemite tribes frequently fought each other, this was a littleawkward.SoLondondusteddownthemaps,drewsomelinesandsaidtheheadoftheSaud

family could rule over one region, and the head of the Hashemites could rule the other,althougheachwould ‘need’aBritishdiplomat tokeepaneyeonthings.TheSaudi leadereventually landedonanameforhis territory,calling itafterhimself,henceweknowtheareaasSaudiArabia–theroughequivalentwouldbecallingtheUK‘Windsorland’.TheBritish,sticklersforadministration,namedtheotherarea‘Transjordan’,whichwas

shorthandfor‘theothersideoftheJordanRiver’.AdustylittletowncalledAmmanbecamethe capital of Transjordan, andwhen the Britishwent home in 1948 the country’s namechanged to Jordan. But the Hashemites were not from the Amman area: they wereoriginally part of the powerful Qureshi tribe from the Mecca region, and the originalinhabitantsweremostlyBedouin.ThemajorityofthepopulationisnowPalestinian:whenthe Israelisoccupied theWestBank in1967manyPalestinians fled toJordan,whichwastheonlyArabstatetograntthemcitizenship.WenowhaveasituationwherethemajorityofJordan’s6.7millioncitizensarePalestinian,manyofwhomdonotregardthemselvesasloyalsubjectsofthecurrentHashemiteruler,KingAbdullah.AddedtothisproblemaretheonemillionIraqiandSyrianrefugeesthecountryhasalsotakeninwhoareputtingahugestrainonitsextremelylimitedresources.Such changes to a country’s demographics can cause serious problems, and nowhere

moresothaninLebanon.Untilthetwentiethcentury,theArabsintheregionsawtheareabetweentheLebanese

mountainsandtheseaassimplyaprovinceoftheregionofSyria.TheFrench,intowhosegraspitfellaftertheFirstWorldWar,sawthingsdifferently.TheFrenchhadlongalliedthemselveswiththeregion’sArabChristiansandbywayof

thanksmadeupacountryfortheminaplaceinwhichtheyappearedinthe1920stobethedominant population. As there was no other obvious name for this country the Frenchnameditafterthenearbymountains,andthusLebanonwasborn.Thisgeographicalfancyhelduntilthelate1950s.BythenthebirthrateamongLebanon’sShiaandSunniMuslimswas growing faster than that of the Christians, while the Muslim population had beenswollenbyPalestiniansfleeingthe1948Arab–IsraeliWarinneighbouringIsrael/Palestine.TherehasonlybeenoneofficialcensusinLebanon(in1932),becausedemographicsissuchasensitiveissueandthepoliticalsystemispartiallybasedonpopulationsizes.Therehave longbeenboutsof fightingbetweenthevariousconfessionalgroups inthe

area,andwhatsomehistorianscallthefirstLebanesecivilwarbrokeoutin1958betweentheMaroniteChristiansandtheMuslims,whobythistimeprobablyslightlyoutnumberedtheChristians.Theyarenowinaclearmajoritybuttherearestillnoofficial figures,andacademicstudiescitingnumbersarefiercelycontested.Somepartsofthecapital,Beirut,areexclusivelyShiaMuslim,asismostofthesouthof

the country. This is where the Shia Hezbollah group (backed by Shia-dominated Iran) isdominant. Another Shia stronghold is the Beqaa Valley, which Hezbollah has used as astagingpostforitsforagesintoSyriatosupportgovernmentforcesthere.OthertownsareoverwhelminglySunniMuslim.For exampleTripoli, in thenorth, is thought tobe80percent Sunni, but it also has a sizeable Alawite minority, and given the Sunni–AlawitetensionsnextdoorinSyriathishasledtosporadicboutsoffighting.Lebanonappearstobeaunifiedstateonlyfromtheperspectiveofseeingitonamap.It

takesjustafewminutesafterarrivingatBeirutAirporttodiscoveritisfarfromthat.Thedrive from the airport to the centre takes youpast the exclusively Shia southern suburbs,which are partially policed by theHezbollahmilitia, probably themost efficient fightingforceinthecountry.TheLebanesearmyexistsonpaper,butintheeventofanothercivilwarsuchasthatof1975–90,itwouldfallapart,assoldiersinmostunitswouldsimplygobacktotheirhometownsandjointhelocalmilitias.That is, in part, what happened to the Syrian armed forces once the civil war there

reallytookholdtowardstheendof2011.Syriaisanothermulti-faith,multi-confessional,multi-tribalstatewhichfellapartatthe

firsttimeofasking.Typicaloftheregion,thecountryismajoritySunniMuslim–about70percent–buthassubstantialminoritiesofotherfaiths.Until2011manycommunitieslivedsidebysideinthetowns,citiesandcountryside,buttherewerestilldistinctareasinwhichaparticulargroupdominated.AsinIraq,localswouldalwaystellyou,‘Weareonepeople,therearenodivisionsbetweenus.’However,asinIraq,yourname,placeofbirthorplaceofhabitationusuallymeantyourbackgroundcouldbeeasily identified,and,as inIraq, itdidn’ttakemuchtopulltheonepeopleapartintomany.WhentheFrenchruledtheregiontheyfollowedtheBritishexampleofdivideandrule.

At that time the Alawites were known as Nusayris. Many Sunnis do not count them asMuslims,andsuchwasthehostilitytowardsthemtheyrebrandedthemselvesasAlawites(asin ‘followers of Ali’) to reinforce their Islamic credentials. They were a backward hillpeople,atthebottomofthesocialstratainSyriansociety.TheFrenchtookthemandputthem into the police force and military, from where over the years they establishedthemselvesasamajorpowerintheland.Fundamentally, everyone was aware of the tension of having leaders from a small

minorityofthepopulationrulingthemajority.TheAssadclan,fromwhichPresidentBasharAssad comes, is Alawite, a group that comprises approximately 12 per cent of thepopulation.ThefamilyhasruledthecountrysinceBashar’sfather,Hafez,tookpowerinacoupd’étatin1970.In1982HafezcrushedaMuslimBrotherhoodSunniuprisinginHama,killingperhaps30,000peopleoverseveraldays.TheBrotherhoodneverforgaveorforgot,

andwhenthenationwideuprisingbeganin2011therewerescorestobesettled. InsomerespectstheensuingcivilwarwassimplyHama,PartTwo.The final shapeandmake-upofSyria isnow inquestion,but there isone scenario in

which, ifDamascusfalls(althoughthat is far fromprobable), theAlawitesretreattotheirancient coastal andhill strongholds and formamini-statelet suchas existed in the1920sand1930s. It is theoreticallypossible,buthundredsof thousandsofSunniMuslimswouldremain in the region and were a new Sunni-dominated government to be formed inDamascus,oneofitsprioritieswouldbetosecurearoutetotheSyriancoastanddefeatthelastpocketsofresistance.InthenearfutureSyrialooksasifitisdestinedtoberuledasanumberoffiefdomswith

variouswarlordsholdingsway.At the timeofwriting,PresidentAssad is simply themostpowerfulwarlordofmany.Lebanon’smostrecentcivilwarlastedforfifteenyearsandattimesitremainsperilouslyclosetoanotherone.Syriamaysufferasimilarfate.Syriahasalsobecome,likeLebanon,aplaceusedbyoutsidepowerstofurthertheirown

aims.Russia,IranandLebaneseHezbollahsupporttheSyriangovernmentforces.TheArabcountries support the opposition, but different states support different opposition groups:theSaudisandQataris,forexample,arebothvyingforinfluence,buteachbacksadifferentproxytoachieveit.Itwill require skill, courage and an element so often lacking – compromise – to hold

manyof these regions togetherasa single,governable space.EspeciallyasSunni jihadistfightersaretryingtopullthemapartinordertowidentheir‘caliphate’.GroupssuchasAlQaedaand,morerecently,IslamicStatehavegarneredwhatsupport

theyhavepartiallybecauseofthehumiliationcausedbycolonialismandthenthefailureofpan-Arabnationalism–andtoanextenttheArabnationstate.Arableadershavefailedtodeliverprosperityor freedom, and the siren call of Islamism,whichpromises to solve allproblems, has proved attractive to many in a region marked by a toxic mix of piety,unemploymentandrepression.TheIslamistsharkbacktoagoldenagewhenIslamruledanempire and was at the cutting edge of technology, art, medicine and government. Theyhavehelpedbringtothesurfacetheancientsuspicionsof‘theother’throughouttheMiddleEast.IslamicStategrewoutofthe‘AlQaedainIraq’franchisegroupinthelate2000s,which

nominallywasdirectedbytheremnantsoftheAlQaedaleadership.BythetimetheSyrianCivilWarwasinfullflowthegrouphadsplitfromAlQaedaandrenameditself.Atfirstitwas knownby the outsideworld as ISIL (‘Islamic State In the Levant’) but as theArabicwordfortheLevantisAlSham,graduallyitbecameISIS.Inthesummerof2014thegroupbegancalling itself IslamicState,havingproclaimed suchanentity in largepartsof Iraq

andSyria.Itquicklybecamethe‘goto’jihadistgroup,drawingthousandsofforeignMuslimstothe

cause, partially due to its pious romanticism and partially for its brutality. Its mainattraction,though,wasitssuccessincreatingacaliphate;whereAlQaedamurderedpeopleandcapturedheadlines,ISmurderedpeopleandcapturedterritory.IS also seized upon an area that is increasingly important in the internet age –

psychologicalspace.ItbuiltonthepioneeringworkofAlQaedainsocialmediaandtookittonewheightsofsophisticationandbrutality.By2015ISwasaheadofanygovernmentinlevelsofpublicmessagingusingjihadistsbroughtuponthesometimesbrutalisingeffectsofthe internetand itsobsessionwithviolenceand sex.TheyareGenerationJackassJihadisandtheyareaheadofthedeadlygame.SunniIslamistfightersfromacrosstheglobe,drawnlikemothstothelightofabillion

pixels,havetakenadvantageofthethree-waysplitbetweenKurds,SunniandShiainIraq.TheyoffertheSunniArabsaheadymixofthepromiseofrestoringthemtotheir ‘rightful’place as the dominant force in the region, and the re-establishment of the caliphate inwhichtheirversionofalltruebelievers(SunniMuslims)liveunderoneruler.However, it is theveryfanaticismoftheirbeliefsandpracticesthatexplainswhythey

cannotachievetheirutopianfantasies.Firstly,onlysomeoftheSunniIraqitribeswillsupportthejihadistaims,andeventhen

onlytoachievetheirownends–whichdonotincludeareturntothesixthcentury.Oncetheygetwhat theywant theywill then turnon the jihadists, especially the foreignones.Secondly, the jihadistshavedemonstrated that there isnomercy foranyonewhoopposesthemandthatbeinganon-Sunniisakintoadeathsentence.So,allnon-SunniMuslimsandalltheminoritiesinIraq,Christians,Chaldeans,Yazidisandothers,areagainstthem,asaredozensofWesternandMuslimcountries.The non-jihadist Iraqi Sunnis are in a difficult position. In the event of either a

fragmentedoralegallyfederalisedIraqtheyarestuckinthemiddle,surroundedbysandinan area that is known as the Sunni Triangle,with its points roughly located just east ofBaghdad, west of Ramadi and north of Tikrit. Sunnis living here often have more incommonwith their relatedtribes inSyria thantheydowith theKurds in thenorthor theShiaofthesouth.There is not enough economic diversity within the triangle to sustain a Sunni entity.

History bequeathed oil to ‘Iraq’, but the de facto division of the countrymeans the oil ismostly in theKurdish andShia areas; and if there is no strong,unified Iraq, then theoilmoney flows back towhere the oil is found. The Kurdish lands cannot be brought undertheir control, the cities south of Baghdad such as Najaf and Karbala are overwhelmingly

Shia, and the ports of Basra andUmmQasr are far away from the Sunni territory. Thisdilemma leaves the Sunnis fighting for an equal share in a country they once ruled,sometimestoyingwiththeideaofseparation,butknowingthattheirfuturewouldprobablybeself-ruleovernotverymuch.In theeventofa split theShiaaregeographicallybestplaced to takeadvantage.The

regiontheydominatehasoilfields,35milesofcoastline,theShattal-Arabwaterway,ports,accesstotheoutsideworldandareligious,economicandmilitaryallynextdoorintheformofIran.The jihadist fantasy is global dominationby Salafi Islam. In theirmore lucid, yet still

wild,moments theyplan, and fight, for amore limited aim– a caliphate throughout theMiddleEast.Oneof the jihadists’battlecries is ‘FromMosul toJerusalem!’,meaningthattheyhopetocontroltheareafromMosulinIraqrightacrosstoBeirutinLebanon,Ammanin Jordan and Jerusalem in Israel.However, the real size of Islamic State’s geographicalcaliphateislimitedbyitscapabilities.ThisisnottounderestimatetheproblemorthescaleofwhatmaybetheArabversionof

Europe’sThirtyYears’War(1618–48).ItisnotjustaMiddleEasternproblem.Manyoftheinternational jihadistswhosurvivewill returnhometoEurope,NorthAmerica, Indonesia,the Caucasus and Bangladesh, where they are unlikely to settle for a quiet life. Theintelligence services in London believe there are farmore BritishMuslims fighting in theMiddleEastforjihadistgroupsthanthereareservingintheBritishArmy.TheradicalisationprogrammeundertakenbytheIslamistsbeganseveraldecadesbeforethede-radicalisationinitiativesnowunderwayinEuropeancountries.Most countries in the region face their own version of this generational struggle to a

greateror lesserdegree.SaudiArabia, forexample,has takenonAlQaedacellsover thepastdecadebut,havingmostlytakenthemapart,itnowfacesrenewedchallengesfromthenextgenerationofjihadists.Ithasanotherprobleminthesouth,ontheborderwithYemen,whichitselfisblightedwithviolence,separatistmovementsandastrongjihadistelement.ThereisalsoasimmeringIslamistmovementinJordan,especiallyinthetownofZarqa,

inthenorth-easttowardstheSyrianandIraqiborders,whichishometosomeoftheseveralthousand supporters of groups such as Al Qaeda and Islamic State. The authorities arefearfulofajihadistgroupinIraqorSyriareachingthenowfragilebordersinstrengthandcrossingintoJordan.TheBritish-trainedJordanianArmyis thoughttobeoneof themostrobustintheMiddleEast,butitmightstruggletocopeiflocalIslamistsandforeignfighterstooktothestreetsinguerrillawarfare.IfthePalestinianJordaniansdeclinedtodefendthecountryitisnotunrealistictobelievethatitwoulddescendintothesortofchaoswenowsee in Syria.This is the last thing theHashemite rulerswant – and it’s the last thing the

Israeliswantaswell.ThebattleforthefutureoftheArabMiddleEasthastoanextenttakenthespotlightoff

theIsraeli-Arabstruggle.ThefixationwithIsrael/Palestinedoessometimesreturn,butthemagnitude of what is going on elsewhere has finally enabled at least some observers tounderstandthattheproblemsoftheregionarenotdowntotheexistenceofIsrael.Thatwasa lie peddled by the Arab dictators as they sought to deflect attention from their ownbrutality,anditwasboughtbymanypeopleacrosstheareaandthedictators’usefulidiotsin theWest.Nevertheless the Israeli/ Palestinian joint tragedy continues, and such is theobsessionwiththistinypieceoflandthatitmayagaincometobeconsideredbysometobethemostpressingconflictintheworld.The Ottomans had regarded the area west of the River Jordan to the Mediterranean

Coastasapartof the regionofSyria.Theycalled itFilistina.After theFirstWorldWar,undertheBritishMandatethisbecamePalestine.The Jews had lived inwhat used to be called Israel formillennia, but the ravages of

historyhaddispersed themacross theglobe. Israel remained for themthe ‘promised land’and Jerusalem in particular was sacred ground. However, by 1948 Arab Muslims andChristianshadbeenaclearmajorityinthelandformorethanathousandyears.Inthetwentiethcentury,withtheintroductionoftheMandateforPalestine,theJewish

movement to join their minority co-religionists grew and, propelled by the pogroms inEasternEurope,moreandmoreJewsbegan tosettle there.TheBritish looked favourablyon thecreationofa ‘Jewishhomeland’ inPalestineandallowedJews tomove thereandbuylandfromtheArabs.AftertheSecondWorldWarandtheHolocaust,JewstriedtogettoPalestineinevengreaternumbers.TensionsbetweenJewsandnon-Jewsreachedboilingpoint, andan exhaustedBritainhandedover theproblem to theUnitedNations in1948,whichvotedtopartitiontheregionintotwocountries.TheJewsagreed,theArabssaid‘No’.Theoutcomewaswar,whichcreatedthefirstwaveofPalestinianrefugeesfleeingtheareaandJewishrefugeescominginfromacrosstheMiddleEast.JordanoccupiedtheWestBankregion,includingEastJerusalem.EgyptoccupiedGaza,

considering it to be an extension of its territory. Neitherwasminded to give the peopleliving there citizenship or statehood as Palestinians, nor was there any significantmovement by the inhabitants calling for the creation of a Palestinian state. Syria,meanwhile, considered the whole area to be part of greater Syria and the people livingthereasSyrians.TothisdayEgypt,SyriaandJordanaresuspiciousofPalestinianindependence,andif

IsraelvanishedandwasreplacedbyPalestine,allthreemightmakeclaimstopartsoftheterritory. In this century, however, there is a fierce sense of nationhood among the

Palestinians,andanyArabdictatorshipseekingtotakeachunkoutofaPalestinianstateofwhatever shape or sizewould bemetwithmassive opposition. ThePalestinians are veryawarethatmostoftheArabcountries,towhichsomeofthemfledinthetwentiethcentury,refuse to give themcitizenship; these countries insist that the status of their children andgrandchildren remains ‘refugee’, and work to ensure that they do not integrate into thecountry.

TheGolanHeights,theWestBankandGazaremaincontestedterritoryfollowingtheSix-DayWarin1967.

During theSix-DayWarof1967 the Israeliswoncontrolofallof Jerusalem, theWestBankandGaza.In2005theyleftGaza,buthundredsofthousandsofsettlersremainintheWestBank.Israel regardsJerusalemas itseternal, indivisiblecapital.TheJewishreligionsays the

rockuponwhichAbrahamprepared to sacrifice Isaac is there, and that it stands directlyabove the Holy of Holies, King Solomon’s Temple. For the Palestinians Jerusalem has areligious resonancewhich runsdeep throughout theMuslimworld: thecity is regardedas

thethirdmostholyplaceinIslambecausetheProphetMuhammadissaidtohaveascendedtoheavenfromthatsamerock,whichisonthesiteofwhatisnowthe‘FurthestMosque’(AlAqsa).Militarilythecityisofonlymoderatestrategicgeographicalimportance–ithasnorealindustrytospeakof,noriverandnoairport–butitisofoverwhelmingsignificanceinculturalandreligiousterms:theideologicalneedfortheplaceisofmoreimportancethanitslocation.Controlof,andaccessto,Jerusalemisnotanissueuponwhichacompromisesolutioncanbeeasilyachieved.Incomparison,GazawaseasierfortheIsraelistogiveup(althoughitwasstilldifficult).

Whether the people living there have gainedmuch by the Israeli departure, however, isopentodebate.GazaisbyfartheworseoffofthetwocurrentPalestinian‘entities’.Itisonly25miles

longand7.5mileswide.Crammed into this spaceare1.8millionpeople. It is ineffecta‘citystate’,albeitahorriblyimpoverishedone.DuetotheconflictwithIsraelitscitizensarepennedinonthreesidesbyasecuritybarriercreatedbyIsraelandEgypt,andbytheseatotheirwest.TheycanonlybuildtowithinacertaindistanceoftheborderwithIsraelbecausetheIsraelisaretryingtolimittheabilityofrocketfirefromGazatoreachdeepintoIsrael.Thelastdecadehasseenanasymmetricarmsracegainpace,withmilitantsinGazaseekingrocketsthatcanfirefurther,andIsraeldevelopingitsanti-missiledefencesystem.BecauseofitsurbandensityGazamakesgoodfightinggroundforitsdefendersbutitisa

nightmareforitscivilians,whohavelittleornoshelterfromwarandnolinktotheWestBank,althoughthedistancebetweenthetwoisonly25milesatitsnarrowestpoint.Untilapeace deal is agreed there is nowhere for theGazans to go, and little for them to do athome.The West Bank is almost seven times the size of Gaza but is landlocked. Much of it

comprises amountain ridgewhich runs north to south. From amilitary perspective, thisgiveswhoevercommandsthehighgroundcontrolofthecoastalplainonthewesternsideofthe ridge, and of the Jordan Rift Valley to its east. Leaving to one side the ideology ofJewish settlers,who claim thebiblical right to live inwhat they call Judea andSamaria,fromamilitaryperspectivetheIsraeliviewisthatanon-Israeliforcecannotbeallowedtocontroltheseheights,asheavyweaponscouldbefiredontothecoastalplainwhere70percentof Israel’s population lives.Theplain also includes itsmost important road systems,manyofitssuccessfulhigh-techcompanies,theinternationalairportandmostofitsheavyindustry.Thisisonereasonforthedemandfor‘security’bytheIsraelisideanditsinsistencethat,

even if there is an independent Palestinian state, that state cannot have an army withheavyweaponsontheridge,andthatIsraelmustalsomaintaincontroloftheborderwith

Jordan.BecauseIsraelissosmallithasnoreal‘strategicdepth’,nowheretofallbacktoifitsdefencesarebreached,andsomilitarilyitconcentratesontryingtoensurenoonecangetnear it.Furthermore, thedistance from theWestBankborder toTelAviv isabout10milesatitsnarrowest;fromtheWestBankridge,anyhalfdecentmilitarycouldcutIsraelintwo. Likewise, in the case of the West Bank Israel prevents any group from becomingpowerfulenoughtothreatenitsexistence.UndercurrentconditionsIsraelfacesthreatstoitssecurityandtothelivesofitscitizens

by terrorist attacks and rocket fire from its immediateneighbours, butnot a threat to itsvery existence. Egypt, to the southwest, is not a threat. There is a peace treaty thatcurrently suits both sides, and the partially demilitarised Sinai Peninsula acts as a bufferbetweenthem.Eastofthis,acrosstheRedSeaatAqabainJordan,thedesertalsoprotectsIsrael,asdoesitspeacetreatywithAmman.TothenorththereisapotentialmenacefromLebanonbut it is a relatively small one, in the formof cross-border raids and/or limitedshelling. However, if and when Hezbollah in Lebanon use their larger and longer-rangerocketstoreachdeepintoIsrael,theresponsewillbemassive.The more serious potential threat comes from Lebanon’s bigger neighbour Syria.

Historically,Damascuswantsandneedsdirectaccess to thecoast. Ithasalways regardedLebanonaspartofSyria(asindeeditwas)andremainsbitteraboutitstroopshavingbeenforced to leave in2005. If that route to the sea is blocked, the alternative is to cross theGolanHeights and descend to the hilly region around the Sea of Galilee en route to theMediterranean.ButtheHeightswereseizedbyIsraelafterSyriaattackeditinthe1973war,anditwouldtakeanenormousonslaughtbyaSyrianarmytobreakthroughtothecoastalplain leading to themajor Israeli population centres. This cannot be discounted at somefuturepoint, but in themedium term it remains extremelyunlikely, and–as longas theSyriancivilwarcontinues–impossible.That leavesthequestionofIran–amoreseriousconsiderationas itraisestheissueof

nuclearweapons.Iran is anon-Arabic,majorityFarsi-speakinggiant. It isbigger thanFrance,Germany

andtheUKcombined,butwhilethepopulationsofthosecountriesamountto200millionpeople,Iranhasonly78million.Withlimitedhabitablespace,mostliveinthemountains;thegreatdesertsandsaltplainsoftheinteriorofIranarenoplaceforhumanhabitation.Justdrivingthroughthemcansubduethehumanspirit,andlivinginthemisastrugglefewundertake.TherearetwohugemountainrangesinIran:theZagrosandtheElburz.TheZagrosruns

fromthenorth,900milesdownalongIran’sborderswithTurkeyandIraq,endingalmostattheStraitofHormuz in theGulf. In the southernhalfof the range there isaplain to the

westwhere the Shatt al-Arab divides Iran and Iraq. This is alsowhere themajor Iranianoilfieldsare,theothersbeinginthenorthandcentre.Togethertheyarethoughttocomprisethe world’s third-largest reserves. Despite this Iran remains relatively poor due tomismanagement, corruption,mountainous topography that hinders transport connectionsand economic sanctionswhich have, in part, prevented certain sections of industry frommodernising.TheElburzrangealsobeginsinthenorth,butalongtheborderwithArmenia.Itrunsthe

whole length of the Caspian Sea’s south shore and on to the border with Turkmenistanbeforedescendingas itreachesAfghanistan.This is themountainrangeyoucanseefromthecapital,Tehran,toweringabovethecitytoitsnorth.Itprovidesspectacularviews,andalsoabetter-keptsecretthantheIraniannuclearproject:theskiingconditionsareexcellentforseveralmonthseachyear.Iran is defended by this geography, with mountains on three sides, swampland and

water on the fourth. TheMongolswere the last force tomake any progress through theterritory in 1219–21 and since then attackers have ground themselves into dust trying tomakeheadwayacrossthemountains.BythetimeoftheSecondGulfWarin2003eventheUSA,thegreatestfightingforcetheworldhasseen,thoughtbetterthantotakearightturnonceithadenteredIraqfromthesouth,knowingthatevenwithitssuperiorfirepowerIranwasnotacountrytoinvade.Infact,theUSmilitaryhadacatchphraseatthetime:‘Wedodeserts,notmountains.’In 1980,when the Iran–IraqWar broke out, the Iraqis used six divisions to cross the

Shattal-ArabinanattempttoannextheIranianprovinceofKhuzestan.Theyneverevenmadeitofftheswamp-riddenplains,letaloneenteredthefoothillsoftheZagros.Thewardraggedonforeightyears,takingatleastamillionlives.Themountainous terrain of Iranmeans that it is difficult to create an interconnected

economy, and that it hasmanyminority groups eachwith keenlydefined characteristics.Khuzestan,forexample, isethnicallymajorityArab,andelsewherethereareKurds,Azeri,TurkmenandGeorgians,amongothers.Atmost60percentofthecountryspeaksFarsi,thelanguage of the dominant Persian majority. As a result of this diversity, Iran hastraditionally centralised power and used force and a fearsome intelligence network tomaintaininternalstability.TehranknowsthatnooneisabouttoinvadeIran,butalsothathostile powers canuse itsminorities to try and stir dissent and thus endanger its Islamicrevolution.Iran also has a nuclear industry which many countries, particularly Israel, believe is

beingused toprepare for theconstructionofnuclearweapons, increasing tensions in theregion.TheIsraelisfeelthreatenedbytheprospectofIraniannuclearweapons.Itisnotjust

Iran’spotential torival theirownarsenalandwipeout Israelwith justonebomb: if Iranwere to get the bomb, then theArab countrieswould probably panic and attempt to gettheirs as well. The Saudis, for example, fear that the Ayatollahs want to dominate theregion,bringalltheShiaArabsundertheirguidance,andevenhavedesignsoncontrollingthe holy cities of Mecca and Medina. A nuclear-armed Iran would be the regionalsuperpowerparexcellence,andtocounterthisdangertheSaudiswouldprobablytrytobuynuclearweaponsfromPakistan(withwhomtheyhavecloseties).EgyptandTurkeymightfollowsuit.ThismeansthatthethreatofanIsraeliairstrikeonIran’snuclearfacilitiesisaconstant

presence,but therearemany restraining factors.One is that ina straight line it is1,000miles fromIsrael to Iran.The Israeliair forcewouldneedtocross twosovereignborders,thoseofJordanand Iraq; the latterwouldcertainly tell Iran that theattackwascoming.AnotheristhatanyotherrouterequiresrefuellingcapabilitieswhichmaybebeyondIsrael,andwhich (if flying thenorthernroute)alsooverfly sovereign territory.A final reason isthatIranholdswhatmightbeatrumpcard–theabilitytoclosetheStraitofHormuzintheGulfthroughwhichpasseseachday,dependingonsales,about20percentoftheworld’soilneeds.AtitsnarrowestpointtheStrait,whichisregardedasthemoststrategicintheworld,is only 21miles across. The industrialisedworld fears the effect of Hormuz being closedpossiblyformonthsonend,withensuingspirallingprices.ThisisonereasonwhysomanycountriespressureIsraelnottoact.Inthe2000stheIraniansfearedencirclementbytheAmericans.TheUSnavywasinthe

Gulf,andAmericantroopswereinIraqandAfghanistan.WiththemilitarydrawdownsinbothcountriesIranianfearshavenowfaded,andIranisleftinthedominantpositionwithadirectlinetoitsalliesinShia-dominatedIraq.ThesouthofIraqisalsoabridgeforIrantoits Alawite allies in Damascus, and then to its Shia allies in the form of Hezbollah inLebanonontheMediterraneancoast.In the sixth to the fourth centuries BCE the Persian Empire stretched all theway from

EgypttoIndia.Modern-dayIranhasnosuchimperialdesigns,butitdoesseektoexpanditsinfluence,andtheobviousdirectionisacrosstheflatlandstoitswest–theArabworldandits Shia minorities. It has made ground in Iraq since the US invasion delivered a Shia-majoritygovernment.ThishasalarmedSunni-dominatedSaudiArabiaandhelpedfueltheMiddleEast’sversionoftheColdWarwiththeSaudi-Iranianrelationshipatitscore.SaudiArabiamay be bigger than Iran, itmay bemany times richer than Iran due to itswell-developedoil andgas industries,but itspopulation ismuch smaller (28millionSaudisasopposedto78millionIranians)andmilitarilyitisnotconfidentaboutitsabilitytotakeonits Persian neighbour if this coldwar ever turns hot and their forces confront each other

directly.Eachsidehasambitionstobethedominantpowerintheregion,andeachregardsitselfas thechampionof itsrespectiveversionof Islam.WhenIraqwasundertheheelofSaddam,apowerfulbufferseparatedSaudiArabiaandIran;withthatbuffergone,thetwocountriesnowglareateachotheracrosstheGulf.WestofIranisacountrythatisbothEuropeanandAsian.Turkeyliesonthebordersof

theArab landsbut isnotArabic,andalthoughmostof its landmass is part of thewiderMiddleEastregion,ittriestodistanceitselffromtheconflictstakingplacethere.TheTurkshaveneverbeentrulyrecognisedaspartofEuropebytheirneighbourstothe

northandnorth-west.IfTurkeyisEuropean,thenEurope’sbordersareonthefarsideofthevast Anatolian Plain, meaning they stop at Syria, Iraq and Iran. This is a concept fewpeopleaccept. If it isnotpartofEurope, thenwhere is it? Itsgreatestcity, Istanbul,wasEuropeanCityofCulture2010, itcompetes in theEurovisionSongContestand theUEFAEuropeanChampionship,itappliedformembershipofwhatisnowtheEuropeanUnioninthe1970s;andyetlessthan5percentofitsterritoryisinEurope.MostgeographersregardthesmallareaofTurkeywhichiswestoftheBosporusasbeinginEurope,andtherestofthecountry,southandsouth-eastoftheBosporus,asbeingintheMiddleEast(initswidestsense).ThatisonereasonwhyTurkeyhasneverbeenacceptedintotheEU.Otherfactorsare

its record on human rights, especially when it comes to the Kurds, and its economy. Itspopulation is 75 million and European countries fear that, given the disparity in livingstandards, EUmembershipwould result in amass influx of labour.Whatmay also be afactor,albeitunspokenwithintheEU,isthatTurkeyisamajorityMuslimcountry(98percent).TheEUisneitherasecularnoraChristianorganisation,buttherehasbeenadifficultdebateabout‘values’.ForeachargumentforTurkey’sEUmembershipthereisanargumentagainst,andinthepastdecadetheprospectsforTurkeyjoininghavediminished.Thishasledthecountrytoreflectonwhatotherchoicestheremaybe.Inthe1920s, foronemanat least, therewasnochoice.HisnamewasMustafaKemal

andhewastheonlyTurkishgeneraltoemergefromtheFirstWorldWarwithanenhancedreputation.AfterthevictoriouspowerscarvedupTurkeyherosetobecomepresidentonaplatform of resisting the terms imposed by the Allies, but at the same timemodernisingTurkeyandmakingitpartofEurope.WesternlegalcodesandtheGregoriancalendarwereintroducedandIslamicpublicinstitutionsbanned.Thewearingofthefezwasforbidden,theLatinalphabetreplacedArabicscript,andheevengrantedthevotetowomen(twoyearsaheadofSpainandfifteenyearsaheadofFrance).In1934,whenTurksembracedlegallybindingsurnames,Kemalwasgiventhename‘Atatürk’– ‘FatheroftheTurks’.Hediedin1938 but subsequent Turkish leaders continued working to bring Turkey into the West

Europeanfold,andthosethatdidn’tfoundthemselvesonthewrongendofcoupsd’étatbyamilitarydeterminedtocompleteAtatürk’slegacy.Bythelate1980s,however,thecontinuedrejectionbyEuropeandthestubbornrefusal

ofmanyordinaryTurkstobecomelessreligiousresultedinagenerationofpoliticianswhobegan to think theunthinkable – that perhapsTurkeyneeded aPlanB. PresidentTurgutÖzal,areligiousman,cametoofficein1989andbeganthechange.HeencouragedTurksagaintoseeTurkeyasthegreatlandbridgebetweenEurope,AsiaandtheMiddleEast,andacountrywhichcouldagainbeagreatpower inall threeregions.ThecurrentPresident,Recep Tayyib Erdoğan, has similar ambitions, perhaps even greater ones, but has facedsimilarhurdlesinachievingthem.Theseareinpartgeographical.Politically, the Arab countries remain suspicious that Erdoğan wants to recreate the

OttomanEmpire economically and they resist close ties.The Iranians seeTurkeyas theirmostpowerfulmilitary andeconomic competitor in their ownbackyard.Relations,neverwarm,havecooledduetothembeingonoppositesidesinsupportforfactionsinvolvedinthe Syrian civil war. Turkey’s strong support for theMuslim Brotherhood government inEgyptwasapolicy thatbackfiredwhentheEgyptianmilitarystaged its secondcoupandtookpower.RelationsbetweenCairoandAnkaraarenowicy.TheTurkish elite have learnt that scoring Islamist points by picking fightswith Israel

resultsinIsraelco-operatingwithCyprusandGreecetocreateatrilateralenergyalliancetoexploitthegasfieldsofftheirrespectivecoasts.TheEgyptiangovernment’sdimviewofTurkey is contributing to Cairo’s interest in being amajor customer for this new energysource.MeanwhileTurkey,whichcouldhavebenefitedfromIsraelienergy,remainslargelyreliantonitsoldfoeRussiaforitsenergyneedswhilstsimultaneouslyworkingwithRussiatodevelopnewpipelinestodeliverenergytoEUcountries.The Americans, alarmed at the new cold war between Turkey and Israel, two of its

allies, are working to bring them together again. The USA wants a better relationshipbetweenthemsoastostrengthenNATO’spositionintheeasternMediterranean.InNATOterms,TurkeyisakeycountrybecauseitcontrolstheentrancetoandexitfromtheBlackSeathroughthenarrowgapoftheBosporusStrait.IfitclosestheStrait,whichislessthanamile across at its narrowest point, theRussianBlack Sea Fleet cannot break out into theMediterraneanandthentheAtlantic.EvengettingthroughtheBosporusonlytakesyouintotheSeaofMarmara;youstillhavetonavigatethroughtheDardanellesStraitstogettotheAegeanSeaenroutetotheMediterranean.GivenitslandmassTurkeyisnotoftenthoughtofasaseapower,butitbordersthree

seasanditscontrolofthesewatershasalwaysmadeitaforcetobereckonedwith;itisalsoatradeandtransportationbridgelinkingEuropewiththeMiddleEast,theCaucasusandon

uptotheCentralAsiancountries,withwhichitshareshistoryand,insomeregions,ethnicties.Turkeyisdeterminedtobeatthecrossroadsofhistoryevenifthetrafficcanattimesbe

hazardous. The webpage of the Turkish Foreign Ministry emphasises this in the section‘SynopsisofForeignPolicy’: ‘TheAfro-EurasiangeographywhereTurkeyissituatedattheepicentreisanareawheresuchopportunitiesandrisksinteractinthemostintensiveway.’Italsosays:‘TurkeyisdeterminedtobecomeafullmemberoftheEuropeanUnionaspartofitsbicentennialefforttoreachthehighestlevelofcontemporarycivilisation.’Thatlooksunlikelyintheshorttomediumterm.UntilafewyearsagoTurkeywasheld

up as an example of how a Middle Eastern country, other than Israel, could embracedemocracy. That example has taken a few knocks recently with the ongoing Kurdishproblem,thedifficultiesfacingsomeofthetinyChristiancommunitiesandthetacitsupportfor Islamist groups in their fight against the Syrian government. President Erdoğan’sremarksonJews,raceandgenderequality,takenwiththecreepingIslamisationofTurkey,havesetalarmbellsringing.However,comparedwiththemajorityofArabstatesTurkeyisfarmore developed and recognisable as a democracy. Erdoğanmay be undoing some ofAtatürk’s work, but the grandchildren of the Father of the Turks live more freely thananyoneintheArabMiddleEast.Because theArab states have not experienced a similar opening-up and have suffered

fromcolonialism,theywerenotreadytoturntheArabuprisings(thewaveofproteststhatstartedin2010)intoarealArabSpring.Insteadtheysouredintoperpetualriotingandcivilwar.TheArabSpring isamisnomer, inventedby themedia; itcloudsourunderstandingof

what is happening.Toomany reporters rushed to interview theyoung liberalswhowerestandingincitysquareswithplacardswritteninEnglish,andmistookthemforthevoiceofthe people and the direction of history. Some journalists had done the same during the‘GreenRevolution’, describing the young students of north Tehran as the ‘Youth of Iran’,thusignoringtheotheryoungIranianswhowerejoiningthereactionaryBasijmilitiaandRevolutionaryGuard.In 1989 inEasternEurope therewas one formof totalitarianism:Communism. In the

majorityofpeople’smindstherewasonlyonedirectioninwhichtogo:towardsdemocracy,whichwasthrivingontheothersideoftheIronCurtain.EastandWestsharedahistoricalmemoryofperiodsofdemocracyandcivilsociety.TheArabworldof2011enjoyednoneofthosethingsandfacedinmanydifferentdirections.Therewere,andare,thedirectionsofdemocracy, liberaldemocracy(whichdiffersfromtheformer),nationalism,thecultofthestrongleaderandthedirectioninwhichmanypeoplehadbeenfacingallalong–Islamin

itsvariousguises,includingIslamism.IntheMiddleEastpowerdoesindeedflowfromthebarrelofagun.Somegoodcitizens

ofMisratainLibyamaywanttodevelopaliberaldemocraticparty,somemightevenwanttocampaignforgayrights;buttheirchoicewillbelimitedifthelocaldefactopowershootsliberal democrats and gays. Iraq is a case in point: a democracy in name only, far fromliberal,andaplacewherepeopleareroutinelymurderedforbeinghomosexual.ThesecondphaseoftheArabuprisingiswellintoitsstride.Thisisthecomplexinternal

struggle within societies where religious beliefs, social mores, tribal links and guns arecurrentlyfarmorepowerfulforcesthan‘Western’idealsofequality,freedomofexpressionanduniversalsuffrage.TheArabcountriesarebesetbyprejudices,indeedhatredsofwhichtheaverageWesternerknowsso little that theytendnot tobelieve themeven if theyarelaidoutinprintbeforetheireyes.Weareawareofourownprejudices,whicharelegion,butoftenseemtoturnablindeyetothoseintheMiddleEast.TheroutineexpressionofhatredforothersissocommonintheArabworldthatitbarely

drawscommentother thanfromtheregion’softenWestern-educated liberalminoritywhohave limited access to the platform ofmassmedia. Anti-Semitic cartoonswhich echo theNazi Der Stürmer propaganda newspaper are common. Week in, week out, shock-jockImamsaregivenspaceonprime-timeTVshows.Westernapologistsforthissortofbehaviouraresometimeshamstrungbyafearofbeing

described as one of Edward Said’s ‘Orientalists’. They betray their own liberal values bydenyingtheiruniversality.Others,intheirnaivety,saythattheseincitementstomurderarenotwidespreadandmustbeseeninthecontextoftheArabiclanguage,whichcanbegiventoflightsofrhetoric.Thissignalstheirlackofunderstandingofthe‘Arabstreet’,theroleofthemainstreamArabmediaandarefusaltounderstandthatwhenpeoplewhoarefullofhatredsaysomething,theymeanit.WhenHosniMubarakwasoustedasPresidentofEgyptitwasindeedpeoplepowerthat

toppledhim,butwhattheoutsideworldfailedtoseewasthatthemilitaryhadbeenwaitingforyearsforanopportunitytoberidofhimandhissonGamal,andthatthetheatreofthestreetprovidedthecovertheyneeded.ItwasonlywhentheMuslimBrotherhoodcalleditssupporters out that therewas enough cover. Therewere only three institutions in Egypt:Mubarak’s National Democratic Party, the military and the Brotherhood. The latter twodestroyedtheformer,theBrotherhoodthenwonanelection,beganturningEgyptintoanIslamiststate,andpaidthepricebyitselfbeingoverthrownbytherealpowerintheland–themilitary.The Islamists remain the second power, albeit now underground. When the anti-

Mubarak demonstrations were at their height the gatherings in Cairo attracted several

hundred thousand people. After Mubarak’s fall, when the radical Muslim BrotherhoodpreacherYusufal-QaradawireturnedfromexileinQatar,atleastamillionpeoplecameouttogreethim,butfewintheWesternmediacalledthisthe‘voiceofthepeople’.Theliberalsnever had a chance. Nor do they now. This is not because the people of the region areradical;itisbecauseifyouarehungryandfrightened,andyouareofferedeitherbreadandsecurityortheconceptofdemocracy,thechoiceisnotdifficult.In impoverished societies with few accountable institutions, power rests with gangs

disguisedas ‘militia’and ‘politicalparties’.Whiletheyfight forpower,sometimescheeredonbynaiveWesternsympathisers,manyinnocentpeopledie.ItlooksasifitwillbethatwayinLibya,Syria,Yemen,Iraqandpossiblyothercountriesforyearstocome.The Americans are keen to scale down their political and military investment in the

region due to a reduction in their energy import requirements; if they dowithdraw thenChina,andtoalesserextentIndia,mayhavetogetinvolvedinequalproportiontotheUSlossofinterest.TheChinesearealreadymajorplayersinSaudiArabia,IraqandIran.Thatscenario isonaglobal levelandwillbedeterminedinthechancelleriesof thecapitalsofthe great powers. On the ground the game will be played with people’s imaginations,wants,hopesandneeds,andwiththeirlives.Sykes-Picot is breaking; putting it back together, even in a different shape,will be a

longandbloodyaffair.

CHAPTER7

INDIAANDPAKISTAN

‘Indiaisnotanation,noracountry.Itisasubcontinentofnationalities.’MuhammadAliJinnah

INDIA AND PAKISTAN CAN AGREE ON ONE THING: NEITHER WANTS the other one around. This issomewhat problematic given that they share a 1,900-mile long border. Each country

fairlybristleswithantagonismandnuclearweapons, sohow theymanage thisunwantedrelationshipisamatteroflifeanddeathonascaleoftensofmillions.Indiahasapopulationapproaching1.3billionpeople,whilePakistan’s is182million.

Impoverished,volatileandsplintering,PakistanappearstodefineitselfbyitsoppositiontoIndia,whileIndia,despiteobsessingaboutPakistan,definesitselfinmanyways,includingthatofbeinganemergingworldpowerwithagrowingeconomyandanexpandingmiddleclass.FromthisvantagepointitlooksacrossatPakistanandseeshowitoutperformsitonalmostalleconomicanddemocraticindicators.They have fought four major wars and many skirmishes. Emotions run hot. An oft-

quotedremarkbyaPakistaniofficerthatPakistanwouldmakeIndiableedbyathousandcutswasaddressedinlate2014bymilitaryanalystDrAmarjitSinghwritingintheIndianDefence Review: ‘Whatever othersmay believe,my opinion is simply that it is better forIndiatobraveacostlynuclearattackbyPakistan,andgetitoverwithevenatthecostoftens ofmillions of deaths, than suffer ignominy and pain day in and day out through athousand cuts and wasted energy in unrealized potential.’ That may not reflect officialgovernment policy, but it is an indication of the depth of feeling atmany levels in bothsocieties.ModernPakistanandIndiawereborninfire;nexttimethefirecouldkillthem.The two are tied together within the geography of the Indian subcontinent, which

creates a natural frame. The Bay of Bengal, the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea arerespectivelytothesouth-east,south,andsouth-west,theHinduKushtothenorth-west,andtheHimalayastothenorth.Movingclockwise,theplateauoftheBaluchistanDesertclimbssteadilybeforebecomingthemountainsoftheNorthWestFrontier,whichriseevenhighertobecometheHinduKush.ArightturneastconnectstotheKarakoramRange,whichthenleadstotheHimalayas.TheysweeprightalongtheborderwithChinaallthewaytoBurma.From there, as India curves around Bangladesh, the terrain descends south to the Bay ofBengal.The interior of the frame containswhat aremodern-day India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,

NepalandBhutan.Thelattertwoareimpoverishedlandlockednationsdominatedbytheirgiantneighbours,Chinaand India.Bangladesh’sproblemisnot that it lacksaccess to thesea,butthattheseahastoomuchaccesstoBangladesh:floodingfromthewatersoftheBayofBengalconstantlyafflictsthelow-lyingterritory.Itsothergeographicalproblemisthatitis almost entirely surrounded by India, because the 2,545-mile long frontier, agreed in1974,wrappedIndiaaroundBangladesh,leavingitonlyashortborderwithBurmaasan

alternativelandroutetotheoutsideworld.Bangladeshisvolatile,andcontainsIslamistmilitantswhichtroubleIndia;butnoneof

these three smaller countries within the subcontinent can ever rise to threaten itsundisputedmaster.NorwouldPakistanbeconsideredathreattoIndiahaditnotmasteredthetechnologyofdevelopingnuclearweaponsinthedecadesfollowingthepartitionoftheregionin1947.Theareawithinourframe,despitebeingrelativelyflat,hasalwaysbeentoolargeand

diverse to have strong central rule. Even the British colonial overlords,with their famedbureaucracyandconnectingrailsystem,allowedregionalautonomyandindeedusedittoplaylocalleadersoffagainsteachother.Thelinguisticandculturaldiversityispartiallyduetothedifferencesinclimate–forexample,thefreezingnorthoftheHimalayasincontrasttothejunglesofthesouth–butitisalsobecauseofthesubcontinent’sriversandreligions.Various civilisations have grown up along these rivers, such as the Ganges, the

Brahmaputra and the Indus. To this day the population centres are dotted along theirbanks,andtheregions,sodifferentfromeachother–forexamplethePunjab,withitsSikhmajority,andtheTamilspeakersofTamilNadu–arebasedonthesegeographicaldivides.Differentpowershaveinvadedthesubcontinentoverthecenturies,butnonehaveever

trulyconqueredit.EvennowNewDelhidoesnottrulycontrolIndiaand,asweshallsee,toanevengreaterextentIslamabaddoesnotcontrolPakistan.TheMuslimshadthegreatestsuccess inuniting the subcontinentunderone leadership, but even Islamneverovercamethelinguistic,religiousandculturaldifferences.ThefirstMusliminvasionwasasearlyastheeighthcenturyCE,whentheArabsof the

UmayyadCaliphatemadeitasfarasthePunjabinwhatisnowPakistan.Fromthenuntilthe eighteenth century various foreign invasions brought Islam to the subcontinent;however, east of the Indus River Valley a majority of the Hindu population resistedconversion,thussowingtheseedsfortheeventualpartitionofIndia.TheBritishcame,andwent,andwhentheywentthecentrecouldnothold,andthings

fell apart. In truth, therewas no real centre: the region has always been divided by theancient disparities of the languages of the Punjab and Gujarat, the mountains and thedeserts, and Islam and Hinduism. By 1947 the forces of post-colonial nationalism andreligiousseparatismbrokethesubcontinent intotwo,andlaterthree,majorpieces: India,Pakistan and Bangladesh. The British, exhausted by twoworldwars, and aware that thedaysofempirewerecomingtoaclose,didnotcoverthemselvesingloryinthemanneroftheirleaving.On 3 June 1947 the announcement wasmade in the House of Commons: the British

wouldwithdraw–IndiawastobepartitionedintothetwoindependentdominionsofIndia

andPakistan.Seventy-threedayslater,on15August,theywereallbutgone.An extraordinary movement of people followed as millions of Muslims fled the new

bordersof India,headingwest toPakistan,withmillionsofHindusandSikhscoming theother way. Columns of people 30,000-strong were on the roads as whole communitiesmoved.Trainspackedfullofrefugeescriss-crossedthesubcontinentdisgorgingpeopleintocitiesandmakingthereturnjourneyfilledwiththoseheadingintheotherdirection.It was carnage. Riots broke out across both countries as Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and

othersturnedoneachotherinpanicandfear.TheBritishgovernmentwasheditshandsandrefused pleas from the new Indian and Pakistani leaders for the few troops still in thecountry to help maintain order. Estimates of the death toll vary, but at least a millionpeople died and 15millionwere displaced. TheMuslim-majority areas in thewest – theIndus Valley regionwest of the Thar Desert and the Ganges River basin – becameWestPakistanwhilethosetotheeastofCalcutta(nowKolkata)becameEastPakistan.What did Pakistan get out of this? Much less than India. It inherited India’s most

troublesomeborder,theNorthWestFrontierwithAfghanistan,anditwasastatesplitintotwonon-contiguousregionswithlittletoholdittogetheras1,000milesofIndianterritoryseparatedWestPakistanfromEastPakistan.AlaskaandtherestoftheUSAhavemanagedthe problem of non-contiguous distance without difficulty, but they are culturally,linguistically and economically linked and operating in a stable environment. The onlyconnectionbetweenthetwopartsofPakistanwasIslam.Theyneverreallycametogether,soitwasnosurprisewhentheyweretornapart;in1971EastPakistanrebelledagainstthedominance ofWest Pakistan, India intervened and, aftermuch bloodshed, East Pakistanseceded,becomingBangladesh.However,backin1947,twenty-fiveyearsaftertheendoftheOttomanEmpire,Jinnah

and the other leaders of the new Pakistan, amidmuch fanfare and promises of a brightfuture,claimedtheyhadcreatedaunitedMuslimhomeland.Pakistan is geographically, economically, demographically andmilitarilyweaker than

India. Its national identity is also not as strong. India, despite its size, cultural diversity,and secessionist movements, has built a solid secular democracy with a unified sense ofIndianidentity.PakistanisanIslamicstatewithahistoryofdictatorshipandpopulationswhoseloyaltyisoftenmoretotheirculturalregionthantothestate.SeculardemocracyhasservedIndiawell,butthe1947divisiondidgiveitaheadstart.

WithinthenewbordersofIndiawasthevastmajorityofthesubcontinent’sindustry,mostofthetaxableincomebaseandthemajorityofthemajorcities.ForexampleCalcutta,withits port and banking sector, went to India, thus depriving East Pakistan of this majorincomeproviderandconnectiontotheoutsideworld.

Pakistanreceivedjust17percentofthefinancialreserveswhichhadbeencontrolledbythepre-partitiongovernment.Itwasleftwithanagriculturalbase,nomoneytospendondevelopment,avolatilewesternfrontierandastatedividedwithinitselfinmultipleways.ThenamePakistangivesuscluesaboutthesedivisions;pakmeans‘pure’andstanmeans

‘land’inUrdu,soitisthelandofthepure,butitisalsoanacronym.ThePisforPunjab,AisforAfghania(thePashtunareabytheAfghanborder),KforKashmir,SforSindhandTstandsfor‘tan’,asinBaluchistan.From these fivedistinct regions, eachwith theirown language,one statewas formed,

butnotanation.Pakistan trieshard to createa senseofunity,but it remains rare foraPunjabitomarryaBaluchi,oraSindhtomarryaPashtun.ThePunjabiscomprise60percentofthepopulation,theSindhs14percent,Pashtuns13.5percentandBaluchis4.5percent.Religioustensionsareeverpresent–notonlyintheantagonismsometimesshowntothecountry’sChristianandHinduminorities,butalsobetweenthemajoritySunniandtheminorityShiaMuslims.InPakistanthereareseveralnationswithinonestate.

TheregionsthatmakeupIndiaandPakistan–manyhavetheirowndistinctidentitiesandlanguages.

Theofficial languageisUrdu,whichisthemothertongueoftheMuslimsofIndiawhofledin1947,mostofwhosettledinthePunjab.Thisdoesnotendearthelanguagetotherest of the country. The Sindh region has long chafed at what it feels to be PunjabidominanceandmanySindhsthinktheyaretreatedassecond-classcitizens.ThePashtunsofthe North West Frontier have never accepted the rule of outsiders: parts of the frontierregionarenamed theFederallyAdministeredTribalAreas,but in reality theyhaveneverbeenadministered fromIslamabad.KashmirremainsdividedbetweenPakistanandIndia,andalthoughamajorityofKashmiriswantindependence,theonethingIndiaandPakistancanagreeonisthattheycannothaveit.Baluchistanalsohasanindependencemovementwhichperiodicallyrisesupagainstthestate.Baluchistan is of crucial importance: while it may only contain a small minority of

Pakistan’spopulation,withoutitthereisnoPakistan.Itcomprisesalmost45percentofthecountry andholdsmuchof its natural gas andmineralwealth.Another sourceof incomebeckonswiththeproposedoverlandroutestobringIranianandCaspianSeaoilupthroughPakistantoChina.The jewel in thisparticularcrownis thecoastalcityofGwadar.ManyanalystsbelievethisstrategicassetwastheSovietUnion’slong-termtargetwhenitinvadedAfghanistan in 1979:Gwadarwould have fulfilledMoscow’s long-held dreamof awarm-water port. The Chinese have also been attracted by this jewel and invested billions ofdollarsintheregion.Adeep-waterportwasinauguratedin2007andthetwocountriesarenowworkingtolinkittoChina.Inthelongrun,ChinawouldliketousePakistanasalandrouteforitsenergyneeds.ThiswouldallowittobypasstheStraitofMalacca,whichaswesawinthechapteronChinaisachokepointthatcouldstrangleChineseeconomicgrowth.In the spring of 2015, the two countries agreed a $46 billion deal to build a

superhighwayofroads,railwaysandpipelinesrunning1,800milesfromGwadartoChina’sXinjiang region. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, as it is called, will give ChinadirectaccesstotheIndianOceanandbeyond.MassiveChineseinvestmentinbuildingalandroutesuchasthiswouldmakePakistan

very happy, and this is one of the reasons Pakistan will always seek to crush anysecessionist movements that arise in the province. However, until more of the wealthBaluchistancreatesisreturnedhomeandusedforitsowndevelopment,theareaisdestinedtoremainrestiveandoccasionallyviolent.Islam, cricket, the intelligence services, the military and fear of India are what hold

Pakistantogether.Noneofthesewillbeenoughtopreventitfrombeingpulledapartiftheforcesof separatismgrowstronger. IneffectPakistanhasbeen ina stateofcivilwar formorethanadecade,followingperiodicandill-judgedwarswithitsgiantneighbourIndia.The firstwas in 1947, shortly after partition, andwas fought overKashmir,which in

1948 ended up divided along the Line of Control (also known as Asia’s Berlin Wall);however,bothIndiaandPakistancontinuetoclaimsovereignty.Nearly twenty years later Pakistan miscalculated the strength of the Indian military

becauseofIndia’spoorperformanceinthe1962India–Chinawar.TensionsbetweenIndiaandChinahad risendue to theChinese invasionofTibet,which in turnhad led India togiverefugetotheDalaiLama.DuringthisbriefconflicttheChinesemilitaryshowedtheirsuperiorityandpushed forwardalmost into thestateofAssamnear the Indianheartland.ThePakistanmilitarywatchedwithglee then,overestimating theirownprowess,went towarwithIndiain1965andlost.In 1984 Pakistan and India fought skirmishes at an altitude of 22,000 feet on the

SiachenGlacier,thoughttobethehighestbattleinhistory.Morefightingbrokeoutin1985,1987and1995.PakistancontinuedtotrainmilitantstoinfiltrateacrosstheLineofControlandanotherbattlebrokeoutoverKashmirin1999.Bythenbothcountrieswerearmedwithnuclearweapons, and for severalweeks the unspoken threat of an escalation to nuclearwarhoveredovertheconflictbeforeAmericandiplomacykickedinandthetwosidesweretalked down. They came close to war again in 2001, and gunfire still breaks outsporadicallyalongtheborder.Militarily,IndiaandPakistanarepittedagainsteachother.Bothsidessaytheirposture

is defensive, but neither believes the other and so they continue to mass troops on theborder,lockedtogetherinapotentialdanceofdeath.TherelationshipbetweenIndiaandPakistanwillneverbefriendly,butwereitnotfor

thethornofKashmirinbothsidesitcouldpotentiallybecordial.Asitis,Indiaiscontenttosee Pakistan dividedwithin itself andwillwork tomaintain that situation, and PakistanwillseektoundermineIndia,withelementswithinthestateevensupportingterrorattacksinsideIndiasuchastheMumbaimassacreof2008.TheKashmirissueispartiallyoneofnationalpride,butitisalsostrategic.Fullcontrol

ofKashmirwouldgiveIndiaawindowintoCentralAsiaandaborderwithAfghanistan.Itwould also deny Pakistan a border with China and thus diminish the usefulness of aChinese–Pakistani relationship. The Pakistani government likes to trumpet that itsfriendshipwithChinais‘tallerthanthemountainsanddeeperthantheoceans’.Thisisnottrue,butitisusefulinsometimesmakingtheAmericansnervousaboutcuttingPakistanofffromthemassivefinancialaiditreceivesfromWashington.If Pakistanhad full control ofKashmir itwould strengthen Islamabad’s foreign policy

options and deny India opportunities. It would also help Pakistan’s water security. TheIndusRiveroriginatesinHimalayanTibetbutpassesthroughtheIndian-controlledpartofKashmirbeforeenteringPakistanandthenrunningthelengthofthecountryandemptying

intotheArabianSeaatKarachi.The Indusand its tributariesprovidewater to two-thirdsof thecountry:without it the

cottonindustryandmanyothermainstaysofPakistan’sstrugglingeconomywouldcollapse.Byatreatythathasbeenhonouredthroughalloftheirwars,IndiaandPakistanagreedtoshare the waters; but both populations are growing at an alarming rate, and globalwarmingcoulddiminish thewater flow.AnnexingallofKashmirwould securePakistan’swatersupply.Giventhestakes,neithersidewillletgo;anduntiltheyagreeonKashmirthekey to unlocking the hostility between them cannot be found. Kashmir looks destined toremain a place where a sporadic proxy war between Pakistani-trained fighters and theIndianarmyisconducted–aconflictwhichthreatenstospilloverintofull-scalewarwiththeinherentdangeroftheuseofnuclearweapons.Bothcountrieswillalsocontinuetofightanotherproxywar–inAfghanistan–especiallynowthatmostNATOforceshaveleft.Pakistanlacksinternal‘strategicdepth’–somewheretofallbacktointheeventofbeing

overrunfromtheeast–fromIndia.ThePakistan/Indianborderincludesswamplandinthesouth,theTharDesertandthemountainsofthenorth;allareextremelydifficultterritoryforanarmytocross.Itcanbedoneandbothsideshavebattleplansofhowtofightthere.TheIndianArmyplaninvolvesblockadingtheportofKarachianditsfuelstoragedepotsbylandandsea,butaneasierinvasionrouteisbetweenthesouthandthenorth–itliesinthecentre,inthemorehospitablePunjab,andinthePunjabisPakistan’scapital–Islamabad.ThedistancefromtheIndianbordertoIslamabadislessthan250miles,mostofitflat

ground. In the event of a massive, overwhelming, conventional attack the Indian armycouldbe in thecapitalwithina fewdays.That theyprofessnodesire todo so isnot thepoint:fromPakistan’spointofviewtheymight,andthegeographicalpossibilityisenoughforPakistantorequireaPlanAandaPlanBtocountertherisk.PlanAistohaltanIndianadvanceinthePunjabandpossiblycounter-attackacrossthe

borderandcuttheIndianHighway1A,whichisavitalsupplyroutefortheIndianmilitary.TheIndianArmyismorethan1millionstrong,twicethesizeofPakistan’s,butifcan’tbesupplied,itcan’tfight.PlanBistofallbackacrosstheAfghanborderifrequired,andthatrequiresa sympatheticgovernment inKabul.Hencegeographyhasdictated thatPakistanwillinvolveitselfinAfghanistan,aswillIndia.To thwart each other, each side seeks tomould the government of Afghanistan to its

liking–or,toputitanotherway,eachsidewantsKabultobeanenemyofitsenemy.When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979 India gave diplomatic support to

Moscow,butPakistanwasquicktohelptheAmericansandSaudistoarm,trainandpayfortheMujahedeentofighttheRedArmy.OncetheSovietswerebeatenPakistan’sintelligenceservice,theISI,helpedtocreate,andthenback,theAfghanTaliban,whichdulytookover

thecountry.Pakistan had a natural ‘in’ with the Afghan Taliban. Most are Pashtun, the same

ethnicity as the majority of the Pakistanis of the North West Frontier (now known asKhyberPakhtunkhwa).TheyhaveneverthoughtofthemselvesastwopeoplesandconsidertheborderbetweenthemasaWesterninvention,whichinsomewaysitis.The Afghan–Pakistani border is known as the Durand Line. SirMortimer Durand, the

ForeignSecretaryofthecolonialgovernmentofIndia,drewitin1893andthethenrulerofAfghanistan agreed to it. However, in 1949 the Afghan government ‘annulled’ theagreement,believingittobeanartificialrelicofthecolonialera.SincethenPakistanhastried to persuade Afghanistan to change itsmind, Afghanistan refuses, and the Pashtunseachsideofthemountainstrytocarryonastheyhaveforcenturiesbyignoringtheborderandmaintainingtheirancientconnections.Centraltothisarea,sometimescalledPashtunistan,isthePakistanicityofPeshawar,a

sort of urban Taliban military-industrial complex. Knock-off Kalashnikovs, bomb-makingtechnologyandfightersflowoutfromthecity,andsupportfromwithinsectionsofthestateflowsin.It is also a staging post for ISI officers en route to Afghanistan with funds and

instructions for the Talibanesque groups across the border. Pakistan has been involvedmilitarilyinAfghanistanfordecadesnow,butithasoverreacheditself,andthetigeritwasridinghasbittenit.In2001thePakistani-createdTalibanhadbeenhostingtheforeignfightersofAlQaeda

forseveralyears.Then,on9/11,AlQaedastrucktheUSAonitshomesoilinanoperationputtogetherinAfghanistan.InresponseUSmilitarypowerrantheTalibanandAlQaedaout of town. AfghanNorthern Alliance anti-Taliban forcesmoved down to take over thecountryandaNATOstabilisationforcefollowed.

ThemainethnicgroupsintheAfghan–Pakistaniareadidnotfitintotheborderthatwasimposedin1893bytheDurandLine;manyofthesegroupscontinuetoidentifymorewiththeirtribesbeyondthebordersthanwiththerestofthenation.

Acrosstheborderonthedayafter9/11,theAmericanshadbegunbreathingdiplomaticfireonthePakistanis,demandingtheirparticipationinthe‘WaronTerror’andanendtotheirsupportforterrorism.ThethenSecretaryofState,ColinPowell,hadphonedPresidentMusharrafanddemandedhecomeoutofameetingtotakethecall,inwhichhetoldhim:‘Youareeitherwithusoragainstus.’Ithasneverbeenconfirmedby theAmerican side,butMusharrafhaswritten that the

callwasfollowedupbyPowell’sdeputyRichardArmitageringingtheheadoftheISIandtellinghim‘thatifwechosetheterrorists,thenweshouldbepreparedtobebombedbacktothe Stone Age’. Pakistan co-operated, and that was that. Except – they hadn’t fully co-operated,andthatwasn’tthat.Islamabadwasforcedtoact,anddid;butnoteveryoneinthePakistanisystemwason

board.Thegovernmentbannedseveralmilitantgroupsandtriedtoreininreligiousgroupsitdeemedextremist.By2004 itwas involvedmilitarily against groups in theNorthWestFrontierandprivatelyacceptedtheAmericanpolicyofdronestrikesonitsterritorywhilstpublicallydecryingthem.These were tough decisions. The Pakistan military and ISI had to turn on the very

Taliban leaders they had trained and formed friendships with in the 1990s. The Talibangroups reactedwith fury, seizing complete control of several regions in the tribal areas.

Musharraf was the target of three failed assassination attempts, his would-be successorBenazir Bhutto was murdered, and amid the chaos of bombing campaigns and militaryoffensivesupto50,000Pakistanicivilianshavebeenkilled.TheAmerican/NATO operation inAfghanistan, and the Pakistanimeasures across the

border,hadhelpedscattertheArab,ChechenandotherforeignfightersofAlQaedatothecornersof theearth,where their leadershipwashunteddownandkilled;but theTalibanhad nowhere to go – they were Afghans and Pakistanis – and, as they told these newtechnologically advanced foreign invaders fromAmerica and Europe, ‘Youmay have thewatches–butwehavethetime.’Theywouldwaitouttheforeignersnomatterwhatwasthrownatthem,andinthistheywouldbehelpedbyelementsinPakistan.Withinacoupleofyears itbecameclear: theTalibanhadnotbeendefeated, theyhad

meltedintowheretheycamefrom,thePashtunpopulation,andwerenowemergingagainattimesandplacesoftheirchoosing.TheAmericans cameupwith a ‘hammer and anvil’ strategy. Theywouldhammer the

AfghanTalibanagainsttheanvilofthePakistanioperationontheothersideoftheborder.The ‘anvil’ in the tribalareas turnedout instead tobea sponge that soakedupwhateverwasthrownatit,includinganyAfghanTalibanretreatingfromtheAmericanhammer.In2006 theBritishdecided theywouldstabiliseHelmandProvince in thesouth,where

theAfghan government’s remit did not run far outside of the provincial capital, LashkarGah.ThiswasAfghanPashtunheartlandterritory.TheBritishwentinwithgoodintentions,they knew their history, but it seems they just ignored it – the reason why remains amystery.ThethenBritishDefenceSecretaryJohnReidiswronglyquoted,andblamed,forhavingsaidthatsummerthathe ‘hopednotashotwillbefiredinanger’. Infacthesaid,‘We’reinthesouthtohelpandprotecttheAfghanpeopletoreconstructtheireconomyanddemocracy.Wewouldbeperfectlyhappy to leave in threeyears’ timewithout firingoneshot.’Thatmayhavebeenafineaspiration,butwas itever feasible?Thatsummer,afterhe

gave a briefing at the Foreign Office in London, I had an exchange with the DefenceSecretary,asfollows:

‘Don’tworry,Tim.We’renotgoingaftertheTaliban,we’retheretoprotectpeople.’‘Don’tworry,SecretaryofState,theTalibanaregoingtocomeafteryou.’

It was an amicable exchange, conducted beforemore than 450 British soldiers had beenkilled, but to this day I don’t know if the British government was softening up public

opinion ahead of the deployment of troopswhilst privately predicting itwould be toughgoing,orwhetheritwasbeinginexplicablynaiveaboutwhatlayahead.SotheTalibanbledtheBritish,bledtheAmericans,bledNATO,waitedNATOout,and

afterthirteenyearsNATOwentaway.DuringthiswholeperiodmembersofthehighestlevelsofPakistan’sestablishmentwere

playing a double game. America might have its strategy, but Pakistan knew what theTalibanknew:thatonedaytheAmericanswouldgoaway,andwhentheyleft,Pakistan’sforeignpolicywouldstill requireaPakistan-friendlygovernment inAfghanistan.Factionswithin the Pakistanmilitary and government had continued to give help to the Taliban,gamblingthatafterNATO’sretreatthesouthernhalfofAfghanistanattheveryleastwouldreverttoTalibandominance,thusensuringthatKabulwouldneedtotalktoIslamabad.Pakistan’s perfidy was laid bare when the Americans eventually found Al Qaeda’s

leader,OsamabinLaden,hidinginplainsightofthegovernmentinAbbottabad,amilitarygarrisontown.Bythatpoint,suchwastheAmericans’lackoftrustintheirPakistani‘allies’thattheyfailedtotellIslamabadinadvanceabouttheSpecialForcesteamwhichflewintokill bin Laden. This was a breach of sovereignty that humiliated the military andgovernmentofPakistan,asdidtheargumentwhichwent:‘Ifyoudidn’tknowhewasthereyouwereincompetent;ifyoudidyouwerecomplicit.’ThePakistanigovernmenthadalwaysdeniedplayingthedoublegamethatresultedin

thedeathsofhugenumbersofAfghansandPakistanis,aswellasrelativelysmallnumbersofAmericans.AftertheAbbottabadmissionIslamabadcontinuedthedenials,butnowtherewere fewer people who believed them. If elements of the Pakistani establishment wereprepared to give succour toAmerica’smostwantedman, even thoughhewasby thenoflimited value to them, it was obvious they would support groups which furthered theirambitionstoinfluenceeventsinAfghanistan.Theproblemwasthatthosegroupsnowhadtheir counterparts in Pakistan and they wanted to influence events there. The biter wasbitten.The Pakistani Taliban is a natural outgrowth of the Afghan version. Both are

predominantlyPashtunandneitherwillacceptdomination fromanynon-Pashtunpower,beittheBritisharmyofthenineteenthcenturyorthePunjabi-dominatedPakistaniarmyofthetwenty-firstcentury.This was always understood and accepted by Islamabad. The Pakistani government

pretendeditruledtheentirecountry,andthePashtunoftheNorthWestFrontierpretendedtheywereloyaltothePakistanistate.Thisrelationshipworkeduntil11September2001.TheyearssincethenhavebeenexceptionallyhardonPakistan.Theciviliandeathtollis

enormous and foreign investment has dwindled away,making ordinary life even harder.

Thearmy,forcedtogoupagainstwhatwasadefactoally,haslostupto5,000menandthecivilwarhasendangeredthefragileunityofthestate.Bythespringof2015thingshadbecomeeventougher.NATOhadleftAfghanistanand

theAmericanshadannouncedanend to combatmissions, leavingbehindonlya residualforce. Officially this is to conduct Special Forces operations and training missions;unofficially it is to try to ensure that Kabul does not fall to the Taliban.Without NATOharrying the Taliban on the Afghan side of the border, Pakistan’s job of beating thePakistaniTalibanhasbecomeevenharder.WashingtoncontinuestopressIslamabad,andthisleavesseveralpossiblescenarios:

•ThefullweightofthePakistanimilitaryfallsupontheNorthWestFrontieranddefeatstheTaliban.

•TheTalibancampaigncontinuestohastenthefracturingofPakistanuntilitbecomesafailedstate.

•TheAmericansloseinterest,thepressureonIslamabadrelentsandthegovernmentcompromiseswiththeTaliban.Thesituationreturnstonormal,withtheNorthWestFrontierleftalonebutPakistancontinuingtopushitsagendainAfghanistan.

Of these scenarios, the least likely is the first. No foreign force has ever defeated thetribes of the North West Frontier, and a Pakistani army containing Punjabis, Sindhis,BaluchisandKashmiris(andsomePashtun)isconsideredaforeignforceonceitmovesintothetribalareas.Scenario two is possible but, after being deaf to years ofwake-up calls, the Taliban’s

2014massacreof132schoolchildren inPeshawardoes seemtohave joltedenoughof thePakistaniestablishmenttomakeitrealisethatthemovementithelpedtocreatemightnowdestroyit.This makes scenario three the most likely. The Americans have limited interest in

Afghanistan so long as the Taliban quietly promise not to host an international jihadistgroupagain.ThePakistaniswillmaintain enough linkswith theAfghanTalibs to ensurethatgovernmentsinKabulwilllistentoIslamabadandnotcosyuptoIndia,andoncethepressureisofftheycandoadealwiththePakistaniTaliban.Noneof thiswouldhavebeennecessary if theAfghanTaliban, inpart createdby the

Pakistani ISI,hadnotbeen stupidenough tohost theArabsofbinLaden’sAlQaedaandthen after 9/11 had not fallen back upon the Pashtun culture of honouring guests, thusrefusingtogivethemupwhentheAmericanscamecalling.Asfor India, itcanmulti-task– indeedithasto,giventhat ithasmoretothinkabout

than only Pakistan, even if it is the number one foreign policy priority for New Delhi.

Havingahostilenuclear-armedstatenextdoor isboundto focus themind,but Indiaalsohas to concentrate on managing 1.3 billion people whilst simultaneously emerging as apotentialworldpower.Its relationshipwithChinawould dominate its foreign policy, but for one thing – the

Himalayas.Withouttheworld’stallestmountainrangebetweenthem,whatisalukewarmrelationshipwould probably be frosty. A glance at themap indicates two huge countriescheekbyjowl,butacloserlookshowstheyarewalledofffromoneanotheralongwhattheCIAWorldFactbooklistsas1,652milesofborder.There are issues which cause friction, chief among them Tibet, the highest region on

earth.Aspreviouslydiscussed,ChinawantedTibet,both toprevent India fromhaving it,and–almostasbadinBeijing’sview–topreventanindependentTibetallowingIndiatobasemilitaryforcesthere,thusgivingthemthecommandingheights.India’s response to the Chinese annexation of Tibet was to give a home to the Dalai

Lama and theTibetan independencemovement inDharamshala in the state ofHimachalPradesh.Thisisalong-terminsurancepolicy,paidforbyIndiabutwithouttheexpectationthatitwilleverbecashedin.AsthingsstandTibetanindependencelooksimpossible;butiftheimpossibleweretooccur,eveninseveraldecades’time,IndiawouldbeinapositiontoremindaTibetangovernmentwhotheirfriendswereduringtheyearsofexile.TheChineseunderstandthatthisscenarioisextremelyunlikely,butremainirritatedby

Dharamshala.TheirresponseisseeninNepal,whereBeijingensures ithas influencewiththeMaoistmovementthere.India does notwant to see aMaoist-dominatedNepal ultimately controlled byChina,

butknowsthatBeijing’smoneyandtrade isbuying influencethere.Chinamaycare littleforMaoism these days, but it cares enough aboutTibet to signal to India that it too canaffordthepaymentsonalong-terminsurancepolicy.Any‘interference’inTibetcanbemetwith‘interference’inNepal.ThemoreIndiahastoconcentrateonthesmallerstatesinitsneighbourhood,thelessitcanconcentrateonChina.Another issue between them is the north-eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh,

whichChina claims as ‘South Tibet’. As China’s confidence grows, so does the amount ofterritorythereitsaysisChinese.UntilrecentlyChinaonlyclaimedtheTawangareaintheextremewestofthestate.However,intheearly2000sBeijingdecidedthatallofArunachalPradeshwasChinese,whichwasnewstotheIndianswhohaveexercisedsovereigntyoveritsince1955.TheChinese claim ispartly geographical andpartlypsychological.ArunachalPradeshbordersChina,BhutanandBurma,making it strategicallyuseful, but the issue isalsovaluabletoChinaasaremindertoTibetthatindependenceisanon-starter.ThatisamessageIndiaalsohastosendperiodicallytoseveralofitsownregions.There

are numerous separatist movements, some more active than others, some dormant, butnonethatlooksettoachievetheiraims.Forexample,theSikhmovementtocreateastateforSikhsoutofpartofbothIndianandPakistaniPunjabhas for themomentgonequiet,butcouldflareupagain.ThestateofAssamhasseveralcompetingmovements, includingthe Bodo-speaking peoples, who want a state for themselves, and the Muslim UnitedLiberationTigersofAssam,whowantaseparatecountrycreatedwithinAssamforMuslims.ThereisevenamovementtocreateanindependentChristianstateinNagaland,where

75percentofthepopulationareBaptist;however,theprospectoftheNagalandNationalCouncilachievingitsaimsisasremoteasthelanditseekstocontrol,andthatlookstobetrueofalloftheseparatistmovements.Despitethese,andother,groupsseekingindependence,aSikhpopulationof21million

peopleandaMuslimminorityofperhaps170million,Indiaretainsastrongsenseofitselfandunitywithindiversity.Thiswillhelpasitemergesfurtherontotheworldstage.TheworldhassomarvelledatChina’sstunningrisetopowerthatitsneighbourisoften

overlooked,butIndiamayyetrivalChinaasaneconomicpowerhousethiscentury.Itistheworld’sseventh-largestcountry,withthesecond-largestpopulation.Ithasborderswithsixcountries (seven if you include Afghanistan). It has 9,000 miles of internal navigablewaterways,reliablewatersuppliesandhugeareasofarableland,isamajorcoalproducerandhasusefulquantitiesofoilandgas,evenifitwillalwaysbeanimporterofallthree,anditssubsidisationoffuelandheatingcostsisadrainonitsfinances.Despite itsnatural riches IndiahasnotmatchedChina’sgrowth, andbecauseChina is

nowmovingout intotheworld, thetwocountriesmaybumpupagainsteachother–notalongtheirlandborder,butatsea.Forthousandsofyearstheregionsofwhatarenowmodern-dayChinaandIndiacould

ignoreeachotherbecauseoftheirterrain.Expansionintoeachother’sterritorythroughtheHimalayaswasimpossible,andbesides,eachhadmorethanenougharableland.Now, though, the rise of technology means each requires vast amounts of energy;

geographyhasnotbequeathedthemsuchriches,andsobothcountrieshavebeenforcedtoexpand their horizons and venture out into the oceans, and it is there that they haveencounteredoneanother.Twenty-five years ago India embarked on a ‘look east’ policy, partially as a block to

what it could seewouldbe the imminent riseofChina. It has ‘taken careofbusiness’ bydramatically increasing trade with China (mostly imports) while simultaneously forgingstrategicrelationshipsinwhatChinaregardsasitsownbackyard.India has strengthened its ties with Burma, the Philippines, and Thailand, but more

importantlyitisworkingwithVietnamandJapantocheckChina’sincreasingdomination

oftheSouthChinaSea.In this it has a new ally, albeit one it keeps at arm’s length – theUnited States. For

decadesIndiawassuspiciousthattheAmericanswerethenewBritish,butwithadifferentaccent and more money. In the twenty-first century a more confident India, in anincreasingly multipolar world, has found reason to co-operate with the USA. WhenPresidentObamaattendedthe2015IndianRepublicDaymilitaryparade,NewDelhi tookcaretoshowoffitsshinynewUS-suppliedC-130HerculesandC-17GlobemastertransportaircraftaswellasitsRussian-suppliedtanks.Thetwogiantdemocraciesareslowlymovingclosertogether.Indiahasalarge,well-equippedmodernnavywhichincludesanaircraftcarrier,butit

will not be able to competewith themassive BlueWater navywhichChina is planning.Instead India is aligning itselfwith other interested parties so they can together at leastshadow,ifnotdominate,theChinesenavyasitsailstheChinaseas,throughtheStraitofMalacca,pasttheBayofBengalandaroundthetipofIndiaintotheArabianSeatowardsthefriendlyportChinahasbuiltatGwadarinPakistan.WithIndia,italwayscomesbacktoPakistan,andwithPakistan,toIndia.

CHAPTER8

KOREAANDJAPAN

‘I...begantophrasealittlepunaboutKimJong-ilbeingthe“OhDearLeader”,butitdiedonmylips.’

ChristopherHitchens,Love,PovertyandWar:JourneysandEssays

H

OWDOYOUSOLVEAPROBLEMLIKEKOREA?YOUDON’T,YOU justmanageit–afterall,there’salotofotherstuffgoingonaroundtheworldwhichneedsimmediateattention.Thewholeof the region fromMalaysiaup to theRussianportofVladivostokeyes the

North/SouthKoreaproblemnervously.Alltheneighboursknowithasthepotentialtoblowupin their faces,dragging inothercountriesanddamagingtheireconomies.TheChinesedon’t want to fight on behalf of North Korea, but nor do they want a united KoreacontainingAmericanbasesclose to theirborder.TheAmericansdon’t reallywant to fightfortheSouthKoreans,butnorcantheyaffordtobeseentobegivinguponafriend.TheJapanese,withtheirlonghistoryofinvolvementintheKoreanPeninsula,mustbeseentotreadlightly,knowingthatwhateverhappenswillprobablyinvolvethem.The solution is compromise, but there is limited appetite for that in SouthKorea, and

noneatalldisplayedbytheleadershipoftheNorth.Thewayforwardisnotatallclear;itseemsasifitisalwaysjustoutofsightoverthehorizon.For severalyears theUSAandCubahavedancedquietlyaroundeachother,dropping

hints that they would like to tangowithout tangling, leading to the breakthrough in re-establishing diplomatic relations in July 2015.North Korea, on the other hand, glares atanyrequestsfromwould-besuitorstotakethefloor,occasionallypullingfaces.NorthKorea is apoverty-stricken countryof an estimated25millionpeople, ledbya

basketcaseofamorallycorrupt,bankruptCommunistmonarchy,andsupportedbyChina,partlyoutofafearofmillionsofrefugeesfloodingnorthacrosstheYaluRiver.TheUSA,anxious thatamilitarywithdrawalwouldsendout thewrongsignalandemboldenNorthKorean adventurism, continues to station almost 30,000 troops in South Korea, and theSouth, withmixed feelings about risking its prosperity, continues to do little to advancereunification.All theactors inthisEastAsiandramaknowthat if theytrytoforceananswertothe

question at the wrong time, they risk making things worse. A lot worse. It is notunreasonabletofearthatyouwouldendupwithtwocapitalcitiesinsmokingruins,acivilwar, a humanitarian catastrophe, missiles landing in and around Tokyo and anotherChinese/Americanmilitary face-offonadividedpeninsula inwhichonesidehasnuclearweapons.IfNorthKoreaimplodes,itmightwellalsoexplode,projectinginstabilityacrossthebordersintheformofwar,terrorismand/orafloodofrefugees,andsotheactorsarestuck.Andsothesolutionislefttothenextgenerationofleaders,andthenthenextone.If world leaders even speak openly about preparing for the day when North Korea

collapses,theyriskhasteningthatday;andasnoonehasplannedforit–bestkeepquiet.Catch-22.

NorthKoreacontinuestoplaythecrazed,powerfulweaklingtogoodeffect.Itsforeignpolicy consists, essentially, of being suspicious of everyone except the Chinese, and evenBeijingisnottobefullytrusteddespitesupplying84.12percentofNorthKorea’simportsandbuying84.48percentof itsexports,accordingto2014figuresbytheObservatoryofEconomicComplexity.NorthKoreaputsalotofeffortintoplayingalloutsidersoffagainsteachother,includingtheChinese,inordertoblockaunitedfrontagainstit.Toitscaptivepopulationitsaysitisastrong,munificent,magnificentstatestandingup

against all theodds andagainst the evil foreigners, calling itself theDemocraticPeople’sRepublic of Korea (DPRK). It has a unique political philosophy of ‘Juche’, which blendsfiercenationalismwithCommunismandnationalself-reliance.Inreality,itistheleastdemocraticstateintheworld:itisnotrunforthepeopleandit

isnotarepublic.Itisadynastysharedbyonefamilyandoneparty.Italsotickseveryboxinthedictatorshiptest:arbitraryarrest,torture,showtrials,internmentcamps,censorship,ruleoffear,corruptionandalitanyofhorrorsonascalewithoutparallelinthetwenty-firstcentury. Satellite images and witness testimony suggest that at least 150,000 politicalprisoners are held in giantwork and ‘re-education’ camps.NorthKorea is a stain on theworld’sconscience,andyetfewpeopleknowthefullscaleofthehorrorstakingplacethere.Suchistheself-imposedisolationofthecountry,andthestate’salmosttotalcontrolof

knowledge,thatwecanonlyguessatwhatthepeoplemayfeelabouttheircountry,systemand leadersandwhether theysupport the regime.Analysingwhat isgoingonpolitically,andwhy,isakintolookingthroughanopaquewindowwhilstwearingsunglasses.AformerambassadortoPyongyangoncetoldme:‘It’slikeyouareononesideoftheglass,andyoutrytopriseitopen,butthere’snothingtogetagripontopeerinside.’ThefoundingstoryofKoreaisthatitwascreatedin2333BCEbyheavenlydesign.The

LordofHeaven senthis sonHwanungdown to earth,wherehedescended to thePaektu(Baekdu)Mountain andmarried awomanwhoused to be a bear, and their sonDangunwentontoengageinanearlyexampleofnation-building.Theearliestrecordedversionofthiscreationlegenddatesfromthethirteenthcentury.It

may in someways explainwhy aCommunist state has a leadership that is passed downthroughonefamilyandgivendivinestatus.Forexample,KimJong-ilwasdescribedbythePyongyang propaganda machine as ‘Dear Leader, who is a perfect incarnation of theappearance that a leader should have’, ‘Guiding Sun Ray’, ‘Shining Star of PaektuMountain’,‘WorldLeaderofthetwenty-firstcentury’and‘GreatManwhodescendedfromheaven’,aswellas‘EternalBosomofHotLove’.Hisfatherhadverysimilartitles,asdoeshisson.Howdoesthegeneralpopulationfeelaboutsuchstatements?Eventheexpertsareleft

guessing.Whenyou lookat footageof themasshysteriaofNorthKoreansmourningKimJong-il,whodied in2011, it’s interesting tonote thatafter the first fewrowsof sobbing,shrieking people the level of grief appears to diminish. Is this because those at the frontknowthecameraisonthemandthusfortheirownsafetytheymustdowhatisrequired?Or have the Party faithful been put at the front? Or are they ordinary people who aregenuinelygrief-stricken,aNorthKoreanmagnificationofthesortofemotionaloutburstswesawintheUKafterthedeathofPrincessDiana?Nevertheless,theDPRKisstillpullingoffthecrazy-dangerous,weak-dangerousact.It’s

quite a trick, and its roots lie partially in Korea’s location and history, trapped as it isbetweenthegiantsofChinaandJapan.Thename‘TheHermitKingdom’wasearnedbyKoreaintheeighteenthcenturyafterit

attemptedtoisolateitselffollowingcenturiesofbeingatargetfordomination,occupationand plunder, or occasionally simply a route on theway to somewhere else. If you comefromthenorth,thenonceyouareovertheYaluRivertherearefewmajornaturaldefensivelinesallthewaydowntothesea,andifyoucanlandfromtheseathereverseistrue.TheMongols came and went, as did the Chinese Ming dynasty, the Manchurians and theJapaneseseveraltimes.Soforawhilethecountrypreferrednottoengagewiththeoutsideworld,cuttingmanyofitstradelinksinthehopethatitwouldbeleftalone.Itwas not successful. In the twentieth century the Japanesewere back, annexing the

wholecountryin1910,andlatersetaboutdestroyingitsculture.TheKoreanlanguagewasbanned, as was the teaching of Korean history, and worship at Shinto shrines becamecompulsory. The decades of repression have left a legacy which even today impacts onrelationsbetweenJapanandboththeKoreanstates.ThedefeatofJapanin1945leftKoreadividedalongthe38thparallel.Northofitwasa

CommunistregimeoverseenfirstbytheSovietsandlaterbyCommunistChina,southofthelinewasapro-AmericandictatorshipcalledtheRepublicofKorea(ROK).Thiswastheverybeginning of the Cold War era when every inch of land was contested, with each sidelooking to establish influence or control around the world, unwilling to let the othermaintainasolepresence.The choice of the 38th parallel as the line of divisionwas unfortunate inmanyways

and, according to the American historian Don Oberdorfer, arbitrary. He says thatWashingtonwas so focusedon the Japanese surrender on10August 1945 that it hadnorealstrategyforKorea.WithSoviettroopsonthemoveinthenorthofthepeninsulaandtheWhiteHouseconveninganall-nightemergencymeeting,twojuniorofficers,armedonlywithaNationalGeographicmap,chosethe38thparallelasaplacetosuggesttotheSovietstheyhalt,onthegroundsthatitwashalfwaydownthecountry.Oneofthoseofficerswas

DeanRusk,whowouldgoon tobeSecretaryofStateunderPresidentTrumanduring theKoreanWar.NoKoreanswerepresent,noranyKoreaexperts.Iftheyhadbeentheycouldhavetold

PresidentTrumanandhisthenSecretaryofStateJamesFrancisByrnesthatthelinewasthesameoneastheRussiansandJapanesehaddiscussedforspheresofinfluencehalfacenturyearlier, following the Russo–Japanese War of 1904–5. Moscow, not knowing that theAmericansweremakinguppolicyonthehoof,couldbeforgivenforthinkingthiswastheUSA’s de facto recognition of that suggestion and therefore acceptance of division and aCommunistnorth.Thedealwasdone,thenationdividedandthediecast.TheSovietspulledtheirtroopsoutofthenorthin1948andtheAmericansfollowedsuit

in the south in 1949. In June 1950, an emboldened North Korean military fatallyunderestimated America’s Cold War geopolitical strategy and crossed the 38th parallel,intenton reuniting thepeninsulaunderoneCommunistgovernment.TheNorthern forcesraceddownthecountryalmosttothetipofthesoutherncoast,soundingthealarmbellsinWashington.TheNorthKoreanleadership,anditsChinesebackers,hadcorrectlyworkedoutthat,in

astrictlymilitarysense,KoreawasnotvitaltotheUSA;butwhattheyfailedtounderstandwasthattheAmericansknewthatiftheydidn’tstandupfortheirSouthKoreanally,theirother allies around the world would lose confidence in them. If America’s allies, at theheightoftheColdWar,begantohedgetheirbetsorgoovertotheCommunistside,thenitsentireglobalstrategywouldbeintrouble.ThereareparallelsherewiththeUSA’spolicyinmodernEastAsia andEasternEurope.Countries such asPoland, theBaltic States, JapanandthePhilippinesneedtobeconfidentthatAmericahastheirbackwhenitcomestotheirrelationswithRussiaandChina.InSeptember1950theUSA,leadingaUnitedNationsforce,surgedintoKorea,pushing

theNortherntroopsbackacrossthe38thparallelandthenupalmosttotheYaluRiverandtheborderwithChina.NowitwasBeijing’sturntomakeadecision.ItwasonethingtohaveUSforcesonthe

peninsula, quite another when they were north of the parallel – indeed north of themountains aboveHamhung – andwithin striking distance of China itself. Chinese troopspoured across the Yalu and thirty-six months of fierce fighting ensued with massivecasualtiesonallsidesbeforetheygroundtoahaltalongthecurrentborderandagreedatruce,butnotatreaty.Theretheywere,stuckonthe38thparallel,andstucktheyremain.Thegeographyofthepeninsulaisfairlyuncomplicatedandareminderofhowartificial

thedivision is betweenNorthandSouth.The real (broad-brush) split iswest to east.Thewestofthepeninsulaismuchflatterthantheeastandiswherethemajorityofpeoplelive.

TheeasthastheHamgyongmountainrangeinthenorthandlowerrangesinthesouth.Thedemilitarisedzone(DMZ),whichcutsthepeninsulainhalf,inpartsfollowsthepathoftheImjin-gang River, but thiswas never a natural barrier between two entities, just a riverwithinaunifiedgeographicalspacealltoofrequentlyenteredbyforeigners.ThetwoKoreasarestilltechnicallyatwar,andgiventhehair-triggertensionsbetween

themamajorconflictisnevermorethanafewartilleryroundsaway.Japan, theUSA and SouthKorea allworry aboutNorthKorea’s nuclearweapons, but

South Korea in particular has another threat hanging over it. North Korea’s ability tosuccessfullyminiaturiseitsnucleartechnologyandcreatewarheadsthatcouldbelaunchedisuncertain,but it isdefinitelycapable,as italreadyshowed in1950,ofasurprise, first-strike,conventionalattack.SouthKorea’scapital,themega-cityofSeoul,liesjust35milessouthofthe38thparallel

and the DMZ. Almost half of South Korea’s 50 million people live in the greater Seoulregion, which is home tomuch of its industry and financial centres, and it is all withinrangeofNorthKoreanartillery.

AmajorconcernforSouthKoreaishowcloseSeoulandthesurroundingurbanareasaretotheborderwithNorthKorea.Seoul’spositionmakesitvulnerabletosurpriseattacksfromitsneighbour,whosecapitalismuchfurtherawayandpartiallyprotectedbymountainousterrain.

In the hills above the 148-mile-longDMZ theNorthKoreanmilitary has an estimated10,000artillerypieces.Theyarewelldugin,someinfortifiedbunkersandcaves.Notallof

themcouldreachthecentreofSeoul,butsomecould,andallareabletoreachthegreaterSeoulregion.There’s littledoubt thatwithintwoor threedaysthecombinedmightof theSouthKoreanandUSairforceswouldhavedestroyedmanyofthem,butbythattimeSeoulwould be in flames. Imagine the effect of just one salvo of shells from 10,000 artilleryweaponslandinginurbanandsemi-urbanareas,thenmultiplyitdozensoftimes.Two experts on North Korea, Victor Cha and David Chang, writing for Foreign Policy

magazine,estimatedthattheDPRKforcescouldfireupto500,000roundstowardsthecityinthefirsthourofaconflict.Thatseemsaveryhighestimate,butevenifyoudivideitbyfivetheresultswouldstillbedevastating.TheSouthKoreangovernmentwouldfind itselffightingamajorwarwhilstsimultaneouslytryingtomanagethechaosofmillionsofpeoplefleeingsouthevenasittriedtoreinforcetheborderwithtroopsstationedbelowthecapital.ThehillsabovetheDMZarenothighandthereisalotofflatgroundbetweenthemand

Seoul.InasurpriseattacktheNorthKoreanarmycouldpushforwardquitequickly,aidedby Special Forces who would enter via underground tunnels which the South Koreansbelieve have already been built. North Korea’s battle plans are thought to includesubmarineslandingshocktroopssouthofSeoul,andtheactivationofsleepercellsplacedinthe South’s population. It is estimated to have 100,000 personnel it regards as SpecialForces.TheNorth has also already proved it can reachTokyowith ballisticmissiles by firing

several of them over the Sea of Japan and into the Pacific, a route which takes themdirectlyoverJapaneseterritory.Itsarmedforcesaremorethanamillionstrong,oneofthebiggestarmiesintheworld,andeveniflargenumbersofthemarenothighlytrainedtheywouldbeusefultoPyongyangascannonfodderwhileitsoughttowidentheconflict.TheAmericanswouldbefightingalongsidetheSouth,theChinesemilitarywouldbeon

fullalertandapproaching theYalu,and theRussiansandJapanesewouldbe lookingonnervously.It isnot inanyone’s interest fortheretobeanothermajorwarinKorea,asbothsides

would be devastated, but that has not preventedwars in the past. In 1950,whenNorthKoreacrossedthe38thparallel,ithadnotforeseenathree-yearwarwithuptofourmilliondeaths,endinginstalemate.Afull-scaleconflictnowmightbeevenmorecatastrophic.TheROK’seconomyiseightytimesstrongerthantheNorth’s,itspopulationistwicethesizeandthecombinedSouthKoreanandUSarmedforceswouldalmostcertainlyoverwhelmNorthKoreaeventually,assumingChinadidnotdecidetojoininagain.And thenwhat? There has been limited serious planning for such an eventuality. The

Southisthoughttohavedonesomecomputermodellingonwhatmightberequired,butitisgenerallyacceptedthatthesituationwouldbechaotic.Theproblemsthatwouldbecreated

byKoreaimplodingorexplodingwouldbemultipliedifithappenedasaresultofwarfare.Manycountrieswouldbeaffectedandtheywouldhavedecisionstomake.EvenifChinadidnotwant to intervene during the fighting, itmight decide it had to cross the border andsecuretheNorthtoretainthebufferzonebetweenitandtheUSforces.Itmightdecidethata unified Korea, allied to the USA, which is allied to Japan, would be too much of apotentialthreattoallow.TheUSAwould have to decide how far across theDMZ itwould push andwhether it

should seek to secure all ofNorthKorea’s sites containing nuclear and otherweapons ofmass destructionmaterial. Chinawould have similar concerns, especially as some of thenuclearfacilitiesareonly35milesfromitsborder.OnthepoliticalfrontJapanwouldhavetodecideifitwantedapowerful,unitedKorea

across the Seaof Japan.Given thebrittle relationsbetweenTokyo andSeoul, Japanhasreasonstobenervousaboutsuchathing,butasithasfargreaterconcernsaboutChinaitwouldbelikelytocomedownonthesideofsupportingreunification,despitetheprobablescenario that it would be asked to assist financially due to its long occupation of thepeninsula in the last century. Besides, it knowswhat Seoul knows:most of the economiccostsof reunificationwillbebornebySouthKorea,and theywilldwarf thoseofGermanreunification.EastGermanymayhavebeenlaggingfarbehindWestGermany,butithadahistory of development, an industrial base and an educated population. Developing thenorth of Korea would be building from ground zero and the costs would hold back theeconomy of a united peninsula for a decade. After that the benefits of the rich naturalresources of the north, such as coal, zinc, copper, iron and rare earth elements, and themodernisationprogrammewouldbeexpectedtokickin,buttherearemixedfeelingsaboutriskingtheprosperityofoneoftheworld’smostadvancednationsinthemeantime.Thosedecisionsareforthefuture.Fornoweachsidecontinuestoprepareforawar;as

withPakistanandIndia,theyarelockedinamutualembraceoffearandsuspicion.SouthKorea is now a vibrant, integratedmember of the nations of theworld,with a

foreignpolicytomatch.Withopenwatertoitswest,eastandsouth,andwithfewnaturalresources,ithastakencaretobuildamodernnavyinthepastthreedecades,onewhichiscapableofgettingoutintotheSeaofJapanandtheEastChinaSeatosafeguardtheROK’sinterests.LikeJapanitisdependentonforeignsourcesforitsenergyneeds,andsokeepsacloseeyeonthesealanesofthewholeregion.Ithasspenttimehedgingitsbets,investingdiplomatic capital in closer relations with Russia and China, much to Pyongyang’sannoyance.Amiscalculationbyeithersidecouldleadtoawarwhich,aswellashavingdevastating

effects on the people of the peninsula, could wreck the economies of the region, with

massiveknock-oneffectsfortheUSeconomy.WhatstartedwiththeUSAdefendingitsColdWar stance against Russia has developed into an issue of strategic importance to itseconomyandthatofseveralothercountries.SouthKorea still has issueswithTokyo relatingback to the Japaneseoccupation, and

evenwhenitisatitsbest,whichisrare,therelationshipisonlycordial.Inearly2015whenthe Americans, South Koreans and Japanese got down to the detail of an agreement tosharemilitaryintelligencetheyhadeachgatheredonNorthKorea,Seoulsaiditwouldpassonly a limited amount of secret information to Tokyo via Washington. It will not dealdirectlywiththeJapanese.ThetwocountriesstillhaveaterritorialdisputeoverwhatSouthKoreacallstheDokdo

(solitary) Islands and the Japanese know as the Takeshima (bamboo) islands. The SouthKoreanscurrentlycontroltherockyoutcrops,whichareingoodfishinggrounds,andtheremay be gas reserves in the region. Despite this thorn in their sides, and the still-freshmemoriesofoccupation,bothhave reasons to co-operateand leavebehind their troubledpast.Japan’shistoryisverydifferenttothatofKorea,andthereasonforthisispartlydueto

itsgeography.TheJapaneseareanislandrace,withthemajorityofthe127millionpopulationliving

mostlyonthefourlargeislandsthatfaceKoreaandRussiaacrosstheSeaofJapan,andaminority inhabiting some of the 6,848 smaller islands. The largest of themain islands isHonshu, which includes the biggest mega-city in the world, Tokyo, and its 39 millionpeople.AtitsclosestpointJapanis120milesfromtheEurasianlandmass,whichisamongthe

reasonswhyithasneverbeensuccessfullyinvaded.TheChinesearesome500milesawayacrosstheEastChinaSea;andalthoughthereisRussianterritorymuchnearer,theRussianforces are usually far away because of the extremely inhospitable climate and sparsepopulationlocatedacrosstheSeaofOkhotsk.In the 1300s the Mongols tried to invade Japan after sweeping through China,

ManchuriaanddownthroughKorea.On the firstoccasion theywerebeatenbackandonthesecondastormwreckedtheirfleet.TheseasintheKoreanStraitwerewhippedupbywhattheJapanesesaidwasa‘DivineWind’whichtheycalleda‘kamikaze’.Sothethreatfromthewestandnorth-westwaslimited,andtothesouth-eastandeast

therewasnothingbutthePacific.ThislastperspectiveiswhytheJapanesegavethemselvesthe name ‘Nippon’ or ‘sun origin’: looking east therewas nothing between themand thehorizon, and each morning, rising on that horizon, was the sun. Apart from sporadicinvasions of Korea they mostly kept themselves to themselves until the modern world

arrived,andwhenitdid,afterfirstpushingitaway,theywentouttomeetit.OpinionsdifferaboutwhentheislandsbecameJapan,butthereisafamouslettersent

from what we know as Japan to the Emperor of China in 617 CE in which a Japaneseleading noblemanwrites: ‘Here I the emperor of the countrywhere the sun rises send aletter to theemperorof thecountrywhere thesunsets.Areyouhealthy?’HistoryrecordsthattheChineseEmperortookadimviewofsuchperceivedimpertinence.Hisempirewasvast, while the main Japanese islands were still only loosely united, a situation whichwouldnotchangeuntilapproximatelythesixteenthcentury.TheterritoryoftheJapaneseislandsmakesupacountrywhichisbiggerthanthetwo

Koreascombined,or inEuropean termsbigger thanGermany.However, three-quartersofthelandisnotconducivetohumanhabitation,especiallyinthemountainousregions,andonly13percentissuitableforintensivecultivation.ThisleavestheJapaneselivingincloseproximitytoeachotheralongthecoastalplainsandinrestrictedinlandareas,wheresomesteppedricefieldscanexistinthehills.ItsmountainsmeanthatJapanhasplentyofwater,butthelackofflatlandalsomeansthatitsriversareunsuitedtonavigationandthereforetrade,aproblemexacerbatedbythefactthatfewoftheriversjoineachother.SotheJapanesebecameamaritimepeople,connectingandtradingalongthecoastsof

theirmyriadislands,makingforaysintoKorea,andthenaftercenturiesofisolationpushingouttodominatethewholeregion.BythebeginningofthetwentiethcenturyJapanwasanindustrialpowerwiththethird-

largestnavyintheworld,andin1905itdefeatedtheRussiansinawarfoughtonlandandat sea. However, the very same island-nation geography that had allowed it to remainisolatedwasnowgivingitnochoicebuttoengagewiththeworld.Theproblemwasthatitchosetoengagemilitarily.Both the First Sino-JapaneseWar and the Russo-JapaneseWarwere fought to thwart

ChineseandRussianinfluenceinKorea.JapanconsideredKoreatobe,inthewordsofitsPrussianmilitaryadvisor,MajorKlemensMeckel,‘AdaggerpointedattheheartofJapan’.Controlling the peninsula removed the threat, and controlling Manchuria made sure thehandofChina,andtoalesserextentRussia,couldnotgetnearthedagger’shandle.Korea’scoalandironorewouldalsocomeinhandy.Japanhad fewof thenatural resourcesrequiredtobecomean industrialisednation. It

hadlimitedandpoor-qualitysuppliesofcoal,verylittleoil,scantquantitiesofnaturalgas,limitedsuppliesofrubberandashortageofmanymetals.Thisisastruenowasitwas100yearsago,althoughoffshoregasfieldsarebeingexploredalongwithunderseadepositsofpreciousmetals. Nevertheless it remains theworld’s largest importer of natural gas, andthird-largestimporterofoil.

Itwas the thirst for theseproducts that caused Japan to rampageacrossChina in the1930sandthenSouth-EastAsiaintheearly1940s.IthadalreadyoccupiedTaiwanin1895andfollowedthisupwiththeannexationofKoreain1910.JapanoccupiedManchuriain1932, then conducted a full-scale invasion of China in 1937. As each domino fell, theexpandingempireandthegrowingJapanesepopulationrequiredmoreoil,morecoal,moremetal,morerubberandmorefood.With theEuropeanpowerspreoccupiedwithwar inEurope,Japanwenton to invade

northern Indo-China. Eventually the Americans, who by then were supplying most ofJapan’soilneeds,gavethemanultimatum–withdrawaloranoilembargo.TheJapaneserespondedwiththeattackonPearlHarborandthensweptonacrossSouth-EastAsia,takingBurma,SingaporeandthePhilippines,amongotherterritory.This was a massive overstretch, not just taking on the USA, but grabbing the very

resources,rubberforexample,whichtheUSArequiredforitsownindustry.Thegiantofthetwentieth century mobilised for total war. Japan’s geography then played a role in itsgreatestcatastrophe–HiroshimaandNagasaki.TheAmericanshadfoughttheirwayacrossthePacific,islandtoisland,atgreatcost.By

the time they tookOkinawa,which sits in theRyukyu Island chain betweenTaiwan andJapan,theywerefacedwithastill-fanaticalenemypreparedtodefendtheapproachesandfour main islands from amphibious invasion. Massive US losses were predicted. If theterrain had been easier the American choicemay have been different – theymight havefoughttheirwaytoTokyo–buttheychosethenuclearoption,unleashinguponJapan,andthecollectiveconscienceoftheworld,theterrorofanewage.AftertheradioactivedusthadsettledonacompleteJapanesesurrender,theAmericans

helpedthemrebuild,partiallyasahedgeagainstCommunistChina.ThenewJapanshoweditsoldinventivenessandwithinthreedecadesbecameaglobaleconomicpowerhouse.However,itspreviousbelligerenceandmilitarismwerenotentirelygone:theyhadjust

beenburiedbeneaththerubbleofHiroshimaandNagasakiandashatterednationalpsyche.Japan’spost-warconstitutiondidnotallowforittohaveanarmy,airforceornavy,only‘Self-Defence Forces’which for decadeswere a pale shadow of the pre-warmilitary. Thepost-war agreement imposed by the USA limited Japan’s defence spend to 1 per cent ofGDPandlefttensofthousandsofAmericanforcesonJapaneseterritory,32,000ofwhomarestillthere.Butbytheearly1980sthefaintstirringsofnationalismcouldagainbedetected.There

weresectionsoftheoldergenerationwhohadneveracceptedtheenormityofJapan’swarcrimes,andsectionsof theyoungerwhowerenotprepared toacceptguilt for thesinsoftheirfathers.ManyofthechildrenoftheLandoftheRisingSunwantedtheir‘natural’place

underthesunofthepost-warworld.A flexible view of the constitution became the norm, and slowly the Japanese Self-

DefenceForceswereturnedintoamodernfightingunit.ThishappenedastheriseofChinawas becoming increasingly apparent and so the Americans, realising theywere going toneedmilitaryalliesinthePacificregion,werepreparedtoacceptare-militarisedJapan.In thepresent century Japanhas altered itsdefencepolicy to allow its forces to fight

alongsidealliesabroad,andchangesto theconstitutionareexpectedto followtoput thisonamoresolidlegalfooting.Its2013SecurityStrategydocumentwasthefirstinwhichitnamed a potential enemy, saying: ‘China has taken actions that can be regarded asattemptstochangethestatusquobycoercion.’The2015defencebudgetwasitsbiggesttodateatUS$42billion,mostlygoingonnaval

and air equipment, including six US-made F-35A stealth fighters. In the spring of 2015Tokyoalsounveiledwhatitcalleda‘helicopter-carryingdestroyer’.Itdidn’ttakeamilitaryexpert tonotice that thevesselwasasbigas theJapaneseaircraft carriersof theSecondWorldWar,whichareforbiddenbythesurrendertermsof1945.Theshipcanbeadaptedforfixed-wingaircraftbutthedefenceministerissuedastatementsayingthathewas‘notthinkingofusing itasanaircraftcarrier’.This isakintobuyingamotorbikethensayingthatbecauseyouwerenotgoing touse it asamotorbike, it is apushbike.TheJapanesenowhaveanaircraftcarrier.Themoney spenton that andother shinynewkit is a clear statementof intent, as is

much of its positioning. The military infrastructure at Okinawa, which guards theapproaches to the main islands, will be upgraded. This will also allow Japan greaterflexibility to patrol its Air Defence Zone, part ofwhich overlapswith China’s equivalentzoneafteranexpansionwasannouncedbyBeijingin2013.Both zones cover the islands called the Senkaku or Diaoyu (in Japanese and Chinese

respectively),which Japan controls butwhich are claimed by China too. They also formpartof theRyukyuIslandchain,whichisparticularlysensitiveasanyhostilepowermustpasstheislandsonthewaytotheJapaneseheartlands;theygiveJapanalotofterritorialsea space and theymight contain exploitable underwater gas and oil fields. Thus Tokyointendstoholdontothembyallmeansnecessary.China’sexpanded‘AirDefenceIdentificationZone’intheEastChinaSeacoversterritory

claimedbyChina,Japan,TaiwanandSouthKorea.WhenBeijingsaidthatanyplaneflyingthroughthezonemustidentityitselfor ‘facedefensivemeasures’,Japan,SouthKoreaandthe United States responded by flying through it without doing so. Therewas no hostileresponsefromChina,butthisisanissuethatcanbeturnedintoanultimatumatatimeofBeijing’schoosing.

JapanalsoclaimssovereigntyovertheKurilIslandsinitsfarnorth,offHokkaido,whichit lost to the Soviet Union in the Second World War and which are still under Russiancontrol.Russiaprefersnottodiscussthematter,butthedebateisnotinthesameleagueasJapan’sdisputeswithChina.Thereareonlyapproximately19,000inhabitantsoftheKurilIslands, and although the islands sit in fertile fishing grounds, the territory is not one ofparticularstrategicimportance.TheissueensuresthatRussiaandJapanmaintainafrostyrelationship,butwithinthatfrosttheyhaveprettymuchfrozenthequestionoftheislands.ItisChinathatkeepsJapaneseleadersawakeatnightandkeepsthemclosetotheUSA,

diplomatically and militarily. Many Japanese, especially on Okinawa, resent the USmilitarypresence,butthemightofChina,addedtothedeclineintheJapanesepopulation,is likely to ensure that the post-warUSA–Japan relationship continues, albeit on amoreequalbasis.Japanesestatisticiansfearthatthepopulationwillshrinktounder100millionbythemiddleofthecentury.China’senormouspopulationbeing1.3billionpeople,Japanwillneedfriendsintheneighbourhood.So the Americans are staying in both Korea and Japan. There is now a triangular

relationshipbetweenthem,asunderlinedbytheintelligenceagreementnotedabove.JapanandSouthKoreahaveplentytoargueabout,butwillagreethattheirsharedanxietyaboutChinaandNorthKoreawillovercomethis.EveniftheydogoontosolveaproblemlikeKorea,theissueofChinawillstillbethere,

and this means the US 7th Fleet will remain in the Bay of Tokyo and US Marines willremain inOkinawa,guardingthepaths inandoutof thePacificandtheChinaSeas.Thewaterscanbeexpectedtoberough.

CHAPTER9

LATINAMERICA

‘Weliketobecalledthe“continentofhope”...Thishopeislikeapromiseofheaven,anIOU

whosepaymentisalwaysputoff.’PabloNeruda,ChileanpoetandNobellaureate

L

ATINAMERICA,PARTICULARLYITSSOUTH,ISPROOFTHATYOUcanbringtheOldWorld’sknowledgeandtechnologytothenew,butifgeographyisagainstyou,thenyouwillhavelimited

success,especiallyifyougetthepoliticswrong.JustasthegeographyoftheUSAhelpeditbecomeagreatpower,sothatofthetwentycountriestothesouthensuresthatnonewillrisetoseriouslychallengetheNorthAmericangiantthiscenturynorcometogethertodosocollectively.The limitations of Latin America’s geography were compounded right from the

beginningintheformationof itsnationstates. IntheUSA,oncethelandhadbeentakenfrom itsoriginal inhabitants,muchof itwas soldorgivenaway to small landholders;bycontrast, in Latin America the OldWorld culture of powerful landowners and serfs wasimposed,whichledtoinequality.Ontopofthis, theEuropeansettlers introducedanothergeographicalproblemthattothisdayholdsmanycountriesbackfromdevelopingtheirfullpotential:theystayednearthecoasts,especially(aswesawinAfrica)inregionswheretheinteriorwas infestedbymosquitosanddisease.Mostof thecountries’biggestcities,oftenthecapitals,werethereforenearthecoasts,andallroadsfromtheinteriorweredevelopedtoconnecttothecapitalsbutnottoeachother.Insomecases,forexampleinPeruandArgentina,themetropolitanareaofthecapital

city contains more than 30 per cent of the country’s population. The colonialistsconcentrated on getting the wealth out of each region, to the coast and on to foreignmarkets. Even after independence the predominantly European coastal elites failed toinvest in the interior, and what population centres there are inland remain poorlyconnectedwitheachother.At the beginning of the 2010s it was fashionable among many business leaders,

professorsandmediaanalyststoarguepassionatelythatwewereatthedawnofthe‘LatinAmericandecade’. Ithasnotcome topass,andalthough the regionhasasyetunfulfilledpotential,itwillconstantlybefightingagainstthehanditwasdealtbynatureandhistory.Mexicoisgrowingintoaregionalpower,butitwillalwayshavethedesertwastelands

in itsnorth, itsmountains to theeastandwestandits jungles in thesouth,allphysicallylimiting its economic growth. Brazil hasmade its appearance on theworld stage, but itsinternal regions will remain isolated from each other; and Argentina and Chile, despitetheir wealth of natural resources, will still be far further away from New York andWashingtonthanareParisorLondon.Two hundred years after the beginning of the struggle for independence, the Latin

American countries lag far behind the North Americans and the Europeans. Their totalpopulation (including theCaribbean) is over 600million, and yet their combinedGDP is

equivalenttothatofFranceandtheUK,whichtogethercompriseabout125millionpeople.Theyhavecomealongwaysincecolonialismandslavery.Thereisstillalongwaytogo.Latin America begins at the Mexican border with the USA and stretches southwards

7,000milesthroughCentralAmerica,andthenSouthAmerica,beforeendingatTierradelFuegoonCapeHornwheretheworld’stwogreatoceans,thePacificandtheAtlantic,meet.Atitswidestpoint,westtoeast,fromBrazilacrosstoPeru,itis3,200miles.OnthewesternsideisthePacific,ontheothertheGulfofMexico,theCaribbeanSeaandtheAtlantic.Noneofthecoastlineshavemanynaturaldeepharbours,thuslimitingtrade.CentralAmericaishillcountrywithdeepvalleysandatitsnarrowestpointisonly120

milesacross.Then,runningparalleltothePacificfor4,500miles,isthelongestcontinuousmountainchainintheworld–theAndes.Theyaresnow-cappedalongtheirentire lengthandmostlyimpassable,thuscuttingmanyregionsinthewestofthecontinentofffromtheeast. The highest point in the Western Hemisphere is here – the 22,843-foot AconcaguaMountain – and the waters tumbling down from the mountain range are a source ofhydroelectric power for the Andean nations of Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia andVenezuela.Finallythelanddescends, forestsandglaciersappear,weareintotheChileanarchipelagoandthen–land’send.TheeasternsideofLatinAmericaisdominatedbyBrazilandtheAmazonriver,thesecond-longestintheworldaftertheNile.OneofthefewthingsthecountrieshaveincommonislanguagebasedonLatin.Spanish

isthelanguageofalmostallofthem,butinBrazilitisPortuguese,andinFrenchGuiana–French.But this linguisticconnectiondisguises thedifferences inacontinent thathas fivedifferent climatological regions. The relative flatland east of the Andes and temperateclimate of the lower third of South America, known as the Southern Cone, are in starkcontrasttothemountainsandjunglefurthernorthandenableagriculturalandconstructioncosts to be reduced, thusmaking them some of themost profitable regions on the entirecontinent –whereas Brazil, aswe shall see, even has difficultymoving goods around itsowndomesticmarket.Academicsandjournalistsarefondofwritingthatthecontinentis‘atacrossroads’–as

inabouttoembarkatlastonitsgreatfuture.Iwouldarguethat,geographicallyspeaking,itislessatacrossroadsthanatthebottomoftheworld;there’salotgoingonalloverthisvastspace,buttheproblemis,muchofitisgoingonalongwayfromanywhereotherthanitself.ThatmaybeconsideredaNorthernHemisphericview,butitisalsoaviewofwherethemajoreconomic,militaryanddiplomaticpowersaresituated.Despiteitsremotenessfromhistory’smajorpopulationcentres,therehavebeenpeople

living south of what is now the Mexico–USA border for about 15,000 years. They arethoughttohaveoriginatedfromRussiaandcrossedtheBeringStraitonfootatatimewhen

it was still land. The present-day inhabitants are a mixture of Europeans, Africans,indigenous tribes and theMestizopopulation,whoareofEuropeanandnativeAmericandescent.ThismixcanbetracedbacktotheTreatyofTordesillasbetweenSpainandPortugalin

1494,oneoftheearlyexamplesofEuropeancolonialistsdrawinglinesonmapsoffarawayplacesaboutwhichtheyknewlittle–or,inthiscase,nothing.Astheysetoffwestwardtoexplore the oceans, the two great European sea powers agreed that any land discoveredoutside Europe would be shared between them. The Pope agreed. The rest is a veryunfortunate history in which the vastmajority of the occupants of the lands now calledSouthAmericawerewipedout.The independence movements began in the early 1800s, led by Simón Bolívar of

Venezuela and José de San Martín of Argentina. Bolivar in particular is etched in thecollective consciousness of South America: Bolivia is named in his honour, and the left-leaning countries of the continent are loosely tied in a ‘Bolivarian’ ideology against theUSA. This is a fluctuating set of anti-colonialist/pro-socialist ideaswhich often stray intonationalismasandwhenitsuitsthepoliticianswhoespousethem.Inthenineteenthcenturymanyofthenewlyindependentcountriesbrokeapart,either

throughcivilconflictorcross-borderwars,butbytheendofthatcenturythebordersofthevariousstatesweremostlyset.Thethreerichestnations–Brazil,ArgentinaandChile–thensetoffonaruinouslyexpensivenavalarmsrace,whichheldbackthedevelopmentofallthree.Thereremainborderdisputesthroughoutthecontinent,butthegrowthofdemocracymeansthatmostareeitherfrozenorthereareattemptstoworkthemoutdiplomatically.ParticularlybitteristherelationshipbetweenBoliviaandChile,whichdatesbacktothe

1879Warof thePacific inwhichBolivia losta largechunkof its territory, including250miles of coastline, and has been landlocked ever since. It has never recovered from thisblow,whichpartiallyexplainswhyitisamongthepoorestLatinAmericancountries.Thisin turn has exacerbated the severe divide between the mostly European lowlandspopulationandthemostlyindigenouspeoplesofthehighlands.Timehas not healed thewounds between them, nor those between the two countries.

DespitethefactthatBoliviahasthethird-largestreservesofnaturalgasinSouthAmericaitwillnotsellanytoChile,which is inneedofareliablesupplier.TwoBolivianpresidentswhotoyedwiththeideawerethrownoutofofficeandthecurrentpresident,EvoMorales,hasa‘gastoChile’policyconsistingofa‘gasforcoastline’deal,whichisdismissedbyChiledespite its need for energy. National pride and geographical need on both sides trumpdiplomaticcompromise.Anotherborderdisputedatingbacktothenineteenthcenturyisindicatedbytheborders

oftheBritishterritoryofBelizeandneighbouringGuatemala.Theyarestraightlines,suchas we have seen in Africa and the Middle East, and they were drawn by the British.GuatemalaclaimsBelizeaspartofitssovereignterritorybut,unlikeBolivia,isunwillingtopushtheissue.ChileandArgentinaargueovertheBeagleChannelwaterroute,VenezuelaclaimshalfofGuyana,andEcuadorhashistoricalclaimsonPeru.Thislastexampleisoneofthemoreseriouslanddisputesinthecontinentandhasledtothreeborderwarsoverthepastseventy-fiveyears,themostrecentbeingin1995;butagain,thegrowthofdemocracyhaseasedtensions.ThesecondhalfofthetwentiethcenturysawCentralandSouthAmericabecomeaproxy

battlefield of the Cold War with accompanying coups d’état, military dictatorships andmassivehumanrightsabuses,forexampleinNicaragua.TheendoftheColdWarallowedmany nations to move towards democracy and, compared to the twentieth century,relationsbetweenthemarenowrelativelystable.TheLatinAmericans,orat leastthosesouthofPanama,mostlyresideon,ornear,the

westernandeasterncoasts,withtheinteriorandthefreezingcoldfarsouthverysparselypopulated.SouthAmericaisineffectademographicallyhollowcontinentanditscoastlineisoftenreferredtoasthe‘populatedrim’.ThisislesstrueofCentralAmericaandespeciallyMexico,where thepopulations aremore equallydistributed; butMexico inparticularhasdifficultterrain,whichlimitsitsambitionsandforeignpolicies.InitsfarnorthMexicohasa2,000-mile-longborderwiththeUSA,almostallofwhichis

desert.The landhere is soharsh thatmostof it isuninhabited.Thisactsasabufferzonebetweenitanditsgiantnorthernneighbour–butabufferthatismoreadvantageoustotheAmericans than theMexicansdue to thedisparity in their technology.Militarily, onlyUSforces could stage amajor invasion across it; any force coming the otherwaywould bedestroyed.AsabarriertoillegalentryintotheUSAitisuseful,butporous–aproblemwithwhichsuccessiveUSadministrationswillhavetodeal.AllMexicansknowthatbeforethe1846–8warwiththeUnitedStatesthelandwhichis

nowTexas,California,NewMexicoandArizonawaspartofMexico.Theconflictledtohalfof Mexico’s territory being ceded to the USA. However, there is no serious politicalmovementtoregaintheregionandnopressingborderdisputebetweenthetwocountries.Throughoutmostof the twentiethcentury theysquabbledoverasmallpieceof landaftertheRioGrande changed course in the1850s, but in1967both sides agreed the areawaslegallypartofMexico.By themiddle of the twenty-first centuryHispanics are likely to be the largest ethnic

group in the fourUSstates listedabove,andmanywillbeofMexicanorigin.Theremayeventually be Spanish-speaking political movements on both sides of the US–Mexican

bordercallingforreunification,buttemperingthiswouldbethefactthatmanyUSLatinoswillnothaveMexicanheritage,andthatMexicoisunlikelytohaveanythingapproachingthelivingstandardsoftheUS.TheMexicangovernmentstrugglestocontrolevenitsownterritory–itwillnotbeinapositiontotakeonanymoreintheforeseeablefuture.MexicoisdestinedtoliveintheUSA’sshadowandassuchwillalwaysplaythesubservientroleinbilateral relations. It lacks a navy capable of securing theGulf ofMexicoor pushingoutinto theAtlantic, and so relies on theUSnavy to ensure the sea lanes remain open andsafe.Privatecompaniesfrombothnationshavesetupfactoriesjustsouthofthebordertocut

costsinlabourandtransport,buttheregionishostiletohumanexistenceandwillremainthebuffer landacrosswhichmanyof thepoorofLatinAmericawill continue to crossastheyseekentry,legalorillegal,tothePromisedLandtothenorth.Mexico’smajormountainranges,theSierraMadres,dominatethewestandeastofthe

countryandbetweenthemisaplateau.Inthesouth,intheValleyofMexico,isthecapital– Mexico City – one of the world’s mega capital cities with a population of around 20millionpeople.Onthewesternslopesofthehighlandsandinthevalleysthesoilispoor,andtherivers

of limited assistance inmoving goods tomarket.On the eastern slopes the land ismorefertile,buttheruggedterrainstillpreventsMexicofromdevelopingasitwouldlike.Tothesouth lie the borders with Belize and Guatemala.Mexico has little interest in expandingsouthward because the land quickly rises to become the sort ofmountainous terrain it isdifficulttoconquerorcontrol.Extendingintoeithercountrywouldnotenlargethelimitedamount of profitable landMexico already has. It has no ideological territorial ambitionsand instead concentrates on trying to develop its limited oil-producing industry andattractingmoreinvestmentintoitsfactories.Besides,Mexicohasenoughinternalproblemstocopewith,withoutgettingintoanyforeignadventures–perhapsnonegreaterthanitsroleinsatisfyingtheAmericans’voraciousappetitefordrugs.TheMexicanborderhasalwaysbeenahavenforsmugglers,butnevermoresothanin

the last twenty years. This is a direct result of the US government’s policy in Colombia,1,500milesawaytothesouth.ItwasPresidentNixon in the1970swhofirstdeclareda ‘WaronDrugs’,which, likea

‘War on Terror’, is a somewhat nebulous concept in which victory cannot be achieved.However it wasn’t until the early 1990s that Washington took the war directly to theColombian drug cartels with overt assistance to the Colombian government. It also hadsuccessinclosingdownmanyoftheairandseadrugroutesfromColombiaintotheUSA.The cartels responded by creating a land route – up through Central America and

Mexico,andintotheAmericanSouthwest.ThisinturnledtheMexicandruggangstogetinon the action by facilitating the routes and manufacturing their own produce. Themultibillion-dollarbusinesssparkedlocalturfwars,withthewinnersusingtheirnewpowerand money to infiltrate and corrupt the Mexican police and military and get inside thepoliticalandbusinesselites.In this there are parallels with the heroin trade in Afghanistan.Many of the Afghan

farmersgrowingthepoppycroprespondedtoNATO’sattemptstodestroytheirtraditionalwayofmakingalivingbyeithertakinguparmsorsupportingtheTaliban.Itmaybethegovernment’spolicytowagea‘WaronDrugs’,butthisdoesnotmeanthattheordersarecarried out at a regional level, which the Afghan drug lords have penetrated. So it is inMexico.Throughouthistory,successivegovernments inMexicoCityhaveneverhadafirmgrip

onthecountry.Nowitsopponents,thedrugcartels,haveparamilitarywingswhichareaswell armed as the forces of the state, often better paid,moremotivated, and in severalregionsareregardedasasourceofemploymentbysomemembersofthepublic.Thevastsumsofmoneymadebythegangsnowswillaroundthecountry,muchofitbeingwashedthroughwhatappearonthesurfacetobelegitimatebusinesses.Theoverlandsupplyrouteisfirmlyestablished,andthedemandintheUSAshowsfew

signs of diminishing. All Mexican governments try to keep on the right side of theirpowerfulneighbourandhaverespondedtoAmericanpressurebywagingtheirown‘WaronDrugs’. Here lies a conundrum.Mexicomakes its living by supplying consumer goods toAmerica,andas longasAmericansconsumedrugs,Mexicanswill supplythem–afterall,theideahereistomakethingswhicharecheaptoproduceandsellthematpriceshigherthanthoseinlegaltrade.Withoutdrugsthecountrywouldbeevenpoorerthanit is,asavastamountofforeignmoneywouldbecutoff.Withdrugs,itisevenmoreviolentthanitwouldotherwisebe.ThesameistrueofsomeofthecountriestoMexico’ssouth.CentralAmericahaslittlegoingforitbywayofgeography,butforonething.Itisthin.

SofartheonlycountrytogainadvantagefromthishasbeenPanama,butwiththearrivalofnewmoneyfromChinathatmaybeabouttochange.

CentralAmericacouldseemanychangesintheregionsthatarereceivingChineseinvestment,suchasthedevelopmentoftheNicaraguaGrandCanal.

ModerntechnologymeanstheChinesecanseefromaglanceatasatellitephotographthetradeopportunities this thinstretchof landmightbring. In1513theSpanishexplorerVascoNúñezdeBalboahadtosailacross theAtlantic, land inwhat isnowPanama, thentrekthroughjunglesandovermountainsbeforeseeingbeforehimanothervastocean–thePacific.Theadvantagesoflinkingthemwereobvious,butitwasanother401yearsbeforetechnology caught up with geography. In 1914 the newly built, 50-mile-long, American-controlledPanamaCanal opened, thus saving an8,000-mile journey from theAtlantic tothePacificoceansandleadingtoeconomicgrowthinthecanalregion.Since 1999 the canal has been controlled by Panama, but is regarded as a neutral

internationalwaterwaywhich is safeguardedby theUSandPanamanavies.And therein,fortheChinese,liesaproblem.Panama and theUSA are friends – in fact, such good friends that in 2014 Venezuela

briefly cut ties with Panama, calling it a ‘US lackey’. The effect of the rhetoric of theincreasinglyembattledcountry’sBolivarianrevolutionaryeraistemperedbytheknowledgethat the United States is Venezuela’s most important commercial partner and thatVenezuelasuppliesaround10percentofUSoilimports.TheenergytradebetweenthemislikelytofallastheeffectsoftheUSshalerevolutionkickin,butBeijingwillbeawillingimporterofVenezuelanoil,andisworkingonhowtogetittoChinawithoutrelyingonthe

routethroughPanama.China,aswesawinChapterTwo,hasdesignsonbeingaglobalpowerandtoachieve

this aim itwill need to keep sea lanes open for its commerce and its navy.ThePanamaCanalmaywellbeaneutralpassageway,butat theendof thedaypassage through it isdependent on American goodwill. So, why not build your own canal up the road inNicaragua?Afterall,what’s$50billiontoagrowingsuperpower?The Nicaragua Grand Canal project is funded by a Hong Kong businessman named

WangJingwhohasmadealotofmoneyintelecommunicationsbuthasnoexperienceofengineering,letalonemastermindingoneofthemostambitiousconstructionprojectsinthehistoryoftheworld.MrWangisadamantthattheChinesegovernmentisnotinvolvedinthe project. Given the nature of China’s business culture and the participation of itsgovernmentinallaspectsoflife,thisisunusual.The$50billion cost estimate for theproject,which is due for completion in the early

2020s, is four times the size of the entire Nicaraguan economy and forms part of thesubstantialinvestmentinLatinAmericabyChina,whichisslowlybutsteadilysupplantingtheUSAastheregion’smaintradingpartner.ExactlywhoisfinanciallybackingMrWangisunclear,butNicaragua’sPresidentDanielOrtegasigneduptotheplanwithalacrityandwithscarcelyaglanceatthe30,000-pluspeoplewhomayberequiredtomovefromtheirlandsbecauseoftheproject.The former revolutionary socialist Sandinista firebrand now finds himself accused of

being on the side of big business. The canal will split the country in two, and sixmunicipalitieswillfindthemselvesdivided.Therewillonlybeonebridgeacrossthecanalalongitsentire length.Ortegamustknowheriskssowingtheseedsofdissent,butarguesthat the project will bring tens of thousands of jobs and much-needed investment andrevenuetothesecond-poorestcountryintheWesternHemisphere.The Nicaraguan canal will be longer than the Panama and, crucially, will be

significantly wider and deeper, thus allowing much bigger tankers and container shipsthrough, not to mention large Chinese naval vessels. It will run directly east to west,whereasthePanamaCanalactuallyrunsnorthtosouth.ThemiddlesectionwillbedredgedoutofLakeNicaragua,whichhasledenvironmentaliststowarnthatLatinAmerica’slargestfreshwaterlakemaybecomecontaminated.Given that the Panama Canal a few hundred miles to the south is being widened,

sceptics askwhy theNicaraguan version is necessary.Chinawill have control of a canalabletotakebiggerships,whichwillhelptoguaranteetheeconomiesofscaleonlyChinaiscapableof.Therearequestionsabout the futureprofitabilityof theNicaraguancanal– itmaytakedecadestomakemoney–butthisisaprojectthatappearstobemoreaboutthe

nationalinterestsofChinathanaboutcommercialprofit.Gougingalinkbetweentwooceansoutofanationstateisjustthemostvisiblesignof

China’s investment in Latin America. We’ve grown used to seeing the Chinese as majorplayersinAfrica,butfortwentyyearsnowtheyhavebeenquietlymovinginsouthoftheRioGrande.Aswell as investing in constructionprojects,China is lendinghuge sumsofmoney to

LatinAmericangovernments,notablythoseinArgentina,VenezuelaandEcuador.InreturnChinawill be expecting support in theUnitedNations for its regional claimsbackhome,includingtheissueofTaiwan.Beijingisalsobuying.TheLatinAmericanstateshavebeenpickedoffonebyonebythe

USA,whichprefers bilateral tradedeals todoingbusinesswith the regionas awhole, astheyhave todowith theEU.TheChinese aredoing the same thingbut at least offer analternative,thusreducingtheregion’sdependencyontheUSAasitsmarket.Forexample,China has now replaced theUSA as Brazil’smain trading partner, andmaydo the samewithseveralotherLatinAmericancountries.TheLatinAmericancountriesdonothaveanaturalaffinitywiththeUSA.Relationsare

dominatedbyAmerica’sstartingposition, laidout intheMonroeDoctrineof1823(aswehave seen in Chapter Three) during President Monroe’s State of the Union address. TheDoctrine warned off the European colonialists and said, in as many words, that LatinAmericawastheUSA’sbackyardandsphereofinfluence.Ithasbeenorchestratingeventsthereever sinceandmanyLatinAmericansbelieve theend resultshavenotalwaysbeenpositive.Eight decades after Monroe’s Doctrine, along came another president with ‘Monroe

reloaded’.Inaspeechin1904Theodore‘Teddy’Rooseveltsaid:‘IntheWesternHemispherethe adherence of the United States to theMonroe Doctrinemay force the United States,howeverreluctantly,inflagrantcasesof[such]wrongdoingorimpotence,totheexerciseofaninternationalpolicepower.’Inotherwords,theUSAcouldmilitarilyintervenewheneveritchosetointheWesternHemisphere.Notincludingthefundingofrevolutions,thearmingofgroupsandtheprovisionofmilitarytrainers,theUSAusedforceinLatinAmericaalmost50timesbetween1890andtheendoftheColdWar.Afterthat,overtinterferencedroppedoffrapidlyandin2001theUSAwasasignatory

tothethirty-four-nationInter-AmericanDemocraticCharterdraftedbytheOrganizationofAmerican States, which proclaims that ‘The peoples of the Americas have a right todemocracyandtheirgovernmentshaveanobligationtopromoteanddefendit.’SincethentheUSAhasconcentratedonbindingtheLatinAmericancountriestoitselfeconomicallybybuilding up existing trade pacts like the North American Free Trade Association, and

introducingotherssuchastheCentralAmericanFreeTradeAgreement.Thelackofwarmththusengenderedinsouth/northhistoricandeconomicrelationships

meant thatwhen theChinese came knocking, doors quickly opened. Beijing now sells ordonates arms to Uruguay, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru, and offers them militaryexchanges. It is tryingtobuildamilitaryrelationshipwithVenezuela,whichithopeswilloutlast the Bolivarian revolution if and when it collapses. The arms supplies to LatinAmerica are relatively small-scale but complement China’s efforts at soft power. Its solehospitalship,PeaceArk,visitedtheregionin2011.Itisonlya300-bedvessel,dwarfedbythe American 1,000-bed versions which also visit, but it was a signal of intent and areminderthatChinaincreasingly‘gets’softpower.However,withorwithoutChinesetrade,thecountriesofLatinAmericaareinescapably

locked into a geographical region – which means that the USA will always be a majorplayer.Brazil,whichmakesupfullyone-thirdofthelandofSouthAmerica,isthebestexample.

ItisalmostasbigastheUSA,anditstwenty-sevenfederalstatesequalanareabiggerthanthetwenty-eightEUcountriescombined;butunlikethemitlackstheinfrastructuretobeasrich.AthirdofBrazilisjungle,whereitispainfullyexpensive,andinsomeareasillegal,tocarveoutlandfitformodernhumanhabitation.ThedestructionoftheAmazonRainforestisalong-termecologicalproblemforthewholeworld,butitisalsoamedium-termproblemforBrazil: thegovernmentallowsslash-and-burnfarmerstocutdownthe jungleandthenusethelandforagriculture.Butthesoilissopoorthatwithinafewyearscrop-growingisuntenable.Thefarmersmoveontocutdownmorerainforest,andoncetherainforestiscutitdoesnotgrowback.Theclimateandsoilworkagainstthedevelopmentofagriculture.The River Amazon may be navigable in parts, but its banks are muddy and the

surrounding land makes it difficult to build on. This problem, too, seriously limits theamountofprofitablelandavailable.JustbelowtheAmazonregion,inthehighlands,isthesavannah and, by contrast, it is a success story. Twenty-five years ago this area wasconsidered unfit for agriculture, but Brazilian technology has turned it into one of theworld’slargestproducerofsoybeans,which–togetherwiththegrowthingrainproduction–meansthecountryisbecomingamajoragriculturalproducer.TothesouthofthesavannaharethetraditionalBrazilianagriculturallands.Wearenow

in theSouthernConeofSouthAmerica,whichBrazil shareswithArgentina,UruguayandChile.TherelativelysmallBraziliansectioniswherethefirstPortuguesecolonialistslived,and itwas tobe300yearsbefore thepopulationcouldpushout from thisheartlandandsignificantlypopulatetherestofthecountry.Tothisdaymostpeoplestillliveclosetothecoastal areas, despite the dramatic decision made in the late 1950s to move the capital

(previouslyRiodeJaneiro)severalhundredmilesinlandtothepurpose-builtcityofBrasiliainanattempttodeveloptheheartofBrazil.The southern agricultural heartland is about the size of Spain, Portugal and Italy

combinedandismuchflatterthantherestofthecountry.Itisrelativelywellwatered,butmostofitisintheinterioroftheregionandlacksproperlydevelopedtransportroutes.The same is true ofmost of Brazil. If you look atmany of theBrazilian coastal cities

fromtheseathereisusuallyamassivecliffrisingdramaticallyoutofthewatereithersideoftheurbanarea,ordirectlybehindit.KnownastheGrandEscarpment,itdominatesmuchofBrazil’scoast;itistheendoftheplateaucalledtheBrazilianShieldwhichmakesupmostofBrazil’sinterior.Becausethecountrylacksacoastalplain,toconnectitsmajorcoastalcitiesyouneedto

buildroutesupandovertheescarpment,alongtothenexturbanareaandthenbackdown.Thelackofdecentmodernroadsiscompoundedbyasimilardeficiencyofrailtrack.Thisisnotarecipeforprofitabletradingorforunifyingalargespacepolitically.It gets worse. Brazil does not have direct access to the rivers of the Rio de la Plata

region.TheRiverPlate itselfemptiesout intotheAtlantic inArgentina,meaningthat forcenturiestradershavemovedtheirgoodsdownthePlatetoBuenosAiresratherthancarrythem up and down the Grand Escarpment to get to Brazil’s underdeveloped ports. TheTexas-based geopolitical intelligence company Stratfor.com estimates that Brazil’s sevenlargestportscombinedcanhandle fewergoodsperyear thanthesingleAmericanportofNewOrleans.ThereforeBrazillacksthevolumeoftradeitwouldlikeand,equallyimportantly,most

of its goods are moved along its inadequate roads rather than by river, thus increasingcosts. On the plus side Brazil is working on its transport infrastructure, and the newlydiscovered offshore gas reserves will help pay for this, reduce reliance on Bolivian andVenezuelan energy imports and cushion the inevitable economic dips all nations suffer.Nevertheless, Brazil will require a Herculean effort for it to overcome its geographicaldisadvantages.Around25percentofBraziliansarethoughttoliveintheinfamousfavelaslums.When

oneinfourofastate’spopulationisinabjectpovertyitisdifficultforthatstatetobecomerich.ThisdoesnotmeanBrazilisnotarisingpower,justthatitsrisewillbelimited.Ashortcuttogrowthcouldbesoftpower,henceBrazil’seffortstogainapermanentseat

on theUN Security Council and its habit of building regional economic alliances such asMercosur,whichlooselytiestogetherBrazil,Argentina,Paraguay,UruguayandVenezuela.Everyfewyears,oftenledbyBrazil,theSouthAmericansattempttolaunchtheirversionoftheEU–thelatestincarnationbeingUNASUR,ofwhichtwelveSouthAmericannationsare

members.ItsheadquartersisinEcuadorbutBrazilhastheloudestvoice.Inthisitresemblesthe EU, which has an HQ in Belgium and a leading power in Germany. And there thecomparisonstops.UNASURhasanimpressivepresenceontheinternetbutitremainsmoreofawebsitethananeconomicunion.TheEUcountrieshavesimilarpoliticalandeconomicsystems andmostmembers share a currency,whereas the LatinAmericans differ in theirpolitics, economics, currencies, education levels and labour laws. They also have toovercome the constraints of distance, as well as the heights of the mountains and thedensityofthejungleswhichseparatethem.But Brazil will keep working to help create a South American powerhouse using its

diplomaticandincreasingeconomicstrength.Thecountryisbynaturenon-confrontational,its foreign policy is against intervention in other countries, and war with any of itsneighbours seemshighlyunlikely. Ithasmanaged tomaintaingood relationswithall theotherelevenSouthAmericannationsdespitehavingaborderwithnineofthem.There isa frontierdisputewithUruguay,but itdoesnot look set tobecome inflamed;

andtherivalrybetweenBrazilandArgentinaisunlikelytobeplayedoutanywheremorepolitically significant than a football pitch. In recent years Brazil hasmoved army unitsaway from its border with Argentina and has seen its Spanish-speaking neighbourreciprocate.AnArgentiniannavyvesselhasbeenwelcomedinaBrazilianportwhereasaBritish Royal Navy ship was denied such access a few years ago, thus pleasing theArgentiniansintheirongoingdiplomaticbattlewiththeUKovertheFalklandIslands.BrazilisincludedintheBRICS–agroupofmajorcountriessaidtobeontheriseboth

economicallyandpolitically,but,whileeachonemayberisingindividually,theconceptismorefashionthanreality.Brazil,Russia,India,ChinaandSouthAfricaarenotapoliticalorgeographical grouping in a meaningful way and have very little in common with eachother.IfthelettershadnotspeltwhatsoundslikeawordthentheBRICStheorywouldnothavecaughton.TheBRICSholdanannualconferenceandBrazildoessometimesliaisewithIndiaandSouthAfricaoninternationalissuesinasortofvagueechooftheColdWarNon-AlignedMovement, but it does not join Russia and China in taking a sometimes hostilestancetowardstheUSA.The North and South American giants did fall out in 2013 over an issue which still

ranklesinBrazil.ThenewsthattheUSNationalSecurityAgencyhadspiedontheBrazilianPresident,DilmaRousseff, ledher to cancel a statevisit toWashington.That anapologywas not forthcoming from the Obama administration was testament to the fact that theAmericans are irritated thatChinahas supplanted themasBrazil’smain trading partner.Brazil’s subsequent decision to buy Swedish fighter jets for its air force rather than onesfrom Boeing is thought to have been informed by the row. However, the state-to-state

relationship has partially recovered, albeit not at presidential level. Confrontation is notBrazil’s style, unlikeVenezuela under the late President Chavez. TheBrazilians know theworld thinks they are a coming power, but they also know that their power will nevermatchthatoftheAmericans.Neitherwill thatofArgentina;however, in someways it isbetterplaced tobecomea

FirstWorldcountrythanisBrazil. It lacks thesizeandpopulationtobecome the primaryregionalpowerinLatinAmerica,whichlookstobeBrazil’sdestiny,butithasthequalityoflandtocreateastandardoflivingcomparabletothatoftheEuropeancountries.Thatdoesnotmeanitwillachievethispotential–simplythat,ifArgentinagetstheeconomicsright,itsgeographywillenableittobecomethepowerithasneverbeen.The foundations for this potential were laid in the nineteenth century with military

victoriesoverBrazilandParaguaythatresultedincontroloftheflatagriculturalregionsoftheRio de la Plata, the navigable river system, and therefore the commercewhich flowsdownittowardsBuenosAiresanditsport.Thisisamongthemostvaluablepiecesofrealestate on thewhole continent. It immediately gaveArgentina an economic and strategicadvantageoverBrazil,ParaguayandUruguay–oneitholdstothisday.However,Argentinahasnotalwaysuseditsadvantagestothefull.Ahundredyearsago

it was among the ten richest countries in the world – ahead of France and Italy. But afailuretodiversify,astratifiedandunfairsociety,apooreducationsystem,asuccessionofcoupsd’étatandthewildlydifferingeconomicpoliciesinthedemocraticperiodofthelastthirtyyearshaveseenasharpdeclineinArgentina’sstatus.The Brazilians have a joke about their snobbish neighbours, as they see them: ‘Only

peoplethissophisticatedcouldmakeamessthisbig.’Argentinaneedstogetitright,andadeadcowmayhelpit.TheDeadCow,orVacaMuerta,isashaleformationwhich,combinedwiththecountry’s

othershaleareas,couldprovideArgentina’senergyneedsforthenext150yearswithexcessto export. It is situated halfway down Argentina, in Patagonia, and abuts the westernborderwithChile.ItisthesizeofBelgium–whichmightberelativelysmallforacountry,but is large for a shale formation. So far, sogood,unless youare against shale-producedenergy–but there isacatch.Toget thegasandoiloutof theshalewill requiremassiveforeigninvestment,andArgentinaisnotconsideredaforeigninvestment-friendlycountry.There’smoreoilandgasfurthersouth–infact,sofarsouthit’soffshoreinandaround

islandswhichareBritishandhavebeensince1833.Andthereinliesaproblem,andanewsstorywhichnevergoesaway.WhatBritain calls theFalkland Islands areknownasLasMalvinasbyArgentina, and

woebefallanyArgentinewhousesthe‘F’word.ItisanoffenceinArgentinatoproducea

mapwhichdescribestheislandsasanythingotherthanthe‘IslasMalvinas’andallprimaryschoolchildrenaretaughttodrawtheoutlinesofthetwomainislands,westandeast.Toregain the ‘Lost Little Sisters’ is anational cause for successive generationsofArgentinesandonewhichmostoftheirLatinneighbourssupport.InApril1982theBritishlettheirguarddownandtheArgentinianmilitarydictatorship

underGeneralGaltieri orderedan invasionof the islands –whichwas consideredahugesuccess until the British task force arrived eightweeks later andmade shortwork of theArgentinianarmyandreclaimedtheterritory.Thisinturnledtothefallofthedictatorship.If theArgentine invasionhadhappened in thepresentdecadeBritainwouldnothave

beeninapositiontoretaketheislands,asitcurrentlyhasnofunctioningaircraftcarriers–asituationthatwillberemediedby2020,atwhichtimeArgentina’swindowofopportunitycloses.However,despitethelureofoilandgas,anArgentinianinvasionoftheFalklandsisunlikelyfortworeasons.Firstly, Argentina is now a democracy and knows that the vast majority of Falkland

IslanderswishtoremainunderBritishcontrol;secondly,theBritish,oncebitten,aretwiceshy.Theymaytemporarilylackanaircraftcarriertosailthe8,000milesdowntotheSouthAtlantic,but theydonowhave severalhundredcombat troopson the islands,alongwithadvancedradarsystems,ground-to-airmissiles,fourEurofighterjetsandprobablyanuclearattack submarine lurking nearby most of the time. The British intend to prevent theArgentiniansfromeventhinkingtheycouldgetontothebeaches,letalonetaketheislands.The Argentine air force uses planes which are decades behind the Eurofighter, and

BritishdiplomacyhasensuredthatanattemptbyArgentinatobuyup-to-datemodelsfromSpainwascalledoff.BuyingfromtheUSAisanon-starterduetotheSpecialRelationshipbetween theUKandUSA,which is indeed, at times, special; so the chancesofArgentinabeinginapositiontomountanotherattackbefore2020areslim.However, that will not calm the diplomatic war, and Argentina has sharpened its

weapons on that front. Buenos Aires has warned that any oil firm which drills in theFalklands/MalvinascannotbidforalicencetoexploittheshaleoilandgasinPatagonia’sVaca Muerta field. It has even passed a law threatening fines or imprisonment forindividualswhoexploretheFalklands’continentalshelfwithoutitspermission.Thishasputmany big oil companies off, but not of course the British. However, whoever probes thepotential wealth beneath the South Atlanticwaterswill be operating in one of themostchallenging environments in thebusiness. Its gets somewhat cold andwindydown there,andtheseasarerough.Wehavetravelledasfarsouthasyoucangobeforeyouarriveatthefrozenwastelands

oftheAntarctic.Whileplentyofcountrieswouldliketoexertcontrolthere,acombination

oftheextremelychallengingenvironment,theAntarcticTreatyandlackofobtainableandvaluableresources,togetherlargelypreventovertcompetition,atleastforthepresent.Thesamecannotbesaidofitsnortherncounterpart.HeadingstraightupfromAntarcticatothenorthernmostpartoftheglobe,youreachaplacedestinedtobeadiplomaticbattlegroundinthetwenty-firstcenturyascountriesgreatandsmallstrivetoreachpolepositionthere:theArctic.

CHAPTER10

THEARCTIC

‘TherearetwokindsofArcticproblems,theimaginaryandthereal.Ofthetwo,theimaginaryarethemostreal.’

VilhjalmurStefansson,TheArcticinFactandFable

W

HENTHEICEMENCOME,THEYWILLCOMEINFORCE.Whohastheforce?TheRussians.Nooneelse has such a heavy presence in the region or is as well prepared to tackle the

severityoftheconditions.Alltheothernationsarelaggingbehindand,inthecaseoftheUSA,donotappeartobeeventryingtocatchup:AmericaisanArcticnationwithoutanArcticstrategyinaregionthatisheatingup.TheeffectsofglobalwarmingarenowshowingmorethaneverintheArctic:theiceis

melting, allowing easier access to the region, coinciding with the discovery of energydepositsandthedevelopmentof technologytogetat them–allofwhichhas focusedtheArcticnations’attentiononthepotentialgainsand losses tobemade in theworld’smostdifficult environment.Many of the countries in the region have competing claimswhichtheyhaven’tbothered topress–untilnow.But there isa lot toclaim,anda lot toargueabout.Theword ‘arctic’ comes from theGreekartikos,whichmeans ‘near the bear’, and is a

referencetotheUrsaMajorconstellationwhoselasttwostarspointtowardstheNorthStar.The Arctic Ocean is 5.4million squaremiles; this mightmake it the world’s smallest

oceanbutitisstillalmostasbigasRussia,andoneandahalftimesthesizeoftheUSA.Thecontinental shelves on its ocean bed occupy more space proportionally than any otherocean,whichisoneofthereasonswhyitcanbehardtoagreeonareasofsovereignty.The Arctic region includes land in parts of Canada, Finland, Greenland, Iceland,

Norway,Russia,SwedenandtheUSA(Alaska).Itisalandofextremes:forbriefperiodsinthe summer the temperature can reach 26 degrees Celsius in some places, but for longperiodsinwinteritplungestobelowminus45.Thereareexpansesofrockscouredbythefreezingwinds,spectacularfjords,polardesertsandevenrivers.Itisplaceofgreathostilityandgreatbeautythathascaptivatedpeopleformillennia.The first recorded expedition was in 330 BCE by a Greek mariner called Pytheas of

Massilia,who found a strange land called ‘Thule’. Back home in theMediterranean, fewbelieved his startling tales of pure white landscapes, frozen seas and strange creaturesincludinggreatwhitebears;butPytheaswasjustthefirstofmanypeopleoverthecenturiestorecordthewonderoftheArcticandtosuccumbtotheemotionsitevokes.Manyalso succumbed to itsdeprivations, especially thosevoyaging to theedgeof the

knownworldinsearchofwhatdoubterssaidwasthe‘mythical’NorthwestPassagethroughtheArcticOcean,linkingtheAtlantictothePacificOcean.OneexampleisHenryHudson.Hemay have the second-largest bay in theworld named after him, but back in 1607 heprobablywouldhavepreferred to live into old age rather thanbe cast adrift and almostcertainlysenttohisdeathbyamutinouscrewsickofhisvoyagesofdiscovery.

Asforthefirstpersontoreachthe‘NorthPole’,well,that’satrickyonegiventhat,eventhough there is a fixed point on the globe denoting its position, below it the ice you arestandingonismoving,andwithoutGPSequipmentitishardtotellexactlywhereyouare.SirEdwardParry,minusaGPS,triedin1827,buttheicewasmovingsouthfasterthanhecouldmovenorthandheendedupgoingbackwards;buthedidatleastsurvive.Captain Sir John Franklin had less luck when he attempted to cross the last non-

navigatedsectionoftheNorthwestPassagein1845.HistwoshipsbecamestuckintheicenearKingWilliamIslandintheCanadianarchipelago.All129membersoftheexpeditionperished, some on board the ships, others after they abandoned the vessels and beganwalkingsouth.Severalexpeditionsweresenttosearchforsurvivorsbuttheyfoundonlyahandfulofskeletons,andheardstoriesfromInuithuntersaboutdozensofwhitemenwhohaddiedwalkingthroughthefrozenlandscape.Theshipshadvanishedcompletely,butin2014 technology caught up with geography and a Canadian search team using sonarlocatedoneofthevessels,HMSErebus,ontheseabedoftheNorthwestPassageandbroughtuptheship’sbell.The fateof Franklin’s expeditiondidnotdetermanymoreadventurers from trying to

findtheirwaythroughthearchipelago,but itwasn’tuntil1905that thegreatNorwegianexplorerRoaldAmundsenchartedhiswayacrossinasmallershipwithjustfiveothercrew.He passed KingWilliam Island, went through the Bering Strait and into the Pacific. Heknewhe’dmade itwhen he spotted awhaling ship from San Francisco coming from theotherdirection.Inhisdiaryheconfessedhisemotionsgotthebetterofhim,anoccurrenceperhaps almost as rare as his great achievement: ‘The Northwest Passagewas done.Myboyhooddream–at thatmoment itwasaccomplished.Astrangefeelingwelledupinmythroat;Iwassomewhatover-strainedandworn–itwasweaknessinme–butIfelttearsinmyeyes.’TwentyyearslaterhedecidedhewantedtobethefirstmantoflyovertheNorthPole

which,althougheasierthanwalkingacrossit,isnomeanfeat.AlongwithhisItalianpilotUmbertoNobile and fourteen crewhe flewa semi-rigid airship over the ice anddroppedNorwegian,ItalianandAmericanflagsfromaheightof300feet.Aheroiceffortthismayhavebeen,butinthetwenty-firstcenturyitwasnotseenasonegivingmuchlegalbasistoanyclaimsofownershipoftheregionbythosethreecountries.That also applies to the impressive effort of Shinji Kazama of Japan, who in 1987

becamethefirstpersontoreachtheNorthPoleonamotorbike.MrKazamawassointrepidasnottohavereliedonashrinkingpolaricecap,andisthesortofmanwhowouldhaveriddenthroughablizzardinordertogetintothehistorybooks,butthereisnodoubtthatthereisnowlessicetocross.

Thattheiceisrecedingisnotinquestion–satelliteimagingoverthepastdecadeclearlyshowsthattheicehasshrunk–onlythecauseisindoubt.Mostscientistsareconvincedthatmanisresponsible,notmerelynaturalclimatecycles,andthatthecomingexploitationofwhatisunveiledwillquickenthepace.

ItisclearfromsatelliteimagesthattheiceintheArcticisreceding,makingthesealanesthroughtheregionmoreaccessibleforlongerperiodsoftheyear.

AlreadyvillagesalongtheBeringandChukchicoastshavebeenrelocatedascoastlinesareerodedandhuntinggrounds lost.Abiological reshuffle isunderway.PolarbearsandArctic foxes are on the move, walruses find themselves competing for space, and fish,unaware of territorial boundaries, are moving northward, depleting stocks for somecountriesbutpopulatingothers.MackerelandAtlanticcodarenowbeing found inArctic

trawlernets.Theeffectsofthemeltingicewon’tjustbefeltintheArctic:countriesasfarawayasthe

Maldives,BangladeshandtheNetherlandsareatriskofincreasedfloodingastheicemeltsandsealevelsrise.Theseknock-oneffectsarewhytheArcticisaglobal,notjustaregional,issue.Astheicemeltsandthetundraisexposed,twothingsarelikelytohappentoaccelerate

theprocessofthegreyingoftheicecap.Residuefromtheindustrialworkdestinedtotakeplace will land on the snow and ice, further reducing the amount of heat-reflectingterritory.Thedarker-colouredlandandopenwaterwillthenabsorbmoreheatthantheiceandsnowtheyreplace,thusincreasingthesizeofthedarkerterritory.ThisisknownastheAlbedoeffect,andalthoughtherearenegativeaspectstoittherearealsopositiveones:thewarmingtundrawillallowsignificantlymorenaturalplantgrowthandagriculturalcropstoflourish,helpinglocalpopulationsastheyseeknewfoodsources.There is, though,nogettingaway fromtheprospect thatoneof theworld’s lastgreat

unspoiledregionsisabouttochange.Someclimate-predictionmodelssaytheArcticwillbeice-freeinsummerbytheendofthecentury;thereareafewwhichpredictitcouldhappenmuch sooner. What is certain is that, however quickly it happens and dramatic thereductionwillbe,ithasbegun.Themeltingoftheicecapalreadyallowscargoshipstomakethejourneythroughthe

Northwest Passage in the Canadian archipelago for several summer weeks a year, thuscuttingatleastaweekfromthetransittimefromEuropetoChina.Thefirstcargoshipnottobeescortedbyanicebreakerwentthroughin2014.TheNunavikcarried23,000tonsofnickelorefromCanadatoChina.Thepolarroutewas40percentshorteranduseddeeperwatersthanifithadgonethroughthePanamaCanal.Thisallowedtheshiptocarrymorecargo, saved tens of thousands of dollars in fuel costs and reduced the ship’s greenhouseemissions by 1,300metric tons. By 2040 the route is expected to be open for up to twomonths eachyear, transforming trade links across the ‘HighNorth’ and causingknock-oneffectsasfarawayasEgyptandPanamaintermsoftherevenuestheyenjoyfromtheSuezandPanamacanals.The north-east route, or Northern Sea Route as the Russians call it, which hugs the

Siberian coastline, is also now open for several months a year and is becoming anincreasinglypopularseahighway.The melting ice reveals other potential riches. It is thought that vast quantities of

undiscoverednaturalgasandoil reservesmay lie in theArctic region inareaswhichcannowbeaccessed.In2008theUnitedStatesGeologicalSurveyestimatedthat1,670trillioncubicfeetofnaturalgas,44billionbarrelsofnaturalgasliquidsand90billionbarrelsofoil

areintheArctic,withthevastmajorityofitoffshore.Asmoreterritorybecomesaccessible,extrareservesofthegold,zinc,nickelandironalreadyfoundinpartoftheArcticmaybediscovered.ExxonMobil, Shell and Rosneft are among the energy giants that are applying for

licencesandbeginningexploratorydrilling.Countriesandcompaniespreparedtomaketheefforttogetatthericheswillhavetobraveaclimatewhereformuchoftheyearthedaysareendlessnight,whereforthemajorityoftheyeartheseafreezestoadepthofmorethansixfeetandwhere,inopenwater,thewavescanreachfortyfeethigh.Itisgoingtobedirty,hardanddangerouswork,especiallyforanyonehopingtorunan

all-year-roundoperation.Itwillalsorequiremassiveinvestment.Runninggaspipelineswillnotbepossible inmanyplaces,andbuildingacomplex liquefaction infrastructureat sea,especiallyintoughconditions,isveryexpensive.However,thefinancialandstrategicgainstobemademeanthatthebigplayerswilltrytostakeaclaimtotheterritoriesandbegindrilling,andthatthepotentialenvironmentalconsequencesareunlikelytostopthem.Theclaims to sovereigntyarenotbasedon the flagsof theearlyexplorersbuton the

UnitedNationsConventionontheLawoftheSea(UNCLOS).Thisaffirmsthatasignatoryto the convention has exclusive economic rights from its shore to a limit of 200 nauticalmiles (unless this conflictswith another country’s limits), and candeclare it anExclusiveEconomicZone(EEZ).Theoilandgasinthezoneisthereforeconsideredtobelongtothestate. In certain circumstances, and subject to scientific evidence concerning a country’scontinentalshelf, thatcountrycanapplytoextendtheEEZto350nauticalmiles fromitscoast.Themeltingof theArctic ice isbringingwith itahardeningofattitude fromtheeight

membersoftheArcticCouncil,theforumwheregeopoliticsbecomesgeopolarctics.The‘ArcticFive’,thosestateswithbordersontheArcticOcean,areCanada,Russia,the

USA,Norway andDenmark (due to its responsibility for Greenland). They are joined byIceland,FinlandandSweden,whicharealsofullmembers.TherearetwelveothernationswithPermanentObserverstatushavingrecognisedthe‘ArcticStates’sovereignty,sovereignrightsandjurisdiction’intheregion,amongothercriteria.Forexample,atthe2013ArcticCouncil, Japan and India,which have sponsoredArctic scientific expeditions, andChina,which has a science base on a Norwegian island as well as a modern icebreaker, weregrantedObserverstatus.However,therearecountriesnotintheCouncilwhichsaytheyhavelegitimateinterests

intheregion,andstillmorewhicharguethatunderthetheoryofthe‘commonheritageofmankind’theArcticshouldbeopentoeveryone.TherecurrentlyareatleastninelegaldisputesandclaimsoversovereigntyintheArctic

Ocean, all legally complicated, and some with the potential to cause serious tensionsbetweenthenations.OneofthemostbrazencomesfromtheRussians:Moscowhasalreadyputamarkerdown–a longwaydown. In2007 it sent twomannedsubmersibles13,980feet below the waves to the seabed of the North Pole and planted a rust-proof titaniumRussianflagasastatementofambition.Asfarasisknown,itstill‘flies’downtheretoday.ARussian think-tank followedthisupbysuggesting that theArcticberenamed.Afternotmuchthoughttheycameupwithanalternative:‘theRussianOcean’.ElsewhereRussiaarguesthattheLomonosovRidgeoffitsSiberiancoastisanextension

of Siberia’s continental shelf, and therefore belongs to Russia exclusively. This isproblematicforothercountries,giventhattheRidgeextendsallthewaytotheNorthPole.Russia and Norway have particular difficulty in the Barents Sea. Norway claims the

GakkelRidge in theBarentsSeaasanextensionof itsEEZ,but theRussiansdispute this,and they have a particular dispute over the Svalbard Islands, the northernmost point onEarthwith a settledpopulation.Most countries and international organisations recognisethe islands as being under (limited) Norwegian sovereignty, but the biggest island,Spitsbergen,hasagrowingpopulationofRussianmigrantswhohaveassembledaroundthecoal-miningindustrythere.Theminesarenotprofitable,buttheRussiancommunityservesasauseful tool in furtheringMoscow’sclaimsonallof theSvalbard Islands.Ata timeofRussia’schoosingitcanraisetensionsandjustifyitsactionsusinggeologicalclaimsandthe‘factsontheground’oftheRussianpopulation.Norway,aNATOstate,knowswhatiscomingandhasmadetheHighNorthitsforeign

policypriority.ItsairforceregularlyinterceptsRussianfighterjetsapproachingitsborders;theheightened tensionshavecaused it tomove its centreofmilitaryoperations from thesouth of the country to the north, and it is building an Arctic Battalion. Canada isreinforcing its cold-weather military capabilities, and Denmark has also reacted toMoscow’smuscle-flexingbycreatinganArcticResponseForce.Russia, meanwhile, is building an Arctic Army. Six new military bases are being

constructedandseveralmothballedColdWarinstallations,suchasthoseontheNovosibirskIslands,arereopening,andairstripsarebeingrenovated.Aforceofatleast6,000combatsoldiersisbeingreadiedfortheMurmanskregionandwillincludetwomechanisedinfantrybrigadesequippedwithsnowmobilesandhovercraft.ItisnocoincidencethatMurmanskisnowcalled‘Russia’snorthernenergygateway’and

thatPresidentPutinhassaidthat,inrelationtoenergysupply, ‘Offshorefields,especiallyin the Arctic, are without any exaggeration our strategic reserve for the twenty-firstcentury.’TheMurmanskBrigadeswillbeMoscow’sminimumpermanentArcticforce,butRussia

demonstrated its full cold-weather fighting ability in 2014with an exercise that involved155,000menandthousandsof tanks, jetsandships.TheRussianDefenceMinistrysaid itwasbiggerthanexercisesithadcarriedoutduringtheColdWar.During the war games Russian troops were tasked with repelling an invasion by a

foreign power named ‘Missouri’, which clearly signified the USA. The scenario was that‘Missouri’ troops had landed in Chukotka, Kamchatka, the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin insupportofanunnamedAsianpowerwhichhadalreadyclashedwithRussia.TheunnamedpowerwasJapan,andthescenario’sconflictwasprovokedbyaterritorialdisputesaidbyanalysts to be over the South Kuril Islands. The military display of intent was thenunderlinedpoliticallywhenPresidentPutin for the first timeadded theArctic regionasasphereofRussianinfluenceinitsofficialforeignpolicydoctrine.Despite Russia’s shrinking economic power, resulting in budget cuts in many

governmentdepartments, itsdefencebudgethas increasedand this ispartially topay fortheboostinArcticmilitarymuscletakingplacebetweennowand2020.Moscowhasplansforthefuture,infrastructurefromthepastandtheadvantageoflocation.AsMelissaBert,aUS Coast Guard captain, told the Center for International and Strategic Studies inWashington,DC:‘TheyhavecitiesintheArctic,weonlyhavevillages.’Allthisis,inmanyways,acontinuation,oratleastaresurrection,ofRussia’sColdWar

Arcticpolicies.TheRussiansknowthatNATOcanbottleuptheirBalticFleetbyblockadingtheSkagerrakStrait.ThispotentialblockadeiscomplicatedbythefactthatupintheArctictheirNorthernFleethasonly180milesofopenwaterfromtheKolacoastlineuntil ithitsthe Arctic ice pack. From this narrow corridor it must also come down through theNorwegianSeaandthenrunthepotentialgauntletoftheGIUK(Greenland,IcelandandtheUK)gaptoreachtheAtlanticOcean.DuringtheColdWartheareawasknownbyNATOasthe‘KillZone’,asthiswaswhereNATO’splanes,shipsandsubmarinesexpectedtocatchtheSovietfleet.FastforwardtotheNewColdWarandthestrategiesremainthesame,evenifnowthe

AmericanshavewithdrawntheirforcesfromtheirNATOallyIceland.IcelandhasnoarmedforcesofitsownandtheAmericanwithdrawalwasdescribedbytheIcelandicgovernmentas ‘short-sighted’. In a speech to the Swedish Atlantic Council, Iceland’s Justice MinisterBjörn Bjarnason said: ‘A certain military presence should be maintained in the region,sendingasignalaboutanation’sinterestsandambitionsinagivenarea,sinceamilitaryvacuumcouldbemisinterpretedasalackofnationalinterestandpriority.’However,foratleastadecadenowithasbeenclearthattheArcticisapriorityforthe

Russians in away it isnot for theAmericans.This is reflected in thedegreeof attentiongiventotheregionbybothcountries,orinthecaseoftheUSA,itsrelativeinattentionsince

thecollapseoftheSovietUnion.It takes up to $1 billion and ten years to build an icebreaker. Russia is clearly the

leadingArcticpowerwiththe largest fleetof icebreakers intheworld, thirty-twointotal,accordingtotheUSCoastguardReviewof2013.Sixofthosearenuclear-powered,theonlysuch versions in the world, and Russia also plans to launch the world’s most powerfulicebreakerby2018.Itwillbeabletosmashthroughicemorethan10feetdeepandtowoiltankerswithadisplacementofupto70,000tonsthroughtheicefields.Bycontrast,theUnitedStateshasafleetofonefunctioningheavyicebreaker,theUSS

PolarStar,downfromtheeightitpossessedinthe1960s,andhasnoplanstobuildanother.In2012ithadtorelyonaRussianshiptoresupplyitsresearchbaseinAntarctica,whichwasatriumphforgreatpowerco-operationbutsimultaneouslyademonstrationofhowfarbehind the USA has fallen. No other nation presents a challenge either: Canada has sixicebreakersandisbuildinganewone,Finlandhaseight,SwedensevenandDenmarkfour.China,GermanyandNorwayhaveoneeach.TheUSAhasanotherproblem.IthasnotratifiedtheUNCLOStreaty,effectivelyceding

200,000squaremilesofunderseaterritoryintheArcticasithasnotstakedaclaimforanEEZ.Nevertheless,itisindisputewithCanadaoverpotentialoffshoreoilrightsandaccessto

thewatersintheCanadianarchipelago.Canadasaystheyarean‘internalwaterway’,whiletheUSAsaystheyareastraitforinternationalnavigationnotgovernedbyCanadianlaw.In 1985 the USA sent an icebreaker through the waters without informing Canada inadvance, causing a furious row to break out between the two neighbours, whoserelationshipissimultaneouslyfriendlyandprickly.TheUSAisalso indisputewithRussiaovertheBeringSea,ArcticOceanandnorthern

Pacific. A 1990MaritimeBoundaryAgreementwas signedwith the then SovietUnion inwhichMoscowcededafishingregion.However,followingthebreak-upoftheSovietUnion,theRussianparliamentrefusestoratifytheagreement.TheareaistreatedbybothsidesasbeingunderUSsovereignty,buttheRussiansreservetherighttoreturntothisissue.OtherdisputesincludethatbetweenCanadaandDenmarkoverHansIsland,locatedin

the Nares Strait, which separates Greenland from Ellesmere Island. Greenland, with itspopulationof56,000people,hasself-governmentbutremainsunderDanishsovereignty.A1953 agreement between Denmark and Canada left the island still in dispute, and sincethenbothcountrieshavetakenthetroubletosailtoitandplanttheirnationalflagsonit.Allthesovereigntyissuesstemfromthesamedesiresandfears–thedesiretosafeguard

routes formilitary and commercial shipping, the desire to own the natural riches of theregion, and the fear that othersmay gainwhere you lose.Until recently the richeswere

theoretical, but the melting ice has made the theoretical probable, and in some casescertain.Themeltingoftheicechangesthegeographyandthestakes.TheArcticstatesandthe

giantenergyfirmsnowhavedecisionstomakeabouthowtheydealwiththesechangesandhowmuchattentiontheypaytotheenvironmentandthepeoplesoftheArctic.Thehungerfor energy suggests the race is inevitable inwhat someArctic specialists have called the‘NewGreatGame’.TherearegoingtobealotmoreshipsintheHighNorth,alotmoreoilrigsandgasplatforms–infact,alotmoreofeverything.TheRussiansnotonlyhavetheirnuclear-powered icebreakers, but are even considering building a floating nuclear powerplantcapableofwithstandingthecrushingweightoftenfeetofice.However,therearedifferencesbetweenthissituationandthe‘ScrambleforAfrica’inthe

nineteenthcenturyor themachinationsof thegreatpowers in theMiddleEast, IndiaandAfghanistan in the original Great Game. This race has rules, a formula and a forum fordecision-making. The Arctic Council is composed of mature countries, most of themdemocratic to a greater or lesser degree. The international laws regulating territorialdisputes,environmentalpollution,lawsoftheseaandtreatmentofminoritypeoplesareinplace.Mostof theterritory indisputehasnotbeenconqueredthroughnineteenth-centuryimperialismorbynationstatesatwarwitheachother.The Arctic states know that theirs is a tough neighbourhood, not somuch because of

warring factionsbutbecauseof thechallengespresentedby itsgeography.Thereare fiveandahalfmillionsquaremilesofoceanupintheArctic;theycanbedark,dangerousanddeadly.Itisnotagoodplacetobewithoutfriends.Theyknowthatforanyonetosucceedin the region they may need to co-operate, especially on issues such as fishing stocks,smuggling,terrorism,searchandrescueandenvironmentaldisasters.Itisplausiblethatarowoverfishingrightscouldescalateintosomethingmoreserious,

giventhattheUKandIcelandalmostcametoblowsduringthe‘CodWars’ofthe1950sand1970s.Smugglingoccurswherevertherearetransitroutes,andthereisnoreasontobelievetheArcticwillbeanydifferent;butpolicingitwillbedifficultduetotheconditionsthere.Andasmorecommercialvesselsandcruiseshipsheadintothearea,thesearchandrescueandanti-terrorismcapabilitiesof theArcticnationswillneedtogrowaccordingly,aswilltheircapacitytoreacttoanenvironmentaldisasterinincreasinglycrowdedwaters.In1965the icebreakerLenin had an accident in its reactorwhilst at sea.After its return to shoreparts of the reactor were cut out and, along with damaged fuel, placed in a concretecontainerwithasteellinerwhichwasthendumpedintothesea.SuchincidentsarelikelytooccurmorefrequentlyastheArcticopensup,buttheywillremaindifficulttomanage.Perhaps theArcticwill turnout tobe justanotherbattleground for thenationstates–

afterall,warsarestartedbyfearoftheotheraswellasbygreed;buttheArcticisdifferent,and so perhaps how it is dealt with will be different. In the film Kalifornia Brad Pitt’scharactersays,‘Thecoldmakespeoplestupidandthat’safact.’It’snot,anditdoesn’thavetobethatway.

W

CONCLUSION

EFINISHEDATTHETOPOFTHEWORLDANDSOTHEONLYWAYisup.Thefinalfrontierhasalwayscalledouttoourimagination,butoursistheagein

whichhumanityhaslivedthedreamandpushedoutintospace,amillimetreintoinfinity,on our way to the future. Humanity’s restless spirit ensures that our boundaries are notconfinedtowhatCarlSaganfamouslycalledthe‘PaleBlueDot’.Butwemustcomebackdowntoearth,sometimeswithabump,becausewehaveneither

conqueredourowngeographyyet,norourpropensitytocompeteforit.Geographyhasalwaysbeenaprisonofsorts–onethatdefineswhatanationisorcan

be,andonefromwhichourworldleadershaveoftenstruggledtobreakfree.Russia isprobably the clearest example,naturally expanding from the small regionof

flatlanditcontrolleduntil itsheartlandcoveredahugespaceringedmostlybymountainsandthesea–withjustonevulnerablepointacrosstheNorthEuropeanPlain.IftheRussianleaderswanted to createagreatnation,which theydid, then theyhad little choiceas towhat todoabout thatweakspot.Likewise, inEuropenoconsciousdecisionwasmade tobecomeahugetradingarea;thelong,levelnetworksofriversmadeitpossible,andtoanextentinevitable,overthecourseofmillennia.As the twenty-first century progresses, the geographical factors that have helped

determine our historywillmostly continue to determine our future: a century fromnow,Russiawillstillbelookinganxiouslywestwardacrosswhatwillremainflatland.IndiaandChinawillstillbeseparatedbytheHimalayas.Theymayeventuallycomeintoconflictwitheachother,butifthatdoeshappen,thengeographywilldeterminethenatureofthefight:eithertheywillneedtodeveloptechnologytoallowahugemilitaryforcetocrossoverthemountains, or, if that remains impossible and neither sidewants to descend into nuclearwar,toconfronteachotheratsea.Floridawillcontinuetoguardtheexitofandentrancetothe Gulf ofMexico. It is the Gulf’s location that is key, not who controls it. To take anextremeandunlikely scenario: imagineamajorityHispanicFloridahas seceded from theUSA and allied itselfwith Cuba andMexico. Thiswould alter only the dynamics ofwhocontrolledtheGulf,nottheimportanceofthelocation.Of course geography does not dictate the course of all events. Great ideas and great

leaders are part of the push and pull of history. But they must all operate within theconfines of geography. The leaders of Bangladeshmight dream of preventing thewatersfromfloodinguptheBayofBengal,buttheyknowthat80percentofthecountryisona

floodplainandcannotbemoved. It isapoint theScandinavianandEnglish leaderKingCanutemadetohissycophanticcourtiersintheeleventhcentury,whenorderingthewavestoretreat:nature,orGod,wasgreaterthananyman.InBangladeshallthatcanbedoneisto react to the realitiesofnature:buildmore flooddefences,andhope that thecomputermodellingofrisingwatersduetoglobalwarmingisoverstated.New geographical realities such as climate change present new opportunities and

challenges. Global warming may well result in the mass movement of people. If theMaldives,andmanyother islands, reallyaredestined tobe lost to thewaves, the impactwillnot justbeonthose leavingbefore it is too latebutalsouponthecountries towhichtheyflee.IfthefloodingofBangladeshbecomesworse,thefutureofthecountryandits160millionpeopleisdire;ifthewaterlevelsrisemuchhigher,thisimpoverishedcountrymaygounder.Andif thedesertificationof the lands justbelowtheSahelcontinues, thenwarssuchastheoneinDarfur,Sudan(partiallycausedbythedesertencroachingonnomadsinthe north,which in turn pushed them southwards towards the Fur people),will intensifyandspread.Waterwarsareanotherpotentialproblem.Evenifstabledemocraciesweretoemergein

theMiddle East in the coming decades, if the waters of theMurat River, which rises inTurkeybeforefeedingtheEuphrates,weretodiminishconsiderably,thenthedamsTurkeywouldhavetobuildtoprotectitsownsourceoflifecouldquiteeasilybethecauseofwarwithSyriaandIraqdownstream.Lookingfurtherahead,aswecontinuetobreakoutoftheprisonofourgeographyinto

theuniverse,thepoliticalstruggleswillpersistinspace,atleastfortheforeseeablefuture.A human being first burst through the top layer of the stratosphere in 1961 when

twenty-seven-year-oldSovietcosmonautYuriGagarinmadeitintospaceaboardVostok1.ItisasadreflectiononhumanitythatthenameofafellowRussiancalledKalashnikovisfarbetterknown.Gagarin, Buzz Aldrin and many others are the descendants of Marco Polo and

ChristopherColumbus,pioneerswhopushedtheboundariesandwhochangedtheworldinways theycouldnothave imagined in theirown lifetimes.Whether forbetterorworse isnot thepoint; theydiscoverednewopportunitiesandnewspaces inwhichpeopleswouldcompete tomake themost ofwhat naturehadput there. Itwill take generations, but inspace, too, we will plant our flags, ‘conquer’ territory, claim ground and overcome thebarrierstheuniverseputsinourway.There are now about 1,100 functioning satellites in space, and at least 2,000 non-

functioningones.TheRussiansandAmericans launchedapproximately2,400of the total,about100havecomefromJapanandasimilarnumberfromChina,followedbyahostof

othercountrieswithfarfewer.Belowthemarethespacestations,whereforthefirsttimepeopleliveandworksemi-permanentlyoutsidetheconfinesofearth’sgravity.Furtheron,atleastfiveAmericanflagsarethoughttobestillstandingonthesurfaceofthemoon,andfurther still, much further, our machines have made it out past Mars and Jupiter, someheadingwaybeyondwhatwecanseeandaretryingtounderstand.It is tempting to thinkof our endeavours in space as linkinghumanity to a collective

and co-operative future. But first therewill continue to be competition for supremacy inouterspace.ThesatellitesarenotjusttheretobeambackourTVpictures,ortopredicttheweather: theyalsospyonothercountries, toseewhoismovingwhereandwithwhat. Inaddition, America and China are engaged in developing laser technology, which can beusedasweapons,andbothseektoensurethattheyhaveamissilesystemthatcanoperatein space and nullify the competition’s version. Many of the technologically advancednationsarenowmakingpreparationsincasetheyneedtofightinspace.Whenwearereachingforthestars,thechallengesaheadaresuchthatwewillperhaps

havetocometogether tomeet them:to travel theuniversenotasRussians,AmericansorChinesebutasrepresentativesofhumanity.Butsofar,althoughwehavebrokenfreefromtheshacklesofgravity,wearestillimprisonedinourownminds,confinedbyoursuspicionofthe‘other’,andthusourprimalcompetitionforresources.Thereisalongwaytogo.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Manythankstoallthosewhofreelygaveoftheirtime,adviceandencouragement.IwouldliketothankmywifeJoannaforherpatienceandnaturalspellcheckabilities,

PippaCraneandJennieCondellatElliottandThompsonforgivingshapeanddirectiontomygeographicwanderings,andOllieDewisforherencouragementandideas.I am grateful to the following for casting their experienced eyes over sections of the

book and would like to reiterate that any errors contained therein are my doing andresponsibility: JamesRichards (formerofficialChinese interpreter to theUKgovernment,ChairmanofChinaAssociation),ProfessorJamesD.Boys(VisitingSeniorResearchFellow,KingsCollegeLondon),DavidSlinn(formerUKAmbassadortoNorthKorea),JoelRichardsMA(SouthAmerican specialist),KelvinO’Shea (SkyNews),TimMiller (SkyNews), JaksaScekic(ReutersBelgrade)andAleksanderVasca(ReutersBelgrade).Also,thankstothoseservingmembersofgovernmentsandthecivilservicewhokindly

gavemetheirexpertise,butpreferredittobeusedwithoutattribution.

INDEX

AAbeofJapan,PrimeMinister50Abkhazia93Adams,Henry59Adams,JohnQuincy60AddisAbaba108AegeanSea82–3Afghanistanxii–xiii,11,37,41,72,90,144,159,162,165–6,168,169–71,172Africaxiv,25,50,72agriculture100,115Angola100,105,106,111–12,113–14,116Arabinfluence99,102Chinaand50,106,108,111,112–16climateandterrain98,99–100,102,115diseases100,115earlyempires101energyresources107,108–10,111,112–13,117Europeaninfluence102–3extentsandborders99–100,103,111internalconflicts103–4,106–12,117isolation98,101militaryforces108,109,110,111,115,116mineralresources105–6,107,112,114,115,116–17North24,72,81rivers100–1,102,107,117sizeandpopulation98–9,105,108,109,111,115,118slavery102South100,111,115–17tradinglinks101–2,106,110,114,115,117seealsoindividualcountriesbynameAfricanNationalCongress(ANC)116AksaiChin38al-Bashir,Omar114AlQaedaxii,42,132–3,135,166–7,168,170,172al-Qaradawi,Yusuf150Alaska62–3,224Alawites125,131–2,144Albania13,86Algeria123AlpsMountains79AmazonRiver202,213AmericanRevolutionaryWar(1775–83)57Amundsen,Roald226AndesMountains202Angola100,105,106,111–12,113–14,116Antarctica219AppalachianMountains56–7Arab-IsraeliWar130

ArabianDesert123ArabianPeninsula129ArabianSea157,164Argentina200,201,203,204,211,215–19Armenia12,22Armitage,Richard168–9Arcticxiii,xiv,25,92ArcticCouncil230,235claimstoSovereignty231–6expeditions225–7extentofregion224–5globalwarming224–5,227–8icebreakers233–4naturalresources224,229–30,235NorthernSeaRoute229NorthwestPassage225–6,228–9Russiaandthe224,229,230,231–4tradinglinks229UnitedNationsConventionontheLawoftheSea230,234ArunachalPradesh38,173–4Asia5–6,9–10seealsoindividualcountriesbynameAssad,Bashar131,132Assad,Hafez131–2Assam174AtlanticOcean14,57,65,79,81,88,92,98,101,147,201Austro-HungarianEmpire80Australia65,68Austria23Azerbaijan12

BBahrain67,71Balboa,VascoNúñezde209Balkansxi–xii,86BalticSea15,20,93BalticStates8,18,19–20,83Baluchistan162–3Bangladesh49,157,158,159,238–9BayofBengal49,157Belarus12Belgium92,105Belize204BerlinWall6BessarabiaseeMoldovaBhutan157,174Bhutto,Benazir168Bildnewspaper94binLaden,Osama170Bjarnason,Björn233BlackSea14,15,20,147BokoHaram110–11Bolívar,Simón203Bolivia203–4BosporusStrait14,15,147BrahmaputraRiver158

Brazil73,201,202,203,211,212–16,217BRICS216Britain83,85,88,91–2,109Afghanistanand169–70Belizeand204FalklandIslands216,218–19imperialpowers34,35,92,157–9Indiaand157–9Israel/Palestineand137MiddleEastand123–4,128–9,135,169militaryforces64,88,92USAand58,64,65,218Brunei48Bulgaria13,23,24,79,86Burma34,37,49–50,67,157,174,175,193Burundi106,107,116,117

CCaliforniaGoldRush62Cameroon110Canada224,230,231–2,234,235CanadianShield57CapeofGoodHope98–9CaribbeanSea72,201Catalonia79CatherinetheGreat8,17Caucasus11,135,147CentralAfricanRepublic100,106CharlesXIIofSweden,King6Chechnya,Caucasus11Chile201,202,203–4,212Chinax,xiii–xiv,64,234Africaand50,106,108,111,112–16agriculture31–2,43AirDefenceIdentificationZone46,47,69–70archipelagos44–6,48Arcticand230Burmaand49–50,67CommunistParty34,35,38,39,42–3earlyhistory31–3energyresources46,48,111,162,209extentsandborders31,32–3,34,35–8,40,50,172HanChinese31,32,33,36,38,39–40,41humanrightsperspective42–3Indiaand37–8,41,163,172–6,238industrialisation31,43invasionsof33,34Japanand34,35,45–6,189,191,194,195–6Koreaand180–1,185,188,192,195LatinAmericaand209–11,212,216MiddleEastand151militaryforces114,115,163MongolEmpireand33Navy30–1,37,43–4,48,71,175–6NorthChinaPlain‘theheartland’31–2Pakistanand162,176

ports49,50Russiaand10,25,34,35,36Siberiaand10sizeandpopulation31,32,34,36,50–1,196spaceprogramme240Taiwanand45,46–7,70Tibetandxv,32,35,37,38–40,42,163,173,174tradinglinks33–4,36,37,42,47,48,106,114,175,181,211,212,216USAand30,44,46,47,48–9,66,67–70,180,185,195Vietnamand37,48Xinjiang34,39,40–2,162Churchill,Winston4–5Clinton,Hillary68CollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization(CSTO)12Colombia202,207,212colonialismxiv,103,105,116,132,157–8CommunismChina34,35,38,39,42–3Korea183–4seealsoRussia/SovietUnion(USSR)concrete65,67Congo99–100seealsoDemocraticRepublicofCongoCongoRiver101Crimea14,15,16–17,18,24,90,93CrimeanWar6,21Croatia79,86Cyrenaica104Cuba63,69,111,180,238CubanMissileCrisis63,69Cyprus146–7CzechRepublic13,23,24

DDagestan,Caucasus11DalaiLama38,163,173DanubeRiver79–80DemocraticRepublicofCongo(DRC)104–6,112,114,117DengXiaoping35Denmark15,86,87,230,232,234,235DestroyersforBasesAgreement64Diamond,Jared98,100DnieperRiver7Dokdo/TakeshimaIslands190DominicanRepublic63drugtrafficking206–8Durand,Mortimer166

EEastAfricanCommunity(EAC)116EastChinaSea37,46,65,189,195EastCoastPlain56–7EastTurkestanseeXinjiangEcuador202,204,211,215Egypt107–9,123,137,139,143,146–7,150

ElburzMountains142Enlai,Zhou42–3Erdogan,RecepTayyib146,148Eritrea106,107Estonia8,13,19–20,23Ethiopia107,108–9EurasianUnion12Europexiv,237Africaand102Chinaand33Russiaand6,8,9–10,15–16,23,24–5Turkeyand145–6USAand56,61,64,66,67seealsoEuropeanUnion;WesternEurope;individualcountriesbynameEuropeanUnion(EU)7,13,17,22,24,66,82,85,86,87,88–9,91,92–3,145Eurozone89–90

FFalklandIslands216,218–19Fezzan104Finland23,87,224,230,234FirstWorldWar64,124,128Florida57,60,238FloridaStraits63France79,81,85,92,111Germanyand87–9,93MiddleEastand123–4,129–30,131USAand58–9,65Franco,Francisco82Franco-PrussianWar87Franklin,John225–6FreeTibetmovement38

GGagarin,Yuri239GakkelRidge231GangesRiver158Gaza139Georges-Picot,François124Georgia13,18,19,22,66,93Georgia(USA)57Georgia-RussianWar(2008)22,93Germany79,81,83–4,85,234Franceand87–9,93modernmilitary90–1Russiaand5,6,14,23,88,90–1,93GibraltarStraits14GIUKgap15,92,233globalwarming224,238GobiDesert31,36Gorbachev,Mikhail6GrandCanal,China33GrandRenaissanceDam108–9GreatWallofChina33GreatZimbabwe101

Greece23,82–4,89,146–7Greenland25,224,235Guam63,65Guatemala204Gujarat158GulfofMexico57,59,63,201,206,238GulfStream78Guyana204Gwadar162,176

HHanbal,Ahmadibn125HanbaliIslam125HansIsland235Hashemites129,136Hawaii63HelmandProvince169Herodotus107Hezbollah130–1,132,141,144Himalayasx,31,37,157,172,238HinduKush157Hindus158,159Hitler,Adolf5HolyRomanEmpire87HongKong35,47Honshu190HuJinatao39Hudson,Henry225Hungaryxi,13,23,79Hussein,Saddam126–7,144Hutupeople106

IIberianPeninsula79Iceland65,224,230,233Imjin-gangRiver185IndiaxAfghanistanand165–6Chinaand37–8,41,163,172–6,238climateandrivers158culturaldiversity158economicgrowth174–5energyresources174,175extentsandborders157,165,172internalconflict174Kashmir162,163,164–5militaryforces163–4,165,175–6Pakistanandxiv,156–7,158–9,162,163–5partitionof158–9USAand175India-ChinaWar163IndianDefenceReview156IndianOcean14,43–4,48,49,98,101,162Indo-China34,193Indonesia48,68,70

IndusRiver158,164InnerMongolia34,35,36,40Interahamwe106Iran71,123,132,141–4,146,151Iran-IraqWar142Iraqxv,72,123,125–8,133,134,142,144,149,150,151,239Iraqi-Syrianborder122Islammilitants/jihadists71,72,108,110–11,132–6NorthAfrica99Xinjiang40–1,42seealsoIndia;IslamicState;MiddleEast;Pakistan;Shiatribes;SunnitribesIslamicState132–3,135Israel71–2,108,123,136–41,143–4,146–7Italy23,65,82–3IvantheGreat7IvantheTerrible7–8

JJapanxiv,11,34,45–6,49–50,64,68,70,239Arcticand230Chinaand34,35,45–6,189,190,191,192,194,195–6energyresources192–3extentsandpopulation190,191,195,196Indiaand175Koreaand180,183–4,186,187–8,189,190,192,196militaryforces192,193–5Mongolinvasion191Russiaand190–1,192,195SecondWorldWar193,195spaceprogramme239USAand34,64,68,193–4,196Jefferson,Thomas59Jerusalem138–9JewsseeIsraelJinnah160Jordan123,128–9,136,137,140

KKagan,Robert94Kaliningrad93Kaplan,Robert49,89KarakoramRange37,157Kashmir162,163,164–5Kazakhstan12,40,41,66Kazama,Shinji226–7Kemal,Mustafa145–6Kenya107,112–13,116Khartoum,Sudan108Khrushchev,Nikita15Kiev,Ukraine7,13,14KimJong-il182–3Kissinger,Henry86Klitschko,Vitaly14Kohl,Helmut94

Koreaxiv,180,182,183–4Chinaand180–1,185,188,189Japanand180,183–4,186,187–8,189,190,192,196KoreanWar65,184–5,188NorthKorea68,180–3,184–5,186–9,196nuclearweapons186,188Russiaand184,188,189SouthKorea68,180,184–7,188,189–90,195,196USAand180,181,184–5,186,188,190,196KoreanWar(1950–3)65,184–5,188Kosovoxi,86,90KublaiKhan33KunlunRange39Kurds/Kurdistan126–8,134KurilIslands195Kuwait123Kyrgyzstan12,40,41

LLaos37LatinAmericaxiv,25agriculture213–14Chinaand209–11,212,216climateandterrain201,202,205,206colonialism200–1,203drugtrafficking206–8energyresources202,204,209,217–18extentsandborders201–2.205internalconflicts203–4,215–16sizeandpopulation200,201,203,205,206tradinglinks201,202,209,211,212,214,216UNASUR215USAand60–2,72,211–12,216(seealsoMexico)seealsoindividualcountriesbynameLatvia8,13,19,23Lebanon129–31,132,140–1,144LeopoldofBelgium,King105Lhasa,Tibet39,40Liberia112Libya90,103–4,123,149,150Lithuania8,13,19,23,24LittleDiomedeIsland9LouisianaPurchase(1803)59Luanda114

MMacau35MagnaCarta(1215)91Malaysia48,68,70Maldives238MaliEmpire101Manchuria34,36,40,183,192Mao,Chairman35Margvelashvili,Giorgi22MarshallPlan65

Massachusetts57Meckel,Klemens192MediterraneanSea14,65,81,83,99,102,147MekongRiver38Mercatormaps98,99Merkel,Angela84MesetaCentral82MexicanWar(1846–8)61–2Mexico60–2,205–7,212,238MiddleEastxiv,24,65,71,102bordersandextents122–3,141–2divisionofland123–4,125–6energyresources123,134–5,141–2,143–4internalconflicts124–9,130–41,142,150Israeli/Palestineconflict136–40jihadists132–6nuclearweapons143–4population127,129,141,144prejudices149–50realityofthe‘ArabSpring’148–9‘Sykes-Picot’123–4seealsoindividualcountriesbynameMingdynasty,Chinese33Minneapolis59MischiefIslands48MississippiBasin/River57,58,59Moldova(Bessarabia)13,19,20–2MongolEmpire7,33,142,183,191Mongolia10,31,32,35,36,41MonroeDoctrine61,211–12MontreuxConvention(1936)14Morales,Evo204Mozambique101Mubarak,Hosni150MurmanskBrigades232Musharraf,Pervez167–8MuslimBrotherhood131–2,146,150MuslimsseeIndia;Islam;MiddleEast;Pakistan;Shiatribe;Sunnitribe

NNagaland174Namibia100,106NapoleonBonaparte5,60NationalGeographic98NATO(NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization)xi–xii,6–7,13,15,17,18–19,20,22,65,67,85–7,88,91,92–3,147,167,168,170,

171,231,233Nepal157,173Netherlands92NewOrleans58–9,63NewZealand65NicaraguaGrandCanal209–11NigerRiver101Nigeria109–10,111NileRiver101,107Nixon,Richard42–3,207NorthChinaPlain31

NorthEuropeanPlainix,5,6,13,20,65,81,85,88,237NorthKoreaseeunderKoreaNorthPole225seealsoArcticNorthSea15,81,88,92NorthwestPassage225–6Norway15,65,224,230,231,234NubianDesert108

OObama,Barrack49–50,66,175Oberdorfer,Don184OhioRiver58Okinawa46,65,70,193,195,196Oman123Ortega,Daniel210OttomanEmpirexi,17,80,123–4,126Özal,Turgut146

PPacificOcean44–6,48,57,60,65,201Pakistan37,40,41,49,143Afghanistanand165–6,169,170Baluchistan162–3Chinaand162,176culturaldiversity158,160EastandWestdivision159energyresources162extentsandborders157,159,165,166Indiaandxiv,156–7,158–9,162,163–5internalconflict160–2,163,171Kashmirand162,163,164–5militaryforces156,157,160,163–4,165,168,171partitionfromIndia159–60sizeandpopulation156,160Taliban166–7,168,169,170,171–2USAand167–9,170,171–2seealsoBangladeshPalestine123,136–40Palin,Sarah9Panama209PanamaCanal63,72,209,210Papoulias,Karolos83–4Paraguay217Parry,Edward225Pashtuns161–2,166,171,172PearlHarbor193PersianEmpire144Peru200,201,202,204,212Peshawar166PetertheGreat8,11Philippines48,63,175,193Poland5,13,18,20,23,24,84–6Portugal35,79,81,111,116,203Powell,Colin167–8

ProvisionsofOxford(1258)91PuertoRico63Punjab158,161,165,174Putin,Vladimirix,5,13,14,15,16–17,19,24,66,86,232Pyongyang182,188PyreneesMountains79,82PytheasofMassilia225

QQindynasty,Chinese33

RRadioBeijing35Reid,John169RepublicofCongo106RhineRiver79RhôneRiver81RioGrande62RockyMountains57RomanEmpire79Romania13,15,79,86Roosevelt,Theodore69,211–12Rousseff,Dilma216Russia/SovietUnion(USSR)ix,xiii,237Afghanistanand11,162,166Angolancivilwar105,111,112Arcticand92,224,229,230,231–4,235Balkancountriesand86BalticStatesand8,18,19–20,93(seealsoindividualcountriesbyname)Chinaand10,25,34,35,36,41Empireestablished8energyresources17,23–5,147extentsandborders9,11Georgiaand22,93Germanyand5,6,14,23,88,90–1,93invasionsof5–6,7IvantheTerrible7–8Japanand190–1,195Koreaand184,188,189,192militaryforces5,11,12,13,22,25,34,93,232–3Moldovaand21–2NATOandEU6–7,13,15,17,18–19,20,22navalforces14–15,92,147,233Polandand5,13,20,23,84–5portsandtrade8,11–12,13,14,15sizeandpopulation4,9,25spaceprogrammes239–40Ukraineandix,8,13–18,93USAand9,14,15–16,18,25,62,65,66–7,69,83,234–5WarsawPact6,7WesternEuropeand84–7,93–4Russo-JapaneseWar(1904–5)184,192Rwanda106,107,116,117RyukyuIslands46,195

SSaakashvili,Mikheil22SabaRiver79SaharaDesert98,99,101,102Sahelregion,Africa99,102,110–11,239SalafiIslam125,135SanMartín,Joséde203satellites239–40SaudiArabia111,123,129,135,143,144,151Scandinavia86Schäuble,Wolfgang83SeaofJapan45–6,189SecondWorldWar34,64,84,94,137,193,195SeineRiver81SeminoleIndiannation60Serbiaxi–xii,23,79,86Sevastopol13,14,15Seward,William62Shangdynasty,Chinese31Shanghai33–4Shiatribes124–6,130,134–5,143,144,161SiachenGlacier163Siberia4,10,231SierraMadresMountains206SierraNevadaMountains57Sikhs158,159,174Sindhs161Singapore48,68,70,193Singh,DrAmarjit156Sino-JapaneseWar,First192Six-DayWar(1967)138SkagerrakStrait15,233slavery102Slovakia13,23,79Slovenia86SouthAfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC)116SouthAfricanNationalDefenceForce117SouthAmericaseeLatinAmerica;individualcountriesbynameSouthChinaSea37,44,45,48,49,175SouthKoreaseeunderKoreaSouthOssetia93SovietUnion(USSR)seeRussia/SovietUnion(USSR)spaceprogrammes239–40Spain60,63,79,80–1,82,203,219SpratlyIslands48SriLanka49Stalin,Joseph12,21StraitofHormuz143–4StraitofMalacca48,49,70,162,176Sudan107,108,114SuezCanal14,99,108SuezCrisis(1956)65Suidynasty,Chinese33Sunnitribes124,125–6,130,131–2,133–5,144,161SvalbardIslands231Sweden6,86–7,224,230,234

Sykes,Mark123–4Syriaxiii,xv,14,67,123,127–8,129,130,131–3,137,141,150,239

TTaiwan(RepublicofChina)45,46–7,48,70,192,195Tajikistan12,37,40,41Talibanxii,166–7,168–72Tamil158Tanzania100,102,105,107,113,116Texas61–2Thailand68,175Theroux,Paul39Tibetxv,32,35,37,38–40,42,163,173,174TibetanPlateau31,38TranscontinentalTreaty(1819)60Transnistria,Moldova21–2,93TreatyofTordesillas203Tripolitania104Tunisia100Turkey14,15,23,24,69,83,86,143,144–8,239Turkmenistan12,142Tutsipeople106

UUganda100,106,107,116,117Uighurpeople41–2Ukraineix,8,13,15–18,66,90,93UmayyadCaliphate158UnitedNations107,137,185,211ConventionontheLawoftheSea230,234HumanDevelopmentIndex10SecurityCouncil18,114,215UnitedStatesofAmericaxivAfricaand72,111AmericanRevolutionaryWar57Angolancivilwar105Arcticand224,230,233–4Britainand58,64,219Burmaand49–50CaliforniaGoldRush62Caribbeanand63Chinaand30,44,46,47,48–9,67–70,185,195Cubaand63,69,180,238DeclarationofIndependence(1776)58DestroyersforBasesAgreement64earlysettlersandexplorers57–9energyresources24,62,71,73,111,150–1,193,209extentsandborders56–63Frenchterritory58–9HomesteadAct62Indiaand175Iranand71Israeland71–2Japanand34,64,68,193–4,196Koreaand180,181,184–5,186,188,190,196

LatinAmericaand60–2,72,211–12,216(seealsounderMexico)Mexicoand60–2,205–8,238MiddleEastand127,142,144,150–1militaryforcesxii,xv,7,68–70,73(seealsoNATO;Navyandnavalbases)MonroeDoctrine61,211–12NativeAmericans60Navyandnavalbases30,44,46,63,64–5,67,68,70,71,193,196Pakistanand167–9,170,171–2PanamaCanal63,72Polandand85Russia/SovietUnionand9,14,15–16,18,25,62,65,66–7,69,83,85,234–5SecondWorldWar34,64,193sizeandpopulation57,61,73spaceprogramme239–40Spanishterritory60,63Taiwanand46,47,70tradelinks59,63Vietnamand37,65–6WarofIndependence58WaronTerror/Afghanistan166–8,169,170,171–2seealsoNATO;individualstatesbynameUralMountains4,5,8,9,20Uruguay212,217USSKittyHawk30USSRseeRussia/SovietUnionUzbekistan12

VVacaMuerta‘DeadCow’217,219Venezuela25,202,204,209,211,212Vietnam37,48,66,68,175vonBismarck,Otto73,86

WWangJing210WarsawPact6,7Washington,George64WestBank140WesternEuropeagriculture78,81,82climate78–9,81economiccrash83–4,89Eurocurrency89–90industrialisation79,80militaryforces83,88,90,92,94multi-culturalnatureof79naturalborders79–80north/southdivide80–4population78Russiaand84–7,93–4tradinglinks78,79,80–1,82–3,89,91seealsoEuropeanUnion(EU);individualcountriesbyname

XXinjiang34,39,40–2,162

YYangtzeRiver31,33,38Yanukovych,Viktor13,90YellowRiver31,33,38YellowSea37Yemen123,135,150Yuandynasty,Mongol33Yugoslavia(UnionofSouthernSlavs)86

ZZagrosMountains141ZambeziRiver100–1Zambia106,112ZhengHe43–4Zhirinovsky,Vladimir11

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