Pricing Trends and Storage Technologies - GTG India · 2019-01-04 · Annual storage installations expected to grow 300 to 500% over 5 years, market data still highly imperfect Sources:

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Pricing Trends and Storage Technologies

Battery Energy Storage Workshop

New Delhi, November 30th, 2018

[email protected]

+918376913417

mailto:[email protected]

Price Discussion

3 © Fluence Energy LLC. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary.

10MW/1Hr Battery Storage System, Delhi

Tata Power - DDL Rohini Substation, Client: AES, Mitsubishi, Tata Power; Supplier: Fluence

BATTERY CABINET

BATTERY MODULES

What is energy storage?Modular, scalable arrays of proven technologies integrated at utility and industrial scale.

BATTERY PACKS

BATTERY CELLS

Power Control Electronics Low voltage and

medium voltage

components

HVAC

Fire detection and

extinguishing system

Battery cabinets and

battery management system

Intelligence:

Array Controls &

Application Software

Connection:

Electrical & Other

Balance of Plant

© Fluence Energy LLC. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary.

What makes up the system?

© Fluence Energy LLC. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary. 5

Power

Electronics

(Inverters,

PCS, BMS)

Shipping and

Warehousing

(Containers,

Racks HVAC,

Fire Fighting)

Chemistry

(Batteries)

Civil and

Electrical

(Balance of

Plant)

Applied

Electronics

(Configuration

and telemetry)

Multiple disciplines come together to create a Battery Energy Storage Solution

What constitutes the system cost?


Inverters +

PCS

Containers +

Racks + HVAC

+ Fire Fighting

Batteries +

BMSBalance of

Plant Commissioning

and Installation

Equipment and Services

Upto 65% Remaining Cost

What else constitutes the system cost in India?


Import Duty

(10%)

Social Cess

on imported

items

(1%)

GST

(18%)

Cess, Tax and Duties

Upto 31% of System cost

Key design parameters impacting system cost


• Application

• Power

• Duration

• EPC Turnkey/Core Only

• Power Factor

• Use Case/Number of Cycles per day

• Firm Capacity Period

• Warranty Period

• Commercial Operations Date (COD)

• Enclosure Type

• Ambient Temperature

US Utility Scale BESS Install Cost Outlook 2016:40 – IHS Markit

Source: IHS Markit

$/KW


Source: GTM Research

US Utility Scale BESS Install Cost Outlook 2018:20 – GTM Research


US Utility Scale BESS install cost based on customer feedback, analyst report and Fluence analysis

Scaling by duration• Scaled to 1, 2, 4 hours

$363:$495$605:$825

$1096:$1495

USD/kW

1 hour 2 hour 4 hour

Overview of approach

• Scales based on battery cost

at given COD

Reference datapoint: Winning bid, Large Scale, US based project, 2020 Commissioning


Reference datapoint: 2 India based project that have proceeded to award stage, 2019 or 2020 Commissioning

India Project 1: 1MW/4 hrs

- USD/kW: USD 1300 – USD 1500

India Project 2: 16MW/0.5hr

- USD/kW: USD360 – USD420

India BESS install cost based on customer feedback and Fluence analysis


Lithium-Ion Battery Rate of Price Decline to Slowdown

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Source: GTM Report February 2018

*

*possibly dampened by raw material price development

Source: gtmresearchSource: gtmresearch

Proprietary and confidential

Rapid rise in EV demand driving battery production scale and cost declines

© Fluence Energy LLC. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary14

Expected capacity additions may outpace demand, but expect this to adjust dynamically

Source: BNEF 2018 Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook

BNEF 2018 Long-Term Energy Storage Outlook

4979

127

203

1313

14

14

60

66

72

80

10

16

18

23

131

406

175

627

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2018 2019 2020 2021

Lith

ium

Bat

tery

Cap

acit

y (G

Wh

)

An

nu

al L

ith

ium

Bat

tery

De

man

d (

GW

h)

Passenger EVs E-buses Consumer Electronics Stationary Storage Lithium Battery Capacity May 2018 Lithium Battery Capacity Nov 2018

132

GWh

173

GWh

231

GWh

321

GWh

Lithium Ion Battery Manufacturing Capacities Are Growing Rapidly But Supply Constraints Will Continue Through 2019

15

Dynavolt Renewable Power Technology…

Discovery

NorthVolt AB

Tianjin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock Co Ltd

Samsung SDI

Energy Absolute PCL

BYD Co Ltd

LG Chem Ltd

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd

Tesla Inc, Panasonic Corp

Fully commissioned

Under construction

Announced

105

104

70

60

50

31

27

24

20

16

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Proprietary and Confidential

Annual storage installations expected to grow 300 to 500% over 5 years, market data still highly imperfect

Sources: BNEF 2017 and 2018 Global Energy Storage Forecast; IHS H2 2017 and

H1 2018 Grid Connected Energy Storage Market Tracker WoodMackenzie 2018

External Market Forecast – Annual Installations Grid & C&I (Not Residential)

3673

6474

2052

3473

6126

15131

2371

8564

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

MW

BNEF 2017

BNEF 2018

> 4x

WM 2018

IHS H12018

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Raw Material Price Development Has Been favorable to or below last years levels. Another Shortage Or Price Hike Could Be Caused by the Growing Demand With the Production Expansion

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Proprietary and Confidential


Brief Technology Discussion

Battery Games are over. Li-Ion won!

Battery Technology Based Distribution, Forecast up to 2025

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Deployment in MW by technology (IHS)

Flow Lead-acid Li-ion Non-Battery Technologies Other Batteries

Source: IHS Markit – H1 2018


Flag 1 - Energy storage – attractive pumped hydro alternative

106 Hectares

4,9 Hectares

Same Power

less impact

* Footprint based on an existing pumped hydro station (1164MW/6hour)© Fluence Energy LLC. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary.

Flag 2 - Peaking capacity today: The majority of US peakers have low capacity utilization, and average run times of less than 8 hours per start

© Fluence Energy LLC. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary 21Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

https://www.woodmac.com/our-expertise/capabilities/power-and-renewables/

Flag 3 - Multiple applications and technology integration in BESS

© Fluence Energy LLC. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary

Flag 4 - Seek no single supplier lock-in.

SupplierA

SupplierB

NewTech

© Fluence Energy LLC. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary

24 © Fluence Energy LLC. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary

1,978 MW publicly Announced/Contracted projects equal or above 1 MW (126 projects)

Source: DOE, Clean Horizon and other sources [Likely understated as

projects may not be made public];

17%

16%

10%

1,978 MW(126 projects)

Fluence was the market leader over previous 12-month period (Oct.‘17 – Sep.‘18)

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Pricing Trends and Storage Technologies - GTG India · 2019-01-04 · Annual storage installations expected to grow 300 to 500% over 5 years, market data still highly imperfect Sources: