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CHAPTER TWENTY-TWO
INTRODUCTION
Long before the end of the last Century,declining environmental quality and increasing publicconcern over the environment, both locally andglobally, had begun to create a demand for thestrengthening of environmental protection withinAsia and the Pacific. Policy-makers therefore beganthe decade of the 1990s with a mandate to improvethe state of the environment in region. Whether ornot they have succeeded is perhaps a subjectivejudgement, biased to some extent by an individual’ssocial and economic welfare-improvements in somedimensions of environmental quality have been, andare continuing to be achieved, especially among themore developed economies of the Northeast Asian(and parts of South Pacific) subregion. However,what is beyond doubt is that the 1990s have seenprogress in the establishment of the institutions andpolicy tools needed to address the region’s urgentenvironmental concerns from hereon.
Two core findings have shaped the approachtaken by policy makers to the environment in Asiaand the Pacific during the last decade. Firstly, agrowing body of information became availabledocumenting the generally poor state of theenvironment. The UN ESCAP State of theEnvironment Reports, of which this is the third, wereinstrumental in assembling data that confirmed theeveryday experience of many citizens of the region:from air to water pollution, from land degradationto desertification, the rapidly industrializing andurbanizing countries of the region experienced poorand, in many cases, declining environmental quality(United Nations 1990 and 1995). A number of topicalreports by the ADB (1997), the World Bank (1994 and1997) and other organizations also predicted thatcontinuation of these trends would lead to a furtherdecline in many dimensions of environmental qualityduring the 1990s in many parts of the region (Brandonand Ramankutty 1993; Hettige et al 1997; O’Connor1994). Secondly, in general, the poor state of theenvironment has, in general, been attributed to thepolicy failures and institutional weakness inenvironmental management. Where environmentalprotection systems have been strengthened, this hasgenerally led to progress in reducing pollution, landdegradation and other environmentally damagingprocesses, and, in turn, measurable improvements inenvironmental quality. Moreover, contrary to thefears of some policy-makers, there is little evidencethat stronger environmental regulation hasundermined the competitiveness of the Asian andPacific Region economies in world markets (ADB1997). Progress in policy reform and institutionalcapacity building, however, has been highly uneven;
faster and more effective in some places than inothers.
This Chapter concludes the report, andsummarizes the discussion therein concerning theprevailing conditions and trends in the physicalenvironment across the region, their impacts on thehealth and well-being of the region’s population, andthe management and policy responses which havebeen adopted to address them. It then goes on tolook at projected trends and future scenarios for theregion’s environment, and concludes with adiscussion of future prospects.
PREVAILING CONDITIONSAND TRENDS
A snapshot of prevailing and likely trends forenvironmental and socio-economic conditions in Asiaand the Pacific is provided in Figure 22.1, whichshows an improvement in economic and some qualityof life indicators, but portrays a picture of the overalldegradation of the environment. These trends arediscussed further below.
A. Socio-Economic TrendsAsia and the Pacific is the most populous
region in the world, with a population that has morethan doubled in the latter half of the last Century,from 1.7 billion in 1960 to 3.7 billion in 2000, and isstill rising. The rate of growth of population,however, fell slightly in the last decade, from 1.6 percent in the period 1990-95, to 1.4 per cent in the period1995-2000. Much of this population increase has takenplace in urban areas; the urban population of theregion has doubled in the last 20 years alone. Thenumber of megacities (with populations greater thanone million) has also increased significantly, from3 in 1980 to 12 in 2000, which alone presentlyaccommodate about 12 per cent of the region’s urbanpopulation.
1. Economic GrowthEconomic growth, measured in terms of gross
domestic product (GDP), has contributed toimproving social conditions across much of theregion. Between 1965 and 1990, GDP in Asia and thePacific as a whole grew by an annual averageof 3.8 per cent per capita (ADB 1997). Over the1990-1997 period, GDP soared at an annual rate of7.9 per cent in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia,and 5.7 per cent in South Asia (World Bank 2000).Despite the financial crisis that hit many countries ofthe region in 1997-98, economic growth managed torevive in 1999; the GDP of countries in developingparts of the region posted a robust growth rate of6.2 per cent in 1999, much higher than the 2.6 per
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Figure 22.1 Environment and Development Trends in Asia and the Pacific 1995-2005
South Asia North-East Asia South-East Asia Pacific Central Asia
1995-2000 2000-2005 1995-2000 2000-2005 1995-2000 2000-2005 1995-2000 2000-2005 1995-2000 2000-2005
Socio-economic trends
GDP growth � � � �
Population growth rate � � � � � � � �
Incidence of poverty � � � � � �
Urban growth
Slums and squatters � � � � � �
Life expectancy � � � � � �
Infant mortality � � � �
Traditional diseases � � � � � � � � �
Modern diseases � � � � � �
Child under nourishment � � � �
Nutrition � � � � � � � � � �
Natural disaster losses � � � �
Environmental trends
Resources
Arable land per capita � � � � � � � � � �
Land degradation � �
Desertification � �
Deforestation � �
Tree plantation � � � � �
Loss of habitat and species
Water consumption � �
Marine resources loss
Commercial use of energy
Food security � � � � � � �
Resource use by industry
Environmental degradation � � � �
by tourism
Pollution
Freshwater pollution
Coastal pollution
Air pollution � � � �
Greenhouse gases � �
Solid waste generation
Agro-chemical use
Pollution by energy generation
Vehicular pollution
Industrial pollution
Environmental policies/actions
Public authorities action �
Business sector’s response �
Env. monitoring & research �
Env. education & awareness
Activities of major groups � �
Int’l Conventions (participation)
Subregional cooperation � �
Note: Increase � Slight increase Decrease � Slight decrease No change
Red color shows deteriorating trend
Green color shows improving trend
GDP and urban growth have not been indicated by red or green color because their impact could be good or bad
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CHAPTER TWENTY-TWO
cent rate recorded in 1998. This rate is expectedto remain virtually unchanged through 2000(ADB 2000).
2. Income and Quality of Life TrendsIn 1975, over half of the population of Asia
and the Pacific was classed as poor, based on theWorld Bank “dollar a day” threshold for poverty.Moreover, using a more generous poverty thresholdof 2 dollars a day, almost 2 billion people, or themajority of the region’s population could be classedas poor. Today, using the “dollar a day” criteria,around a quarter of the population is classed as poor.However, due to the rapid population growth, theabsolute number of poor has remained extremelyhigh, at 900 million in 1998 (which is about twice asmany people as in the rest of the developing worldcombined). For example, in South Asia, where theoverwhelming majority of the poor are found to live(some 522 million), numbers have increased by morethan 30 million since 1980, although the ratio of poorto total population has declined considerably overthis period (World Bank 1999). Likewise, People’sRepublic of China in 1998 still had 213 million poor(World Bank 1998), some 17 per cent of its population,and it has also been estimated that 10 million peoplemay have been added to the ranks of the poorbetween 1996 and 1998 due to the financial andeconomic crisis that hit the countries in Northeastand Southeast Asia.
Standards of health and nutrition haveimproved substantially over the past few decades.Average life expectancy across the region rose from58 years in 1975, to 67 years at end of the Century.In particular, these rates of increase were exceededin the subregions of Northeast, Southeast and SouthAsia. The biggest influence on raising life expectancyhas been reduction in infant mortality. The lowestinfant mortality rate, at around 6 per thousand livebirths in Central Asia, while the highest is in SouthAsia, at 77 per thousand live births; these arecompared to a worldwide developing countryaverage of 58 per thousand live births (ADB 2000).These variations to a large extent reflect differencesin factors such as nutritional intake, access tohealth-care, safe water and sanitation. The incidenceof child malnutrition in Northeast and Southeast Asiais almost the lowest in the developing world (onlyLatin America is lower). By contrast, incidence is thehighest in South Asia, where in 1990, six out of tenchildren had stunted growth from malnutrition,compared with four out of ten in Sub-Saharan Africa.In addition, one in three babies in South Asia wasborn underweight in the same year, compared to1 in 6 in Sub-Saharan Africa (ADB 1997).
B. Resource Trends
1. Land, Forest and BiodiversityThe assessment of the condition of natural
resources in Asia and the Pacific shows an overalldeteriorating trend (Figure 22.1). Land scarcity, alongwith its degradation, is putting serious stress on foodproduction and security in the region. The arableland per capita of agricultural population has alreadydeclined by about 20 per cent since 1970. Currently,per capita arable land availability is 0.18 hectare,which is much below the world average of 0.24 ha(UNEP 1999). Land degradation is also contributingto a rising number of landless, who are moving toenvironmentally fragile areas such as steep slopesand forests, further contributing to land degradation.Of the world’s 1 900 million hectares of land affectedby soil degradation since 1945, the largest portion ofthis area (over 850 million hectares) was in Asia andthe Pacific. Arid and semi-arid areas of the regionare particularly vulnerable; it is estimated that1.3 billion (over a third of the region’s population)live in areas prone to drought and desertification.
Agricultural intensification, including theexpansion of irrigation and the increased applicationof agrochemicals, has allowed a substantial expansionin crop yields, and also permitted the cultivation ofvast expanses of arid lands. Irrigated areas aloneincreased by about 6 per cent between 1995 and 1998.However, the chances of a their further expansion atsuch a rate are low, due to increasing pressures onfinite (and in some cases dwindling) water resources.Fertilizer and pesticide consumption in developingcountries of the region has also grown steadily overthe years (Figure 22.2). The region’s share in world’stotal fertilizer consumption swelled from 32 per centin 1988, to 50 per cent in 1998. Pesticide use increasedfrom an annual average rate of 3 per cent in 1983/93,to 4.4 per cent in 1993/98. However, the growth inproduction attributable to these factors is unlikely tobe sustainable, since poor irrigation practices andover-application of agro-chemicals have taken theirtoll on both land and water resources, including anincrease in pollution, Stalinization and desertification.
Forests and biodiversity are also under extremepressure. The region has the highest rate ofdeforestation, at 1.2 per cent per annum (FAO 1998),the highest rate of commercial logging and biggestvolume of fuelwood removal in the world. Already,over half of the region’s forest base has disappearedand another three quarters of a million hectares offorests are being lost annually. Habitat modification,fragmentation and loss, along with over-exploitationof resources and introduction of exotic species, haveplaced the rich biodiversity of the region underserious threat. About two thirds of the region’s
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wildlife habitats have already been destroyed,thousands of plant and animal species are threatenedand genetic diversity is declining at a pace (Tuxill1999). However, a positive trend is the growing rateof forest plantation, which is one of the highest inthe world.
2. Aquatic ResourcesMassive withdrawals from rivers, lakes and
underground reservoirs have contributed to agrowing scarcity of freshwater in parts of the region.Taking the standard benchmarks of 1 600 cubic metresper capita per year as water stress, 1 000 cubic metresper capita as water scarce, the Republic of Korea(at around 1 500 cubic metres), Singapore (at around1 700 cubic metres), and Maldives (at around 1 000cubic metres) are already water stressed or scarce.In addition, several other areas in the region includingthe Aral Sea in Central Asia, and the North Chinaplains are also experiencing acute shortages of water.Sectoral competition and conflicts in water-use(particularly between agriculture and industry) havealso become critical.
The marine and coastal environment is alsounder pressure from species over-exploitation andhabitat degradation, and is under the looming threatof potential climate change and sea level rise. Severalof the region’s most important fishing areas andalmost two thirds of the major fish species are eitherfully or over-exploited. About 80 per cent of thecoral reefs in Southeast Asia, 54 per cent in the IndianOcean, and 41 per cent in the Pacific Ocean, are atmedium to high risk.
3. Food SecurityThere has been a decline in the growth rate of
crop production over the past few years. Growth incereal production, for example, declined from 3.2 per
cent in 1969-71 to 1.9 per cent in 1994-96, anddecreased by a further per cent or so 1996/97 (FAOSOFA). The region has been a net food importer oflate, with cereal imports growing at an averageannual rate of 9.5 per cent in the period 1986/96.With regards to food security, the average daily foodavailability in calories falls below nutritionalrequirements in Bangladesh, Cambodia andMongolia, and close to them in Nepal, Sri Lanka,Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Papua NewGuinea and the Solomon Islands. Aquaculture isbecoming increasingly important to augment foodproduction, as the productivity of land declines andmany marine fish stocks are over-exploited. Theregion now contributes almost 90 per cent to the totalworld production of marine aquaculture.
4. Energy ConsumptionEnergy consumption has escalated with the
growth in industrialization and urbanization in theregion. Between 1975 and 1995, commercial energyuse in South Asia had an average annual growth rateof 6.6 per cent; and in Northeast Asia and the SouthPacific, 5.3 per cent, between 1975 and 1995 (WorldBank 1998). Per capita commercial energy use morethan doubled during the same period (UNEP 1999).Overall, the region accounted for 26.8 per cent of theworld’s commercial energy consumption in 1995.
C. Pollution TrendsThe urban areas are by far the worst affected
by air pollution. Of the major cities in the worldwith the highest levels of total suspended particulates(TSP) in the air, 9 are located in Asia. The levels ofTSP in many cities are two to three times thoserecommended by WHO. Six of the major cities withhigh levels of sulphur dioxide are also located in theregion (UNEP 1999). The impacts of haze, acid rainand transboundary air pollution have also increasedsubstantially.
Inland and coastal water pollution has alsoincreased in severity as a result of factors such asunplanned and unmanaged urbanization,industrialization and agrochemical use. Four riversin the region – the Yellow River in People’s Republicof China, the Ganges River in India, and the AmuDarya and Syr Darya in Central Asia – top the list ofthe worlds most polluted rivers, according to a reportof the World Commission on Water. In terms of levelsof suspended solids, the region’s rivers typicallycontain some four times the world average and20 times OECD country average levels (ADB 1997).Biological oxygen demand (BOD) in the Asian andPacific Region’s rivers is also 1.4 times the worldaverage, and they contain almost three times as muchbacteria from sewage. The reported median fecal
Figure 22.2 Fertilizer Consumption Trends in Asiaand the Pacific 1980-1997
Source: FAO 1999
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coliform count in the region’s rivers is reportedly50 times higher than the WHO guidelines (UNEP1999). Pollution of coastal and marine environmenthas also intensified and is evident in the increasedfrequency of algal blooms in the region’s seas, withmajor outbreaks in recent years in Australia, People’sRepublic of China, Republic of Korea, Japan and NewZealand.
The burden of waste has also increasedmarkedly, with rapid population growth,urbanization and increasing affluence. Conservativeestimates of waste arisings in the region give that1.5 million tonnes of municipal solid wastes areproduced per day, and 5.2 million tonnes of industrialsolid wastes; figures which are expected to more thandouble in the next 25 years (World Bank 1999). Thegeneration of hazardous wastes from manufacturing,hospital and health-care facilities and nuclear powerand fuel processing plants has also increasedtremendously. People’s Republic of China aloneproduces more than 50 million tonnes of hazardouswastes per annum.
D. Cost of Environmental DegradationOverall, it is estimated that the economic cost
to the region from environmental degradation rangesfrom 1 to 9 per cent of a country’s annual GNP (ADB1997), or an average of about 5 per cent of GDP; inPeople’s Republic of China, this may be as high as10 per cent (World Bank 1999). Non-economic costs,that affect welfare but not GDP, are even larger, butare often difficult to quantify (ADB 1997). Theeconomic cost of air pollution health damages isestimated at US$1 billion a year in cities such asBangkok and Jakarta (World Bank 1999).
E. Trends in Policy EnvironmentWhile most environmental trends are negative,
several positive changes can be discerned in the stateof policy responses across the region. Among theseare the improvement in governance by publicauthorities through strengthening of institutions;enhancements in the formulation and implementationof policies; growing environmental awarenessand public participation (Box 22.1); increasing
Box 22.1 Community Action for the Environment: Bhaonta-Kolyala Village in Rajasthan
It’s an unusual ritual the villages of Bhaonta-Kolyala follow. Every year, they pour water into a johad – a crescent-shapedearthen check-dam. This started in 1986, when villagers of Bhaonta-Kolyala noticed a remarkable development in Gopalpura, anearby village. Gopalpura had water in its wells round the year. The reason – villagers had revived johads with the help of TarunBharat Sangh, an NGO.
Led by two local farmers, the beleaguered villagers approached the TBS. They were offered help, but on one condition – thatthe villagers should be ready to take upon themselves the task of regeneration.
After organizing themselves and the neighbouring villages, on March 6, 1987, the villagers started protecting forests andrepairing old johads. They mapped the natural drainage system and chose tentative sites to construct new johads. The aim was tocatch each and every drop of rainwater that fell on the village, say the villagers.
During the course of their search, they discovered an old johad, buried in silt, on the slope of the barren hills. In 1988, repairwork on the johad started. When the monsoons arrived, the johad was filled with water. Overwhelmed by the results from a singlejohad, the villagers started building more such structures. Today, the village has a total of 15 water harvesting structures, including a244 metres long, 7 metres tall concrete dam in the upper catchment of the Aravalli, the construction for which was started in 1990.
The dam was a turning point. Even those who had migrated were called back. By 1995, a year after the completion of the dam,water level in the wells downstream rose by two to three feet. “The percolation of water from this dam is three feet an hour. Itsimpact is felt in villages 20 km downstream. All the wells are now filled with water,” says a villager. Today, all the agricultural landis under cultivation. Milk production has risen up to 10 times. Every rupee invested in a johad has increased the village’s annualincome by 2.5-3 times.
The most important lesson from Bhaonta-Kolyala is that when villages work with each other to regenerate the environment,there are unexpected blessings. Sometimes, they are as big as a river. In the case of Bhaonta Kolyala, it was Arvari River. In 1990,when the villagers started constructing the big dam, no one knew that the site was the origin of the river. And by catching andpercolating water, they were injecting life into the river. Moreover, building water-harvesting structures was not enough for thevillagers. To control soil erosion, they then went on to demarcate 12 square kilometres of the adjoining forest area for regeneration,and in 1995 they declared it as a public wildlife sanctuary, the “Bhaironath Public Wildlife Sanctuary”, claimed to be the first of itskind in the country, and now home to three tigers, many bluebulls and deer.
Source: Down to Earth, April 30, 2000
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environmental consciousness in business andindustry (Box 22.2); and enhanced interest andparticipation of NGOs and civil society inenvironmental management. Various efforts havebeen also made to explore innovative environmentalregulatory policies that are sensitive to country andlocal context, and socio-economic situations (Adenet al 1999; Afsah and Vincent 1997; World Bank 1999),traditional command and control regulation is inmany cases being supplemented by a variety ofsecond and third generation policy tools.
However, in terms of government allocations,some countries of the region, particularly inSoutheast Asia, have reduced the budget for theenvironment, although there are clear differences inthe precise nature of these cuts. In Thailand, forinstance, budgets have been reduced by about 20 percent, especially for pollution and energy conservation;the Philippines suffered a 25 per cent mandatoryreserve on many types of expenditures. In NortheastAsia, the Republic of Korea’s environmental budgetshrunk from 2.8 per cent in 1997 to only0.3 per cent in 1998 (ADB 1998). Moreover, highlyvisible instances of policy failure, such as the forestfires and haze that have plagued Southeast Asia, onlyserve to highlight the opportunity for policy reform
and more effective policy implementation, all on thebasis of stronger systems of governance within theregion.
PROJECTED TRENDS ANDFUTURE SCENARIOS
A. Socio-economicOver the next two decades, population growth
rates in the region are expected to declinesignificantly. In Northeast Asia, for example,population growth is expected fall from 0.9 per centper year, to 0.4 per cent, in the next 20 years. Inabsolute terms, however, the total population willincrease substantially with the addition of 700 millionpeople in the next 15 years in Asia alone (UNDP1999). This increase in population could be one ofthe most important factors for environmental stress,including scarcity of resources such as land, forest,water and biodiversity, and may contribute furtherto water and air pollution (Kainuma et al 1998). Theburgeoning population will be accompanied byincreasing number of urban dwellers. In 20 years’time, over half of the region’s population will live incities. Migration and urban reclassification willcontinue to contribute between 55 to 60 per cent of
Box 22.2 Private Sector Initiatives for Environmental Rehabilitation– the Use of Indigenous Techniques
Rehabilitation of arid lands subjected to mineral exploration has been accelerated and improved by the private sector inAustralia, by the application of Aboriginal fire management techniques. Such techniques assist seed release in regenerating spinifexgrasses, which in turn accelerates the rehabilitation of smaller disturbed areas, such as drill pads, hard standing areas and borrowpits. It also avoids the dominance by annual species previously experienced using other methods.
The initiative by an Australian company was first started by discussing the idea with local Aboriginal people. It was noted thata striking decline in the number of native mammals had taken place in the desert, and fewer species of flora were appearing. Studiesindicated that this decline had occurred recently, in the last 30 to 50 years, i.e. since Aboriginal groups had abandoned theirtraditional life in the Western Desert and settled in missions and other European communities. The last Aborigines moved out in theearly 1960s.
The source of this decline was soon revealed: when Aborigines moved out, with them went the practice of frequent burning.The great skills with which these fires were set by Aborigines to take advantage of wind conditions, humidity and topography,emerged in their conversations with scientists. Their pattern of burning meant that there were always many areas adjacent to eachother at different stages of growth and decline, and there was rarely enough fuel over a big area to feed the vast bush fires whichnow occur.
When the bushes re-burnt, the seeds stored in the sandy soil were heated. This made them receptive to the next rain, soon afterwhich 20 or 30 species of plants, most of them herbs, blossomed and provided food and medicine for local people and food andshelter for native fauna. Even after the heat of a fire had split the seed coat, the seeds had to wait several years for water, in a regionthat had a sparse 150 mm to 250 mm rainfall a year.
Having realized the value of the technique, the company employed local Aboriginal communities to burn the desert spinifex ina traditional way, which allowed the revival of scores of plant species and encouraged the return of many animals. The project alsoprovided guidelines for using fire to rehabilitate areas throughout the remote arid interior of Western Australia, and the company isnow conducting further trials to develop fire behaviour models that will help in planning safe burning programmes to enhance andprotect the remarkable desert ecosystem.
Source: Government of Australia 1999
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urban increase, and the number of cities with apopulation of more than 10 million is expected torise from 11 at present, to 18 by 2015, and willcontinued to increase in future (Kainuma et al 1998).
1. Economic GrowthAsia and the Pacific is projected to continue
with its high rates of output growth. Such growth iscritical in creating employment, alleviating povertyand making available resources for infrastructure andhuman resource development, and for increasingaccess to basic amenities. The projections show atendency towards convergence of growth ratesbetween different subregions, as well as betweencountries within a subregion. Long-term projectionsindicate that People’s Republic of China willconsolidate its position as the second largest economy,while the region will emerge as the largest economiczone in the world (Noland 1995).
Economic growth implies a shift to higherproductivity, thus the agricultural sector’s share inoutput and employment is expected to decline, asthere is a shift towards a predominance of industrialproductivity. This, in turn, implies an increasing useof energy, especially coal – a major source of pollution.Moreover, growth of the industrial sector invariablyoccurs in clusters in and around major cities, therebyinvoking the migration of the labour force into urbanareas, and pressurizing urban environments.
2. Income and Quality of LifeBased on the analysis of future growth in
Asia and the Pacific, it has been projected that threeout of five of the region’s absolute poor could belifted from poverty by 2025. South Asian countriesare likely to see a substantial reduction in poverty,where it has been predicted to fall below 20 per centby about 2025. However, despite these potentialimprovements, the region’s core poverty will still beconcentrated in South Asia. In People’s Republic ofChina, if the relationship between growth andpoverty continues to hold, “a dollar a day” povertyin People’s Republic of China could fall to less than10 per cent over the same period.
With the continuation of positive economictrends, the region’s health and nutrition profilewill also continue to improve. Child malnutritionin People’s Republic of China and Southeast Asiamay well decline to 15 per cent in 2020. However,South Asia will still have a large share of theundernourished children in the world; even underthe optimistic scenarios, 1 in 3 South Asian childrenunder 5 will remain undernourished. The lifeexpectancy at birth will improve all over the region,and is expected to reach an average of 70 years in theregion by 2030.
B. Natural Resources
1. Land, Forest and BiodiversityWithout major interventions, the rate of land
degradation is likely to continue (UNEP 1999).Maintaining, let alone improving, the situation forper capita land availability will be difficult, aspopulations continue to increase and agriculturalland is lost to urban, industrial and transportinfrastructure. The challenge is to optimize land usefor competing needs. Given the limited scope forexpanding croplands, future food production will relyheavily on the intensification of agriculture and useof fertilizer and pesticides. As past trends infreshwater supply indicates, it may not be possibleto expand irrigated lands any further, and they mayeven contract due to depletion of aquifers andenhanced competition with other users. Moreover,high rates of fertilization and pesticide-use may nottranslate to a corresponding increase in yield due toerratic and sometimes non-optional applications, andconcomitant negative environmental impacts ofagrochemical applications.
The region’s dominance of world trade intropical hardwoods is likely to decline in futurebecause of the depletion of timber reserves andincreased domestic wood consumption (UNEP 1998).Tropical forest destruction has gone too far to preventsome irreversible damage, and it would take manygenerations to replace the lost forests with plantations.If current rates of harvesting continue, the Asian andPacific Region’s timber supplies may vanish in lessthan 40 years. If continued, deforestation will alsofurther aggravate the widespread incidence ofdesertification, soil erosion, siltation, flooding andbiodiversity loss, and will be one of the majorcontributors to drought and potential threats ofclimate change. Forest plantation efforts are likely tointensify. The sustainable forest and agriculturalmanagement policies that were introduced in the1990s will continue to be implemented and may showmore promising results. Shifting cultivation maycontinue to pose a threat to watersheds, for instancethroughout the Mekong subregion. In Northeast Asia,particularly in Japan, Republic of Korea andDemocratic People’s Republic of Korea, the trade-offbetween forest protection and development willbecome a critical issue where there is limited flatland for urban and industrial expansion.
Increasing population pressure and land usechanges will continue to threaten the region’sbiodiversity. Some scientists project that a massextinction of species may take place in the tropicswithin the next 20-25 years, based on the fact thatonly about 10 to 30 per cent of natural habitats arenow left in many countries of the region (UNEP 1998).
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Genetic erosion may also intensify as the reliance onhigh yielding varieties increase. In India, for example,75 per cent of rice production may come only from10 varieties by 2005 compared with the over 30 000varieties traditionally cultivated.
Among resources, the most dramatic risein demand is for freshwater, for example, demandfor safe drinking water is anticipated to increasefive-fold in the next 40 years (Kainuma, M. et al 1998;Figure 22.3). Based on an acceptable threshold of1 600 cubic metres per capita per year, arid areassuch as Afghanistan and Iran (Islamic Republic of)will become water stressed by 2025 if the populationgrowth under the United Nations low and mediumprojections continues. Parts of India (e.g. Rajasthan)and People’s Republic of China will narrowly avoidthis situation. Increasing freshwater demand amongdifferent sectors will also intensify current sectoralconflicts. Although agriculture will continue to bethe largest consumer of water, the fastest increase inwater demand will occur in urban and industrialsectors, where demands are projected to climb135 per cent over the next 40 years (UNEP 1998).Water scarcity may also be exacerbated by potentialclimate change.
2. Aquatic ResourcesAs most fishing areas reach their maximum
potential and the production from capture fisheriesdwindles, aquaculture production will become anincreasingly important industry in the region.Predictions show that there may no longer be anincrease in average capture fisheries output. The rateof mangrove forest depletion and coastal and marineresource degradation may not halt, but will slowdown in many countries of the region due tointroduction of protective measures.
3. Food SecurityThe region is projected to remain a net food
importer in the near future (Alexandratos 1995). Thetrend in food availability in terms of calorie per capitais expected to improve by 2010, with projected calorieper capita of 2 450 for South Asia, 3 040 for NortheastAsia and 2 730 for all developing countries (Leisinger1996). Nevertheless, a United States Department ofAgriculture study indicates that the situation maydeteriorate in future in some countries of the region,which may face a decline in per capita consumptionof food during the next decade. The limiting factorsin meeting the challenge of producing more food willbe availability of productive land and supplies offresh water, especially in populous and arid areas.The region is thus expected to continue to rely heavilyon imported foods. It has been predicted that theregion’s share of world cereal imports may rise toabout 42 per cent from its current level of 33 per centby 2010 (ADB 1997). Even People’s Republic ofChina, which is currently self-sufficient in grainproduction may begin to import around 175 billiontonnes by 2025, an amount almost equal to totalcurrent world exports (Brown et al 1999).
4. Energy ConsumptionDemand for energy in Asia and the Pacific is
expected to double every twelve years, compared tothe world estimate of every 28 years (UNEP 1999).The total primary energy supply in the region(excluding Islamic Republic of Iran, Central Asia andsome South Pacific countries) is projected to rise from2 791 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 1997, to 4,392million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2010 (IEA 1998;Figure 22.4). The region’s primary energy supply isexpected to soar by 78 per cent, including People’sRepublic of China by 59 per cent and Japan, Australiaand New Zealand combined by 19 per cent. Coalwill remain the major fuel choice in future, especiallyin India and People’s Republic of China, and demandis projected to increase by 6.5 per cent a year (WorldBank 1997). Despite shrinkage in their uses,traditional sources of fuel such as firewood, charcoal,and crop and animal residues will continue to be
Figure 22.3 Projected Water Resources per Capita in2050
Source: Kainuma, M. et al (1998)
Disclaimer:1. Any boundaries and names shown and designations used
on this map do not imply official endorsement oracceptance by the United Nations.
2. The dotted line represents approximately the Line ofControl in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India andPakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has notyet been agreed upon by the parties.
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important sources of energy for rural populations indeveloping countries in coming decades. The use ofnuclear and hydropower is expected to grow,particularly in those countries without substantialfossil fuel resources (United Nations 1995). If currenttrends in economic development continue, the currentrate of energy consumption growth will more thantriple within the next 30 years.
C. PollutionAs material inputs expand, the pollution load
in terms of discharges in all of the natural sphereswill inevitably increase, with a corresponding highcost to human health. With unchanged policies andtechnologies, emissions from electricity generationand transportation in developing countries will growexponentially. Projections indicate that by 2030, theywill be between five and ten times higher than duringthe 1990s. Improved policies, however, could cut therate of emissions by about 20 per cent from theirprojected 2030 levels. Policy reforms in general,together with investments in low-pollutingtechnologies, can more or less stabilize emissions attheir 1990 levels.
The continuous growth in energy consumptionand reliance on energy sources with relatively highcarbon content, such as coal and oil, will enhance the
production of greenhouse gases such as CO2 in theregion. Under the high economic growth scenario,emissions will peak by 2050 at a level 2.7 times thatof 1990 and then start to fall two times the currentlevel by 2100 at around 13 Giga tonnes of Carbon(GtC) (Kainuma et al 1998). Since transport andpower generation, the fastest growing sectors, arelikely to remain as the prime consumers of energy,improvement of energy efficiency and implementationof initiatives for the development of mass transportsystem will help reduce the growing emission trends.The movement toward accelerated decarbonizationmade in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 will also enable areduction in overall greenhouse gas emissions by atleast 5 per cent below the 1990 levels in between2008 and 2012. It is estimated that suspendedparticulate matter (SPM) concentration in People’sRepublic of China’s atmosphere will increase 1.4 timesin 2020 and 3.5 times in 2050 larger than that in 1990under business as usual scenario. Figure 22.5 showsregional distribution of particulate matter withdiameter less than 10 µm in 1990 (PM10) (Kainumaet al 1998).
Inventories of anthropogenic sulphur emissionsare subject to uncertainty, particularly at the regionallevel. Current growth paths suggest that sulphurdioxide emissions in Asia and the Pacific will risefrom their 1990 level of about 40 million tonnes by2020. Introducing basic emission control technologiesin People’s Republic of China, India, and Pakistanand advanced technologies in other countries wouldcut emissions in 2020 by 40 per cent. Introducingadvanced technologies in all countries would cutsulphur dioxide emissions by 50 per cent, but willstill leave them 30 per cent above their 1990 level.Emissions could only be reduced below their currentlevels if all countries used the best technologyavailable, but the costs would be huge: more thanUS$590 billion by 2020.
Estimates show a worsening situation in termsof national and transboundary air pollution, fromSO2 and acid precipitation, unless effective abatementmeasures are taken. In Northeast Asia, for example,emissions of SO2 are expected to increase from about15 to 41 tonnes in 2020, which could exacerbate theproblem of cross-border acid rain. The areas withlowest critical loads (i.e. up to 320 milligramsper sq m) and which are most sensitive to acidicdeposition are located in South China and inSoutheast Thailand, Cambodia and South Viet Nam.
Water pollution may also worsen in manycountries of the region. The Republic of Korea hasinitiated a set of ambitious water quality targets for2001 and 2005, but considering the seriouseutrophication problems, especially in lakes, it willbe difficult to meet these standards; more so under a
Figure 22.4 Current and Projected Total PrimaryEnergy Supply in Asia and the Pacific1997 and 2010
Source: IEA 1998 and 1999
Notes: Excludes Central Asia, Islamic Republic of Iran and someSouth Pacific countries; based on business as usual scenario;one million tonnes of oil equivalent is equal to 41.868 x 1 015Joules
Solid fuelOil
GasNuclear
HydroCombustiblerenewablesand waste
Otherrenewables
1997
Solid fuel
Oil
GasNuclear
Hydro
Combustiblerenewablesand waste
Otherrenewables
2010
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scenario of increasing fertilizer use.Coastal and marine pollution in the region is
likely to increase in future. Untreated urban andindustrial wastes that find their way into the sea willcontinue to constitute a major threat to the coastaland marine environment. In addition, the mercuryassociated with long term nuclear wastes dumpingand oil spills caused by tanker accidents will continueto pose major threats to the overall quality of coastalwaters and damage to marine ecosystem and fisheryresources.
Another important problem will be caused bythe increase in wastes. Figure 22.6 shows the increasein wastes in the high and low economic growthscenarios. Municipal solid wastes would increasemore than seven times in Asia and the Pacific in thehigh growth scenario and three times in the lowgrowth scenario in 2030 (Kainuma et al 1998). In theshort term, according to the World Bank, municipalsolid wastes may more than double in the next
15 years (World Bank 1999). Furthermore, hazardouswastes generated by manufacturing, hospital andhealth-care facilities, and nuclear power and fuelprocessing plants are also estimated to more thandouble within the next 10 to 15 years.
D. Policy EnvironmentThere is a growing trend in the continued
advancement of policy and programmes which aimto integrate environmental consideration into theregion’s development framework. However, theresources and access to environmental technology willcontinue to present constraints in the implementationof policies for sustainable development. A lot willhinge upon the inputs and assistance of the developedcountries towards provision of new and additionalfinancial resources and the transfer of technology onconcessional terms. The role of major public interestgroups, particularly the private sector and NGOs,will continue to enhance.
Source: Kainuma, M. et al, 1998
Disclaimers:1. Any boundaries and designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.2. The dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status
of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties.
Figure 22.5 Suspended Particulate Matters in Asia and the Pacific
(a) SPM in 1990 (b) SPM in 2050 (under business as usual)
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CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Whilst population and unsustainable economicgrowth, poverty, consumption and globalization haveall been identified as key elements of change in theconditions of environment and natural resources, thefailure to avoid environmental degradation in theregion can to a large extent be traced to the weaknessof institutions, adoption of inappropriate policy toolsand the lack of effective policy enforcement. Theprincipal environmental challenge in the 21st Centuryis therefore policy reform and its effectiveimplementation in both individual and cross-sectoralareas. Meeting the sustainability challenge requiresnew policy approaches that integrate environmentalconcerns into the very core of investment, planningand technology decision-making in the region’seconomies.
A. Policy ChallengesThe implementation of appropriate policies and
programmes, enactment of laws, rules and standardsfor enforcement of policies, and creation of deliverymechanisms for the implementation of plans andenforcement by institutions all provide stability forthe environment. Challenges, in this respect, lie inhow governments can provide clear signals andincentives to the agents tasked to carry out theunderlying goals and objectives of development.Effective implementation of environmental legislationremains one of the biggest challenges in manycountries of the region. It needs to be resolved bybridging the gaps between intent and action.
At the national level, the most dauntingchallenge is not only to guide the overall developmentprocess on a sustainable path, but also to promotevertical coordination between various tiers of
government, at national, provincial and local levels,as well as horizontal coordination between the keysectors of the economy. The process of planformulation should involve intensive deliberationson those aspects of sustainable development mostrelevant to national priorities and extensiveparticipation of the public in giving their views andsuggestions on adoption of appropriate means toaccomplish sustainability.
An essential aspect of such plans, and oneoften omitted in practice, is the examination of suchcross-sectoral issues as budgetary priorities, trade andinvestment policies, specific technology needs,research and development, and roles of trans-nationalcorporations and international capital flows.Comprehensive analytical procedures for prior andsimultaneous assessment of the impacts of decisionson social and environmental aspects of sustainabilityneed to be applied, not only at the project and sectorallevels (Box 22.3), but also in the analysis ofprogrammes and policies including macro-economicpolicies.
The 1992 Earth Summit moved the concept ofsustainable development to the forefront of publicdiscourse in Asia and the Pacific and around theworld. If sustainable development remains somewhatelusive as an organizing principle for the worldeconomy as a whole, the events of the 1990s helpedto bring the concept into sharper focus in a regionalcontext. From the Asian economic crisis, to forestburning, haze and continued destruction of coastalecosystems, as well as many other environmental anddevelopment challenges, two key dimensions ofsustainable development in the region emerge. Thefirst is the urgent imperative to dramatically reducesevere poverty and improve socio-economic welfarefor much of the population. The second, is thatsustainable development in Asia and the Pacific must
Figure 22.6 Projected Municipal Solid Wastes Generation in Asia and the Pacific 2030
(a) Projection of municipal solid wastes under (b) Projection of municipal solid wastes underthe low growth scenario the high growth scenario
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
Europe + CIS
Africa + Middle East
2030
2010
1990
Tg/year
3000
2500
2000
1000
1500
500
0
2030
2010
1990
Tg/year
3000
2500
2000
1000
1500
500
0Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
Europe + CIS
Africa + Middle East
Source: Kainuma, M. et al, 1998
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resolve the escalating demands for energy, materials,water and other resource inputs to production andconsumption that accompany economic growth.
Much of Asia and the Pacific is in the midst ofan urban-industrial transition unprecedented in scaleand intensity. The development growth trends forthe region outlined earlier in this Chapter make thechallenge of achieving sustainable developmentparticularly significant, not just for the Asian andPacific Region, but for the global economy as a whole.Fortunately, those same trends also providesignificant opportunities for addressing the challengeof clean (i.e. green) and shared (i.e. pro-poor) growthin the region over the next two decades.
B. Sectors and Mechanisms for ActionIn response to the sustainable development
challenges facing the region, a number of key sectors(or areas) for action, and mechanisms forimplementing these actions, can be identified, asdiscussed below.
1. Environmental Quality and Human HealthAmong the most significant environmental
challenges for the region are those facing the region’scities. Despite their potential to offer a better qualityof life, the cities are often beset by growing problemsof environmental deterioration relating to the loss of
natural resources, the lack of adequate shelter anddwelling, deteriorating ambient air and water qualityconditions, inadequate infrastructure, and anincreasing deterioration in urban services provision,including water supply and sanitation facilities, andmunicipal, industrial and hazardous wastemanagement. These conditions impact directly uponthe health and welfare of urban residents, and inparticular the poor, leading to the widespreadincidence of infectious diseases, including acuterespiratory infections.
2. Globalization and Policy IntegrationEconomic development in Asia and the Pacific
over the next two decades will occur in aninternational context. From flows of capital,technology, ideas and information, to the increasingglobal reach of corporations, non-governmentalorganizations, and regulatory organizations,development is now a global process. Linkagesamong businesses, consumers, citizens, andorganizations are becoming both more extensive andmore intensive in their character. For some, theseprocesses of globalization will usher in a world withmore inequality and more volatility, where the costsand benefits do not fall equally among the rich andthe poor (Greider 1997), and where deepeningenvironmental problems are the inevitable result. For
Box 22.3 Integrated Environment and Business Planning– The Case of Two Shrimp Farms in Indonesia
The intricate relationships of environmentally and economic sustainability have formed the basis of much research at theglobal, national and regional levels. Recent case studies of two comparable shrimp farms in Indonesia, however, offer an interestingexample of how financial injections and poor business management, in the absence of local by-in, can lead to unsustainabledevelopment at the project level.
At one time, Lampung in southern Sumatra, with an area of 80 000 hectares, was reputed to be the largest shrimp farm in theworld, and produced around 50 000 tonnes of shrimp per annum. At the beginning of the 1990s, a combination of bi-lateral andinternational financing was channelled through a financier to provide loans to 7 750 farmers taking part in the scheme, amounting toabout US$65 000 each. They used this to purchase shares in a plot, the majority of which remained under the ownership of thefinancier. Loans were undertaken on the expectation of full repayments and personal profits within 8 years. The scale of theestablishment provided work for an additional 30 000 labourers. Feed, fry, power and other necessities were all provided by thefinancier, and paid for by the farmers out of their returns. However, farmers were forced to take out further loans, or to default onpayments of their original loan, when harvests fell short, and could not recover these losses when harvest improved, since repaymentsalso increased during these periods. This led to growing tensions between farmers, farm management and the banks, the tripling offarmer’s debts, and the recall of many of the farms. Consequently, some 18 000 ponds have fallen into disrepair or disuse to theextent that many are now potential hazards to the environment.
Just north of the farm, in Wachyuni Mandira, a similar establishment was also developed and began its operations around fiveyears later. The deal offered to the Wachyuni Mandira shrimp farmers, however, facilitated ‘total ownership’. As a result of carefulfinancial and business planning, and the use of many years of experience of local fishermen and elders, conditions on the farm haveremained stable, careful observation has been taken of environmental sensitivities, and increasingly higher yields have been supported.Whilst rising profit margins have also led to some management-worker tensions at times, local buy-in has again been advanced andthe operation continues to expand, demonstrating the “win win” benefits to the business and to the environment when careful andcautious business planning is observed.
Source: Far Eastern Economic Review 30 May 2000 and Jakarta Post 30 March 2000
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others, globalization offers vast new opportunitiesfor improvements in social-economic welfare. Inmany ways, the Asian economic crisis of 1997/98was a test case for these viewpoints. But it is alsoimportant to place the events of 1997/98 in thebroader context of the economic achievements of thepast three decades among the newly industrializingeconomies of the region. The capital flows that werea source of volatility in 1997/98 fuelled much of thegrowth that occurred in past decades. The events of1997/98 were more a crisis of institutions and ofeffective regulation than an indictment of economicintegration and international investment.
Globalization is perhaps best conceptualizedas an accelerator of change, rather than as a processthat necessarily entails positive or negative outcomes.The challenge and the opportunity for the Asian andPacific region are those of harnessing the processesof globalization to the goals of sustainabledevelopment, including reductions in poverty andimprovements in the environmental performance ofeconomic activity. Indeed, it is difficult to imaginethat the challenges of sustainable development in theregion can be met without effective deployment ofthe tremendous resources and know-how that arecontained within the global economy as a whole. Atthe core of this process is the private market economy.But public policy also has a crucial role to play inshaping processes of private investment and increating the enabling environment in which privateinvestment takes place.
3. Energy Efficiency and the Promotion of CleanTechnologyA major concern for the region is that the
current environmental policy does not effectivelyaddress the escalating demand for energy. Fromagriculture to energy supply, transportation totourism, the sustainability transition requires asubstantial acceleration in current trends towardsefficiency improvements in economic processes. Theplace to begin such an initiative is with the calculationof current levels of environmental performance andthe identification of aggressive but attainable goalsfor reducing energy, materials, pollution and wasteintensity. The policy tools for assessing these trends,such as life-cycle analysis and materials flow analysis,are now available (Allenby 1999; Graedel and Allenby1995; Socolow et al 1994). In industry this entailsassessing and reducing energy and materials use ina dynamic of continuous improvement, as well asreducing pollution and waste discharges throughoutthe entire process of production or manufacture. Inagriculture it entails tracking the use of chemicals,energy, water and other materials in the productionof food. Importantly, goals for reducing energy,
materials, pollution and waste intensity need to beexamined within broad industrial sectors, such asthe manufacturing industry, and need to be adoptedby the industrial ministries responsible for thedevelopment of these economic sectors.
Perhaps the key opportunity related toenvironmental intensity lies in shaping the patternof new urban-industrial investment. Attracting andpromoting clean technology investment in industryand in urban development will be critical to reducingthe energy, materials, pollution and waste intensityof economic activity as a whole. To some degree,this goal will be met through the attraction of newinvestment and capital turnover. Evidence suggeststhat within many sectors of economic activity newcapital tends to be cleaner than old. Nevertheless,the sustainability transition requires improvementsthat go beyond the modest improvements inenvironmental performance secured through capitalturnover per se. Investments in research anddevelopment, in accelerated technology transfer, andin the enhanced modification and extension of cleantechnologies will also be required.
4. Poverty Reduction StrategiesEfforts to reduce poverty must be
comprehensive enough to address all of its manycauses, and their success is fundamentally linked tosound economic management and good governance,at all levels. To be effective, poverty reductionstrategies must simultaneously address the combinedgoals of ensuring that all poor households areprovided with the opportunity to earn a sustainablelivelihood, while ecologically-vulnerable areas arehandled in an integrated manner encompassingresource management, poverty alleviation andemployment generation. They also need to becomplemented by social development policies thatpermit access by the poor to education, health, socialprotection and other basic services.
A range of activities need to be undertaken byindividual countries (including governments, NGOsand other citizen’s groups), for instance, to investigatethe environmental implications of investment inpoverty reduction strategies, and to examine theeffectiveness, practicality and appropriate forms ofpolicy aimed at achieving poverty reduction andsustainable environmental management in differentagro-ecological zones and urban environments. Theconcept of zoning enables different strategies to bedeveloped to suit different zones. For example, inareas of low agricultural potential, in which thethresholds of ecological sensitivity and resilience havenot yet been crossed, social welfare transfers to thepoor could be channelled through public worksprogrammes geared at supplementing natural
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resilience, such as tree-planting by means of rainwaterharvesting in drylands.
From an international perspective, the worldhas, in recent decades, become increasingly inter-dependent with the emergence of a global economy.The formation of this economy has been accompaniedby policies and practices whereby the developedcountries now heavily influence the terms underwhich the developing countries participate in theinternational system (United Nations 1995). Thiscould potentially have significant negative impactsfor poverty and the environment. There is, therefore,an urgent need to examine the effects of developedcountries’ macroeconomic and trade policies onenvironmental management behaviour also remains,in particular the consequences for the poor.
5. Strategic Environmental Management
(a) Integrating Economic and EnvironmentalPolicyTo secure the progress in environmental
performance needed to offset future growth ineconomic activity, policy-makers will need to focuson the fundamentals of investment, technology andproduction, or what have been labelled elsewhereas the “denominators” of economic activity.Traditionally environmental policy-makers havefocused on pollution and other negative outputs ofeconomic activity, and has not taken a strategicapproach which recognizes core economic processesas part of the domain of responsibility. Investment,technology choices, land use planning and other keyelements of economic activity have been influencedonly indirectly, by means of environmental regulation,taxes, and subsidies of one form or another. Focusingdirectly upon core economic processes opens up therange of policy instruments that can be brought tobe bear on the sustainability challenge, fromeducation to industrial policy, from trade totechnology policy. It also allows for the strategiccoordination of policies across a variety of areas, suchas agriculture, urban, trade and environment policy.Careful coordination of economic and environmentalpolicy will be crucial if countries are to balancecompeting priorities, such as the desire to reducepollution while also improving industrial output. Thegoal of reducing poverty while improvingenvironmental performance will require carefulcoordinated economic planning at the national levelaround issues of investment and infrastructuredevelopment within urban and rural areas. Theeconomies of the region will also need to integrateeconomic and environmental policy at the highestlevels of government, and internalize environmentalperformance into the core of investment andtechnology planning.
(b) Setting Clearly Defined GoalsThe experience of the past decade has
confirmed the importance of clearly articulated andconsistently implemented goals for sustainabledevelopment, as well as effective monitoring andreporting of the progress that is made towardachieving these goals. It is for this reason thatorganizations such as the ADB, UNDP and ESCAPhave placed a high priority upon the specification ofmeasurable goals at the national level for such issuesas reducing pollution, eliminating poverty, andimproving social welfare. These goals must besupported by a low cost, transparent, and scaleableprogramme of performance measurement thatreaches up from the individual organization to theindustrial sector and to the economy as a whole.Clear and consistent goals are crucial to the creationof a stable enabling environment for research,investment, and strategic planning on the part ofcommunities, firms, industries, and financiers. A keypriority for countries of the region must be the furtherdevelopment and specification of short and mediumterm goals for sustainable development, and fundingof the necessary research and monitoring capabilityto identify indicators and to track progress towardthese goals.
(c) Influencing New Investment and TechnologyChoicesThe very processes of urban and industrial
growth, which potentially constitute a shadow onthe environmental future of the region, also createsignificant opportunities to influence processes of newinvestment and technological change. Much of thecapital stock and infrastructure that will be in placein the region twenty years from now is not on theground today. The opportunity exists for manydeveloping economies in Asia and the Pacific to turnthe trajectory of urban-industrial investment towarda pathway that is dramatically less energy, materials,and waste intensive, i.e. to shape the process of urban-industrial development as it happens. When theOECD countries moved to strengthen environmentalregulation during the 1960s and 1970s, the challengewas one of improving the environmental performanceof mature industrial economies, typically through theretrofit application of end of pipe pollution control.In Asia and the Pacific today the challenge howeveris one of influencing the technology and planningchoices of new industrial and urban investment.Already across a wide variety of industrial sectors,newer cleaner technologies are economically viablealternatives to older dirty technologies. If the processof new industrial and urban investment in the regionis based on the development, deployment and use ofever-cleaner technology and infrastructure, this will
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go a long way toward moving the region toward apathway of sustainable development.
(d) Promotion of Non-Regulatory MechanismsOne of the important corollaries of globalization
is the increasing importance of non-regulatory driversof environmental performance in economic activity.Tighter links between consumers and producers,and the growing availability of environmentalperformance information, are enhancing thesignificance of eco-labelling and similar programmes.Within large production networks, supply chainmanagement is now an important tool forenvironmental management, and increasingly, issuesof environmental performance are beginning toinfluence investment decisions. The full impact ofnon-regulatory drivers on environmental performanceis hard to assess accurately at this time. However, itis understood that the effectiveness of non-regulatorydrivers is likely to depend on the quality ofinformation on environmental performance that is
available within and among organizations. Therefore,public policy can most effectively promote non-regulatory drivers by supporting a programme oflow cost, standardized and transparent environmentalperformance information disclosure for firms andindustries.
6. Governance, Institutions and Capacity BuildingWhether or not the challenges will be met and
whether the opportunities for sustainabledevelopment will be taken depends to a significantextent upon the evolution of structures of governancewithin the Asian and Pacific Region and the globaleconomy as a whole. The successful implementationof a more transformative policy framework in supportof sustainable development will require broadengagement of multiple stakeholders and a strongcommitment to collaborative and participativegovernance (see Box 22.4). The bedrock of suchcollaborative governance is access to information anda commitment to democratic decision-making.
Box 22.4 ECO ASIA and the Promotion of Regional Cooperation for the Environment
In order to promote regional cooperation on environmental issues, and thus to contribute to sustainable development in Asiaand the Pacific, the Environment Agency of Japan has been working hard to promote regional dialogue on environmental policy. Tothis end, in 1991, Japan initiated the Environment Congress for Asia and the Pacific, or ECO ASIA in short, which has convened eighttimes since then.
ECO ASIA is regarded as one of the leading forums for environmental policy dialogue in Asia and the Pacific region. Keyactivities to date which have been implemented under ECO ASIA include the following.
• ECO ASIA ’99 (the eight session), held in Sapporo, Japan in September 1999, was attended by 111 participants from 17 countriesin the region, including 8 Environment Ministers and 12 representatives from 11 international organizations. In addition toallowing individual countries to present their own environmental status reports, some of the key outcomes of the sessions werethe common points of agreement which emerged between members, which, for example, included: that links should bestrengthened between ECO ASIA and parliamentarians or parliamentarian groups around the region, to promote commonpolicy responses and raise environmental awareness in the political arena; the importance of promoting “win-win” approachesto combating climate change, and the wider and more effective participation of both developing and developed countries inthis process; and the need for enhanced technology transfer to developing countries by the private sector, inter-governmentaland scientific networks, for example, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET).
• The ECO ASIA Long-term Perspective Project was initiated at ECO ASIA ’93. It aimed to provide decision-makers in the regionwith a scientific basis for policy formulation in order to support the process of sustainable development through to 2025. Toachieve this, it forecasts, on a continuing basis, the probable state of the environment in Asia and the Pacific in 2025, andidentifies policy options for the realization of sustainable development. In Phase I (1993-1997) it evaluated current and futureenvironmental and socio-economic issues in the region and offered ‘Asia-Pacific Eco-Consciousness’ as a conceptual tool forbuilding partnerships. Objectives of Phase II (1998-2001) include capacity-building for personnel and institutions of theparticipating countries.
• Establishment of the Environmental Information Network for Asia and the Pacific (ECO ASIA NET) was proposed by theEnvironment Agency of Japan at ECO ASIA ’96. ECO ASIA NET aims at supporting sustainable development in the regionthrough information sharing and dissemination by using Internet and other available communications technology. It providesa vital forum for information sharing on the environment among stakeholders, including policy-makers, businesses and NGOsacross the region.
Source: http://www.ecoasia.org
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Collaborative governance will need to link effectivelywith multiple scales of decision-making, frominternational organizations such as the World TradeOrganization and the ADB, to decentralized systemsof local and regional representative government.Only in this way will the goals and aspirations of thepeople of Asia and the Pacific be met.
Many of the decisions and initiatives requiredto promote sustainable development will take placeon a local, regional and urban scale. From land usecontrols to approaches to water and energy supply,effective decision making requires mobilization ofknowledge regarding local context, challenge andopportunity. Over the next two decades,decentralization and devolution of decision-makingbelow the national scale is likely to accelerate withinmany countries of the region. As decentralizationtakes place, it is critically important that this processbe matched by the investment of resources andbuilding of local and regional institutional capacity.Many advances in improving environmentalperformance during the 1990s have derived frompolicies that are implemented at the local level. Muchremains to be done in decentralizing and enhancingcapacity, especially in the areas of sustainable forestmanagement, rural development financing, andintegrated coastal resource management.
Finally, the aforementioned integration ofenvironmental concerns into economic policy shouldbe accompanied by continued efforts to strengthenenvironmental regulation and resource managementsystems within the region. As indicated, evidence inthis report suggests that where environmental policiesare effectively designed and consistently enforced,improvements in environmental performance result.The state of environmental regulatory capability andpractice is quite variable within the region. Somecountries already have widely developedenvironmental regulatory systems and enforcementcapacity, and the emphasis in these cases should beon the pushing beyond compliance, and on the useof 2nd and 3rd generation policy instruments, such asinformation disclosure and market-basedinstruments. In many of the region’s developingcountries, the key priority is on strengthening policyimplementation and enforcement of basic systems ofenvironmental protection. Throughout the region,environmental protection systems will be called uponto protect public health through the establishmentof clear and consistently enforced ambientenvironmental standards.
CONCLUSION
This analysis of the state of environment inAsia and the Pacific in the year 2000 demonstrates
that overall environmental conditions continue todeteriorate. Deterioration can be seen in over a thirdof the region’s croplands, it’s falling water tables,and it’s diminishing forests. Recent and unprecedentedforest fires not only destroyed thousands of hectaresof forests, but also perpetuated the polluting hazefrom Indonesia to India. Perhaps, the most significantsingle indicator of the region’s deterioratingenvironmental health is the declining biodiversityfrom wilderness, oceans, and cultivated landscape.
In this gloomy scenario, hopeful trends areevident in the decline in birth rates and fertility levels,increased life expectancy, somewhat reduced povertylevels, improved levels of nutrition, growing publicawareness and participation, an improved policyenvironment and an enhanced role of the privatesector in environmental protection, and the promotionof sustainable development. For example, somedeveloping countries have dramatically lowered birthrates and moved forward towards populationstability. However, with its heavy base even beforestabilization, the population growth momentum islikely to continue in sheer scale and number at leastin the early part of the 21st Century.
Implementation of appropriate policies andprogrammes, enactment of laws, rules and standardsfor enforcement of policies, and creation ofappropriate delivery mechanisms are the key policychallenges for the region. Moreover, in the wake ofdevelopment needs, the resources for investment inenvironment are low, which poses a dauntingchallenge in generating resources by innovativemeans. A new policy model based on a mix ofcommand and control and market-based mechanismswith a strong but limited government steer is gainingground in countries like Malaysia and the Philippines.This is characterized by the role of government as afacilitator rather than provider; by a prominentprivate sector and civil society; and by a pricingreform on environmental goods and services andimproved management. The model appears to havegreat potential for developing countries of Asia andthe Pacific as it can be achieved by a governmentthat is deficit of financial resources.
If a strategy to promote sustainabledevelopment in the region is to succeed, it must alsofocus on poverty eradication. Although there is arepeated acknowledgment of both the vicious “cycleof poverty” and its intrinsic linkages with theenvironment and the urgency to address povertyalleviation, little evidence has emerged to show thateffective and concerted actions that have been takenin that direction. Empowerment of communities andprovision of access to resources could be mostpowerful mechanisms towards alleviation of povertywhile improving the environment.
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The entry into the new millennium has alsobrought forward the key limits to economic growthin terms of natural resources, such as freshwaters,forests, rangelands, fisheries and biological diversity.There is a need to recognize these natural limits andadjust national economies accordingly, promoteefficiency in the use of water, energy and materials,curb growing profligacy in the use of resources, andreflect the cost of loss of natural resources andenhancing pollution in the estimation of nationalincomes. It is extremely important not to letaccelerating change outstrip the assimilative capacityof the natural environment, and overwhelm politicalinstitutions through an extensive breakdown of theecological system on which the economy depends.
These issues are enshrined in Agenda 21, whichadvocates utilization of natural resources in harmonywith nature. The ultimate realization of the objectivesof Agenda 21 depends to a large degree on nationaland local governments because they are in the frontierof development actions. They create and enforcelegislation on the use of natural resources. Theyformulate and implement development plans. Theymaintain institutions that embody and monitor theimplementation of environmental and developmentpolicies. However, the supportive role of the developedcountries in the provision of financial resources andtechnology transfer remains equally important.
Globalization, while opening the awareness fordevelopment has also made developing countries ofthe region vulnerable to trade sanctions and
international pressures. These sanctions could beprovoked by countries’ perceptions of a regionalviolation in environmental standards. Moreover, newand emerging issues and challenges have nowsurfaced as a result of bioprospecting and recentdevelopments in biotechnology (particularly thoserelated to genetically modified organisms).Multinational companies are exercising propertyrights and patent regimes presenting dangers ofbiopiracy, and monopolization of improved varietiesof seeds which are threatening the cultural andtraditional rights of indigenous communities andoriental farmers.
Whilst Agenda 21 and Rio+5 clearly recognizedthe principle of “common but differentiatedresponsibilities”, translation of this principle intoreality has not risen beyond the narrow self-interestof states. The commitments made by developednations regarding financing and technology transferare still far from their realization.
Under these troublesome scenarios, the needfor acquiring information and promoting regional andsubregional cooperation was never so pressing in Asiaand the Pacific as it is today. Regional cooperation isvital for providing opportunities for ensuring acoordinated response to continuously increasingpressures of globalization. Moreover, the dwindlingavailability of international financial resources,technology transfers, and unfavourable trade regimes,demand enhanced regional unity in a proactiveresponse.
