Upload
petrobras
View
1.208
Download
3
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
José Sergio Gabrielli de AzevedoPetrobras CEOMay 25th, 2011
BRAZIL AS THE NEW HOTSPOT
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
DISCLAIMER
2
GROWING PRODUCTION FULLY SUPPORTED BY DISCOVERIES
2 ,0 0 4 1,6 8 4 1,50 0 2 7 4 3 3 4
6 2 3
1. 10 9
2 5 2
176
2 0 3
14 416 33 59 6
10 112 8
12 0
2 2
2002 2005 2010 2014 2020Oil Production - Brazil Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Gas Production - International
Pre‐Salt
Petrobras Total Production (000 b/d)
241
12,131
Proven Reserves 2002
14,913
Proven Reserves 2005
15,986
Proven Reserves 2010
5,000
Transfer of Rights
29,000‐31,000
Total Resource Base
HigherEstimates9,600
Lower estimates8,100
• 18th consecutive years of fully replacing the production (229% in 2010)
• R/P ratio 18.4 years (SPE Criteria)
1,078
1,809 2,2172,583
5,382
3,907
4.5% p.y.
7.6% CAGR
...
Potential Recoverable (Lula, Cernambi, Iara, Guará and
Whales Park)
Petrobras Total Reserves (bln boe) ‐ SPE Criteria
...
3,9502,980
3
8,63
4,403,02 2,47 3,18 2,70 2,61 2,42 1,93 2,33 2,20 1,94 1,83 1,74 1,61 1,58
0,670,42
0,090,99 0,07
0,03
‐123456789
10
US
China
Japan
Brazil 20
20
Brazil 20
14
India
Russian Fede
ration
Saud
i Arabia
Germany
Brazil 20
09
South Ko
rea
Canada
Mexico
France
Iran
United Kingdo
m
Italy
2009 Total Oil Consumption by Country (mmbo/d)
BRAZIL AS A LARGE AND GROWING EMERGING MARKET
Source: BP Statistical Review 2010, PFC EnergyNote: * Petrobras Estimates for 2014 and 2020 ** Petrobras figures for 2009
Brazil is world’s tenth‐largest oil consumer.
Brazil oil consumption growing at 2.38% p.y.;
OECD oil consumption growing at ‐0.04% p.y.
18.7
Total Oil Consumption mb/d (index)
4
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Brazil
US
OECD
World
**
Above 3mmbo/d Between 2‐3 mmbo/d
Oil Products (Includes blend of Ethanol and Biodiesel)Hydrated EthanolBiodiesel Note: Brazil is the only country in the world that uses Hydrated Ethanol as a substitute of gasoline
*
4
MORE OIL FROM FEWER PRODUCERS
IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 5
MAIN FLOWS - LONG COURSE (OIL and OIL PRODUCTS)
WAF: West Africa (Nigeria)
AG: Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia and Iraq)
Far East: (Singapore and China)
Caribe : Saint Lucia and Dutch West Indies Source: Petrobras 2010
USA
WAFAGCaribbean
Far East
Import
International trades
Export
Argentina
IndiaAfrica – Med.
Europe
Chile
6
B.CamposAngra dos Reis
São Francisco do Sul
São Sebastião
MAIN FLOWS ‐ COASTAL NAVIGATION
LPG
Clean and dirtyproducts
Petroleum
Santos
Rio de Janeiro Macaé
Manaus
Salvador
Vila do Conde
São Luis Fortaleza
Paranaguá
Suape
Belém
Porto Alegre
Aratu
Coari
Source: Petrobras 2010 7
OILFIELDS DISCOVERED/DEFINED IN 1984-2009 IN THE SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE BASINS
8
INTEGRATED VALUE CHAIN
Our main lines: Key Statistics and market position (2010)
Exploration and Production
• 15.3 Bn boe of 1P(SPE)
• 2.3 mm boedproduction
•98.5% of Brazilian production
• 20% of deepwater production
RTM (incl. Petrochemicals)
• 12 refineries
• 2.0 mm bbl/d refining capacity
• 11.2 mm t/ynominal petrochemical capacity2)
Retail
• 7,306 service stations
•38.8% market share
Gas and Power
• 14,246 km of pipelines
•Participation in 20 of 27 discos of gas in Brazil
• 5,944 MW of Electricity Generation capacity
International
• 25 countries
• 0.7 Bn boe of 1P(SPE)
• 245 mil boed of production
• 281 mil bbl/d refining capacity
•Petrochemical, Gas and Power activities
Biofuels
• 3 new biodiesel plants
• Ethanol: new markets
• Responsible for 10% of Brazilian ethanol exports.
E&PRTMG&PPetroquímica
53%
33%
2%1%2%8%
1%
Business Plan 2010‐2014US$ 224.1 Bn
MarketingBiofuelsCorporative Brasil
95%
Internacional5%
Opportunities: Economic GrowthGeopolitical stabilityHydrocarbon potentialBiofuels
Challenges:Critical resources (goods and services, human resources)FinancingEnergy Integration
9
LONG HISTORY OF TECHNOLOGICAL AND OPERATIONAL LEADERSHIP IN DEEPWATER
Deepwater Production2009 Gross Global Operated¹
Offshore Production Facilities
100
5
8
8
9
10
12
12
13
15
15
45
0 20 40 60 80 100
Others
ENI/Agip
ConocoPhillips
CNOOC
Total
Anadarko
Chevron
BP
ExxonMobil
StatoilHydro
Shell
Petrobras
FPSO Semi Spar TLP OtherPetrobras operates 20% of global deepwater production
1977Enchova410ft125m
1988Marimbá1,610ft491m
1994Marlim3,370ft1,027m
1997Marlim Sul5,600ft1,707m
2003Roncador6,180ft1,884m
2009Lula
7,125ft2,172m
Source: PFC EnergyNote: (1) These 15 operators account for 98% of global deepwater production in 2009. Minimum water depth is 1,000 feet (about 300 meters)
PBR20%
ExxonMobil13%
Shell12%BP
12%
Statoil12%
Chevron7%
Total7%
BG4%
Anadarko3%
Other10%
10
PRE-SALT SUPERGIANTS DISCOVERIES:LOGISTICAL SYNERGIES
Logistical SynergiesLogistical Synergies:Analogy with the U.S.
Logistical Synergies:Logistical Synergies:Pre‐salt giant oil fields discovered close
to the market
Source of the base map: Google 11
PRE-SALT SUSTAINABILITY
EnvironmentalEnvironmental
FinancialFinancial
SocialSocial
Ex: Commitment to giveenvironmental friendly destinationto the carbon dioxide producedfrom Pre‐Salt reservoirs, ...
Ex:• Lula Pilot breakeven in the US$ 35‐45/bbl oil price range.• Consortia sanctioned procurementof 13 FPSOs
Create jobs and income
Reinforce internal market
Strengthen Brazilian economy
Local content
Expanded supply capacity
New suppliers
Lower prices
More equipment availability
Increased flexibility
12
Strategic Subjects
Prominp Projects Portfolio
CHALLENGEMaximize Local
Content
STRATEGIC SUBJECTS
Sustainability Competitiveness
Safety, Environmentand Health
Industry Performance
Tax Policy
Financing Regulation
Foster micro and small companies
Industrial Policy
IndustrialCapacity
ProfessionalQualification
Technological Qualification
Qualification
E&P MT Downstream GP&Pipelines O&G IND Environment Technology
The local content is part of National Petroleum Agency evaluation
13
PRODUCTIVE DEVELOPMENT POLICY
TechnologicalSupply Chain Stimulation
Increasing Demanding
Phase I Phase II Phase III
• Industry Reactivation
• Shipyard Consolidation
• Supply network establishment
• Professional Qualification
• Research and Technological Development
• Productive chain consolidation
Local ContentInternational
competitive level> Local Content
14
Fiscal stimulus packages in the supply chain for naval industry
Fund for Vessels Construction (FGCN ‐ Fundo Garantidor da Construção
Naval)
Offshore Naval Industry
Competitiveness
Industry Consolidation
o Decree nº 6.704/2009: Federal Excise Tax (Imposto sobre Productos Industrializados—IPI) suspension for goods to naval industry
o Law nº. 11774/2008: PIS/PASEP e COFINS percentage reduction to zero on equipments destined to naval construction.
o Fund for Vessels Construction ‐ Law nº. 11.786/2008, with recourses of R$ 5 billon.
Legal Outline Technological Outline
Ricino – Rede de Inovação para
Competitividade da Indústria
Naval e Off‐Shore
CiasResearch Institutes
Government
STRATEGIC VIEW OF NAVAL SUPPLY CHAIN: DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
15
Source: Sinaval
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Eisa
Bras
Fels
RioNa
ve
Enav
i‐Ren
ave
Mau
áST
X Bra
silAl
iança
Supe
rpes
aSR
DCa
ssind
úSã
o Migu
el
MAc
Laur
en O
il
Wils
on, S
ons
NAviS
hip
Detro
itTW
BIta
jaí
Rio Gr
ande
Atlân
tico S
ulIna
ce
Rio M
agua
ri
180
Rio de Janeiro
Source: Sinaval - April 2010
São PauloSanta Catarina
Rio Grande do SulPernanbuco
Ceará
Pará
SHIPYARD PROFILE INDUSTRY
National Shipyards ‐> 269 projects under construction
• Including:• * 14 Production Platforms• 2 Jack‐ups• 26 PROMEF 1• 23 PROMEF 2 • 39 ships regarding EBN1 and EBN2
Steel(thou
sand
tons / year)
Brazilian shipbuilding capacity
Source: Sinaval 2010 and Petrobras
16
* P-55; P-56 ;P-58 P-61 ;P-62; P-63; P-66; P-67; P-68; P-69; P-70; P-71; P-72; P-73
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Average Fleet Size DWT (average contracted) Stopovers Cargo shipped
SHIPPING EVOLUTION
Source: Petrobras (AB‐LO/TM/IETM)
8.1 8 8.410.1
11.513.5 14.6
110 110 116130
148
175 1785,823
5,267 5,411
7,050 7,4417,657 7,808127.4 123.3
132.8
146.7157.6
167.6 169.1
Number of ships
Million of tons
Numbers
Million of tons
17
2
2.6
1.31.1
0.70.5
0.70.6
0.30.3
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
19 0 04 9 0 0 6 5 0 0 7 5 0 0
12 5 0 0 14 0 0 019 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 04 2 0 0 0
4 6 6 6 1
5 6 112
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Source: Sinaval
30 x
Direct Labor
Source: Sinaval
*Position in Oct/2010 **Merchant Maritime Fund
MMF** disbursements in R$ billion
2 x
BRAZILIAN SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY IN NUMBERS
18
o P‐57 was delivered in 32 months, two months ahead of schedule and under competitive costs as compared to international prices. Reduction in construction time and cost;
o 2 Jack‐ups under construction (P‐59 and P‐60) in São Roque (BA)
o Inclusion of 900 new suppliers per year in Petrobras' Corporate Vendor List;o 13 new shipyards currently under construction, raising the total number to 50*;
o Index of local content rose from 57% in 2003 to 74% in 2010.
Recently built platform:P‐57: BrasFels – RJ
Capacity: 180 thous. boe/dayValue: US$ 1.2 billionDelivered two months ahead of schedule
8 FPSOs (Pre‐salt ‐ P‐66; P‐67; P‐68; P‐69; P‐70; P‐71; P‐72; P‐73 ): Ecovix – Rio Grande (RS)
P‐56 and P‐61: Brasfels (RJ)P‐62: Jurong (ES)
P‐63: QUIP (RS)
FPSO Cidade de Paraty: Brasfels (RJ)FPSO Cidade de São Paulo: Brasfels (RJ)
Under Construction:
Under Construction:
Platforms Procurement
Under Construction:
LOCAL CONTENT
P‐55: Estaleiro Atlântico Sul – PE (hull) /QUIP‐ RS (modules)
P‐58: Estaleiro Rio Grande –RS , UTC Engenharia S/A – RJ e EBE – RJ.
*Source: Sinaval – Executive Summary ‐2011, Jan.
LOCAL CONTENT
19
NEW VESSELS AND PURCHASE OF NEW EQUIPMENTSPetrobras critical resources demand will drive Brazilian and international industry
26 RIGS CONTRACTED, 28 MORE TO BE BUILT BY 2020:26 RIGS CONTRACTED, 28 MORE TO BE BUILT BY 2020:o Until 2013: 13 rigs contracted before 2008 and 1 rig relocated from international operations (1);
+12 new rigs contracted in 2008 , through international bidding;o 2013-2020: Bidding process in progress, to contract 28 rigs to be built in Brazil. EAS won the
bid for the first package – building and freighting 7 rigs in Brazil.
By 2013
79
44
287
15
Current Situation(Dec/10)
Others (Jacket and TLWP)
Production Platforms SS e FPSO
Supply and Special Vessel
Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m
Critical ResourcesDelivery Plan (to be contracted)
Accumulated Value
By 2015 By 2020
34 32 (1) 53 (2)
423 479 568
53 63 84
81 83 85
Production
Platform (FPSO)Drilling RigsSupply Vessel
(1) The rig reallocated from international operations, expire in 2015, so it is not considered in the 2020 accumulated value.
(2) The long term demand (2020) will be adjusted according new evaluation for demand. 20
23LH
Line Handling
112PSV
Platform Supply Vessel
6SV
Supply Vessel
36UT / P
Fast SupplyVessel
27RSV / DSV/
SESV/PLSV/OCV/WSSV(SPECIAL VESSELS)
Type of Ship Qtd
AHTS
Anchor Handling Tug Sypply66
TS
Tug Supply1
OSRV
Oil Recovery16
• 146 ships until 2017 (AHTS, PSV, OSRV)• 40 already bidden
• 60 ships until 2014 (UT, LH, P)• 31 already bidden
Ships Procurement (NEW BUILDING)
SUPPLY AND SPECIAL VESSEL (DEC, 2010)
Fleet in Operation = 287 vessels
21
DRILLING RIGS
Up to 900m (3000´) From 900 to 1500m (5000´)
From 1501 to 2286m (7500´) Over 2286m
Petrobras fleet (units operating by year)
o Approval for procurement/charter of the first round of 7 rigs to beconstructed in Brazil:
o Deliveries beginning in 2015
o Local content specification of 65%
o 14 rigs scheduled for 2011: 12 to operate in a water depth equal orgreater than 2.000 m, with the fleettotaling 60 units;
o Bidding process for 28 units still under way;
o 7 rigs to start‐up in 2012
12
6
16
11
22
CREATED IN 2004 THE PROMEF WAS DEVELOPED WITH 3 ASSUMPTIONS:
3. Offer to shipyards the proper conditions to conquer their competitiveness
2. Achieve the minimum local content (65% ‐ 1st phase, 70% 2nd phase)
1. Build ships in Brazil.
0
5
10
15
20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Suezmax Aframax Panamax Products Suezmax DP Aframax DP Products GLP Bunker
Promef 1 ‐ 23 tankers Promef 2 – 26 tankers
US$ 4.2 Billion
2010‐14
5
10
18
12
4
8 ProductsPromef 2 ‐>To be Hired
Conclusion Schedule
Note: Other investments PromefWaterway - Tietê-Paraná And Dockdues
23
28,000 CBMLPG Carrier
212,000 CBMLPG Carrier
218,000 DWTProduct Carrier DPP
440,000 to 45,000 DWTProduct Carrier DPP
440,000 to 45,000 DWTProduct Carrier CPP
160,000 to 80,000 DWTProduct Carrier DPP
EBN 2Jan 2013 until
Dec 2017
560,000 to 80,000 DWT Product Carrier CPP
37,000 CBMLPG Carrier
6GT < 2,000 tonsBUNKER
230,000 DWTProduct Carrier CPP
230,000 DWTProduct Carrier DPP
340,000 to 45,000 DWTProduct Carrier CPP
EBN 1Jan 2011 until
Dec 2014
340,000 to 45,000 DWTProduct Carrier DPP
DELIVERYNumber of ShipsSIZESHIPTYPE
EBN1 and EBN2: 39 SHIPS
24
1.90.2
0.9
29%
25%
46%
HSE IT R&D
Petrobras Investments in HSE, IT and R&D (2010‐14)
US$ 11.4 Billion
TECHNOLOGY PARTNERSHIPS
Petrobras´s partnerships with 120 universities and research centers has created one of the greatest concentrations of energy research in the world
Expansion of CENPES makes it one of the largest research center in the world
In the Technological Park of the Rio de Janeiro Federal University, four R&D centers for major equipment and services suppliers is currently under construction :
Others companies are schedule to come to Brazil to develop technological centers:
•TenarisConfab
• Vallourec & Mannesman
•Weatherford
•Wellstream
• FMC Technologies
• Usiminas
• Schlumberger
• Baker Hughes
• Cameron• General Electric• Halliburton • IBM• Technip
25
50 THEMATIC NETWORKS WITH 80 INSTITUTIONS50 THEMATIC NETWORKS WITH 80 INSTITUTIONS
ANPANP
TechnicalTechnicalScientificScientific
CommitteeCommitteePartnerPartner
institutioninstitution 11PartnerPartner
institutioninstitution 55
PartnerPartnerinstitutioninstitution 22 PartnerPartner
institutioninstitution 33
PartnerPartnerinstitutioninstitution 44
MCTMCTFINEPFINEPCNPqCNPq
-- PhysicalPhysical and and HumanHuman InfrastructureInfrastructure-- HumanHuman ResourcesResources TrainingTraining-- R & D R & D ProjectsProjects-- TechnologyTechnology ServicesServices
UNIVERSITIESUNIVERSITIES
INCUBATORSINCUBATORS
RESEARCH RESEARCH INSTITUTESINSTITUTES
SUPPLIERSSUPPLIERS
CENPESCENPES(manager)(manager)
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
26
LONG TERM HR CHALLENGES
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016200920082007
146 Supply BoatsNew Stationary Production UnitsPromef IIFreight 19 vesselsRefinery Premium IIRefinery Premium IComperj and RNEST replanningNew projects
Business Plan 2008 – 201228 Drilling Rigs
212,638New Demands
BP 2010-14
78,402Qualified
Professionals
27
There are tremendous opportunities for oil and gas equipment suppliers and
service companies in Brazil
Thank you.