Upload
hunter-thrapp
View
218
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
PRESENTED BY IN PARTNERSHIP WITH
Industry Macro Trends
Commercial OE
• New AT/BA Aircraft OEMs
• Many New Platform/Upgrade Initiatives
Commercial Aftermarket
• Flight Hours Growing
• Changing Operator Business Practices
• Aircraft Demographics Changing
Defense & Space
• Traditional ‘Big Program Spending’ Declines
• Needs Shifting From Conventional to “Hybrid”
Industry Implications
• Emergence of More Customer-Competitor Hybrids
• Traditional Customers Evolving
• Parts Supply/Availability Must Meet Recovering Demand
• Operators Value Safety & Efficiency Improvements
• Growth of Surplus Asset Channels
• Must Innovate Affordably In “Pay To Play” R&D Model
• Leverage Commercial Solutions in D&S Sector
• Expansion of New Spaces (Asymmetric Warfare, UAS)
Changing Market Landscapes
Industry Outlook
Total Flight Hours Growth
Double-digit growth
New AT&R Aircraft Deliveries
• Following a 2-3 year downturn, Air Transport volumes resume growth in 2011
The AT&R OEM Evolution
ConsolidationConsolidationNon-commercially
viable entities were absorbed or disappeared
GlobalizationGlobalization Players entering
with captive markets
Development and Development and ProliferationProliferation
Commercial-based and state-sponsored entities
flourished - many national champions & a regulated airline industry supported
demand
Consolidation (?)Consolidation (?) and The and The New World OrderNew World Order
Winners will emerge, likely tied to technology, growing economies and government
19501950 19801980 20002000 20202020 20402040
Five-Year Purchase Plans for New Business Jets
• 2010 purchase plans at 30%• Operators cautious about slow pace of economic recovery
Business Jet Purchase Expectations by Region
• Significant global demand still present – Asia, Middle East/Africa, Europe more cautious off record 2009 plans
Regional Demand for New B&GA Jets in Next 5 Years
• International share of demand 42%
B&GA Outlook Summary
• Delivery down cycle continues in 2010, 2011 marks bottom of cycle:– Less volatility in OEM rates, but order rates remain soft– Large cabin class aircraft faring better
• Some recovery in purchasing in 2011:– Economic growth expectations are positive but cautious– especially in emerging regions– Projected dollar depreciation will have positive impact on International sales– Recovery in new aircraft deliveries will begin in late 2011 or 2012, orders a year earlier
• Pipeline of new models still important for longer-term growth
• Recovery progressing in fleet utilization, slower improvement in used aircraft
Key Industry Implications
• A number of business models will be challenged … must adapt
• Marketing analytics will be more important … place the right bets
• Supply base performance expectations will heighten• Technology cycles will be shorter, requiring nimble
business/engineering/supply chain• Technology leadership will be difficult due to lack of
science/math orientation