Technical Assistance from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

Presented by:Nathaniel von Einsiedel

Architect/ Urban Planner

Background of Dream Plan

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Providing an input to SONA (State of the Nation Address) Formulating coordinated transport roadmap for NEDA

Traffic congestion everywhere throughout the day

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0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

02 07 13 19 24

% o

f Dai

ly T

raffi

c

Direction1Direction 22-way

Transport Cost of Metro Manila Congestion USD54 million/day in 2012

≈ USD4/person/day ≈ USD500/household/month

USD134 million/day in 2030 ( x 2.5)

Hourly Traffic Distribution: Insignificant AM/PM Peak Congestion Scenes

How can the situation be improved?

Traffic congestion is not the core issue

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No. of households living in: High risk areas: 0.5 million Moderate risk areas: 0.7 million No. of ISFs in priority (8) waterways; 19,440

Hazard risk areas

LegendHigh riskModerate riskLow risk Priority waterways

Earthquake Flood Landslide

How can they be protected? Where can they be relocated?

Hazard risks threaten large numberｓ of households

Big challenge: Reorganization of urban land use

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Distribution of Informal Settlers Affordable housing needs (Metro Manila, 2010) Backlog: 500,000 households Resettlement: 560,000 households

Where can they find sites for affordable housing that are free from hazard risks?

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Growing pressures and threats to sustainable development

Population

5 Large Urban Areas Tokyo: 35 million

Jakarta: 28 million

Seoul: 26 million

Shanghai: 25 million

Karachi: 24 million29.4

13.9

8.9

23.0

35.6

11.9

9.1

34.0

Metro Manila

Mega Manila

Tokyo 23 Wards

Tokyo Metropolitan Region

Development trends Further population increase beyond 2030 Densification of urban areas Economic growth

External impacts Globalization Competition among cities in the region

Opportunities Strong private sector interest in

infrastructure investment Coordinated policy intervention Increasing availability of smart

technologies for urban and transport management

Metro Manila has been growing into Mega Manila

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Do we still have opportunities for sustainable growth?

How can transport contribute to sustainable urban development?

What do we have to think in urban transport planning?

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Sectoral Integration (transport, land use, and environment) Traffic congestion Hazard risks Affordable housing, slum/squatter areas

They are closely interrelated!

Need for integrated approach

Regional Integration Metro Manila’s problems can no longer be solved within Metro Manila. Adjoining provinces cannot grow without Metro Manila.

Institutional integration Coordination Implementation

Transport

Land use Environment

1.8%2.4%

3.1%

1.5%

2.0%

81

42 31 51 41

18

41

6331 28

1

17

6

17 32

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Metro Manila

Region III Region IV-A Visayas Mindanao

Popuation (000)

GRDP (Php billion)

6.3%

4.6%

6.1%2.1% 2.6%

Greater Metro Manila (GCR) is the engine of growth

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100km

50km

Metro Manila

Region III

Region IV-A

AuroraNueva EcijaTarlac

Pampanga

Bulacan

Rizal

Cavite Laguna

Batangas

Population growth rate (%/year)

GRDP by sector; growth rate (%/year), sector share (%)

(1)(2)(3)

Growth rate of population & GRDP is between 2000 and 2010.

Spatial hierarchy GCR: MManila, Region III, Region IV-A Mega Manila: MManila, Bulacan, Rizal,

Laguna, Cavite Metro Manila : 16 cities, 1 municipality

Metro Manila shares 36% of GDP GCR shares 62% of GDP (Population: 37%)

Metro Manila

Region III Region IV

Greater Capital Region (GCR)

Mega Manila

50km

100km

Metro Manila

Transform spatial structure from monocentric to polycentric form

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Future

San Fernando

Baler

Palayan

Cabanatuan

Gapan

Malolos

San PabloTanauan

Tagaytay

Dasmarinas

Bacoor

Calamba

Sta. Rosa

Antipolo

San Jose Del MonteMeycauayan

Imus

Cabuyao

Baliuag

Sta Cruz

Sta.Maria

Binangonan

Cainta

RodriguezSan Mateo

Taytay

Gen. Trias

BinanSan Pedro

Batangas

Tarlac

Angels

Lucena

Lipa

Trece Martires

Regional Center Subregional CenterUrban CenterCity Population

Today

MetropolisProvincial CapitalUrban CenterCity Population Batangas

Olongapo

Balanga

Tarlac

Mabalacat

San Fernando

Baler

Palayan

Malolos

Lucena

Sta Cruz

San Pabro

Gen. Trias

Dasmarinas

ImusBacoor

Calamba

CabuyaoSta. Rosa

Antipolo

San Jose Del MonteSta. Maria

Balanga

BinanSan Pedro

Binangonan

CaintaTaytay

RodriguezSan Mateo

Cabanatuan

Lipa

Olongapo

Mabalacat

Lubao

Clark

Subic

Metro Manila

Clark

Subic

Metro Manila

Disperse gateway port function

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Gateway Seaports

MM21 Yokohama Waterfront

Regenerate Manila Port into a high value-added waterfront area with diversified functions

Port Area Capacity (TEU) MICT (ICTSI) 1,500,000South (ATI) 850,000Subic 600,000Batangas 400,000

Shift cargo-handling function of Metro Manila to Subic and Batangasby controlling future expansion of Manila ports and providing incentives to use Subic and Batangas ports

Sangley (option)

NAIA

SLEx

LRT1

AER/Commuter

MRT3EDSASubway

C5

Strengthen gateway airport: A globally competitive international gateway airport is a critical driving force for future development of Metro Manila and the Philippines

Clark Airport(CIA)

NAIANew NAIA(option)

100km

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Gateway Airports

Twin airport system for the region

Development of New NAIA and possible closure of existing NAIA and conversion into a new CBD

Line1 Extension

Urban railExpressway

Bay Bridge, a new icon for Metro Manila

Note: Alternative locations for New NAIA are being studied.

Alternative sites for new NAIA are being studied.

Redefine spatial structure by shifting from radial/circumferential to ladder form

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1977 Metro Plan Encourage voluntary resettlement of people

from city center to suburban areas with improved living environment

Retrofit city center areas Recover green spaces and hazard risk free areas Prepare to accommodate increasing population

proactively

Conventional ProposedRoad network pattern

SeaMountain

Lake

Urban area expansion

Urban area expansion

120 5 10 20km

Development of north-south transport backbone is the foundation for spatial reorganization and integrationDPWH’s High Standard Highway Network

Malolos San Jose Del Monte

Dasmarinas

Calamba

NS CommuterMain Line- Existing line- Extension/new line- SubwaySecondary Line

North-South Commuter Rail and EDSA Subway

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15

Tokyu New Town along Tokyu Suburban Rail Line

Integrated development (TOD at regional scale) is key for success: Suburban rail + new town (experiences of Japan)

Concept for new towns Integrated with NSCR/EDSA Subway Large-scale and comprehensive

(residential, commercial, industrial, cultural, etc.)

Providing affordable housing (Republic Act. 7279)

Integrated with local communities Development on PPP

Estimated demand for new towns1–2 million households: 5-10 new towns

Tokyu Line

Other Lines

River

10km

20km

30km

Tokyo

• Location: 20–30 km from Tokyo

• Area: 5,000 ha• Population: 600,000

(2013)

No traffic congestion No households living in high hazard risk areas No barrier for seamless mobility No excessive transport cost burden for low-income groups No air pollution

5 NOs for Mega Manila towards Dream Plan

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Formulating a transport plan for Metro Manila was not a difficult task, because …

Rich database for transport planning for Metro Manila

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Studies, plans

Experiences successes failures public and private sector

Institutional memory government local brains

1945 Major Thoroughfare Plan

1973 UTSMMA (comprehensive urban transport masterplan)

1977 METROPLAN (land use cum transport strategy)

1981 MMUTIP (bus amalgamation project)

1983 MMUTSTRAP (urban transport strategy study)

1984 JUMSUT (bus/jeepney rerouting along LRT1 and TOD)

1996 MMUTIS (comprehensive urban transport masterplan)

2013 Metro Manila Transport RoadmapStudy

Major Transportation Studies Conducted in Metro Manila

5 Major Components of Dream Plan (mostly planned but unimplemented)

At-grade roads (urban roads)

Expressways (intercity and urban)

Urban/Suburban rails

Bus/Jeepneys

Traffic management

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Major Roads/Expressways NetworkUrban/Suburban Rails Network

LegendNS CommuterMain Line- Existing Line- Extension/New Line- New Main Line(UG)

Secondary Line

LegendMain Urban Roads- Upgrade- New links

Expressways- Existing- New links

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Hierarchical and integrated urban mass transit network is a must!

Hierarchical railway network PNR/AER (suburban/urban backbone) Primary urban Secondary urban

Impact of integration (common fare) Ridership increase: +20% Bus/jeepney ridership increase: + 2% Impact on road traffic: - 4%

Expected modal share in 2030 (MManila) Railway: 41% Bus/Jeepney: 33% Car: 26%

Note: excluding walk trips

(person trip-km)

Distribution of Mass Transit Traffic Demand (Dream Plan, 2030) Line 1, 2 and 3 were failure?

Demand for mass transit

2012 2030 ‘30/’12

Ridership(mil./day)

Metro Manila 1.5 7.4 4.9BRLC 0 2.1 -Total 1.5 9.1 6.1

Cross-section pax no./day

100,000200,000300,000

North-South Commuter Rail

Line 3

Line 1

Line 2

MRT 7

Mega ManilaSubway

North-South Commuter Rail

Mega Manila Subway

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Urban expressway system is also a must for Metro Manila

Role of urban expressways Attract long-trip vehicle traffic from at-

grade urban roads Provide congestion-free fast travel to

those willing to pay for such service Strengthen network resilience

Should be integrated in terms of: Physical (between expressways, and with

urban roads) Toll system Operation and management

Impact on road traffic 20% of pcu-km of total road traffic

Distribution of Expressway Traffic Demand(Dream Plan, 2030)

Cross-section traffic demand

SLEX

30,000 pcu/day60,000 pcu/day

Volume/Capacity RatioV/C > 1.50V/C = 0.90 – 1.50V/C = 0.75 – 0.90V/C = 0.50 – 0.75V/C < 0.50

Should be grade-separated in city center

Modernize road-based public transport

Bus modernization Comprehensive approach is necessary to

modernize bus system and services Bus fleet, bus terminals, route planning, fare

setting and collection are all interrelated. Need for a participatory study

Jeepney modernization Improvement of vehicles (safety, air pollution) Improvement of operation and management Shift to low emission vehicles (LEVs)

Bus/jeepney support Infrastructure: terminals, interchange facilities Route rationalization Subsidy

Bus exclusive lane / BRT

Modern bus and facilities

Improvement of jeepney and bus terminals

Need for a comprehensive road-based public transport study

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Articulated bus

Electric minibus

Roads and railways will be insufficient in solving traffic congestion. 71% of trips today and 30% in 2030 will still rely on buses and jeepneys.

Opportunities for improved traffic management decline due to high cost of smart technologies

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Capacity building:enforcement and education

Infrastructure/facilities:signaling, intersection improvement, flyovers, parking, IT, others

Focus on demand management, car use restraint, pedestrian priority

Introduction of smart technologies

Component of intelligent transport system (example)

Incident Detection Electronic Road Pricing

Road Maintenance Scheduling & Monitoring

Bus Scheduling Assistance

Transit Priority

Travel Time Prediction

Intelligent Parking

Signal Control Systems

Need for a comprehensive traffic management study

Traffic management is the most fundamental action to maximizecapacities and use of available infrastructure in the most efficient andeffective manner.

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Lessons from Metro Manila’s own experiences

Manila’s Transportation in 1920s–30s Population: approximately 300,000 in 1920–30 Well-planned urban area Extensive tranvia network (track length): ~85 km Tranvia covered about 40% of total demand Strategic, integrated development by private

sector: suburban line + housing development + power supply

Diversified urban transport modes Good traffic management

Manila in 1908

Thank you for your attention.

Dreams could still come true …