Presented by In-Woo Lee, Agricultural Economist, FFTC at the National Pingtong University, Taiwan

1

Presented by In-Woo Lee, Agricultural Economist, FFTCat the National Pingtong University, Taiwan

On November 22, 2006

Looking at Rural Asia and Its Future Roles and Directions

A Korean Agricultural Economist’s View

2

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation

I Introduction

II Current Situation of Asian Agriculture

III Conditions for Future Development

Ⅳ New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia

Ⅴ Role of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”

FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC

3

I . IntroductionI . Introduction

I IntroductionIntroduction

-

-

-

Greetings and Introduction

Aim of presentation

To introduce FFTC activities toward helping students understand the commitment of the Taiwan Gov. to rural Asia

To explain my role in order to inspire and motivate the students to broaden their own horizons for the future

Focus of presentation

Describe the current situation of Asian agriculture in terms of its structure and performances

Show a logical path of future rural Asia and a framework for strategic planning

Explain engines for sustainable growth in rural Asia

FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC

4

II. Current Situation of Asian AgricultureII. Current Situation of Asian Agriculture

I Introduction






5


Framework of Agriculture and Its PerformancesFramework of Agriculture and Its Performances

•Agricultural Production Providing food, fiber, industrial resources, Conservation of natural resources, etc.

•Rural Economy Farmer’s household economy Regional economy Taxation

•Social Community Social institution Cultural identity Balancing national development

•Agricultural Production Providing food, fiber, industrial resources, Conservation of natural resources, etc.

•Rural Economy Farmer’s household economy Regional economy Taxation

•Social Community Social institution Cultural identity Balancing national development

Performances of Agricultural ProductionPerformances of Agricultural ProductionPerformances of Agricultural ProductionPerformances of Agricultural Production


MarketMarket PolicyPolicyTechnologyTechnology

CapitalInvestment

CapitalInvestment

AgriculturalPopulation

AgriculturalPopulation

CultivatedLand

CultivatedLand

6


Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Cultivated Land (I)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Cultivated Land (I)

• Cultivated lands in each country show stable tendency except for China

• China has the largest cultivated land in the world

• Even so, it has continuously increased its cultivated land since 1998

• Its tremendous impacts on agricultural markets have been felt all over the world, especially in Asia

- Consumption pattern - Changes in supply & demand - Influence over Asian and global markets

• Cultivated lands in each country show stable tendency except for China

• China has the largest cultivated land in the world

• Even so, it has continuously increased its cultivated land since 1998

• Its tremendous impacts on agricultural markets have been felt all over the world, especially in Asia

- Consumption pattern - Changes in supply & demand - Influence over Asian and global markets

Cultivated Lands of Asian CountriesCultivated Lands of Asian CountriesCultivated Lands of Asian CountriesCultivated Lands of Asian Countries


Graph 2- 1. Cultivated Land Area of Nine SelectedAsian Countries (Includes China)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

1,000ha

China Indonesia J apan Korea Malaysia

Philippines Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam

Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Divis ion 2006 | 19 November 2006. FFTC, Major Agricultural Statistics in the Asian and Pacific Region.

7


Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Cultivated Land (II)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Cultivated Land (II)

• Details of the past 10 years show that China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam have shown increases in cultivated land

• Meanwhile, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand have shown considerable decreases in this aspect

• Details of the past 10 years show that China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam have shown increases in cultivated land

• Meanwhile, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand have shown considerable decreases in this aspect

Detailed Changes in Cultivated LandsDetailed Changes in Cultivated LandsDetailed Changes in Cultivated LandsDetailed Changes in Cultivated Lands


Graph 2- 2. Cultivated Land Area of Eight SelectedAsian Countries (Excludes China)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

1,000ha

Indonesia J apan Korea Malaysia



8


Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Agri. Pop. (I)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Agri. Pop. (I)

• Agricultural populations have shown a similar pattern with that of cultivated lands.

• Agricultural population in China has continuously increased since the 1960s

• Agricultural populations have shown a similar pattern with that of cultivated lands.

• Agricultural population in China has continuously increased since the 1960s

Agricultural Population in Asian CountriesAgricultural Population in Asian CountriesAgricultural Population in Asian CountriesAgricultural Population in Asian Countries


Graph 2- 3. Agricultural Population in Nine SelectedAsian Countries (Includes China)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Year

1,000




9


Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Agri. Pop. (II)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Agri. Pop. (II)

• China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam have shown steady increases in agricultural populations.

• On the contrary, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan have recorded decreases in agricultural populations.

• China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam have shown steady increases in agricultural populations.

• On the contrary, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan have recorded decreases in agricultural populations.

Agricultural Population by CountriesAgricultural Population by CountriesAgricultural Population by CountriesAgricultural Population by Countries


Graph 2- 4. Agricultural Population in Eight SelectedAsian Countries (Excludes China)

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000

Year

1,000

Indonesia J apan Korea Malaysia



10


Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Capital (I)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Capital (I)

• The number of tractors, as an index of agricultural mechanization and capital investment in agriculture,

indicates that selected Asian countries have enhanced their productivity through farm mechanization since the 1970s

- Japan already had reached its peak in the early 1990s while other countries have shown comparatively low levels in the introduction of tractors in their agricultures

- China does not show any striking increasing rates compared to its own scale of cultivated land

• The number of tractors, as an index of agricultural mechanization and capital investment in agriculture,

indicates that selected Asian countries have enhanced their productivity through farm mechanization since the 1970s

- Japan already had reached its peak in the early 1990s while other countries have shown comparatively low levels in the introduction of tractors in their agricultures

- China does not show any striking increasing rates compared to its own scale of cultivated land

Number of Tractors in Asian CountriesNumber of Tractors in Asian CountriesNumber of Tractors in Asian CountriesNumber of Tractors in Asian Countries


Graph 2- 5. Number of Tractors in Nine Selected AsianCountries (Includes China and Japan)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Year

number




11


Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Capital (II)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Capital (II)

• Thailand, Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia have shown rapid increase rates in the number of tractors since the late 1980s

• It means Asian agriculture has come to enter into a capital-intensive farming stage

• Its unexpected results, farmers experienced financial bankruptcy and economic hardship during the 1997 Asian financial crisis and pushed farmers into a critical point, especially in Thailand, Korea and Indonesia

• Malaysia, Taiwan and Philippines have shown comparatively low rates of increase in the number of tractors

• Thailand, Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia have shown rapid increase rates in the number of tractors since the late 1980s

• It means Asian agriculture has come to enter into a capital-intensive farming stage

• Its unexpected results, farmers experienced financial bankruptcy and economic hardship during the 1997 Asian financial crisis and pushed farmers into a critical point, especially in Thailand, Korea and Indonesia

• Malaysia, Taiwan and Philippines have shown comparatively low rates of increase in the number of tractors

Number of Tractors by CountriesNumber of Tractors by CountriesNumber of Tractors by CountriesNumber of Tractors by Countries


Graph 2- 6. Number of Tractors in Seven SelectedAsian Countries (Excludes China and Japan)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Year

number

Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam


12

III . Conditions for Future DevelopmentIII . Conditions for Future Development

I Introduction






13

III. Conditions for Future DevelopmentIII. Conditions for Future Development

Agricultural Production in Asian CountriesAgricultural Production in Asian Countries

• Since 1961, most Asian countries have shown continuous increases in agricultural production except for Japan

• Japan already had entered a stagnant increase rate in agricultural production since the 1970s. Taiwan and Korea has followed the decreasing trend

• In spite of farmers’ economic hardship, agricultural production in Asian countries has increased. Every country faces a critical point to be overcome amid rapid globalization of agricultural market

• Since 1961, most Asian countries have shown continuous increases in agricultural production except for Japan

• Japan already had entered a stagnant increase rate in agricultural production since the 1970s. Taiwan and Korea has followed the decreasing trend

• In spite of farmers’ economic hardship, agricultural production in Asian countries has increased. Every country faces a critical point to be overcome amid rapid globalization of agricultural market

Indices of Agricultural ProductionIndices of Agricultural ProductionIndices of Agricultural ProductionIndices of Agricultural Production


Graph 3- 1. Indices of Agricultural Production in NineSelected Asian Countries (1961- 2005)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Year

100=average of1999- 2001



Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Divis ion 2006 | 19 November 2006. FFTC, Major Agricultural Statistics in the Asian and Pacific

14


Agri. Economist’s role: How to Contribute to Future DevelopmentAgri. Economist’s role: How to Contribute to Future Development

• Assess your country’s status in the context of its agricultural development, and

• Prepare a strategic plan for future agricultural development.

• For Agricultural Economist, change is regarded as a move to another balancing point

• How to move the current balancing point to a desirable balancing point

• What variables should you control to achieve the balance?

• Assess your country’s status in the context of its agricultural development, and

• Prepare a strategic plan for future agricultural development.

• For Agricultural Economist, change is regarded as a move to another balancing point

• How to move the current balancing point to a desirable balancing point

• What variables should you control to achieve the balance?

Assessment and PreparationAssessment and PreparationAssessment and PreparationAssessment and Preparation


Upward Development

Status QuoDevelopme

nt

DownwardDevelopmen

t

Goals&

Targets

Agriculture

Past Present

Target Year

External Conditions

Internal Conditions

Figure 3-1. Logical Development Path of Agriculture

15


Key Words to a Strategic Planning for Future DevelopmentKey Words to a Strategic Planning for Future Development

Key Words and ConstraintsKey Words and ConstraintsKey Words and ConstraintsKey Words and Constraints


Goals & Targets

- Industrial, Rural Economics, Social Community

- Food Security, Food Safety, Sustainable Growth

External Conditions

- Markets, Technologies, Policies

Internal Conditions

- Arable Land, Agri. Population, Capital Investment

Policy Measures

- Individual, Organizational, Legal and Institutional

Constraints

- Continuous Growth of Agriculture since WWII

- Widening Gap b/w Farmers

Upward Development

Status QuoDevelopme

nt

DownwardDevelopmen

t

Goals&

Targets

Agriculture

Past Present

Target Year

External Conditions

Internal Conditions

16

Ⅳ. New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural AsiaⅣ. New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia

I Introduction






17


Past and Present Engines for DevelopmentPast and Present Engines for Development


Past

- Designed to accumulate more input resources to be utilized in the agricultural field

- More production promises more income, finally focusing on input

Present

- Conditions inside and outside agriculture have changed

- More precise and highly-developed engines are needed, focusing on reallocating resources

US and EU: renovation of old rural development programs

- reallocating the combination of agricultural production factors

- Externally improve farmers’ market access capacities thru trade negotiations, WTO, FTA

- Internally promote volunteer groups to commit to the revitalization of rural economies

18


Examples of New Engines in Asian CountriesExamples of New Engines in Asian Countries


Japan

- JA-Jenzhu promotes a social movement that links “People’s Diet and Agriculture”

Korea

- NACF has launched the “Caring for Rural Community” movement since 2005

Taiwan

- Taiwanese government has started the “New Agriculture Movement”

Common Interest in these countries

- Each of them envisions that dietary connection, mutual coexistence, and young farmers will serve as the new engine for future agricultural development in each country

19

V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”

I Introduction






20


Mission of FFTC/ASPACMission of FFTC/ASPAC

•Established in 1970 as an international information center in the Asian and Pacific Region

•Mission Collect and disseminate technical information on agricultural production, in order to achieve increased output and higher incomes for small-scale farmers in the region

•Organizational Structure - Executive Board Meeting - Working Group Meeting - Technical Advisory Committee - Technical Staff and - International Cosponsor Institutions

•Established in 1970 as an international information center in the Asian and Pacific Region

•Mission Collect and disseminate technical information on agricultural production, in order to achieve increased output and higher incomes for small-scale farmers in the region

•Organizational Structure - Executive Board Meeting - Working Group Meeting - Technical Advisory Committee - Technical Staff and - International Cosponsor Institutions



21


Major Activities of FFTC/ASPACMajor Activities of FFTC/ASPAC

Regional Field Surveys For 35 years, 21 surveys•Seminars and Workshops 185 Seminars and Workshops•Training Courses 46 Training Courses•Field Demonstration Projects 9 Field Demonstrations•Publications 549 Extension Bulletins, 165 Technical Bulletins, 62 Books, 145 Issues of Newsletter 34 Annual Reports, 121 Practical Technology Leaflets, etc.•Websites and Database•Strengthen Regional Agri. Cooperation

Regional Field Surveys For 35 years, 21 surveys•Seminars and Workshops 185 Seminars and Workshops•Training Courses 46 Training Courses•Field Demonstration Projects 9 Field Demonstrations•Publications 549 Extension Bulletins, 165 Technical Bulletins, 62 Books, 145 Issues of Newsletter 34 Annual Reports, 121 Practical Technology Leaflets, etc.•Websites and Database•Strengthen Regional Agri. Cooperation

Major Activities of FFTC/ASPACMajor Activities of FFTC/ASPACMajor Activities of FFTC/ASPACMajor Activities of FFTC/ASPAC


22


Future Directions: FFTC Strategic Plan for 2007-2011Future Directions: FFTC Strategic Plan for 2007-2011


TARGETED TOPICS

TARGETED TECHNOLOGY

TECHNOLOGIES FOR COLLECTION AND

TRANSFEREnhanced Information and Technology Collection and Dissemination/Transfer

STRATEGIC MISSION

Increased Income andImproved Livelihood of Small-scale Farmers

Improved Food Safety

Enhancement ofEnvironment-Friendly Technology

Sustainable Use ofNatural Resources

OPERATIONAL STRATEGY FFTC WORK PROGRAM 2007-2011

- Status and roles of agriculture and needs of farmers have changed

-Review existing strategic plan

- Outlining four strategic missions and plan for 2007-2011

23

Thank you for your attention!

謝謝您 !


Documents

Presented by In-Woo Lee, Agricultural Economist, FFTC at the National Pingtong University, Taiwan