Presentation to Pre-Sessional Consultations on the IPCC TAR Milan, Italy

27-28 November 2003

BRIAN CHALLENGER

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

Increasing scientific evidence points to evidence of changing climate and related impacts. These correspond to changes identified in the TAR for future climate change.

This most visibly seen in extreme weather events but also in less dramatic longer term trends.

In many instances altered weather patterns provide signals that global climate change is already having impacts.

Nature of impacts demonstrated by WMO estimate of doubling of the number of

hydro meteorological disasters in the last decade. Recent extreme events include:

• European summer heat wave

• Drought in the Horn of Africa and Southern Africa affecting millions of persons

• Hurricane Isabel in the Atlantic in September 2003

Antigua and Barbuda “signals” include:• below average rainfall from 2000 (continuing earlier trends)• Increased number and intensity of heavy rain events

* Increased minimum temperatures (daily and seasonal) * Heightened impact of El Nino event

Existing impacts on tourism sector, foreign exchange, insurance and employment.

Adaptation identified in IPCC TAR as a Central element of the vulnerability and impact assessment process. However adaptation to Climate change remains largely theoretical involving development of conceptual frameworks and

methodologies.

Practical effects: Stage l and stage ll Adaptation- emphasis on studies. Need to move towards dynamic linkage between theoretical focus and actions required to deal with changing climate now and in the future.

Actions taken now will be affected by future changes in climate and will themselves affect ability to adapt. Therefore need for adaptive actions at early juncture.

Assessment of vulnerability to climate change starts with understanding of present vulnerabilities. A similar practical approach required for adaptation.

Development of adaptation responses must also be based on an understanding ofadaptations to existing climate, particularly adaptation to extreme events. Adaptation cannot realistically be seen as a future action if sustainable development is to be achieved.

Essential elements of adaptation are:

• Scientific knowledge and

understanding

• Awareness of critical issues

• Capacity to adapt

These elements allow for integration of adaptive measures into ongoing and planned activity.

Specific areas already relevant to climate change adaptation are:

* Coastal zone management and protection

* Disaster response

* Development control

Methodological tools and technology already available to enable adaptation in these areas.

Emphasis to date has been on seeking integration of climate change into

development planning in SIDS.

Limited success to date not surprising given limited extent of economic Planning in SIDS. Emphasis should include

integration of climate change into development control which generally a more well established process.

Environmental Impact Assessment: another tool providing opportunity for incorporating climate change into development control and planning process.

Need to make available financial resources for climate change adaptation for projects in these sectors that:

(1) Incorporate existing knowledge of climate change

(2) Aim to reduce vulnerability to present and future climate variability

(3) Meet other sustainable development criteria

Conclusion:

• Climate change impacts are already being experienced in varying locations: in many instances through extreme events

• Action needed now to incorporate adaptation into development control and planning process using existing knowledge and tools

Conclusion continued..

Conclusion continued:

• Development community should recognize need to move beyond academic studies and towards supporting existing disaster response, coastal zone, and development control initiatives that incorporate best practices and available information relating to climate change vulnerability and adaptation.