Presentation to: Chief Elected Officials Executive Committee Meeting Key Indicators and Workforce Development Trends February 11, 2011

Presentation to:

Chief Elected Officials Executive Committee Meeting

Key Indicators and Workforce Development TrendsFebruary 11, 2011

Project Overview

1. Employment and Industry Trends• What industries are emerging from recession?

2. Demographic Trends• What populations might have trouble entering the

workforce?

3. Characteristics of Unemployed• How is the last recession different from the past?

4. Job Postings and Job Seekers• Is there a mismatch between available skills and jobs?

Objective 1

• Reviewed overall employment trends for South Central region

• Compared business mix of South Central to the state

• Analyzed industry trends between 2005 and 2009

• Identified potential growth industries

Education & Healthcare industries post strong job growth for past five

years

Hospitals

Industries in below quadrant- Manufacturing: Chemical; primary metal; fabricated metal; computer & electronic; and transportation equip.; transit & ground transportation; and insurance carriers and related activities

Analysis of Industries

• Employer change, 2001-2009• Job change, 2001-2009• Average wages and total wages by industry• Industry location quotients, 2005-2009• Segmentation analysis• Competitive share

Potential Industry Growth Areas• Ambulatory Health Care Services• Chemical Manufacturing• Computer & Electronic Products Manufacturing• Educational Services • Electrical Equipment & Appliance Manufacturing• Hospitals• Miscellaneous Manufacturing (Medical Devices)• Nursing and Residential Care • Social Assistance• Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

Objective 2 Goals

• Gathered and analyzed demographic information on municipalities in South Central WIA

• Analyzed census data for larger municipalities in the region, with populations greater than 20,000

• Identified towns most affected by residents with special needs

Residents 55-74 show population growth from 2000 to 2010 and projected growth from 2010 to

2015

Source: Applied Geographic Solutions/CERC DataFinder

By 2015, the region’s Asian, African American, and Multiracial populations are

projected to have highest growthPopulation Change over time

2000 2010 2015 2000-10 2010-15 2000-15

Caucasian 566,000 566,838 561,738 838 (5,100) (4,262)

African Am. 77,652 85,933 91,907 8,281 5,974 14,255

Asian 17,459 27,551 33,835 10,092 6,284 16,376

Am. Indian/ Native Alaskan

1,524 1,020 764 (504) (256) (760)

Other and Multiracial

39,120 47,522 52,746 8,402 5,224 13,626

Total 701,755 728,864 740,990 27,109 12,126 39,235


The Hispanic population is projected to grow by 4 percentage points in the region

between 2000 and 2015


Educational attainment among South Central residents will increaseHighest Level of Educational attainment for South Central region

Less than 9th grade

9th to 12th grade, no diploma

High school

graduate

Associate degree

Bachelor’s degree

Graduate degree

2000 4.2% 10.0% 29.7% 6.3% 17.0% 14.0%

2010 3.7% 6.5% 29.9% 7.3% 18.7% 16.2%

2015 3.2% 5.2% 29.9% 7.8% 19.5% 17.2%


11.5% of the South Central WIA population* is foreign born

• 62,547 people are foreign born, representing 11.5% of the population

• 38% are from Latin America (23,639)• 28% from Asia (17,295)• 25% from Europe (15,722)

*Data for the following towns only: Branford, East Haven, Guilford, Hamden, Meriden, Middletown, Milford, New Haven, North Haven, Wallingford, and West Haven.

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey; CERC Calculations

Populations with Special Needs

• Between 2008 and 2009, South Central WIA TANF recipients decreased by 527. The 8,454 recipients represent 22% of the state total.

• DDS has 3,226 clients residing in the South Central WIA, representing 21% of the state’s client population

• The South Central WIA adult probationer population increased by 365 between 2005 and 2010 to 11,785, making it the state’s second highest among the five workforce investment areas.

Source: CT DOL; CERC Calculations

73% of all graduates in 2008 attended college

• In 2008, the South Central WIA had 8,895 students graduate– 4,526 attended 4-year college (51%)– 1,944 attended 2-year college (22%) – 1,437 joined the workforce (16%)– 360 pursued other education (4%)– 351 were unknown (4%)– 162 joined the military (2%)– 115 were unemployed (1%)

Source: CT Department of Education

5 districts with 30% or more of students scoring at or below basic proficiency in Math

• Districts with 30% or more of students scoring at or below a basic proficiency level on the 10th grade CAPT tests (2009-2010):

Math• Hamden (32%), Middletown (34%), West Haven (41%),

Meriden (43%), and New Haven (51%)Reading• Meriden (32%), New Haven (41%)Science• Meriden (38%), Common Ground (38%), New Haven (47%)Writing• No district had more than 30%

Source: CT Department of Education

Incarcerated Population (CT)Prison population the first week of January 2011: 17,818

• 13,578 were sentenced• 3,694 accused but unsentenced• 335 special parole• 139 federal/other

Juvenile offenders (17-years or younger)• Unique juveniles referred to court in 2009

• Delinquency - 6,827• Families with Service Needs (FWSN) - 2,161

• In 2009, 1,741 admitted to Bridgeport, Hartford or New Haven Detention Centers (down from 2,961 in 2006)

• Average stay in 2009 was 14.4 days• 203 admitted to CT Juvenile Training School (CJTS) (175 unique individuals)

FWSN – a juvenile who is charged with an offense that would not be considered a crime if he/she were an adult (e.g. truancy, beyond parental control)

Source: Office of Policy and Management

Objective 3 Goals

• Reviewed overall unemployment figures for the state and region

• Analyzed from which industries the unemployment claimants hail

• Reviewed trends in unemployment data and demographic data on first-time claimants

• Analyzed unemployment rates by town

Average number of weeks paid unemployment for the South Central region mirrors that of the state


Top 10 industries with largest unemployment claimants in 2009

Connecticut

Industry (NAICS Code) # Claimants

Administrative and support activities (561) 31,842

Specialty trade construction (238) 29,063

Fabricated metal product manufact. (332) 16,625

Professional and technical services (541) 16,302

Food and drink places (722) 14,543

Transportation equipmt. manufact. (336) 11,788

Educational services (611) 8,683

Merchant wholesalers, durable goods (423) 7,756

Construction of buildings (236) 7,514

Machinery manufact. (333) 7,294

Total 151,410

South Central WIA

Industry (NAICS Code) # Claimants

Specialty trade construction (238) 6,206

Administrative and support activities (561) 6,125

Food and drink places (722) 3,151

Professional and technical services (541) 3,026

Transportation equipmt. manufact. (336) 2,655

Fabricated metal product manufact. (332) 2,459

Educational services (611) 2,163

Merchant wholesalers, durable goods (423) 1,705

Construction of buildings (236) 1,486

Ambulatory health care services (621) 1,432

Total 30,408


Industries with average unemployment greater than 26 weeks

in 2009Connecticut South Central WIA

Industry Avg wks paid

Industry Avg wks paid

Telecommunications 36.7 Telecommunications 56.5

Monetary authorities - central bank 30.2 Apparel manufact.33.2

Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets 26.2 Leather and allied product manufact.31.8

Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles28.3

Textile Mills27.8

Museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks27.3

ISPs, search portals, and data processing 27.0

Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets26.1


The unemployed in South Central region are staying unemployed longer and it is occurring in

most industries

# of industries with avg unemployment

>16 weeks

# of industries with avg

unemployment <10 weeks

Total number of industries

reporting data

2003 13 5 90

2005 13 16 90

2009 81 1 89


Job Seekers and Job Postings

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• This project supports CERC and the Workforce Alliance in conducting an in-depth labor market analysis that will be used to help develop a comprehensive regional plan and inform workforce development system stakeholders on the South Central Connecticut region’s emerging labor market issues, trends and challenges

– Specifically, the Monster work will support Objective 1: “Detailed analysis of the labor market for the South Central Workforce Investment Area (WIA) region emphasizing growth, job projections, trends, career ladders and lattices and wages”

• This report will analyze supply and demand for the South Central Connecticut region and it its four sub-regions:

– City of New Haven– Greater New Haven: Bethany, Branford, Clinton, East Haven, Guilford, Hamden, Killingworth,

Madison, Meriden, Milford, North Branford, North Haven, Orange, Wallingford, West Haven, Woodbridge

– Lower Connecticut River: Chester, Deep River, Essex ,Old Saybrook. Westbrook – Upper Connecticut River: Cromwell, Durham, East Haddam, East Hampton, Haddam, Middlefield,

Middletown, Portland

South Central CT │ Project Overview

• Key Data Sources– Monster supply and demand data to understand location, education,

work experience and supply/demand balance– Wanted Technologies: information gathered from hundreds of private

and public job boards that collectively represent 80-85% of total on-line job postings. Key Wanted data = occupations and industriesData Reporting

– The time periods analyzed in this report are the months January-October for the years 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010

South Central CT │ Project Overview

South Central CT│ Critical Insights

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Total job postings in South Central CT increased 23.3% from January to October 2010 (totaling 86,560) after falling 14.8% the same period the prior year

Occupations most in demand include Registered Nurses; Retail Salespersons; Managers of Retail Sales Workers; Customer Service Representatives; and Physical Therapists

Administrative and Support Services accounts for nearly a quarter (24%) of all industry job postings

> Its share has fallen from 36% in 2007 as Educational Services postings assumed a larger share (it rose from 4% to 10% over the same period), primarily driven by growth in the City of New Haven

The Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services and Manufacturing industries have a strong volume of both postings and resumes, while the Information, Health Care & Social Assistance, and Finance & Insurance industries exhibit an oversupply of talent

There are differences in the talent demand and supply with regard to education and experience

> Employers seek primarily those with a Bachelor’s degree (53%) while seekers are more senior and junior

> 66% of job opportunities are for those with 2 to 7 years of work experience compared to 33% of available candidates; candidates offer more years of experience (39% have over 10 years)

30% of job opportunities are for Contract/Temporary positions, which are typically strong following a recession as companies cautiously hire

City of New Haven│ Critical Insights

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The City of New Haven is the largest of the four sub-regions in terms of job postings, representing 54% of volume from January to October 2010

> The region reported the largest volume increase in job postings from 2009 to 2010 (+7,737) following the most significant volume decrease in 2009

While Registered Nurses account for 3.4% of all occupation job postings, the remaining top roles are diverse and include food, retail, IT, sales and administrative

The fastest growing occupations in 2010 were Truck Drivers; Managers of Food Preparation Workers; Computer Support Specialists; and Managers of Retail Workers, each of which expanded in excess of 50% over the prior year period

Administrative and Support Services accounts for nearly a quarter (24%) of all industry job postings

> Its share has fallen from 44% in 2007 as Educational Services postings assumed a larger share (it rose from 5% to 17% over the same period)

When looking at the balance of supply and demand, the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services industry has a strong supply of both postings and resumes, while the Information, Health Care & Social Assistance, Finance & Insurance, and Manufacturing industries are in need of job opportunities

The City of New Haven differentiates itself with a much younger candidate pool compared with the other sub-regions, which may challenge employers’ to fill required roles

> It has the strongest supply of Students (14%) and Entry Level (18%) candidates

> It has the least educated group: 29% have at most a High School education while 74% of opportunities require at least a Bachelor’s degree

> It has the least experienced population: nearly half (49%) have less than five years of experience

Greater New Haven│ Critical Insights

27

The region showed a strong expansion in job postings from 2009 to 2010 (+27.7%) after reporting the smallest percentage drop among the regions (-10.4%) from 2008 to 2009

Greater New Haven’s occupation job postings were comprised of more medical positions as compared to the other regions, though retail roles held the top two spots: Retail Salespersons (5.2%) and Managers of Retail Sales Workers (4.5%)

Similar to the other regions, the occupations in supply are concentrated in administrative, manager, finance and IT roles

When looking at the balance of supply and demand, the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services and Manufacturing industries have a strong supply of both postings and resumes, while the Information, Finance & Insurance, and Health Care & Social Assistance industries indicate a talent surplus

Seekers in Greater New Haven are more distributed in terms of education, meaning employers and seekers percentage share is similar (for example, 41% of postings are for those with a Bachelor’s degree compared with 36% of relative seekers)

However, the data still shows gaps in career and experience:

> 64% of job postings are for Experienced and 17% for Manager level while 43% of seekers are Experienced and 31% of seekers are Manager level

> 85% of job postings seek candidates with 1 to 7 years of experience compared to 39% of available candidates

Lower CT River│ Critical Insights

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Though the Lower CT River has the lowest number of job postings (2,389) in the first ten months of 2010 it reported the strongest percentage growth (+45%) in 2010

The top three occupations with job postings include Customer Service Representatives (5.9%), Retail Salespersons (5.8%), and Manager of Retail Salespersons (4.6%)

On each of the other regions’ top occupations in demand, Registered Nurses was notably absent from Lower CT River’s list

The leading occupations in supply are populated with sales and management positions

In terms of industry, Administrative and Support Services is the most popular industry (25%) while Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services holds a strong second rank with 19% share of postings

Lower CT River seekers are more senior compared to those in the other sub-regions

> This area is the only one to have a higher supply of Manager level candidates (39%) than Experienced (32%)

> It has the highest percentage of educated candidates, as 57% have at least a Bachelor’s degree

> It has the strongest supply of most experienced seekers: 56% have over 10 years of experience

This region also has a strong percentage of Contract/Temporary job opportunities (33%)

Upper CT River│ Critical Insights

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Upper CT River had 6,724 job postings from January to October 2010, up 20.1% over the prior year period

Looking at occupations, Registered Nurses has the most demand (4.6% share of job postings) yet fell (-46%) from 2009 to 2010 as most other occupations reported strong growth

The supply and demand analysis reveals the Manufacturing industry is the only one to have a strong supply of both postings and resumes, while the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services and Finance & Insurance industries could benefit from an increase in job roles to satisfy the strong seeker pools

There is a fairly even match between employer and candidate career level percentages: 48% of job postings are for Experienced level candidates compared to 45% of seekers and 39% of roles for Manager level compared to 31% of seekers

The other characteristics, education and years of experience, revealed differing trends: candidates are more senior and junior than employers’ desired education level (primarily Bachelor’s and High School level) and candidates are more senior (42% have over 10 years of experience) compared to 0% of job opportunities for this level

Only 14% of job postings are for Contract/Temporary roles, a small percentage primarily due to the low volume of postings

National & South Central CT│ Total Job Postings

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The percentage decrease in job postings form January-October 2009 vs. the same period in 2008 was lower Nationally (-25.7%) than in South Central CT (-14.8%)

The percentage increase in job postings for January-October 2010 vs. 2009 was slightly higher Nationally (+26.8%) than in South Central CT (+23.3%)

Source: Wanted Technologies, January-October, 2007-2010

South Central Sub-Regions│ Total Job Postings

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Of the four sub-regions, the City of New Haven showed the greatest decline in job postings (- 8,258) from 2008 to 2009 but also exhibited the greatest expansion in postings the following year (+ 7,737)


South Central CT

South Central CT│ Occupations in Demand


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In general, the percentage change in job posting volume for the top 30 occupations in the January-October period in 2010 versus 2009 was lower in the South Central Region than on a National level

The share of top 30 occupations represented by sales, customer service and food services jobs is higher in South Central CT than on a national basis

The top occupations that showed the highest percentage change for the first 10 months of 2010 vs. the same period in 2009 were Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor Trailer (+74.8%) and First Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers (+68.4%), while Medical and Health Services Managers was the only occupation to decline (-1.3%)

South Central CT│ Labor Market Matrix

Source: Monster Internal Data, January–October, 2010

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High PerformanceProfessional, Scientific, & Technical Services and Manufacturing are in the High Performance zone, indicating a strong volume of talent demand and supply. Both circles are small, showing demand may outweigh supply.

Incubator OpportunitiesA majority of industries are in the growth area as they have a comparatively lower volume of both resumes and opportunities.

Talent DeficitThere are no industries in the Talent Deficit area, showing the lack of opportunities and surplus of candidates in the area.

Talent SurplusThere are three industries partially in the Talent Surplus quadrant: Information, Finance & Insurance, and Health Care & Social Assistance. Each of these industries has a strong supply of candidates and would benefit from an increase in job postings.

Talent Surplus

Incubator Opportunities

Talent Deficit

High Performance

The size of the circle represents the supply, based on the ratio of resumes per job from January 2010 through October 2010. A large circle indicates a large pool of talent in comparison to the demand, and a smaller circle represents areas where the demand may outweigh the supply.

How to Read this Chart

South Central CT │ Career & Education Supply and Demand

Source: Monster Internal Data, January-October, 2010

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South Central CT employers are searching for primarily Experienced candidates (63%), while seekers are concentrated in Experienced (43%) and Manager (29%) levels

In terms of Education, employers are focused on those with Bachelor degrees (53%); while the seeker base is more heavily comprised of candidates with education below that level

South Central CT │ Years of Experience Supply and Demand

Source: Monster Internal Data, January-October, 2010

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The South Central CT region’s years of experience requirements are typical: seekers tend to be more evenly distributed as well as more senior while job postings are concentrated in early-to-mid career requirements

66% of job opportunities are for candidates with 2 to 7 years of experience, compared to 33% of relative candidates

City of New Haven│ Occupations in Demand


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The rebound in job posting volume in 2010 in the City of New Haven was led by sales, supervisor/manager and computer specialists occupations

Telemarketers, Accountants and Auditors, and Insurance Sales Agents made the list of top 15 occupations in the City of New Haven, but were not present on the same list at the regional level

The occupations that exhibited a year-on-year rate of 50% or more were Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor Trailer (+105.6%), First Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers (+67.2%), Computer Support Specialists (+63.6%), and First Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (+53.3%)

Greater New Haven │ Occupations in Demand


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In general, the list of top occupations in the Greater New Haven sub-region was comprised more of medical occupations and therapists (physical, occupational) than in the City of New Haven

The occupations that showed the highest percentage change for the first 10 months of 2010 vs. the same period in 2009 were Licensed Practical and Vocational Nurses (+91.1%), First Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers (+84.5%) and Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products (+75.3%), while Tellers (-11.7%) and Registered Nurses (-1.5%) exhibited the lowest growth rates

Lower CT River│ Occupations in Demand


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Retail positions lead the list of top occupations in this region, while Registered Nurses is not one of the most frequent occupations in demand as is the case in the other sub-regions

The occupations that showed the highest net gains in job posting volume for the first 10 months of 2010 vs. the same period in 2009 were Physical Therapists (+44 postings ) Retail Salespersons (+40 postings) Customer Service Representatives (+31 postings) and First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers (+29 postings)

Upper CT River│ Occupations in Demand


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Aerospace Engineers and Mechanical Engineers are among the top 15 occupations here, but not in the other sub-regions

Relative to the January-October 2009 period, job posting volume in 2010 more than doubled for the following occupations: Customer Services Representatives, First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers, Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Industrial Engineers, Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products, and First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

Key Findings• Have more usable data than ever before• Workforce Alliance can access ongoing, real-time data through

CERC-Monster partnership• Harder to pick winners and losers coming out of this recession,

requires a new approach– More important to look at occupations rather than industries– Focus on general employability skills, job readiness for population as

whole and population with special needs rather than industry sector training

– Even entry-level jobs require a higher level of skills than ever before– Workforce Boards will play a role in determining how to address college

remediation– One quarter of unemployed is between 46 and 55 years during this

recession, and job opportunities primarily seek candidates with 1 to 7 years of experience while candidates are more senior, so re-training is a key issue

– Need for connectivity between places of employment and location of employees

Documents

Presentation to: Chief Elected Officials Executive Committee Meeting Key Indicators and Workforce Development Trends February 11, 2011