- 1. People andForest Patches: Residential exposure and Lyme
disease in Southern New England Senior Thesis in Environmental
Science Allan Just April 19 th , 2005 Source: Sarah Leen
2. People, Environment, and Lyme Disease 3. Study Questions
- How does human interaction with tick habitats influence the
public health risk of Lyme disease?
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- What are the spatial patterns of disease?
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- What is the role of potential habitat and residential
exposure?
4. Outline
- Public Health and Environmental Integrity
- Lyme Disease Introduction
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- Variable construction and analysis
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- Visualizing the human risk of Lyme disease
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- The importance of residential exposure
- Implications and Future Directions
5. Ecology of Lyme Disease
Source: Centers for Disease Control 6. Bloodmeals Source:
American Lyme Disease Foundation 7. Lyme Disease Burden
- 23,763 cases of Lyme disease nationally in 2002
- Chronic Joint inflammation
Source: CDC Lyme DiseaseMMWR Jan 18, 2002/51(02) 8. Tick Habitat
Characteristics
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- Focused on Ecology and Entomology
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- Usually limited to small areas and short sampling season
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- Often focus on entomologic indices of human risk
9. Tick Habitat Characteristics
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- Focused on Ecology and Entomology
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- Usually limited to small areas and short sampling season
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- Often focus on entomologic indices of human risk
- Characteristics of where ticks are found
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- Nearby Ornamentals and Lawns
10. Human Exposure
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- studies focus on individual human behaviors and nearby
habitat
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- Case-control designs are limited in area and numbers
- Exposure characterized in the northeast as Peridomestic
- Distance from residence to forest is important
- Also recreational and occupational exposures beyond the
home
11. Outline
- Public Health and Environmental Integrity
- Lyme Disease Introduction
-
- Variable construction and analysis
-
- Visualizing the human risk of Lyme disease
-
- The importance of residential exposure
- Implications and Future Directions
12. Study Area and Population
- All residents from 1998-2002
13. Data Sources
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- MA Department of Public Health
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- CT Department of Public Health
- Nationally Notifiable Disease since 1991
The author is not affiliated with the Massachusetts Department
of Public Health and the Department of Public Health is not
responsible for the accuracy and validity of the results
presented.The views stated are not necessarily those of the
Department. 14. Data Sources
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- National Land Cover Dataset 1992
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- Block level smallest spatial unit; Average 73 persons
15. Variable Construction
- Multi-state GIS, Raster Overlay
- An Example Urban-to-Rural transect of Towns in Rhode
Island
Land Cover Census Population Density 16. Zooming in 17.
RuralUrban Population Density 18. Land Cover 19. 67%55%43%3%
Increasing Proportion of town area classified as deciduous forest
20. Increasing Proportion of the Population at 30m or less from
deciduous forest 85%74%37%2% 21. Results
- Visualizing Lyme Disease Cumulative Incidence
- Association with Deciduous Forest
- Residential Exposure Aggregates
22. 23. Deciduous Forest and Cumulative Incidence of Lyme
disease Relative Rate =13(10 to 16) Rate of 50 Lowest towns Rate of
27 Highest Towns 24. Residential Exposure Aggregates and Cumulative
Incidence of Lyme disease Relative Rate =26(20 to 34) Rate of 47
Lowest towns Rate of 14 Highest Towns 25. can we simply pave over
the ticks 26. can we simply pave over the ticks 27. can we simply
pave over the ticks 28. can we simply pave over the ticks 29. 30.
Comparison 31. Comparison 32. Comparison 33. Further Steps
- Multivariate Modeling that accounts for rare disease
outcome
- Stratify by Ecoregions to observe variation that may be
abiotic
- Interpret more recent remotely sensed images for land cover,
likely habitat, and the role of mixed pixels
34. Benefits and Policy Implications
- Regional scale for decision making and prioritization
- Applicable to future endemic areas for prediction
- Promote compact development in town planning and at the
state/regional level
- Add loss of health from disease to costs of sprawl
35. Acknowledgments Rachel Morello-Frosch Jen Hughes, Sally
Zierler, John Brownstein Bill Jesdale Lynn CarlsonTracy LaPorte,
Dr. Bandy Catherine Starr The Suite Noam Ross Friends and Family
The ES Community 36. 37.