Presentation Outline

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I. Challenges for Sustainable Development Climate change as a planetary boundary

Population Growth and Agricultural Production

Environmental Risk and Economy

II. Green Economy and Decoupling Evidence from EU after 1979

Decoupling Potential

III. Status of Korean GHGs Korean GHGs

IV. Agriculture and Co-Benefits in Climate Change V. How to Achieve Co-Benefits VI. Road to Ahead

Climate change as a planetary boundary problem

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Source: Stockholm Resilience Centre WebsiteKojima Satoshi, “ Challenges for Sustainable Development” ChungAng university Workshop presentation paper, 2015.2.9

Planetary boundary

Exceeding boundary indicates potential of irreversible catastrophic change of ecosystems.

I. Challenges for Sustainable Development

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Population Growth : ProjectionIf current trends continue, by 2030 two-thirds of the world’s population will live in areas of high water stress

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Global demand for meat will double from 229 million tons in 1999-2001 to 465 million tons in 2050.

Increased food demand and changing diets: driven by rising incomes and other shifts, changing diets will increase demand for resource-intensive products such as meat

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Change of Yield Production, 2010-2100

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Change of Agricultural Production from 2003 to 2080

- At the Maximum, 25% Production Decrease in the South.

Natural Disaster and Loss, 2014

Climate Disaster and Economic Cost Science ; Cost of Climate Change will be 1.2 trillion dollar per year.Every Year in the world, 50 Billion Dollar will be paid for the insurance damage

Source: Science, “ Climate Change the greening of Insurance,” 2012.12.24MuniRe, “Natural catastrophes 2013, Analyses, assessments, positions 2014 issue,” 2015 Report 8

2013, 890 loss had registered with US$ 135bn and insured losses of US$ 35bn. 2013 can be described as a relatively moderateyear but still exceeded the ten-year (790) and 30-year (630) average

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In 2011 the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) reported, “if nothing changes, humanity will demand 140 billion tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass every year by 2050. This is three times our current rate of resource consumption, and far beyond what the Earth can supply. We need to fairly rapidly learn to decouple natural resource use and environmental impacts from economic growth.”

Coping most successfully with resource depletion requires a broad range of strategies. These include ; - improved recycling, the end of our disposable culture, - a return to taking care of things and repairing them - and making investments in renewable energy sources

II. Green Economy and Decoupling

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• Fuel savings: additional € 18 billion fuel per year next 2 decades• Energy security: additional 11% cut in energy imports in 2030• Innovation: jobs & growth• Health and air pollution benefits: €7-13.5 billion in 2030

Reductions vs 2005:

ETS -43%

Non ETS -30%

• Decoupling of GDP growth from GHGs Emissions will continue

Source, Artur Runge-Metzger, European Commission, “Towards a global climate deal in Paris,” presented in the Green Growth Committee Special workshop, 2015.4.1

GHGs Emissions are decreasing since 1979 in EU.

Emission reductions (EU-28 and Iceland):• Total emissions (w

ithout LULUCF) in 2012 are 21.7% below base year levels

• Projected to be around 24,5% below base year levels in 2020.

• Over the period 2008-2012, the average annual emissions are 18.8% below base year levels

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4.000

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EU-28 +IS historic emissions EU-28 projections With Existing Measures

estimated overachievement compared to target 2013-20 Target for the 1st commitment period (2008–2012)

Target for the 2nd commitment period (2013–2020)

CP1 Kyoto Mechanisms

CP1 C.sinks

4.2 GtCO2 eq

1.3 GtCO2 eq

5.5 GtCO2 eq

Potential Overachievement CP2:

Total :

Potential Overachievement CP1:

Source, Artur Runge-Metzger, European Commission, “Towards a global climate deal in Paris,” presented in the Green Growth Committee Special workshop, 2015.4.1

Many Countries can Reduce GHGs

Source; European Commission, “The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 “, SWD(2015) 17 final, Brussels, 25.2.2015

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III. Status of GHGs Emission in Korea

Status of GHG Emission

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Energy 451.3 459.4 467.5 473.9 494.4 508.8 515.1 568.9 597.9

Ind. Process 68.1 68.3 64.5 63.8 60.8 60.6 57.8 62.6 63.4

Agri. 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.8 21.8 22.1 22.1 22.0

Waste 17.5 16.4 15.4 15.8 14.4 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.4

Total Emission 559.1 566.1 569.5 575.2 591.4 605.4 609.2 667.8 697.7

Net Emission 521.0 529.9 533.2 538.4 551.3 562.7 565.6 624.0 654.7

LULUCF -38.2 -36.3 -36.3 -36.8 -40.1 -42.7 -43.6 -43.7 -43.0

Trend of GHGs (Million ton CO2-eq)

Source: GIR, “2013 National Inventory Report, “, IPCC guidelineNet = total – LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry)

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• Industry 81.3 million ton CO2e, Power (81.3 million ton CO2e) reduction target

• Transportation reduction rate (34.3%), building(26.9%), power(26.7%), public (25.0%), industry(18.5%), waste(12.3%), agriculture(5.2%) • 233 million ton CO2e reduction .

Korea and Climate Change Projection

Present

(1986-

2005)

(2046-2065) (2081-2100)

Ave. Temper(℃) 11.3 +3.3 (+2.3) +5.9 (+3.0)

Max Tem/day(℃) 16.8 +3.3 (+2.3) +5.7 (+2.9)

Min tem./day (℃) 6.3 +3.5 (+2.4) +6.1 (+3.2)

Rainfall (mm) 1144.5 +21% +13% +18% (+20%)

Heat wave (day) 7.5 +7.4 (+3.9) +24.4 (+6.1)

High heat

wave(day)2.6 +13.2 (+6.6) +37.2 (+11.8)

flood(day) 2.2 +1.1 (+0.9) +0.8 (+1.0)

note : 1986-2005년 and RCP8.5 (RCP 4.5 base)Source: KMA, “ Korean Climate Change Projection Report,” KMA, 2013

• Over the past 30 years, Temperature increases 1.2 C• Until late 21C, South and West will be tropical zone• High Heat will increase 7.5 day/year to 31.9 days/year

<Korean and CC> (2041-2070) (2071-2100)

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□ Weak Agricultural SOC

- Average Soil Erosion ; 30 ton/ha/ year. In Kwangwon Province, Erosion ; 30~80 ton/ha/ year

□ Changing Cultivating Area - Radish in Kwangwon province ; 4,017ha(‘01) to 2,596ha(’07)- Cabbage ; 10,234ha(‘01) to 6,311ha(’07) - Apple (48% -> 1%), Grape (28% -> 55% -> 8%)

source; Naver photo Viewer,

(FAO, 2009) estimated that the world will need to produce at least 70 per cent more food because of climate change, and expected dietary shifts (including increased consumption of animal products)

The IPCC report(2007) estimates that 70 per cent of the mitigation potential in agriculture is in developing countries.

IPCC(2007) predicts that yields from rain-fed farming in some African countries could fall by up to 50 per cent by 2020, and by up to 30 per cent in some central and South Asian countries by 2050.

Sustainable agricultural practices that mitigate carbon can have important co-benefits, including increased soil fertility and productivity, enhanced resistance to drought and extreme weather, and better capacity to adapt to climate change.

Agricultural sector has the potential to contribute substantially to GHGs emission reductions with potential ranges from 5 to 20 per cent of total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030,

Global mitigation potential (excluding fossil fuel offsets from biomass) ranging from 5.5 to 6 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent per year by 2030.

IV. Agriculture and Co-Benefits in Climate Change

David Lobell(2013) used a model of global agricultural trade to investigate the co-benefits of helping farmers adapt to climate change.

- An investment of $225 bn for adaptation measures can be expected to offset negative yield impacts associated with predicted temp. and rainfall changes. - Investment would save 61 million hectares from conversion to cropland, resulting in 15 Gtonnes carbon-dioxide equivalent fewer emissions by 2050. By doing,

- developing new seeds that have better disease resistance or drought tolerance, new soil management techniques to conserve water

- investments in high yielding, land-scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation.

- agricultural adaptation measures would prevent around 350 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide emissions annually

David B Lobell et al, « Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments,“ 2013 Environ. Res. Lett.8 015012

Deborah Murphy, , “Encouraging a Triple Dividend in Agriculture: Increased food security, improved adaptive capacity and reduced emissions,” “ IISD Food Security and Climate Change Initiative , 2011.11

Wright(2011). an organic agriculture can feed the world if a change in diets and land use is accepted.

A Meridian Institute Report (Campbell, et al., 2011) ; - agriculture could meet ever–growing demand for food while also

contributing meaningfully to mitigation if governments and farmers undertake what they refer to as climate-smart agriculture actions, and its study stressed the importance of open global trade to help food security.

(Note) Climate-Smart agriculture (CSA), defined by FAO at the Hague Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change in 2010, contributes to achievement of SDG.

The Royal Society (2010) determined that the growth in production must be achieved for the most part without the cultivation of additional land: and large-scale sustainable intensification is needed, with substantially lower reliance on fossil fuels.

IFRI(2011) Triple-win climate agricultural production methods are location-specific:

- soil nutrient management and improved livestock feeding practices produce triple-win benefits in each area studied, other practices—including changing crop varieties—produced mixed results depending on location

• Kenya Agricultural Carbon Project, supported by the Bio Carbon Fund and SCC-VI Agroforestry, an initiative that generates the triple dividend.

• This first project in Africa to sell soil carbon credits on the voluntary market has benefited 60,000 smallholder farmers on 45,000 hectares. These farmers have improved farming practices through integrated water management, sustainable intensification, integrated soil fertility management, improved weather information, agroforestry, and better land-use planning.

• Contributed to the triple dividend: Mitigation—carbon uptake through soil sequestration and

agroforestry; estimated to generate a total of 1.2 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2e with a direct benefit to communities of US $350,000.

Adaptation—increased variety of food crops, and better water harvesting and retention.

Food Security—increased crop yields through productivity-enhancing practices and technologies.

Triple Dividend Example.

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1. Urban Farm, Gardening Efforts Make Your Neighbor and Local Community Green

2. Use Bio-mass Energy Use Livestock Waste and make fertilizer Hong Chun Town Project in Kwang Won Province)

3. Use Agricultural Reservoir for Energy Use PV (Chupungryung Region)

4. Promote “Buy Local” Public Communication, Shorten the distance

5. Hybrid Agriculture and Industry Complex (Hadong Region) New type of EIP (Eco-Industrial Park)

6. Introduce Agricultural Credit(A-CER) for ETS Use Green Financing Method

7. Enhance Agroforestry ; - Planting trees on farmland; improve soil fertility, raise smallholders’ incomes

V. How to Achieve Co-Benefits;

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8. Use of minimum tillage9. Retention of organic matter10. Crop rotation, 11. Introduce Index-based insurance policy for the farmers

- In 2011-2012, 29 Million Indian Farmers signed insurance.Government give 2/3 of the cost. (Same as Korean Government)

12. Provide accurate seasonal forecast13. Tackle food waste;

- Improve access to markets, - Provide better storage facilities, - Encouraging consumers not to waste food - Reduce post-harvest losses on the farm(Ex.) Total Volume-based General Waste Fee, Total Volume-based Food Waste Fee (Korea – Good Bench Practice)

14. Create Financial Incentives- Establishing transition fund- Award Payments for Environmental Services(PES)

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15. Develop Knowledge Sharing Platform for low cost technology ;- International Rice Research Institute developed Alternate Wet and Dry

(AWD) method that uses very simple technology to reduce the need for irrigation by about 25–30 per cent.

- Leaf Colour Chart (LCC) that farmers can use to easily determine if urea fertilizer needs to be applied. LCC can reduce application of urea by about 30 per cent, reducing costs of input and lowering emissions of nitrous oxide.

16. Co-Research and Knowledge Transfer in Regional area

- Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases,

- Global Donor Platform for Rural Development.

- Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research(CGIAR),

- International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

- International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)

Pasona Urban Farm , Japan’

• Rice Field in 20,000m2)• Green vegetable in outside of Building ; 200• Reduce 2 tons per year • 150kg rice production • Agriculture Internship

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Micro Hydropower energy, Rice Husk

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Energy ; Rice Husk Use

2.5 MW power Plant ; Chia Meng (Thai)

The Ulsan project – Scandinavian biogas

Scandinavian Biogas first plant in Korea

Biogas plant integrated with the Youngyun Sewage Treatment Plant

15 year Build-Operate-Transfer agreement

Co-digestion of Sewage sludge and Household Waste

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Waste-to-Biogas potential in Korea

Feasible utilization of•Livestock manure•Food waste•Agricultural residues•Industrial organic waste•Utilization of sewage sludge

Optimized biogas production process

Biogas production potential (million Nm3 CH4 per year)

Potential to substitute18 % of natural gas currently used in South Korea

30Delin Tarras, “Climate Change and Renewable Energy Policy – Sweden, 2010.10.29

Energy Independence Village, Kuzumaki(Japan)

- 89% mountain area, designed by private companies and national co-funding facility - Energy source by reforestation and thinning-out tree- 120kW ligneous bio-gas power plant- Build a wood waste energy conversion facility- Compressed wood fuel pellet manufacturing plant and a pellet boiler for power generation supply business(started 25years ago)

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15 wind power plants, generate 56 million KWh per year

Biogas plant generate heat and electric power from livestock sludge

Provide milk house and accommodations with electric power

Background

2009.7 “ Plan for the waste resources and bio-mass energy,” Planned to have 600 eco towns - Changed to 40 eco towns Each government Unit will establish 10 villages from 2010 to 2012 4 types; Urban, Agriculture, City and Agriculture, and Forest Until 2013, 7 villages are under constructing. Mangwol, Gwang-ju is

finished 110 HH pellet (130 ton, reduce heating cost 53.16 million won, reduce

166t CO2,- Provide 500,000 won for one household

Lack of communication for the people, and role of people Bad Odor from transportation and create MIMBY situation Lack of Local government financial support (Yanggi, Eumgi

Village) Lack of investment from private and local citizens Give Hardware such as energy facilities, but not insufficient

software such as maintenance skill, operational skill andefficiency. Too hasty federal government policy

Problems

Department Village Selectedyear contents

Investment cost

(million won)

CurrentState

Ministry of Environment

Mangwol, Gwang-ju

2011Livestock sludge Biomass

energization facilities5,000

2013.9Completion

Somaegok-ri, Gangwon

2013Livestock sludge Biomass

energization facilities5,200

2013.3Completion

Ministry of Security and Public Administration

Geumdae-ri, Chungnam

2011 Geothermal energy 4,6002013.6Completion

Yeongsong, Gyeonggi

2011Livestock sludge fuel and

fertilizer6,600

2013.5Completion

Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs

Duk-Am,JeonBuk

2010Energy efficiency Building,

Green Village Center5,500

2012.6Begin construction

Korea Forest Service

SeoByuk-ri,GyeongBuk

2010 Distribute Wood pallet Boiler 5,6002012.11Completion

Nreup(느릅), Gangwon

2011Distribute Wood pallet Boiler,

Forest Biomass Center 5,600

2012.9Beginconstruction

Deungyong village, Buan, Chunra province

27 HH, 60 people Construct Solar power Plant in 2005, 2006 – 4 Geo thermal facility, 2007

Bio Diesel(rapeseed oil) 2008 construct 1, 2nd PV, 2009, Buan Solar Sharing Plant, and house

remodeling project for energy efficiency - Cooperation Type 60% of Electricity is provied. Until 2015, 50% of energy indenpence

36http://blog.naver.com/hd8965/220210386101

- Chupoongryong Water Resorvoir PV; World Largest Water PV- Capacity 2700 MW, 900 HH- Effects; Pine tree 240000, CO2 1,200 ton reduction - Green solar 5 billion Korean won, 2014.12 - In Sang Ju, 2015 % MW, Another World Largest Water PV will be build.

CO2 reduction

2011년 5월~11월

12,000m2 [180 × 70(m)]

green house , PV

Biofuel, medicine,Health, cosmetic etc.)

CO2 Use; Bio fuel - Korean South Power Co.

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• Increase Invest in green technology (Soil Erosion, Water)

• Introduce Reforestation, Forest Reservation Direct

Subsidy Program

• Reinforcement of energy & environment partnership

between small, medium, large companies

• Enhance Public Insurance System (Carbon Insurance)

• Use More local based energy (Micro Grid)

• Build More Energy Independent Town

• Enhance Agricultural Reservoir PV

VI. Road to Ahead

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Increase Urban Farm and Forest

Integrate Eco-Industrial Park; Agriculture & Industry

Give Accurate Weather Information and Specializing Area Introduce New Economic Measures;

- water trade right, Direct subsidy eco-value forAgriculture

VI. Road to Ahead

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Thank you for

your kind attentionjeongin@cau.ac.kr

Source : United Nations ESCAP Report

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