Presentation for the 17th Annual Conference Presentation for the 17th Annual Conference The European Real Estate SocietyThe European Real Estate Society23- 26th June 2010, Milan, Italy 23- 26th June 2010, Milan, Italy

AN ANALYSIS of the STRENGTHS and WEAKNESSES of the TURKISH REAL ESTATE MARKET

26.06.2010

Yener COŞKUN*

Senior SpecialistCapital Markets Board of Turkey

*PhD Candidate, Ankara University The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Real Estate Development Department*PhD Candidate, Ankara University The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Real Estate Development Department

Professional Experience; Capital Markets Board of Turkey, Senior Specialist

(1995-Current)

Education; Ankara University, Faculty of Political Science, Public

Finance Dpt. (1989-1994) University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Visiting

Scholar, Capital Markets Program (2003-2004) Gazi University, Business Management Dpt., MSc,

Banking (2005-2007) Ankara University, The Graduate School of Natural

and Applied Sciences, Real Estate Development Dpt., PhD Candidate, Real Estate Development (2008-Current)

Publications; Published books/journal articles; planned book/book

chapters/journal articles…

Presentation PlanPresentation Plan OVERVIEW OVERVIEW TO TO

TURKISH ECONOMY TURKISH ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE AND REAL ESTATE SECTORSECTOR

OPPORTUNITIES in OPPORTUNITIES in TURKISH REAL TURKISH REAL ESTATE SECTORESTATE SECTOR

DISADVANTAGES of DISADVANTAGES of TURKISH REAL TURKISH REAL ESTATE SECTORESTATE SECTOR

A MODEL A MODEL SUGGESTION SUGGESTION

OVERVIEW OVERVIEW TO TO TURKISH TURKISH ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE

SECTORSECTOR

The Outlook of Turkish Economy Growth pattern and financial sector;

Open economy and liberal regulations in finance sectors Short term capital movements Intensive portfolio investments on stocks and T-bonds

Crisis;

Turkey has faced several financial crisis arisen from the banking sector

2000-2001 banking crisis, was the most destructive one

2003-2007 Boom Period;

Liquidity surplus in global economy Increasing stability/positive outlook of the Turkish economy FDI between the 2005-2009/9 period is 73 billion USD

Global Financial Crisis and Turkish Economy

Economy enjoys having less developed markets No crisis conditions in banking, capital markets and

insurance sectors

External impacts; Negative growth, Increasing unemployment etc.

Real Estate Sector Currently;

Excess supply in housing Decrease in property values

Positive long-term outlook

Real Estate and the Turkish Economy

Fundamentals

Forest, Pasture, Cadastral Area

The area of Turkey is 778.000 km². 26% is forest, 12.3% is pasture area The rest is the cadastral area which contains 480.000 km², in

total.

Residential and rural area

Residential area is about 5% (40.000 km²) Rural area is about 56% (440.000 km²).

Parcels and Registers

There are approximately 35.000.000 parcels 600.000 registers in Turkey (Bank and Mataracı, 2004: 3).

As for cadastre, the works with a completion percentage of 88.1% as of 2009 (Çete et al., 2010: 627)

Demographic Trends and Real Estate

Urban population

Population growth and inter-regional migration significant drivers Increased by some 10 million dwellers, Istanbul alone has grown by nearly 2 million new inhabitants.

The last census counted a population of roughly 70.6 m at the end of 2007.

In 2007 the fertility rate was at 2.2 (children per woman) compared to an average fertility rate of 1.5 for the EU-25 countries.

With currently more than 53% of inhabitants younger than 30 years

Overall growth and construction volume reached €24 bn in 2007.

Deutsche Bank Research (2008: 7), Deloitte (2009: 77) and Jones Lang Lasalle (2008: 5)

Household Sentiments

Real estate economy is growing at the expense of financial economy

The motive is related to protection of savings from adverse impacts of High inflation rates, Negative real interest rate

Real estate represents Hedging instrument rather than a short-term investment

instrument, Particularly for the perception of the middle and lower -

income residents’

Construction Sector Construction activities seems critical for

GDP growth Employment

Turkey is among the top countries in the export construction services.

In the period of 1972-2009; About 700 Turkish contractors have completed, Over 5.000 projects In 75 countries The total value: 155 billion USD.

Housing Construction

Most housing in Turkey is produced by

private developers, public, quasi-public (cooperatives) private organizations.

There are also substantial amount of shanty houses (Halıcıoğlu, 2005: 1).

Social Housing by HAD

Housing Shortage

Due to population growth and continuing urbanization Turkey will require an additional 5,5

million housing units,by 2015.

500,000 new housing units required to be built annually

(Turhan, 2008: 4).

Opportunities in Turkish Real Estate Markets

Motives in Domestic DemandOpportunities in Istanbul RE Markets

Advantages of REITs

Motives in Domestic Motives in Domestic DemandDemand

High inflation+negative real interest rates High inflation+negative real interest rates Incresing investment in;Incresing investment in; Precious metals (specifically the gold market)Precious metals (specifically the gold market) Real estate (Coşkun, 2010a: 30). Real estate (Coşkun, 2010a: 30).

Real estate is symbols of socio-political Real estate is symbols of socio-political statute (particularly for rural area).statute (particularly for rural area).

Spending on housing finance and rent Spending on housing finance and rent consist of considerable part of consumer consist of considerable part of consumer payments.payments.

Motives in Domestic Motives in Domestic DemandDemand

OOwnership ratio seems high in Turkey,wnership ratio seems high in Turkey, Average housing ratioAverage housing ratio 67 % in EU 27 countries67 % in EU 27 countries 68 % in Turkey68 % in Turkey The ratio is below 40 % in the urban areas.The ratio is below 40 % in the urban areas. TThe main component of the strong domestic demand he main component of the strong domestic demand isis

residential.residential. DDemographics, emographics, RRural immigration, ural immigration, UUrbanizationrbanization IndustrializationIndustrialization RRenewalenewal

But still housing shortage in the market…But still housing shortage in the market…European Mortgage Federation (2007: 124) and Kongar (2003: 562) .European Mortgage Federation (2007: 124) and Kongar (2003: 562) .

Opportunities in İstanbul Real Estate Opportunities in İstanbul Real Estate MarketsMarkets

“The Latest Reports”“The Latest Reports” In the report Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2010, In the report Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2010, ULI and PwC (2010: 9, 35) ranked İstanbul third for ULI and PwC (2010: 9, 35) ranked İstanbul third for investment prospects and first for development.investment prospects and first for development.

In the next twenty years, the population in the provinces of In the next twenty years, the population in the provinces of Antalya, Bursa and İstanbul will likely increase by more Antalya, Bursa and İstanbul will likely increase by more than 30% (Deutsche Bank Research, 2008: 7).than 30% (Deutsche Bank Research, 2008: 7).

The built-up area in the province of Istanbul increased by The built-up area in the province of Istanbul increased by more than 40% between 1990 and 2005 (Deutsche Bank more than 40% between 1990 and 2005 (Deutsche Bank Research, 2008: 6).Research, 2008: 6).

Financial services in İstanbul Financial services in İstanbul might might create further create further expansion in real estate markets.expansion in real estate markets.

İstanbul needs more office space, İstanbul needs more office space, upper/middle class residential, logistics upper/middle class residential, logistics and hotel investments.and hotel investments.

It is estimated that 5 million sqm new It is estimated that 5 million sqm new office space will be required in the next 10 office space will be required in the next 10 years in the largest 25 cities (Altan, 2009: years in the largest 25 cities (Altan, 2009: 18).18).

Opportunities in İstanbul Real Estate Opportunities in İstanbul Real Estate MarketsMarkets

“Potential Development”“Potential Development”

Advantages of REITsAdvantages of REITs REITs offer leverage opportunity to real REITs offer leverage opportunity to real

estate companies.estate companies. Less developed, BUT, Less developed, BUT, EExempted xempted from corporate and income taxesfrom corporate and income taxes Freedom to choose their dividend policies Freedom to choose their dividend policies Significantly more flexibility in managing Significantly more flexibility in managing

their portfolios than their counterparts in their portfolios than their counterparts in developed countries (Erol and Tırtıroğlu, developed countries (Erol and Tırtıroğlu, 2008: 2694).2008: 2694).

Disadvantages in Turkish Real Disadvantages in Turkish Real Estate MarketsEstate Markets

Inefficient Finance-Real Estate LinkInefficient Finance-Real Estate LinkProblems in Real Estate AppraisalProblems in Real Estate Appraisal

Problems in HousingProblems in Housing

Caricature: http://www.hse.gov.uk/myth/images/risk2.jpg (07.05.2010)

Inefficient Finance-Real Estate Inefficient Finance-Real Estate LinkLink

“Primary Market”“Primary Market” Real estate Real estate growth growth may not reflect the same may not reflect the same

amount of growth in primary/secondary mortgage amount of growth in primary/secondary mortgage markets.markets.

Bad newsBad news Housing loans or institutional housing finance has only 3Housing loans or institutional housing finance has only 3 % of % of

the total housing ownership (the total housing ownership (TüsiadTüsiad,, 2005: 83 2005: 83).). Residential mortgage debt per capita were € 30, € 100 and € Residential mortgage debt per capita were € 30, € 100 and €

170 in Turkey (i.e.: € 650, € 860, € 1.170 in Crotia) (European 170 in Turkey (i.e.: € 650, € 860, € 1.170 in Crotia) (European Mortgage Federation, 2007: 122). Mortgage Federation, 2007: 122).

Good News: Room for development Good News: Room for development

Inefficient Finance-Real Estate Inefficient Finance-Real Estate LinkLink

“Secondary Market”“Secondary Market” Capital market finance broadly Capital market finance broadly

depends on stock financing rather depends on stock financing rather than bond financingthan bond financing

No securization in secondary marketNo securization in secondary market

Inefficient Finance-Real Estate Inefficient Finance-Real Estate LinkLink

“Secondary Market”“Secondary Market” Legal StructureLegal Structure

General belief: mortgage regulation is General belief: mortgage regulation is sound.sound.

Crowding OutCrowding Out Interest rates were gradually decreasing,Interest rates were gradually decreasing, But still no securization.But still no securization.

Financial crisis/constraints are also Financial crisis/constraints are also destabilizing the real estate market.destabilizing the real estate market.

Problems in Real Estate AppraisalProblems in Real Estate Appraisal

Appraisal problemsAppraisal problems Market/public based real estate transactionsMarket/public based real estate transactions

Appraisal problems are increasing: NOISE in the MARKET!!Appraisal problems are increasing: NOISE in the MARKET!! Land shortage in the urban area,Land shortage in the urban area, Complexity of land use and zoning practicesComplexity of land use and zoning practices

Data/Information Problems: NOISE in the MARKET!!Data/Information Problems: NOISE in the MARKET!! Less effective data availability (sales and rent information/statistics) Less effective data availability (sales and rent information/statistics) No sound/generally accepted official/unofficial value maps No sound/generally accepted official/unofficial value maps Absence of real estate indexAbsence of real estate index

Protecting Public Interest Protecting Public Interest Intensive political content and Intensive political content and

complicated structurecomplicated structure

The appraisal need of public propertiesThe appraisal need of public properties Public institutions’ transactions Public institutions’ transactions

(sale/lease/privatization etc. agreements, (sale/lease/privatization etc. agreements, expropriation etc.) expropriation etc.)

Decisions of courtsDecisions of courts

The system implies weaknessesThe system implies weaknesses

Appraisal Problems: ResultsAppraisal Problems: Results

Less observable price mechanisms/information and non-Less observable price mechanisms/information and non-transparent market structuretransparent market structure

Impair rational decision-making Impair rational decision-making Negative impacts on buyer/seller incentives in both residential and Negative impacts on buyer/seller incentives in both residential and

commercial markets.commercial markets. Negative impacts to marketability of real estates and real estate Negative impacts to marketability of real estates and real estate

investors’ satisfactioninvestors’ satisfaction Consumer Protection (??)Consumer Protection (??)

Impair mortgage marketsImpair mortgage markets Credit market ; increasing non-performing loansCredit market ; increasing non-performing loans SSecuritization ecuritization markets; future problemsmarkets; future problems

Caricature: http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/Z/q/1/mortgage_morning_after.jpgCaricature: http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/Z/q/1/mortgage_morning_after.jpg

Appraisal and Public InterestAppraisal and Public Interest

Public sector is the leading actor in real estate.Public sector is the leading actor in real estate. Central and local governments have extensive Central and local governments have extensive

authoritiesauthorities Appraisal requirements for public;Appraisal requirements for public;

Sales, Lease, Sales, Lease, establishment of establishment of servitude,servitude, Privatization of public properties, expropriation, Privatization of public properties, expropriation, Contracts on build-operate-transferContracts on build-operate-transfer Public private partnership (PPP) Public private partnership (PPP)

In the expropriation, the value of land may In the expropriation, the value of land may change depends on the decision of ;change depends on the decision of ; Value Appreciation CommissionValue Appreciation Commission Special Value Appreciation CommissionSpecial Value Appreciation Commission Expert witness (Keskin, 2003) Expert witness (Keskin, 2003)

Better Standards for Better Standards for Appraisal Appraisal

Good NewsGood News CMB has adopted international valuation CMB has adopted international valuation

standards as a regulation in 2006.standards as a regulation in 2006. Regulated appraisal activities in banking Regulated appraisal activities in banking

sector and capital markets.sector and capital markets. Bad news;Bad news;

Less effective rLess effective regulatory frameworkegulatory framework on on public properties’ appraisalpublic properties’ appraisal

MMarket culture and knowledgearket culture and knowledge (??) (??)

Problems in Housing Problems in Housing MarketMarket

Illegal BuildingsIllegal Buildings Permits to use buildings criterion, it is defined Permits to use buildings criterion, it is defined

that 67 out of 100 buildings are illegal in Turkey that 67 out of 100 buildings are illegal in Turkey (Turhan, 2008: 5-6).(Turhan, 2008: 5-6).

The number of irregular housing reached up to The number of irregular housing reached up to 2.200.000 in Turkey in early 2000s (Keleş, 2004: 2.200.000 in Turkey in early 2000s (Keleş, 2004: 560-561).560-561).

Cost of LandCost of Land In a typical housing construction (or In a typical housing construction (or

development projects) CoL is ranging between development projects) CoL is ranging between 30%-50% in the urban area30%-50% in the urban area

Absence of effective land management and land-Absence of effective land management and land-use regulationsuse regulations

Solving Housing ProblemSolving Housing Problem

Can Social Housing Solve the Can Social Housing Solve the Problem?Problem? Mission of the State.Mission of the State. Low-cost housing for middle and lower class peopleLow-cost housing for middle and lower class people Housing Development Administration produced 423.854 Housing Development Administration produced 423.854

housing unit between the period of 2003-2010housing unit between the period of 2003-2010 Sustainability?? (no secondary market for mortgage)Sustainability?? (no secondary market for mortgage)

What About Other Residentials? What About Other Residentials?

A MODEL SUGGESTION: A MODEL SUGGESTION: ESTABLISHMENT OF REAL ESTATE ESTABLISHMENT OF REAL ESTATE REGULATION AND SUPERVISION REGULATION AND SUPERVISION

AGENCYAGENCY

RationaleRationale Failures of solving the problems of;Failures of solving the problems of;

Housing,Housing, Land-use,Land-use, Urbanization,Urbanization, Real estate appraisal,Real estate appraisal, Protecting consumers and public benefit Protecting consumers and public benefit

etc. etc.

Customer Protection Customer Protection Conceptually, related to Conceptually, related to

Capital markets, banking and insurance.Capital markets, banking and insurance. In real estate In real estate

MMassiveassive transactions/unsophisticated investors/Information transactions/unsophisticated investors/Information asymmetryasymmetry

No (single/effective/financial market like)watchdog in the No (single/effective/financial market like)watchdog in the marketmarket

Particularly critical in residential and rural property transactions. Particularly critical in residential and rural property transactions. In Turkey consumers are unprotected In Turkey consumers are unprotected

IIncomplete ncomplete housing sales,housing sales, Real estate broker communications,Real estate broker communications, Mass-housing projects, Mass-housing projects, Land-use/development projects, Land-use/development projects, Cooperatives etc.Cooperatives etc.

Different Focus in Investor Different Focus in Investor ProtectionProtection

For fFor financially developed countriesinancially developed countries MMortgage market financialortgage market financial

transactions/products,transactions/products,

TurkeyTurkey RReal estate marketing/brokerage eal estate marketing/brokerage

activitiesactivities,, NNon-institutionally financing real estate on-institutionally financing real estate

transactionstransactions

Primary Expectations IPrimary Expectations I To issue regulations/standards for To issue regulations/standards for

Real estate Real estate brokerage/marketing/appraisal, and also brokerage/marketing/appraisal, and also housing financehousing finance

To enhance To enhance consumer protection, consumer protection, public interestpublic interest market efficiency,market efficiency,

To coordinate the authorized To coordinate the authorized government institutions based on the government institutions based on the above objectives.above objectives.

Primary Expectations IIPrimary Expectations II

To promote fair market practices, To promote fair market practices, To protect To protect unsophisticated investors,unsophisticated investors, To enhance appraisal profession,To enhance appraisal profession, To enhance primary and secondary mortgage To enhance primary and secondary mortgage

markets through incentives,markets through incentives, To develop policies for the management of To develop policies for the management of

public properties and urban area land public properties and urban area land shortage,shortage,

To develop policies for sustainable housing To develop policies for sustainable housing finance,finance,

To issue periodic public reports on real estate To issue periodic public reports on real estate sales/rent data, indexes and value-maps,sales/rent data, indexes and value-maps,

Primary Expectations IIIPrimary Expectations III Simplifying, consolidating and converging Simplifying, consolidating and converging

zoning practices,zoning practices, To oversee foreign real estate investments, To oversee foreign real estate investments, To increase and coordinate local/SROs To increase and coordinate local/SROs

authorities on regulatory/supervisory process,authorities on regulatory/supervisory process, To issue reports on the major developments,To issue reports on the major developments, To analyze the developments in land use To analyze the developments in land use

practices,practices, To publicly disclose their balance sheet, To publicly disclose their balance sheet,

policies and practices.policies and practices.

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONCarthago delenda est, (Carthage must be destroyed)Carthago delenda est, (Carthage must be destroyed)

CATO, Roman statesmanCATO, Roman statesman

LimitationsLimitations Public side doing business culture and political influence Public side doing business culture and political influence PrerequisitesPrerequisites

Suggestion may be helpful to discuss with a new Suggestion may be helpful to discuss with a new viewpoint of viewpoint of consumer protection consumer protection public interest and public interest and market efficiency market efficiency

problems of the Turkish real estate markets.problems of the Turkish real estate markets.

Thank you very much for your attention...

For discussion/more information

Adress: Capital Markets Board of Turkey, Eskişehir Yolu 8.Km No:156 06530 Ankara/Turkey

Phone: :(+90 312) 292 88 24 e-mail:ycoskun@spk.gov.tr

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