Presentation by Dr. Franck Debié – EP2025 Europe House, London, 1st September 2015

Five key global trends to 2030

1. Ageing continues and becomes global.

2. Globalisation of the economy continues and continues to be led by the US,

Europe and China. Global trade in goods may slow down, while services

and investment flows increase.

3. Technologies continue to empower individuals and to transform

established business models as well as social practices. Change

accelerates.

4. Climate change, growth of energy demand and global competition for

resources continue and potentially accelerate.

5. Interdependence of nations continues while multilateralism remains

fragile and the expansion of democracy decelerates.

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Key global trends to 2030

Global ageing Globalisation 2030

Energy demand Water scarcity 2030

Projected change in water scarcity by 2030

© International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank

Trends and uncertainties

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Trends and incertainties

Source: ESPAS report: ‘Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead?’ European Union, 2015 5

Three global revolutions

ESPAS report available on: http://espas.eu/orbis/ document/global-trends-2030-can-eu-meet-challenges-ahead

1. The global economic and technological revolution

2. The global social and democratic revolution

3. The global geo-political revolution

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The drivers of economic growth 2015-2030

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1

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3

1. Global economic and technological revolution

Growing Global Middle Classe

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1. Global economic and technological revolution

SLO

VAKIA

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COLOMBIA

1990 2000 1980

1970 1960 1950 1940

1913 2010

Legend: The map shows how the (mathematical) centre of gravity of

the world economy has changed. In 1 AD it was in the Middle East between the

Roman Empire and the Empire of

China. It then shifted north west, first gradually and then more markedly from 1800 onwards due to the first

two industrial revolutions and the rise

of the United States. It remained in

the North Atlantic until the start of

globalisation and the rapid rise of

China and of Asia in general. The

more northerly position compared

with the starting-point reflects the

substantial current weight of China

compared with the rest of Asia. The

predicted rise of India after 2030

could bring it back to its point of origin.

2025 SLOVAKIA

1820 1500

Year 1 of the Christian era

1000

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Centre of gravity of the world economy between 1 and 2025 AD

1. Global economic and technological revolution

NTIC 2.0

New Internet Information technologies

Massive Data x Hyper-speed

Cloud computing

Hyper connectivity

Big data

Virtual currencies

Drones

Mega-Algorythms

Global Open Sourcing

Multi-sensoral interfaces Ubiquitics 3 D printing

Hololenses

Artificial Cognitive processes

Artificial brain

Brain mimicking Artificially regulated biotopes

Converging technologies

Data-robots

Nano-robots Disruption of all business models

Intelligent objects Smart Home technologies Autonomous Vehicles

Bio-engineering

Synthetic Biology

Genetic engineering

Bio-hardware

Bio sensors Genomics ‘Enhanced Humans’

Graphene

Aquaponic Systems

New Materials Photonics

Bio-photonics

Semi-conductors

Bio-textiles

Post-electronic transmission

Graphene

Wearable technologies

Electricity Storage

Service revolution

Services 4.0

MOOCS

Ubiquitics

Crowd funding and artificial currencies

Paperless

Digital cognition

Open sourcing

Big data marketing ©EP2025 Long Trends Team European Parliament

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1. Global economic and technological revolution Multi-Tech Revolution

Autonomous Vehicles

Graphene

Massive Open Online Courses Virtual currencies

(Bitcoin)

3D printing

Source: European Parliament DG EPRS/STOA 2015 11

1. Global economic and technological revolution Multi-Tech Revolution

Smart home technologies

Wearable technologies

Aquaponic systems

Drones

Electricity storage: hydrogen

Source: European Parliament DG EPRS/STOA 2015 12

1. Global economic and technological revolution Multi-Tech Revolution

Source: Regional Innovation Scoreboard 2014 European Commission, DG for Enterprise and Industry 2014

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1. Global economic and technological revolution The innovation performance by regions

China (2030)

China (2013) India (2013)

India (2030)

Exports

Financial Outflows

GDP

capita

SSA (2013) EU, US (2013)

SSA (2030)

Exports/GDP

Fin. flows/GDP

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1. Global economic and technological revolution New landscape in capital markets

Note: Europe includes the EU27, EFTA, and EU candidate countries. Source: UNESCO

Investments in R&D Source: The World Bank, Golden Growth, Washington DC, 2012

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Source: ESPAS report: ‘Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead?’ European Union, 2015

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1. Global economic and technological revolution Investment Gap in Europe

Source: ESPAS report: ‘Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead?’ European Union, 2015

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1. Global economic and technological revolution Key questions

La croissance annuelle moyenne du PIB par habitant et le revenu disponible des ménages (1995-2011): Nombre moyen pondéré sur 26 pays de l'OCDE

Source: ‘Economic Policy Reforms 2015 – Going for Growth’ OECD, 2015

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2. Social revolution Unequal Distribution of Revenues

Source: ESPAS report: ‘Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead?’ European Union, 2015

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2. Social revolution Unemployment rates by qualification category in the EU, 2000-2020

Source: The World Bank, Golden Growth, Washington DC, 2012

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2. Social revolution Efficient public spending?

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2. Social revolution Key issues

■ So far, the European Union has not

succeeded in reintegrating the low-skilled workers and other social groups most affected by globalisation. It is even less prepared for the coming technological revolution, which could dramatically widen the gap between ‘winners’ and ‘losers’. ■ To avoid increasing social divisions, the

European Union with its Member States — each within its respective competences — should focus collectively on: less rigid labour markets, more inclusive education systems, the reduction of barriers to initiative and competition and greater investment in healthcare.

■ For citizens affected by or at risk of

total exclusion, measures should equip them with the skills demanded in the labour market and generally promote their insertion in active community life. ■ Before 2030, migration policies must

be re-framed, with a view to a more economically sustainable, humane and carefully managed migration strategy.

Source: ESPAS report: ‘Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead?’ European Union, 2015

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?

3. Geopolitical revolution The end of the End of the Cold War

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3. Geopolitical revolution Non-linear power shifts

Source: Report for ESPAS ‘Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World’, Paris, ISS, 2012; International Futures Forecasts with the Strategic Foresight Project of the Atlantic Council and the US National Intelligence Council. Data from Frederick S. Pardee Centre for International Futures.

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3. Geopolitical revolution Europe’s geopolitical context

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3. Geopolitical revolution US & China: geopolitical context

Long Term Military

Spending in PPP and

international ranking

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3. Geopolitical revolution

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Key questions

Source: ESPAS report: ‘Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead?’ European Union, 2015

3. Geopolitical revolution

Conclusions

Economic catch-up is urgently required to avert a

lost decade

Business as usual’ in Europe will be unacceptable

to citizens

Need to act more effectively in meeting global

challenges

Better strategic thinking and foresight at

European level

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