1

IDR 2013IDR 2013Policy Implications for Developing 

and Industrialized Countries

Nobuya HaraguchiUNIDO

18 March 2014

Level of Employment 0.6

Early industriesFood and beverage

0.4

0.5

io Wearing

0.2

0.3

EP r

ati

Textiles

Wearing apparel

0.1

0

3

Source: UNIDO

Female employment within manufacturingFemale employment within manufacturing sector

Female employment share by income group and manufacturing industry, 2005

Middle-income countriesLow-income countries

p y y g p g y,

4

Source: UNIDO

0.6

Food and beverage

0.5

Food and beverage

0.4

Textiles

0.3

Wearing apparel

0 1

0.2

0

0.1

01000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Source: UNIDO

Effects of Country Specific Conditions on DevelopmentDevelopment

0 80.9

1

0 40.50.60.70.8

00.10.20.30.4

0

6

Source: UNIDO

Correlations between the country-specific conditions of labour intensive industries and some business conditions

Unit labor cost Rule of law Roads

Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient

Food and beverages 0 20 1 80 0 07Food and beverages -0.20 1.80 0.07

Textiles -0.22 4.42 0.94

Wearing apparel -0.65 3.62 0.72

Source: UNIDO

Development patterns: value added, employment and labour productivityemployment and labour productivity

Labour productivity

Demand/ Value Added

Employment

8

Source: UNIDO

Where do we find the evidence of de-industrialization?(Large countries)

MVA per capita growth rate

(Large countries)

1.4

1.6

1.8

Start growing slower than the economy-wide average

0 8

1

1.2

ticity

y g

0.4

0.6

0.8

Elast

‐0.2

0

0.2

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1000

0

1100

0

1200

0

1300

0

1400

0

1500

0

1600

0

1700

0

1800

0

1900

0

2000

0

2100

0

2200

0

2300

0

2400

0

2500

0

2600

0

2700

0

2800

0

2900

0

3000

0

3100

0

3200

0

3300

0

3400

0

3500

0

3600

0

3700

0

3800

0

3900

0

4000

0

i ( dj d)GDP per capita (PPP adjusted)

Source: UNIDO

Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD

Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD

12

Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD

Speed of structural change6

s

4

5

tal-

goods

io

UK

2

3

ods/C

apit

added r

ati

USA

Germany

Japan

1

2

um

er-

goo

valu

e a Japan

Korea, Rep

0

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2008

Consu

13

Source: UNIDO estimate based on Hoffmann (1958) and UNIDO Database

14

(in 1 000)

Manufacturing-related employment in RoK

(in 1,000)

5 000

6,000

3,000

4,000

5,000Other Services

Business Services

Transport

0

1,000

2,000 Wholesale

Manufacturing

01995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

12 000

14,000 Manufacturing-related employment in Germany

8,000

10,000

12,000

Other Services

Business Services

Transport

2,000

4,000

6,000 Transport

Wholesale

Manufacturing

15

Source: UNIDO0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

h k !Thank you!

17