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Consideraciones de la Circulación Oceánica y Atmosférica
M. En C. Julio Nemorio Martínez SánchezSubgerencia de Pronóstico a Mediano y Largo Plazo
1
XXXII Foro de Perspectivas Climáticas en la República Mexicana
Ciudad de México, viernes 08 de junio de 2018
Altura Geopotencial 500 mb
Presión a nivel del mar
OLR
Oscilación del Atlántico Norte
Fase Positiva
Mayo 2018
Mayo 1956: 2.21
Mayo 1963: 2.16
Mayo 1992: 2.63
Mayo 2018: 2.12
2018 Ene Feb Mar Abr May
NAO 1.44 1.58 -0.93 1.24 2.12
1) Junio 2) Julio 3) Agosto
(-)
(+)
Temperatura Superficial del Mar
Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
Mayo 2018
Temperatura Superficial del Mar
Eastern Pacific Warm Pool
Mayo 2018
Temperatura Superficial del Mar
Atlantic Main Development Region MDR
Mayo 2018
Temperatura Superficial del Mar
Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico
Mayo 2018
Temperatura Superficial del Mar
El Niño-Oscilación del Sur
Mayo 2018
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.
NEP
EEPSEP
1) Northern Equatorial Pacific (NEP)
180°-85°W, 2°N-10°N
2) Southeastern Equatorial Pacific (SEP)
150°W-85°W, 10°S-2°S
3) Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP)
180°-85°W, 2°S-2°N
Tropical Pacific (TP)
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.
Asymmetric Index (Ia)
Ia = (PNEP – PSEP) / Pm
Ia > 0, ITCZ to the north
Ia < 0, ITCZ to the south
Double ITCZ Index (Id)
Id = (PNEP – 2PEEP + PSEP) / Pm
Negative Id, single precipitation maximum at the Equator
Positive Id, double ITCZ
P = boreal spring precipitation rate averaged in the respective domain
Pm = 1/3 (PNEP + PEEP + PSEP)
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.
A: 1983, 1987, 1992, 1998, 2010, 2016 (6). Single ITCZ at the Equator. Strong El Niño years.
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.
B: 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007,
2013, 2014, 2015 (20). Maximum precipitation anomalies to the north of the Equator.
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.
C: 1984, 1986, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 (13). Maximum precipitation
anomalies to the south of the Equator.
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.
Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).
Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.