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PRESENT AND FUTURE MARKET SITUATION FOR BATTERIES
Information for growth
Christophe PILLOT
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
Frankfurt, GERMANY30th June – 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
OUTLINE
1. Worldwide Rechargeable battery market 2008
2. Main trends 2008- 2020
3. HEV batteries in the total market in 2008
4. EV, HEV & PHEV segmentation
5. HEV market by competitor and by area
6. Forecasts by 2015 & 2020
2ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Mill
ion
cel
ls
The worldwide rechargeable battery market, Million cells, 1994-2008
Ni-Cd Ni-MH Li-Ion Li-P
3ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
M U
S$
Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 1994-2008
NiCd NiMH Li-ion Li-P
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2008
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
M U
S$
Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, by application 2000-2008
HEV
Others
Power tools
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
44ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Cellular Phones
34%
Portable PCs24%
Power tools13%
Others22%
HEV7%
Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, by application 2000-2008
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN MARKET SHARE (IN VALUE), 2008
Japanese market share (value) decreases : from 82 % of the market in 2001 to less than 75% in 2003 & 56% in 2008
JAPANESE SALES5.1 Billions $ in 2008(07/08 growth : +13%)
CHINESE SALES2.3 B$ in 2008(07/08 growth : +10%)
REST OF THE WORLD< 0.1 B$ in 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Market share by country, %
KOREAN SALES1.8 B$ in 2008(07/08 growth : +13%)
5ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
BATTERY INDUSTRY IN 2008
Sanyo
53%
MBI
8%
BYD
24%
SAFT
8%
Others
7%
Sanyo
23%
Panasonic
EV
29%MBI
9%
GP
14%
Yuasa
10%
Others
15%
NiCd: 0.8 Billion US$Annual Growth = - 16%
NiMH: 1.2 Billion US$Annual Growth = 0%
Li-ion & Polymer: 7.2 Billion US$ Annual Growth = +20%
Sony19%
Sanyo30%
MBI17%
SDI17%
LG9%
Others15%
Sanyo21%
BYD11%
Sony15%SDI
16%
LG7%
MBI3%
Lishen5%
Maxell9%
Others13%
CYLINDRICAL CELLS
3.1 B US$+35%
PRISMATIC & POL CELLS4.1 B US$
+6%
Sanyo25%
Sony16%
SDI17%
MBI6%
LG Chemical8%
BYD6%
Lishen4%
Maxell5%
Others13%
6ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
NICD IN 2008MAIN APPLICATION: POWER TOOLS
Power Tools49%
Household devices
3%
Toys7%
Security lighting8%
Others20%
E-bike, e-scooters13%
NiCd by application worldwide, % in value, 2008 All the market segments are stable
or decreased a little except e-bike which is increasing.
Strong competition with
o NiMH for Toys, cordless Phones, Household devices
o Li-ion for power tools
What will be the next step?
1 050 Million NiCd cells800 M$
CAGR 2003/2008-4% per year in volume
-6% per year in value
7ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
NIMH IN 2008MAIN APPLICATION: HEV
Cordless Phones
11%
Retail: RC cars,Toys,
Household, DSC, 27%
HEV53%
Others9%
NiMH battery by applications, worldwide, % in value, 2008
1 100 M NiMH cells1.2 B$
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
200020012002200320042005200620072008
% o
f H
EV b
atte
ry in
NIM
H r
even
ues
M$
NiMH battery market worldwide in value% for HEV application
Others HEV % of HEV in NiMH sales
CAGR 2003/2008+2% per year in Volume
+8% per year in value
8ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LI-ION IN 2008MAIN APPLICATION: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
M $
Li-ion & Polymer Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2008
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
3 100 M Li-ion & Polymer cells
7 200 M$
CAGR 2003/2008:+22% per year in volume
+17% per year in value
9ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
-
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
M $
Li-ion & Polymer Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2008
Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3Games Others
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
BATTERY MAIN TRENDS
Regulation trends Products banned, cyclability, durability
Economical trendsPrice decreases, Investment,
Technical trendsNew technologies, higher capacities, higher power, improving reliability & performances for raw materials,
Geographic AreaUS - Western Europe - Japan -China - India - Latin America -Eastern Europe - Asia Pacific -Middle East - Row
Applications trends Mobile -
Portable PC – VEHICLES - Digital Cameras - PDA - Power Tools - Toys -Cordless Phones - Home Appliances -Camcorders - Security systems - RC Cars – Video games – MP3 - ...
10ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
NEW MATERIALS FOR HIGHER CAPACITY OR LOWER PRICE
INCREASING ENERGY & POWER Ni & Co LME PRICES
SOURCE: LME, JUNE 2009
Source: Ovonics, March 2008
NiMH:
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$/k
g
Ni
Co
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
11ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
BATTERY RAW MATERIALS MARKET – 2008
ELECTROLYTE
12 500 tons
CATHODE
37 000 tons
Active Materials
ANODE
22 000 tons
active materials
SEPARATORS
265 M m²
LiCoO2LiMPO4
LiMn2O4
Li[NixMnyCoz]O2
NCM
Li[NixCozMnAl]O2
NCA
Graphite
Si
Sn
SiO2-Si
ASAHI
TONEN
CELGARD
UBE
ENTEK
UBE
CHIELMitsubishi
Tomiyama
12ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
SAFETY ISSUE
Battery Makers
OEMBattery recall
Date Cost
Matsushita Nokia 46 M cells 08/07 100–200 M$
Sanyo Mitsubishi 1.3 M cells 12/06 35 M $
SonyDell, Apple,
Toshiba, Lenovo,...
10 M Packs
65 M cells2006 430 M$
.....
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Op
era
tin
g p
rofi
t/R
eve
nu
e
RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT
Sanyo
MBI
BYD
SGS
Sony
NEC
Maxell
LGC
SDI
Average
More & more incidents & accidents
All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned
Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability
13ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
PARAMETERS IMPACTING THE BATTERY MARKET FORECATS
Electronic devices market is increasing
Requiring more & more energy
Electronic devices usage is increasing
HEV market is increasing Government incentives (CO2
Emission, ...)
Gasoline Prices
New Diesel Hybrid in Europe
SAFETY issues for both portable & HEV Li-ion batteries
Raw materials price increase: Ni for NiMH & Co for Li-ion
Less Investment
Profit are low even negative in case of recall
ASP will decrease
Li-ion Next Step?
HEV market
Gasoline price decrease (??)
8 to 10 years of battery life is required
Safety problems, accident, recall
DRIVERS LIMITERS
14ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2000-2020
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
US
$
Rechargeable battery market by chemistryM US$, 2000-2020 (PACK LEVEL)
NiCd NiMH Li-ion Li-P
15ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2008-2020 , AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
US
$
Rechargeable battery market by ApplicationsM US$, 2000-2020 (PACK LEVEL)
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Power tools Others Automotive
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
WHY HEV?
Source :Energy Information Administration, US Government
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
US
$ /
bar
rel
Price of the WTI barrel of oil, US $
Source :http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
CO2 density in the atmosphere increase
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007,
Synthesis Report p38
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mill
ion
bar
rels
per
day
Petroleum consumption worldwide 1960-2008
16ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV SEGMENTATION
EV & HEV MARKET
EV25 kWh
HEV0.6-2 kWh batteries
MICROHEV*
MILD HEV
MEDIUMHEV
FULL HEV
P HEV5 kWh
batteries
CITROEN C3TOYOTA VITZ
GM Saturn VueGM AURA
GM MALIBUHONDA ACCORD
HONDA CIVICINSIGHT
TOYOTA PRIUSTOYOTA CAMRY
FORD ESCAPEFORD FUSION
MILANGM YUKONGM TAHOE
NISSAN ALTIMA
> 144 v
… - 14 v
14 – 42 v
42 – 144 v
MICRO MILD MEDIUM FULL
HYBRID LEVELS:
HEV
P-HEV
EV
17
*Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV MARKET
0,0%
0,1%
0,2%
0,3%
0,4%
0,5%
0,6%
0,7%
0,8%
0,9%
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
Mill
ion
HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide,2000 - 2008
TOYOTA OTHERS %
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
18
Less than 1% of vehicle sold worldwide in 2008 was Hybrid
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE
AVERAGE WW
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pen
etra
tio
n o
f h
ybri
ds
in t
he
glo
bal
e s
ales
Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000-2008
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2008
Total HEV Vehicles:More than 515 000 units in 2008
SOURCE : TOYOTA, HONDA, GM, FORD, CHRYSLER
19
TOYOTA
HONDAFORD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
HEV sold per year, M units per car manufacturers, 2000-2008
TOYOTA HONDA FORD
GM NISSAN
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2008
20
USA
JAPANEUROPE
OTHERS
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
Mill
ion
HEV sold per year, M units per country,2000-2008
USA JAPAN EUROPE OTHERS
Total HEV Vehicles:More than 515 000 units in 2008
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
WHY HEV MARKET IS SO SMALL IN EUROPE?
SOURCE: HTTP://WWW.EIA.DOE.GOV
Thanks to lower taxes, Diesel is very popular in Europe
Gasoline price is 3 times higher in Europe than USA
SOURCE: AVICENNE COMPILATION
San Fransisco, July 2006
21ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum
USA cost
of
Gazoline
EUROPEAN & USA TAXES FOR GASOLINE
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
USA
UK
Germany
France
Norway
% of Taxes in the Gasoline cost for end users
% of taxes in Gasoline cost for end usersJanuary 2009
Source: AVICENNE Compilation
22ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV FORECASTS UP TO 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Nu
mb
er o
f H
EV s
old
wo
rld
wid
e (
Mill
ion
)
HEV(2) sold, in million units, worldwide, 2005 - 2015 AVICENNE June 2009
IIT (march 2008 & 2009)
Mc KINSEY (2008)
AAB (May 2008)
Freedonia (Dec 07)
Freedonia Dec 06
Deutsche Bank (June 2008)
Toyota, 2008
BOSCH (September 2008)
Sanyo
TIAX (B. Barnett, march 2008)
HEV MARKET IN 2015 : > 2 Million units (1)
23
(2) HEV & hybrid excluding micro hybrids
(1) Assumptions:- 76 M vehicle sold WW in 2015- 2.8% Hybrids
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pen
etra
tio
n o
f h
ybri
ds
in t
he
glo
bal
e s
ales
Penetration of hybrids (2) in the global sales, 2000-2015
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE
AVERAGE WW
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
NIMH BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ca
pa
cit
y (m
Ah
) fo
r N
iMH
ce
ll -
Ind
ex
10
0 in
19
96
NiMH Capacity is increasing Exemple of AA NiMH
(index 100 in 1996)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
NiM
H C
ost
pe
r k
Wh
-In
de
x 1
00
in
19
96
NiMH cost per kWh is decreasing(index 100 in 1996)
PRIUS I PRIUS II
Capacity 6.5 Ah 6.5 Ah
Cells 228 (38 * 6) 168 (28 * 6)
Voltage 273.6 v 201.6 v
Specific power 1000 W/kg 1300 W/kg
Specific energy 46 Wh/kg 46 Wh/kg
Total power/HEV 36 kW 37.8 kW
Total energy/HEV 1778 Wh 1310 Wh
24ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
NIMH BATTERIES FOR HEV IN 2008
PEVE SANYO MBI COBASYS JCS
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N
TOYOTA 3
LEXUS 3
HONDA 3 3
FORD 3
NISSAN 3
GM 3 3
CHRYSLER 3
DEV
ELO
PM
ENT VW u
DAIMLER u
BMW u
PSA u
CHERY u
25
Thanks to TOYOTA, Panasonic EV, got more than 85% of the HEV battery market and a large know-how
3 Supply - u Development
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LI-ION BATTERIES DEVELOPMENTS FOR HEV, P-HEV & EV
Li-ion is THE solution for the future
BUT, SAFETY & COST issues
Lot of technical solutions (NMC, NCA, LFP, LCO...)
Lot of EXPENSIVE Developments
Lot of JV, partnerships etc...
PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion
Volts 201.6 201.6
Cells 168 (28*6) 56
Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah
Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh
Weight 38 kg 25 kg
T°C Range + +
Cyclability + ++
Safety
Cost
26
TOYOTA NISSAN HONDA FORD MITSUBISHI BYD AUTO BOSCH CONTINENTAL JC
PANASONIC PEVE
NEC AESC
GSY JV (HEV) LEJ (EV)
SDI SB LiMotive
SAFT JV
BYD HEV, EV
ENAX Partner
MAGNA Partner
JOINT VENTURE & STRONG PARTNERSHIP
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LI-ION BATTERIES DEVELOPMENTS
Li-ion
TOYO
TA
NIS
SAN
HO
ND
A
GM
FOR
D
DA
IMLE
R
CH
RYS
LER
VW
MIT
SUB
ISH
I
HYU
ND
AI
BM
W
BYD
Au
to
PSA
SUB
AR
U
MA
ZDA
SUZU
KI
THIN
K
TESL
A
PIN
INFA
RIN
A
SAIC
FISK
ER
Sanyo HEV* Tesla PHEV*
PEVE
AESC (Nec-Nissan)
JC-SAFT HEV*
JV GSY - HONDA
A123 PHEV* HEV* HEV* HEV*
MBI EV*
LG PHEV* P-HEV*
LEJ (GSY-Mitsubishi)
LiMotive (SDI-BOSCH)HEV*
PHEV*PHEV* HEV* EV*
ENAX - CONTINENTAL
MAGNA
GAIA PHEV*
TOSHIBA
BYD
SK PHEV*
BATSCAP (BOLLORE-EDF)
OTHERSLiTecEnax
ACP/E-One
EnerdelACP/E-
One
27
* Not confirmed
HEV
P-HEV
EV
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
NIMH VS. LI-ION:ENERGY & POWER COST
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Battery Price in $/kWhPACK LEVEL
NiMH
Li-ion
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
HEV 2008
HEV 2015
Battery Price in $/kW PACK LEVEL
NiMH Li-ion
CELL level Vs. Pack level – Energy Vs. Power cost - Industrial Vs. Target pricing
28ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
NIMH & LI-ION BATTERY FOR HEVMARKET FORECASTS (2002-2015)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mill
ion
Un
its
NiMH & Li-ion cells sold per year, Million units, worldwide, 2002-2015
NiMH Li-ion
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
$ U
S, M
illio
n
NiMH & Li-ion market for HEV, Million $US, worldwide, 2002-2015
NiMH Li-ion
29ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
SHORT TERMHEV IMPACT ON NIMH BATTERY MARKET
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
M U
S$
NIMH Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 2000-2015
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
M U
S$
NiMH Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 2000-2015
HEV
Others
THE NIMH BATTERY MARKET IS
INCREASING THANKS TO HEV
IN 2015, 70% OF THE NIMH BATTERIES
WILL BE SOLD FOR HEV
30ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS DEVICESAVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST
Cellular Phones(to = 1994) Portable PCs
(to = 1994)
Power Tools(to = 2004)
AVICENNE (1)
to=2010
AVICENNE(2)
to=2010
IIT(3)
(to=2009)
AAB(4)
(to=2009)
TIAX (5)
(to=2009)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Li-i
on
pen
etra
tio
n in
ele
ctro
nic
dev
ices
& H
EV
YEARS
(1) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario(2) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario(3) IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar, Slide 5(4) AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2008(5) TIAX, Brian BARNETT, Ph.D, Testifying Expert for University of Texas , March 2008
31ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LONG TERMHEV BATTERY FORECASTS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
Nu
mb
er o
f H
EV s
old
wo
rld
wid
e (‘
00
0)
HEV market, million units, worldwide, 2005-2020
HEV (million)
% of Li-ion - Relevant Scenario
% of Li-ion - Optimistic Scenario
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
% o
f Li
-io
n b
atte
ry in
HEV
M$
HEV battery market worldwide, million $2000-2020
NiMH
Li-ion
Penetration of Li-ion in HEV (%)
32
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LONG TERMEV, PHEV & HEV BATTERY FORECASTS
33
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2010 2015 2020
M U
S$
AUTOMOTIVE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET M US$, Worldwide, 2005-2020
(Pack level)
HEV P-HEV EV
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
M W
h
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 - 2020
HEV P-HEV EV
Assumptions2 M HEV in 20153.5 M in 202035% Li-ion in 2020
0.1 M P-HEV in 20150.4 M in 2020100% Li-ion
16 000 EV in 201550 000 in 2020100% Li-ion
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LONG TERMEV, PHEV & HEV BATTERY FORECASTS
34
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2010 2015 2020
M U
S$
AUTOMOTIVE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET M US$, Worldwide, 2005-2020
(Pack level)
HEV P-HEV EV
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
M W
h
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 - 2020
HEV P-HEV EV
Assumptions2 M HEV in 20153.5 M in 202035% Li-ion in 2020
0.1 M P-HEV in 20150.4 M in 2020100% Li-ion
0,4 M EV in 20151,4 M in 2020100% Li-ion
ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
TAKEAWAYS
The Hybrid vehicle is the only mass market choice for electric traction cars today
Toyota opened this market and earn money with HEV models
The hybrid vehicles is now a niche market: in 2015 we believe more than 1.6 million Hybrid cars will be sold worldwide
The battery technology is today the NiMH, we don’t expect the Li-ion to be significant on the HEV mass market
P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion
1 M EV represent roughly 10 B US $ for batteries or 20 MWh or 40 000 tones of cathode materials!
HEV, P-HEV & EV will change the gasoline dogma in the car Industry. In the next decade, we are expecting one of the world most important disruption in the car industry
Then, EV could change totally the battery market on a long term basis.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2010 2015 2020
M U
S$
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET M US$, Worldwide, 2005-2020
PACK LEVEL
HEV Batteries P-HEV BatteriesEV Batteries Others
35ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009
SOURCE : EV, PHEV & HEV WORLDWIDE MARKET 2008-2020 - BATTERY IS THE KEY, AVICENNE, JUNE 2009
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
CONTACT
Christophe Pillot
Phone + 33 -1 - 47 78 46 00Fax + 33 - 1 - 47 78 46 01
[email protected] our Web Site : www.avicenne.com
SEE YOU IN CANNES NEXT OCTOBER 2009
www.batteriesevent.info
36ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES– Frankfurt, 30th June - 2nd July 2009