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PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST 2009 A satisfactory year in the circumstances

PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

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Page 1: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION

YEAR TO 29 AUGUST 2009

A satisfactory year in the circumstances

Page 2: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Overview

Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45%

Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45%

Full year DPS 23.0p (2008:23.0p) unchanged

Profit reduction entirely in Agriculture, nearly all in Fertiliser

Gearing reduced to 65% despite £4.3m acquisition

Results down due to fertiliser pricing 1

Page 3: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Divisional Structure

2

Revenue £255m (2008:£276m) Operating profit £6.0m (2008:£11.7m) Animal Feed

UK Dairy, beef and sheep compound and blended animal feeds

UK Speciality feed (“Aminomax”)

UK/ USA / Germany Feed blocks (“Crystalyx”, “Smartlic”) Fertiliser

UK Standard fertiliser

UK Speciality fertiliser (AVAIL)

Agriculture retailing UK farm supplies / farm machinery / oil distribution

Revenue £79m (2008:£86m) Operating profit £2.3m (2008:£2.0m) Flour Mills – 230,000 tonnes

Top 3 independent UK flour miller

Revenue £16m (2008:£11m) Operating profit £1.4m (2008:£1.1m) Nuclear and petrochemicals

Small, profitable UK and German business, with increasing strategic value

Agriculture

Food

Engineering

Leading agriculture and flour businesses

Page 4: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

16.0p

18.0p19.0p

23.0p 23.0p

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

47.7p

59.7p56.0p

108.7p

50.4p

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

£6.1m

£7.3m

£6.1m

£12.8m

£7.0m

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Carr’s Five Year Record

3

*excludes non-recurring items and amortisation of intangible assets

Overall, a good 2 years

£192.1m

£242.6m £252.8m

£372.3m£350.0m

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Revenue £m Profit before tax* £m

Adjusted earnings per share* (p)

Dividends per share (p)

Page 5: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Ron Wood

Finance Director

Page 6: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Income Statement

2009 2008

Revenue£m

Op. Profit

£m

Revenue £m

Op. Profit

£m

Agriculture 255.0 6.1 275.8 11.8

Food 79.0 2.3 85.6 2.0

Engineering 15.9 1.4 10.7 1.1

Other 0.1 (0.9) 0.2 (1.0)

350.0 8.9 372.3 13.9

Non-recurring items 0.1

Pension costs (1.6) (1.1)

Associate & JV’s (PAT) 1.0 1.6

Operating profit 8.3 14.5

Interest (1.3) (1.6)

PBT 7.0 12.9

EPS (p)

Adjusted EPS (p)*

50.4

50.4

92.7

108.7

DPS (p) 23.0 23.0

5

Year ended August

*excludes non-recurring items and amortisation of intangible assets

Page 7: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Cash Flow

2009 2008

£m

£m

Operating profit 7.3 12.9

Depreciation/amortisation 3.5 3.5

Working capital outflow (2.7) (10.6)

Interest paid (1.3) (1.6)

Tax paid (3.0) (0.6)

Other non-cash items 1.8 (0.6)

From operating activities 5.6 3.0

Used in investing activities (6.6) (2.8)

From financing activities 10.0 0.4

Net cash increase 9.0 0.6

Opening cash 0.1 (0.5)

Closing cash 9.1 0.1

Debt balances (28.4) (17.5)

Net debt (19.3) (17.4)

6

Year ended August

Page 8: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Summarised Balance Sheet

29 August 09

£m

30 August 08

£m

Non-current assets 44.6 40.9

Current assets 77.4 86.7

Current liabilities (46.9) (70.1)

Non-current liabilities (41.8) (29.9)

Net assets 33.3 27.6

Minority interests – equity (3.4) (2.6)

Equity shareholders’ funds 29.9 25.0

Net debt 19.3 17.4

Interest cover 5.6 x 8.0 x

Gearing 64.7% 69.8%

Net assets per share 340p 298p

Pension deficit (gross) £14.7m £16.6m

7

Page 9: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

MACRO BACKDROP

Chris Holmes

CEO

Page 10: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Key Macro Drivers for Carr’s

Activity Key Cost Inputs Key Demand Driver

Agriculture

Food

Engineering

Animal Feed Fertiliser Agricultural supplies Flour Nuclear and petrochemical

Feed wheat, proteins, molasses (etc) Nitrogen, phosphate, potash N/A Milling wheat Steel

Milk price Milk price and wheat price Overall farming profitability Volatility in wheat prices c.£1bn p.a. British Nuclear Fuels spend/oil price Nuclear plant build (global)

Food

9

Page 11: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Demand for Meat Products

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1975 1985 1995 2003 2015 2030

Millio

n T

on

ne

s

More developed regions Less developed regions

Macro Backdrop: Global Agriculture

Global food market being driven by

Rising population

Increased standards of living

Move to a “western” diet in Asia

Rising end product prices driving farming industry to

Improve yields

Improve animal welfare

Improve quality

10

Source: United Nations 2009

Source: United Nations 2009

Strong long run macro drivers

World Population Prospects

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hu

ma

n P

op

ula

tio

n (

billio

ns

)

More developed regions Less developed regions

Page 12: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Agriculture – Farm Gate Milk Price

11

• Higher milk prices from October 2007 but falling from January 2009

• Lower milk prices cause uncertainty and lower fertiliser use

• Milk price appears to have bottomed out

Average Annual Milk Price

24.4724.87

21.95

19.26

18.30

16.91

19.13

17.05

18.01

18.45 18.46

17.94

20.66

25.91

23.64

15.00

17.00

19.00

21.00

23.00

25.00

27.00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Pe

nc

e P

er

Lit

re

PPL

Page 13: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Agriculture – Wheat Prices

12

Feed Wheat Prices August 2006 - October 2009

-

50

100

150

200

250

Aug-0

6

Sep-0

6

Oct-

06

Nov-0

6

Dec-0

6

Jan-0

7

Feb-0

7

Mar-

07

Apr-

07

May-0

7

Jun-0

7

Jul-07

Aug-0

7

Sep-0

7

Oct-

07

Nov-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jan-0

8

Feb-0

8

Mar-

08

Apr-

08

May-0

8

Jun-0

8

Jul-08

Aug-0

8

Sep-0

8

Oct-

08

Nov-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jan-0

9

Feb-0

9

Mar-

09

Apr-

09

May-0

9

Jun-0

9

Jul-09

Aug-0

9

Sep-0

9

Oct-

09

Month

£

Feed Wheat Price £/T Milling Wheat Price £/T

• Fall in wheat price facilitated price decreases in animal feeds

• High yield harvest in 2008 resulted in use of home grown cereals in 2009

• Lower demand for fertiliser as a result of lower output prices (grain and milk)

Page 14: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Fertiliser Price Movements

Sept 06 - Nov 09

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Sep-0

6

Dec-

06

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep-0

7

Dec-

07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-0

8

Dec-

08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-0

9

Date

Co

st

(£)

pe

r T

on

ne

POTASH (MOP)

PHOSPHATE

(DAP/MAP)

NITROGEN

(CAN)

20.10.10

(S/PRICE)

Agriculture – Fertiliser Raw Materials

Exceptional sharp price deflation of fertiliser raw materials

Weak demand for fertiliser caused by falling prices and uncertainty

Carr’s inventory devalued to market prices

Volatile 24 months 13

Page 15: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Food

A better year

Top quality flour milling

Extensive R and D programme

Customers include Warburtons, United Biscuits, Greggs

Low risk business with potential to grow

Product innovation

Strategic value

14

Page 16: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Engineering

Pressure Vessels

Produce vessels for petrochemical, oil and gas industries

High skills base

Nuclear

Global energy programme

Expanded remote handling equipment business - Wälischmiller

Excellent gross margins

Tier 2 supplier on decommissioning contracts

15

Page 17: PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRESENTATION YEAR TO 29 AUGUST … · Overview Pre-tax profit £7.0m (2008:£12.9m) down 45% Fully diluted EPS 50.3p (2008:91.2p) down 45% Full year DPS 23.0p

Outlook

Agriculture

Fertiliser margin improvement a priority

New value added fertiliser product - AVAIL

AminoMax USA

Global growth in Carr’s feed blocks

Food

Margin improvement a priority

Engineering

New contract opportunities

Improvement in fertiliser, otherwise broadly stable

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