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Predictive Media Buying - a Programmatic
Approach to offline lead generation
1
2
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents
What do we do? • World first, disruptive solutions in the marketing and media
industries
• Providing efficiency gains and profit improvements in the tens of millions of Rands per year
• Known for tailor made, extremely accurate, proven approach to optimising marketing budgets and growing business
How? • The largest purely analytical media agency in Africa (40+
employees, offices in Cape Town, Johannesburg and Nairobi)
• A reputation for ingenuity and innovation as a result of:
• an average of 2.5 degrees per analyst
• consulting experience in over 50 countries
• highly experienced senior
• the brightest graduates from around Africa
• Level 2 BBBEE rating
Incline
Our clients • Industries Serviced
• Insurance (short and long term)
• Banking
• Retail Credit
• NGO’s
• Predominantly South African but have clients in the Middle East and Africa
Assist clients with Design and optimisation across all stages of the growth and account lifecycle:
• Direct marketing/media campaigns
• Credit Risk
• Account management
• Client communications
• Development of flexible cost effective easily implementable solutions
• Integration of solutions with existing infrastructure
Television42%
Other Above the Line11%
SMS campaigns18%
Digital campaigns11%
Cold Modelled Leads18%
Sales potential (typical Insurance)
Far more scalable than any other
marketing channel
Above The Line Media is …
POPI friendly
Doesn’t require customer data
Is very relevant in emerging markets
R100-
R300
R150+
R50-
R120
At high scale, a very cheap form of hot
leads & overall cost of acquisition
BUT : Historically, Media ROI has been difficult to quantify and impossible to predict results
What if we could predict what media placements would get us what volume & quality at what cost?
6
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents
What do I mean by Programmatic Approach? Traditional offline media planning is still similar to the approaches used
last century. Major advances in digital marketing are used as examples of
how much more modern media planning is these days but the truth is,
that science is typically applied only to online and direct channels
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_planning for example refers predominantly
to measures such as reach, cost per point, etc. which as measures have
been shown to be unreliable and only useful in the absence of more modern
data science data and techniques
The Programmatic Approach is a modern means to planning, executing and analyzing media
campaigns using
– Modern Data Science Analysis principles
– Modern technology to enable key steps in the processes
and informed and influenced by direct and digital marketing advances in knowledge and technology
Advantages achieved with Programmatic Approach
Reduced costs
• Improved predictiveness allows better and more consistent buying decisions
Accurate
Forecasting
• Long term media spend planning enabled and aligned to sales operations gearing
Effective
Monitoring
• Technology enabled real-time monitoring -immediate reactions
• Media owners kept “honest”
Scheduling
• Technology enabled scheduling improves engagement with media owners
Cross channel
synergies
• Accurate comparisons across channels allows full channel co-ordination
Modern Marketing Key Principles
Plan
• Strategy
• Test and
learn
Target
• Actualise
Strategy
• Data
• Indicators
Execute
• Operations
Excellence
• Time of the
essence
• Technology
Enabled
Monitor
• Operations
Negation
• React
quickly
• Technology
Enabled
Analyse
• Clean test
results
• Build
models
• Qualify
learnings
10
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents
Traditional Media Planning & Targeting **
** taken from 2012
Outcome: 20% correlation from GRP to
responses per advert
Typical Result
• Real life example, nearly 50% of leads sourced (via a TV campaign of R1.1 mil) never even attempted
Traditional Executing
• Disconnect between Marketing and Sales Operations activity
• No link to other online and offline marketing activities
Volume
Responders 9 721
Total Calls 5 025
Contactable 3 685
Right Party Contact 3 522
Sale 689
Traditional Monitoring
• Typical buying spec:
• GRP
• LSM
• Age
• Gender
• TV use own tools to find appropriate links
• If unable to advertise at one place – just replace with adverts elsewhere
• Replacing adverts is left to people who (as expected from human nature) can forget
• No knowledge of the value of one advert to another as long as GRP is similar
Typical Result
• Real life example, 2 436 (6%) leads were lost and even if the difference in invoicing regularized – still an overall loss
• Client was completely unaware that adverts were not being played as scheduled and corrective action below invoicing amount
Cost Leads
Adverts booked 3 935 891 40 000
Adverts played as scheduled 3 463 584 35 200
Adverts not played 472 307 4 800
Adverts played not scheduled 460 755 2 436
Traditional Analysis Micro-sampling
• Traditional sources of data use thousands to predict the behavior of millions
• For example, a study used 200 surveys used to predict behavior of 1.6 mil consumers
• Relevant because of the absence of useful data for the targeted metrics
Irregular
• Census data (once every 10 years)
• Surveys slow and delayed
• Reports often months behind
• More frequent information is often available but not used
How does this apply to Traditional Media Methods?
Plan
• Strategy
based on
miniscule
sampling
• Pseudo-
statistics
Target
• Targeting
based on
human
experience
and intuition
Execute
• Very
bureaucratic
• Old
fashioned
• Non tech-
enabled
Monitor
• Monitoring of
whether
adverts
flighted
unimportant
(just replace)
• 7 day delay
Analyse
• Data
weighted out
of
reasonable
use
• Gut feel
predominant
16
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents
Programmatic Approach Planning & Targeting
• Use modern statistical techniques to plan specific tests to maximize schedule information
• Models built show excellent correlations between predicted and actual responses
• Gen3-5 Models are able to predict daily response volumes with 90% and stronger accuracy
• Even Gen1 models are 3 times stronger than Traditional methods
Programmatic Approach: Executing
Lead Flow
Salesforce 2
Call Centre 2 Call Centre 2
Branch 2 Branch 2
Customers segment 2
ATL Media 1 ATL Media 1
Digital Partner 2 Digital Partner 2
Data Provider 2 Data Provider 2
Branch 2 Branch 2
Control Portal
Lead Generation Lead Optimisation Lead Conversion (Sales)
Branch 1
Data Provider 1
Digital Partner 1
ATL Media 1
Existing Customer DB 1
- Aggregate (all sources)
- Dedupe (unique leads)
- Enrich (append data)
- Predict (model & segment)
- Route (right salesforce)
- Measure (CPL, ROI)
- Compare (to predicted)
- Dashboard (real-time monitor)
- Insight (trends, optimise)
- Test (new leads)
Call Centre 1
Branch 1
Field-force 1
LMS
Module
End to End Management
Data
Module
data
data
data data
data
data
Media
Module
Digital
Module
Module Module Module
Modelling
Module
Bureau Customer
Live Scoring
Module
Communication
Module
Modelling
Module
Field Agent Partner 2 Field Agent Partner 1
Programmatic Approach: Monitoring
Technology Enablement
• No leads lost
• Leads linked to source
• Leads tracked throughout workflow
• Problems noticed immediately
Lead Source Cost Leads generated Cost P Lead Sales Cost p Sale
TV – SABC1 R 2 600 000 21 667 R 120 5 417 R 480
TV – eTV R 833 333 4 630 R 180 1 157 R 720
Print Campaign R 350 000 1 522 R 230 380 R 920
Digital Provider 3 R 6 000 15 R 400 8 R 800
Cold Calling R 70 000 23 333 R 3 117 R 600
SMS campaign with script 5A R 1 500 000 13 636 R 110 3 409 R 440
SMS campaign with script 5B R 1 500 000 10 714 R 180 2 083 R 720
Marketing Source and Sales Operations effectiveness can be optimised
Terrible Result Cancel
Great Source Extend
Switch all SMSs to Script 5A
Programmatic Approach: Analysis
• Build and rebuild the Models frequently (every 3 months)
• Book with media owners specifically at slot level as opposed to generic rulesets
• Continue to cherry pick based on human expertise but restrict it to an agreed percent of your advertising spend
• Ensure you keep assigning budget for learning slots
• Embed technology to speed up optimization and scenario planning and testing
Typical Results
• Real Life Example: Significant drop in cost p lead once predictive models implemented
R 4
R 6
R 8
R 10
R 12
R 14
R 16
R 18
R 20
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Cost p Lead
Pre PA
Post PA
Programmatic Approach: Analysis
• Operational Planning enabled when one can daily predict accurate media volumes
• Synergy with other channels allows further marketing ROI improvements
• For example, sending SMSs to keep steady volume flow in call centre where known dips in lead flows are known – large improvement in call centre efficiency and effectiveness
How the Programmatic Approach operates
Plan
• Strategy
based sound
models &
business
goals (brand
& sales)
• Experimental
design
Target
• Targeted
using
models,
cherry
picking and
learning
goals
Execute
• Technology
enables
synergy with
other online
and offline
channels
Monitor
• Monitoring
drives optimal
advertising
• Actual vs
Predictive
highlights
issues quickly
Analyse
• Models built
and rebuilt as
learning
paradigm
improved
• Creatives &
other channels
integrated
But what about …?
Brand &
Creative
Non Direct
Response?
• Brand strength can have an enormous
impact on customer response (we’ve
seen up to 300% increased response
rates)
• We’ve quantified that TV advertising has
a “halo” effect on other channels
• Creatives appeal to different segments …
require specific plans
• Not all “creatives” are equal
• Integration with electronic response
channels extremely indicative of outcome
• 87% of website spikes were linked to
TV adverts flighted within minutes of
those spikes
• Less data means less accuracy, but even
in its worst scenarios, the Programmatic
Approach has much more data than
Traditional methods
24
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents
Wrap up
• The programmatic approach to offline Media has led to significant advantages to those who have adopted it:
• Reduced costs of acquisition
• Improved effectiveness and efficiency of operations (getting the most bang for marketing buck)
• Predictiveness both on micro (p day) and macro (12 months planning) levels that allow for better business planning
• Synergy across marketing channels allowing for true integrated marketing
• Links offline to online
• Links sales and brand & creatives
• The Programmatic Approach can be achieved by applying modern marketing principles and modern technologies