PREAICE GEOGRAPHYPOPULATION AND SETTLEMENT

POPULATION DYNAMICS

• 1 MILLION YEARS AGO: 125,000 PEOPLE.

• 10,000 YEARS AGO WHEN PEOPLE DOMESTICATED ANIMALS, CULTIVATED CROPS, POPULATION WAS ABOUT 5 MILLION. (NEOLITHIC REVOLUTION).

• AS A RESULT OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCE THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF THE LAND IMPROVED AND POPULATION INCREASED.

• BY 3500 BC: 30 MILLION

• 2000 YEARS AGO: 250 MILLION.

POPULATION DYNAMICS

• DEMOGRAPHERS: PEOPLE WHO STUDY HUMAN POPULATION, ESTIMATE THAT BY 1650, WORLD POPULATION REACHED 500 MILLION. BY 1800 GLOBAL POPULATION WAS 1 BILLION.

• SINCE THE 1950’S POPULATION GROWTH HAS BEEN HIGHER IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES.

• EXCEPT AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST WHERE IN OVER 30 COUNTRIES FAMILIES OF AT LEAST 5 CHILDREN ARE THE NORM, BIRTH RATES ARE NOW DECLINING VIRTUALLY IN EVERY COUNTRY.

FACTORS INFLUENCING POPULATION GROWTH

• BIRTH RATE: LIVE BIRTHS PER 1000 POPULATION IN A YEAR.

• DEATH RATE: NUMBER OF DEATHS PER 1000 POPULATION IN A YEAR.

• RATE OF NATURAL CHANGE: DIFFERENCE BETWEEN B.R AND D.R.

• IMMIGRATION RATE: NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS PER 1000 POPULATION IN A YEAR. (RECEIVING COUNTRY)

• EMIGRATION RATE: NUMBER OF EMIGRANTS PER 1000 POPULATION IN THE COUNTRY OF ORIGIN IN A YEAR.

• RATE OF NET MIGRATION: DIFFERENCE BETWEEN I.R. AND E.R.

FACTORS INFLUENCING POPULATION GROWTH

• DEMOGRAPHIC: MORTALITY RATE ALSO AFFECTS FERTILITY. WHERE INFANT MORTALITY RATE IS HIGH, IT IS USUAL FOR PARENTS TO HAVE MANY CHILDREN TO COMPENSATE FOR THESE EXPECTED DEATHS. THE INFANT MORTALITY RATE IS THE NUMBER OF DEATHS OF CHILDREN UNDER 1 YEAR OF AGE PER 1000 LIVE BIRTHS PER YEAR.

• SOCIAL/CULTURAL: EDUCATION AND RELIGION.

• ECONOMIC: IN MANY LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES CHILDREN ARE CONSIDERED LABOR SUPPORT FOR THEIR FAMILIES.

FACTORS INFLUENCING POPULATION GROWTH

• CHINA: WORLD’S MOST SEVERE FAMILY PLANNING POLICY.• 1954: CHINA POPULATION REACHED 600 MILLION.• 1958: RAPID INDUSTRIALIZATION AND BIRTHS WERE

ENCOURAGED.• 1962: CATASTROPHIC FAMINE DUE TO NEGLECT IN AGRICULTURE.

APPROXIMATELY 20 MILLION DIED.• 1964: NEW ATTEMPT TO CONTROL BIRTHS WAS INNEFECTIVE

DUE TO CULTURAL REVOLUTION FROM 1966 TO 1971, BIRTH RATE PEAKED AT 45/1000.

• 1979: ONE CHILD POLICY IMPOSED.

FACTORS INFLUENCING POPULATION GROWTH

• BY 2007 THE BIRTH RATE IN CHINA DROPPED TO 12/1000.

• U.S. BIRTH RATE IS AT A RECORD LOW. 63/1000.

• SOME COUNTRIES TRIED TO INCREASE POPULATION BY:

1. LONGER MATERNITY LEAVES

2. HIGHER CHILD BENEFITS

3. IMPROVED TAX ALLOWANCES FOR LARGER FAMILIES.

MORTALITY

• IN THE 1900’S THE AVERAGE FOR LIFE EXPECTANCY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 YEARS.

• 1950-1955. 46 YEARS.

• 1980-1985. 60 YEARS.

• PRESENT: 68 YEARS.

MORTALITY

• IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES INFECTIOUS AND PARASITIC DISEASES ACCOUNT FOR 40 PERCENT OF ALL DEATHS.

• POVERTY, POOR ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE, ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE

• EVOLVING HUMAN MIGRATION PATTERNS.

• NEW INFECTIOUS AGENTS.

LIFE EXPECTANCY

• 1900: 30 YEARS

• 1950’S: 46 YEARS

• 1980’S: 60 YEARS

• PRESENT: 68 YEARS.

• INFANT MORTALITY RATE: INDICATOR OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROGRESS.

• 1950’S: 138/1000. PRESENT 52/1000.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

• IT ILLUSTRATES TRENDS OF POPULATION GROWTH.

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

• DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IS THE SHIFT OF BIRTH AND DEATH RATES FROM HIGH TO LOW LEVELS IN A POPULATION.

• STAGES:

• 1. THE HIGH STATIONARY STAGE: Birth rate is high and stable, while death rate is high and fluctuating due to famine, disease and war.

Population growth is very slow and there may be periods of decline. Large proportion of population is under 15.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

• 2. THE EARLY EXPANDING STAGE: Death rates decline to levels never experienced before. Birth rate remains at previous level. The gap between the 2 rates gets wider and natural rate of change peaks at the end of the stage. Population under 15 increases. Infant mortality rate drops due to better nutrition, improved public health, cleaner water, better sewerage, medical advance. Rural to urban migration.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

• 3. THE LATE EXPANDING STAGE: It occurs after norms are established and birth rate begins to decline. Urbanization generally slows and average age increases. Life expectancy continue to increase and infant mortality to decrease. Countries in this stage experience lower death rates than many other nations due to their young population structures.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

• 4. LOW STATIONARY STAGE: Both death rates and birth rates are low. The birth rate is generally slightly higher and it fluctuates due to changing economic conditions. Population growth is slow. Death rates increase slightly due to increase in average age of population. Age specific mortality rates continue to fall.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

• 5. THE NATURAL DECREASE STAGE: Mainly in Europe, birth rate has fallen below death rate. In the absence of net migration inflows, the population is declining. Germany, Belarus, Bulgaria and Ukraine.