Pre-SC20 Market Update

©2020 Intersect360 Research

Pre-SC20 Market Update

November 2020

Welcome. The webinar will begin shortly.


Pre-SC20 Market Update

November 2020


Agenda1. The full effect of cloud computing in HPC, rolled up from multiple budget segments2. A brief discussion of ROI3. A check-in on our HPC forecast model for 2020-244. Important trends as we head into SC20:

• The continued impact of AI on HPC budgets and deployments• Consolidation in the processor market• NVMe, flash, and tiering• Data from our HPC User Ratings study on vendors to watch in HPC


Worldwide HPC Market, 2019 vs. 2018with a focus on cloud computing


HPC Market in 2019: Notes

• Worldwide HPC market was $39.0 billion in 2019, up 8.2% from $36.1 billion in 2018• This was about a point higher than our forecast• Government led growth in 2019, after six years of growth led by industry

• Uneven distribution by product/service segment:• Servers and storage each grew between 2% and 3%• Major growth in cloud and cloud-like deployments

• Top vendors declined in market share relative to others; no major changes in rank


HPC Server Revenue Market Share• Leaders HPE, Dell both slightly down in 2019;

still 60% share combined• Virtual tie for #1; HPE leads by less than half a

percentage point• HPE revenue includes Cray revenue post

acquisition, completed in September 2019; Cray revenue prior to acquisition is in “Others”

• Lenovo largest vendor with year-over-year growth• IBM failed to sustain growth from 2018• Double-digit growth for Atos, Penguin, Inspur,

and Fujitsu• Huawei strong internationally despite trade and

political issues with U.S.• Notable “Others”: NEC, NVIDIA, Sugon, Supermicro

HPE

Dell EMC

LenovoIBM

InspurAtos

FujitsuHuawei

PenguinOthers


HPC Storage Revenue Market Share

• Top four vendors all lost revenue from 2018; still combine for over 60% share

• HPE, Dell, IBM all slightly down in 2019• NetApp fell from #2 to #3 with a poor year• Revenue is assigned to seller; NetApp

partnership with Lenovo moved some revenue from the former to the latter

• Double-digit growth for Atos, DDN, and Fujitsu• Some of Atos’ growth is resale of DDN product;

DDN true growth rate is even higher• HDS has been moved to “Others” due to lack of

focus on HPC. HDS had 5.0% share in 2018• Notable “Others”: HDS, Huawei, Inspur, Intel,

Panasas, Quantum, Qumulo, Spectra, WekaIO

Dell EMC

HPE

NetAppIBMLenovo

DDN

Atos

Fujitsu

Others


Products and Services ($000): 2018 vs 2019

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

2018 2019

Other

Cloud

Networks

Software

Services

Storage

Servers


Products and Services: 2018 vs 2019

• Cloud grew 17.8% to $1.4 billion.• Double-digit growth of $217 million.• Is $1.4 billion the complete role of cloud? No.

2018 2019 Change Y/Y Growth

% of HPC

(2018)

% of HPC

(2019)

Servers 12,932,004 13,236,003 304,000 2.4% 35.8% 33.9%Storage 5,663,551 5,816,325 152,774 2.7% 15.7% 14.9%Services 2,966,345 3,758,167 791,822 26.7% 8.2% 9.6%Software 8,483,530 9,182,570 699,040 8.2% 23.5% 23.5%Networks 2,643,257 2,784,532 141,275 5.3% 7.3% 7.1%Cloud 1,215,330 1,431,890 216,560 17.8% 3.4% 3.7%Other 2,169,362 2,806,309 636,947 29.4% 6.0% 7.2%Total 36,073,379 39,015,797 2,942,418 8.2% 100.0% 100.0%

Total WW HPC Market ($000) - Products and Services - Intersect360 Research, 2020


Products and Services: 2018 vs 2019

• Look at other categories that showed high growth. This growth shows up in “Other” ways:• Services: Other• Software: Other• Other: Other

• A closer look shows additional effect of cloud computing.

2018 2019 Change Y/Y Growth

% of HPC

(2018)

% of HPC

(2019)

Servers 12,932,004 13,236,003 304,000 2.4% 35.8% 33.9%Storage 5,663,551 5,816,325 152,774 2.7% 15.7% 14.9%Services 2,966,345 3,758,167 791,822 26.7% 8.2% 9.6%Software 8,483,530 9,182,570 699,040 8.2% 23.5% 23.5%Networks 2,643,257 2,784,532 141,275 5.3% 7.3% 7.1%Cloud 1,215,330 1,431,890 216,560 17.8% 3.4% 3.7%Other 2,169,362 2,806,309 636,947 29.4% 6.0% 7.2%Total 36,073,379 39,015,797 2,942,418 8.2% 100.0% 100.0%

Total WW HPC Market ($000) - Products and Services - Intersect360 Research, 2020


HPC Server Classes ($000): 2019

Entry Level (< $50K)

Midrange ($50K to $250K)

High-End ($250K to $1.5M)

Supercomputers (> $1.5M)

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

Highest growth

Lowest growth

If the growth rates of the lower-end segments matched the growth rate at the top, there would be about $200 million more spending. Where is it? Cloud.

This is the “visible” portionof cloud growth. What else is there?


Raw cycles39%

Storage21%

Environment hosting

(IaaS, PaaS)14%

Application hosting (SaaS)

23%

Other3%

HPC Cloud Categories: 2019

We didn’t directly measure large growth in high-value cloud segments: SaaS, IaaS, PaaS. Where is that growth?


HPC Software: 2018 to 20192018 2019

$300+ million growth in Software: Other, primarily due to SaaS contracts,showing up in the Software budget.

System Software

Middleware

Tools

Storage Mgmt

3rd Party ISV

Transfer Cost Other, 0.1%

System Software

Middleware

Tools

Storage Mgmt

3rd Party ISV

Transfer CostOther, 3.5%


HPC Services: 2018 to 20192018 2019

$200+ million growth in Services: Other, primarily due to cloud managed services contracts,showing up in the Services budget.

Maintenance and Repair

Systems Engineering

Systems Integration

Training

Programming

Other, 2.9%

Maintenance and Repair

Systems EngineeringSystems

Integration

Training

Programming

Other, 8.3%


Cloud-Related Growth in “Other” Budgets

Directly measured HPC Cloud spending: $1.43 billion

Plus:SaaS in Software budgets: $200 – 400 millionCloud managed services in Services budgets: $200 – 400 millionOther cloud contracts in Other budgets: $400 – 600 million

HPC Cloud range: $2.2 – 2.8 billion

Additionally, there is some AI in the cloud that is entirely separate from HPC users and budgets.This can easily add $1 billion, depending on methodology, for a total well over $3 billion.Hyperscale AI infrastructure by itself is about $8 billion.


HPC in the Cloud

• Directly reported in Cloud segment of HPC budgets, $1.4 billion• Counting other “cloud-like” deployments, range is $2.2 to $2.8 billion• If other cloud-native, non-HPC, machine learning training is added, then higher still• Cloud continues to be high-growth area of the five-year forecast• Methodology notes:• We are not “adding” $1 billion to the market model. The totals are unchanged.• This “additional” money was already accounted for, in other segments.• Our existing methodology accounts for this spending.• Our budget surveys will be updated to account for these cloud types more specifically.


The ROI of HPC

• Published editorial in HPCwire,October 15, 2020• Response to Hyperion Research

multi-year, multi-million-dollar studyasserting 4,300% ROI of buying HPC• Offers an analysis of what we can

measure from existing data• Is HPC worth it? Yes, generally. • Does HPC, in of itself, generate $44 in profit and $465 in revenue for every dollar spent?

Of course not. That’s insane.


Measuring ROI

ROI =Net profit

Total investment

• Return on investment has a specific definition• Hyperion is not measuring ROI at all• Measuring ROI is complicated, usually done

at the business unit or project level• Net profit means marginal profit due to the investment; total investment includes all costs• What is the marginal ROI? Going from $0 to $100K is very different from $50.0M to $50.1M• Future returns are subject to discount rates• Industry-level ROI is subject to zero-sum problem and prisoner’s dilemmas• Most companies measure individual purchase decisions against hurdle rates, typically in the

range of 12% to 15%; if HPC is valuable, presumably it clears this. ROI maybe 20% to 50%?


The Value of HPC2014 study with U.S. Council on Competitiveness, “Solve”

“HPC is critical to the future direction of our business.” – 86% agreed

“For some of our problems, HPC methods are the only practical solution.”– 79% agreedwww.compete.org/reports/all/2695


ROI: What Indicators Do We Have?• Intersect360 Research has been surveying HPC users since 2007• Every survey has budget info, at least in bands, for demographic purposes• 58 public companies* have provided HPC budget data in more than one year, 2007 to 2018• Here is our scientific experiment:• Assumption: There is a positive correlation between expected profits and stock price• Hypothesis: There is a positive correlation between HPC expenditures and future profits• Test: Is there a positive correlation between HPC expenditures and stock price?

• This is not a real ROI study. However, it does look for any evidence of consistent, dramatic returns from investing in HPC.

* Excludes several Indian companies traded on the NSE, BSE, or OTC of India, which resulted in dramatic outliers. Also excludes data from 2019 and 2020 to allow for future-looking performance.


Stock Prices with HPC Budget Changes

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Current

100x

10x

1x

.1x

.01x

.001x

Relative stock price

HPC budget risingHPC budget rising, then fallingHPC budget steadyHPC budget falling, then risingHPC budget fallingDow Jones Industrial Average

HPC budget increaseHPC budget back up to previousHPC budget steadyHPC budget back down to previousHPC budget decreaseFirst reported budget data


Stock Prices with HPC Budget Rising

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Current

100x

10x

1x

.1x

.01x

.001x


HPC budget risingHPC budget rising, then falling

Dow Jones Industrial Average



Stock Prices with HPC Budget Falling

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Current

100x

1x

.1x

.01x


10x

HPC budget falling, then risingHPC budget fallingDow Jones Industrial Average



Stock Prices with HPC Budget Stable

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Current

10x

1x

.1x

.01x


HPC budget steady

Dow Jones Industrial Average



Budgets vs. Stock Price: What We Found• HPC-using companies, as a group, do not outperform the market in general.• The best subgroup is those with increasing HPC budgets, a measurable 1.7% better than the

Dow Jones Industrial Average, per year. Is that due to the HPC increase?• No! The stocks in this group outperformed the DJIA in the two years before the increase

in HPC budget, not in the years after.• Forward-looking stock performance is no better in this group than in other groups.

• This analysis suggests that this year’s profitability affects next year’s HPC spending, not the other way around. (Have any of you experienced this?)• This still is not an ROI study. (Neither is Hyperion’s.) This analysis does suggest there is

nothing magical about HPC investment that improves profitability.


Worldwide HPC Market ForecastFive-Year Forecast, 2020 to 2024


HPC Market Forecast to 2024: Notes

• Worldwide HPC market will grow to $55.0 billion in 2024, 7.1% CAGR from 2019.• Cloud will continue to grow at over 20% CAGR and have a major effect on the market.• The government sector will have the highest CAGR over the next five years.• HPC server revenue growth will continue to concentrate in larger configurations• Fueled in part by Exascale computing• Lower-end systems have higher replacement by cloud computing

The global COVID-19 pandemic will have a dramatic effect on HPC market revenue in 2020-2023, including lost revenue. By 2024, the HPC market will be back to its original growth curve. There is no effect on CAGR.


The Hazards of Forecasting

“ “


The Shape of an HPC Recession

Bars: Baseline, pre-recession forecast and growth rate

Year Zero: Pre-recession


The Shape of an HPC Recession

Year One: Recession Market dips due to cancellations and

delays in purchasing

Year Two: Rebound – Purchases delayed from Year One are additive in Year Two

Years Three and Four – Diminished “echo effect” due to budget cycles and product life cycles

Year FiveBy Year Five the

market is back on its previous growth path. There is no

effect on five-year CAGRs.

The HPC market followed this pattern in 2009-15 after recession in 2009. HPC Storage also followed this pattern after supply chain disruptions due to flooding in Southeast Asia in 2011.

Lost revenue: Dips in Years One and Three outweigh peaks in Years Two and Four

Artificially high growth


HPC Market History: 2009 Recession

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

OtherCloudNetworksSoftwareServicesStorageServers

Artificially high growth


Forecasting the Effect of COVID-19

1. Complete forecast as normal, using pre-pandemic budget expectations and trends.2. Model expected multi-year effect by vertical market. This is the primary consideration.3. Create secondary multi-year models by product segment, regions, and sub-categories.• Ensure consistency between models.• Rectify totals to correspond with vertical market analysis.

4. Calculate total loss (or gain) by segment; translate into revised forecast.

For additional information on methodology, see:Worldwide High Performance Computing Market Forecast:

Pre-Announce Guidance Related to the Effects of COVID-19, March 2020.


HPC Market Forecast: COVID-19 Adjustment

• Worldwide HPC market will fall 10.1% below baseline forecast for 2020• Translates to $4.2 billion below baseline forecast• Nullifies previously forecasted growth; now 3.7% decline year-over-year• Forecasting first year of HPC market decline since 2009

• Most revenue is delayed, not lost. 2021 will be a rebound year: 8.0% above baseline forecast• Echo effects in 2022 (2.8% below baseline forecast) and 2023 (1.6% above baseline forecast)• Return to “normal” in 2024; five-year CAGR still 7.1%; significant adjustment to segments• COVID-19 adjustment translates to total $1.2 billion revenue loss over the five-year forecast:

shortfalls in 2020 and 2022 outweigh gains in 2021 and 2023• Significant forecast risk: How long does COVID-19 last as an economic damper?


HPC Forecast: Vertical Markets ($000)

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Other commercialTransportationRetailMedia & EntertainmentLarge product manufacturingFinancial ServicesEnergyElectronicsConsumer product manufacturingChemical engineeringBio-sciencesState or local governmentNational agencyNational securityNational research labAcademic/Not-for-profit

• This is the primary segmentation for COVID-19 adjustments to forecast

• Hardest hit vertical markets in 2020 (with 2021 rebound):• Energy • Retail • Large product

manufacturing• Bio-sciences has slight

increase over 2020 baseline• National research labs,

national agencies, and national security also stable


HPC Forecast: Products and Services ($000)

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

OtherCloudNetworksSoftwareServicesStorageServers

• Servers hardest hit in 2020• Cloud has dramatic increase

• Cloud goes up when on-premise acquisitions are constrained

• Cloud handles uncertainty well

• Continues >20% CAGR• Continued growth in Services

and Other, related to managed services and other utility-based cloud-like deployments


HPC Forecast: Regions ($000)

• North America (U.S./Canada) will have biggest 2020 loss: 6.8% decline in 2020

• Other regions relatively flat year-over-year (still negates previously forecast growth)

• This is opposite of how things looked in March when we first released guidance: originally Europe and Asia appeared worse

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Latin AmericaAsia-PacificEMEANorth America


How Is This Forecast Looking?• Early indicators are that 2020 is trending according to forecast• Expecting dip in on-premise deployments due to economic effects of pandemic• Cloud sector appears to be booming

• What about 2021? This forecast assumed “normal” economic activity resumes.• There may be significant lingering effects for key industries (automotive, aerospace, oil) that

continue to depress HPC spending• The longer the recession lasts, the more we will find spending that is not only delayed,

but canceled


SC20 Trends: Effect of AI on HPC Budgets

Dramatic increase (2x or more)5% Sharp increase

(+20% to 100%)7%

Moderate increase (+5% to 20%)

40%

Relatively stable (within +/- 5%)

45%

Decline (beyond 5% down)3%


CPU + Accelerator consolidation is a major trend for 2021

SC20 Trends: Processor Consolidation

• Literal consolidation:• NVIDIA acquires ARM• AMD acquires Xilinx• Marvell acquires Inphi

(but cancels ThunderX3)

• Technology consolidation:• Intel Xeon CPUs + Xe GPUs• AMD EPYC CPUs + Instinct GPUs• NVIDIA ARM CPUs + A100 GPUs

CPU + Accelerator consolidation is a major trend for 2021


Additional Research: User Vendor Ratings

Broad HPC end-user survey

Leveraged internal list, HPCwire partnership, HPC Advisory Council

Survey May – June 2020

Full results in Q3 2020


Which vendors have the best impression and satisfaction in the user community, both in segment and overall?

Which vendors are likely to see shifts in HPC market share (up or down) in the next two years?

How does satisfaction relate to loyalty and willingness to buy again?


Vendors in Four ModulesProcessor Vendors (8)

AMD: EPYC CPUsAMD: Radeon GPUsFujitsu: A64fx ARMIntel: Xeon (x86) CPUsIntel: All other (FPGAs, GPU, neural, etc.)IBM: POWER CPUsMarvell ThunderX1/X2/X3 ARM CPUsNVIDIA: GPUs for HPC and AI

Server Vendors (11)

HuaweiIBMInspurLenovoPenguinSupermicro

Atos/BullCrayDell EMCFujitsuHPE (not including Cray)

Storage Vendors (10)PanasasQuantumQumuloVASTWekaIO

DDNDell EMCHPEIBMNetapp

Cloud Vendors (11)Oracle (OCI)Penguin (POD)R Systems RescaleUberCloud

Alibaba CloudAWSGoogle GCPIBM CloudMicrosoft AzureNimbix


Survey Questions

1. How aware or informed are you of each of the following vendors' offerings for HPC?

2. What is your organization's experience using these vendors' solutions for HPC?

3. What is your impression of each of the following vendors' technical capabilities and performance?4. What is your impression of each of the following vendors' operational capabilities, such as ease of use,

service, manageability, etc.?5. What is your impression of each of the following vendors' future prospects for HPC?

6. What is your organization's likeliness to use each of the following vendors in the next two years?

7. Is your planned future usage more or less than your current usage?

All questions answered on a five-point scale, plus sometimes “N/A.”


Ratings Explanations

• Avg.: Average score received, assuming top of scale (very impressed, extremely likely, etc.) = 5, and bottom of scale (very unimpressed, extremely unlikely, etc.) = 1. (Note: There is no 0, so middle is 3, not 2.5.)

• % 4/5: The combined proportion of respondents who gave either a 4 or 5 rating on a particular question. This is used to represent the total leaning to the positive side (e.g., impressed or very impressed). Those responding “N/A” are excluded from this calculation.

• % 3/4/5: The combined proportion of respondents who gave a 3, 4, or 5 on a particular question. This is used selectively. For example, in the question on usage, it represent the proportion whose usage is current, anywhere on the spectrum from occasional usage to widespread usage.

• % N/A: The proportion of total respondents who marked the question “N/A.” These are excluded from averages and other calculations. Note that there is some knowledge to be gleaned in considering how many (or few) respondents have an opinion about a particular vendor.


Study Demographics

4.2%

6.0%

18.7%

17.5%20.5%

12.0%

4.8%

16.3%

Annual HPC Budget(Excluding 19 respondents who declined to provide)

Less than $50,000

$50,000 to $99,999

$100,000 to $499,999

$500,000 to $999,999

$1,000,000 to $1,999,999

$2,000,000 to $4,999,999

$5,000,000 to $9,999,999

$10,000,000 or higher

23.5%

31.1%

27.9%

17.5%

Number of Employees

1-99

100-999

1,000-9,999

10,000 or more

194 end-user respondents from 30 countries worldwide


Processors


Processors: Awareness

4.66

4.38

3.79

3.38

3.36

3.35

2.57

2.55

95.8%

88.0%

63.0%

48.9%

47.9%

47.6%

23.2%

21.8%

Avg. % 4/5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Marvell: ThunderX1/X2/X3 ARM CPUs

Fujitsu: A64fx ARM CPUs

AMD: GPUs

Intel: All other (FPGAs, GPU, neural, etc.)

IBM: POWER CPUs

AMD: EPYC CPUs

NVIDIA: GPUs

Intel: Xeon CPUs

Expert/Intimately Aware Informed/Mostly aware Casual/Somewhat aware Vaguely aware No Awareness


Processors: Experience/Usage

4.72

4.22

2.50

2.25

2.16

1.94

1.47

1.38

94.8%

80.2%

29.0%

18.0%

21.7%

14.4%

8.0%

5.9%

Avg. % 4/597.9%

94.3%

50.3%

45.0%

32.8%

32.1%

15.4%

13.9%

“Current”% 3/4/5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%



AMD: GPUs

IBM: POWER CPUs


AMD: EPYC CPUs

NVIDIA: GPUs

Intel: Xeon CPUs

Current: Widespread usage Current: Frequent usage Current: Occasional usage Previous usage No previous usage


Processors: Technical Impression

4.32

4.14

4.09

3.50

3.41

3.36

3.28

3.13

82.5%

78.8%

73.8%

48.2%

39.8%

37.4%

32.7%

30.9%

Avg. % 4/52.1%

0.5%

17.5%

26.2%

50.0%

26.8%

48.7%

28.4%

% ”N/A”Graph and scores exclude “N/A” responses. The percent responding N/A is given at right.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%



AMD: GPUs


IBM: POWER CPUs

AMD: EPYC CPUs

Intel: Xeon CPUs

NVIDIA: GPUs

Very Impressed Impressed Neutral Unimpressed Very Unimpressed


Processors: Technical Weighted

3.00 3.20 3.40 3.60 3.80 4.00 4.20 4.40

Intel: All other (FPGAs,…Marvell: ThunderX1/X2/X3…

AMD: GPUsFujitsu: A64fx ARM CPUs

IBM: POWER CPUsIntel: Xeon CPUs

AMD: EPYC CPUsNVIDIA: GPUs

Unweighted

Weighted

Average technical / performance ratings (excluding N/A), with scores weighted by customer awareness

Impressions tend to go up when scores are weighted by how much awareness users have.

AMD CPUs overtake Intel CPUs in rating weighted by awareness.


Processors: Future Prospects for HPC

4.38

4.26

3.93

3.58

3.42

3.36

3.27

3.23

85.2%

77.7%

67.9%

47.2%

40.0%

34.1%

37.9%

38.2%

Avg. % 4/52.1%

9.3%

1.0%

13.8%

33.5%

33.0%

13.4%

16.9%

% ”N/A”Graph and scores exclude “N/A” responses. The percent responding N/A is given at right.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

IBM: POWER CPUs




AMD: GPUs

Intel: Xeon CPUs

AMD: EPYC CPUs

NVIDIA: GPUs

Very Impressed Impressed Neutral Unimpressed Very Unimpressed


Processors: Likeliness to Use in Two Years

4.53

4.51

3.82

3.04

2.94

2.66

2.50

2.40

90.7%

88.1%

68.2%

33.0%

27.0%

26.6%

19.0%

16.0%

Avg. % 4/5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%



IBM: POWER CPUs


AMD: GPUs

AMD: EPYC CPUs

NVIDIA: GPUs

Intel: Xeon CPUs

Extremely Likely Likely Neutral Unlikely Extremely Unlikely


Processors: Present vs. Future

4.72

4.22

2.50

2.25

2.16

1.94

1.47

1.38

94.8%

80.2%

29.0%

18.0%

21.7%

14.4%

8.0%

5.9%

Avg. % 4/597.9%

94.3%

50.3%

45.0%

32.8%

32.1%

15.4%

13.9%

“Current”% 3/4/5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%



AMD: GPUs

IBM: POWER CPUs


AMD: EPYC CPUs

NVIDIA: GPUs

Intel: Xeon CPUs

Current: Widespread usage Current: Frequent usage Current: Occasional usage Previous usage No previous usage

4.53

4.51

3.82

3.04

2.94

2.66

2.50

2.40

90.7%

88.1%

68.2%

33.0%

27.0%

26.6%

19.0%

16.0%

Avg. % 4/5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%



IBM: POWER CPUs


AMD: GPUs

AMD: EPYC CPUs

NVIDIA: GPUs

Intel: Xeon CPUs

Extremely Likely Likely Neutral Unlikely Extremely Unlikely

Experience Likeliness to Use in Two Years

Compare “Current usage” (% 3/4/5) on left to “Likely to Use” (% 4/5) on right


Processors: Adoption by Non-Current Users

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

Intel: Xeon CPUs

Intel: All other (FPGAs, GPU,…

IBM: POWER CPUs

Marvell: ThunderX1/X2/X3 ARM…


NVIDIA: GPUs

AMD: GPUs

AMD: EPYC CPUs 63

57

6

53

62

53

48

2

Total responses,excluding “N/A” Chart is percent of

respondents that are notcurrent users, that will buy “more” or “much more” in two years.

”N/A” is excluded.

Intel Xeon CPUs and NVIDIA GPUs have too few non-current users for this to be relevant to those.


Selected Conclusions

• Relationship between CPU and GPU will define the next chapter.• What the market wants: Intel or AMD CPUs with NVIDIA GPUs.• NVIDIA GPUs are accelerators, reliant on some other CPU, whether x86 or ARM.• AMD already has its own GPU, and Intel is designing one, but these are lower rated than

AMD and Intel CPUs.• AMD GPUs could get a huge bump (see Future Prospects, Present versus Future, and

Adoption by Non-Current Users slides) but need to overcome poor user perceptions of operational issues (ease of use, service, manageability, etc.).• User perceptions of Intel CPUs has not transcended to other Intel processing elements.


Number One User Rating by Category

Highest-rated overall is based on an average of technical and operational ratings. Vendor product loyalty is based on the percentage of current users whose projected future usage is “about the same," “more,” or “much more." Projected adoption is based on the percentage of non-current users whose projected future usage is “more” or “much more.” Projected market share gain is based on the percentage of users that indicated they were “likely” or “extremely likely” to use in two years, versus the percentage that are current users, for each particular vendor.

Top Vendors by Category Processors Servers Storage CloudProduct Awareness Intel Xeon Dell EMC Dell EMC AWSCurrent Usage Intel Xeon Dell EMC Dell EMC AWSTechnical Impression NVIDIA GPUs Cray DDN AWSOperational Impression Intel Xeon Cray DDN AWSOverall Impression NVIDIA GPUs Cray DDN AWSFuture Outlook NVIDIA GPUs HPE (incl. Cray) DDN AWSLikely to Use in Two Years Intel Xeon Dell EMC Dell EMC AWSLoyalty of Current Customers AMD EPYC Inspur Qumulo AWSAdoption by Non-Current Users AMD EPYC HPE (incl. Cray) DDN AWSProjected Market Share Gain AMD EPYC Atos WekaIO Microsoft Azure


SC20 Trends: NVMe, Flash, and Tiering

• On-node NVMe / flash / persistent memory is on the rise. • We are polling users for implementations including:• Local, on-node flash / NVMe• Local, on-node disk• Attached storage, all-flash• Attached storage, hybrid flash/disk• Attached storage, all-disk• Disk archive• Tape archive• Cloud storage

SC20 Panel: (Track 8, pan116)The Diverse Approaches to Tiering HPC StorageNovember 17, 1:30 – 3:00 p.m. ET


Where We’ll Be Next

• SC20: November 9-19

• CHPC National Conference, South Africa: November 30 –December 2• Society of HPC Professionals:

December 10-11


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Pre-SC20 Market Update – Q&A

Thank you!

Documents

Pre-SC20 Market Update