Pravda Markets Report Technicals Monthlypravdaanalytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Pravda... · 2017. 4. 10. · Pravda Analytics Pravda Markets Report Technicals Monthly April

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Pravda Markets Report

Technicals Monthly

April 2017 Edition

http://pravdaanalytics.com/


Pravda Analytics | Copyright © 2017 | All rights reserved

Market Index Overview – S&P500 (SPX) as of close Friday 5/7/17

Index continues to consolidate below all-time March highs in a controlled decline. Support is found at the 50 day moving average.


A Closer Technical Look – Bonds (TLT) as of close Friday 3/3/17

Bonds rallied back up to the resistance near $153 and stalled. Bulls failed to break though this multiple times.


A Closer Technical Look – Oil

Oil consolidates in a wedge with resistance at $54.5. Support is at the ascending trend line around $50.


A Closer Technical Look - Gold

Gold’s‏2017‏rally‏is‏halted‏as‏it‏struggles‏to‏break‏the‏resistance‏at‏‏.$1260‏


Sentiment – CNN Greed and Fear Index- FEAR

The Index moving into the FEAR area as US markets continue sliding off their all time highs.

What is this? CNN's Fear & Greed Index tracks seven indicators of investor sentiment. Investors are driven by two emotions: fear

and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. When investors get greedy, they can bid up stock prices

way too far.

“Be‏Fearful‏When‏Others‏Are‏Greedy‏and‏Greedy‏

When Others Are Fearful”‏– Warren Buffett


Sentiment – AAII Investor Sentiment Survey- BEARISH

Investors flocked away from Bullish to Neutral and Bearish opinions.

What is this? The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has become a widely followed measure of the mood of

individual investors. The weekly survey results are published in financial publications including Barron's

and Bloomberg and are widely followed by market strategists, investment newsletter writers and other

financial professionals.

Last Month:


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10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity.

Inverted yield curve often precedes a major market decline. So far so good.


Inverse Put Call Ratio

A unique oscillating indicator based on options activity coupled with a Bollinger Band to view overextended signals.

Options activity is tilted towards Calls indicating bullish sentiment.

Activity is within the lower half the recent historical average as observed by the Bollinger Bangs, indicating a mild S&P500 =

orange line.


Stock Averages

Number of Stocks Above 20-Day Moving Average

The market is in a neutral state with a near 50/50 split of stock trending up and down.


Sentiment – ISE Sentiment Index - NEUTRAL

The Index has recently retraced back to its average for a neutral sentiment.

What is this? ISEE is an indicator of bullish/bearish investor sentiment that is computed using a unique calculation methodology and

proprietary ISE option trade data. Unlike traditional put/call ratios, ISEE is based on opening long customer transactions only. Trades

by market makers and firms are excluded as these tend to skew sentiment value. As a result, ISEE provides a more accurate

reflection of true investor sentiment.

O 10 day moving average

O 50 day moving average


Market Direction Confirmation via Transports Sector Observation as per Dow Theory

Key premise of the theory states that both

the broad equity market index as well as

the transports index need to align in

market direction to confirm a bullish or

bearish trend. (additional rules apply)

Dow theory

Market Direction: Cautiously Bearish

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is below

long term moving average

Dow Jones Transports Average (IYT) is below

long term moving average

Current Analysis

A confirmed bullish market is when:

Both indexes are exhibiting higher price

peaks and valleys on long term charts

Both indexes are above their respective

200 day moving average (orange)

Additional level of confirmation: index

above 50 day moving average (blue)

The Approach

Dow Jones Index Transports Index

Transports and the Dow are holding strong above both key moving averages indicating a Bullish environment.


Social Media Sentiment

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S&P 500 BONDS GOLD

The sentiment chart shows the percentage breakdown in bullish and bearish sentiment shared by StockTwits users over time. It is

calculated on a rolling, 7 day basis.

The good people of the StockTwits are lightly bullish Stocks and Bonds. Gold remained in extremely bullish sentiment


Currencies

Key support/resistance and trend lines for currencies


Rate Watch

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Fed Funds Rate @ 1.00: market projects a >90% chance that there will NOT be a rate hike in May

Prime Rate @ 4.00: a half a percent move up from a year ago

FOMC’s‏Rate‏Projection from the Dot Plot: currently projecting 2017 @ ~1.50 % and 2018 @ ~2.00%


Sector Analysis: year to date performance

Outperformers: Health Care and Consumer Discretionary

Underperformers: Utilities and Energy


Economic Calendar

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Storm that swept the Northeast may explain a much weaker-than-expected 98,000 increase in March nonfarm payrolls. This

compares with Econoday's consensus for 175,000 and a low estimate of 125,000. It is also the weakest reading since May last year.

One standout sign of strength in the report and that's the unemployment rate which fell a very sharp 2 tenths to 4.5 percent as the

number of unemployed fell by 326,000 to 7.2 million. This is the lowest unemployment rate since the height of the last expansion in

April 2007


Headlines of the week

Notable‏covers‏and‏headlines‏from‏world’s‏most‏read‏publications

As Princeton economist Paul Krugman wryly noted, "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first put on the cover of Business Week."


Personal Finance - The Richest Man in Babylon

Make thy gold

multiply

Make of thy

dwelling a

profitable

investment

Guard thy

treasures from

loss

Seven Cures for a

Lean Purse

Start thy purse

to fattening

Control thy

expenditures Increase thy

ability to earn

Insure a future

income

Goddess of Good Luck smiles upon those who

work hard, save their money, and invest well.

She doesn't really patronize professional

gamblers, who always seem to end up poor

Meet the Goddess of Good Luck Five Laws of Gold (Money)

• Mentors, Books

• Seminars, Experience Learn

• Business, Investment

• Knowledge, Attitude, Skills

Master

Pay • Yourself first

• Save 10% of earnings

Invest

• Business

• Real estate

• Stocks

• Scams

• Trickeries

• Get rich schemes Avoid

The Richest Man in Babylon is a book by George S. Clason which dispenses financial advice through a

collection of parables. Through their experiences in business and managing personal finance, the

characters in the parables learn simple lessons in financial wisdom.


Investing & Trading Blueprint

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IBD's 10 Secrets to Success – great blueprint to improve your trading, investing, as well as every day

activities and personal goals:

Pravda‏Analytics



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Pravda Markets Report Technicals Monthlypravdaanalytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Pravda... · 2017. 4. 10. · Pravda Analytics Pravda Markets Report Technicals Monthly April