Practicing Progressive Pragmatism · practicing progressive pragmatism charly salonius-pasternak fiia briefing paper 77 • march 2011 77 charting barack obama's course for u.s. foreign

PRACTICING PROGRESSIVE PRAGMATISM

Charly Salonius-Pasternak FIIA BRIEFING PAPER 77 • March 2011

77

CHARTING BARACK OBAMA'S COURSE FOR U.S. FOREIGN POLICY

• PresidentBarackObama’sviewandhandlingofforeignpolicychallengescanbedescribedaspragmaticallyprogressive.Hisforeignpolicyblendsarealistmindsetandpragmaticapproachwithliberaland,attimes,idealisticandfar-reachinggoals.

• Obama’sforeignpolicydecision-makingprocessisdeliberate.Thisisnotalwayscompatiblewiththeexpectationsofthemodernpoliticalandmediaenvironment.

• Twoyearsintohispresidency,Obamahasengagedwiththefivemajornationalsecurityissuesheoutlinedasacandidate,meetinginitialsuccessinfourofthem.

• Whenfacedwithunexpectedeventslargelybeyondhiscontrol,Obamaseemsnottomakesnapdecisionsbasedonaparticularideology,preferringtotakethetimetoseehoweventsunfold.

• Whenfacedwithcrisesthatbuildupslowlyorwerepreviouslyidentifiedinscenarios,Obama’sadministrationhasrespondedrobustlyanddeliberately.

PRACTICING PROGRESSIVE PRAGMATISM

FIIA Briefing Paper 77

March 2011

CHARTING BARACK OBAMA'S COURSE FOR U.S. FOREIGN POLICY

The Global Security research programme

The Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Charly Salonius-Pasternak

Researcher


THE FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 3

Alittlemorethantwoyearsintohisfirstadministra-tionPresidentBarackObamahasfacedmoreforeignpolicycrisesandchallengesthanalmostanyofhispredecessors.Theseeventshavetestedhisleadership,andgivenbothdetractorsandsupportersnumerousopportunitiestoassesshisapproachtoforeignpol-icy.ThecriseshavealsohighlightedthebreadthofforeignpolicyexperiencethatPresidentObamacantake advantage of inhis administration; SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,SecretaryofDefenseRobertGates,andVice-presidentJoeBidenareparticularlynoteworthyinthisrespect.

The ability to steer the ship of state as historicalevents continually reveal uncharted waters is animportanttestforanycommander.Anotherindica-torof leadership is theability todescribeavisionofthefuture,andthensteeracoursetowardsthatfuture. Consequently, President Obama’s foreignandsecuritypolicyperformancemustbeevaluatedboth on his ability to engage on the priorities hedescribedwhile campaigning, and onhowhehasreactedtounexpectedevents.

Engaging and delivering on campaign promises

Inhis“ANewStrategyforaNewWorld”speechdur-ingthesummerof2008,candidateObamaexplainedtheprinciples thatwould guidehis foreignpolicy.Healsolaidoutfiveexplicitnationalsecuritypolicyissues hewould focus on as president: (1) endingthewar in Iraq; (2) emphasizing the fight againstal-QaedaandtheTaliban inAfghanistanandPaki-stan;(3)securingallnuclearweaponsandmaterials

fromterroristsandreducingthenumberofnuclearweapons; (4) achieving true energy security; and(5)rebuildingalliancesandengagingwiththerestoftheworldtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury.Twoyearsintohispresidency,PresidentObamahasengagedwith all of these issues, and secured suc-cessesinallbutenergysecurity.

Ending the war in IraqOfhisfivepriorities,endingthewarinIraqhasbeenachievedwith little international public attention.Approximately 100,000 soldiers have been with-drawn during the past two years. InAugust 2010,OperationIraqiFreedomwasreplacedbyOperationNewDawn, giving the less than 50,000AmericansoldiersinIraqanewmission:toadvise,assistandtrain Iraqi security forces.Thepaceofwithdrawalhasbeenslower (bysome6months) thantheonesuggestedbycandidateObama,butPresidentObamahaschosentofollowthestatusofforcesagreement(SOFA)signedattheendofthepreviousadministra-tionbetweentheUSandIraqigovernments.ClearlythepreconditionsforwithdrawalweresetpriortoObama’spresidency,buthecanassuredlysaythathehasresponsiblyendedthewarinIraq.

Focusing on Afghanistan and PakistanCandidateObamaexplicitlysaidhewouldincreaseresources and focus on thefight against al-QaedaandtheTalibaninAfghanistanandPakistan.Presi-dentObamahasfollowedthrough.Hehasincreaseddiplomaticresourcesandcivilianassistanceeffortsintheregion,thoughthecivilianassistancebudgetisstilllessthanfivepercentoftotalU.S.outlaysinAfghanistan.Obamahasalsosignificantlyexpanded

Camaraderie between the person making the decisions and one who

implements them. Obama met U.S. troops at a mess hall during his visit

to Afghanistan in March 2010. Photo: Pete Souza / White House Photo.


ingalliancesandengagingwiththerestoftheworld.Transatlanticrelationsaresignificantlybetterthantheywereafewyearsago.Relationswithalliessuchas Japan and South Korea are strengthening, andrelationshipswithotherAsianpowerssuchasIndiaand Indonesia improving.The ‘reset’ with Russiahasbeenshowntocontainmorethanjusteloquentphrases. Obama has skilfully navigated relationswith China, perhaps the defining relationshipbetweenstatesinthe21stcentury.Aspromiseddur-inghiscampaign,ObamahascontinuedtopressureIranon itsnuclearprogramme,whilealsoseekinggeneraldiplomaticandpoliticalreconciliationwiththe country. In a sign that hewants tominimizedistractions,Obamahasalsodownplayedthesignifi-canceinU.S.foreignpolicyofforeignleaderssuchasHugoChávez.

Takentogether,itisclearthatObama’sforeignpolicyisbasedonmultilateralism,onworkingwithbothallies and other countries to address future chal-lengesandmutualinterests.ThechallengeforsomecountriesandorganizationswillcontinuetobethatObama’smultilateralismisnottiedtofixedorgani-zations;concreteachievementsarenotsacrificedonthealtarsofdysfunctionaldiplomaticinstitutions.

Uncharted waters and 3 a.m. phone calls

Americanpresidentshavefornearlyacenturyrecog-nizedthatthestatureoftheUnitedStatesdemandsthat they respond to crises that occur around theworld.Usingthemetaphorfromthe2008presiden-tialelections,these3a.m.phonecallcrisesgenerallycome in twoforms.Thefirst typeconcernseventswhichhavebeenlargelypredictedandexpected,thetimingofwhich is simplyunclear.Rising tensionsontheKoreanPeninsulaareanexampleofthis.Theothertypeofcrisisleadershipforcesapresidenttosailinunchartedwaters,requiringcontinualadjust-ments to the course as events unfold.Obama hasfacedboth types of crisis, six ofwhich are brieflyaddressedbelow.

PresidentObamaandhis innercirclehaveconsist-ently seen crises as opportunities, and in manyinstances sought to use such crises as a tool tostrengthen formaland informalglobalgovernanceinstitutions.Forexample,theglobalfinancialcrisiswasusedtopushforchangestoglobalfinancialgov-ernancestructures,andinthecaseoftherevolution

thescopeandincreasedthenumberofdroneattacksinPakistan,andmadeaidtothecountryconditionalon increased counterterrorism cooperation. It islikely, however, that even Obama did not expectthathewouldmorethantriplethenumberofU.S.soldiersdeployedtoAfghanistan.Whatthemid-tolong-termconsequenceof the increasedresourcesaremaybecomecleareroverthenextthreeyears.

Reducing nuclear weapons and securing nuclear materialSecuring nuclear material and reducing the num-ber of nuclearweapons has been a security policypriority forBarackObama sincebeforehebecamepresident.InPragueinApril2009PresidentObamaarticulatedaclearvisionofhisultimategoal:aworldfreeofnuclearweapons.ThesigningoftheNewSTARTTreaty, aswell as the Nuclear Security Summit inWashingtonweresmallbutclearstepstowardsthisgoal. Incontrast,efforts topermanentlydismantlebothNorthKorea’sandIran’snuclearweaponspro-grammeshavenotbeensuccessful.Whiletalksmayresumein2011,thebiggestthreattoNorthKorea’sprogrammeseemstobethecollapseofthedictatorialregimeitself.Iran’sprogrammeisongoingbutithasbeensloweddownthrougharangeofactionstakenbytheUnitedStatesandothers,includingadditionalUNsanctionsandeffectiveandtargetedcyberattacks.

Achieving energy securityWhiletheothergoalsarerelativelystraightforwardtodescribe,“achievingenergysecurity”wasapar-ticularlyAmericanandsecuritizedwayforcandidateObamatodescribeacomplexsetofgoalsthatalsoincludedincreasedrenewableenergydevelopmentwhile addressing climate changeon the side. The2009 stimulus bill included over $70 billion forenergy efficiency and renewable energy-relatedwork,andcar fuel-efficiencystandardshavebeenincreased,butthereislittleelseObamacanpointtointermsofconcreteachievementsrelatedtoenergysecurity. Current domestic politics and instabilityin the broaderMiddle East suggest that increasedoilandgasexplorationaroundtheUnitedStatesispossible,butlittleelseshouldbeexpectedinthenexttwoyears.A secondpresidential termmay see anincreasedfocusonthisissue.

Rebuilding alliances and engaging with the rest of the worldThepersonaandbeingofBarackObamahavebeenofgreatimportancewithregardtothegoalofrebuild-


inLibya,PresidentObamahassoughttostrengthenthestatureofboththeUnitedNationsandtheInter-nationalCriminalCourt.

Financial and economic crisisThefinancialcrisisandeconomicrecessionhavepro-videdabackdroptoPresidentObama’sentiretermaspresident.Assuch,itisnota3a.m.crisis,thoughitsmagnitudemeritsthesailinginunchartedwatersmetaphor.Domestically,PresidentObamahasbeenunable to sufficiently explain why the course hechosewasnecessaryandhowsuccessfulithasbeen.On the foreignpolicy front, PresidentObamahasbeencriticizedbysomefornotpressuringChinatorevalue its currency or getting European govern-mentstospendtheirwayoutofrecession.ClearlynoU.S.presidenthastheabilitytoforcesuchmeasuresto be taken.There is evidence, however, that theObama administration’s non-public efforts at get-tingChinatoshouldermoreresponsibilityindevel-opingahealthyandstableinternationaleconomyarepayingoff.

Tensions on the Korean PeninsulaDuringPresidentObama’stenure,NorthKoreahasbeenacontinuoussourceof3a.m.phonecalls. Ina nine-monthperiodNorthKorea sank the SouthKoreannavyshipCheonan,shelledtheSouthKoreanisland of Yeonpyeong and announced importantadvances in its nuclearweapons programme.Thetiming of these crises could not be foreseen, butthe Obama administration was nonetheless ableto consider potential responses to events such asthese.Consequently,theadministration’sresponseshavebeenwellthought-out:unambiguoussupportof South Korea and other regional allies, through

diplomaticandmilitarytools.PresidentObamaalsousedthecrisestopersuadeChinathatitneededtoshouldermoreresponsibilityforclarifyingthestakesinvolvedinescalationfortheNorthKoreanregime.However, as noted earlier, the administrationhasnot been able to significantly halt North Korea’snuclearweaponsprogramme.

Haiti earthquakeThe magnitude of the humanitarian catastrophecausedbytheearthquakeinHaiticausedtheUnitedStatestoengageinanextensivehumanitarianassis-tance operation. Perhaps because there were fewpoliticalimplicationsofprovidinghumanitarianassis-tanceinanareaitmustconsideritsbackyard,wheretheU.S.wasbestpositionedandhadthecapabilitytoprovideimmediatehelp,thedecisionstoassistwererelatively easy.An interestingpointof comparisonis the administration’s response to theDeepWaterHorizonoilspillintheMexicanGulf,aneventwhichitcouldnotaddresssimplyby(re)deployingexistingresources(asinHaiti).

Wikileaks TheimpactonU.S.foreignpolicyofthepublicationof approximately a quarter of a million U.S. dip-lomatic documents is ultimatelyunclear.Muchoftheinformationcontainedinthediplomaticcableswasknownpriortopublication.Itislikelythatthemostsignificantimpactswillbeseeninthedomesticpolitics of a number of countries, not in how theUnited States conducts its foreign policy. If any-thing,thecablessupporttheargumentthatspecificU.S. foreignpolicyissuesvarybytheday,butthatcoreinterestsremainfairlystableyearonyear.TheObamaadministrationhasmadeextensiveeffortsto

The White House situation room, where good arguments win the day. Photo: Pete Souza / White House Photo.


staunchthespreadofthedocuments,andmadeititspolicynot tocommentonthem. However,recog-nizing thathecouldnotprevent theirpublication,PresidentObamaisunlikelytohavelostmuchsleepoverthecablespublishedtodate.

Post-presidential election protests in IranThestrengthof thepost-presidential electionpro-tests in Iran in June 2009 bewildered the ObamaAdministration.MindfulofAmerica’spastmeddlingin Iranianpolitics, PresidentObama’s initial reac-tionwas total silence.Obamawasurgedbymanytoexplicitlysupporttheprotestersandoppositionparties.Astheprotestsexpandedandwerebrutallysuppressed,Obamacondemnedtheviolencevisitedupontheprotesters,butrefusedtosupportanyoneside.Itseemsanawarenessofhistoryandpoliticalrealities,coupledwithObama’sdesireforconcreteachievements and the possibility of a negotiated‘grand bargain’ with the Iranian leadership pre-ventedhimfromdepartingtoomuchfromthesafetyofthemetaphoricalopensea.

Revolution in EgyptThepersistenceoftheanti-regimeprotestmovementin Egypt in early 2011 clearly stunned theObamaadministration.During the initial days of thepro-tests,theObamaadministrationcontinuedthemorethan 30-year-old policy of supporting EgyptianPresidentHosniMubarak.Witnessing the consist-entweek-long large-scale protests,Obamabegantocallforan“orderlytransition”,thusrevealinganopennesstotheargumentthatauthoritarianregimeswerenotnecessaryforcontinuedlong-termstabil-ityinEgypt.Asitbecameincreasinglyclearthat(inObama’swords) thearcofhistorywasbending infavouroftheprotesters,thispositionmorphedintoacallforMubaraktoimmediatelyrelinquishpower.

Inthespaceoftwoweeks,theUnitedStatesradicallychangeditsapproachtooneof itskeyallies intheMiddleEast—causingconsiderableanguishinIsraeland Saudi Arabia. Some critics accusedObama ofbeingtooslowtosupporttheprotesters,whileoth-ersarguedthathisdecisionnottosanctionaviolentrepressionoftheprotestscausedirreparabledamagetoU.S.interestsintheMiddleEast.Itistoosoontotell, but unequivocally, this timeObama let ideal-ismandsupportfordemocracyoverridefluctuatingnotionsofAmerican interests—perhapsultimatelybelievingthattheyaremoreoftenthannotreconcil-able.

Theadministration’sresponsestotheaboveeventssuggestthatBarackObama’sdeliberativedecision-making style is somewhatmore suited to thepre-dicted3a.m.callthansailingunchartedwaters.Yet,whencalledfor,Obamahasbeenabletodrawonhisdeepreservoirofknowledgeandhismulti-culturalperspectivetochartanewcoursefortheAmericanshipofstate,anchoringittotherightsideofhistoryduringEgypt’srecentrevolution.

Obama’s foreign policy leadership

An evaluation of President Obama’s foreign andsecuritypolicyduring thepast twoyears suggeststhat although Obama possesses different types ofleadership abilities he seemsdistinctlymore com-fortable incertain typesofcrisesor foreignpolicyenvironments. It also suggests thatoncedecisionsare made, he is comfortable delegating authoritythroughouthis administration, inparticular trust-ingSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandSecretaryofDefenseRobertGates.ThesetwoaretheexternalembodimentsofObama’sinternalliberalidealistandpragmaticrealist.Becauseofthisdynamic,itseemslikelythatwhenClintonandGatesdecideto leavetheirposts,Obamawillseektofillthepositionswithindividualswithsimilarimpulses.

PresidentObama’sabilitytoworktowardsachiev-ing each of his five priorities, despite the globaleconomiccrisisandamultitudeofotherunexpectedevents, speaksofacapacity to focusonstatedpri-orities and strong vision-creating leadership. Itsuggeststhat,inthefuture,Obamawilladdresstheissueshehighlightsaspriorities.

When sailing in unchartedwaters or facedwith 3a.m. phone call crises, PresidentObama’s foreignpolicyrecordismoremixed.Facedwithcriseswherethe build-up is slower and escalation foreseeable(suchastheKoreasin2010),theadministrationhasreactedquiteadroitly.Insituationssuchastherevo-lutioninEgypt,wherefundamentalpillarsofAmeri-canforeignpolicymustpotentiallybere-evaluated,Obamadoesnotseemtomakedecisionsbasedonaparticularideology,preferringtotakethetimetoseehoweventsunfold.IfanideologicallabelhadtobeaffixedtothefirsttwoyearsoftheObamaadminis-tration,itwouldbeprogressivepragmatism—seek-ingprogressive(mostlyliberal)goalsthroughsmall,concrete and achievable steps. This is consistent


withbothObama’sownwritingsandthewritingsofthosehehassaidhelookstoforguidance.Itisalsoin starkcontrast to theneo-conservative ideologywhich guided policy-making during the previousadministration.

Fundamentally, the ideaofacrisis coupledwithamediaandcitizenrythathavebeenconditionedtodemandclear,quickresponsesdoesnotfitaprag-matic,deliberateandoccasionallytime-consumingapproach to foreign policy decision-making. Cou-pledwith a genuine appreciation for the limits of(coercive) power and the resulting policies, thisbrand of realism has frustratedmany both in theUnitedStatesandabroad.Ithasalsodeniedhisaudi-ences immediate emotionally satisfying and clearresponses to crises, and caused some to criticizeObama for lacking crisis-leadership skills. Suchcriticismmissesthepointandsaysmoreaboutthecritics’frustrationwithbeingunabletolabelPresi-dentObama’sforeignpolicyasexclusivelydrivenbyidealismorrealism.

Certainly,crisisleadershipisimportant,andPresi-dentObamahasprovedtobegoodatit(thoughnotalwaysgoodatexplainingit),butitisanincompletemeasure of leadership. Rather, in matters whereindividual decisions can carry consequences fordecades,leadershipmustbeevaluatedbasedonanabilitytodiscernimportantissues,andmethodically

addressthem.Itislong-termthinkingandstrategicengagementthatareneededwhenbuildingasolidrelationship with China, getting all nuclear pow-erstoengageinnegotiationstoreducethenumberof nuclear weapons, or encouraging the develop-mentofdemocracyintheMiddleEast.ThefactthatObama’s foreign policy leadership style blends arealistic, pragmatic and deliberate approachwithidealisticandfar-reachinggoalsisnotunexpected,especiallybecausewhilehebelievesinthevaluesofsoaringrhetoric,hevaluesconcreteachievements.

Obama and China's president Hu Jintao (left) can only wish the world's myriad networks and interconnected

challenges could be handled this easily. Photo: Pete Souza / White House Photo.

Charly Salonius-Pasternak


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Practicing Progressive Pragmatism · practicing progressive pragmatism charly salonius-pasternak fiia briefing paper 77 • march 2011 77 charting barack obama's course for u.s. foreign