Pr bability

PowerPoint Presentation

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What is the Probability of us flipping a head?The Probability of us flipping a head would be:: For every time we flip the coin, there is a half chance of the coin landing head-side up. 50 %: For every one time we flip it, there is a 50% chance the coin will land head-side up. 1:2: There is a one in two chance that the coin will land head-side up.

Stickman: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviantart.com/download/158746443/Stick_Figure_by_101stickfigure101.jpg&imgrefurl=http://101stickfigure101.deviantart.com/art/Stick-Figure-158746443&h=527&w=488&sz=52&tbnid=CH7gl7_6zHCaYM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=92&zoom=1&usg=__aGfsTZYX3IugO6Y5Gwjvyn6EF_8=&docid=IUyPNWYHqiBjXM&sa=X&ei=nuliUYDqLur62QWOqYDoDg&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=782

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What is Probability?Probability is the likeliness that something will happen!

Picture from: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviantart.com/download/158746443/Stick_Figure_by_101stickfigure101.jpg&imgrefurl=http://101stickfigure101.deviantart.com/art/Stick-Figure-158746443&h=527&w=488&sz=52&tbnid=CH7gl7_6zHCaYM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=92&zoom=1&usg=__aGfsTZYX3IugO6Y5Gwjvyn6EF_8=&docid=IUyPNWYHqiBjXM&sa=X&ei=nuliUYDqLur62QWOqYDoDg&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=782

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Now suppose there are three different types of soda, one candy bar and one box of popcorn and that each item is equally liked. What is the probability of a customer choosing the candy bar?

1:31:51:2

Stickman: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviantart.com/download/158746443/Stick_Figure_by_101stickfigure101.jpg&imgrefurl=http://101stickfigure101.deviantart.com/art/Stick-Figure-158746443&h=527&w=488&sz=52&tbnid=CH7gl7_6zHCaYM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=92&zoom=1&usg=__aGfsTZYX3IugO6Y5Gwjvyn6EF_8=&docid=IUyPNWYHqiBjXM&sa=X&ei=nuliUYDqLur62QWOqYDoDg&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=782Food: Microsoft Clip Art

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Notation:When we flip one of our hard-earned quarters from the concession stand, we know that for every two times we flip it, we should get one head and one tail. How do we write Probability?

Stickman from: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviantart.com/download/158746443/Stick_Figure_by_101stickfigure101.jpg&imgrefurl=http://101stickfigure101.deviantart.com/art/Stick-Figure-158746443&h=527&w=488&sz=52&tbnid=CH7gl7_6zHCaYM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=92&zoom=1&usg=__aGfsTZYX3IugO6Y5Gwjvyn6EF_8=&docid=IUyPNWYHqiBjXM&sa=X&ei=nuliUYDqLur62QWOqYDoDg&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=782Coin: https://www.google.com/search?q=cartoon+coin+heads&hl=en&rlz=1C1TSNO_enUS486US486&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=FLxkUZKFNMqayQHliYC4DQ&ved=0CDEQsAQ&biw=1092&bih=533#hl=en&rlz=1C1TSNO_enUS486US486&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=cartoon+coin+head&oq=cartoon+coin+head&gs_l=img.3...1176.1176.0.1740.1.1.0.0.0.0.50.50.1.1.0...0.0...1c.1.8.img.d4Obj43j8GU&bav=on.2,or.r_cp.r_qf.&bvm=bv.44990110,d.aWc&fp=ccdab70a1ac6a730&biw=1092&bih=533&imgrc=fypOHCxCNOkonM%3A%3BpyLUhGCikS-DKM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Flosingmycents.files.wordpress.com%252F2012%252F04%252Fcartoon-penny1.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Flosingmycents.com%252Ftag%252Fcoins%252F%3B403%3B398629

What is Probability?Probability is the likeliness that something will happen!

Picture from: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviantart.com/download/158746443/Stick_Figure_by_101stickfigure101.jpg&imgrefurl=http://101stickfigure101.deviantart.com/art/Stick-Figure-158746443&h=527&w=488&sz=52&tbnid=CH7gl7_6zHCaYM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=92&zoom=1&usg=__aGfsTZYX3IugO6Y5Gwjvyn6EF_8=&docid=IUyPNWYHqiBjXM&sa=X&ei=nuliUYDqLur62QWOqYDoDg&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=782

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What is the Probability of us flipping a head?

The Probability of us flipping a head would be:: For every time we flip the coin, there is a half chance of the coin landing head-side up. 50 %: For every one time we flip it, there is a 50% chance the coin will land head-side up. 1:2: There is a one in two chance that the coin will land head-side up. Or the coin will land head up one time per two times it is flipped.


Coin: http://0.tqn.com/d/coins/1/0/U/-/-/-/coin-anatomy-1.jpg8wrong17We know that 20 out of 100 people will buy popcorn. How can we write this as a reduced fraction? Try Again!17Correct!35Thats Right!You really know your stuff!


35wrong34How many total options does the customer have to choose from? Now how many of those options are the sodas? Try Again!

Food: Microsoft Clip Art

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We sell 20 popcorns during that day.

Suppose that on a normal day in the concession stand, we have 100 customers.


Concession stand:https://www.google.com/search?q=cartoon+concession+stand&hl=en&rlz=1C1TSNO_enUS486US486&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=R1RlUeH0CarhygGUwYDICA&ved=0CDUQsAQ&biw=1092&bih=533#imgrc=wtt-TvP9CAdGbM%3A%3BNOp4Di3HxCOkAM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.cartoonstock.com%252Flowres%252Fpha0636l.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fconcession.usegrid.net%252F%3B373%3B400Customers: http://www.diabetesmine.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/stick-figure.jpg http://blogs.technet.com/resized-image.ashx/__size/550x0/__key/communityserver-blogs-components-weblogfiles/00-00-00-91-10/6740.StickFigure_5F00_Sunglasses.png 1415

Watch the video below for a step-by-step demonstration of the application of probability to our concession stand! Stickman: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviantart.com/download/158746443/Stick_Figure_by_101stickfigure101.jpg&imgrefurl=http://101stickfigure101.deviantart.com/art/Stick-Figure-158746443&h=527&w=488&sz=52&tbnid=CH7gl7_6zHCaYM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=92&zoom=1&usg=__aGfsTZYX3IugO6Y5Gwjvyn6EF_8=&docid=IUyPNWYHqiBjXM&sa=X&ei=nuliUYDqLur62QWOqYDoDg&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=782

15Prob in concession stand 516

SoBased on probability, if there are 10 people in line, how many of them should buy popcorn? Remember that on a normal day, 20 out of 100 customers buy popcorn!243


16Probability in a concession stand 119

So why is it important that we use probability in our concession stand? Businesses can use probability to help them determine what consumers like and dont like. The more a business understands its consumers, the more money it will make.


19stand 220

Why do we use probability to predict sales?In our concession stand, it is important that we pop the right amount of popcorn.

If we pop too much popcorn, we will have to throw the extra away. If we pop too little popcorn, our customers wont be satisfied.

How can we pop just the right amount?


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100peopleRemember:If 100 customers visit the concession stand, we will sell 20 popcorns.

How could we figure out how much popcorn to pop if we were expecting 300 customers?SUBMIT20PopcornsStickman: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviantart.com/download/158746443/Stick_Figure_by_101stickfigure101.jpg&imgrefurl=http://101stickfigure101.deviantart.com/art/Stick-Figure-158746443&h=527&w=488&sz=52&tbnid=CH7gl7_6zHCaYM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=92&zoom=1&usg=__aGfsTZYX3IugO6Y5Gwjvyn6EF_8=&docid=IUyPNWYHqiBjXM&sa=X&ei=nuliUYDqLur62QWOqYDoDg&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=782

21622

We know that for every 100 people that visit the concession stand, 20 buy popcorn. How would we get from 100 to 300 people? What property would we use?100people=peopleSUBMIT20Popcorns60PopcornsX3/3


22Correct!23Thats Right!You really know your stuff!


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Now you try some on your own!


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Our Concession Stand is filled with goodies! Given the three options below, what is the probability that a customer would chose to buy popcorn? Suppose that all items are equally liked!

1:32:21:4

Stickman: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviantart.com/download/158746443/Stick_Figure_by_101stickfigure101.jpg&imgrefurl=http://101stickfigure101.deviantart.com/art/Stick-Figure-158746443&h=527&w=488&sz=52&tbnid=CH7gl7_6zHCaYM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=92&zoom=1&usg=__aGfsTZYX3IugO6Y5Gwjvyn6EF_8=&docid=IUyPNWYHqiBjXM&sa=X&ei=nuliUYDqLur62QWOqYDoDg&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=782Food: Microsoft Clip Art25Correct!32Thats Right!You really know your stuff!


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Lets look at the same scenario again: there are three different types of soda, one candy bar and one box of popcorn and that each item is equally liked. Now we want to know the probability of a customer choosing any type of soda?

3:51:51:3

Stickman: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviantart.com/download/158746443/Stick_Figure_by_101stickfigure101.jpg&imgrefurl=http://101stickfigure101.deviantart.com/art/Stick-Figure-158746443&h=527&w=488&sz=52&tbnid=CH7gl7_6zHCaYM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=92&zoom=1&usg=__aGfsTZYX3IugO6Y5Gwjvyn6EF_8=&docid=IUyPNWYHqiBjXM&sa=X&ei=nuliUYDqLur62QWOqYDoDg&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=782Food: Microsoft Clip Art

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You did a great job today! It was really fun learning about how we can apply probability to the real world!


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Pr bability