Upload
vithiyar89
View
243
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
LONG WAVE CYCLEThe Dot.Com Bubble Burst
THE KONDRATIEV CYCLE
KONDRATIEV LONG WAVE CYCLE
Kondratiev Long term cyclical changes Time span: 50 years 4 Phases
Recovery Prosperity
Recession
Depression
THE 4 PHASES
Recovery: Discoveries are developed in to new innovations
that create entirely new opportunities Uncertainty variety of competing product
configurations
Prosperity Innovations diffuse Band-wagon effect Over ambitious and unrealistic plans
THE 4 PHASES
Recession Limits of technological advance become evident
price competition becomes intense New technology spills into process applications Transformative capacity of technology
Depression Declining profitability Mergers and acquisitions Discoveries, breakthroughs and inventions
THE 5 CYCLES
THE FIRST.DOT COM BUBBLE
THE ‘DOT COM’ BUBBLE (YEARS 1995 – 2001) Internet-based companies growth (dot coms) Investors rushed in to be a part of this new
revolution Wealth for investors (Year 2000) bubble crashes, wealth disappears
‘DOT COM’ COMPANIES SIGNIFICANT TO THE BUBBLE
WHERE DOES THE 'DOT COM' BUBBLE FIT WITHIN THE LONG WAVE CYCLE?
Today, we are considered to be well into the fifth cycle
First cycle 1780-1830
Second cycle 1830-1880
Third cycle 1880-1930
Fourth cycle 1930-1980
Fifth cycle 1980-2030
Recovery Prosperity Recession Depression
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU CONSIDER IT (BUBBLE CRASH) TO HAVE BEEN PREDICTABLE?
Significant warning signs : Low interest rates 1998-1999 Skyrocketing salaries Internet companies business strategies
-’Get large or get lost’ Band Wagon effect Programmer becomes overnight millionaire
THE SECOND DOT.COM BUBBLE
TWO HUMP-CURVE When will the cycle end? Unlike the traditional one hump curve, we have a
two-hump curve.
Time
Economic activity
TWO HUMP-CURVE TWO HUMP-CURVE First hump: from 1995 to 2001 Hasn’t evolve into the depression after 2001 Second hump: from around 2006 to maybe
2010 A new bubble is gradually formed
WEB 2.0 BUBBLE
The second hump represents of the bubble of web 2.0 technology
Web 2.0 is a term describing a trend is the use of World Wide Web technology that aims to enhance creativity, information sharing, and collaboration among users.(Wikipedia)
WEB 2.0 BUBBLE
Representatives: Facebook, Myspace, Hi-5, and Friendster
Facebook brings Web 2.0 into mainstream New technologies such as RSS, AJAX
(Asynchronous JavaScript and XML) is used in Facebook
WHY WEB 2.0 IS ANOTHER BUBBLE?
1. there is too much money pumped into Web 2.0 companies
2. there are virtually no barriers to entry in Web 2.0
3. there is very little liquidity in the market for Web 2.0 companies (The Wall Street Journal)
OTHER TYPES OF TECHNOLOGY
OTHER TYPES OF EVOLVING TECHNOLOGY Broadband internet services
56K,ADSL, Cable, Broadbrand, Wi-Fi
Social Networking sites Email, Forum, MSN, Blogger, Skype You Tube,
Friendster,Facebook
OTHER TYPES OF EVOLVING TECHNOLOGY
Mobile Phone Technology Infrared, GPRS, Bluetooth, Imode, 3G, smart
phones and GPS embedded phones
OTHER TYPES OF EVOLVING TECHNOLOGY
Gaming Technology Gameboy, Sega, Playstation Portable, Nintendo Wii,
Playstation 3
Products and Services
©2007 IDA Singapore.
BeforeSERVICES
SERVICES
©2007 IDA Singapore.
After
SERVICES
FaceBook Platform for web application development YouTube Streaming media online
PRODUCTS
Google Android Phone - Search engine software - New operating system
Window Mobile 7.0
PRODUCTS
Name Sony PlayStation 2 Wii
CPU 294 MHz MIPS "Emotion Engine"
729 MHz PowerPC based IBM "Broadway"
GPU 147 MHz "Graphics Synthesizer" 243 MHz ATI "Hollywood"
THANK YOU!All of the biggest technological inventions created by man - the airplane, the automobile, the computer - says little about his intelligence, but speaks volumes about his laziness. ~Mark Kennedy