Ppt iero maret 2013

Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook

(IERO)

Faculty of Business and EconomicsUniversitas Gadjah Mada

Yogyakarta

Outline

Macroeconomic Dashboard | FEB UGM

Recent Economic DevelopmentsRecent Economic Developments


The debt crisis in Europe continues to be crucially important. Economic growth in China, India, Jepang, and AS have weaken. International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted global economic growth of 3.3% in

2012, 3.6% in 2013 (which is lower than 3.8% posted in 2011). Uncertainty which has emanated from the crisis in Europe continues to drag

down the global economy and in turn the Indonesian economy in two ways namely trade and international finance.

Indonesian economic registered 6.17% in Q3 2012 on year on year basis (posted 6.37% in Q2 2012).

Domestic aggregate Indonesian economic mainly supported by Household Consumption and Gross Fixed Capital Formation.


Figure 1: GDP economic growth, Indonesia in 2000 constant price by Expenditure, 2005 – 2012 (YoY, in %)Economic growth, shows a downward trend, in line with sluggish in world economy

Source: BPS and CEIC


Figure 2: GDP economic growth, Indonesia based in 2000 constant prices by economic sector, 2005 – 2012 (YoY, in %)From the perspective of production, Indonesian economic growth in driven by Transportation and Communications sector, Construction sector, also Financial, Ownership and Business sector



Figure 3 : Unemployment in IndonesiaUnemployment in Indonesia shows a downward trend over the years



Development in Monetary IndicatorsDevelopment in Monetary Indicators


Figure 4: Money SupplyDespite M1 registering a decrease in October 2012 compared to the previous month, in general, money supply shows an upward

SSource: Bank Indonesia and CEIC


Figure 5 : Inflation Level, 2009 – 2012 (YoY, in %)Need for careful handling of the problem of higher core inflation than general inflation

Source : BPS and CEIC


Figure 6: Components of Inflation, 2009 – 2012 (YoY, in %)Rising inlfation on year in November 2012 is attributable to an increase in prices as reflected by several expenditure categories

Sumber : BPS dan CEIC


Source : BPS and CEIC

Figure7: Developments in BI Rate, SBI, Deposits, and Credit/Loans Rates, 2005 – 2012 (in %)Interest rate continues to be in consonance with low inflationary pressures but still under control


Source: Bank Indonesia and CEIC

Figure 8: Indonesia’s International Reserve Position, 2009 – 2012 (in USD Million)The increase of Indonesia’s international reserve is expected to reduce weakening pressure on the Rupiah


Source: Bank Indonesia and CEIC

Figure 9: The Exchange Rate and Share Prices, 2009 - 2012Pressure from global markets continue to induce depreciation of the exchange rate of the Rupiah durinbg 2012

Source : Bursa Efek Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, and CEIC

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1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

IDX (LHS) IDR per USD (RHS)IDX IDR/USD


Developments in Government Finances

Developments in Government Finances


Table1 : APBN 2012 and 2013

Source : Ministry of Finance


APBN 2012 APBN-P 2012 APBN 2013Economic Growth (%) 6.7 6.5 6.8Inflation (%) yoy 5.3 6.8 4.9Exchange Rate (IDR/USD) 8800 9000 98003 Month - SBI/SPN Rate (%) 6 5 5Oil Price (USD/barrel) 90 105 100Oil Lifting (barrel/day) 950000 930000 900000Gas Lifting (barrel/day) - - 1,360,000

Developments in Fiscal PolicyDevelopments in Fiscal Policy


Figure 10 : Components of Government and Private Sector Foreign Debt Government and private sector foreign debt, as well as ratio of foreign debt to GDP show an upward trend

Source: BPS, Bank Indonesia, and CEIC


Figure 11: Government DebtThe ratio of Indonesian government debt to GDP shows a downward trend

Source : Ministry of Finance and CEIC


Figure 12: Composition of Government SecuritiesFixed coupon bonds show an upward trend

Source: Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance and CEIC


Figure 13: Foreign Ownership of SecuritiesThe value of foreign ownership of equity, Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI), and bonds shows an upward trend

Source: Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance, and CEIC


InternationalInternational


Figure 14: Indonesia Trade BalanceIndonesia trade balance falls back into deficit in October 2012

Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and CEIC


Figure 15: Oil and Gas Exports and ImportsWeakening global markets have impacted on Indonesian oil and gas exports



Figure 16: Non oil and gas exports and importsTrade balance in non oil and gas relapsed into a deficit in October 2012

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik dan CEIC



Figure 17: Current AccountsImprovement in the balance of payments stimulated better performance in current accounts

Source : Bank Indonesia and CEIC


Figure 18: Capital and Financial AccountsDevelopments in the domestic economy led to improvement in capital and financial accounts



Figure 19 : Indonesia Balance of PaymentsIndonesia posted a balance of payments surplus in the third quarter 2012



GAMA Leading Economic IndicatorGAMA Leading Economic Indicator


Leading Economic Indicator and Indonesia GDP Business Cycles

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Siklus PDB Leading Indicator

GAMA LEI in the thirtd quarter 2011 started showing signs of changing course, presaging period of impending slow growth.

GAMA LEI signals in the third quarter 2012 point to a change for the better, slower path of decreasing. In light of that, economic practitioners must be ready to determine the right strategy and policy needed to

support the economy in the future.


Current IssuesThe Economic Crisis in Europe : Continues

Current IssuesThe Economic Crisis in Europe : Continues


Current Issue The Economic Crisis in Europe : Continues

by Prof. Dr. Sri Adiningsih, M.Sc and Rosa Kristiadi M.Comm

European economic crisis which begun in 2010 shows no signs of abating. The ongoing economic crisis in the Eurozone region is attributable to the large public debt, which started to emerge in 2000, reflected in a significant increase in the ratio of government debt.

In 2000, the ratio of government debt for Greece was just 77% of GDP, but in 2012 it had surged to 170%. IMF predicts that Greece debt ratio will rise above 180% in 2013 due to the widening budget deficit.

Such a condition is very much in contrast to Maastricht Treaty rules that imposed maximum limit of 60% on the country’s debt to GDP ratio and a deficit of 3% of GDP. The theory is that economic uncertainty in the regional economy is unavoidable if the two ratios go beyond the maximum limits imposed.

To aggravate the situation, the debt crisis has now spread to other countries in the European Region such as Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain, and even France.

Ireland’s ratio of government debt to GDP reached 103% in 2012, which is in contrast to 36% in 2000. Portugal, which in 2012 had a debt ratio of 113%, based on IMF predictions will surge to 119% in 2013.

The large debt overhang facing Eurozone countries such as Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, has hampered their capacity to repay their debt obligations, causing an economic crisis in the European economic region.


Figure 21: Ratio of government debt to GDP in some countries within the European Union region, 2000 – 2013 (in %)

Source: IMF WEO, October 2012


Economic OutlookEconomic Outlook


Economic Outlook The Indonesian economy will continue to show resilience amidst the repercussions of the

European economic crisis on the global economy in 2013. Financial markets, whicha re the main transmission through which global economy uncertainty

affects the Indonesian economy, will continue to be an important source of vulnerability in 2013. Large volume of portfolio inflow in 2012, will continue in 2013, along with its attendant uncertainty, would become source of vulnerability.

The international trade showed weaknesses in 2012, will follow the same pattern in 2013. Development in the non tradeable sector such as Transportation and Communications,

Construction, and Financial Services, Real Estate and Company Services are expected to pressure and difficulties.

Gama LEI: Indonesian economy growth in 2013 will not much different to growth in 2012 within the range of 6-6.5%. The economic authority is expected to implement policies that wioll ensure that macroeconomic and financial market stability, which conditions are needed to ensure investment and business climate remains sound.

Gradual reducing if fuel subsidies is one of the options that can be taken, and funds saved in the process transferred to developing infrastructure which will go a long way in enhancing the competitiveness of Indonesian products on the international market.



MACROECONOMIC DASHBOARDFAKULTAS EKONOMIKA dan BISNIS

UNIVERSITAS GADJAH MADAPertamina Tower Building 4th fl. Room 4.1

Jl. Humaniora No. 1 Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta 55281Phone : +62 274 548 517 ext 373

Email : [email protected] : www.macroeconomicdashboard.com

Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook (IERO) Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook (IERO)


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Ppt iero maret 2013