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© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 1Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1
Don’t look for autonomous vehicles soon
NA power boat demand grows
Brazil Agrishow 2018 Report
JCB reduces backhoe production
Royal Enfield eyes global markets
Nissan to drop diesels in Europe
Russian car sales climb 18%
Published Monthly by
PowerTALKMay 23, 2018 Volume 3 No. 5 Worldwide News & Analysis
About UsPower Systems Research (PSR) is a world leader in providing power equipment
information, whether it’s pure data, analysis, forecasting or specific business
intelligence. This product information ranges from IC engines to battery-electric
and hybrid powertrain technologies. PSR has been providing world class
business and market intelligence to industry leaders for more than 40 years. How
can we help you? For details, call +1 651.905.8400 or email [email protected].
www.powersys.com
Power Systems Research: Data....Forecasts...Strategies
Top Stories
Data PointBy Carol Turner, Senior Analyst, Global Operations
1,500
This is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Off-Highway
Trucks that will be produced in North America (US and Canada) in 2018. This is
an increase of 3% from the 1,470 units produced in 2017 and 1,284 units built in
2016. An Off-Highway Truck is defined as a rigid dump truck designed specifically
for use in high-production mining and heavy-duty construction operations.
Industry leaders are Caterpillar with 53.5% of total units produced. In second
position is Deere, with 27.5%, and in third is Komatsu America with 16%.
From 2016 to 2017, production of Off-Highway Trucks in North America increased
14.5%. An increase of 3.3% is expected for 2018 over 2017. In 2017, there was
increased demand for mining equipment due to increased excavation of iron ore,
nickel and bauxite, as well as gold and copper.
We see production of Off-Highway Trucks increasing up to 5% over the next three
years, but expect production to fluctuate with mining activity. PSR
© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 2
May 23, 2018
Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1 Alternative Power
Autonomous Vehicles Long Way Off
By John Krzesicki, PSR Business Development Manager
Readers of PowerTALK aren’t looking for autonomous vehicles
to hit the roads soon, if our survey published last month is any
indication.
In the April issue of PowerTALK, we asked readers, “When
do you think a fully autonomous vehicle will be available in
the market place?” Only 22.22% of respondents said it would
happen within five years.
More, 33.33%, said it would happen in the period of six to 10
years. So, about 55% of respondents said they expect to see a
fully autonomous vehicle on the road within 10 years.
However, another 44.44% said it would be more than 11 years,
and 33.33% said it would be more than 20 years before we see
large numbers of fully autonomous vehicles on the road.
Look for the biggest changes to come in the commercial sector where there’s a
shortage of drivers and where operating costs are more important than among
private drivers. PSR
In the April issue of PowerTALK, we asked readers, “When do you think a fully autonomous vehicle will be available in the market place?” Only 22.22% of respondents said it would happen within five years. John
Krzesicki
Global/North America Report By Michael Aistrup, PSR Senior Analyst
North America Recreational Boat Update
Boat buyers in North America continue to opt for bigger motors
and more power as they purchase recreation boats.
By one estimate, average horsepower growth in the U.S.
recreational marine engine market over the last few years, has
been increasing by almost 8% CAGR.
“The average today in the U.S. is 111 horsepower. By 2020, it
will be 125 horsepower. It wasn’t that long ago it was somewhere
around 90,” according to Mercury Marine President John Pfeifer.
The upshift in outboard power is being driven partly by innovation (new outboards
are quiet, fuel efficient, compact and lightweight) and partly by broader changes in
the overall boating landscape.
Michael
Aistrup
© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 3
May 23, 2018
Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1Technical innovations in today’s latest engines deliver attractive features beyond
improved fuel economy, low emissions and reduced maintenance requirements.
Buyers are happy to pay for practical innovations like built-in hydraulic steering,
automatic trim and digital shift and throttle.
The entire boating market seems to be experiencing an upshift as consumers
gravitate to increasingly larger products. “Boating is getting bigger, but not in the
sense that everyone’s out there buying 350s and 400s,” said David Foulkes, VP and
CTO Brunswick Corp. “The distribution curve is definitely moving up. People who
previously would have bought a 60 are now buying a 75, for example, and people
who would have bought a 90 in the past are now more likely to buy a 115.
“The overall volumes in that mid-range are still higher than for the very top end, but
the whole curve is sliding upward. Our new 350 and 400 recognize that upward shift
and provide new options for those customers who would have previously bought a
250 or a 300,” Foulkes added.
Here’s one example of how big engines are getting: Yamaha has just introduced a
425-hp V-8 outboard engine.
Today, 85% of the market is outboard and only 15% of the market is sterndrive.
Buyers today are foregoing that 4.3-liter V6 with a sterndrive on it, and now they’re
buying a 200 horsepower V6 outboard instead. The growth in outboard horsepower
is further fueled by the fact consumers view power upgrades as offering considerable
added value against a relatively modest incremental cost. For a consumer who’s
already looking at spending anywhere from $50,000 up on a boat and engine
package, the additional cost for extra horsepower isn’t seen as a major upsell.
The fast-growing pontoon category is also driving demand for big outboards, as
these vessels grow in size and weight requiring greater power, according to Tracy
Crocker, senior vice-president and general manager for Evinrude. “The growing
demand for outboards has been given a further boost from an unexpected source –
manufacturers of traditional sterndrive-powered runabouts. As these builders have
expanded their product lines by adding outboard-powered models, the demand for
outboard power has grown even more.”
The industry has the wind at its back and is being propelled favorably by rising
real estate sales, a strong stock market and an improving economy. “2017 marked
the sixth consecutive year of growth in new boat sales and recreational boating
expenditures, and we expect that trend to continue through 2018, and possibly
beyond,” said Thom Dammrich, NMMA president. New powerboat sales increased
5% in 2017, to 262,000 units, the highest level the boating industry has seen in 10
years with continued sales growth of 5-6% expected in 2018.
The marine industry is experiencing significant growth in units sold and higher
horsepower engines, but any downturn in the global or the U.S. economy will have a
negative effect on the pleasure boat industry, including the engine segment. PSR
EnginLink™
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It contains model level detail for power sources used in off-road equipment and on-highway vehicles.
Call today. +1 651. 905.8400, or email us at [email protected].
Call Today. Why wait for success?
Global/North America ReportContinued from page 2
© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 4
May 23, 2018
Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1 Brazil/South America Report
By Fabio Ferraresi, PSR Director, Business Development, South America
Special Report – Agrishow 2018
Agrishow is the biggest trade show for Agricultural Business
in Latin America and one of the biggest in the world. This
year, it was held April 30 - May 4, and the PSR team was on
the floor gathering information and looking at new products.
An estimated 150.000 people were at the show, visiting
stands of 800 brands of Agricultural Equipment companies,
such as John Deere, AGCO Group, CNHind, Jacto, Agrale,
Yanmar/Agritech, Metalfor, LS tractor and many others from
different segments, as MAN Latin America, XCMG, JCB, Husqvarna and even
Jaguar Land Rover.
It was also an opportunity to make deals, since finance groups such as Banco
do Brasil, Bradesco were there with special funding lines from BNDES. Even
the president of Brazil spoke at the show. The total business volume reached
R$ 2.7 Billion of sales in the event, 22% higher than at last year’s show.
Agrishow is an opportunity for PSR staff to update its databases with launches
announced at the show, including FTP Genset series, the Brazilian Siac/
Colombo peanuts combines and the new BioMethane tractor of New Holland,
one of the biggest attractions in the show.
PSR Analysis: Despite the fact the harvest growth is not as large as in the last
couple years, the Agricultural Equipment market is still growing, due to an
increase in commodities prices and low harvests in Argentina and China-USA
issues on grains purchasing. Available funding lines and pent-up demand
on fleet renewal built over the last couple years due to shortage of funds and
difficult access conditions have added to the growth.
FPT Launches Gen-sets in Brazil
FPT announced at Agrishow the launch of a complete portfolio of gen-sets from
30 to 600 kVA for Brazilian Market, in 8 models of gen-sets without cabinet
and 7 with cabinet in multiple versions, according to end user needs. It will be
assembled by Himoinsa plant in Brazil and sold by FPT dealers network.
Source: FPT press release
Fabio
Ferraresi
Despite the fact the harvest growth is not as large as in the last couple years, the Agricultural Equipment market is still growing.
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© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 5
May 23, 2018
Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1PSR Analysis: FPT will shake the gen-set market with the initiative,
increasing Himoinsa production and revenue on contract manufacturing
with incremental volumes, threatening the existing players. It comes in
an opportunistic moment, when Stemac is facing challenges on the lower
volumes market. PSR
China Report By Qin Fen, PSR Business Development Manager-China.
Erik Martin, PSR Director-Asia Region, contributed to this report
Guangzhou to Implement National 6B Emission Regulation
Five months after China announced the National 5 emission
regulations for light and heavy duty on-highway vehicles,
Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong province in
Southern China, followed Shenzhen in announcing that
Guangzhou will implement National 6B emission regulation
on light duty vehicles less than 3.5 GVWR. starting Jan. 1, 2019
Source: Guangzhou Environmental Protection Agency Read The Article Another Article
PSR Analysis: Guangzhou and Shenzhen are very “radical” in terms of
implementing next generation emission regulation. They are four years ahead
of schedule. Transition time from National 5 to National 6B literally is only one
year. And if light duty OEMs are finding it hard to comply, that’s alright with
Shenzhen, because the city is already encouraging users to switch to battery-
powered vehicles. Pretty soon, Beijing and Shanghai, as capital and largest
city in China, might follow Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
BCPG Seeks Partners for Green Drive
BANGKOK– BCPG, the SET-listed renewable power arm of oil refiner and
retailer Bangchak Corporation, is negotiating merger and acquisition (M&A)
agreements with a set of renewable energy firms as it strives to expand abroad
and capitalize on growing demand for green energy.
Source: Bangkok Post Read The Article Another Article One More Article
Qin FenMarineLink™
1365 Corporate Center Curve St. Paul, MN 55121
+1 651.905.8400 www.powersys.com
Updated and Expanded
for 2018
The 2018 edition of MarineLink™ will be available in Q2 2018.
MarineLink™ contains details on nearly 500 pleasure boat and internal combustion engine manufacturers in Europe and North America.
MarineLink™: a great tool for tracking 10-year trends in the marine industry.
Call Today. Why wait for success?
© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 6
May 23, 2018
Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1PSR Analysis: This Bangkok Post article highlights the increasingly significant
role Thailand is playing in the development and distribution of renewable
energy at home and throughout ASEAN and Asia. We also get a glimpse into
the way microgrids and distributed energy solutions are changing the way
we look at traditional forms of energy generation and transmission. Further
upsetting traditional views is the advent of blockchain technology to create
new energy system models. Regulators, power producers and manufacturers
may have to rethink current methods, and decide how to embrace new
opportunities; they’ll have to work with tech firms, start-ups, universities and
the like to expand this model into new areas.
China ReportContinued from page 5
Europe Report
By Emiliano Marzoli, PSR Business Development Manager-Europe
JCB Reduces Backhoe Production
JCB is reducing it’s backhoe production in order to increase its
telehandler production. Read The Article
PSR Analysis: This is a trend that has been highlighted
recently; the telehandler market is growing, in Europe as
well as in the US. This is a good indication that the focus on
telehandlers is definitely in the forefront of JCB’s strategy.
The main reason for this increase in telehandlers is due to
it’s versatility. Our recent visit to Intermat, one of the largest
construction shows in the world, showed that many players have been
focusing on the telehandler market. Not only the players that were already in
the race such as JCB, Merlo and Deici, to name a few.
This growing market has been identified by a number of players that are
finding new and innovative ways to get some of that market share. Players
like Bobcat, which has brought out reinforced telehandlers to be used in the
rental market.
In order to keep up on the production of backhoe’s, the existing models that
were being produced in the US will shift over to their UK facility. PSR
Emiliano
Marzoli
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Click Here To Go To Page 1 Far East/Southeast Asia Report:By Akihiro Komuro, PSR Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia
INTERMAT ASEAN Planned for Bangkok Sept. 6-8, 2018INTERMAT ASEAN will be held in Bangkok, Thailand.
Sept. 6-8, 2018. This Southeast Asian trade exhibition on
construction and infrastructure, focuses on five key sectors -
Earthmoving & Demolition, Roads, Minerals & Foundations,
Building Industry and Lifting, and Handling & Transportation.
Providing opportunities to explore the latest trends and to
source products, the trade exhibition brings together more
than 5,000 leading companies and brands in a strategic
location – Bangkok, Thailand.
For more information:
• INTERMAT ASEAN• Download Show Brochure• Download Post-Show Report 2017
Concrete Asia To Be Held With INTERMAT ASEANConcrete Asia, the international exhibition for the Asian concrete sector,
showcases a comprehensive range of concrete and cement products,
technologies and techniques. Co-located with INTERMAT ASEAN, the trade
exhibition for the building and construction industry, Concrete Asia aims to
target over 4,000 industry professionals.
For more information:
• CONCRETE ASIA• Download Concrete Asia Brocure• Download Post-Show Report 2017
Far East: Japan
Nissan To Withdraw from European Diesel MarketJapanese carmaker Nissan will gradually stop selling diesel cars in Europe in
a further sign of weakening demand for those cars as customers worry about
tax increases and looming bans and restrictions related to diesel in many
countries. A Nissan spokeswoman said there would be a gradual withdrawal
from diesel cars in Europe. A source told Reuters that Nissan would cut
hundreds of jobs at its Sunderland plant, Britain’s biggest automotive factory,
due to falling demand for diesel models in Europe.
Source: Reuters Read The Article
Akihiro
Komuro
OE Link™ Your source for OEM
production and forecast data
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OE Link™ is the definitive source of global OEM production and forecast data for with engine installation detail for the full range of highway vehicle and off-road segments. And now it includes information on electric and hybrid-drive systems.
Data includes model level detail on vehicle, mobile and stationary equipment applications in 13 key industry segments.
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© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 8
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Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1PSR Analysis: Toyota has already decided to withdraw from diesel in Europe.
With Toyota and Nissan, the top two Japanese car OEMs, leaving the
European diesel market, the shift to EV will accelerate. Although Mitsubishi
and Mazda use diesel technology, it would be difficult to reverse the position
of customers who simply don’t want diesel. There are also reports that
BOSCH has developed a technology that reduces harmful substances of
diesel engines to 1/10, but it is unknown how much this will penetrate diesel
vehicles in the future. The wave of EV is too fast. PSR
Far East: South Korea
Doosan Infracore Invests in Self-driving Startup PoteNit
Doosan Infracore aims to develop unmanned, automated construction
machinery in tandem with the startup equipped with the best technology
in South Korea. In recent months, Doosan Infracore has been pushing to
invest both directly and indirectly in new technologies and businesses related
with the Fourth Industrial Revolution. In particular, the company is striving
to secure unmanned and automated construction machine technologies for
construction and mining worksites and to explore such solutions.
Source: Doosan Read The Article
PSR Analysis: Lack of talent in mining and construction is not limited to
Japan and South Korea. Self-Driving technology will become more important
and a more efficient business management to address human safety and
compete for talent. Komatsu and Caterpillar are already leading in this
field, but Doosan is also jumping on this trend. On the day before this
announcement, the company also made a presentation of Doosan CONNECT
telematics service. These technologies will be indispensable for future
construction machines and mining machines. PSR
Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Vietnam
Indonesia May File WTO Complaint Over Vietnam’s Car Import Policy
Through the new regulation, Vietnam requires international standards
related to vehicle safety and emissions for incoming cars. And while Vietnam
acknowledges that cars manufactured in Indonesia comply with the local
Indonesian National Standard (SNI), it believes that the SNI is not fully
in accordance with the desired international criteria. Indonesia, however,
emphasizes that the local standard complies with international standards
because both standards use the same process and test equipment.
Far East/Southeast Asia ReportContinued from page 7
In particular, [Doosan Infracore] is striving to secure unmanned and automated construction machine technologies for construction and mining worksites and to explore such solutions.
© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 9
May 23, 2018
Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1Source: Indonesia-Investments Read The Article
PSR Analysis: This is not just a matter of Indonesia and Vietnam. Rather, this
problem is a hurdle in the process of the automotive industry in Southeast
Asia becoming highly networked. For Indonesia, which boasts about ten
times the size of Vietnam in automobile production volume, it is an action
aimed at expanding business opportunities, and for Vietnam, it is an action to
protect its own industry and market. If these hurdles are solved, networking in
Southeast Asia will become closer and stronger.PSR
India Report
By Jinal Shah, Regional Director, South Asia Operations
Royal Enfield Wants To Replicate its India Story in Other Markets
Royal Enfield, which sold 19,000 units, up 26% in FY18,
is looking to consolidate its presence where it already has a
foothold looking at growing its footprint from just 1-2 stores to
30-50 stores in the long term. Read The Article
PSR Analysis: As Royal Enfield pushes to become a significant
player in the global mid-sized motorcycle segment (250cc to 750cc), it is eyeing
various markets including Latin America and SE Asia. These markets are similar
to the Indian market with respect to demographics and high share of commuter
motorcycles. It appears that the company is meticulously working to establish
itself in these markets and expand its retail outlets.
The company already has delivered several Continental GT’s in the UK and
select European countries, but we believe the growth effort will be in developing
markets. With an impressive domestic growth story and the confidence and
cash to spend, it can certainly afford to develop new platforms and products to
make strategic inroads into International markets.
Supreme Court: Auto Makers Switch To Electric Vehicles
With the government unable to bring diesel prices down to a par with petrol to
discourage people from using the polluting fuel, the Supreme Court has asked
automobile companies to switch to manufacturing electric vehicles.
Read The Article
CV Link™ We know trucks and buses.
CV Link™ is the leading source of global production, forecast and specification data for on-highway commercial vehicles.
CV Link™ contains OEM names, brands, and models, engine model detail, and qualitative analysis of OEMs and product platforms.
Call today. +1 651. 905.8400, or
email us at [email protected].
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Far East/Southeast Asia ReportContinued from page 8
Jinal
Shah
© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 10
May 23, 2018
Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1
India ReportContinued from page 9
PSR Analysis: A week after the SC expressed displeasure with auto makers
inability to curb air pollution, it appears the government has planned
Rs.9000 crore sops to push eco-friendly cars. It’s offering incentives to those
scrapping petrol-fired or diesel-fired vehicles along with sops for investment to
manufacture parts such as motors in the country.
There are more incentives for cab aggregators and bus fleet owners to go
green. Adding support with infrastructure equipment, the government plans to
add at least one charging point every 9 sq km in all metros, million-plus cities
and selected smart cities. We believe most of the incentives will cover two and
three wheelers. PSR
Russia Report By Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant, Russia
Putin Announces Priority Fuel for Vehicles
Russian president Putin during the meeting with government
members stated that NG fuel in Russia should have a priority
on electric power. Putin said NG fuel has advantages in
economical and ecological aspects. Read The Article
PSR Analysis: Currently, NG fuel implementation in Russia is
restricted by the (very few OEMs use NG fuel) infrastructure
(lack of NG fuel stations), and legal (problems with certification) issues.
However, probably with the president involvement, the situation will change.
Rostech Will Fund New Owner for Tractor Plants
Transcomponent Holding will acquire Tractor Plants operation for an
undisclosed amount of money. Current debts of the OEM exceed 100 billion
rubles (US$ 1.6 billion). Rostech will survive as an OEM, using the State-
Private partnership funding mechanism.
Tractor shares will be sold to private investors, who will be required to
resolve the sales revenue problem, restructure the debt, and ensure efficient
functioning of the enterprise. Tractor Plants is a major manufacturer of
agriculture and construction machinery, including combines, dozers and
diesel engines.
The next stage planned is to split civil and military parts of the OEM.
Read The Article
Maxim
Sakov
© 2018 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK | 11
May 23, 2018
Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com
Click Here To Go To Page 1
COMPONENTS
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Many components are already included in our databases. If the ones you require are not, we may be able to identify them for you.
The Components & Consumables Module Directory provides a quick overview of components data available in our EnginLink™, OE Link™, CV Link™ and PartsLink™ proprietary databases.
The modules are not stand-alone products; they can be purchased only as part of a subscription/extract to one of the databases, EnginLink™, OE Link™, CV Link™ or PartsLink™.
Call today. +1 651. 905.8400, or email us at [email protected].
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We can help.
PSR Analysis: Here we see an example of the soft industry nationalization
going on in Russia. Rostech, a state-owned corporation, will be used to
prevent a private OEM filing for bankruptcy. Initial support will come from state
finances, and then ownership betransfered to a new controlling structure.
Russian New Car Sales Grow 18% in April
Sales of new passenger cars and LCV’s in Russia grew by 17.6% ol 152,400
vehicles. During the first four months of 2018, the market increased by 20.5%
to 545,300 vehicles. The leading OEM is still AutoVAZ with 17% growth. The
next ones are KIA and Hyundai. Read The Article
PSR Analysis: The market for PCs and LCVs continues its rebound from the
bottom in 2015. The stability of growth allows to make conclusion that it’s
beyond a temporary fluctuation. PSR
Meeting Your Information NeedsPower Systems Research has been providing world class business and
market intelligence on power equipment to industry leaders for more than 40
years. A comprehensive range of database products and strategic analysis
services is available to meet your planning needs. For more information, visit
us at www.powersys.com.
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• CV Link™ – Commercial Vehicle Production-Forecast Data
• OE Link™ – Original Equipment Production-Forecast Data
• OE Link-Sales™ – Original Equipment Sales-Forecast Data
• PartsLink™ – Engine and Original Equipment Population Data
• MarineLink™ – Boat Production and Engine Installation Data
• MarketTRACKER™ – Several individual quarterly syndicated survey
• PowerTRACKER™NA – North American gen-set syndicated surve
• Call Center - In-house calling capability for custom surveys
• Market Studies – Conducted more than proprietary 3,100 studies
• Component Modules – Special component packages w/databases
Russia ReportContinued from page 10