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Agenda Page 1459743-001.pptx Confidential and Proprietary Avolon Holdings Limited Tom Ashe – COO & Head of Risk Davy Transport & Logistics - June 2015

PowerPoint Presentation/media/Files/A/Avolon-IR/... ·  · 2015-06-24The Appendix to this presentation includes a reconciliation of adjusted net income, and ... undrawn fees, issuance

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Agenda

Page

1459743-001.pptx

Confidential and Proprietary

Avolon Holdings Limited

Tom Ashe – COO & Head of RiskDavy Transport & Logistics - June 2015

Avolon | Slide 2

Disclaimer Concerning Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Information

This document includes forward-looking statements, beliefs or opinions, including statements with respect to Avolon’s business, financial condition, results of operations and plans.

These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and all of which are based on our management’s

current beliefs and expectations about future events. Forward-looking statements are sometimes identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “believe,” “expects,”

“may,” “will,” “could,” “should,” “shall,” “risk,” “intends,” “estimates,” “aims,” “plans,” “predicts,” “continues,” “assumes,” “positioned” or “anticipates” or the negative thereof,

other variations thereon or comparable terminology or by discussions of strategy, plans, objectives, goals, future events or intentions. These forward-looking statements include all

matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements may and often do differ materially from actual results. No assurance can be given that such future results will be

achieved.

These risks, uncertainties and assumptions include, but are not limited to, the following: general economic and financial conditions; the financial condition of our lessees; our

ability to obtain additional capital to finance our growth and operations on attractive terms; decline in the value of our aircraft and market rates for leases; the loss of key

personnel; lessee defaults and attempts to repossess aircraft; our ability to regularly sell aircraft; our ability to successfully re-lease our existing aircraft and lease new aircraft; our

ability to negotiate and enter into profitable leases; periods of aircraft oversupply during which lease rates and aircraft values decline; changes in the appraised value of our

aircraft; changes in interest rates; competition from other aircraft lessors; and the limited number of aircraft and engine manufacturers. These and other important factors,

including those discussed under “Item 3. Key Information—Risk Factors” included in our Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on

March 3, 2015, may cause our actual events or results to differ materially from any future results, performances or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking

statements contained in this document. Such forward-looking statements contained in this document speak only as of the date of this document. We expressly disclaim any

obligation or undertaking to update these forward-looking statements contained in this document to reflect any change in our expectations or any change in events, conditions, or

circumstances on which such statements are based unless required to do so by applicable law.

The financial information included herein includes financial information that is not presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States

(“GAAP”), including adjusted net income and adjusted return on equity (“adjusted ROE”). The Appendix to this presentation includes a reconciliation of adjusted net income, and

adjusted ROE with the most directly comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP.

Avolon | Slide 3

Avolon at a Glance

TOP 3Independent Lessor

3.7% Cost of Funds4.5 year WAL

251 aircraftIncluding MAX, neo and 787-9 orders

1Independent lessor defined as any publicly traded aircraft lessor (including Avolon); Ranking determined by current and committed portfolio as of March 31, 20152As at March 31, 2015 and reflects owned, managed and committed portfolio3As at March 31, 20154Annualized Cost of Funds at March 31, 2015 does not include the effect of up front fees, undrawn fees, issuance cost amortization or fair value gains / losses on derivative financial instruments5As at March 31, 20156As of December 31, 2014, measured by current market value. Our estimates are based on the value opinions for our portfolio that we have received from independent aircraft appraisers, reports by industry analysts and data providers,news of similar aircraft sales and other assumptions. Although we believe our estimated values are based on reasonable assumptions and estimates, our estimates may not be indicative of the current or future market value of ourportfolio or of prices that we could achieve if we were to sell the portfolio

1

2.6 years7.1 year Average remaining Lease Term

$5.8bnOwned Fleet Net Book Value

$568m Embedded Value10.1% Premium to Net Book Value

$

2

4

24 yearsAverage experience of executive leadership

150+ airline relationshipsHeadquartered in Dublin with five global offices

6

3

5

Avolon | Slide 4

Q12014

Q1 2015

Change

Adjusted NetIncome1

Net Income

Commitments

46

36

4,871

62

49

6,976

+34%

+36%

+43%

Cost of Funds 4.25% 3.73% -52bps

Strong Growth and Disciplined Risk ManagementQ1 2015

STRONG GROWTH

1Non-GAAP measure. See slide 14

$ millions 2.6Average Fleet Age

7.1Lease Term Remaining

4.5Debt WAL

Match Funded

DISCIPLINED RISK MANAGEMENT

Avolon | Slide 5

Positive Near-term OutlookFLEET

VA

LUE

Traffic: +7% forecast in 2015

Load factors: ~80% globally

Utilization: +15% vs. 2003

Parked fleet: Post-recession low

Profits: $29bn forecast in 2015

Stable values & lease rates

Growing, efficient and profitable utilization of fleets and capacity

DEM

AN

D

Source: Boeing, IATA

Avolon | Slide 6

• Airlines will need 36,000 new aircraft,

valued at $3.5 trillion, over the next 20

years

16,000 deliveries in the next 10 years

• Lessor share of aircraft deliveries has

increased from 6% in 1984 to 40% in 2014

Share is expected to increase to 50% by 2020 (Boeing)

• Diverse lessor funding sources, with capital markets taking growing share

1 Source: Boeing

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020

Cash Capital Markets Bank Debt Export Credit Tax Equity

$115B$124B $125B

$132B$141B

Source: Boeing Capital

50%Lessor Share~40%

Average $130 bn funding requirement over next 4 years

Multiple funding choices, with leasing taking the dominant share

$522bn Delivery Funding Requirement to 2018

Avolon | Slide 7

Our Liability Management Strategy1

4.5year WAL

Match hedged

3:1 Net Debt:Equity

3.7% CoF3

$10bn Capital since 2010

$1.6bn Undrawn Debt2

1) Data as of 31 March 2015 unless otherwise stated2) $920m at end Q1 and $675m April 2015 new facility3) Annualised Cost of Funds at end of period does not include the effect of up-front fees, undrawn fees, issuance cost

amortization or fair value gains / losses on derivative financial instruments

Access to Liquidity

Stable Liability Profile

Optimal D:E / Cost of Funds

1

2

3

Avolon | Slide 8

Rising lease yields

Reduced funding cost

Widening net yield

Increasing ROE

Are the Returns Robust?

Financially Rational Competitive Dynamic Underpins Market Returns

1) Annualised Lease Yield - annualised lease revenue for flight equipment held at the end of each reporting period divided by the aggregate Net Book Value of flight equipment held at each reporting period

2) Interest Rate -annualised cost of debt as at the end of each period, does not include the effect of up front fees, undrawn fees, issuance cost amortization or fair value gains / losses on derivative financial instruments.

11.0%

3.8%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014

Annualised Lease Yield Interest Rate21

INCREASING YIELD

Avolon | Slide 9

Increasing Scale and Credit Profile

NET BOOK VALUE

3,5764,260

5,607 5,844

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015

$ millions

CAGR1 25% CAGR1 36%

326

450

606

176

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015

$ millions

REVENUE

61

11391

49

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015

$ millions

NET INCOME CAGR1 22%

73

125

179

620

100

200

2012 2013 2014 Q 1 2015

ADJUSTED NET INCOME2

$ millionsCAGR1 57%

1 CAGRs represent growth from 2012FY to 2014FY.2 Non-GAAP measure. See appendix for details.

Avolon | Slide 10

Five Essential Pillars for Success

Minimum scale requirement of $10bn – on BS1

and locked in growth

1

Multi-cycle management experience

2

Sustainable and efficient access to capital

3

Top 10 lessors account for 60% of delivered and committed fleet on operating lease

Founded & scaled two leading global lessors with a core focus on risk management

Recurring, long term relationships with OEMs2

4 5

Depth & quality of airline relationships

Repeat access to deep pools of liquidity with global capital markets & banks

20 year order history with Boeing & Airbus

Network of 150+ airline customers globally

1 Balance Sheet (BS)2 Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM)

Avolon | Slide 11

A320 NEO

A330 NEO

B737 MAX

B787-9$1.6bn undrawn debt

Adjusted ROE1 14.7% -15%ROE 12.8% - 13.1%

Positioned for Growth

FY 2015 Outlook Commitments3

Liquidity2

1 Non-GAAP measure. See appendix for details2 As of March 31, 2015. Includes $675m debt facility announced in April.3 For FY’15 Commitments include aircraft delivered in Q1 2015 and commitments as of 31 March 2015 for the remainder of 2015

$1.67bn in FY’15$900m in FY’16$4.9bn Orders:

APPENDIX

Avolon | Slide 13

Appendix 1 | Portfolioat March 31 2015

AIRCRAFT TYPE OWNED MANAGED COMMITTED TOTAL

A319 1 - - 1

A320ceo 46 3 18 67

A321ceo 9 1 9 19

A320neo - - 20 20

A330neo - - 15 15A330-200/300 10 - - 10

B737-800 55 3 16 74

B737 MAX - - 20 20

B787-8/9 2 - 10 12

Boeing B777-300ER 3 - - 3

B777-200LRF - 4 - 4E190 6 - - 6

132 11 108 251

Avolon | Slide 14

Appendix 2 | Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Income

Adjusted net income is a measure of both liquidity and operating performance that is not defined by GAAP and should not be considered as an alternative to net income, income from operations, net cash provided by operating activities, or any other liquidity or performance measure derived in accordance with GAAP. We use adjusted net income to assess our core operating performance on a consistent basis from period to period. In addition, adjusted net income helps us identify certain controllable expenses and make decisions designed to help us meet our near-term financial goals. Adjusted net income has important limitations as an analytical tool and should be considered in conjunction with, and not as substitutes for, our results as reported under GAAP.

$ thousands FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

Net Income 61,161 112,800 91,103 36,422 49,354

Amortization of debt issuance costs 9,457 18,766 24,277 5,711 5,626

Unrealized (gain) loss on derivatives

2,199 (6,390) 12,240 4,134 5,895

Share based compensation - - 53,733 - 1,555

Tax effect 268 (25) (2,359) (345) (726)

Adjusted net income 73,085 125,151 178,994 45,922 61,704

Avolon | Slide 15

Appendix 3 | Reconciliation of 2015 Adjusted ROE

% FY 2015 FY 2015

ROE outlook range 12.8% 13.1%

Amortization of debt issuance costs 1.4% 1.4%

Unrealized (gain) loss on derivatives - -

Share based compensation 0.6% 0.6%

Tax effect (0.1%) (0.1%)

Adjusted ROE outlook range 14.7% 15.0%

Avolon | Slide 16

Appendix 4 | Reconciliation of Net Debt to Equity

$ thousands Q1 2015

Debt Financing 4,632,542

Capital Lease Obligation 80,479

Total Debt 4,713,021

Cash and cash equivalents 137,437

Net Debt 4,575,584

Total shareholder’s equity 1,483,832

Debt to Equity 3.2

Net Debt to Equity 3.1

Net Debt to Equity is calculated as (Debt Financing + Capital Lease Obligation – Cash and cash equivalents) / Total shareholder’s equity