Power Generation demand supply outlook in India · Chattisgarh In Last 3 FYP approximately 50% of the capacity addition targets Report Series . ENINCON ... Thermal Generation power

ENINCON Energy & Infra Consulting

Power Generation demand supply outlook in India

December 2013

Copyright© 2013 ENINCON, All rights reserved

Outlook Report Series



Power Generation demand supply outlook in India| 2 Research Base

Exhibit 1: State-wise Present Installed Capacity (MW), Capacity Additions (MW) and Energy Shortages (%)

Source: ENINCON Research, 2013

ILLUSTRATIVE Access to affordable and uninterrupted power supply is a prerequisite for the growth of a nation. India is still perennially short of electric power. The country faces average energy and peak shortages to the extent of 12% and 11% respectively. In fact, deficit in power supply has emerged as the biggest infrastructure constraint in the country. Eleventh Five Year Plan (FYP) has set a target of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate averaging 9% per year. Insufficient power supply is just one of the issues plaguing the sector. Some of the other issues in the power sector include, high transmission and distribution losses, rising generating costs accompanied by eroding revenues due to pilferage, bad debts and supply of power at subsidized rates for the agricultural sector, etc.

-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Capacity Installed as of March 2010 (in MW)

Delhi

Haryana

Himachal Pradesh

Jammu & Kashmir

Punjab

Rajasthan

Uttar Pradesh

Uttarakhand

Chattisgarh

Gujarat

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Andhra Pradesh

Karnataka

Kerala

Tamilnadu

Bihar

Jharkhand

Orissa

Sikkim

West Bengal

Anrunachal Pradesh

Assam

Meghalaya

Tripura

Cluster B

Cluster A

Maharashtra Gujarat

Chattisgarh

In Last 3 FYP missed

approximately 50% of the

capacity addition targets




104 Giga Watts (GW) total capacity

addition to the slippage factor of

10% - 15%.

Research Case

Power Generation demand supply outlook in India | 3

Exhibit 2: Approach followed by ENINCON for generation scenario

Source: ENINCON Perspective, 2013

ILLUSTRATIVE

Hence, the total capacity addition was not subjected to a slippage factor, as apportioning slippage at the project level was not possible due to lack of sufficient information related to project level activity of these under-construction plants in Eleventh and Twelfth Plan and those that are announced but are still to initiate any significant execution work. However, ENINCON is definitely of the view that slippages in the capacity addition targeted in the Eleventh Plan and the first mid-term of the Twelfth Plan is inevitable. At least historic performance points towards that and, hence, we have subjected the 104 Giga Watts (GW) total capacity addition to the slippage factor of 10% - 15%. One could argue that 10% - 15% slippage is still a too optimistic estimate on the slippage factor perspective; however, given the performance of ~ 24 GW capacity additions between April 2007 and June 2010, which is more than the total capacity addition 21 GW achieved during the entire Tenth FYP, it’s a near realistic estimate.

Level 3: Likely Capacity additions by

Public Vs. Private Players By Regions

Level 2: Capacity likely to be added is classified into

Fuel Ownership Technology

Level 1: Taking Best Effort Scenario in Consideration

104 GW likely to be added by thermal and hydro projects




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delivering domain

knowledge, market

insights & future

outlook

ENINCON Research & Services

Framework

Research Reports

ENINCON Research

Desk

Business Stakeholders/Partici

pants

Experts Insights/ Market view

Validated data & analysis

Opportunity mapping

& Market sizing

First hand sector

knowledge & inputs

Gist of the report in .pdf format for

ready use

Free Author

support on report & Competitive

cost

Customized Research Solution

Primary research

inputs from F2F

interviews

ENINCON’S Research Difference

Germinates from minds that think fresh to evolve path finding guide for all stake holders through quality information & analyses

Emanates from seamless integration of domain expertise with first hand industry knowledge and customized research solutions at a very competitive cost

ENINCON’S Service Difference

ENINCON’s DIFFERENCE





Research Objective & Results

ENINCON Power generation

Series- Dishing

out the

conventional &

unconventional

ways for

Investing

in power

Generation

Power Generation Business in India: Taking a

Dip and Finding Out what’s happening on field viz. what is the opportunity

size for business stake holders? Who would be the biggest beneficiaries? Which are the prime states for development? What should be Government’s role? What are the potential challenges in development? etc.

Res

ear

ch O

bje

ctiv

e

Res

earc

h R

esu

lts

1. Thermal Power Generation market potential & sizing

2. Opportunity landscaping and sizing for entire Power Generation value chain

3. State attractiveness analysis for power generation development in India

4. Deciphering power bussiness economics in India

5. Analyzing best in class global practices that can be emulated in India

1. Exact market break-up for all stakeholders

2. Opportunity fragmentation for stakeholders to exploit in India

3. Identifying best fit States for Thermal Generation power plant development in India

4. Capex involved and its roadmap till 2015 in India for Offshore wind projects

5. Identifying best technologies and management practices

Exhibit 4: ENINCON Research Objective & Results

ILLUSTRATIVE


Power Generation demand supply outlook in India| 5



Key Queries Resolved

ENINCON

Business series –

Eliminating doubts and

presenting valuable

facts for business

Electrical equipment suppliers

• What is the market size & potential on offer for Electrical equipment suppliers?

• What will be the market share of domestic and foreign suppliers as per different scenarios?

EPC & Services

Providers

Govt. & Regulatory

Bodies/ Discoms

O&M, Ports, Shipping and Logistics provider

Project Developers &

Consultants

• What is the market size & potential on offer for EPC service providers?

• What are the major challenges in EPC services and how to overcome it?

• How capex and project execution time can be reduced in thermal power projects projects ?

• What are key regions and their attractiveness indices for developing thermal power projects in India?

• Who are the best technological solution providers for developing thermal power projects in India?

• What will be the different players involve in project development and what strategy should be adopted to reduce capex?

• What should be the incentive scheme and bidding mechanism adopted for thermal power projects?

• How will the discoms be benefitted by these projects?

• What is tune of business opportunity till 2015 in sight for BOP ?

• What will be market size and potential for O&M players?

• How other logistics medium can be benefitted by these projects?

Must buy for

Electrical equipment manufacturers Power Plant developers EPC Companies Electrical Equipment Providers Shipping Companies Vessel Contractors Discoms/Power off-takers/Other obligatory

agencies Power traders FII’s/Banks Project financers

Maritime boards Port Authorities O&M Players Transmission Service providers Logistics providers Railways Consultants Research firms Research Bodies/Institutes Industry associations BoP Service providers





Contents & Coverage

1. Executive Summary 2. Background

3. Approach and Methodology

4. Power Generation Capacity in India 4.1 Region Wise 4.2 State Wise 5. Power Generation Capacity Additions in 2015

6. Fuel-wise Break up of Power Generation Capacity Additions in 2015

7. Impact of Fuel Shift in Power Generation Capacity 7.1 Additions on Fuel Requirements Impact on Coal Requirements by

2015 7.2 Additions on Fuel Requirements Impact on Gas Requirements by

2015

8. Technology Shift in Power Generation Capacity Additions by 2015

9. Capacity Addition by 2015 9.1 Region-wise Capacity Addition by 2015 9.2 State-wise Capacity Addition by 2015 9.3 Owner-wise Capacity Additions by 2015

10. Top Players in 2015 10.1 Top Central Sector Players in 2015 10.2 Top State Utilities in 2015 10.3 Top Private Players in 2015 11. Capacity Addition by Merchant Players by 2015

12. Conclusion

13. Enincon Perspectives

14. Annexure





Annexure

Annex-I: Peak & Energy Shortages (1992-2010)

Annex-II: List of Projects already Commissioned with Chinese Equipment

Annex-III: List of Power Projects with Chinese Equipment for Commissioning in Eleventh FYP

Annex IV: List of Projects with Chinese Equipment for commissioning in the Twelfth FYP

Annex V: State-wise Installed Capacity (MW), March 31, 2010

Annex VI: State-wise Capacity Addition by 2015, MW

Annex VII: List of Under Construction thermal projects for likely benefits during Twelfth FYP

Annexure VIII: List of Power Projects expected to get Commissioned by 2015

Annexure IX: Under-Execution Project Portfolio of Top Five Private Players

Annex X: Research Methodology



Documents

Power Generation demand supply outlook in India · Chattisgarh In Last 3 FYP approximately 50% of the capacity addition targets Report Series . ENINCON ... Thermal Generation power